DrumBeat: December 9, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 9, 2007 - 10:34am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tom Whipple: We Know We'll Run Out — the Big Question Is 'When?'
Not only are supplies of cheap oil dwindling; the world's demand for oil is climbing rapidly. This is the primary reason we have seen the price of oil go from $20 to nearly $100 a barrel in this decade. Most of the increased demand is coming from China, India and other Asian countries. However, the oil exporting states such as those in the Persian Gulf, Russia and Venezuela are starting to keep an increasing share of their production for domestic use.For the United States this is all very bad news.
We Need To Face Prospect of Dire Effects On All Of Us
When supply for oil and natural gas can no longer keep pace with demand, prices will rise and problems begin. Since oil and natural gas are the most concentrated and flexible energy resources ever found and account for two-thirds of the energy we use, the implications of them declining are ominous. There are no magic bullets — not nuclear, coal, oil sands, biofuels, hydrogen, wind, or solar — that will fully replace oil and gas. We must learn to get by with less energy – a lot less.
Peak oil: A problem that’s not going away
The Cantarell oil field in the Bay of Campeche in Mexico was a national treasure — the third-largest oil field ever found. But after 30 short years the field’s production is petering out. Mexico’s national oil company has informed the United States that the field is in terminal decline and will not be able to export by about 2012. That’s very bad news for us. Cantarell supplies about 12 percent of all U.S. oil. Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, Britain’s North Sea fields, Kuwait’s Burgan field, Russia’s Samatlor field-the list of mega-giants in decline goes on. Sadly, the second half of an oil field’s production is typically harder and slower to extract than the first half.
As Iraqis Vie for Kirkuk’s Oil, Kurds Become Pawns
his unstable city can ill afford much more delay and uncertainty. The fusion of oil, politics and ethnic tensions make Kirkuk one of the most potentially explosive places in the country, and its fate is seen as a crucial issue by all sides in the debate about whether Iraq will eventually be partitioned among Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shiite Arabs.
Playing politics with heating costs
Chairman Markey says there is an oil shortage, but wants to keep the ban on oil and gas exploration in some of the most prospective U.S. areas - the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, much of the West, and Alaska. He wants to raise taxes on oil companies and change offshore leasing terms put in place by the Clinton Administration. Those tax and lease terms allowed Chevron, a U.S. company, to make a huge oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico that was otherwise impossible. Billions in additional investment could add 50 percent to U.S. proved oil reserves by 2011. These measures would prevent any such effort, raise prices, cut domestic oil exploration, and increase imports.
Koreans Struggle to Clean Up Oil Spill
Thousands of people used shovels and buckets Sunday to clean up a devastating oil spill at a scenic beach in South Korea's western coast, some battling headaches and nausea from the stench.
Country may face 60 percent LPG shortage after de-linking of prices
The country may face a shortage of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) by 60 percent in near future after de-linking the LPG prices with international market, a senior official in Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) told Daily Times here on Saturday.
Petrol smuggling blamed for Mekong farmers’ fuel shortage
Farmers in the Mekong River Delta are faced with a serious shortage of fuel for the upcoming season as thousands of litres of fuel are being smuggled out of the country every day.Hundreds of boats on the waterways of the south-western province of Kien Giang are carrying petrol to Cambodia where it can be sold at a higher price than in Viet Nam.
Hydrogen Car Is Here, but Where’s the Hydrogen Economy?
It’s one thing to have a few hydrogen cars, and another thing entirely to transform an energy and transportation system built on fossil fuels into one built on hydrogen generated without producing carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse-gas emission linked to recent global warming. In a 2004 report, the National Academy of Sciences said such a transition was probably decades away.
A Personal Evaluation of Nuclear Energy in Turkey - 2007
We shall enter into a serious energy crisis in 2008-2009, which is foreseen by all parties. Our big players of public and private enterprises have foreseen the bottleneck. They had meetings one after another. Turkish energy market is not so easy, not so profitable. It is a very tough sector. It is a very difficult market. Public enterprises cannot make new investments, they have no financial resources to allocate, no money to spend.
$10b Petro Rabigh project to diversify Saudi economy
The integrated oil refinery and petrochemical complex of Petro Rabigh will prove a tipping point in the kingdom's efforts to diversify its economy and forge the development of sustainable downstream industries.
Kingdom Hikes Subsidies of Rice, Baby Milk
Saudi Arabia yesterday announced plans to subsidize sales of rice in the country at the rate of SR1,000 per ton. The subsidy for baby milk will go from SR2 to SR12 per kilogram as part of efforts to reduce the financial burden on public caused by soaring consumer prices.
Efforts to Harvest Ocean’s Energy Open New Debate Front
Chris Martinson and his fellow fishermen catch crab and shrimp in the same big swell that one day could generate an important part of the Northwest’s energy supply. Wave farms, harvested with high-tech buoys that are being tested here on the Oregon coast, would strain clean, renewable power from the surging sea.They might make a mess of navigational charts, too.
“I don’t want it in my fishing grounds,” said Mr. Martinson, 40, who docks his 74-foot boat, Libra, here at Yaquina Bay, about 90 miles southwest of Portland. “I don’t want to be worried about driving around someone else’s million-dollar buoy.”
Forest Loss in Sumatra Becomes a Global Issue
Here on the island of Sumatra, about 1,200 miles from the global climate talks under way on Bali, are some of the world’s fastest-disappearing forests.A look at this vast wasteland of charred stumps and dried-out peat makes the fight to save Indonesia’s forests seem nearly impossible.
Trucks Power China’s Economy, at a Suffocating Cost
Every night, columns of hulking blue and red freight trucks invade China’s major cities with a reverberating roar of engines and dark clouds of diesel exhaust so thick it dims headlights.By daybreak in this sprawling metropolis in southeastern China, residents near thoroughfares who leave their windows open overnight find their faces stiff with a dark layer of diesel soot.
Radars Taken Out by Arctic Warming
In another weird sign of global warming…The Pentagon is closing down three of the 20 NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) early-warning radar sites in northern Alaska because the ground they’re built on in some cases is literally crumbling into the Arctic Ocean as a result of erosion caused by waves on ice-free waters, military officials at the U.S. Northern Command tell me. One site, Point Lonely, a short-range radar on Alaska’s North Slope, was closed specifically because of soil erosion. In two other cases, short-range radars in Bullen Point and Wainwright, are being shuttered for both erosion and budget reasons.
LAST June, Jim Manzi, a longtime software executive, laid out a case in The National Review for the need for conservatives to accept the “reality” of global warming (nationalreview.com). It is, he wrote, “no longer possible, scientifically or politically, to deny that human activities have very likely increased global temperatures; what remains in dispute is the precise magnitude of the human impact.”
The world's supply of oil is reaching a production peak, while demand continues to grow rapidly, the panel of experts told the dozen or so lawmakers in attendance. With production unable to meet demand in coming years, oil prices will rise dramatically and gasoline shortages will develop, panelists contended.The scenario described was one of looming disaster, a calamity that the state of Connecticut and the rest of the United States are ill prepared for. And this is not a catastrophe that will come and go, but persist for years, even decades, as the country goes through the painful process of weaning itself off cheap oil and settling into a lifestyle that recognizes the new reality of oil scarcity.
Geothermal power should fuel U.S. military
In times of crisis and shortages the military has always been necessary to preserve order. But this time they too will be in a crisis short of oil and power.
Efficient bulbs given out door to door
Calling their effort "The Light Brigade," the men had collected nearly $160 in donations to purchase bulbs and other people had purchased the light bulbs and donated them, according to Basford....The men are members of the Central Maine Peak Oil Group, which meets at 10:45 a.m. the first Sunday of every month at the church in Waterville to determine ways to curb energy use in central Maine.
One writer finds it's not easy building green
In these times of combined threat from climate change, peak oil, pollution and toxic waste, green home building not only makes sense, it is imperative.But the roadblocks put up to stop residential green building (some on purpose, some accidental, some absurd) are keeping Americans and Vermonters from investing in eco-friendly homes.
The Central Bank: Silent Partner In the Bloodletting
There could be anarchy or tyranny or martial law or detention camps. Who really knows? It’s perfectly normal that the public is worried about “what could happen” in the near future. But, consider this: can we continue moving in the same direction that we are now? Can we keep pouring the blood of innocent people all over the planet while claiming to own the world and all of its resources? Can we keep ignoring the species-threatening challenges of global warming, peak oil and nuclear proliferation?
Australia: Desal option doesn't hold water
It is expected to get the go-ahead, even though the only changes since the original inquiry are "peak oil" and the spectre of climate warming, which are likely to make this type of infrastructure even more redundant in a city striving to maintain liveability.
Cheap Oil is So Yesterday. Time to Start Writing Expensive Oil into Our Plans?
Our fundamental assumptions about the continuing availability of cheap oil to fuel the American lifestyle are being tested. Last year the topic of peak oil – the idea that the world is approaching a maximum limit to oil production - was virtually taboo in polite company and business journals. This November, however, the Wall Street Journal ran a Page One piece: “Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production”. If that's not the definition of peak oil, I'm not sure what is.
Victims of record world oil prices?
Fuelled by geopolitics and speculations world oil price reached a record level of US$99.25 per barrel over the last three weeks. This is beyond what anyone could have predicted 10 years ago. In fact, in the late 1990s the worst-case prediction of many energy economists and experts was that oil may average US$30 per barrel by 2015. The world has seen prices consistently above twice that level since 2002.
UW campus to plug in electric bikes
You're a University of Washington medical student and you need to run an errand at University Village, but you rode the bus to school and it's a long walk from the university health-sciences campus to the shopping center.Beginning next fall, the university will have a solution: electric bikes.
Malaria climbs into warmer highlands
In one New Guinea hilltop village the message was rooted deep in lore: If you hunt in the valley below and sleep there overnight, evil spirits will possess you, you'll become sick, and you'll die.It was a homespun kind of malaria control in the highlands of this western Pacific island, long free of the disease-bearing mosquitoes that plague the hot and humid nights of its lowlands, said Dr. Ivo Mueller, a lead scientist at the Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research.
As the Earth warms, however, "malaria epidemics in the highlands are now basically happening every year," Mueller said.
US 'not ready' to commit at Bali
The United States will come up with its own plan to cut global-warming gases by mid-2008, and won't commit to mandatory caps at the U.N. climate conference here, the chief U.S. negotiator said Saturday."We're not ready to do that here," said Harlan Watson, the State Department's senior climate negotiator and special representative. "We're working on that, what our domestic contribution would be, and again we expect that sometime before the end of the Major Economies process."
In Bali, developing nations push for climate aid
High in the Himalayas, Bhutan is scrambling to fend off the onrushing effects of climate change. Two dozen lakes swollen by glacial melting are in danger of bursting their earthen dams and sweeping through the mountain kingdom like an inland tsunami."This is a big problem for Bhutan" as it tries to adapt to climate change, says Thinley Namgyel, with the country's National Environment Commission.
Venezuelan president promises oil supply for Belarus
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez promised Saturday to supply oil to Belarus signing an agreement with the former Soviet state's visiting president for a joint venture to exploit oil and natural gas in Venezuela."The oil your nation needs ... is here, as much as you need for 100 years, 200 years," Chavez said at a ceremony at Guara Este oilfield in eastern Venezuela.
Turn on the television news, almost nightly, and there will be some story speculating about the price of oil. The price is going up. The price is going down. People are driving more despite the high price.And, of course, ethanol is coming. In reality, ethanol would be a Pyrrhic victory -- trading higher food costs for marginally cheaper fuel. Think the world is mad at us now? Think we're a target for terrorism? Wait until it's cheaper to buy a rocket launcher than food for a block.
Kenya: Outcry Over High Petrol Prices
Kenyan motorists Friday asked the Government to act on the escalating fuel prices.Through the Motorists Association of Kenya, they said the Government had the power to control fuel prices yet it was being reluctant.
Crabber to deliver emergency fuel under unique state plan
The diesel fuel that powers buildings and heats houses in the Aleut village of 460 is critically low, said Phyllis Swetzof, city clerk."If we don't get something in soon, we will stop delivering to homes, because we'll have to focus entirely on serving the power plant," said Swetzof.
Indonesia: Jambi has 500 million tons of exploitable coal deposits
Jambi`s calculated and exploitable coal potential with calories of 4,500 to 5,400 kkal/kg reached 500 million tons.This vast energy potential needs to be exploited and used for economic development, especially electric energy generation, Jambi Governor H Zulkifli Nurdin said here on Friday.
Britain's wind power revolution
Britain is to embark on a wind power revolution that will produce enough electricity to power every home in the country, ministers will reveal tomorrow.
US plan to cut greenhouse gases by 70 per cent signals change of heart on climate change
Key measures to tackle global warming have been approved in the US Congress, signalling the first crack in the granite face that the Bush administration has set against cutting the pollution that causes climate change.
GCC to consider revaluation soon
Gulf Arab oil producers are considering revaluing their dollar-pegged currencies together and will hold talks on a change in the exchange rates "in the next few days", Bahrain’s foreign minister said yesterday.Saudi Arabia and five neighbours preparing for monetary union as early as 2010 ruled out dropping pegs to the tumbling dollar after a summit last week and said any talks on revaluation would be kept secret.
Riyadh may allow foreigners to invest in stocks
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, plans to allow foreigners to invest in its stocks and initial public offerings through domestic funds, the stock market regulator said in an interview aired yesterday.
Minister: Iran, China set to sign major oil deal
Iran and China's Sinopec could, as early as Sunday, sign a final multi-billion dollar agreement for the development of the Yadavaran onshore oil field, the Iranian oil minister said.
Oil industry in Beiji makes it bomb target
A truck bomb killed at least six police officers and wounded 16 people Saturday in the northern oil hub of Beiji, the second attack in two days to take aim at Iraq's most lucrative industry.
Water becomes the new oil as world runs dry
Western companies have the know-how - and the financial incentive - to supply water to poor nations.



There's a story in today's New York Times regarding the problem of declining exports from oil producing countries. Looks like Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model is gaining some acceptance.
Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports
E. Swanson
Already been posted several times in yesterday's DrumBeat.
The full print version on the front page of the paper is quite a bit longer than the summary that the Times posted online yesterday.
Congratulations !
Any links to longer version ?
Best Hopes,
alan
The link that Black Dog provided goes to the longer version. IMO, Cliff Krauss wrote a very good introduction to the topic of declining net oil exports.
I don't recall your getting a citation in the article, though you've acknowledged they spoke to you.
???
Cliff and I had several conversations, but I am in no way taking any kind of credit for this story. This is his work, and I think that he did a very good job. I don't know what kind of discussions went on behind the scenes at the Times, but my guess is that trying to discuss the mathematical models of future exports was too complicated for an introductory article, and perhaps too scary.
My only real complaint is that I think that the MSM guys should reference the fact that Yergin's price and production projections have so far been way off the mark.
Even such an original thinker as Darwin acknowledges in the "Preface" of Origin of Species that all his ideas have "predecessors," and he cites every single one.
The least the reporter could have done was acknowledge a paraphrase. Some of it sounds awfully familiar:
That "Experts say" is one of the crappiest phrases in journalese. The whole passage sounds lifted from graphoilogy.com.
Of course, we were building on prior work too, by Simmons & Deffeyes, among others.
But fundamentally the MSM guys that are willing to start talking about declining oil production and oil exports are only to be congratulated.
Hello,
Der Spiegel ran an article quoting the NYT, but mentioned that the NYT had drawn its information from a study by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC).
Here is the link.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,522251,00.html
They also quoted Yergin at the end!
That being said, Spiegel has been pretty good and comes out regularly now with articles that would have been unimaginable just six months ago.
Ciao,
FB
Why does everyone keep quoting Yergin, when he's been so wrong? What does this guy have to do to discredit himself?
Why do media report on Paris Hilton?
Why does the most moronic presidential candidates get the most air time?
It's all in the entertainment value, not in the newsworthiness of the content :)
Because then each of us can delude himself (herself) into thinking we're smarter.
Good to see it in the MSM. Still full of dumb ass statements though. From the article:
"In some cases, the governments of these countries subsidize gasoline heavily for their citizens, selling it for as little as 7 cents a gallon, a practice that industry experts say fosters wasteful habits."
This is rich! It may be true, but selling it for $3/gallon to Mr and Mrs America fosters wasteful habits too - would they prefer that it be used so Mrs America can drive her darling bubs to school in her SUV, or so Mr America can drive 50 miles to his finance job where he helps the world along with more derivatives scams? Heh :)
I think you'd be very lucky to see anything criticizing "experts" like CERA...
Um.... NZS .... you're obviously not inside the Empire or you'd know that many Empire subjects feel it's extremely unfair that "those ragheads" pay pennies to the dollar of what they spend on gas. That gas "should" be burned up in an American SUV, in America!
And in fact the pennies-per-liter (or gallon) price "those people" pay overseas pay is being used as an argument that we should only pay that here. And this is in the more liberal news sources....
I kind of am in a mini version of the Empire, here... [sigh]
Hi WT,
Appreciation for your contribution and efforts to educate.
re: "real complaint".
Perhaps a short letter-to-the-editor would do the trick. (Just a general suggestion - not meant for you, specifically).
That article ran as the big front page story in my local paper this morning (Times Union of Albany, NY) so it's getting picked up by other papers.
I found it to be a strange article. They kept bouncing back and forth between "OMG, oil producers aren't going to be able to export nearly as much oil in the future! We're in big trouble!", to "But we don't expect there to be any shortages or anything because of that fact, so no big deal".
IMO, one word: editors, but I could be wrong.
WT, I am sorry that you are not getting credit for your work. At least you are secure in the knowledge that those of us that read TOD realize and appreciate your efforts. Thank you.
What else can we expect? If you were an 'Original American' (whoever they were), not only would editor-thieves be stealing your ideas...but your land and resources, killing you and family, trampling on your culture and traditions, and forcing you to learn a language that you didnt need in the past...and then re-writing history to cover their dastardly deeds...While labeling you a heathen to justify the entire process.
Absolutely you should get some credit for the model. At least everyone here knows this is analysis you've been beating the drum about for a long time now.
This is after all the Grande Dame of the news (advertising) business. The same sort who would report of the Emperor with no clothes on, "The Emperor was seen wearing stylish haute couture see thru clothes."
Reminds me of a quote I heard recently:
"It would seem that the Emperor has no clothes, but that nudity is now in fashion".
Here's AFP's version of the story:
Key oil exporters can turn into importers in 10 years: report
A good link with the details of the House Energy Bill.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN0663190320071206?sp=true
Still unclear to me is if the tax credit for tankless gas & propane water heaters will continue. Tax credits for conservation will continue, but details are missing.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan, the missing details can be had here: http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_cong_bills...
All One Thousand and Thirty-Six pages of them. (PDF warning)
o_O
Good luck with sorting it out.
This is a common tactic. fill a bill up with so much language that it makes it impossible for the senators and congressmen to read the whole thing before voting on it so they have to rely on skewed abstracts/summary's.
Thanks but No Thanks !
Best Hopes for Detailed & Accurate Summaries,
Alan
Re: the above story on Britain planning to fulfill all electrical needs from wind. I had to check my calendar. Is it April fool's day?
But they are also pursuing nuclear, so perhaps they plan to see some excess electricity to wind. Does anyone believe they will actually be able to do this?
It's doable. Not doable, it is easy.
The only thing between "doable" or "easy" and "done" is lobbyism and politics. Nuclear lobbyists fought against this a lot, and oil/coal lobbyists did that for ages. But now, with energy prices skyrocketing, these lobbyists are losing solid grounds.
It was a matter of time, really, before this kind of decision was made. The only remaining question is: is it enough?
Storage? What form of storage are they planning to employ? No mention of that. Intermittent is better than nothing, but in the long run you need some form of smoothing.
storage is one of the reasons Lovelock used against WT. did he purposely overlooked ammonia?
NH3,
I am wading through the papers you pointed out here:
http://www.energy.iastate.edu/becon/ammonia.html
I've not yet had a chance to follow up on the wind to ammonia projects out there - apparently one is at a Minnesota University and the other is somewhere in the Pacific Northwest.
Do you have any sense of what the benefit would be for a hybrid system? The H2 from water is an easy thing and the actual ammonia formation is not yet perfected, so perhaps a hydrolysis H2 with the final stage being done in the traditional fashion with NG is the way to go?
This is pretty exciting stuff - no need for a water impound area, no need for an air pressurizable underground reservoir, just store the created ammonia in a tank and burn it in a device very similar to today's large scale diesel generations. The safety training on this stuff occurs around here every year for farmers and its just not the big of a deal to handle the stuff in an industrial setting ...
Those Hydrogen Engine Center guys are already selling ammonia powered Ford 300-6 engines based on Ford cores or their own block design into the irrigation market. Its a teeny, tiny step of mating the engine to an electric generator assembly, putting sheet metal around it, and then you'd have a working electric generation, albeit limited to at most 250kW ... definite proof of concept on the single farm scale. I strongly suspect a turbine solution is the right way to go for large scale generation as opposed to a piston engine, but if there is research on this I've not found it yet.
-SCT
since SSAS is still in development stage, the immediate and proven solution is via electrolysis and HB synthesis if the electricity from WT is already in place. but if the WTs are yet to be installed, then one should take a look at the SSAS more closely. the folks working on that are very decent. last time i checked with them, it is only about four months away from production ready.
for electric generation from NH3, you can also read the ammonia fueled turbine work in the presentations.
the web address has been changed to:
http://www.energy.iastate.edu/Renewable/related/ammonia.htm
Careful, they said "the electricity to power all homes". Which means not counting commercial/industrial use. I don't know what the ratios are. From the article, they're talking about tripling 8 TW existing to 25 TW by 2020, primarily offshore. That's about 10%/year compounded exponential, which seems doable if they're fairly aggressive about heading off NIMBYism.
peace,
lilnev
GW. not TW. 25TW is more than the world's total energy (not just electricity) consumption as of today.