DrumBeat: December 8, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 8, 2007 - 10:14am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Michael T. Klare: Iraq and Climate Change
When our grandchildren and more distant descendants assemble in such classrooms as may be available and ask their teachers, “Why did our ancestors not take effective action to prevent the catastrophic effects of climate change?” one of the answers will surely be, “The war in Iraq.”
Peak Oil And The Vision In The Mirror
If you don't know what peak oil is, then, first of all, you are not alone. Most people don't seem to have a clue about it. And, even some that do, don't seem to get the full implications. Let me lay it out for you as succinctly as I can...Money is nothing. Energy is everything.
The story of oil has been the story of America since the Second World War. Cheap fuel and the availability of the automobile has transformed America into a land of sprawling suburbs, large homes, and long commutes. Oil has literally powered American lifestyles and culture in a way that no other single factor has.The cost of oil has nearly doubled since last year.
Oil production world wide has been essentially flat since January 2005, hovering between 83 and 85 million barrels a day.
Iran’s pragmatic energy policy
In the previous crises, the oil-producing countries were blamed as the major cause of the rise, but this time they were not criticized very much.
Why the New 35-MPG Fuel Economy Standard Is a Bad Idea
The problem is that gasoline is too cheap, and it always has been. Diesel, too. I know, that might sound preposterous to someone who’s just dropped the best part of a day’s pay to fill up the pickup, but hear me out. Really.The profit margin on one big luxury car or truck is high enough to allow Detroit to sell a half-dozen little econoboxes for little or no profit. The people who buy these huge gas guzzlers haven’t hit the point where the cost of fuel overpowers their need to drive a car big enough and heavy enough that it needs its own zip code. Classic economics theory calls this an elastic marketplace, and it just hasn’t been stretched tight enough—yet.
Alaska: Momentum builds behind energy report
Griffith said Alaska is “like a Third World Country” when it comes to energy consumption.The state’s rural communities face serious energy related problems and have no easy solutions. Moreover, high energy costs are forcing rural residents to flee the Bush in favor of Alaska’s urban areas, he said.
Texas fortunate to find the silver lining in clouds of high energy costs
The Texas economy has been tied to oil prices since the 1880s, and especially after the "Spindletop" gusher more than a century ago. Historically, the Lone Star State actually faced economic losses with low oil prices and economic benefits with high oil prices. The price of oil had a tremendous impact on the economy in the 1970s and early 1980s when Texas' economy quickly expanded, adding both employment and income growth as the national outlook sputtered. (The "Energy Crisis" in the rest of the U.S. was an "Oil Boom" in Texas.)
A vision of parking and transportation
The future of parking downtown could take some unforeseen U-turns. We are on the cusp of the new era of Peak Oil, when consumption quickly outstrips any demonstrated capacity to pump and refine new petroleum sources. Yes, there is the possibility of refining plentiful oil shale, but not very easily nor inexpensively.
A Colorado Solution to the energy Crisis
Colorado’s investments in wind, solar, biomass, and other renewable resources have created thousands of jobs and returned millions of dollars in new revenue. By diversifying our energy portfolio, we are saving money, reducing the demand for water, cutting carbon emissions, promoting public health, and protecting our national security.
International unions gather in Mexico to fight state-owned oil company's 'corrupt' union
Labor advocates and union organizers from the Americas vowed Friday to transform Mexican state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos' allegedly corrupt and repressive union and replace it with an organization that better represents workers.
UK: Homing In On Domestic Energy Use
Although the HEAT (Home Energy And Technology) Conference focussed on products that could, potentially, reduce the amount of energy used in the home, it was Jeremy Nicholson of the Energy Intensive Users Group (EIUG) who outlined the key problem facing the UK energy industry. According to Nicholson, nearly a third (20 Gigawatts) of the of the UK’s electricity generating capacity is being retired during the next 10 years and it is, in his view, unlikely that the current renewable technologies are going to fill the gap. He sees peak oil as being less of a problem than the stranglehold Iran and Russia could exert on the gas supply industry.
Bangladeshi Dipal Barua receives 'Alternate Nobel'
Dipal Barua from Bangladesh and Christopher Weeramantry from Sri Lanka were among the peace and environment activists from four countries honoured with the annual 'Alternate Nobel prize'.The Right Livelihood awards were given to the activists Friday for their contribution in the fields of renewable energy, peace and fare market practices.
Gutting and rebuilding nuclear reactors is a mix of heavy lifting and cutting-edge robotics. Qualified workers are at a premium. and the OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency recently warned of a looming shortage of qualified people to keep nuclear reactors operating, or build new ones. Bruce Power has set up its own training centre for the rebuilding work. Currently, 1,800 people are working on the first phase – rebuilding Bruce A reactors 1 and 2 – of the $5.2 billion renovation project.
Offshore wind key to Euro renewable target
If Europe wants to meet its 20 percent binding target for renewable energy by 2020, it must increase its use of offshore wind, delegates heard at the opening of the Offshore Wind Conference in Berlin, Germany.
Back in 1976—with Gerald Ford president, Dick Cheney his chief of staff, Donald Rumsfeld secretary of defense—the Ford administration bought the Shah’s argument that Iran needed a nuclear program to meet its future energy requirements.That argument, of course, is even more valid today, with the price that can be obtained for oil and the specter of Peak Oil.
When I was in Japan last month, I saw real action in action. After a day of meetings at the Foreign Ministry, a young diplomat escorted me to the entrance just after 5:00. We walked through a darkened hallway; I assumed that we were in a part of the building under renovation. Not so – my guide explained to me that all non-essential lights were turned off “to save energy and the environment.” We came to the elevator bank, where 5-6 people were waiting in front of an elevator even though the elevator next to it was there and empty. I gestured toward it, and my guide again explained that after 5:00 only one elevator ran – the others were blocked.
Whither Nigeria on climate change?
As a result of the energy crisis, nearly every business and individual generate own electricty. Consequent on this, hundreds of thousands of generating sets, burning any of kerosene, diesel or petrol are imported annually. The power problem is so bad that many companies do not operate on public electricity at all, instead purchasing many generators and use them to power their operations in shifts, just like workers.
World War III is closer than you think (review of Tom Clancy's Endwar video game)
The story is set in the year 2020 and is focused on three factions. The three factions consist of the United States, Europe, and a newly empowered Russia. However, there are tensions between the United States and its European allies across the waters. Apparently there is a conflict between the two about the United States militarizing space by launching a space station called the Freedom Star. With this newly established space station, the United States can deploy troops anywhere in the world within 90 minutes. So where is Russia within all this? Well, they are laying back and reaping the rewards from the oil supply and gas supply since the rest of the world is in an energy crisis. With this new profit, they are able to re militarize themselves and become a superpower once again.
With Frontlines, we wanted to do something close to what people know like the peak oil - you've got $100 barrels of oil now - it drops but then it goes up to a hundred again. So we began to research it like hell, asking what the possibilities were if the supply ran out, or came close to running out. In our research we found a lot of scary things; you get all these hypothetical theories that come out and basically a lot of them are very realistic.
What a fossil-fuel free agriculture might look like
So we can envision each NYC-type city being surrounded by 8 million times 6,000 square feet, or 48 billion square feet of farmland, or 1,722 square miles, in other words: about 6 times the area of the 300 square miles of the city. So only about 2 percent of the land area of the continental U.S., theoretically, could feed and house the American population.
Imagine a garden that needs no weeding, watering, digging or feeding and can be left to look after itself for weeks, even months, on end. Go further: it's organic, wildlife-friendly, disease resistant, reduces your weekly food bill and brings fashionable foraging to your doorstep.It might sound too good to be true, but this garden can be a reality for anyone with some outdoor space, whether it's the backyard of an inner-city terrace or the grounds of a country vicarage.
ONE of the odder features of last weekend's vote in Venezuela was that staple foods were in short supply. Something similar happened in Russia before its parliamentary election. Governments in both oil-rich countries had imposed controls on food prices, with the usual consequences. Such controls have been surprisingly widespread — a knee-jerk response to one of the most remarkable changes that food markets, indeed any markets, have seen for years: the end of cheap food.
We would be fools to banish global business from the great climate battle
One could go further, arguing that it is not just excessive consumerism but capitalism's very nature that makes it incompatible with the survival of our planet. For capitalism requires constant economic growth, yet the Earth's resources are finite. Capitalist logic says we must buy, sell and consume more and more each year. Nature's logic says we can't.
Countries generating emissions must pay the cost, and the fairest and simplest way of forcing them to do so is through tax.
Peak Oil And Global Warming: Inextricably Linked
If we’re running out of oil and natural gas, why should we worry about the global warming triggered by burning these rapidly depleting fuels? Won’t atmospheric carbon dioxide and hence global warming diminish as the fuels themselves dwindle?Regrettably, things are not that simple. Peak oil doesn’t in and of itself guarantee a sufficiently rapid decline in human carbon dioxide generation, for several reasons.
It's tempting to imagine that one day soon prices will drop to the point that economic considerations alone allow photovoltaic panels rapidly to displace much of today's fossil-fuel-fired electric-power generation. But the true situation is more complicated. It turns out that the predominant type of solar panel being produced today cannot solve the world's energy problems anytime soon—simply because the device takes too much energy to manufacture. Fortunately, alternative strategies exist for making photovoltaic cells using much less energy, and one promising example is now beginning to be made in significant quantities.
Costa Rica, China to explore for oil
Costa Rica and China announced Friday they have agreed to jointly explore for oil and natural gas in the Central American country.It wasn't clear if the proposed exploration would be on land or offshore.
Nuclear energy not sustainable yet, says Dutch Minister
The Dutch government believes that nuclear energy is not sustainable as of now; hence it has not included nuclear energy in its clean energy policy.
Commission calls for $357 billion in passenger rail investment
- A federal transportation policy commission is recommending a $357.2 billion investment - or $8.1 billion a year - to significantly expand intercity passenger rail service by 2050.
Developing world must be able to lift emissions: Nobel winner
Developing nations must be allowed to boost carbon emissions to lift millions out of poverty, says the head of the Nobel prize-winning climate change panel slated to formally get the award on Monday."If you have the case of India, a half a billion people who do not even have electricity, what mitigation (of carbon emissions) can you carry out?" said Rajendra K. Pachauri, who shared the prize with former US vice-president Al Gore
Peak Oil Passnotes: Where Will Crude Oil Be at Christmas Time?
We might not make it to $66.60. It is true. Do you remember our prediction of the price of crude oil on the Nymex on Christmas Day? Unlike last year where we were on the money with our prediction for Christmas Eve to within a few cents - something we said at the time was very lucky indeed - this year we are unlikely to reach our ordained target of the devils price.So look, we have gone through all the things we think are distorting the market. The regular readers of this column know what they are, market distortion, markets and ... well ... the market. Markets do not reflect reality; they reflect the reality of power.
Iran drops dollar from oil deals
Major crude producer Iran has completely stopped carrying out its oil transactions in dollars, Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said on Saturday, labelling the greenback an "unreliable" currency."At the moment, selling oil in dollars has been completely halted, in line with the policy of selling crude in non-dollar currencies," Nozari was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency.
Bleak future for Iraqi oil law
Iraq's Oil Minister Hussain Al Shahristani has said 'irreconcilable' differences between various groups in the country's parliament will scupper any chance of the much delayed oil law being passed in the near future, reported Reuters.
THE possibility of Edinburgh becoming one of the first UK cities to actively reduce its dependency on oil will be discussed at a meeting in the Capital tomorrow.
Shortage prompts delay in medical tests
Thousands of patients are facing delays in crucial medical tests because of a shortage of a radioactive substance used in those examinations — all because of the shutdown of one nuclear reactor in Canada.
Europe knows US can mine coal, but can it deliver?
A potential boom in U.S. coal exports to Europe could slow if bottlenecks at U.S. railroads and ports hinder deliveries, sources on both sides of the Atlantic said this week."Everybody's talking some very big numbers for U.S. coal exports, but there seem to be be real problems with the logistics - rail and port capacity," said one European trader. "I think it remains to be seen how much can actually find its way to the European market next year."
South Korea's worst oil spill blackens coast
South Korean workers using skimmers and containment fences battled on Saturday to clean up the worst oil spill in the country's history, as the slick washed ashore near a nature preserve on the west coast.
There are signs that the White House's intractable position doesn't represent the American people's. The Bush-Cheney oilmen may be as committed as Saudi Arabia to milking fossil fuels for as long as possible, but delegates are aware that when the new climate treaties get hammered out in Copenhagen, Denmark, in 2009, a new team will be running the White House. The rest of the world is getting the message that change is on the horizon.
Australia says poor nations must help stop climate change
Both rich and poor nations must commit to slashing greenhouse gas emissions if the world wants to solve global warming, Australia's trade minister said Saturday at a landmark climate change summit.



I normally come to TOD for the oilfield stuff, not the financial apocalypse stuff, but there's a real schadenfreude-inducer over here in Slate about the amplified effects of SubPrime in NYC
http://www.slate.com/id/2179390/
Leanan - if we just mail these to you, will you consider them for the DrumBeat story list? How does that work, exactly?
I think it would be better if you post them here like most people do so others can read them. leanan can't add every story she finds to the drumbeats.
Some people do e-mail me stories, and I consider them, but I don't check my e-mail that often. I'm not that good at e-mail, I confess. I usually don't post financial stories up top, anyway.
I would say you should just post new stories as comments. I think they get just as much attention in the comments as they do up top.
If you really want it posted up top, submit it as news at PeakOil.com. I check the queue there a lot more often than I check my e-mail.
Leanan, thanks for the tip. I had not been checking the news at PeakOil.com. Just checked it and found this animated cartoon. It is a keeper.
http://peakoil.com/article33887.html
Ron Patterson
Ron, excellent. Definitely one to pass on to every one you know. Thanks.
Richard Wakefield
Heh. We TOD staffers have been admiring that. I think there will probably be a dedicated post about it.
I wonder if "OilyBoyd" is the guy who posts as OilCanBoyd here?
Note that our link is posted at the end...
That really is a wonderful piece of animation. In two minutes it communicates the whole peak oil concept without saying a word. Brilliant.
Anyone got a few million bucks sitting around so this could be shown during the Super Bowl? :-)
I've been getting my students to SEE IT, because I try to link peak oil and evolution.
Notice the "evolution" of the car on the uphill ride...
Is this supposed to be a literal representation? No. Its a simple and quite brilliant animation conveying an idea.
Some of the greatest teaching in history has been made by the use of illustrations. Has it worked? I think your comment misses the point but it proves this animations ability to make you think! (not you, but you in a wider sense just to clarify that)
Deceptive Cartoon:
I find the near vertical descent of this cartoon very misleading. ASPO's latest charts and graphs show an all liquids peak of 87 Mbpd in 2010. Forty years later, all liquids is down to 41 Mbd. On average this is 1.15 Mbpd or 1.3% per year. Do you think we can handle a 1.3% decline rate?
And the ASPO knows exactly what will happen? All their prognostications are just a best case scenario. Jeffery Brown's Export Land Model indicates we will have a much steeper decline.
I think it is really foolish to expect a gradual slow decline. That is just another form of denial. Producing nations will see an increase in consumption while production declines. Hording will be rampant. And there is the ever possibility of resource wars.
In fact what is happening right now in Nigeria is nothing more than a resource war. Those Nigerians not getting their fair share of the wealth are fighting like hell to get it. And that one particular resource war just took 900,000 bp/d off line.
Nigeria: Country's Production Capacity Drops By 900,000bpd
And as the price of oil climbs higher and higher and people get hungry because of the consequences of peak oil, the violence will get greater and greater.
A slow decline of 1.3% per year, for decades? You are dreaming. I would predict a best case scenario of a drop of about 5% per year. Less than 1% for the next few years, then 2 to 3% for just a few years, then sometime between 2015 and 2020 a drop of at least 5% per year, barring severe resource wars. In that case the drop will be much steeper.
Ron Patterson
Drudge Report headline today (so far there is no story linked):
OIL-RICH NATIONS USE MORE ENERGY, CUTTING EXPORTS...
Here's the link to that article: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/08/business/09oil.php?WT.mc_id=rssbu...
"Ten years from now, world capacity to produce oil could be 20 percent higher than today," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "But a lot will depend on how the geopolitics work out."
Well done idiot... No mention of Peak Oil just Geopolitics WOO!!
Yergin et al are not idiots without a cause, the geopolitics he cites is code for Exxon's "just get us access", namely more resource wars. They are not passive in their denial.
Well done. Well done. Well done. What else is there to say to Jeffrey Brown, and his leading edge work on the Declining Exports story? Looks like this theme may now make it to the national edition of the NYT for Sunday, 08 December 2007. Possibly the front page. Ho Ho Ho. Merry Christmas.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/business/worldbusiness/09oil.html?hp
Gregor
I had several discussions with the NYT reporter on the topic of net oil exports. I suppose they felt that they had to include our buddy Yergin for balance.
From the NYT website:
Other media outlets are picking up the story:
http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/administration/afp-news.html?i...
from the IHT article...
"It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years," said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice University.
Rice University is just a stone's throw away from WT in Dallas (OK, Rice is located in Houston but Texans can throw stones a long way!) :-) I'll bet Ms Jaffe is familiar with WT's work.
Try this
Posted originally by J Orlin Grabbe.
best
I was going to ask the same question, but figured if I lurked around a bit, someone else would ask.
I am hard pressed to think after all the work you do researching and moderating the DrumBeats, you would have time to mess with email. A good portion of my day is taken just *reading* the DrumBeat!
I am very thankful for access to this forum and all the work you and the others contribute. Once in a blue moon, I stumble on a gem, but the motherlode of gems is here.
Steve
I've been reading the TOD:Canada debt meltdown stuff for a while now, so it's becoming rare for me to encounter an article that makes me even MORE pessimistic about how this stuff is going to unwind, but this little nugget did the trick:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/2007/12/straight-talk-on-the-mort...
Check out the comments; one mortgage broker after another saying "Yep, he nailed it. I've been trying to tell people this for months". Worrisome indeed.
Ray: IMO, the subprime debacle is a preview of how PO will be addressed in North America. The inherent problems with these totally unregulated (rife with fraud) markets have been known for years, yet financial institutions eagerly threw their shareholders money over the cliff with abandon. Why? Simply because it WASN'T THEIR MONEY. From Mozilla with his $100 million cashout to Chuck Prince, all these guys really focus on is their own personal pocketbook when the SHTF. They continually plead ignorance when it comes to burning these companies, but they are as cunning as anyone when it comes to their own money. Which brings us to PO-for years now anyone that is interested knows the score. What are the elite doing? Some (like Buffett and Gates) are quietly positioning themselves to profit, others are attempting to personally profit by spreading disinformation. When TSHF it will be the same as this subprime trip- "Who knew? This was all unforseen". CERA will be all over the media much like Greenspun is today and from their lifeboats they will rule the passengers still on the Titanic.
Ray, nice catch. Hanson is especially familiar with Cali real estate but I noticed that he used the term 'costal states' several times in his column. I have used his last paragraph summation of possibilities below, from your link.
...snip...'One final thought. How can any of this get repaired unless home values stabilize? And how will that happen? In Northern California, a household income of $90,000 per year could legitimately pay the minimum monthly payment on an Option ARM on a million home for the past several years. Most Option ARMs allowed zero to 5% down. Therefore, given the average income of the Bay Area, most families could buy that million dollar home. A home seller had a vast pool of available buyers.
Now, with all the exotic programs gone, a household income of $175,000 is needed to buy that same home, which is about 10% of the Bay Area households. And, inventories are up 500%. So, in a nutshell we have 90% fewer qualified buyers for five-times the number of homes. To get housing moving again in Northern California, either all the exotic programs must come back, everyone must get a 100% raise or home prices have to fall 50%. None, except the last sound remotely possible.
What I am telling you is not speculation. I sold BILLIONs of these very loans over the past five years. I saw the borrowers we considered ‘prime’. I always wondered ‘what WILL happen when these things adjust is values don’t go up 10% per year’.'
"How can any of this get repaired unless home values stabilize? And how will that happen?..."
Does anyone else see an opportunity here to direct public policy responses to this crisis to advance an agenda of more TOD?
I'm not exactly sure what that agenda should be...my first reaction was...bulldozers, lots and lots of bulldozers. To have gov't buy and bulldoze foreclosed properties so as to destroy some supply and put a floor under house prices. But a bulldozer is such a blunt instrument, there should be more effective ways...
After all it is naive to deny government currently has a huge role in almost all aspects of residential real estate markets. From FHA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, HUD, tax policies and subsidies, local zoning, you name it...
Government at all levels are going to be called upon to address this crisis at some point, guaranteed.
Should we not insist that any of our tax dollars spent to give any sort of relief to distressed communities be directed towards properties where services and infrastructure are already available, and relatively less relief for property which might have to be abandoned anyway in an era of FF shortages?
Just a thought, as later on in this crisis when policy gets developed in an ad-hoc, panic driven mode, it will be too late.
I saw that when it came out. I didn't post the link because I was under the impression that Stoneleigh had included it.
While TV isn't like being there in person, anyone that has an ability to read body language clearly realizes that Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, el al are really spooked about something.
They know what's coming and they know they can't stop it, they are just trying to buy time to allow the connected and the leeches to cash out at the expense of the silent majority.
If you were pretty sure the crap was going to hit the fan on your watch,you might look a little spooked too..
Rayrick, Musashi,
we did include it in the Finance Round Up.
OK then, an amusing convergence here at ft.com
Unfortunately the author was unable to wedge in a global warming angle, but apart from that it's a perfect DrumBeat story. Full Pollyanna-ish scoop at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/60e1076a-a1b8-11dc-a13b-0000779fd2ac.html but may be register-walled...
This is a great article, thanks. And reminds me of another article from the NYTimes a week or so ago:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/28/business/worldbusiness/28petrodollars....
--Jennifer
Plucky,
I posted the article in yesterday's Finance Round Up. You can mail finance articles to Stoneleigh.
Losses in tax revenues for all levels of government will be a glowing hot iron in the near future. Maintenance of infrastructure (road, water, etc) will suffer, as will education, health care, and many more fields. Raising taxes is hardly a solution, since people's decreased income and asset values, which cause the losses, won't allow for it.
Substantial losses from public money funds invested in CDO's, ABCP and MBS on top of the tax revenue decreases, are a near certainty for many local government levels.
ilargi, not just local governements. I happen to know an auditor for one of the US states; without any prompting from me she called some of that state's investments "garbage".
Ordinarily, in a recession state and local employment tend to be more stable than private sector and so tend to moderate the impact of the recession. This time around I think we'll see substantial layoffs from state and local government as well.
Thanks to you and Stoneleigh for the great job you do with the Financial Round Up.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
Wait until next year.
This year the pump monkeys might be able to keep the ball in the air long enough for the wall Street mafia to collect their bonuses.
High stakes at Bruce Power
Fire at Syncrude oilsands upgrader hits output
Re: American bummer in Bali.
Someone needs to tell the delegates and the rest of the world that America's government doesn't respond to the desires of the American people any more, whether it's in regard to global warming, education, health care, foreign wars or...you name it. It doesn't respond now and it won't with a new administration in 2009. America is now controlled by corporate interests, the "military-industrial complex" we know so well. It has been for quite some time, it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, the process is actually accelerating and both political parties prove it nearly every day.