DrumBeat: December 2, 2007


It's time to face peak oil

Health care is Pittsburgh's economic anchor, employing thousands in hospitals, research units, clinics and related facilities. As goes the medical industry, so goes Pittsburgh.

Medical executives center their attention on "cost, quality and coverage" while considering rising energy prices, especially oil, a minor concern. This is a colossal misjudgment of medicine's dependence on fossil fuels and the fact that the "hydrocarbon era" is entering its final stages.

KazMunaiGaz May Raise Stake in Kashagan to Equal Eni

KazMunaiGaz National Co. said a proposal to raise its stake in the Kashagan venture was accepted by most of its partners, a step toward resolving disputes over developing the world's biggest oil discovery in three decades.


Housing Crisis? Try Mobile McMansions

In fact, though, things are not really, really great in R.V. land. Sales are slipping. Winnebago announced during the show that its revenue was falling for the first time in six years. And the industry association released updated projections indicating that industrywide sales would probably decline 4.8 percent next year compared with 2007.

It’s easy to see why sales are off. With an uncertain economy, tightening credit and gas prices through the roof, many would-be captains of land yachts are rethinking their dreams. Other issues also loom in a world increasingly worried about waste, sustainability and global warming. It might be getting harder to love a beast that gulps a gallon of fuel every seven miles.


Record gas prices on the way

Canadian drivers should brace themselves for record gasoline prices this spring if crude oil stays in the $90-a-barrel range, experts say.

"They could be getting into the $1.30, $1.40, maybe even the $1.50 range per litre," said Jason Toews, one of the founders of GasBuddy.com, a website designed to help motorists find the best deals at the pump.


San Francisco Fleet Is All Biodiesel

Claiming it now has the largest green fleet in the nation, the city of San Francisco this week completed a yearlong project to convert its entire array of diesel vehicles — from ambulances to street sweepers — to biodiesel, a clean-burning and renewable fuel that holds promise for helping to reduce greenhouse gases.


Venezuela sees 2008 oil price near $100 per barrel

Venezuela expects 2008 global oil prices will remain similar to the record prices seen this year, oil minister Rafael Ramirez said on Sunday.

"We expect that the (global) market will maintain the same prices that we have seen this year," Ramirez told reporters.

"Probably, if there is no geopolitical tension like what we have seen recently, prices should be around $100 per barrel," he said. "We believe this shows there have been structural changes in the market."

Nonstop Theft and Bribery Are Staggering Iraq

Jobless men pay $500 bribes to join the police. Families build houses illegally on government land, carwashes steal water from public pipes, and nearly everything the government buys or sells can now be found on the black market.

Painkillers for cancer (from the Ministry of Health) cost $80 for a few capsules; electricity meters (from the Ministry of Electricity) go for $200 each, and even third-grade textbooks (stolen from the Ministry of Education) must be bought at bookstores for three times what schools once charged.


Weird science From the White House

But do, please, pay attention to the ghosts this White House put into the machine. The loyal Bushies have found countless ways of silencing or undercutting researchers whose findings run counter to Bush-Cheney politics. They have manipulated data on food safety, weather, climate change, health, conservation and more.


Oil and gas production have Kansans pumped

Surging crude prices — nearly $100 a barrel on the world market — continue to build interest in modest-producing oil wells that canvass Kansas. Drilling for a nontraditional natural gas — coal bed methane — is booming in southeast Kansas.


Oregon geologist puts hope in mining methane gas

In the wooded hills south of Coos Bay, Steve Pappajohn points to a rich black seam in a cutaway hillside. Coal.

That and a capped well represent his hopes that hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of fuel--not coal, but methane gas--could be deep below, trapped by water in the coal beds.


Sri Lanka's Iranian financed refinery may take five years: official

Sri Lanka's plans to double its refinery capacity, which were dealt a severe blow after politicians fixed fuel prices last August, would take off with Iranian help in 2008, officials said.


More petrol woes for motorists

A temporary fuel shortage is looming ahead of the petrol price hike on Wednesday, with suppliers warning some orders may be short or delivered late.


Companies squeezing power from sun, deserts in Southern California

The plant runs on hot water, pumped from deep underground and flashed into steam to turn turbines. With 10 generators near the lakeshore, the facility produces enough electricity for 255,000 homes, and the company that owns it wants to expand. Other companies are drilling nearby, hoping to build their own geothermal plants.


Govt to reap $5.6b carbon trade windfall

The government stands to reap up to $5.6 billion in extra revenue from the introduction of an emissions trading system, official figures show. And power generating companies could pocket net windfall gains of another $2b during 2010-2015.


The tipping point

We don’t know how fast the change would occur, nor the temperature that could change the biota of the planet.

Are we then at the tipping point, as Ban Ki Moon said? Yes. Despite the uncertainties, we’ve no choice but to accept that we are at the edge of disaster.


Limited Biofuel Feedstock Supply?

The United States has embarked on an ambitious program to develop technology and infrastructure to economically and sustainably produce ethanol from biomass. Corn stover, the above-ground material left in fields after corn grain harvest, has been identified as a primary feedstock. Stover and other crop biomass or residue is frequently referred to as "trash" or a waste, implying it has minimal value.

However, when returned to the land, this carbon-rich material helps control erosion, replenishes soil organic matter, and improves soil quality. Organic matter in the soil retains and recycles nutrients and improves soil structure, aeration, and water exchange characteristics. In addition, organic matter is the energy source for the soil ecosystem.


Africa Looks Toward Biofuels Amid Doubts Over Yields

Jatropha, a shrub used for decades in Africa as a natural fence between crops, has been hyped in the media as a biofuel, but he says it is too early to tell.

"From what I have heard there was very little knowledge about jatropha in terms of the behavior of the plant, the plantation level and so on, how the pests respond, [and] if you grow it at scale," he explained. "So the people we talked to who were actually into jatropha gave us the impression that they were going down this road, they were seeing an opportunity, but they themselves were not quite sure of what the yields would be like."


OPEC would raise output if market needed - Algeria

OPEC would increase output if there would otherwise not be enough oil to satisfy market demand, Algeria's Oil and Mining Minister Chakib Khelil said on Sunday.

"Stocks are high. If there is real demand and not enough supply, we will increase," Khelil told reporters when asked whether OPEC might decide to increase production when it meets at Abu Dhabi on Wednesday.

"It is possible. We will analyse the market and see if there is a real demand," he said, but added: "OPEC is not going to raise output unless there is a need in the market."


State legislator eases into debate

State Rep. Terry Backer, D-Stratford, is passionate about two things - protecting Long Island Sound and weaning the state off its dependency on foreign oil.

Those two passions have made it difficult for Backer to wade into the ongoing debate over building a liquefied natural gas platform in the middle of Long Island Sound.


Oil decline pressing Vermonters now

The United States responded to the 1973 oil crisis in many ways, including gasoline rationing, a 55 mph national speed limit and a year-round daylight-savings time. If oil production really has peaked and is entering a permanent decline, shortages like those of 1973 may be around the corner. How are we prepared to respond?

The short answer is that we aren't, either at the federal or the state level. The U.S. Government Accountability Office concluded in a report earlier this year, "… there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the … timing (of peak oil) or mitigating its consequences."


Surfing the ultimate peak

To the surfer’s eye, the drop from Hubbert’s peak on the graph may not look too gnarly, but the relatively sudden reversal from global oil production growth to contraction is likely to produce a potentially devastating economic crisis, with soaring oil prices followed by deep recession. For a surf industry based on hydrocarbons in general and petrochemicals in particular, peak oil could still come to feel like taking a beating at Mavericks.


The limits of 21st-century revolutions

An oil-rich country bent on humbling the United States is an instructive place from which to view the world, so here are eight rules of modern political life as seen from President Hugo Chávez's Venezuela...


HNN Podcast: The Golden Compass & The Geography of Nowhere

Summary: In this month's audio podcast Humanist Network News interviews author Philip Pullman about the religious protest of The Golden Compass, a new film based on his fantasy novel. Also, suburban sprawl critic James Howard Kunstler speaks to HNN about how and why Americans need to re-think the spaces they inhabit.


Africa urged to avoid morning-after oil hangover

Oil-rich countries in Africa must resist the temptation to splurge their revenue from black gold if they want to avoid a hangover when supplies run dry, experts said at a conference in South Africa.


Oil's well despite threat of $100 a barrel price tag

SHOULD we be worried about high oil prices? Two of the worst world recessions in the past 35 years, those of 1973 and 1979, were the result of a sharp leap in the price of oil.


Pakistan: Gap between local oil production and demand surging

The production gap of local refineries is being widened to bridge the thriving demand of petroleum products, surging imports of these products and import bill of the country.


Shanghai in free fall as oil giant plummets

The newly floated oil giant PetroChina has lost a third of a trillion dollars in nominal value in just three weeks, plummeting to a fresh low yesterday as angst gripped the Shanghai stock market.


Oil Scrooge boosts costs for shipping

The same oil price increases that have sent gasoline over $3 a gallon again and heating oil to record highs will make it more expensive this year to mail those dried fruitcakes, loud ties and other holiday gifts.

The 40 percent increase in crude oil prices since August has led to higher fuel surcharges by the major package delivery companies, who said the costs of jet fuel for their planes and diesel fuel for trucks have soared.


Green jobs are the wave of the future

We stand at the cusp of a new clean energy economy. Climate change and peak oil are twin crises that will have tragic and disorienting consequences as they play out. However, solving these crises creates an enormous opportunity, and thousands of jobs will be generated in coming years as our economic and political systems adjust to the new realities.


Iran's use of oil weapon cuts two ways

Oil remains near historic heights. And jittery markets jump at any sign that supplies could grow tighter, spiking at every hint of new tensions over Tehran's nuclear defiance.

But recent increases pale compared with the once-unthinkable levels that could be reached — experts speak of up to $200 a barrel — if Washington and Tehran move toward open conflict.


Won't Support Output Increase - Libya Oil Head

"Libya will not support an increase," head of Libyan oil policy and chief executive of Libya's National Oil Co. Shokri Ghanem told Dow Jones Newswires in an exclusive interview in Qatar's capital Doha.

The oil price is "deteriorating despite the fact that there is a cut in supply in Canada and the winter is starting," Ghanem said.


China, Japan pledge economic cooperation

China and Japan amicably wrapped up their first high-level trade and economic talks on Sunday by pledging greater overall cooperation — but left the touchy issue of gas exploration in the East China Sea unresolved.


Iran starts transporting largest oil platform in Persian Gulf

The offshore transportation of processing platform of Salman oilfield, the largest oil topside in the Persian Gulf, started on Sadra Island, southern Iran.

The Khouf Production Platform (KPP) processing topside, the main one of Salman oil and gas field, and a linking bridge are transferred to Bushehr, southern Iran.


Employee missing after fire breaks out at Twin Cities refinery

An employee was missing after a fire broke out in a fuel oil tank at the Marathon Petroleum Co. refinery in this Twin Cities suburb on Saturday morning, company officials said.


Bali talks to seek global climate deal in 2009

Delegates from about 190 nations gathered in Bali on Sunday to try to build on a "fragile understanding" that the fight against global warming needs to be expanded to all countries with a deal in 2009.

Greetings, fellow Oil Drummers. I haven‘t been reading or posting here for some months, but I would like to briefly post about a conference I attended in London from November 22 to 26 – The International Awards for Liveable Communities ( http://www.livcomawards.com/ ). My apologies, if this is not the appropriate place for such a posting.

Cities and projects compete for bragging rights, but the real point of the annual event is to promote networking and the spread of best practices for making communities of all sizes more liveable and sustainable. The United Nations Environment Programme ( http://www.unep.org/ ) has long had a relationship with LivCom, as the organizers call it, and at this latest conference the UNEP signed a memorandum to make the relationship even closer.

What does this have to do with Peak Oil? I observed 16 one-hour-long presentations by communities ranging in size from 800 to 4.2 million residents, located in a variety of climates – Iceland, Saudi Arabia, southern China, Canada, northern and southern U.S., South Africa, and Europe (Ireland, England, Belgium, Czech Republic, Lithuania). I did not hear or see the phrase Peak Oil in any presentation. Saving energy and minimizing impacts on the local environment were frequently discussed, but Peak Oil was not an issue. A caveat: there were many other presentations of cities and projects that I could not attend, so it is quite possible that Peak Oil was in fact discussed at some point.

As the only person in my community‘s delegation that spoke English freely, I explicitly sought to speak with as many other participants as possible. I took the opportunity to conduct an extremely unscientific poll, asking about awareness of Peak Oil. Those familiar with the subject included a German (who indicated that in his professional circle, it is readily acknowledged that we passed the peak some undetermined time ago), a Swede, a Frenchman, a Canadian (whose community relies on oil-and-gas E&P), and a Saudi (who did not know the term Peak Oil in English, but clearly understood all the concepts on which it is based and their implications). Those unfamiliar with Peak Oil included the Icelanders, the English, the Irish, those from the Czech Republic, the Chinese, and the Americans. The ignorant Americans included two mayors and, interestingly, a vice-president of a major electric utility in the southern U.S.

The six categories according to which cities were judged included: Enhancement of the Landscape, Heritage Management, Environmentally Sensitive Practices, Community Sustainability, Healthy Lifestyles, and Planning for the Future. I suspect most regular participants in TOD would be able to comment intelligently on all of these areas from a Peak Oil perspective. The absence of explicit references to Peak Oil was most interesting, and somewhat disturbing.

On a personal note, I came away from the conference with a heightened sense of responsibility. I have been aware of Peak Oil for 6 years now, but only recently have I felt confident enough to begin to speak with people about it, soberly and proactively. Here in Lithuania, we waste tremendous resources – our multi-resident housing requires 3 times more energy than equivalent housing in Sweden, for example. The mechanisms to change that are already in place: a block of flats (apartments) can be renovated with 50% of expenses paid by the national government, and 10% paid by the municipal government. And yet, in my town of 32,000 residents, only 2 (count ‘em, 2) multi-resident houses have been renovated, and three more are in the process of being renovated. People here argue that pensioners on average receive a pension of only 180 euros a month (that‘s 270 U.S. dollars), so it‘s unreasonable to expect agreement on a renovation that costs anything more than zero. I never bought that argument, and I don‘t buy it now. The key, of course, is to make more renovations happen. I will do my best.

Oh, and how did my community fare? Utena came away with a silver rating. Not bad, for a first try.

I recently sent some links to my immediate family who live in Germany and Brazil to emphasize some of my concerns about what I have been reading here on The Oil Drum, I also sent some information from RealClimate.org abot climate change and some information about about the impending financial crisis here in the USA. Their response was to ignore my requests for a dialog about these issues and to take my information as a personal attack on their lifestyles, I'm talking my mother, two brothers and a sister. I have since found myself to be engaged in serious damage control over my original intent which was to raise awareness and open a dialog over what is happening in the world. If this is the response of my closest loved ones to this kind of attempt at consciousness raising it certainly underscores the difficulty with raising public awareness in general. Let alone effect public policy which by definition goes against the established status quo. Not an easy road ahead for those who see the writing on the wall and want to start the paradigm shift which is necessary. However there are certainly isolated islands of hope in the world. This was posted recently here on the OilDrum http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/features/article_1377844.php/D...
Good luck to the courageous few who are doing their best like yourself. Cheers!

Be careful when starting a conversation with foreigners. It is too easy for an american to be perceived as arrogant or hypocrite when talking about energy or pollution.

Remember that colectively you are the biggest polluter in the world, and that both countries have a much more varied energy sector than your.

There is only one option, in my opinion. Reduce personal consumption, and don't make an issue of it. Everyone looks like a hypocrite to someone who has less.

Preaching is not what we need to do.

No one was preaching. The original poster was simply trying to open a dialog - you know, start a conversation. With his family no less.

My own experience trying to start such a conversation was not quite as bad, but also wholly unsuccessful in the end.

My personal experience is that anything I say to my family that they haven't already thought of is preaching.

They are all too educated, I guess

Do you happen to live in the Pacific Northwest ?

Most people I talk to say AHH technology will save us supply and demand.

They think I am crazy for building a system to be self sustaning. But yet when things go sour who are going to call? Ghost busters? I think not.. it will be the crazy one.

Marcos, I was born in Brazil of Hungarian ancestry and am a US citizen. My family is quite a mix of many nationalities so I'm not quite sure what you mean by starting a conversation with foreigners? I don't think that I could easily be categorized as the typical ugly American preaching to those less privileged than myself because they live somewhere other than where I do. Anyways at this point I think these issues are global so we are all in the same boat. BTW the gist of my attempt at opening a dialog was more along the lines of "Are we at the point where we need a backup plan or not?" It didn't go over too well.

FMagyar,

Sorry if this sounds insensative, or personally intrusive, so perhaps I should appologies right here. But, I wonder, what was your relationship like with your family before you confronted them with the realities of the world? Perhaps they are reacting not so much to the information you are presenting, but to you personally? Maybe they think, we haven't heard from him for months and suddenly he's sending us this! But of course you know your family beter than I do.

On the other hand you could be, are probably, correct. Are people ready for so much reality, no matter how well meant? Our lifestyles are comfortable and effortless. Do we really want to think about where the electricity, the heat, food, and petrol really come from? Don't most of us just want to flick a switch and enjoy the benefits without recourse to thought? Perhaps we have evolved a thoughtless society? A citizenship based not on engagement, but on the ability to consume. It's not so much "I think, therefore I am" but rather "I consume, therefore I am". If this is true, then we face many challanges ahead.

confronted them with the realities of the world?

There's a lot of good ways to start a conversation about an important matter; "I'm confronting you with the realities of the world" is not one of them.

Not saying the original poster was doing that; just saying communication difficulties can arise on either end, and it's something that can be tricky. It's verrry important not to sound accusatory. (FWIW)

Fair enough, since I posted publicly about my personal life I accept your comments and there is no need to apologize. My relationship with my family is actually quite good and we do communicate quite regularly notwithstanding the impression I may have given. Even my attempt at raising my concerns will most certainly not cause them to disown me completely, granted I may now have the permanent reputation as wacky one, that's all fine. BTW as may be apparent from my comment my family has a more global perspective than most US residents and I could say they are quite worldly and rather well educated. One comment that struck me the most was "what are you talking about there is nothing to indicate a major crisis over here" This was from a sibling who lives in Germany. I asked her to listen to Albert Barlett's lecture about Arithmetic, Population and Energy http://globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461
I Think you are close to the mark with this comment:"Are people ready for so much reality, no matter how well meant?"
My conclusion is obviously not. Cheers!

Just a quick note - the German relative is living in a country with essentially zero population growth, with active programs to develop alternative energy sources while reducing energy use, where 'bio' (organic) produce is becoming increasingly common in all retail outlets (partially due to Green policies when they were in power), where rail and community transit is efficient and widespread, where towns are walkable, where most people own a bike, after having learned in elementary school how to ride a bike in traffic....

Quite honestly, the list goes on. The German automobile industry may be in for some major problems, along with the German economy in general, but 'crisis' is simply not the right term to apply for a typical German - including the fact that most Germans are very aware of the points you likely raised, in not necessarily in the terms you may have used.

Right I'm quite aware of all that. I was trying to make her aware that the reality in the US is a bit different than what it is in Germany, maybe I was naive but I still think that the US is heading into a crisis situation. BTW She is a native born American raised in Brazil and has lived in Europe for over 20 years. She also travels extensively around the world due to her job.

I still drop references to my family about peak oil and climate change, but in a carefully casual, conversational way.

I am not the one to persuade them of anything -- they are mostly into the typical American middle class lifestyle, and will need experiences and people other than myself to create a teachable moment.

understanding this makes it a bit easier for me to maintain relationships with them.

It sure can be frustrating to communicate information and find yourself completely misunderstood. Often a bit of time and some reassurance on your part that you love and accept them can help to mend any rift.

Even so, it is a burden to be unable to converse about the most important information and analysis that one is aware of with those one loves the most.

yes, beggar....

I have had some success with the slow build up, or the bob and weave.

Mention something that was in the paper, make predictions of gas prices which will turn out to be correct, get the person to think about at their bills; go along with current memes or fashion, implying it is important to act green, without explaining why, etc. If they have kids, ask them if they think their kids will be able to afford a car, etc. At some point, though it has to be tied together, and that either works or not -some ppl are congenital cornucopists or so wired into the technotopia they have diffused whatever they had for brains. And some just don’t give a flying not-doughnut. Don’t hesitate to adopt expert status or a savvy position even if it is dismally lacking. With (some) family and friends, personal status and genuine concern will have more clout than ‘weirdo’ websites.

"what are you talking about there is nothing to indicate a major crisis over here" (magyar at 8.40) The arrogance of some Europeans is insufferable. That is not a criticism of Magyar’s relative as a person (for all the obvious reasons) but merely my kick against an isolationist attitude that ignores ‘new colonialism’, globalization, starving Africa, energy wars, and the ‘real’ numbers. I meet plenty of it and it drives me bananas.

Welcome back Balticman...I raise a glass of Utenos to your conference reporting and efforts in Lithuania...sveikata!!

BTW...My family is going to the Kansas City area's Lithuanians of America Christmas party this afternoon...Father Xmas, dancing (my wife and I are in the folk dancing group), kucios, more food, more drink...the usual when Lithuanians gather.

Iki

Congratulations for your efforts ! I would appreciate some of the developments and strategies done by your city and others to enhance livable cities. Perhaps a Guest Post ?

Also, I did not see which Icelandic city presented.

Best Hopes for Livable Cities,

Alan

There really is a wealth of real-world, hands-on examples out there. I feel privileged to have been able to attend. The LivCom site has a nice feature -- a quick summary of each day's best presentations. In addition, the presentations themselves were recorded. I haven't checked to see if they are downloadable, yet. If no other Oil Drummer was in attendance, I really should work up at least a brief guest post. I'm certainly not qualified as an urban planning expert, but some of the best-practice examples I saw were thought-provoking and inspiring.

If memory serves, the Icelanders were from a place adjacent to Reykjavik, called Gardabaer (without the Icelandic phonetic marks). After much planning, a community for some 7,000 residents is being built, making clever use of siting to maximize solar exposure and minimize wind exposure, for example.

Oh , come on guys, we are supposed to be your fwends:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article29826...

US retains right to kidnap British Citizens...

You are either with us or against us - and if that means you are opposed to the kdnapping of British citizens, you are clearly against the U.S.

International law? Who needs it, with its bothersome restrictions against torture? Or invading other nations for resources. Yes, Hugo, that means you - threatening vital American interests by not selling oil to the U.S. the way that the free market intends.

Friends? The U.S. doesn't have friends, it only has pre-emptive targets. After all, the world is a dangerous place when America is only spending 50% of the world's total expenditures on weaponry.

What the Bush administration has been throwing away will never be replaced - and that is something which most Americans are either utterly ignorant about, or gleefully chortling over, as finally, the U.S. is ignoring the opinions of the petty and envious. I'm not sure which group disturbs me more.

Hmmm, sarconol...

The scary thing, though, is that there really are people who think like that. And some of them aren't in government.

AKH

Turnabout is fair play, I guess:

During the wars with France (1793 to 1815), the Royal Navy aggressively reclaimed British deserters on board ships of other nations, both by halting and searching merchant ships, and in many cases, by searching American port cities. The Royal Navy did not recognize naturalized American citizenship, treating anyone born a British subject as still "British" — as a result, the Royal Navy impressed over 6,000 sailors who were claimed as American citizens, as well as British subjects. While not directly mentioned as a reason for the declaration of war in the War of 1812, impressment certainly caused serious diplomatic tension and helped to turn American public opinion against Britain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impressment

The "war on terror" is war on all.

And do you know what President Thomas Jefferson's answer to this problem was? The Embargo Act of 1807 - fascinating reading at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embargo_Act_of_1807

Admittedly, it failed, but then, the author was an objective terrorist in the eyes of the nation doing the impressing, which was just doing whatever it wanted, being the world's leading naval power. And it was all legal according to British law, of course.

The same way, decades later, the Royal Navy began to disrupt American ships sailing from Africa, carrying their freely bought cargoes of slaves. 'The spread of Britain’s web of anti-slavery treaties and the vigilance of the Royal Navy gradually drove one nation after another out of the slave trade, until by 1858 the British squadron was reporting 22 out of 23 slave ships captured as being American.'
http://www.royal-navy.mod.uk/server/show/nav.5935

Sometimes, it is pretty easy to tell what is civilized and what is not civilized behavior. Legality is often secondary in that distinction.

(Edit - side note for Pitt the Elder - calling Jefferson a terrorist is at least allowable - both for his support of the French Revolution, and because of such quotes as "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." Of course, a case can be made that Jefferson was a freedom fighter, not a terrorist, but in the America of today, that is an empty distinction, as one term is generally considered an euphemism for the other in such places as Iraq, Afghanistan, or wherever American military forces are engaged in combat to support democracy.)

expat,
An excellent example of cacophemism, calling Jefferson a terrorist. I'd add slave-rapist, too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cacophemism

No, Jefferson was not a slave-rapist - as slaves were his property, he could do with them as he wished. However, he apparently did commit the crime of miscenegation - which in the commonwealth we both born in, was a crime until until 1967, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a person with one race in their birth certificate could marry another person with another race in their birth certificate.

However, thanks for the new term - but I don't think George III would have any problem at all with my usage, though traitor would likely have been higher on his list of words. I do believe many things are a matter of perspective.

calling Jefferson a terrorist is at least allowable - both for his support of the French Revolution, and because of such quotes as "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

Neither of those demonstrate an intent to sow terror; hence, "terrorism" is not an apt description.

If you want to accuse Jefferson of terrorism, you'd have much better luck trying to tie him to the treatment of the Loyalists, who were simply Americans who remained loyal to the British:

"By July 4, 1776, the patriots controlled virtually all of the territory and population of the 13 states, and demanded that no resident show loyalty to a foreign power. Doing so could result in being tarred and feathered, which often killed the loyalists."

And do you know what President Thomas Jefferson's answer to this problem was? The Embargo Act of 1807....the author was an objective terrorist in the eyes of the nation doing the impressing

Let's take a look at the Act:

"1) American vessels were prohibited from landing in any foreign port unless specifically authorized by the president himself.

2) Trading vessels were now required to post a bond of guarantee equal to the value of both the ship itself and its cargo, in order to insure compliance with the law."

That's a very strange definition of "terrorism" you're using. You could call it "economic warfare", but it's simply ridiculous to equate all forms of force or violence with "terrorism".

I'm sorry about the confusion - the Embargo Act most certainly was not a terrorist answer to a state acting in a lawless way against a weaker state.

The problem is mine - Jesus most certainly was not a terrorist, and quite honestly, the real Pitt the Elder would have been very unlikely to call Jefferson one either. But by that time, Pitt the Elder was a very isolated figure in British politics, and his beliefs about the future of America, and the reasons for the American Revolution, were easily ignored.

The point, which I tried to make very badly, is that Jefferson can be easily fitted into any number of contradictory policies. Though much of Jefferson's writing may seem as revolutionary in today's America as it did at the time of its writing, there are certainly other acts of Jefferson's presidency which would be seen as threatening to America's security in today's perspective - such as Jefferson allowing the Alien and Sedition Acts to lapse during his term in office. I honestly do not expect the PATRIOT Act(s) to expire in my life time, as some of those goals, should as monitoring what citizens read, has been a goal of various government bodies over decades.

However, a quote from Jefferson in terms of the Jacobins -
'In the struggle which was necessary, many guilty persons fell without the forms of trial, and with them some innocent. These I deplore as much as any body, and shall deplore some of them to the day of my death. But I deplore them as I should have done had they fallen in battle. It was necessary to use the arm of the people, a machine not quite so blind as balls and bombs, but blind to a certain degree....The liberty of the whole earth was depending on the issue of the contest, and was ever such a prize won with so little innocent blood? My own affections have been deeply wounded by some of the martyrs to this cause, but rather than it should have failed, I would have seen half the earth desolated. Were there but an Adam and an Eve left in every country, and left free, it would be better than as it now is.'
From http://chnm.gmu.edu/revolution/d/592/

Anyone who supports violent revolution (Gandhi was no more a terrorist than Jesus) is supporting terrorism, if not actively advocating it - because that is how revolutions work, at least until after Jefferson's time. That we paper over that fact does not make it less true. Jefferson, at least rhetorically, was willing to see half the earth desolated in the pursuit of freedom for those who remained, if only one man and one woman. One can be blinded by any ideal.

and all other citizens of all other countries as well. It is often called extraordinary rendition.

I haven't posted for nearly a week, hard to keep up on reading everything here and at Energy Bulletin in articles and threads really and sometimes just nothing comes to mind. Anyway as Russian parliamentary elections are today and tensions are increasinga nd relationships with the west are not particularly good and in light of my WWIII speculation posts from last week I would like to add some historical correlations to explain waht I think has brought about the current situation between Russia and The West.

I once read a book about the negotiations for peace after WWI and Clemenceau was an embittered old man who wanted revenge on Germany for everything, Franco-Prussian war, etc. So in the end impossible reparations were imposed and control over Rheinland which all led to very bad blood and the forced hyperinflation to get rid of the debts leading to WWII. the lesson being quite clear, hate brings hate, a spiral of violence ensues. Anyway the US learnt from this mistake and took a fair hand after the war, live and let live attiutde let democracy flourish. Forgiveness brings peace.

The attitude after the end of the cold war was in the public generally presumed to have been that following WWII which would have promoted a long lasting peace and true democracy in Russia instead of the managed democracy intended to inhibit undue foreign influece(total takeover of everything by straw men or directly). Instead we have had vulture type aggressive attitude on the part of US interests like PNAC, corporations trying to control everything by way of semicriminal supperrich (khodorkovsky, et. al.) and by fomenting color revolutions everywhere. Luckily for the USA Yeltsin was an easily manipulated alcoholic with a big ego so it all worked out fine at first.

Of course then Putin came and he is one fine KGB agent with experience abroad, bilingual, physically and psychologically fit and stable with a masterful control of politics through his expereince in the early Russian democracy in St.Petersburg. At first he was ok with Washington in post 9/11 situation but learned gradually how cynical Bush/Cheney neoimperialsits really were. Frankly speaking he would never had been so popular without such high oil prices allowing stable finances in Russia and general prosperity.

So a general comparison to the interwar(1919-1939) period could be made with a lost war (WWI/cold war)then an unstable democracy followed by a managed democracy (Weimar Republic/Hitler => Yeltsin/Putin) leading into a direct war between the two superpowers over strategic interests just like WWII. The instability of the 20 year interwar period with a 10 year global depression with lots of politcal maneuvering in Europe is fairly similar to now(subprime/PO credit crisis depression presumed to start soon?) with lots of bad blood between the former enemies (US/Russia) just as between earlier enemies(Russia/France/Germany).

On the Asian side the Japanese wanted in on the imperial game that the Europeans had started had started with their expansion in Manchuria in the 20s which just kept growing. The Chinese are now the expansionist power in Asia and we can only imagine how that will go. They are verywhere in Africa, Asustralia, Canada, USA, etc. trying to buy up resources and control things generally. Taiwan is still unresolved.

There are just too many parallels to the two interwar periods. The Japanese have shown too little remorse to the Chinese of ocurse but the Americans are the real problem on that side as well.

As Russia and China are continental powers it can be presumed that in the case of a war against the West they will not be hindered in connecting with one another for direct economic and military assistance as Japan and Germany were in WWII but if they win and take the oil prize in the gulf then who will be the junior partner? Will Russia be looking down the end of the gun barrel and thinking of the bad years under the Khans?

Galacticsurfer, dude, you are one cheery optimist aren't you?

Hi Galacticsurfer,

The best thing I read about Putin and Russia's relationship with the west can be found in 'Losing Russia' by Dimitri Simes in the current Nov/Dec edition of Foreign Affairs. A summary is available at www.foreignaffairs.org

Basically the US and Europe screwed up through arrogance and ignorance. The Russian response has been quite reasonable in comparison. All the talk in the media is unhelpful and ill informed. Like they want to ring fence Russia but not it's gas and oil exports - duh.

Politicians everywhere basically don't know what they are doing, and that's true of China and Japan as the US. What are they trying to do, bury their best customers? If the US can't fund its trade deficit then China WILL lose it's surplus.

Take all the countries with a current account surplus (China, Japan, OPEC middle east etc.). Then take all the countries with a current account deficit (US, UK, Australia etc.). The two totals MUST balance. It's also why I dismiss talk of oil at $350/bbl or whatever. It's unaffordable, period.