DrumBeat: November 23, 2007


Oil prices end over $98 in light trading

Oil futures resumed their march toward $100 a barrel Friday, rising to a new record close in light holiday trading on concerns about tight heating oil supplies while also drawing support from a buoyant stock market.

...Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 89 cents to settle at $98.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, besting the previous settlement record by 15 cents, while December heating oil futures rose 1.68 cents to settle at $2.7042 a gallon after earlier setting a new trading record of $2.7181 a gallon.

Price of oil approaching $100 per barrel

In Russia export tariffs and a severance tax are directly linked to oil prices. If the cost of exported oil is over $27 per barrel, about 90% of the revenues received in excess of this price, are channeled into the Stabilization Fund. In 2004, it was set up "for a rainy day" - to ward off a potential drop in oil prices. But they have continued growing and since 2005, the government has been using some of this money to pay off the foreign debt ahead of time and to finance the Pension Fund. Despite these expenses, a 60% jump in oil prices has increased the fund to $147 billion. This year, the government has channeled an additional sum of $12 billion into the Russian institutions of development (they received $10 billion from the federal budget).


Shell cancels purchase of Regal's Ukraine fields

Royal Dutch Shell Plc has pulled out of a deal, announced only two days ago, to buy a 51 percent stake in the Ukrainian gas assets of UK oil explorer Regal Petroleum, following Regal's surprise appointment of a new chief executive.

Regal shares dropped sharply after news the memorandum of understanding had been cancelled, closing down 14 percent at 140 pence.


Pdvsa overcomes emergency; 141 oilrigs are operational

Venezuelan state oil firm Pdvsa in the middle of the year had to instruct newly created Pdvsa Services to procure oilrigs abroad, as the holding had only 112 operational oilrigs to meet an estimated production of 3.6 million bpd, which led the firm to declare a state of operational emergency.


Pemex mulls permanent closure of leaking Kab 121 well

Mexican state oil company Pemex`s E&P subsidiary (PEP) is studying the possibility of permanently closing the Kab 121 well in the Sonda de Campeche that has been leaking since October 23, local press quoted company executive Mariano Ruíz-Funes Macedo as saying.


U.N.: Greenhouse gases hit high in 2006

Two of the most important Greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere reached a record high in 2006, and measurements show that one — carbon dioxide — is playing an increasingly important role in global warming, the U.N. weather agency said Friday.


Rising fuel costs increase fares and reduce flights

Fare increases will continue, because "people keep wanting to fly, even at these much higher prices," says analyst Terry Trippler of travel website TerryTrippler.com.

Ironically, Trippler says, high oil prices are at least partially responsible for the continued strong demand for airline seats.

"With gasoline prices rising, there're lots more people who decide they're not going to gas up the Navigator and drive to New York to visit Granny, and decide to go by air," he says.


Business: What Would Jesus Buy?

And what, exactly, is that message? Actually, he has many, and they're detailed in "What Would Jesus Buy?," a new documentary by director Rob VanAlkemade and producer Morgan "Supersize Me" Spurlock. The new film is Reverend Billy's tour de farce—a ferociously satirical and cynical take on consumer culture, pegged to America's most sacred spending season. Dolled up in High Evangelical style (equal parts Jimmy Swaggart and Reverend Lovejoy), the blond pompadoured Reverend Billy crosses the country with his Church of Stop Shopping, from New York City to Disneyland, breathing brimstone about America's impending "shopocalypse." If the messenger is charismatic and funny, his message is deadly serious.


Oregon experiment tries out the idea of per-mile road taxes

A yearlong Oregon test of gadgets installed in volunteers’ vehicles has concluded it’s feasible to pay for American roads and bridges by charging drivers for each mile they travel rather than each gallon they burn.

Feasible, but not likely soon.


High food prices: Africa shows first signs of trouble

Recent violent unrest over soaring food prices in several West African nations points to new signs of trouble on a continent where nearly half the people live on a dollar a day, experts warn.

After Mauritania and Morocco, Senegal this week was the latest country hit by violent protests.


Higher German biofuel blend will raise imports

Germany's new plan to raise biofuel blending levels in fossil fuels will not help the country's crisis-hit biodiesel industry and will probably increase biofuel imports, an industry leader said on Thursday.


Is the palm oil industry misleading the public?

Members of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission are distributing materials that misrepresent the carbon balance of oil-palm plantations, according to accounts from people who have seen presentations by commission members.

These officials are apparently arguing that oil-palm plantations many times the amount of CO2 as natural forests, and therefore that converting forests for plantations is the best way to fight climate change.


Some ‘green’ options could create more problems

THE Western Mail, during its excellent Environment Month, has featured many articles, essays and stories urging action on climate change. There have been tips on reducing our carbon footprint, arguments for new legislation and explanations of renewable energy solutions.

But there has been less discussion about the need to protect our natural support systems, and to allow them to adapt, so they continue to provide us with economic benefits. These issues are every bit as important as the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and yet politicians and decision-makers routinely ignore them.


The Kerch Catastrophe

Reports of soaring oil prices nearing $100 per barrel were recently countered with grotesque images of seabirds lying on the seashore drenched in fuel oil, unable to move let alone fly. These most visible victims of the November 11 oil spill in the narrow Kerch Strait, which links the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, became vivid symbols of negligence triggered by the increasing gains from exporting the “black gold.”


Sweden Turns to a Promising Power Source, With Flaws

The park, in a shallow sound between Sweden and Denmark, testifies to the remarkable rise of wind energy — no longer a quirky alternative favored by environmentalists in Denmark and Germany, but a mainstream power source used in 26 nations, including the United States.

Yet Sweden’s gleaming wind park is entering service at a time when wind energy is coming under sharper scrutiny, not just from hostile neighbors, who complain that the towers are a blot on the landscape, but from energy experts who question its reliability as a source of power.


Back to the well

Oddly enough, though, the biggest discovery of conventional oil this year went largely ignored - notwithstanding the fact that it took place in the continental U.S., where such things are not supposed to happen. The U.S. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) made the relevant announcement earlier this year as follows: "Researchers at Texas A&M [University] and the Department of Energy have produced a new computer tool that will increase recovery of as much as 218 billion barrels of bypassed oil remaining in mature domestic fields."


No lunch? Blame the oil price

Soaring oil prices are making an impact in an unlikely place - in school lunches in Japan.

A school in Yokohama near Tokyo has cited the spike in oil costs as a reason to cancel lunches for two days in early January, a report and an official said.


Nepal: Oil transporters warn of strike

Petroleum transporters have extended solidarity to agitating petroleum dealers and have warned of joining the strike from Sunday if the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) did not fulfill the demands of the dealers soon.

Petroleum dealers of the eastern region went on strike from Sunday demanding that the NOC provide them adequate stocks of petroleum products, among other demands. They have announced a series of protest programs.


Tapping Sakhalin's Energy Resources

Braving a new frontier of oil exploration around Russia's remote Sakhalin Island means conquering ice-locked seas, frequent earthquakes and muddy swamps fed by melting snow in the rapid springtime thaw.

Executives at the world's largest oil and gas project, known as Sakhalin-2, say they are nearing the finish line as they aim to open up a vast new energy source for the nearby Asian economic powerhouses of Japan and South Korea along with the U.S. and others.


Brazil: Pray, Cheer, and Do the Rain Dance to Stave Off Crisis

An energy crisis will hit Brazil in 2009 or 2010, and not even the discovery of vast undersea oil and gas reserves with "enormous potential yields," as announced by the government, can stave it off, warn experts.


Technology alone will not solve energy crisis

If the lessons of the 1970s had been properly heeded, even though the risk of human-induced climate change was unsuspected at the time, we would be in a much better position to meet the threat it poses today.


UK's first 'sugar fuel' plant opens

The UK's first bioethanol plant, which will produce millions of litres of fuel from sugar each year, is to be officially opened by Environment Secretary Hilary Benn.

The £20 million plant, situated next to British Sugar's processing factory at Wissington, Norfolk, began producing bioethanol for the UK transport market in September.


US Navy steps up fuel deliveries to Gulf forces

The US military has stepped up chartering of tankers and requests for extra fuel in the US Central Command area, which includes the Gulf, shipping and oil industry sources say.

A Gulf oil industry source said the charters suggested there would be high naval activity, possibly including a demonstration to Iran that the US Navy will protect the Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route during tensions over Teheran’s nuclear programme.


Man behind the streak (interview with Bill Miller)

You're still a skeptic on the peak-oil theory?

I'm not a skeptic on the fact that ultimately, production of oil and gas will peak and will go down. I'm a decided skeptic on the notion that we're close to that. This is one of those things you have in energy markets, certainly, and in gold, certainly where you have people who are believers. And they'll get an idea like Hubbert's peak in their heads and then any evidence which is against it, they'll throw out and any evidence which supports it, they are in favour of it.

Cambridge Energy Research just published another field-by-field analysis globally, where they're still making the point that production is going to keep increasing, and you're probably at the earliest 10 years away from a peak.


Path to preservation

Meanwhile, international oil prices have been rising for some time, apparently as a genuine result -- for the first time in years -- of the supply and demand dynamic. To a much lesser degree, this is also due to political unrest. Some experts believe in the theory of peak oil, which speculates that the world is about to reach the peak production rate of 95 million barrels oil per day (BOPD) by the end of this decade. This theory was conceived after a rapid decline in production which began to occur in most major oil fields around the world, and the slow replenishment of world reserves.


Australia - Beyond belief: Turnbull overturns scientific consensus.

Exactly why did Turnbull decide to overturn a decision recommended by an expert scientific panel? This time, the political motive seems even more transparent. The Canberra Times reports that the recommendation was over-turned after pressure from the Prime Minister John Howard to support a rival bid led by Griffith University (Queensland), in order to bolster support for a Liberal electoral candidate (Steven Ciobo) in a key seat on Queensland’s Gold Coast (link).


Western oil companies doomed to become 'niche players' - IEA economist

Western oil companies are doomed to become minor players in the sector, the head economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, predicted.

...'Enormous reserves still exist but mainly in the Middle East. And they do not have access to them,' she said.


The Peak Oil Theory

In short, it is not sufficient to say that an exhaustible resource will be eventually exhausted and that its production will decline until extinction after reaching a peak. These are not predictions. Such statements are of no interest whatsoever unless we are told the dates at which the peak will be reached, and the likely shape of the production curve before and after the peak.


Petrologistics: OPEC-12 Nov Oil Exports +0.324 Million B/D

November oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise by 324,000 barrels a day, fueled by a sharp surge in Iraq's oil production, according to data from Geneva-based Petrologistics.


Watch Out: A Correction in Oil is Coming

The nature of business is cyclical. No matter what.

Take the oil sector for example. Despite the hype and fear being promoted by peak oil theorists, the sector is correcting. The price of crude oil is surging to new highs while many oil companies in the DJIA and S&P 500 have not experienced the same type of explosive price action. This lack of investor enthusiasm to boost oil companies to new highs demonstrates the correction is already under way.


Turkmenistan eyes price hike in gas sold to Russia - Gazprom CEO

Turkmenistan is seeking a hike of at least 30 pct in the price of gas sold to Russia, Interfax news agency reported, citing Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.


Refining hub will be largest in world

Reliance Industries and Essar Oil, India's largest private sector oil refiners, are set to create the world's biggest petroleum refining hub as part of plans to expand their plants in Jamnagar, western India.


South Korean city to focus on climate change in Expo bid

Backed by a 30 million dollar pledge from the South Korean government, the city of Yeosu promises an international campaign on climate change as the centrepiece of its bid to host the 2012 World Expo.


Indonesia's forests, a precious resource in climate change fight?

Indonesia's vast forests have long been seen by governments and businesses alike as a resource to be exploited for massive profit.

But as worldwide climate negotiations approach in Bali next month, keeping the nation's forests just as they are could become a new multi-billion-dollar industry.


Scientists warn of agrarian crisis from climate change

An agrarian crisis is brewing because of climate change that could jeopardise global food supplies and increase the risk of hunger for a billion poorest of the poor, scientists have warned.

South Asia and Africa would be hardest hit by the crisis, which would shift the world's priorities away from boosting food output year after year to bolstering the resilience of crops to cope with warm weather, they said Thursday.

A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.

YEN CARRY TRADE! YEN CARRY TRADE! YEN CARRY TRADE!

'What I haven't been transported to a fantasy world where we still have a functional Yen Carry Trade! Crap!'

EUR - giving back some today...profit maybe, and reaction to YEN !!!

YEN continues to strengthen.

I can't stress enough how bad this is, for everyone...not just the USA.

So now it's the Japanese who are the supermen, "YEN continues to strenthen"YEN CARRY TRADE! YEN CARRY TRADE! YEN CARRY TRADE!

Damm funny ain't it....The Japanese, a nation that has to import EVERY drop of oil and every foot of natural gas it uses, are suddenly the bad azz on the block...gee, you would have thought that peak thing would have affected them...

Meanwhile, the mainstream media attempts to fan the flames of hysteria...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071124/doomsday_scenario.html
""We haven't faced a downturn like this since the Depression," said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund."

Wonder if Bill Goss is old enough to remember the Depression...or even the 1970's for that matter...

So just how bad is this little catastrophe? Well, let's listen to the "experts" (sarcasm intended)...

"Meanwhile, the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure is expected to keep soaring after more than doubling during the third quarter from a year earlier, to 446,726 homes nationwide, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. That's one foreclosure filing for every 196 households in the nation, a 34 percent jump from just three months earlier."

So, one home foreclosure in every 196...and the end of the Western World!!

I live in a town of 1200...that would be some 300 houses if every house had 4 people (they don't, but let's make it easy to count), so that comes out to, what, let's guess to the high side, some 3 or 4 houses in town in foreclosure, let's double that and say 6 houses in town, just to go to the highside and give the benefit of the doubt.

Now there probably are that many houses in town that are in foreclosure....but in truth, there probably has always been at least that many.

Granted, certain markets are in much worse shape...California, Florida, some parts of Arizona....

But the pictures of hoards of Vikings coming through and wiping out the copper plumbing in whole neighborhoods based on the "Mortgage collapse" as being somehow a nationwide problem exceed the realm of probability if we look at the real numbers...and if peak oil is the cause of a cascading catastrophe in America, one would have thought the Japanese would have noticed first....to repeat, they are married to the world oil and natural gas market in a way the Americans even today are not....

This whole thing stinks of a whipped up hysteria....I would suggest we ask outselves who stands to benefit from creating fear and panic, and trying to sink the U.S. economy with these idiotic rumors....

There are those of course who believe that home and auto ownership for the masses was a mistake from the start. I always love to read Kunstler, who's whole philosophy could be distilled down...."the serf's think they have the right to a house and a car?! The nerve of them filthy prols, what in the helll gives them the right??? How dare them, put them back in the worker slums riding the bus where they belong.

The U.S. and the world does, absolutely does, face serious energy and environmental concerns. It has for for many years, whether it was noticed or not.

But tying the idea of "peak oil" to every whipped up hysteria created by a bunch of elitist garbage and assisting the banks in what is a money and home grab of historical proportions reduces the credibility of those who speak seriously about the very serious energy issues we face.

And that is what this is about....the homes are still there, the land is still there, and the money is still in the country, although concentrated in fewer hands in the hedge funds and the Limited Liability Partnerships (the prols don't only want to own houses and cars, the actually think they can own stock in our companies? The nerve of the swine!!)

Folks, we need to get our head back on straight, and look at real numbers, and ask some real "back to the basics questions. We are becoming hysterical sheep, being herded about by every hysteria that comes down the pike.

RC

This is terrible news...

I have just heard from his brother the sad news that

Samsam Bakhtiari has died.

A great man and a great loss.

I wondered that he had stopped his comments
abruptly.

Bakhtiari was a prophet.

Dr. Bakhtiari:

Dear Barbara,

First and foremost, thank you for your best wishes for the future of Iran and the very brave Iranian people. They deserve it.

Secondly, allow me to correct a misconception: I am not an eminent NIOC personality. The present company officials simply detest me (all of 'them') and are doing their utmost to have me quit (after 33 years of service, mainly not to pay me my final bonus and retirement); they certainly couldn't care less about 'peak oil' --- and this is as far I can go in a public forum. I leave it to your imagination to envision the rest...

1) I really don't know how it came about that I am the only OPEC (and Middle Eastern) expert on
'peak oil'. Certainly neither political leaders nor company officials ever guided or encouraged me unto this path (to the contrary). I kind of stumbled on Dr. Campbell's work in 1995 (his days at PetroConsultants) and since ... I have come all this long way (thanks mainly to the Internet). I still have to take from my personal yearly leave of absence and find a sponsor in order to be able attend international conferences. I finance part of my research out of "Letter from Tehran" income.

2) I really don't know why I am so singular within OPEC (although I am not a very common individual, with a eventful past). Maybe the others are told to shut up and do so for their own good (and benefits). I will always speak out.

Well, I hope you were able to read between the lines, because although none of 'them' speaks or reads English, someone (among the Western puppet-masters) might call 'them' to attention. Now, the seemingly apparent contradictions might be beginning to make some sense.."

Full Q&A circa 2004 here:

http://www.energybulletin.net/2303.html

My two-cent tribute.

I simply adored his style.

Remember in the story of 'The Emperor's new Clothes', that the people mostly were willing to tell the Big Jefe that his outfits were astonishing.. (not from obedience, but from fear of ridicule)

Will the new 'fairly tale' be
"The emperor has no reserves." ?

Bob

"Many years ago, there lived an emperor who was quite an average fairy tale ruler, with one exception: he cared much about his clothes. One day he heard from two swindlers named Guido and Luigi Farabutto that they could make the finest suit of clothes from the most beautiful cloth. This cloth, they said, also had the special capability that it was invisible to anyone who was either stupid or not fit for his position.

Being a bit nervous about whether he himself would be able to see the cloth, the emperor first sent two of his trusted men to see it. Of course, neither would admit that they could not see the cloth and so praised it. All the townspeople had also heard of the cloth and were interested to learn how stupid their neighbors were.

The emperor then allowed himself to be dressed in the clothes for a procession through town, never admitting that he was too unfit and stupid to see what he was wearing. He was afraid that the other people would think that he was stupid.

Of course, all the townspeople wildly praised the magnificent clothes of the emperor, afraid to admit that they could not see them, until a small child said:

"But he has nothing on!"

This was whispered from person to person until everyone in the crowd was shouting that the emperor had nothing on. The emperor heard it and felt that they were correct, but held his head high and finished the procession. "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor's_New_Clothes

I owe a debt of gratitude to Dr. Bakhtiari. Like every good scientist I have ever known, he did everything in his power to lead the rest of us to better pasture.

I am afraid of what this implies.

The people of this world have lost one of our best. I pray God welcome him home and say "well done".

Steve

I understand he is one of the more pessimistic PO-alarmbell-ringers. I also understand that all his predictions so far were spot on.

With his track record, this is indeed a major loss. For the entire world. His 4 phases of transition (see Substrates link) can be taken as a guide for the future. Read it.

Yes, his prediction is still one of the best, in Khebab's "spaghetti" production graphs. Pretty impressive, considering his is one of the older forecasts.

There is one line in that graph I really don't get. I've inquired before but still don't understand.

It's that light green line going in to orbit, never to come back. If it is Koppelaars'as indicated in the legenda, why is it not coming down? Rembrandt say PO in 2012-2015. It looks more like IEA's or CERA's to me.

I would guess that that forecase simply stopped before it came down, not that it's never coming down.

Then why is it included in this graph?

Why not? It's a forecast of future production.

Well, it doesn't come down in the graphs' timeframe. Who's forecast is it? And it is really not much of a forecast anyway. This green line runs out of sight in 2010

I think the forecast was just "no peak before 2012." That is a forecast that is of interest, and it doesn't mean Koppelaar thought there would never be a peak.

Sad, sad news!

Yes, his style was wonderful. I found his essay "A Century of Roots" to be prticularly perceptive and moving.

He will be missed.

graywulffe

It has been posted on his web site:

Dear friends and associates,

Regrettably we inform you that Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari passed away in October month 2007.

Dr. Samsam-Bakhtiari's funeral and burial ceremony took place in Tehran, Iran.

We thank you in advance for supporting our father's objectives during his career. All inquiries may be directed to *****.

Sincerely,

Golbenaz & Amir Bahman Samsam Bakhtiari
Vancouver B.C. 2007

He will be sorely missed. He was one of my favorites, and one of the best. Any info on cause of death...or why it took 3+ weeks for the news to reach us?

...To add my voice to the many here, and extend heartfelt sympathy to Samsam Bakhtiari's family. I found his work to reflect an integrity and sense of care I admired.

I just sat down with my two oldest kids (ages 11 and 13) and watched Oil Apocalypse. They are now terrified, but much more understanding of why I do some of the things I do. I plan to have a difficult conversation on this topic with my extended family (brother, sister, parents, in-laws) over Christmas. We have a fair amount of farmland in a sparsely populated area. We have a lot of game in the area, and most of us hunt and fish. I think that puts us in better shape than most.

Please note that this is not to imply that I think all is lost. It's just that as I have noted before, it's better to be prepared. All may in fact be lost. But the future is hard to predict. My philosophy for a long time has been to look to, and try to shape a better future - while keeping my hand on the escape hatch.

I have not yet seen it, but I searched for a replay of it. Saturday, December 8 at 2PM on the History Channel.

http://www.history.com/shows.do?episodeId=251195&action=detail

Rick

I haven't seen this, but have seen "A Crude Awakening", which I thought was very well done. How would you compare the two?

I haven't seen "A Crude Awakening." But "Oil Apocalypse" certainly held my kids' attention. They are informed now, which eases my job. Too often I have to repeat to them why it is important to conserve energy, and why I drive a Nissan Micra instead of an Expedition.

I did what your planning to do yesterday at Thanksgiving.I proposed change not in terms of peak oil but from history that in the 73 oil embargo that we had a 5% reduction and the results were even odd buying no Sunday sales 55mph and some places limits.And now we get 12% or so from Mexico and they say in less than 5 yrs they will be an importer.I got this glazed look almost a turning away like looking at a car wreck with the driver lying in the road.You have to remember half the USA population now wasn't even born in 1973 and another good portion was riding in the back seat.The only comment I got was we haven't built any refineries in 20 yrs.my comment back was why would you build a refinery if you didn't have the oil or know you wouldn't have enough to run it.Most people need to hear 3 good things to one bad to feel secure my wife tells me my dna is messed up.Looking back I might be getting coal in my sock for Christmas,

Looking back I might be getting coal in my sock for Christmas,

Looking past peak oil, that'll be a damm good gift!

Incidentally, all my friends think I am loony too - foregoing all the pleasures of capitalistic binges for loser investments like education and solar panels - when I could have bought a night on the town.

This forum attracts those of us who take great comfort in knowing what is likely coming our way and being prepared to deal with it. I don't have to worry about the car failing to start when I know exactly how the car works, nor do I find myself at the mercy of those that do. Nor do I intend to worry about being fed, freezing, or whatever Nature throws at me.

The only thing I fear is authority figures who confiscate - instead of building - what they want.

Robert,

Regarding what we tell the kids, weirdly enough in an about face, typical of me, after months of telling my kid about TEOTWAWKI in a matter of fact way, a few days ago as I walked him to school I told him optimistically and enthusiastically that we two(my son and I) together would find a way to stop the pollution and save the planet from GW, putting my arm around his shoulder (he is 8) and he said by evening he would have a plan to take all the gases from the air etc. to stop GW(by evening all forgotten of course). On the same day I posted on TOD Europe the following:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3263#comments

QUOTE
You have to do both at the same time for it to work. For instance earth is a command economy with a total energy or FF allocation in Joules or CO2 output. We divide that amount by the number of people and get a certain ration amount for free. You can sell your ration to someone richer and live off the income so he can drive his Mercedes or fly.

Meantime the UN climate/PO board can decide the annual total quota for earth to reduce or maintain climate targets. Maybe depletion/peak FFs will make that a mute topic but it is an idea.

To make this actually work all energy sources would become international property to avoid energy nationalism/ELM effect.

Draconian conservation measures, etc. would be imposed to maintain this regimen to avoid energy wars.
UNQUOTE

To sum up my current attitude, I have no use for pessimism as I have everything to lose when I just freeze in panic staring down the barrel of a gun.

“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24

For me the oposite is true.

Optimism breeds complacency.

Pessimism gets my ass in gear.

P.S. My 10yo daughter gets "it" and is plugging into community, gardening, holistic health (she is our herbologist), etc.

My 16yo son still believes globalization will address everything. I'm working on him.

Hey, souperman, thanks. I've never understood why, if everything is peaches and cream, anybody would do anything either.

Pessimism gets my ass in gear.

Pessimism, anger over lack of action, etc. They all work for me.

Well, get going!

Yep, that's my life for 3 years. Sometimes maybe in circles but that's no different than what I see here often in spades. :)

You walked your son to school? Walked? OMG I didn't think that was possible anymore. Where do you live? Where I live nobody even walks their kid to the bus stop and they live just a few houses away. They fire up their Yukons, minivans and trucks and leave the engines running while they wait for the bus. If you drive your kid to school you will sit in your car wasting gas waiting for 15 min or more to drop your kid off. Here's to $10 a gallon gas, which probably still won't change any of these lazy habits

The car lanes of today are the bike lanes of tomorrow.

I am in Hamburg Germany.

And quite right you are too. I never owned a car yet.

I walked him halfway to the corner of the large street and saw that he got over the traffic. My wife watched this week from the window how one of our neighbours in our apartment house drove out of the underground park house with their kid to same school just a few minutes away by foot. She complains that since the number of police have been reduced due to budget cuts that they don't patrol in front of the school and the people park on top of each other on the dead end little street to the school so it is almost impossible even by foot to come pick them up or bring them to school.

“Without a video the people perish”-Is. 13:24

from the 2004 Bakhtiari Q&A:

"Un homme averti en vaut deux"
- "An aware individual is worth twice an unaware one"

Well in contrast, I just had my 4 year old in my lap, and we trolled YouTube for funny cat videos. Don't I feel like a schmuck.. not really, but I'm glad you are breaching the topic with your family. Lorelei and I did just run up the stairs to turn on the Solar Charging Station, which is still in a bit of 'Testing Mode', so I'm not leaving it engaged day and night.. and the Sun did come out, so we've got a whopping 2.6 amps (about 31watts) drizzling into batteries, until I get the rest of the panels attached..

We drove to the Boston area for Thanksgiving yesterday, where my Cousin's wife is a Bond-trader, and was a little ominous about the likelihood of recession, and not to make any big purchases at the moment, or incur debt.. Her dad is a retired Electrical Engineer who consults on NE infrastructure issues, and I've asked him to have a conversation with me about HVDC grids, and the issues he sees in the Northeast's Grid right now.. I'd love to know how to get a discussion going between the foresight that his daughter has in Bond Trading and he in Power Infrastructure.

It seems that the art of devising a series of interdisciplinary conversations would be really useful, as we look at the 'gridlock potential' of each of these systems on one another, and the corresponding tunnel-vision required for those who specialize in their respective fields..

I saw this article concerned with 'PO Gridlock' yesterday, and don't remember whether it was ever posted here, or if the author is a TOD regular. Here is a segment where he outlines the layers of petrol-dependent activity that could gridlock with fuel shortages, just in the energy production sector..

"Interdependence in the Production of Energy

The production of each type of energy is highly dependent on other types of energy. Shortages or high energy prices for one type of energy will limit the production of other energies. Oil is critically important in the production of all forms of energy. Shortages in oil will mean shortages in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Thus oil rig workers won’t be able to travel to the oil fields and off-shore platforms; coal won’t be mined or transported; electric power won’t be generated in some plants; roads and bridges won’t be maintained; and spare parts won’t be delive