DrumBeat: December 4, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 4, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Remembering and learning from a legend
Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject of peak oil, died suddenly and unexpectedly on October 30 of a heart attack. Our thoughts go out to Amir Bahman and Golbenaz Samsam Bakhtiari and the rest of the family....One can’t capture the full range of Ali’s ideas in a short space. What follows are a few clips from several articles by him or about him, plus the full Commentary that he wrote for this publication 21 months ago (2/20/06). They are presented below sequentially. We’ve added an extra page to this issue’s normal 6-page length to include these items. They hold up well several years later. Indeed, whether we have reached a technical peak in world oil production or whether it comes in a few years, one suspects that Dr. Bakhtiari’s main observations will show keen foresight in the years to come.
Saudis may bigfoot OPEC and hike output
Many analysts are expecting more oil, whether OPEC sanctions it or not."I don't think the Saudis have been happy with the high prices," said Lou Pugliaresi, president of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, who thinks OPEC will boost production by 500,000 barrels or so.
Pugliaresi didn't elaborate on the impact on prices or what price level the Saudis might like to see, simply saying it will have a "moderating effect."
Even the U.S. government thinks OPEC will increase production, and notes that Saudi Arabia has been slowly increasing output over the last several months, even though OPEC's last official production increase wasn't slatted to take effect until November.
Suit filed to stop drilling in refuge
Lawyers for environmental and native Alaska groups are asking a federal appeals court in San Francisco to block an oil company's plans for exploratory drilling near the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Oil prices ... Wall Street and Gulf Arab States to the rescue?
WTI nearby futures, or the next month's contract price, he thought could shrink to maybe $75/bbl on the downside, but then rebound well above $101.30/bbl in the next 60 days. Why he chose $101.30 was simple: this is what Wall Street Journal calculates as the ultimate oil price in 1980, in 2007 dollars.January or February calls at $101.30/bbl will be really cheap in the next 15 days, he said, but the 75 puts won't be cheap, so go sparingly on those.
Open letter to Kevin Rudd, Australia's new Prime Minister
Even though the effects of climate change are likely to be very serious, they are largely unknown and will play out over the coming decades. However, Peak Oil will have major consequences over the coming years – during your time as Prime Minister.
UK supermajor BP said it had started up the world’s deepest subsea multi-phase pumps at its King oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico.BP said the twin pumps, 5500 feet below the surface, lie almost twice as deep as the previously record installation.
The company said the pumps also set a world record for distance from their host platform. The pumps lie 15 miles (24 kilometres) from the Marlin tension-leg platform.
BP said the breakthrough would enhance companies’ ability to recover oil from deepwater fields. The pumps would boost output from the King oilfield by 20% and extend its life by five years, it said.
US Official: Iraq Needs Oil Law
A Top US Treasury Official Says Stalled Oil Law, Not Insecurity, Hampering Iraq Oil Investment
Statoilhydro says fire put out at Troll field Songa Dee drilling rig in North Sea
Norwegian oil and gas major StatoilHydro ASA said that a fire on the Songa Dee drilling rig in the North Sea's Troll field had been put out and there had been no injuries and disruption to any production.
Islanders seek climate summit help
Squealing pigs lit out for the bush and Filomena Taroa herded the grandkids to higher ground last week when the sea rolled in deeper than anyone had ever seen.What was happening? "I don't know," the sturdy, barefoot grandmother told a visitor. "I'd never experienced it before."
As scientists warn of rising seas from global warming, more and more reports are coming in from villages like this one on Papua New Guinea's New Britain island of flooding from unprecedented high tides. It's happening not only to low-lying atolls, but to shorelines from Alaska to India.
Five tree fee for a Java wedding
Couples in the Sragen region of Java in Indonesia have reportedly been told that they need to fund the planting of five trees if they want to get married.State-run Antara news agency reported that couples will have to supply seedlings or pay 25,000 rupiah ($3, £1.30) under the compulsory scheme.
Couples applying for a divorce face a higher charge of 25 seedlings or over 40,000 rupiah ($4.25,£2).
District officials say the programme is aimed at combating global warming.
Australia: Rate and fuel rises hit urban fringe
PEOPLE living on Brisbane's fringe are the worst affected by increasing petrol prices and interest rates.Griffith University's index of Vulnerability, Assessment for Mortgage, Petrol, Inflation, Risks and Expenditure (VAMPIRE) showed that between 2001 and 2006 the vulnerability rose for people in outlying areas.
"Areas that were not populated in 2001 that have since been developed all ended up with the highest vulnerability rating," researcher Jago Dodson said.
PEMEX Taking back Old Oil Fields
PEMEX (Mexican Oil) proposed the reactivation of 50 fields that are older or in the process of abandonment, since oil high international prices continue to grow.
High prices spur regional oil boom
Record high world oil prices, along with new drilling methods, are driving a boom in the oil fields of North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming, and to a lesser degree, northwest South Dakota, industry officials say.
Oil firms resist Nigerian fines for gas flaring
Oil companies operating in Nigeria complained on Tuesday about government plans to start fining them for flaring gas next year, saying the deadline was unrealistic and the economic damage would be immense.
Senate Minority Leader Calls Energy Bill 'Troublesome'
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on Monday threw cold water on a major energy bill that Democrats are hoping to pass before the end of the year, saying it contains "troublesome" measures that would force electric utilities to generate a greater share of their power from renewable sources."That would be very troublesome for all of us in the Southeast," McConnell told reporters. "That's a mandatory
New Zealand: Power price rise cost of climate fight
Power prices are likely to rise after the Government took a legislative stick to electricity companies, imposing a 10-year moratorium on the construction of thermal power plants.
Taxis disappearing form Gaza streets due to Israeli fuel reduction
Mohammed Abu Shaqfa, 21, had to walk nearly 25 km to Khan Younis along with his fellow students from his university in Gaza City after a two-hour desperate wait in a Gaza street for a taxi on Tuesday.The group of students of the Islamic University at first were very happy to see some taxis parked at a nearby square, but to their disappointment, none of the yellow Hyundai vans have enough fuel to ferry them to southern Gaza town of Khan Younis.
Nepal to pay IOC dues to end petroleum crisis
The long-running petroleum crisis in Nepal may be eased with the government deciding to pay the bills of the Indian oil supplier.Commerce Minister Shyam Sundar Gupta said that the government would pay the outstanding dues to the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) in order to end the petroleum shortage in the Himalayan country.
Food banks hit by supply shortage
“[Food pantries] see new faces showing up for food,” Fraser said. “We can only assume it’s for reasons like increased cost of gas, fuel, increased cost of living … A lot of states are just in catastrophic condition. Some of the food pantries have so little food that they’ve just closed down.”
Water shortages are likely to be trigger for wars, says UN chief Ban Ki Moon
A struggle by nations to secure sources of clean water will be “potent fuel” for war, the first Asia-Pacific Water Summit heard yesterday.The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki Moon, told delegates from across the region that the planet faced a water crisis that was especially troubling for Asia.
High population growth, rising consumption, pollution and poor water management posed significant threats, he said, adding that climate change was also making “a bad situation worse”.
Rising oil costs expected to increase heating costs in Mass.
Rising oil prices are expected to boost heating oil costs by nearly $1,000 for the average Massachusetts family this winter.A coalition of business, labor and community organizations bases its estimate on the state's average heating oil price last week. The average is 39 percent higher than it was during the same week a year earlier.
UK: Grassroots leadership in the fight against fuel poverty
Recent figures showing that fuel poverty has almost doubled in the past few years as a result of rising energy prices have emphasised the importance of ensuring affordable warmth for all. Behind the statistics lie real people who put their health at risk because they go without heating or get into unmanageable debt just to pay the bills. Because it is a complex problem, we need all parts of government to work together with partners in the private and voluntary sectors to make a difference.
Delta, Southwest warn about fuel, demand
Waning consumer confidence and soaring fuel costs caused Delta Air Lines Inc to warn of a possible operating loss on Tuesday, while Southwest Airlines Co said it would restrict capacity growth to brace for tougher times ahead.
Democrats set milestone with automotive deal
An agreement among congressional Democrats to support a 40 percent increase in U.S. vehicle fuel efficiency by 2020 has been hailed as an historic step by both environmentalists and the automotive industry. But while the compromise seems to please both sides, it still faces substantial political hurdles.
Doomsday seed bank gears up for business
Refrigeration units on Friday begin cooling a new doomsday vault dug into an already frigid Arctic mountainside to protect the world's seeds in case of a global catastrophe.
Stuck on Coal, and Stuck for Words in a High-Tech World
Human progress, Loren Eiseley wrote in 1954, has largely been a climb up “the heat ladder” from one energy source to the next. Each has been more convenient or potent or economical than the last. No one lugs firewood to warm a high-rise apartment building in Chicago.But the climb has stalled. The potential of the atom has been sharply limited by safety and security questions and fusion’s persistent hurdles. Sunlight, identified as far back as Thomas Edison’s time as the ultimate energy source, is still costly to transform into electricity on a large scale.
Author Richard Heinberg gives us reasons to be concerned, if not to be scared, about the future of our civilization in his acclaimed books Powerdown and The Party's Over. If we continue to ignore the following four factors, a dreadful ending marked by destructive war, economic collapse and environmental catastrophe is a likely consequence.
Environmental issues are inseparable from global economic issues. Finally it can be observed that environmental issues are themselves threats to security. The concept 'resource war' is itself an indication that environmental issues can be understood as a source of political threat.
Computer servers 'as bad' for climate as SUVs
Computer servers are at least as great a threat to the climate as SUVs or the global aviation industry, warns a new report.
'Out of Balance' climate film targets ExxonMobil
Environmentalists love taking aim at ExxonMobil Corp., which many see as the biggest corporate culprit in human-fueled climate change. A documentary on global warming takes this to a new level: buy the $24.99 DVD online, and the film's distributor will donate $10 to victims of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill.
Small Step, Big Victory on Energy
A majority in both houses of Congress, reflecting the desires of the American people, wants to shift the direction of our energy policy away from the fossil fuel past and towards a renewable energy future.
HARTline ridership continues to rise
Tampa - High gas prices appear to be driving people to try buses. Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority, which oversees the county's public bus system, reported an 11 percent jump in October ridership, compared with October 2006.
Electric cars could act as batteries for the energy grid
Electric and hybrid cars could act as energy stores for the power grid while not being driven, say US researchers.Scientists from the University of Delaware are using a new prototype made by US company AC Propulsion to store or supply grid electricity when required.
Enel's power plant for Albania
The Italian company plans to build a thermal power plant, fuelled by imported coal with an estimated capacity of approximately 1,300 MW, which would supply electricity to both the Italian and Albanian markets.
Energy expert warns about peak oil
As you're hopping into your car, gearing up for the holidays, driving every which way to pick out shiny gifts, think about this: According to Robert Hirsch, a past senior energy program advisor for world oil production with Science Application International Corporations, the one resource that provides all those things could soon be in dangerously short supply.
Gasoline prices could fall as crude oil wavers
The price of oil — within winking distance of $100 a barrel last week — has fallen and can't get up....If prices continue at less than $90, gasoline retailers could afford to pass along the past week's 20-cent drop in their wholesale prices. Gasoline is made from oil. The price of oil accounts for roughly two-thirds the price of gasoline, the latest government data say.
UK: Soaring Prices Fuel Discontent
FUEL prices have reached a record high and with petrol now hitting £1.12 a litre in parts of rural Scotland, that's more than £5 a gallon. Diesel has hit a staggering 118.9p in some areas.While the rest of the planet is allowed to guzzle gas at a fraction of the cost, our motorists are paying the price.
Iran can hike oil output if OPEC wants, says official
Iran could supply additional oil to the market if OPEC chose to increase production, Iran's OPEC governor said on Tuesday, although he said Tehran saw no need for an OPEC hike.
Gazprom receives approval to hike 2008 domestic gas prices by 25%
OAO Gazprom received approval from Russia's Federal Tariff Service to raise wholesale gas prices by 25 pct next year, a source familiar with the decision told Interfax.
The pace of upstream licensing in Libya is picking up: this month, Tripoli has agreed new deals with US companies Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum (Oxy), and Austria’s OMV.
Climate Talks Take on Added Urgency After Report
Thousands of government officials, industry lobbyists, environmental campaigners and observers are arriving on the Indonesian island of Bali for two weeks of talks starting Monday that are aimed at breathing new life into the troubled 15-year-old global climate treaty.A heightened sense of urgency surrounds the meeting in light of a report issued last month by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which detailed the potentially devastating effects of global warming in the panel’s strongest language yet.
Call for action to save Himalayan glaciers
As industrial powers debate global warming, some of the greatest concern lies in the remote Himalayas where melting glaciers pose catastrophic risks, experts say.The retreat of the ice causes so-called glacial lakes in the Himalayas, which are a key source of water to densely populated South Asia -- a region that already suffers deadly floods on an annual basis.
The Climate in Bali and Washington
So far, this has been an encouraging year for people who care about global warming. Governors have signed regional agreements to cap greenhouse gas emissions. The federal courts are pressing Washington to take action. Venture capitalists have poured money into cleaner fuels. Polls show rising public concern.What’s still missing is a concrete national and international strategy for a problem that does not respect any borders. The days ahead will tell a lot about whether the world, and especially the United States, is prepared to do more than just talk about the problem.
US wants to negotiate new climate pact
American delegates at the U.N. climate conference insisted Monday they would not be a "roadblock" to a new international agreement aimed at reducing potentially catastrophic greenhouse gases.But Washington refused to endorse mandatory emissions cuts, which are seen by many governmental delegations at the meeting as crucial for reining in rising temperatures.
Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring
The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in 50 years, according to one of the world's leading agricultural researchers.Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple foods, Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute, warned in an interview with the Guardian.
The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing nations has combined with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United States and Europe to transform the global food situation.
Saudis refuse to tip their hand on whether OPEC will increase output
OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia kept consumers guessing on the eve of a key meeting of the group Tuesday, with its oil minister refusing to tip his hand on whether he favors cranking up production to reassure skittish markets.
OPEC may hike daily output by 500,000 barrels: source
OPEC will either increase supplies by 500,000 barrels a day or maintain its oil production level, an OPEC delegate told reporters in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday ahead of the cartel's crucial output meeting."OPEC will either roll-over or make a gesture of 500,000 barrels per day" increase at its meeting in the Emirati capital on Wednesday, said the delegate, who requested anonymity.
He said an increase could be decided despite the market being "more than supplied," in order for OPEC to no longer be blamed for record high oil prices close to 100 dollars a barrel.
Environmental campaigners today appeared to have opened up a new front in the battle against Big Oil over climate change when they established a bogus website and sent out a press release committing BP, Shell and others to a 90% cut in carbon outputs by 2050 with no strings attached.The internet portal looked identical to the one run by the US Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), a consortium of 33 prominent corporations and organisations, except that the news section of the mocked-up copy included a news release proclaiming "major businesses announce commitment to reduce greenhouse emissions by 90%".
The only thing we have to fear is fear-mongering
Just before Thanksgiving, members of the Peak Oil Committee had a hearing in Hartford involving Connecticut's apparent lack of preparedness for the world running out of oil and natural gas.The hearing featured like-minded believers of the notion that the world is about to run out of fossil fuels that power the world's economies and that Connecticut is at risk for its failure to prepare for inevitable economic depression, widespread famine and general calamity. Mind you, no mainstream energy experts participated, only those who believe the world is coming to an end. This isn't the first time this has happened.
UK: City hosts meeting on fuel costs
A conference to discuss the impact of rising oil costs on the people of Stirling is to be held in the city.Organiser Rachel Nunn, the co-founder of Going Carbon Neutral Stirling, said the event would look at the effects of fuel costs.
Titled Peak Oil and Carbon Emissions, the conference will also focus on the consequences for every day life.
Africa: How to Light Up Africa?
The current skyrocketing world price for oil is getting closer to an unbelievable figure of $100 - the highest in recent years - and this is bringing our economies to their knees.This increase in oil prices is fuelling economic problems and neutralising our hard-earned gains from poverty reduction programmes, international development and even debt relief efforts.
Lights out for oil-rich Nigeria
The Egbin Thermal Power Station, a few miles outside Lagos, is Nigeria's largest generating plant, with a capacity of 1,320 megawatts. It has six units, but two have been cannibalized to repair the remaining four, and at peak hours only two turbines are functioning. On bad days, like the first week in November, when the gas supply line was sabotaged, the plant shuts down altogether.Not surprisingly, morale is low. "We are told of massive funding, but the funding never gets here," says Akintoye, an engineer at the plant. "We don't have spare parts. The contractors who built the plant are not given the maintenance contracts, which are determined by the regime in power. Even if we are operating optimally we can't serve Lagos, with a population of ten million."
Gunmen Kill Oil Worker in Nigeria
Gunmen have killed one person and seriously injured a second in an attack on a crewboat operated by Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) in the oil-rich Niger Delta, an industry source said Tuesday."One crew (member) was killed and one seriously injured," said the source.
Bali climate talks advance despite squabbling
A 190-nation climate meeting in Bali took small steps towards a new global deal to fight global warming by 2009 on Tuesday amid disputes about how far China and India should curb rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Shanghai sea levels rise faster than average
THE sea level around Shanghai has risen 120 millimeters since 1977 - a level higher than the national average.Action needs to be taken, an official of the State Oceanic Administration said yesterday.
Victims of climate change, real and potential, appealed Tuesday for a vast increase in international aid to protect them from and compensate them for rising seas, crop-killing drought and other likely impacts of global warming.
Maybe I missed it, but I've not seen any discussion of the Harper's Magazine December 2007 issue. Specifically, the article "The Black Box: Inside Iraq's Oil Machine" by Luke Mitchell.
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2007/12/0081830
Has any one else read the article?
I'm off to work all day -- for me, this means away from the computer, most likely for 8-10 hours.
I thought Mitchell's article was very well done, and especially noted the various ways in which it has been relatively easy for oil smuggling inside of Iraq and at the tanker terminal without meters to measure oil flow.
It is behind a paywall...
Sorry about that.
Well, the article is good enough to go and check out at the library, or to go to the local bookseller to sit and read, or even (gasp -- it must be good!) to buy off the magazine rack.
The description of Iraq's oil infrastructure, the corrupt USA-funded "reconstruction" of said infrastructure which allows for local and international smuggling of oil, and the obscene environmental impact of operating this oil infrastructure under the condistions of a brutal and corrupt military occupation are vital information for all of us.
Whether as USA citizens or as world citizens we need to know the facts on the ground -- not simply what Fox/CNN/Corporatist Media Dis-Info-Tainment shows like to present.
Interesting work on Walkable Cities, follow link:
http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/1128_walkableurbanism_leinberger.as...
jjlalaska
AK cities are not on the list!!
Your right about Alaska perhaps they did not consider it.
When I lived Bethel, AK I walk almost everywhere and a cab when it was to cold, and when I lived in Anchorage, AK I got around on my bicycle for a good part of the year, the urban planning was well done in Anchorage, most neighborhoods had retail shops within walking distance then large park/open spaces near by. I miss living there.
This report was for cities with pop. of 10-50 units per acre, but left out how they depend on others traveling to them to make them work, and how big of parking ramps are needed, or they would most likely fail.
Most of the cities in that report are no more that urban planning vomit done by paycheck planners pushed around by bully builders. In 100 years people will look back in time as say what were they thinking.
'urban planning vomit done by paycheck planners pushed around by bully builders.'
That's my kind of in your face eloquence. Sounds just like our town. Government by Board of Variance. I'd revise that hundred years down to ten or less.
Well said.
Anchorage? Please. Just another automobile slum. (I lived there for six months in the early 1990s).
Try Tokyo:
http://www.nibiruresearch.com/archives/2007/120207.html
or Florence:
http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archives/2007/061707.htm
Yeah I agree Anchorage is not an easy town to "walk" around in. They keep hiring consultants from Portland to try to get it right some day and now hope to develope town centers. It is a car town, make that a SUV/truck town. I have lived there for many years and just know that you need to be south in your old age. Also lived and worked in Hong Kong, now that is a fun place to move around on your feet. Like the narrow streets focus, need to have a limited land basis to get that started. It does make for a more interesting enviroment, high density and multi use. Wish we had more of it in the US.
I felt a lot of nostalgia looking at the pictures of Japan. I lived there for six years without a car. A second time I lived there three years with my family. We inherited a car from my brother but we rarely used it. We lived at the end of a really narrow street. My wife was always worried that on the way out she'd meet up with another woman coming and that neither of them being able to drive in reverse they'd be stuck there all day.
One of my fondest memories is having Sapporo ramen and a can of beer sitting under the canopy of a street vendor.
Japan is probably rather well prepared for living with fewer (not zero) fossil fuels. As you can see from the photos, it is very easy to live by walking, biking and train riding in Japan. They still have to worry about the fossil fuels needed to propel the trucks and to make plastics.
It would be really hard for the US to live like Japanese do. It would take a generational change. Living in Tokyo is like experiencing Christmas shopping every day.
We are an island that imports 100% of its energy. I shudder when I think of the long term viability of Japan. Especially when Indonesia cuts off our gas in a couple of years.
I must nitpick here a bit. "As you can see from the photos, it is very easy to live by walking, biking and train riding in
JapanTokyo"Outside of Tokyo it is very much a car culture. Ask a Japanese person his/her hobbies and a common answer is driving. Japanese love to drive. And outside of Tokyo or maybe Osaka/Kyoto you must have a car to get anywhere.
It is not so hard to live without a car in the rural areas. They are well served by buses, which will take you to the local train station. I traveled all over the countryside for mountaineering/skiing/etc., including some extremely rural areas, almost entirely on public transit. It is a special pleasure to take a bus to the start of a week-long ski mountaineering trip, and then take the train back.
However, I agree fully that Japanese people love to drive around -- mostly for pleasure rather than necessity. This is a country with seven international car companies, after all.
I want to introduce several examples of real train/walking based cities, instead of the mediocre Portland.
Most countries in the world import almost all their fossil fuels. Not many countries have meaningful fossil fuel deposits. Japan is no different there than France, Italy, Thailand, Korea, Argentina, Spain, India, etc. etc.
I want to introduce several examples of real train/walking based cities, instead of the mediocre Portland.
I would like your input on real train/walking based cities. Do you feel they exist in the US? What qualities other than narrow streets do you feel make a city successful? They cannot be "winter" cities ie narrow streets make snow removal/storage pretty tough. I am living in Santiago Chile now, great town, tough air pollution in the winter, many parts are walkable & it has a good metro. Local culture here is car centered. Valparaiso on the coast is very cool and a walking city.
I found this article to be most interesting: World likely to rely on Saudi oil in the future The IEA is still saying that Saudi oil production will rise to 17.5 mb/d by 2030 and their share of world oil production will rise from 11% to 15%. The world is depending on Saudi Arabia to bail us out. Can they succeed?
They are installing down hole pumps in an attempt to increase production:
The question is, will these pumps actually cause the wells to produce more oil, or just act as super straws to pull the oil out faster? At any rate Saudi is pulling out all the stops to keep the oil flowing. They have plugged some wells above the high water mark, modified others from vertical wells to short arm horizontal wells. These two modifications allow them to pull oil only from the very top of the reservoir, avoiding the water just below. And all their new wells are horizontal MRC (Maximum Reservoir Contact) wells. Now, in areas where the pressure is dropping, they are installing down hole pumps.
Wood Mackenzie says they will get to 12.5 mb/d but in 2011 instead of 2009. But Matt Simmons says the argument will soon be settled.
Ron Patterson
It is one thing to get the commodities out of the ground, it is another to get the commodities to the destinations that require them. The world is bumping up against a lot of limiting factors including Peak Everything and Peak Port Capacities. Do TPTB spend $billions$ or $trillions$ to expand port facilities now, with the threat of rising sea level on the horizon? The perfect storm is brewing and I dont see continual economic expanison surviving it.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IL05Dj01.html
...snip...'And even more ominous, The Economist magazine reports that "The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the costs of shipping 'dry' goods such as iron ore, coal and grain around the world, dipped this week after hitting an all-time high on November 13th. But it is still up 154% from a year earlier." In fact, "The cost of shipping iron ore from Brazil to China is now more than the cost of digging up the ore itself."
The reason is the same old one, "As with so much to do with commodities, the extraordinary rise in freight rates is partly because of China's appetite for raw materials."
And this means that the transportation pipeline is already too small to accommodate such a large movement of goods, as "A dearth of new ships, and flotillas waiting to berth in overcrowded ports (especially in Australia), are also driving rates higher," meaning that even if enough stuff could be grown or mined, very little of this surplus could be delivered, as the transportation system is maxed out already!...snip...
The Panama Canal has been operating at capacity for over a decade (and Panamax size is too small for best economic operation),
The new 2014 expansion (a 3rd set of locks that can take vessels x2.5 Panamax) will fundamentally change shipping costs from Brazil to China and back. Even post-Peak Oil. Likewise Venezuela-China.
Best Hopes for Long Lived Energy Efficient Infrastructure,
Alan
New Orleans and Mobile are tied for being the closest Northern Gulf ports to the Panama Canal.
Global circulation patterns were very different when the isthmus of Panama was below sea level. Wouldn't it be interesting, in all sorts of ways, if part of AGW remediation involved simply opening all of the locks and expanding the width of the facility?
SCT
We discussed this a while back in Feb 2006
Living in the Eemian
Posted by Stuart Staniford on February 20, 2006 - 9:44pm
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545#comments
Whoa. You've got the link, no need to post all the comments, including the junk between them.
Edited to cut it down to just the link.
I'm only a few months old so I missed this discussion. I'm glad its already been hammered out here - definitely a last ditch sort of measure, and it would appear that the excavation required vastly exceeds our capabilities even during the time of cheap oil.
you're just a baby! :)
It's been suggested that the appearance of the Isthmus of Panama then blocked the circulation between the Atlantic and Pacific, and that this may have resulted in the beginning of the last round of Ice Ages some 3 million years ago. One way of looking at the paleoclimate record since is that we are still in an Ice Age, with the present warmth being a temporary interlude. However, re-establishing the flow might produce warmer conditions of some sort, not alleviate the warming which may result from increased CO2 and other additions to the atmosphere. The thermohaline circulation (THC) wouldn't be the same as it is now, which probably would reduce the transport of warm water from the tropical North Atlantic to higher latitudes. Other periods with reduced THC flows have been associated with a return to Ice Age conditions, such as during the 1000 year Younger Dryas period.
As for opening the locks on the Panama Canal, they function to lift the ships to higher elevations in staircase fashion, so the ships can travel across the higher elevations in the middle of the Isthmus. Open the locks and dams and the Canal would go dry, after the central lake drained. I do recall a proposed sea level canal, which was promoted as a way of moving ships without locks. That one was to traverse Nicaragua, if memory serves, the proposal being to blast the canal with nuclear explosives. I doubt that the idea would gain acceptance these days. Oh, wait, now we know why Gee Dubyah wants to buy all those "bunker buster" bombs... :-)
E. Swanson
The highest point of the Panama canal is 26m MSL so you would need to pump the water over.
Assuming the canal was dug out to sea level, I wonder how wide the canal would need to be to affect ocean circulation.
Not sure if you have been through Panama - there are the Gatun locks on the Caribbean side and the Miraflores Locks on the Pacific side. Total rise in the Gatun Locks is 85 feet, more than any sea-level rise suggested due to global warming.
Then there is the issue of tides to contend with. The Caribbean, being on the western edge of the Atlantic has minimal tides, whereas on the Pacific side Panama is on the eastern edge of that great ocean and subject to large tides. Locks would be needed just to control tidal flows through the canal, even if somehow the whole thing could be dredged down to sea level.
Is the increase in freight rates because of supply/demand, or because of fuel costs? Is fuel a significant factor in sea-borne shipping? I have a friend in the fireworks industry, and shipping costs (from China, plus rail/truck thereafter) are killing them right now. At some point the cost of shipping cheap trinkets from China half-way around the world will outweigh their labor cost advantage.
600 years ago the Chinese used to build 400 foot long sailing junks for their great trading expeditions.
Maybe time to dig out the blueprints.
It is one thing to get the commodities out of the ground, it is another to get the commodities to the destinations that require them.
Too true. This link from yesterday's FT is of interest Dry bulk bubble might have bouyancy to spare
The 17.5 mbpd number, in 2030, is interesting.
Based on their 2005 to 2006 rate of increase in consumption (+5.7%/year), Saudi Arabia in order to maintain their 2005 net export level of about 9 mbpd (total liquids) would have to increase their production by close to 2% per year from 2005 to 2030, to a production level of 17.3 mbpd in 2030, which again would just maintain the 2005 net export level (based on current rate of increase in consumption).
Their 2007 total liquids production will probably be down by about 10% from 2005. We shall see what happens in 2008.
Westexas..
Greg and I spoke about your conversation with him. I was wondering what were your thoughts on Boone pickens idea of diverting NG to a transportation fuel.
If a push for "light hydrocarbons" (NG + propane/butane) for transportation was coupled with a push to reduce their use in other sectors.
1) Many more Wind Turbines to displace NG for electricity
1b) More nukes (long term)
1c) HV DC transmission and Pumped Storage
2) More insulation, better windows, etc to reduce demand for NG, propane/butane & electricity
3) Tankless & solar hot water heaters to reduce demand for NG, oil, electricity. propane
4) Ground loop Heat pumps to reduce demand for NG and oil in winter and electricity in summer (more efficient than standard a/c) Also solar space heating where applicable.
Conserve and displace NG faster than it depletes !
Best Hopes for a Balanced Energy Policy,
Alan
What do you reckon to using compressed air as storage to run distributed chp systems. You can dump excess wind power into them when its windy, and your chp will run at better efficiency when its cold, windy and you need the heat. Eventually it could be run on bio gas from digestion of waste or gassified biomass. You digester would produce most biogas in the summer, when the wind was at its least. You can survive it being windy and cold as you have a buffer of bio gas and compressed air.
Also what about stripping out SUVs, and fitting them with 2 electric wheel motors, connected up to a series hybrid truck which controls all the wheels on the vehicles its towing. Would be a light road train. Ideally carriages could be made for it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7124156.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7127534.stm
I think there's a future for these things in a renewable electric grid:
http://www.ngk.co.jp/english/products/power/nas/index.html
They are perhaps the most convenient way to store energy from intermittent sources.
As Alan noted, to some extent it makes sense, especially for fleet users. But it's not a solution of course, since we are still talking about fossil fuel consumption.
Thanks ..Westexas & Alan
We are again thinking in the language to which we have become accustomed. "The Saudis will produce 12.5 mb/d by 2011, and they currently produce about 8.6 mb/d." Wrong on both counts. The Saudis don't "produce" oil, nor does most anyone else. We/they have harvested it from a given, limited supply.
We are picking fruit from a vast grove of nearly unimaginable size, but the grove is still limited, and we have only just begun to think about how to grow more fruit.
Can we grow the kind of fruit we need? Yes, ethanol and biodiesel for fuel, and even plastics, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides can be made from plants.
To support 6.6 billion people who require 85 million barrels per day, can we grow enough in the time frame required?
No.
Other focuses (foci?) are needed instead, like community, networking, preparation, and ELP.
For any sustainable human endeavor, there needs to be a cycle of production, harvest, and renewal. Our crops are produced when we plant them, we eat them when we harvest them, and we renew crops with bodily wastes as fertilizer. There also needs to be an energy source. For this general situation, the sun is all that's needed.
Our industrial processes focus mainly on harvest and production. We harvest various ores, and produce them into drinking glasses and cars. We can also renew broken glass and junked cars, but that requires other energy resources like coal, methane, and oil.
The fossil fuel energy sources that power the overwhelming bulk of our society are only harvested. We overwhelmingly play zero part in their production or renewal.
So will the pumps just act as superstraws? Yes. Can the Saudis succeed in producing more oil? No. Can they harvest more oil in the near future? Time will tell. Can they indefinitely harvest more oil? No. Are we past the point where the Saudis or the world as a whole can't increase the harvest? Time will tell.
We harvest the dinosaurs and ferns from last great extinction(Dryas/Jurassic?) and we are planting the current harvest with the extinction of our own 6.6 billion selves so maybe some some future species can harvest us at the peak of their "evolutionary development". This is the meaning of true charity learned just in time forthe Christmas season.
http://www.litquotes.com/quote_title_resp.php?TName=A%20Christmas%20Caro...
"And so, as Tiny Tim observed, God Bless Us, Every One!"
So Literally,
"This is the Body and the Blood of 'Chris'.. who gave his own begotten self, that we may have everlasting commutes!"
- Blessed Be~
Merry Christmas, Savings and Loan! Merry Christmas, Soylent Evergreens!
"Merry Christmas, Soylent Evergreens!" LOL!
Regarding submersible pumps...
Submersible pumps have two main advantages that the Saudis are probably taking advantage of.
1) ESPs move a lot of fluid efficiently especially if you can predict the amount of fluid you have to move to keep the well pumped off. The reason you go to ESPs to move high quantities of fluid is that you don't want your conventional pumps to be bobbing up and down like sewing machines. This causes excessive wear on rods, tubing, and pumps. Especially if you have a high water cut..thus low lubrication.
2) ESPs are used in horizontal wells, since the geometry of such wells causes rods to rub against tubing and wear out the tubing and rods faster. Considering the increase in horizontal drilling and multilateral sidetrack (MRC) wells we read about in Saudi Arabia an increase in the use of ESPs is not surprising.
And yes, of course they are sucking the oil out faster.
Article in today's Financial Times discussing whether or not Saudi oil production has peaked.
The views of the IEA, Matthew Simmons, CERA and Wood Mackenzie all get discussed.
A CERA spokesman says: “Yes, the Saudis are having to invest a lot of effort in keeping production up. But that is the case everywhere,”, but what he doesn't mention is that most countries are already past peak and in decline.
Also, if Saudi Arabia are already, as CERA admit, 'investing a lot of effort in keeping production up', how are they supposed to meet the IEA's projections of 17.5m barrels per day in 2030?
What the IEA seem to be unable to grasp is that even if KSA where to magically increase its production to whatever figure they (the IEA) deems appropriate for the West to consume by whenever, KSA itself will be using up an ever increasing amount. This is the ELM in action, are they blind to the skyscrapers rising out of the sands?
Now, if KSA can only manage a fraction of the increase -say 50% to 12 or 13mbpd and we go PO, oil is going to become very very expensive and KSA will get very rich and they will probably be consuming even more of the stuff -i.e. we will get to Net exports = 0 even sooner...
One possible mitigation: Build out the nuclear option in OPEC Nations so that the the liquid fuels are not burnt to provide electricity. I suggest we rapidly explore the Thorium option to prevent proliferation of fissile materials. India could lead the way on this -they've got more Thorium than you can shake a stick at. The US has loads too. There is no Energy shortage in nature.
Regards, Nick.
Straight form Google news this morning:
Refining capacity strained to take upmore oil supplies causing a drop in price if OPEC increases supply but less gas coming to market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=acvO0B0GTZcQ&refer=u...
Refining Capacity
Oil refiners would be unable to absorb an increase in OPEC output because of constraints on the amount of crude they can turn into fuels, potentially causing prices to drop below $80 a barrel, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a report e-mailed yesterday.
``The incremental supply of crude oil will likely exceed the market's ability to refine it'' because of limited growth in processing capacity, Merrill analysts led by Francisco Blanch said in the report.
Refiners have limited means to increase their cracking capacity, or the ability to turn more of the heavy oil typically produced by OPEC countries into lighter fuels such as gasoline and naphtha, according to Merrill. This constraint indicates additional OPEC supply may exceed demand.
And on divorce causing smalleer households leading to GW:
http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9828389-54.html?tag=newsmap
As if the burden of divorce weren't bad enough, people with failed marriages can be blamed for global warming, according to a study by Michigan State University.
Divorced couples use up more space in their respective homes, which amounts to to 38 million more rooms worldwide to light, heat and cool, noted the report.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn12990-for-the-enviro...
Opec does not typically produce heavy oil. It produces a wide range of grades. This seems to be even more evidence that the increase from KSA is a increment of difficult to refine heavy oil.
Gene Guilford's article on Republican American is interesting not in the misunderstandings it repeats which we've all heard before, but in the comments section beneath his article. It seems that every one of the 11 respondents so far understands what peak oil means, and disagrees with Gene.
Fear needs to be only an intermediate response before your brain kicks in and says, "so what will I do about it?"
As long as the next response is not either stick-your-head-in-the-sand denial, or omg-we're-all-gonna-die hopelessness, then we're on the right track.
But there is nothing wrong with fear in and of itself.
The only thing we have to fear is ignorance regarding the survival and motivational value of fear within the system of human experience.
Somewhat related to your comment 710 -
R.e. the announcement that Iran stopped its WMD program years ago, announced by the same folks who have been trumping it up to begin with, smacks of manipulation.
The effect on the general Q public?
Yeah, the world is a safe place again. I can go ahead and buy that "insert consumable here". I can run up my cc and insure a $upper great Xma$ for the whole family. YEA!!!
Fear on
Fear off
Jump through the hoop sparkey
I missed one thing we need to be aware of when confronted with fear, prompted by your comment. Namely, the belief that someone or something else ("the government", "technology", "they") will solve the problems you face personally.
The list of PO aware people dissing him gets longer all the time under the article. Maybe we activists are doing that loudly and all the same people as we alsways look for such articles in a targeted manner. This could however help the average Joe who just happens to read the article to decide whether it is BS or not be and discredit the opinion of the journalist. A very good tactic.
In some sense of the word "good" perhaps. In other senses they could just be trolls. You have to make the effort to keep the discourse civil.
You said, and all the same people as we alsways look for such articles in a targeted manner. — well, duh. Leanan looks for such articles in a targeted manner every morning.
[edit] Now that I've read the article and the comments, I have to agree. The article was the troll :)
Did I miss the discussion on Iran's nuclear non-capability?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/washington/04assess.html?hp
This, surely, pulls the plug on residual fears of another Gulf War. Which should, at least, take some tension out of the market.
During the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, I formed the opinion that Saddam was double-bluffing : denying that he had weapons of mass delusion, while hinting that he really had them... while actually not having any.
Ahmadinedjad has been playing much the same game. Like Saddam, he was convinced that Bush would blink in the end... and unlike Saddam, he was right.
(All hail to the US "intelligence community" for regaining its honour in the face of political pressure.)
It may pull the plug on residual fears; whether it pulls the plug on an attack is in no way assured. My guess is that it is postponed to April. Relax and shop.