DrumBeat: December 3, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 3, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Analysis: Energy report, fact or fantasy?
A few months after the release of a prominent energy report, some experts say its recommendations possess minimal potential for solving the world's energy woes, while others wish Congress would adopt its comprehensive approach.The National Petroleum Council, an advisory committee for the U.S. Department of Energy, released its 380-page report, "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," in late July. The report received applause from diverse sectors, including many in industry, government and the media, for its recommendations on how to quench the world's insatiable thirst for energy as demand continues to rise.
...However, some experts say the report pushes proposals that will lead to harmful outcomes, not positive results. Included in this group is Jerry Taylor, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that hosted a panel discussion and analysis of the report this week.
Saudi Arabia sits tight ahead of OPEC meet
Saudi Arabia said here Monday it was "very premature" to indicate whether OPEC would boost oil supplies or maintain current production levels when it holds a crucial output meeting this week.
Record Oil Prices… Facts and Reasons
But of course, these increases in production did not rein in prices. Turkish threats to invade northern Iraq caused prices to rise to record levels. As in the case in such situations, industrial countries continued to complain that OPEC's production increase was insufficient to halt the rise, but without determining the desired increase, despite the studies and statistics available from the International Energy Agency.
Behind Chavez's Defeat in Venezuela
Voters' surprise rejection of the President's constitutional reforms may mean more stability for business and the economy in the oil-rich nation.
S.D. commish to hear pipeline complaints
A spokesman for the state Public Utilities Commission ruled Monday that it does not have authority to decide if a Canadian company can condemn the property of unwilling landowners along the proposed route of a crude oil pipeline.That is an issue for the courts to decide, said John Smith, commission attorney.
But Smith said the PUC will accept the testimony of landowners who have complained about what they say is the way they've been treated by TransCanada Keystone Pipeline Co.
El Paso seeks right of way for Ruby Pipeline
El Paso Corp said on Monday it filed a federal regulatory right of way application for its Ruby Pipeline project, a 620-mile, natural-gas transmission line running from Wyoming to Oregon.
It seems going green is all the rage these days, including after you die.Green burial—which eschews the use of embalming chemicals and caskets that refuse to biodegrade—is on the rise across North America, say trend trackers.
Eat, drink and be miserable: the true cost of our addiction to shopping
But the alternative of lower consumption is something no politician is prepared to consider. In one policy discussion on the subject, Treasury officials responded with contempt, and referred to it as tantamount to "going back to living in caves". We have a political system built on economic growth as measured by gross domestic product, and that is driven by ever-rising consumer spending. Economic growth is needed to service public debt and pay for the welfare state. If people stopped shopping, the economy would ultimately collapse. No wonder, then, that one of the politicians' tasks after a terrorist outrage is to reassure the public and urge them to keep shopping (as both George Bush and Ken Livingstone did). Advertising and marketing, huge sectors of the economy, are entirely devoted to ensuring that we keep shopping and that our children follow in our footsteps.But there is a madness at the heart of this economic model with its terrible environmental costs. It's best illustrated by a graph used by the US psychologist Tim Kasser at a Whitehall seminar last week. One line, representing personal income, has soared over the past 40 years; the other line marks those who describe themselves as "very happy", and has remained the same. The gap between the two yawns ever wider. All this consumption is not necessary to our happiness.
Richard Heinberg's Museletter: What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out?
Our global food system faces a crisis of unprecedented scope. This crisis, which threatens to imperil the lives of hundreds of millions and possibly billions of human beings, consists of four simultaneously colliding dilemmas, all arising from our relatively recent pattern of dependence on depleting fossil fuels.
What should members of the peak oil movement call themselves?
Language is important. Language is the primary way in which humans coordinate their vast enterprises and their daily tasks. And yet, despite this importance the peak oil movement has been fumbling around trying to figure out what to call its members. One thing is certain though. If we don't label ourselves, someone will do it for us. So, I propose to examine some of the terms that are currently in use and suggest a label. I'm certainly open to other suggestions. But, in this piece I hope to do some preliminary pruning.
Even if it has the world’s third largest coal reserve, China fears that it is not enough. Experts: coal will be the principal source of energy in the country through to 2020. increasing numbers of companies try to buy into Indonesian and Australian markets.
Japan Presses China To Solve Gas Row
Japanese cabinet ministers called on Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to help resolve a dispute over natural gas on Sunday, a day after high-level economic talks aimed at warming the long-chilly ties between the two countries.
Indonesia to wean off oil, but biofuel use limited
Indonesia aims to slash the use of oil in its energy mix to around a fifth from half now, but the main substitutes will be gas and coal despite efforts to promote renewable sources, the country's energy minister said on Friday.The resource-rich tropical nation has been pushing the use of biofuels made from sources such as palm oil, but Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the government expected only 5 percent of energy needs to come from biofuel by 2010.
Drive for 'green' palm oil adds to CO2 fears
The destruction of peat bogs in Indonesia is releasing more carbon dioxide every year than all of India or Russia, and three times as much as Germany.
Kenya: Study Starts On Oil Products Use
To address shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the country, he said, the government was contracting LPG import handling and storage facilities in Mombasa as well as storage and distribution facilities in Nairobi. Mr Murungi said that the government had made major strides in the electricity sub-sector citing the turn around in fortunes of the Kenya Power and Lighting Company. "In 2003, KPLC was facing serious financial problems with negative balance sheet and its continuation as an ongoing concern was seriously threatened," he said.
French producer prices boosted by oil, food costs
French industrial producer prices rose at twice the expected pace in October, according to data on Monday that showed pipeline price pressures were building due to the rising cost of energy and raw foodstuffs.
Wind Power Sets Sail From Crowded Germany
Nearly 19,000 wind turbines cover Germany: dotted across the countryside, nudging to the edge of cities and whirring alongside motorways.They generate 5 percent of Germany's electricity -- more than in any other country in the world. But with the best plots already taken, there are now few spaces left where companies are allowed to build more. And it's not just a German problem.
Micro-wind turbines often increase CO2, says study
It has become the home improvement of choice for the environmentally aware, but erecting a wind turbine on the side of your house could create more carbon dioxide than it actually saves, a study into their performance will reveal today.
I would pause to remind readers how I regard capitalism in the first place: not as a belief system or a political ideology, but merely as a set of laws describing the behavior of surplus wealth and the "money" that represents it. Compound interest has worked for communists and Republicans alike. The trouble in our case today stems not from the inherent defects of capitalism which, like gravity, exerts its laws no matter how people think or feel, but from cavalier indifference to its laws. One of these is the idea that capital markets will perform credibly -- within reasonable limits of risk -- only if there is agreement that its tradable paper has some value. When markets work properly, fortunes are made and lost on the basis of relatively slight differentials in notions of value. In other words, people must have some idea what they are trading.
Enbridge crude oil Line 3 pipeline restarts
Canadian oil pipeline company Enbridge Inc said Monday it restarted its Line 3 crude oil pipeline after completing repairs following an explosion last week that killed two workers.The pipeline is now operating at pre-incident operating pressures, Enbridge said.
Arabs and Kurds reach accord in Iraq's Kirkuk
Arab and Kurdish parties in Iraq's oil city of Kirkuk have clinched a deal under which Arabs will end their boycott of the provincial council in return for a more equal sharing of power, an official said on Monday.
Russia to raise gas oil export ahead of new EU rules
Russian gas oil exports via pipelines will rise in December as refiners rush to evacuate more product before the European Union introduces new stricter quality rules for diesel from January, traders say.
BP: Technology and partnership key to regional oil industry's future
Cooperation between governments, national oil companies (NOCs) and international oil companies (IOCs) and the application of innovative technologies is essential to unlocking additional hydrocarbon resources across the Middle East.Speaking on the eve of the International Petroleum Technology Conference, taking place at the Dubai World Trade Centre from 4 - 6 December, BP Middle East President AbdulKarim Al Mazmi highlighted the importance of partnership between NOCs and IOCs in meeting the regional oil & gas industry's expansion targets.
Activist shareholder turns the screws on Sasol
Pressure is mounting on petrochemicals giant Sasol to bring more urgency to its climate action strategy, with shareholder activist Theo Botha the latest to weigh in on the debate.Known for giving executives a hard time on corporate governance issues, Botha raised concerns at Sasol’s annual general meeting on Friday about the level of Sasol’s commitment to reducing emissions.
Italian consumers warned of looming energy shortfall
Italians could shiver through a cold, dark winter this year thanks to a shambolic bureaucracy and confused decision-making processes that have blocked vital development of energy infrastructure, according to Fulvio Conti, head of Enel, the country's largest utility."Watch out. We are in danger," warned Mr Conti in an interview, producing figures that showed how close Italy got to pulling the plug on consumers when gas consumption hit a record, reaching the limit of capacity on January 26, 2006.
China releases draft energy law
China released the draft version of a long-awaited energy law today, calling for more environment-friendly energy policies and a more market-based pricing mechanism.
What are the Prospects for a New Mexican Revolution?
Mexico's political metabolism incubates insurrection every 100 years. Revolutions tend to rise in the tenth year of the century - 1810 (the war of liberation from Spain) and 1910 (the Mexican Revolution) - a calendar that excites speculation about what might be on this not-so-distant neighbor nation's plate for 2010.
Uganda: Confronting the Energy Crisis
In the early 1970s, open conflict between the Arab states and Israel set oil prices skyrocketing. Simultaneously, the Club of Rome and other organisations warned that the world risked running out of many key natural resources. Both led to widespread calls for massive investment in alternative renewable-energy sources, and for new, non-energy-intensive lifestyles.Some international and national movement in this direction followed - the IEA and ministries of energy were created, for example. But much of the warning was ignored. And when the price of oil subsided in the 1980s, the political impetus for radical change evaporated.
The foolhardiness of this short-sightedness has now come back to haunt the developed world in the shape of global warming. If the lessons of the 1970s had been properly heeded, even though the risk of human-induced climate change was unsuspected at the time, we would be in a much better position to meet the threat it poses today.
Sri Lankan ceramic firms mull firewood as alternative energy source
Sri Lanka's ceramics industry has been advised to consider cheaper and alternative forms of energy to trim power costs, which have increased with soaring oil prices.Prema Cooray, secretary general of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, said studies show that firewood can be used as an economical fuel that can be a substitute for petroleum.
New technology key to safety of oil facilities
The ability of Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) to detect defects before failure is of paramount importance in the oil and gas industry.Speaking at the opening of the fourth Middle East Non-Destructive Testing conference and exhibition, Oil and Gas Affairs Minister Dr Abdulhussain Mirza said NDT was critical to ensure the safe, reliable and efficient operation of process facilities.
Several trends directing flow of capital into oil markets
...Global peak oil and the depletion of the world's hydrocarbon resources "is not lost on the investment community and they want a piece of a resource in limited supply. As a result, there's a shift in interest by institutions towards more direct ownership in oil and gas operations."
Aerospaceplanes and space solar power
Supplying a substantial percentage of America’s future electrical power supply from space using SBSP systems can only be expressed as a giant leap forward in space operations. Each of the hundreds of solar power satellites needed would require 10,000–20,000 tons of components transported to orbit, assembled in orbit, and then moved to geostationary orbit for operations. The scale of logistics operations required is substantially greater than what we have previously undertaken. Periodically, industrial operations experience revolutions in technology and operations. Deep sea oil exploration is an example. Within a couple decades, entirely new industrial operations can start and grow to significant levels of production. The same will happen with space industrialization when—not if—the right product or service is undertaken. SBSP may be the breakthrough product for leading the industrialization of space. This was our assumption in conducting the study. As the cost of oil approaches $100 a barrel, combined with the possibility of the world reaching peak oil production in the near future, this may turn out to be a valid assumption.
Long-term oil prophecies proven wrong
By 1978 oil was traded at around the equivalent of $US120 a barrel - and the end of the age of oil was widely predicted.The Club of Rome predictions of the late 1960s, based on the idea that there is a limit to global economic expansion because of scarce natural resources such as oil, have not eventuated, and today there is scepticism about OPEC's ability to dictate oil prices.
Senior transportation a growing concern
Concern over how the bulging population of seniors will get around in a sprawling nation heavily dependent on the automobile is paramount among advocates for the elderly — so much so that Markwood's group is making transportation the centerpiece of its annual "Home for the Holidays" campaign."Half of American households don't have access to adequate transportation options other than cars," Markwood says. "Rural America and suburbs don't have public transportation available."
Of hierarchies, thresholds and the rising price of oil
OVER the past year the price of oil has more or less doubled to its current level of close to $100 per barrel . With $100 in sight, it provides us with an opportunity to reflect on what forces are driving the price of oil so high. By looking at wealth hierarchies we can examine how it is affecting both rich and poor countries. While there are a number of complex factors — such as speculation, the fall of the dollar and a number of geopolitical issues — which all have a bearing on the price of oil, the fundamental issue driving price increases is what the main stream economists euphemistically refer to as “supply problems”. These “supply problems” are rarely examined in depth, leaving a gaping hole in analysis of current events. There is a growing body of research and opinion that global oil production is either near or has passed its peak in production. The implication is that from that point onwards production in oil will decline.
Commodities go ka-ching; buyers go, 'Ouch'
Cold steel is red-hot. So is lead. And wheat. Commodities are the hottest investment on the planet today.Investment banks are scrambling to hire commodity traders and analysts, even as they lay off thousands of existing employees. Oil prices approached the once-unthinkable level of $100 a barrel last month before falling back Friday to $88.71. Grain and oilseeds trading on Chicago futures exchanges are up more than 25% from 2006. Copper prices soared so high that the U.S. Mint had to ban people from melting pennies and nickels to resell the metal.
Climate change may wipe some Indonesian islands off map
Many of Indonesia's islands may be swallowed up by the sea if world leaders fail to find a way to halt rising sea levels at this week's climate change conference on the resort island of Bali.Doomsters take this dire warning by Indonesian scientists a step further and predict that by 2035, the Indonesian capital's airport will be flooded by sea water and rendered useless; and by 2080, the tide will be lapping at the steps of Jakarta's imposing Dutch-era Presidential palace which sits 10 km inland (about 6 miles).
OPEC backs away from supply increase
OPEC oil producers may decide not to raise supplies after a fall in crude prices from record highs, ministers from the cartel said on Monday.Oil's slide below $88 a barrel for U.S. crude from above $99 on Nov. 21 has made some in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reluctant to support the small supply increment that many oil traders were expecting.
Petroecuador controls oil protest, output rises
Petroecuador has controlled a violent protest in an Amazon jungle province that had slashed the state oil firm's daily output by 20 percent earlier last week, a company spokesman said Monday.Petroecuador's oil production was up near normal levels on Sunday at 172,404 barrels per day, recovering from the demonstrations by villagers of the province of Orellana who demanded more state funding for infrastructure projects.
Fire shuts down Saudi oil refinery
A fire has shut down a Saudi Arabian oil refinery, the state oil company said Monday, the second accident in the country’s energy industry in two weeks.
Petro-Canada eyes Syria riches
Petro-Canada is one of at least four companies that have bid to explore for oil and natural gas off Syria, according to the country's Deputy Oil Minister Hassan Zainab.
China, India urged to curb energy use
Coal-burning power plants belch pollutants into the air in China, contributing to global warming that experts say has destroyed billions of dollars in crops.In India, melting Himalayan glaciers cause floods, while raising a more daunting long-term prospect: the drying up of life-sustaining rivers.
The two economic giants are becoming increasingly aware of the effects of rising temperatures. But though they are among the biggest contributors to the problem, both say they will not sign any climate change treaty that would slow the pace of their development.
Australian PM ratifies Kyoto Protocol
Labor Party leader Kevin Rudd became Australia's 26th prime minister Monday and immediately began dismantling the former government's policies by ratifying the Kyoto Protocol on climate change.Rudd had pledged to commit Australia to the landmark United Nations treaty on greenhouse gas emissions as his first priority and kept his word after his official swearing in at Government House in Canberra.
Climate campaigner's road from 'raving idiot' to Australian of the year
Australian scientist Tim Flannery grew used to receiving quizzical looks in the 1990s as he pounded the corridors of power in Canberra urging politicians to do something about climate change."You'd go and see a federal minister and they'd stare at you like you were a raving idiot," Flannery says of his early lobbying efforts.



A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.
Editorial Note from Stoneleigh: Round-Ups do not always make the front page at TOD. For access to all our work, please check the TOD:Canada site regularly. The last Finance Round-Up (November 29th) can be found here. We intend to publish them twice a week.
It's not that I was wrong when I said we'd see the US economy propped up for one last good Christmas shopping season. It's just that accountants, auditors and ratings agencies have started to feel so much heat, they're afraid they'll be left sitting all alone on the hot cinders around the tree, with a shaky conscience and nothing in their socks to start the new year but pink slips and indictments.
Today, in early December, it's still possible that the worst decay remains buried till 2008, but we can't be sure anymore. What we see is America's largest mortgage lender, Countrywide, hanging on by a thread, while America's, and the world's, biggest bank, Citigroup, may be beyond redemption. After recent securities losses, and $40+ billion more predicted, Citi now admits to a $17 billion write-down on its SIV's, which still leaves another $66 billion of braindead "assets".
Ratings agencies are trying to stay afloat, and increasingly, in the face of congressional investigations, out of prison. To show their good will, they've started downrating companies, bonds, and all sorts of securities. This'll likely be the end for many bond insurers. Is that so bad? Ambac carries $620 billion in structured paper, with $9 billion in cash. ACA insured $61 billion in assets, with $326 million in cash. Isn't it just good riddance?
Well, Ambac are underwriters for paper issued by the likes of Countrywide, GMAC and Lehman Bros, and Ambac's demise will drag down, way down, all the paper they insured, and the clients that issued it.
And it gets worse, with the forced sale of E*Trade's mortgage-backed securities. E*Trade got $2.5 billion from Citadel, a hedge fund, under condition that they sell their MBS. Since nobody trades that stuff these days, for fear of finding out the true value, this sale is a rare glimpse behind the veil. The price they got is 11 to 26 cents on the dollar, a potential 89% loss.
Why is that important? It sets a new rule, law, value, for all remaining mortgage-backed securities, trillions of dollars "worth", that remain in vaults all over the world. For all of them, it just got a whole lot harder, if not downright impossible, to get more than 11 cents on the dollar. Moreover, E*Trade was the only offer in the market when they had to sell. If more, and bigger, parties are forced to unload simultaneously, the price'll go down, so says the free market.
2 Finanical articles in the NYT today...
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/opinion/03krugman.html?em&ex=119683080...
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/02/world/europe/02norway.html?em&ex=11968...
U.S. Credit Crisis Adds to Gloom in Norway
From ABC news ....
National Debt Grows $1 Million a Minute
Like a ticking time bomb, the national debt is an explosion waiting to happen. It's expanding by about $1.4 billion a day or nearly $1 million a minute.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=3944576
At this point, the debt is so large that if we were to start paying down the debt as soon as Bush is ousted, using the same rate at which we are currently creating debt, it would take us about 18 years to pay it off, assuming that the future president is willing to cut the federal budget by more than 1 trillion dollars, which is 35.7% of the current budget [Rough estimate, I don't care to do the complex interest/inflation math]
Basically, Bush has screwed over the next five presidents! With all the demands placed on the budget by the baby boomers, and the future need to protect our energy suppliers, the budget simply cannot be reduced in that way. Even if one completely discounts peak oil, the financial picture is still grim! When thought of this way, inflation really is the only way to get out of the debt.
I'm 22. Where is my limitless future? Look out peak oil, here comes peak apathy (As population declines, so does the ability to produce apathy).
I think you are mostly considering just the $8-$9 trillion in Current Debt. The boomers are starting to retire now, that's about $50+ trillion payout. We CANNOT ramp up to pay that. Not in an energy decreasing world with it's Deflationary experience.
We have already past the Event Horizon on debt, and we CANNOT repay it.
It's eventually will be called Soverign Default.
Or as the Phoenix as the Amero ?
So?
Paying off debt over decades isn't necessarily a problem - (responsible) homeowners have been doing that with their mortgages for decades.
More importantly, though, why is it necessary to pay the debt to zero? The US government borrows money at a remarkably low rate of interest - 5% - so it can be cost-effective to borrow, provided the money is spent to create more wealth than is needed to pay it off.
The US government's debt is at about 65% of GDP now, which is a very reasonable number by historical as well as international terms. Interest payments on the debt are at a multi-decade low as a fraction of tax receipts, which themselves are fairly low. Looked at objectively, it's really not that big of a deal.
Those "demands" come almost exclusively from assuming that medical expenses will continue to rise as fast as they have been. They can't - we can't afford it - so they won't.
Paul Krugman has written fairly extensively about this. The basic point is that healthcare in the US is monstrously expensive and inefficient, and fixing that will largely fix the problem.
Well to be frank, I’m not king of finance, actually far from that - but when learning that someone buy other peoples debt, in order to multiply their monies (investment?)...then this is it: “we have reached the pinnacle of thinking, it's not going higher” – take a deep breath, next is back to square #1… for a redesign of western thinking(societies).
Pity enough I know what they do with “their newly bought dept”, they squeeze unlucky poor people between a rock and a hard place… Watch the grim movie “Maxed Out” and see what’s in the coming
Do you think a lot of these places might be waiting until Christmas day (or eve) to put out a press release and disclose a whole gaggle of bad news? It's pretty much the perfect day to let bad news out because no one's going to see it, so it'll mostly go unnoticed.
The Wall Street Journal published their Peak Oil story on the Monday of Thanksgiving week.
Perhaps Export Land Model the Wednesday to Friday after Christmas ?
Best Hopes for Full Disclosure,
Alan
My forecast for Dec. 21st is widespread scattered flurries of pink slips. Employers just LOVE to give their employees the sack right before the Christmas holiday. It does cheer up the holidays, so.
Yes. The credit cards have already been swiped. The gifts are already given.
Stoneleigh,
Just a quick comment. I think one needs to be Very Sceptical about the lose figures provided by Citigroup. The number for their loses seems too low too be true. I read somewhere that they have around 80 billion of bad debts, off the books, hidden in the Caymans.
Also a British bank, just one bank, and not the biggest has alone borrowed over 60 billion dollars in the last few months from the Bank of England, to cover it's loses.
I think the banks are delaying revealing the true extent size of their loses for a number of reasons; they don't really know how much they've lost, they don't care, they hope the government will step in a pick up the loss, they are hoping for a miracle.
It may be worse than that Citi has about $132+ Billion in Level 3 assets (these are non-liquid and very difficult to sell). One of the biggest hurdles for Citi is they lent long and financed using short term bonds, as the bonds come do, Citi (as well as many other lenders) need to sell new bonds to replace the bonds comming due. Its likely that Citi will take a bath, because I doubt they will be able to find investors willing to buy bonds at yields below the yield of the loans they made, (ie Citi loans 15yr@5.5% but the bond yields on short and long term are much higher say 7.0% for 2yr bonds. Citi bleeds money on the difference.
RE: Aerospaceplanes and space solar power
Oh no, not another plan to keep moving to the High Frontier! When will these guys ever learn that it takes energy to move mass into orbit? And, reusable craft, especially of the manned variety, tend to become complex and expensive. At least, the author notes that the concept of an aerospaceplane he considers is a 2 stage to orbit, not a single stage to orbit wet dream. No, we won't be able to go to the local airport and jump into orbit...
E. Swanson
Reminds me of a button that I once saw some guy wearing: "The meek will inherit the earth -- the rest will go to the stars."
Don't think they don't mean it.
I thought it was 'the meek shall inherit the Earth, after the lawyers have probated the will.'
or my favorite: "the meek shall inherit the earth, but not it's mineral rights"
J.P. Getty
The urge to escape is only going to grow as environment and peak oil close in, but the economic disaster (thanks, Mr. Greenspan!) will ensure its only wishful thinking that can't be turned into an "escape into orbit" aerospace welfare program.
There is no safe harbor in this solar system other than earth unless we master fusion in a big way. We just need too much mass around us to protect against cosmic ray effects once we clear the earth's magnetosphere, and we're not moving that mass with chemical rockets.
Boldly going where no one has gone before? I guess that is true of what is about to happen, but it isn't going to be like in the movies :-(
I suppose there are some who think we could "terraform" Mars. Didn't Arnie do a SciFi movie about that? It looked to be a great place for a prison, until Arnie discovered some alien oxygen generator in a volcano.
Actually, the article discusses building space-based solar power stations in orbit. Look at this scenario:
He's thinking about hundreds of "sitting ducks" in geostationary orbit (GEO). The aerospaceplane would only go to LEO, but all those big satellites in GEO would need to be assembled in LEO and moved to GEO. Two big problems. The first is, how are these to be maintained? The second is, how are these "sitting ducks" to be defended?
That second problem is of more importance, as I see things, as the defense would likely be some sort of laser battle station built onto the power satellites. All that power could (in theory) be directed as an energy beam at any satellite or any vehicle launched from the surface. The potential use of this "defensive" system in an anti-missile mode would be obvious. Once such a system were in place, it would be a simple matter to let a few drift around the orbit to positions spaced over all other nations. The lasers could then be used in an offensive mode to attack other nations cities and or other assets.
The Chinese or any other country with launch capabilities might think these satellites are a threat and decide to "sink" them. The Chinese have already demonstrated such ASAT capability and I'm sure the Russians or the Indians might also feel obligated to defend their "airspace". We might see a situation where a war is fought outside the atmosphere between robot satellite systems, with no casualties on the ground. The perfect conflict for the computer gamers and folks that pilot unmanned drones with HELLFIRE missiles, lots of excitement without directly suffering pain.
BTW, tell us Gee Dubyah, exactly why ARE we building the ISS?
E. Swanson
The Chinese anti satellite shot made a heck of a mess from just above the atmosphere out to 2,200+ miles. They basically showed that there won't be any foolishness in orbit, or they'll do this a few more times and then *poof* no more orbital nuttin' for nobody.
http://www.space.com/news/070202_china_spacedebris.html
Pollution has consequences :-(
...we could "terraform" Mars. Didn't Arnie do a SciFi movie about that? It looked to be a great place for a prison, until Arnie discovered some alien oxygen generator in a volcano.
Yeah, he simply pushed the ancient button and oxygen and water and trees and life gushed out over the planet in about 25 seconds. Any realistic effort will take a leeetle bit longer than that.
Meanwhile we continue to marsiform the Earth.
** gloom **
"The urge to escape is only going to grow as environment and peak oil close in..."
Hmm... like a second Earth...an Earth 2 perhaps :)
I remember that sci-fi series, it was ok not the best though.
Never thought i would be looking back at it in this light though knowing what i know now.
Oh, it was terrible but I still watched it. Had an adequate amount of entertainment value. I don't know where the writers got their inspiration but it has quite a bit of bearing on P.O. The government in the show was always trying to sabotage them because their going to Earth2 represented a loss of power. Then there was the kid who had a disease the government denied even existed. Of course the government was always cooking up schemes to plunder the pristine planet and kill off the "Terrians"(aka space Native Americans).
That reminded me of another post-apocalyptic show I used to watch as a kid... anyone remember Ark II, a giant RV that drove around the world righting wrongs?
anyone remember Ark II
Thanks, I do remember that show and have been trying to
remember what the name of it was.
The biggest flaw is the idea of starting at sea level and at 0 mph. Imagine how much fuel you need to get up to the first mile and the first few hundred mph.
A better approach would be some sort of electric-powered accelerator system built up in the mountains, 1 or 2 miles above sea level. The system would gradually speed the payload up to something close to mach 1 or so as it was slung out towards space. By virtue of already moving at close to mach 1, and by already being a couple of miles up (where the air is thinner), the amount of fuel needed to boost a payload the rest of the way into orbit is considerably reduced.
Payload containers should be designed for a one-way trip into space, to then be recycled as building material for space stations, etc. Don't bother trying to bring them back for re-use.
As for humans, they do have to be brought back, so some sort of reusable space plane might make sense, but for passengers only - no cargo. Keep it small and simple.
None of this will actually happen, of course. This is just what we SHOULD have been done, if we had any sense. Too late now.
"A better approach would be some sort of electric-powered accelerator system built up in the mountains, 1 or 2 miles above sea level."
How about 50,000 ft?
SpaceShipOne/White Knight
http://www.scaled.com/projects/tierone/index.htm
http://www.scaled.com/projects/tierone/data_sheets/html/white_knight.htm
The problem with Rutan's cute li'l space plane is that it uses up all its fuel to get to the edge of space. At that point its ground speed is 0mph and it falls back into the atmosphere.
To achieve orbit you have to go 17 or 18 thousand miles an hour once you're free of the atmosphere. That's what takes all the gigantic fuel tanks and stuff.
Our current shuttle design has solid fuel boosters in place of the mountain range rail-gun or other lifting vehicle. When they get above most of the atmosphere the solid boosters are released and the shuttle continues to accelerate on its own rocket engines, using that huge huge non-reusable tank of hydrogen and oxygen. They save just enough fuel in some small internal reservoir to drop back out of orbit.
Once you see or touch lift vehicles, you realize that they're as exquisitely delicate and complex as Faberge eggs. Your linac ramp had better be pretty doggone long, and perfectly smooth and straight, if you hope to make any dent in that pesky 10km/sec escape velocity without crushing the craft in the process.
Of course it isn't easy . . . just not impossible.
The only shuttle components you really replace with the rail gun are the solid fuel boosters. Those two smaller cylinders on either side of the launch vehicle.
And Mr. Rutan's cute plastic craft are mere publicity stunts. No way could they survive the rigors of mach twentysomething in a hard vacuum for several days, followed by reentry. Should they encounter a fleck of paint up there, they'd instantly disintegrate.