DrumBeat: December 15, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 15, 2007 - 4:44pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Fuel costs take toll on outer-tier suburbs
It's the price of fuel and commuting, and not just the housing market, that's choking the Twin Cities' outer-tier suburbs, East Bethel finance director Bob Sundberg said recently. Unpredictable gas prices and unforgiving stop-and-go roadways have kept potential commuters from moving farther away from Minneapolis and St. Paul, he said.
CEG deal for power won't aid BGE area
Constellation Energy Group said yesterday that it has contracted to buy all of the power from a new gas-fired generator being built in York County, Pa., to help alleviate a looming energy shortage in the Mid-Atlantic power grid.The project being built by Conectiv Energy will improve overall reliability of the grid, but energy experts said it would do little to lower prices or solve a projected energy shortfall for Baltimore Gas and Electric customers in Central Maryland. A shortage of high-capacity power lines will prevent the area from tapping into the new power source for years to come.
UAE says Gulf revaluations “still an option”
A decision by Gulf Arab countries to keep dollar pegs is final but revaluations are still an option for central bankers in the oil-exporting region, the UAE central bank governor said in remarks published on Saturday.
Kuwait inflation hits 15-year high: official data
Inflation in oil-rich Kuwait hit 7.3 percent in the first nine months of 2007, the highest figure for 15 years, the state KUNA news agency reported, citing official statistics.
The Philippines: Oil Price Hikes Drain Drivers’ Income
The income of jeepney drivers – the Philippines’ so-called “kings of the road” – has plunged miserably since the advent of the Oil Deregulation Law, and more miserably this year owing to the recent wave of oil price hikes.
The Philippines: Carrying the Burden of Oil Price Hikes
Because of the inaction of the Arroyo government, the burden being caused by the oil price increases is being borne by the driver who has already lost almost half of his/her income, and the consuming public who had to cope with the corresponding increases in the prices of basic commodities, services, and utilities. While on the other hand, giant oil companies and financial speculators gain superprofits from these increases.
Scottish Gas warns of price rises next year
Energy companies yesterday gave the clearest signal yet that bills could rise next year, after warning of a "difficult environment" in 2008.
£1.83 petrol will stop us filling up
PETROL prices must reach £1.83 per litre before motorists hang up their car keys and stop driving, according to the RAC.
Resourcefulness aside, Mainers struggle with rising energy costs as aid is overdue
Dolly Jordan of Milbridge turns her furnace down low at night and pulls on extra blankets to help stay warm. Sometimes she has to get up in the night and turn the furnace up to "toast up" the house, but she always turns it back to low before returning to bed."That’s the way I keep going through the winter," Jordan said in a telephone interview this week. "But I just feel sorry for the other people."
Jordan’s story is not so different from those of thousands of other Mainers who struggle to conserve fuel and still heat their homes through the winter. They are resourceful and find a way to get by, and besides, there is always someone worse off.
Gas station owners making 'pennies'
Although gas prices are staying near $3 a gallon these days, service station owners aren't making much on the gas they sell, according to a representative for Arizona's petroleum marketers."As gas prices go up, retailers actually make less money," said Andrea Martincic, spokeswoman for the Arizona Petroleum Marketers Association, during a visit Friday to Yuma. "Like the consumer, they are hurting too. It's a very hard business for them to be in."
Mexico to Expand Refinery in 2008
Mexico's state-owned oil company plans to complete an expansion of one of its refineries in the second half of next year, part of a plan to reduce gasoline imports, the Energy Department said in a report.
Eye-Popping Chevron '08 Capex Signals Bullish Outlook
While all the oil majors have been raising their capital budgets in recent years, the most dramatic mover has been Chevron Corp. (CVX), which spent $8.3 billion in 2004.The California company last week announced it would spend $22.9 billion next year, up 15% from this year's level.
Greetings From David Sandalow: Author of "Freedom From Oil"
Over the next few months we will be exploring our addiction to oil as well as the economic, environmental, and national security issues associated with the current energy crisis - all as oil is flirting with reaching the $100 per barrel mark.Not to worry, we will also discuss solutions for solving this problem, including my vision for ending our dependence on oil. I will also share with you profiles of extraordinary individuals who are doing important work to help bring serious policy dialogue to life - from a commander of U.S. forces in Iraq to the winner of the Indy 500.
Bill Richardson: A New Realism
A fifth trend transforming our world is the increase in global economic interdependence and financial imbalances without the sufficient growth of institutional capacities to manage these realities. Globalization has made every country's economy more vulnerable to resource constraints and financial shocks that originate beyond its borders. A global energy crisis or a sudden collapse of the U.S. dollar could do great damage to the world economy.
Senate OKs amdt to close Enron loophole
"It's past time to put the cop back on the beat in U.S. energy markets to stop price manipulation and excessive speculation," said Senator Levin. "The provisions we are adding to the farm bill will finally close the Enron loophole and stop speculators from using unregulated energy markets to game the system and distort energy prices in ways that hurt consumers. By strengthening market oversight and transparency, our legislation will help put the lid on excessive speculation and restore energy prices based on supply and demand instead of trading distortions."
Home-grown electricity hoping to gain support
“Small wind is poised for pretty significant growth. Technological advances have been made and engineers are hard at work, but it's really the high upfront costs that are the hurdle. People want them they just can't afford them at the moment.”
Don't put taxpayers on the hook for high-risk nuclear power
While we may not agree on the federal government's role in solving our nation's energy crisis, we both agree that the latest attempt by the nuclear industry to secure expensive subsidies on the backs of the taxpayers is a bridge too far.
Open PC Beta for Frontlines: Fuel of War Now Available
Based upon actual locations in Central Asia, Frontlines: Fuel of War takes players on a campaign featuring seven unique theaters of war. In a world ravaged by a global energy crisis, environmental decay, and a new economic depression, the story follows a division of Western Coalition soldiers (The Stray Dogs) through a dark vision of our future. Players assume the role of an elite soldier in the Stray Dogs on an epic crusade against the Red Star Alliance to control the last of the world's oil reserves.
Matt Simmons: Is Our Energy System “Sustainable?”
Certain Facts Are Hard to Ignore:■ Our energy system is aging.
■ Reservoirs are finite resources. The more one uses, the sooner it is gone.
■ The long value chain from rigs to well-bore casings to pipelines, etc. are all built of steel.
■ Steel corrodes as it ages.
Kentucky: Lawmakers Look at Future Energy Needs
The U.S. must start making decisions now on how it will weather a decline in its share of the world's oil supply, the head of the state's Center for Applied Energy Research (CAER) told state lawmakers yesterday."What we need to realize is whether peak oil production is here or is coming ... isn't really the question," CAER's Executive Director Rodney Andrews told the Interim Joint Committee on Agriculture and Natural Resources. "The question is that our share of what's available is going to continue to decrease, because the rest of the world is demanding more and is willing to pay for it--more than we ever have."
Venezuela Would Support Brazil's OPEC Membership
Venezuela plans to support Brazil's possible membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Venezuela's oil minister said Thursday."We would support it," Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters after a joint event with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
To EJ Hawkins On My 2020 Vision
It cannot be doubted that it is going to take a whole heck of lot of fossil fuel to get us off of fossil fuels. The oil companies are not the problem. Oil and gas molecules are incredibly wonderful and beautiful gifts from mother nature and extracting them is becoming an increasingly difficult technical challenge. We will need those molecules and our oil and gas companies for a good long time, certainly for the rest of this century, if we are to maintain the level of information sophistication that you and I so very much enjoy that it is one of our principle pleasures.
Big Business interests undermine a lifetime of free energy for consumers
A “Lifetime of Free Energy” is possible for each human being on the planet, yet the very idea is being squashed in the name of Corporate Profit by Political puppets.
Low turnout for British fuel duty protests
British hauliers, farmers and motorists threatened more action next year over record petrol and diesel prices after a planned day of protests on Saturday largely fizzled due to a low turnout.Britain's ruling Labour Party has faced several protests against high fuel taxes, but none has matched the 2000 blockades that caused widespread fuel shortages, paralysed large swathes of the country and nearly brought the government to its knees.
Louisiana pipeline blast kills one
A motorist was killed and another was injured when the Columbia Gulf natural gas pipeline in northeast Louisiana exploded on Friday afternoon near an interstate highway, said a Louisiana State Police spokeswoman.All three natural gas lines that make up Columbia Gulf Pipeline, which carries natural gas to the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast United States, were shut at the blast site near Delhi, Louisiana, pipeline operator NiSource Inc said in a posting on its Web site.
Energy companies drill more wells from single locations
Technological advances and Americans' hearty appetite for natural gas have given Anadarko Petroleum Corp. the opportunity to break new ground — literally and figuratively — in this remote, rugged region of the Rocky Mountains.On a cliff several hundred feet above the White River, Texas-based Anadarko is drilling 17 wells from a single location — a dozen more than it's drilled from a single site in the past.
Malaysia's Petronas to build platforms in Turkmenistan: TV report
ASHGABAT (AFP) - Malaysia's national oil company has been cleared to begin building oil platforms and share in pipeline construction in Turkmenistan, local television reported Friday.
Indigenous people describe real perils of global warming
Indigenous people, including Canadian Inuit and Indian leaders, are emerging as some of the top stars of the Bali climate-change conference.From the Arctic to the South Pacific islands, indigenous people said they are among the first to suffer the worst effects of global warming.
Global warming worry: Accelerating pace of change
I've been spending some time at the the American Geophysical Union conference here, and I've had a recurring thought: When it comes to apocalyptic predictions, geophysicists have the Book of Revelations beat, hands down.Sometime in the last few years, the idea that global warming is a reality and that it's caused in large measure by people has finally started sinking in. But perhaps because of the remaining skepticism, and more likely because of the fascinating research involved, scientists just can't leave the issue alone.
Defining steps in a global dawning
"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coalmine for climate warming. Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coalmines." The human canaries from the low-lying South Pacific island cluster of Micronesia are trying to get out, but there are limited options for flying. As the sea rises, the people of Micronesia are already moving houses and roads."For us this not about politics," a member of the country's delegation to the United Nations climate change conference in Bali, Jackson Soram, said. "It's about survival." So the negotiations under way this week are timely, and they are also too late.
A big chill for global warming
Up to now, this notion of reversing atmosphere warming with a speedy techno-fix has been discussed only on the margins of climate-change forums. The range of methods, such as forcing giant plankton blooms in oceans to suck up carbon dioxide or reflecting sunlight with sulfate crystals, are uncertain, risky, and to many, "acting like God." And the mere talk of using them might deflect the world's focus away from the long-term need to reduce effluents of coal and petroleum.But with the pace of climate change faster than estimated just a couple years ago – and with the slow pace to curb emissions under the Kyoto treaty and its possible successor – the world needs to start research on hip-pocket ways to "geoengineer" the Earth in a pinch.
The 'twin tsunamis' of global warming and peak oil could spell TEOTWAWKI - the end of the world as we know it - and already, quietly, some people are getting prepared because they believe we are talking years rather than decades.
Growing Food When The Oil Runs out
Most people in modern industrial society get their food mainly from supermarkets. As a result of declining hydrocarbon resources, however, it is unlikely that such food will always be available. The present world population is nearly 7 billion, but food supplies per capita have been shrinking for years. Food production will have to become more localized, and it will be necessary to reconsider less-advanced forms of technology that might be called "subsistence gardening."
Looking Forward to the End of Civilization
The first hour of the new Will Smith movie I Am Legend offers a fascinating glimpse into post-civilization Manhattan. Not post-apocalyptic, like so many movies since Escape From New York, but post-civilization. Because the film's premise is that everyone was killed by a mutant AIDS vaccine, this plague left the buildings standing. Instead of cliched piles of rubble, we are treated to skyscrapers slowly succumbing to resurgent nature. Deer graze in midtown, and trees start to grow in pavement cracks, slowly undermining a city everyone thought would last forever.
Brazil will become an even bigger exporter in a decade or so than projected and could put pressure on the club of petrotyrants that now has a monopoly on resources. Best of all, it throws doomsday assumptions about oil "peaking" on its head.
Peak Oil Passnotes: On the Cusp
Although there is a huge amount written about the oil market, what is genuinely supporting the price of oil are the fundamentals. There is not enough spare capacity in the world and there has been increasing demand from certain areas, notably the U.S., China and India. This is not the fault of OPEC; it is not the fault of “speculators”; it is not the fault of “terrorists” and Middle Eastern governments. It is structural, it is the onset, however you see it coming - and this column does not think it is geological as such - of a peak in global oil production.
Global warming pact set for 2009 after US backs down
World climate negotiators set a 2009 deadline Saturday for a landmark treaty to fight global warming after two weeks of intense haggling led to a climbdown by an isolated United States.
Global Warming: Melting delusions
You know those little sounds ice cubes make when they crack and melt? The Arctic's ice is sending out a loud roar of warnings about global warming.
Russian oil has peaked says The Oil Czar.
Ron Patterson
Following U.S. lead -- it seems like government "investment" is more or less inversely proportional to the production of oil here in the U.S. At some point, the oil becomes beside the point and we see revealed (once again) that the purpose of a government is to enrich a small ruling class, by whatever means is at hand.
The U.S. experiment is no aberration -- in the early days of the republic almost every white male could be a property owner, and thereby, part of the ruling class. Times have changed, but the story is the same-- lots of non-property owners now, and a lot of them are white (and resentful). Time now for scapegoats.
Fear not, though. The churches will eventually make almost everyone believe that it is God's will, and we will return to the slumber of the Dark Ages.
Giant sails for cargo vessels (I'm sure I saw this last year but here is a new article. A boat is getting launched very soon with the system installed. It will of course be getting some hype but I still love the idea (as if it was new!)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3054229.ece
Marco.
My all time hero (rest his soul) has been there, done that with Alcyone;
http://www.cousteau.org/en/cousteau_world/our_ships/alcyone.php
Cousteau was indeed a great innovator and advocate for global environmental awareness.
However, his venture into an innovative form of wind propulsion, as manifested in his ship, the Alcyone, was based on an entirely different form of wind technology than these 'kite' type systems reported in the above article. The Alcyone used a patented 'Turbosail', which essentially consisted of a fixed rigid tower of ovoid cross-section. There were slots built into portions of the sides of the tower and a large exhaust fan on the top of the tower, which sucked air into the sides of the tower, thus creating a low-pressure zone and also allowing for better vortex shedding. I recall that the slots could be adjusted to accomodate wind strength and direction, thus allowing the thrust of the sail to be shifted without actually moving it.
Evidently, it was a very efficient 'sail', but for various reasons, I think partly having to do with structural problems (a large fixed tower on a ship in a bad storm is subject to tremendous stresses), it never really caught on. Perhaps with some improvements it could get a second life.
In general, while these modern 'sails' could concievably give merchant ships a nice boost of power and help conserve energy, I doubt they could be all that effective other than in sailing pretty much directly downwind, as a large merchant ship running on both propellers and sail power would not be very conducive to tacking, a practice which would both lengthen the distance travelled and increase the duration of the voyage, the latter being a real no-no in these days of just-in-time inventory.
While the article hasn't got the diagram, I bought the times newspaper this morning and it has the 'lift' diagram achieving propulsion to 50deg either side of the headwind, just as a sailboat can tack.
So it doesn't necessarily need an exact wind. Obviously it will lose efficiency at greater incidences to the wind but power from 260Deg is pretty good.
I imagine trans atlantic it might only get it one way!
Marco.
The cost of tacking depends on the price of oil. Of course.
The economics of just in time inventory management rests on the rather small advantages in reduced inventory carrying costs. Accordingly, wouldn't a prediction on the time increase / uncertainty involved in tacking as well as an assumption of the costs of increased transit time be required to test your concept?
Years ago I saw a display at the South Street Seaport in New York that indicated that sailing ships survived well into the 20th Century as guano transports for a number of reasons [square rigged experience for ships masters requirements IIRC] but including the time insensitivity of the cargoes ["sh*t happens"? :<)].
Hello R W Reactionary,
Yep, NPK movement just has to happen fast enough to deliver timeliness for synchronization with optimal planting and fertilization cycles. An ocean crossing by sail can take less time than a normal seed-to-harvest cycle. Of course, a ship arriving too late, or not at all, can cause a Liebig minimum disaster.
I wonder about the possability of lowering the sail down through the Hull (vertically), during a storm, to be used as a kind of ballast, and the hydrostatic (?) pressures placed on them in that configuration.
The GP ship Rainbow Warrior did a pretty successful conversion to sail. When purchased it was a quite inefficient diesel-electric. It was ultimately converted with a single high-efficiency direct-drive engine and sails, and could with reasonable wind make decent cruising speed under sail alone despite not being originally designed for it. Worked well 'til the French blew it up.
Visiting the 'sacred site' on the Auckland Harbour wharf where the Frogs bombed her is spooky, sad, but also liberating in a way that's hard to define. The fact that it affects you so much (as it does) perhaps means that your heart and mind are in the right place.
I haven't visited the site, and don't plan to, though I appreciate your calling it 'sacred'. I suppose if anything should be, that would qualify.
It would affect me even if I had no connection. However, I knew the crewmember who was killed, who lived with our family before the voyage. I also bear some responsibility for that boat being brought to the Pacific.
My heart and mind are far afield of the norms, I'm afraid.
Thanks for your comment....
I saw it this evening on TV leaving from my hometown of Hamburg.
The most idiotic quote I have read all year.
Brazil's Not Peaking
Hell, we all know Brazil is not peaking. Perhaps a dozen other countries are not peaking either. But more than half the world’s countries, with over half the world’s oil production have peaked. But the real reason the above quote pissed me off so wasn’t the author’s opinions on oil, or even global warming, it was calling “population-bomb Malthusianism” junk science. To any person has the brains God gave a billy goat it is obvious that the world is overpopulated. Everything bad that is happening to the earth right now, and there are thousands of environmentally tragic things happening right now, is because of overpopulation. And this crap is posted on CNNMoney.com.
Is this a sample of this a true sample of public opinion? Does the average person in the US, Canada or Europe believe that those who say the world is overpopulated are practicing junk science? Well hell, why do I ask such a rhetorical question? The answer is obviously yes. That is why I am such a frigging doomer. There is no hope, no hope. We are all singing and dancing as we all march blindly into a nightmare.
I am reminded of the words of Lester Brown after giving a speech on all the environmental problems the world is suffering right now. Someone asked him how he copes, realizing the dismal situation the world is in and the even more dismal prospects of the future.
His reply: “Good bourbon.”
Ron Patterson
It's on CNN, but the source is Investor's Business Daily. A wingnut site of the free market persuasion. Just seeing them mention peak oil (as they have been doing with increasing frequency) is notable.
Wow, what if oil-rich Brazil moves further to the Left? Chavez in Venezuela seems willing to get it into OPEC, with its vast restless impoverished masses and their pesky rising expectations. What will Investor's Business Daily say then - invade?
How many OPEC countries have restless, impoverished masses? Perhaps tyrannical governments hold that restlessness in check, but on the whole, OPEC seems like a perfect model in the Investors' Business Daily world.
QED: Unemployment in Saudi Arabia is 30% of men and 90% of women. This, a country that is sitting on the largest pile of money in the world.
Incidentally, I often wonder if there is a connection between rapid growth in a given valuable resource and economic collapse (the boom and bust cycle so well known in the western U.S.) The example I like to point to is the Spanish collapse in the 1500s, here they were pulling in 90% of the world's gold from the native americans and the Americas and yet by the late 1500s the government was in debt, their possessions in portugal and the spanish netherlands gone, inflation rampant, etc., etc. etc. One might consider oil wealth to be a modern equivalent.
They collapsed precisely because they were pulling in all that gold. A vast expansion of the money supply without a corresponding increase in the economy's goods and services leads to rampant inflation followed by a deflationary collapse.
As a dual US Brazilian citizen I guess I'd have to apply for asylum in Scandinavia. However to be honest I think it extremely unlikely that Brazil will be moving leftward in the political spectrum anytime soon, especially if they keep discovering oil.
Invasion is highly unlikely, but "yes", to your unvoiced but implied question -- this would be a true milestone for the proletarians of the world.
At this time, just about all of OPEC is made of various statist governments' national oil companies. Whether they are left leaning [communist / marxist lennist], cronnie socialistic, fascist or monarchies makes not one lick of difference. Some are relatively efficient. Some are not.
Unless Chavez's real plan was to reduce Venezuela's oil production [possible but unstated], he has been a total failure in the oil patch. He replaced the evil foreign oil companies [and many skilled workers] with the untrained, various bumblers and his cronies. I suspect that deep water Brazil which faces staggering technical challenges could not withstand Hugo's sort of enlightened management.
BTW, my belief [sorry no cite as this is based solely on experience with old tired oilfields] is that Chavez's mismanagement has reduced the URR of Venezuela as many of the wells that have fallen into disrepair are probably not worth redrilling / redeveloping to the extent necessary [either based on energy return on energy invested or a straight return on investment], but if they would have been managed / maintained could have operated as energy net positive and economically viable stripper wells for decades.
Just seeing them mention peak oil (as they have been doing with increasing frequency) is notable.
There's another example of this in today's WSJ, in an article discussing how rising inflation is hampering Fed monetary policy. There was a comment from Greenspan who has always been somewhat dismissive of peak oil (not that I care much what he thinks on the subject, but his change of posture is noteworthy).
From the article (my emphasis):
WSJ (paywalled)
Wow. o_O
And it's not paywalled. It's free.
Once again I encourage people to read his chapter on energy in his autobiography. (The chapter title is: The Long-Term Energy Squeeze )
I'm not stumping for Greenspan, here. In my view he is the main author of the current mess. But if you want to get an idea of how things are playing out in the bigwig's heads, go to the source.
George: You are advising people to read the autobiography of a consistent, proven, public liar. It might be a good read, but you need to put it into the proper context.
...a consistent, proven, public liar.
Yeah, but that's pretty much a decent label for every political figure in every democracy that ever existed.
Saw a great PBS documentary on ancient Athens recently. Spin is fundamental to democracy they argued.
The key is to catch these guys at their candid moments. And they do have them.
The closer TPTB get to realising that enregy depletion is going to be a very big problem very soon the shriller the voices in the MSM are going to be trying to smother the idea and pick at every last shred or glimmer of hope that could be used to 'diprove' peak oil theory.
I'm with Geoffrey on his iron tirangle idea the Auto/advertising etc... concieveably pull the media strings (apoligies if I have misunderstood you WT).
Also they have to right no keep the poeple spending otherwise the shit really will hit the fan!
So get out there and just buy that 8mpg GMC Behemoth with integrated toilet and WiFi and free fox news television.
Marco.
To reply to myself think a lot of people understand that peak oil is esentially the end of growth economics as we know it. They would just not rather tell the sheeple that. better denying it, sticking your head in the ground and let war do the cover-up bit.
peak oil is esentially the end of growth economics as we know it.
*clap* *clap*
While very true, it is also the inconvenient truth for us that understand and acknowledge the peak oil chrisis - when speaking of the coming peak to anyone they tend to immediately label one as a communist, socialist, idiot or something else remotely flattering. I have essentially stopped talking about the economic consequenses of peak oil, and let people do their own thinking after I've explained what the oil buzz is all about.
the past year has been populated with similar stories and there is usually a reference to "energy expert" yergin.
waste of time and resource. get prepared (and get out if you can) should be the answer.
Nhw, I agree....somewhat. However I am 69 years old and I hope to be safely dead when TSHTF. Looking at the data, I may still be alive, but just barely.
I have three grown children, all boys, and they all think their old man is a little nuts. My oldest son works in Saudi Arabia and makes really good money. He will not even talk to me on the subject. He could be making preparations but simply refuses to even entertain the idea. My grandchildren, (four grown and two still children), get up and leave the room whenever I bring the subject up.
Lester Brown is an old man, as I am. I don't blame him one iota for coping with the situation with good bourbon.
How do I cope? Good bourbon!
Ron Patterson
You are still too young by today's standard and there could well be better use of the bourbon down the road.
Everything will take its due course once a critical point is passed. For the issues that brought us here, the critical point has long since passed.
And that better use is? Bourbon is meant to be drunk and enjoyed.