DrumBeat: November 21, 2007
Posted by Leanan on November 21, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Threat of $100 crude raises global alarm
Oil hovered on the brink of $100 a barrel on Wednesday. Mixed data on US crude inventories did not quite push it over the threshold. But the world is having to accustom itself to the idea of a three-figure oil price. The implications for the health of the world economy are troubling.“Until recently, there has been less concern about oil in the $90s than there was when it was $60 or $70. But it is obvious that oil at $100 is going to have much more impact than oil at $70,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
“Over the next few weeks, we are going to see these prices flowing through to US consumers, at a time when we have other serious economic problems.”
Oil hesitates on drive to $100 a barrel
NEW YORK - It didn't happen Wednesday, it may not happen Thanksgiving day, but the price of oil seems destined to burst through the $100 mark sometime soon, leaving higher pump prices and rising heating fuel costs in its wake.Energy futures balked on that drive Wednesday after the government reported that supplies at a key oil terminal in the Midwest rose for the first time in weeks. Analysts said it was a pause, not a retreat for energy futures that reached as high as $99.29 in electronic trading overnight.
Giving Thanks For Oil and OPEC
When you sit down for your Thanksgiving meal this week, don't forget to thank the oil. No, not the extra extra virgin olive oil or the polyunsaturated high omega 3 vegetable oil, but the crude -- the dead dino, fossilized pond scum, ancient sunlight, rock oil -- aka, petroleum.
Big oil, its lobby court bloggers in media push
HOUSTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Executives at large oil companies often say that the U.S. public -- unnerved by high gasoline prices -- does not understand or appreciate how expensive it is to keep the nation's engines running.And now in a first, two big energy companies and the American Petroleum Institute (API), the U.S. oil industry's main lobbying group, have reached out to a conservative band of bloggers to tell their story.
"We recognize here that there are many different channels of communications that exist today," Jane Van Ryan, new media advisor at API, said. "We've been looking into the blogosphere for the last several months, and there were a few people who seemed to be a little more knowledgeable about oil and gas."
Factors that contribute to Peak Oil crisis
Finally, because many oil exporting nations are experiencing both depletion and increased domestic consumption, these exporting nations will soon reduce exports (see research by Rembrandt Koppelaar and Jeff Rubin). For example, in 2007 the Mexican government announced that due to declining production, Mexico will reduce oil exports to the U.S. by 150,000 barrels per day on the average over the next four years, by 500,000 for the following two years, and that its oil reserves will be depleted by 2014.
Mexico struggles to control month-old oil spill, gas leak, fires at damaged Gulf platform
Workers were still battling a nightmarish combination of gas and crude leaks, fires and oil slicks at a damaged Gulf oil platform on Wednesday, almost a month after it was damaged in an accident that killed at least 21, an official said.Since the Oct. 23 accident, the damaged platform has experienced bad weather and at least three fires.
Chrysler plugs in to electrics
Chrysler will unveil three electrically driven concept vehicles at the 2008 Detroit Auto Show in January.
Thoughts about oil and Arctic refuge
As much as BP would like to convince us that they don't need our oil and they will be going someplace else for it (if we don't cater to their every whim) - the truth stands that there is not an everlasting surplus of oil to provide to the world. BP and every other oil producer support this statement when they justify the $3.39 gallons of unleaded at the pumps. If they don't want to take the higher taxes proposal, here's an idea: We can hold onto the oil and charge them more for it later on down the road. In that scenario, they gouge our pocketbooks now, we could gouge theirs later - on a much larger scale.
The dominant theme that emerged from the cacophonous OPEC summit that concluded in Riyadh on Nov. 18 was countries that have amassed huge piles of dollars from selling oil don't like seeing the value of their currency reserves eroded. While the host Saudis urged restraint lest the dollar fall even more, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad scorned the greenback as a "worthless piece of paper."
Castro: Oil Costs And Development
Chávez could invoke an illustrative example which Cuba is well aware of: with what it costs to import a single barrel of oil at the end of 2007, 13.52 tons of light oil could have been purchased in 1960, including their transportation, that is to say, nearly 50 times the amount today. In these circumstances, a country like the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela would continue to supply the United States with oil, a non-renewable resource, for practically nothing. The earth would continue to sink as its oilfields are drained of the oil that supports them.
With crude approaching $100 a barrel, consumers should brace for record gas prices and higher airfares - just in time for the holidays.
US oil futures have come within spitting distance of triple figures and the all-time inflation-adjusted peak of $101.70. And while prices have eased over the past few days, the medium- and long-term trend is up. The picture is one of “extreme fundamental tightness”, as Barclays Capital puts it.
Shell could resume some Scotford production soon
Royal Dutch Shell could boost output within a few days from its fire-damaged Scotford oil sands upgrader as it looks to restart one of two major producing units at the site, a spokesman for the company said on Wednesday.
BP Whiting on schdule for 300,000 bpd by year end
BP's refinery in Whiting, Indiana, was still on schedule to ramp up crude distillation to 300,000 barrels per day by the end of 2007, said a source familiar with refinery operations.When the company released its third-quarter earnings, officials announced plans to restore full production at the Whiting refinery by the second quarter of 2008 and 300,000 bpd by year end.
China to increase oil output, exploration - Wen
China will boost oil output at state refineries and increase exploration to ease a domestic supply crunch that has led to nationwide fuel price hikes, Premier Wen Jiabao said Wednesday.
Court sides with US oil firm over Ecuador tax row
An international tribunal has ordered Ecuador to temporarily halt demands to charge U.S.-owned City Oriente a controversial windfall oil tax approved last year, according to court documents released by the company Wednesday.
Petro-Canada denies it's willing to swap assets with Russians
Petro-Canada yesterday denied reports it would be willing to swap heavy oil assets with Russia's largest company, OAO Gazprom, for a piece of a massive Russian gas field.
Venezuelan shipment of 16,000 barrels of gas/diesel averts Guyana fuel crisis
The Venezuelan Embassy has announced that it had facilitated "a shipment of 16,000 barrels of gasoline and diesel fuel," which arrived in the country yesterday following an emergency request from the Government of Guyana.
Australia: Taxpayers lose out on petrol subsidy
QUEENSLAND motorists are missing out on $100 million in fuel savings each year because the legislation that underpins the state's 8.34c-a-litre petrol subsidy scheme is "rubbish" and open to manipulation.
Kuwaiti operator takes delivery of mega oil tanker
State-owned Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. (KOTC) has taken delivery of a new giant oil tanker as part of a 600 million dollar nine-vessel deal, its chairman said Wednesday.
New Oil Crisis: An Engineer Shortage
You've heard the reasons for high oil prices: instability in the Middle East, booming demand in China and India, the sagging dollar. Now add another one to the list: Engineers.
Energy Bulletin and the Reality Report(audio)
Bart Anderson of Energy Bulletin recaps recent news related to resource depletion, climate change and more. In the past several weeks, with the rising price of oil, Energy Bulletin's readership has increased by over 40%.
U.S. should lead on conservation
Our technological breakthroughs are indeed miraculous, but mankind still cannot create one of the essentials of life - water - or one of the great luxuries of life: petroleum. There are limits.Oddly, we seem to have hardly noticed. In the industrialized world, especially in the United States, we consume precious resources as if abundance were our birthright. And we're angered by anyone who suggests otherwise.
Germany at Odds With UK on Renewable Goals
LONDON - Germany wants European states to meet their own renewable energy targets as much as possible, rather than pay other countries to do it for them, deputy environment minister Matthias Machnig said.Britain favours the latter trading approach.
New Report Warns Biofuel Crop Cultivation May Worsen Global Warming
Expanding biofuel crop plantations through deforestation worsens global warming and harms local livelihoods and the environment, says the International Institute for Environment and Development in a new report.The report, "Up In Smoke? Asia and the Pacific", presents new evidence that biofuels could turn into a rush for "fools gold" across Asia as huge social and environmental costs outweigh the benefits.
North Dakota: Officials Discuss Fuel Supply
Rud said fuel dealers have said the tight supplies are as bad as the oil embargo of the 1970s.Also: Fuel supply shortages discussed"We can't keep taking the crumbs on the end of the pipeline," Rud said.
China oil thirst 'not explosive'
China's unquenchable thirst for oil is contributing to sustained high prices, but it is not the main factor in crude's latest surge toward new records, analysts said on Wednesday.Speculative trading, geopolitics such as unrest in the Middle East and US efforts to fill its oil reserves, as well as the weakness in the US currency, are more important reasons for crude nearing $100 a barrel, they said.
China imports diesel to ease shortage
China's biggest oil company says it will import 750,000 barrels of diesel this month to ease shortages that have disrupted trucking and caused long lines at filling stations.
Iraq boosts oil exports after re-opening Kirkuk pipeline
Iraq has boosted its oil exports to almost two million barrels a day (bpd) after reopening a pipeline to Turkey and hopes to sharply raise output in 2008, a senior oil official said on Wednesday.
Running On Empty: A new exhibition considers the lessons of the 1973 oil crisis
With fuel prices reaching record highs and concern about the planet’s dwindling resources mounting daily, Mirko Zardini, director and curator of the Canadian Centre for Architecture (CCA), thought the time was ripe to revisit the moment when the reality of an energy crisis first crashed into the public consciousness. The exhibition 1973: Sorry, Out of Gas, on view at the CCA until next April, considers that decade’s oil crisis and the architecture community’s response, which included significant experiments and research that Zardini fears are now being ignored.
Geologists study geothermal heat as an energy source
As the United States' energy crisis looms large in our future, scientists and researchers are trying to quickly develop alternative energy sources and production before fossil fuels run out. One option that other countries have discovered and utilized is the extraction of geothermal energy from miles beneath the Earth's surface.
Just as mankind was once expelled from Eden’s world of naked innocence by the knowledge of good and evil, so the Modern Investor is rapidly learning the facts of Peak Oil. That’s inherently unsettling because we know that economic growth has always proceeded apace with the growth in oil supply. So what happens to economic growth when the oil supply peaks and then declines? Is our economy, like Wile E. Coyote, coming to the edge of the cliff? Is it time for an intelligent investor to panic?
Brazil’s new and notable oil discovery
The find is a slap in the face for those geologists who said there were no more large oil provinces to be found, especially as it comes soon after the large discovery in the Bay of Bohai off the Chinese coast.
Petrobras output takes a tumble
Brazilian giant Petrobras saw its domestic oil output fall 2.3% in October from September's figures - its fourth straight monthly drop - with production falling 5% year-on-year as rig glitches took their toll.
Black Friday: Why This One Is Especially Dark
I have no crystal ball, nor do I claim to have well-developed psychic powers, but I'd be willing to bet almost anything that next Thanksgiving season will be dramatically different from this one. A dark curtain of despair has descended, along with $100 oil, on Wall Street, and the amount of debt that the American working and middle classes are trying to juggle is, as Stan Goff so eloquently stated in his article on my site, "Middle Class Angst", nothing less than "pre-volcanic."
TransCanada Seeks to Build C$983 Million Gas Pipeline
TransCanada Corp. said it will seek approval for a C$983 million ($996 million) natural-gas pipeline project to increase access to production in northwestern Alberta needed by Canadian oil-sands producers.
Kuwait dinar jumps as dollar slide tests Gulf pegs
Kuwait let the dinar make its second-biggest daily gain on Wednesday since the oil exporter dropped the dollar peg in May, as the U.S. currency’s global slide raised pressure on Gulf neighbours to follow its lead.
Canterbury tourism body steps up green moves
Lincoln University tourism professor David Simmons said on Monday he had chaired a Christchurch conference to discuss tourism's future when long-haul flights as a luxury activity were being questioned. In the face of "peak oil" (where usage was outweighing cheaply sourced new oil finds) and climate-change concerns tourism needed to develop a sustainable model, he said.
US backs plan to build new nuclear power plant in Armenia
The US is backing Armenian plans to build a new atomic power station by 2016 to replace a Soviet-era nuclear plant that has raised safety concerns, a US diplomat said.
Bush Fiddles While the World Burns
The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change that put this report together was awarded the Nobel Prize in October. It's been studying the problem for five years. They've now released four reports on the subject. This latest is the most blunt.But the Bush administration says, "We don't have a view on that."
Stop any bus and wake up some sleeping wino in the back, and he would have a view on that. How can the George Bush administration possibly not have a view on it?? It's the potential fate of the world.
Oil prices strike record high near 100 dollars
World oil prices surged to a record peak above 99 dollars per barrel on Wednesday on the back of the falling US dollar and tight global crude supplies, traders said.In early trading on Wednesday, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, rocketed to an historic 99.29 dollars.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for January delivery jumped to an all-time pinnacle of 96.53 dollars per barrel.
Here's why the U.S. is facing up to its thirst for oil
In its report, the task force concluded the U.S. Department of Defence can use coal and shale for all its fuel needs - all 312 million barrels of oil a day - by 2011. (The U.S. Air Force is the biggest military user of oil by far, requiring 219 million barrels of jet fuel a day; it is already testing synthetic fuels to replace conventional fuels.) The task force found the U.S. can produce between 7.65 million barrels and 9.35 million barrels a day from unconventional resources by 2035. This oil would be produced as follows: (1) from oil shale, 2.5 million barrels a day; (2) from oil sands, 0.5 million b/d; (3) from coal, 2.6 million b/d; (4) from heavy oil, 0.75 million b/d; and (5) from depleted and abandoned wells, a minimum of 1.3 million b/d and as much as three million b/d.The task force describes this goal as aggressive but realistic. If accomplished, it would mean that the U.S. would meet all of its anticipated increase in oil demand by 2035 from domestic production - with several million barrels a day left over to reduce oil imports significantly.
Crude crunch coming: Industry wisdom now recognizes there are practical limits to the world's oil supply
Market theory predicts that higher prices will encourage development of supply. This time, the dictators who control much of the world's oil reserves have so much money coming in and so little concern for others that they lack the usual motivation to produce.No wonder Western energy executives are beginning to worry that demand will soon outpace supply.
But doom and gloom is not the only upshot of $100 oil. In fact, many analysts see pricey oil as the jolt the economy needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions and foster more energy efficiency. That's because as oil gets costlier, the incentives rise for new investments in energy efficiency and renewable options. Initiatives such as plug-in hybrid cars or cellulosic ethanol become more cost-competitive. Higher oil prices also ratchet up the pressure on Congress for new laws supporting renewable, cleaner energy sources on a larger scale.
Total CEO sees little respite from high oil price
The head of French oil giant Total warned on Wednesday that oil prices would remain high as crude prices inched closer to $100 a barrel."Today, there is not much chance for oil prices to decline," Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said.
OPEC countries set two values for oil
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah on Saturday brushed aside allegations that OPEC is a monopoly controlling the price of oil. The near-$100-a-barrel price from this year's spike has, in inflation-adjusted terms, "not reached its rate during the early 1980s," he pointed out.While everyone else is paying more for gasoline, however, the king gave Saudi motorists a 30 percent discount two years ago. Saudi 91-octane fuel now sells for about 46 cents a gallon; premium, 95-octane gasoline goes for 61 cents.
Using a rate of inflation calculated the old-fashioned way, as by John Williams at his shadowstats.com site, instead of the lying, distorted way that Greenspan and Boskin created to do it, Mr Conrad has confirmed with his own calculations that real, in-your-face, pay-me-now, price-rising inflation is actually running at or above 10%.Using this inflation data, he has thus calculated "the oil price history using the 1980 CPI method. It turns out that 1980 barrel of US$39.50 crude is the equivalent of over US$200 per barrel in today's anemic dollars." Yikes! Oil would have to rise to US$200 a barrel just to reach the old high price in inflation-adjusted dollars! Yikes! US$200 per barrel, thanks to a falling currency!
Death toll in Saudi pipeline fire rises to 40
A total of 40 people died when fire broke out on a gas pipeline in Saudi Arabia on Sunday in one of the deadliest such incidents to hit the oil-rich kingdom, state oil giant Saudi Aramco said.
Shell Mulls Stakes Sale in Two Nigeria Blocks
Royal Dutch Shell PLC is considering selling $900 million worth of interests in Nigerian offshore blocks as it restructures and reduces its business in the troubled region, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday.
Shell Pitches `Several Hundred Billion' Dollar Project to Putin
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and partners told Russian President Vladimir Putin that developing Arctic gas fields big enough to supply global demand for a decade may cost "several hundred billion" dollars.
The American people, meanwhile, are caught between distaste for anti-democratic governments abroad and their own nation’s shameful reliance on imported oil, much of it from the Middle East, for transportation.Perhaps such policy failures would be more meaningful if motorists, the next time they fill up their gas tank, would envision a woman barely in her 20s facing 200 lashes for no crime at all.
Kidnappers Release Schlumberger Employees in Sudan
Schlumberger announced that the three employees abducted in Sudan on October 23, 2007 have been released. All three, one Egyptian, one Iraqi and a Sudanese, appear to be physically well and unharmed after their ordeal. They are currently undergoing a thorough medical check up before being reunited with their families and we request that they be given privacy during this time.
Australia: Top ex-pat scientist urges population curbs
HALTING population growth in developing countries should be part of a global strategy to reduce mankind's impact on the environment, according to an eminent expatriate Australian scientist.Immediate past president of the Royal Society, Professor Lord Robert May said that, given the threat of climate change, a declining global population was "a prerequisite" if humanity was to achieve a sustainable ecological footprint in the future.
New Technique May Halt Corrosion in Offshore Pipelines
Researcher Rohan McDougall is amongst those taking part in a Bio-Industry Forum in Darwin today.He says that by using natural materials that mimick seaweed, the resource industry could significantly reduce offshore bacterial corrosion.
"It's distinct from traditional bio-cides that kill bacteria. It regulates bacteria's behaviour, stops them from sticking to the surfaces of pipes," he said.
Climate change a growing threat in Tibet, media report
Climate change is causing more weather-related disasters than ever in the Himalayan region of Tibet, where the temperature is rising faster than the rest of China, state press reported Wednesday."Natural disasters, like droughts, landslides, snowstorms and fires are more frequent and calamitous now," Xinhua news agency quoted the director of the Tibet Regional Meteorological Bureau, Song Shanyun, as saying.
"The tolls are more severe and losses are bigger."
Japan pledges 2bln dlr Asia aid to fight climate change
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on Wednesday unveiled a two-billion-dollar aid package to help developing Asian nations fight pollution and combat climate change.The initiative, announced by Fukuda at a summit of Asian leaders, includes soft loans and training programmes over five years, and is aimed at helping the region tackle global warming and push forward with economic development.
Asian leaders sign vague climate pact
Leaders of 16 Asian countries, including top polluters China and Japan, agreed to a vague pact on climate change on Wednesday, trying to put aside discord over Myanmar's suppression of democracy protests.
The world’s scientists have done their job. Now it’s time for world leaders, starting with President Bush, to do theirs. That is the urgent message at the core of the latest — and the most powerful — report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 2,500 scientists who collectively constitute the world’s most authoritative voice on global warming.



A new Energy and Environment Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
You can go further back. Most of the "barbarian incursions" recorded by the Romans can be correlated to crop problems among the Gauls and Germans that set them in motion.
New Bush Administration Furnace Standards do Nothing
Minimum AFUE for gas furnaces raised from 78% to 80% in 2015.
Minimum AFUE for oil furnaces raised from 78% to 82% in 2015..
Most furnaces already exceed these standards, many (about 1/3rd) are 90+% AFUE.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR200711...
Best Hopes for Intelligent consumers and state efficiency standards,
Alan
Watching Bush play at President is a lot like watching a tractor-mounted post hole digger. Spin, spin, spin and all that we get is a deeper hole.
Sometime you hit some big rock and it stops, or you run outta digging tool.
But stop the hole digging does.
Imaging what it would be like if the world was under adult supervision, notably the White House
Homo Semi-Sapiens
Heh. That would be great!
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I guess he's waiting for new and better technology. Oh, I guess you pointed out it's already here. Better technology doesn't do a whole lot if you can't get people to use it.
Alan,
There is a faction in this country that thinks energy conservation is un-American, a threat to the status quo, starting with Dick Cheney. Did you really expect at this late stage the Bush administration would bite the hand that feeds it.
Future of levee project rests, literally, on clay
Today I'm at home and I'll be watching CNBC to see how the NYMEX market responds to the EIA weekly petroleum report. Specifically, Robert Rapier noted a time delay in the indicators and I want to see what it looks like "live" or to see what delays may be inherent even on a cable business channel like CNBC.
There is much discussion this morning about the price of oil, the dollar, etc. A representative was on from Pinacle Gas Resources suggesting that today oil prices will sail right through $100/bbl and will probably head to the $108-110 range (all the majors are reporting lower energy production not higher , but it's not peak oil, it's just production problems). And what woud you classify peak oil as?
Currently $150 call options for June oil.
However, has anyone been paying attention to the spot market (for either WTI or Brent, for example)? Yesterday, the WTI spot market closed at $99.16, the highest I've ever seen it. Of course, some will tell us it's still not as expensive as 1980 or it's the dollar.
Now I know that the futures and spot market prices tend to trend together and the price points tend to separate upon contract expiration but the spot price is soaring and leading the price surge.
Looks like those wo thought oil woulf hit $100 before hitting $86 are going to be right again. Are we getting ready for the next price range survey?
So I suppose the question is, what is "expensive" oil? $100 a bbl oil and few outside the financial markets are doing anything other than grouse. And Simmons is telling us (rightly so) that at 15 cents a cup that oil is cheap. Meanwhile some do gooders are proposing a gas tax for carbon related reasons - starting 10 cents a gallon and increasing 10 cents a year until its not needed any longer (man, can I get some of what their smoking?)
So, what's "expensive" - how do we define that and what's the dollar amount?
RE: Twilight Zone Buying Power...posted above by Leanan...If one looks at the 'real' inflation figures, as computed pre 1980, as opposed to the 'post 1980 inflation computations', $100 oil is cheap...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK22Dj02.html
...snip...'And since I am always on the lookout for ways to illustrate how inflation causes the loss of buying power of dollars, it is fortunate for me that MoneyandMarkets.com happened to come along and write: "Suppose you put US$500,000 into a money market account earning 4% a year back on November 7, 2002. Compounded daily, you'd have US$610,694.69 as of yesterday."
Immediately I know that he and I travel in totally different circles, as all my hoodlum friends and me TOGETHER couldn't come up with US$500,000 to put into some stinking money market fund. So I was getting ready to say "Bah!" and leave, when he says: "But wait! Over that same five years, the dollar has lost another 28% of its purchasing power. So, what one dollar bought in 2002, will only buy US$0.72 worth of goods and services today."
At that, I start sensing something sinister and important here, but I know that I am too stupid to understand exactly what, so I will keep my mouth shut and my hand inching towards the pistol I have under my jacket, just in case. This "freezing like an armed deer in the headlights" tactic turned out to be very fortuitous, as he was somehow persuaded to go on to explain: "So that US$610,694.69 in savings that you accumulated and thought you protected so wisely in a money market fund? Well it will only purchase US$439,700 worth of goods and services - 28% less than you thought!"...snip...
We could define "becoming expensive" as a significant increase in the hours an individual has to work to afford a barrel of oil.
In other words, it's relative.
Someone making $10 an hour needs to work 7 hours for a barrel at $70, and needs to work 10 hours for a barrel at $100. Three more hours.
Someone making $100,000 a year is making about $50 an hour, and needs to work 1.4 hours for a $70 barrel, 2 hours for a $100 barrel. 36 more minutes.
So more expensive oil hits the poor harder. So if you're rich, you have few problems. But ...
Where does "profit" come from? How do you actually "make money"? If money is just a representation of obtainable services and resources within the system, then having more money means you have more access to services and resources. But the services and resources available are limited to the system as a whole, to society, to the planet, so if you have more, someone else or something else has less.
Profiting in the pre-peak age meant that you were taking more from a growing pie. Profiting in the post-carbon age means taking more from a shrinking pie.
Taking more of the remaining oil reserves, one type of cheap energy, drives up the price, and depletes the oil in the ground.
Taking more from the poor, such as requiring more work for the same pay, does not have the same effect in driving up prices, but the increased demands on the poor affects the actual supply of poor people. When you take more and more from people who already have so little, they have increasingly less to support themselves, and they get sick, dehydrated, hungry, and eventually die. Taking more from the poor will deplete the supply of poor people.
So, in reality, if you're rich, you're not protected, because all the other rich people are also competing for the dwindling supply of all easily-exploitable resources, from oil to poor people, your pain will just take longer to feel.
That is not necessary, and was true just a few times at history.
May I ask you why? We can increase our energy usage even on the post-carbon age. And there is no proof that all the value we obtain comes from energy. (Although both may be the case on a few decades or centuries.)
No, it's always been true. Any physical item in anyone's possession came from someone else (tribesman, colleague, competitor) or something else (land, trees, plants, animals).
This includes the flesh and bone making up the human body. It was made out of food. That 150 pound frame is not found in other plants, animals, or the soil anymore.
Granted, on an individual level possession is temporary (it gets taken away, you use it up, you die), but as society renews itself the possessions are passed down. As society grows, more possessions are acquired by the group.
Now, it is readily noticeable on a planetary level, as shortages of resources and refined products are widespread.
There is no proof that the value we obtain comes from energy? I challenge anyone to find a single thing that humans do in living their lives and/or "creating value" that doesn't require energy.
We cannot increase our energy usage for a system dependent on oil to function when the oil is already running out. When oil was plentiful, we used it for fuel, asphalt, and plastics to build out nuclear and other alternative energies, as well as support the lives of billions of people. There are now additional billions of people dependent on oil, while oil production has plateaued and will soon decline. It's like suggesting that you can convert your car to run on propane or ethanol, after you have already run out of gas in the middle of nowhere. Or like suggesting your body could run on synthetic blood plasma, after you are already bleeding to death.
Had we invested our one-time-use energy sources all in renewable energy from the get-go, like solar, wind, hydro, biofools, etc., then, yes, after oil peaked we could conceivably still grow our system, because our system wasn't dependent on oil, it was dependent on the renewable energy infrastructure we created with oil, oil which would then be no longer necessary. As long as we didn't run short of anything else that we had used to build a renewable energy infrastructure.
But in our current system, all of the produced oil in our plateaued oil-dependent system has already been spoken for, having many current uses (pesticides for crop yields, plastics for food packaging, diesel for trucking and training yesterday's products to today's consumers for tomorrow's desires and needs). To use an amount for something else, means 6.6 billion people have to give up that amount of oil they are currently dependent on and currently using to exist, grow, profit, and expand.
"Growth" is not possible without additional resources and/or additional energy, and these resources and energy must be processed by the system we currently use, not the one we want.
But whatever system we inhabit, growth ends eventually, because on a finite planet we're going to run out of something eventually.
Basically the problem is you have a sort of base lifestyle in any economy for the US its probably around 15-20k or so away from the coasts. This is what it costs to live a basic life. Rising commodity costs have a greater impact on the base then they do for wealthier people since a poor person is spending say 90% of his income for food/shelter/clothing/transportation. Above this base your talking more about lifestyle choices with disposable income.
Now in a sense your argument is not correct because the poorest person is contributing little to the consumption economy since they simply don't have much disposable income. The richer person is just as effected since in general their job depends on the ability of others to consume so when they cut consumption slightly eventually the net effect is one member of the 100k plus crowd looses his job and ends up in a lower paid position.
A obvious example is when the housing market dried up all the people making good salaries providing for the market lost their jobs. Although its indirect in the case of the wealthy the absolute impact is the same.
So if your spending more money for gasoline your not buying something else at the end of the day the impact is the same regardless of wealth. In the case of the wealthier people its concentrated in the individuals that lose their jobs as apposed to spread out amongst a class but the effect is not diminished.
This is why I think the ohh we can afforded higher prices is a bunch of bunk. We made it this far borrowing money but that won't last forever. The only way to really adsorb higher fuel prices is to increase efficiency and it does not matter at what level you started. The fact we are already more efficient per dollar today does not change the fact that if oil goes up we have to increase to compensate.
I probably changes the ratios i.e if your 90% efficient then oil needs to double before you increase your efficiency 1% to compensate. Vs if your 50% so the relative effiency gains needed seems to be true but thats a different argument from whats often presented. We cannot absorb higher prices but the % change needed in efficiency to overcome higher oil prices is lower. Opposing this is it gets increasingly harder to increase efficiency as your approach 100%.
This is why I think we are going to see large price increase before we finally see demand drop. Most of the demand drop will be outright destruction not conservation.
The only way to really adsorb higher fuel prices is to increase efficiency and it does not matter at what level you started
Memmel,
I beginning to think that creative alternatives will be used to decrease gas demand. Loss of licence for more crimes. Higher taxes on car registration, cut down on the number of cars on the road thru discouragement.
Having to take drivers test every few years. No one under 21 drives...
Different strategies to cut down on number of cars/drivers period in addition to the more often covered subject of higher efficiencies.
Making it a "Luxury". (That we can no longer afford)
John
I don't think so. The problem is the price point at which gas becomes a burden varies wildly even in the US. I drive like 2000 or so miles a year for example and make a good salary so I could afford fuel if it was made from vegetable oils. When they make plug-in hybrid mini-vans my fuel usage would drop to practically zero. Its the people that have made bad life style choices and are straining their income and the poor that will get hit the hardest.
The point is that if you give it half a though and or willing or make a decent salary you can get out of buying gas. So the effects are really fragmentary for society. People that change wont really be effected the poor can manage.
But you can see how it would really fragment our society it stands to become a issue similar to abortion.
"So I suppose the question is, what is "expensive" oil?"
One criterion of 'expensive' is to compare its cost to that of some other product that can be used in its stead. As long as it costs less than some realistic competative product in the here and now, it is 'not expensive'.
This is not very deep economic theory. Until the price rises a lot, there will be nothing competative, and there will be a plentiful supply of economist talking heads saying 'oil is not expensive'. IMO, saying that oil is not expensive is not useful a useful comment even if it is technically 'true'.
I'm doing much the same... do you have a link that shows current call options on oil?
For the sake of poops and giggles, here's my completely uneducated prediction. Crude supplies will be better than expected. Heating Oil will draw more than expected. WTI will drop initially but recover within an hour or two to where it is now (98.12)
Then Mexico has the best oil engineers in the bidness along with the best "FEMA" org in the World.
http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/gcaptain-tip-line-pemex-oil-rig-fire/
Someone go here and cut/paste the photo of KAB 101
burning. This is the "first" fire. Not the Second, BTW.
h/t rigzone and Leanan of course-8).
http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/gcaptain-tip-line-pemex-oil-rig-fire/
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
No, I'm getting the reporting off the floor.
First. Joe Kernan is an idiot.
Talking to the FIMAT guy (who has been dragging his feet
BTW):
JK "Nothing has happened this year. Why are oil prices as high as they are."
FIMAT Guy "Nonplussed." Mouth Gaping.
Bloomberg gets it. Finally. 8:30 Sue Keenan at NYMEX.
I never did see the other Markets open on CNBC (commercials)or Bloomberg (Commercials as well after Keenan)
Bloomberg-"Panic Buying" at NYMEX
$98.31
I still say TRIPLE YERGIN by JAN. 30th!
(for those not dressed in Yergineze, that's $114)
Yes, that will be a Three-Yergin Night
Problem is, unlike 3 dogs on a 3 dog night, 3 Yergins won't keep ya very warm.
Yergin Nights - Thousands of neverending stories about oil.
Why is Dancing Dan the guy we love to hate?
He's just doing what the puppet masters tell him to do.
When we hit $105 it should be declared "Goldman Sachs Day".