DrumBeat: December 14, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 14, 2007 - 10:23am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Records aren’t what they used to be. And I am not talking about the steroid stuff. Just take those old records off the shelf because there may not be a new record for oil in 2008. If you like records oil traders will have to live in the past. Year after year, oil has made record highs but this year, it’s not that likely. Every year since 2003, oil has broken the record high set the year before. This has been so common in this era of energy that new highs every year for many traders are just a given. Yet in the year ahead, unless we get a real cold winter or some unusual geo-political event, I doubt that the record high we established in 2007 will be broken in 2008.
Scientists take 2007's temperature
The annual temperature for 2007 across the contiguous United States is expected to be near 54.3 degrees Fahrenheit -- making the year the eighth warmest since records were first begun in 1895, according to preliminary date from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.Worldwide, temperatures were also in record territory. The global surface temperature for 2007 is on pace to be the fifth warmest since those records were first started in 1880, the report said.
Bribery probes seen changing oil services business
A raft of government bribery investigations launched into U.S. oilfield companies is likely to spur reform in the industry, but will also preoccupy top executives and slow business in regions such as West Africa.
Iraqi oil exceeds pre-war output
Iraqi oil production is above the levels seen before the US-led invasion of the country in 2003, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).The IEA said Iraqi crude production is now running at 2.3 million barrels per day, compared with 1.9 million barrels at the start of this year.
Green Christmas can be hard to achieve
Dave Kerr of Albuquerque, N.M., hand-carves furniture made of wood from plantation trees — not virgin and never ever endangered ones. But rather than an emission-free reindeer-guided sleigh, Kerr climbs aboard a polluting plane or into his gas-guzzling car to deliver a sack full of presents to his family sprawled across three states."It's a hard time of year to be green," the 40-year-old says.
Carbon cuts a must to halt warming-US scientists
There is already enough carbon in Earth's atmosphere to ensure that sea levels will rise several feet (meters) in coming decades and summertime ice will vanish from the North Pole, scientists warned on Thursday.To mitigate global warming's worst effects, including severe drought and flooding, people must not only cut current carbon emissions but also remove some carbon that has collected in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, they said.
"We're a lot closer to climate tipping points than we thought we were," said James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "If we are to have any chance in avoiding the points of no return, we're going to have to make some changes."
Agriculture: the price of adaptation
One of the great gifts of crisis is supposed to be the way it helps sort out the difference between what’s essential and what’s not. As we move deeper into the crisis of industrial civilization, that particular gift is likely to arrive in horse doctor’s doses. Those who insist that the first priority in an age of declining petroleum production is finding some other way to fuel a suburban SUV lifestyle, or who hope to see some favorite technology – the internet, say, or space travel – privileged in the same way, risk finding out the hard way that other things come first.
The price of oil is approaching US$100 a barrel, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is accumulating faster than the most pessimistic scenarios are predicting, anthropogenic climate change is occurring. The recognition that the world's scientists, diplomats and media gathered at the Bali climate-change summit are arguing over - the necessity of moving beyond dependency on a fossil-fuelled, carbon-emission-based global economy - is becoming increasingly hard to ignore.
Soaring energy costs fuel retail sales
Soaring energy costs helped fuel a record jump in wholesale inflation and an unexpectedly strong gain in retail sales, government reports showed Thursday, sending mixed signals about the state of the economy.The figures come as consumers struggle to get a fix on their financial future and economists scrutinize statistics, searching for signs of recession or resiliency. The latest economic data hinted at a bit of both.
Syria faces subsidy crunch as oil exports drop
Syria runs on cheap gas oil but can no longer afford to subsidise the fuel whose sulphurous fumes pervade the traffic-clogged streets of Damascus. State finances are already strained by depleting oil reserves that turned Syria into a net oil importer this year.Economists say delays in tackling the subsidy burden when the economy was in better shape have made the problem worse.
Analysts Warn of Fuel Surplus Near-Term in China
Analysts are warning that the Chinese domestic market could experience an oversupply of fuel in the near future due to significant increases in crude throughput in December, after processing growth in November failed to meet market expectations.
New Campaign: 'No New Taxes Means No New Bridges'
There's a long list of needed repairs, a shortage of money to pay for them and a new campaign to raise the gas tax.
Climate Change Drying Up Mountains in Western US
Barnett studies snowpack at high altitudes in the Western United States and estimates the region's snow accumulation decreased an average of 20 percent between 1950 and 1999.Only about one quarter of this decrease can be reliably explained by natural temperature variations. Computer modeling shows the remainder is "a slam dunk" attributable to human activity, said Barnett.
About 50 percent of the fresh water consumed by people worldwide comes from mountains, so the rate at which snowpack is disappearing is worrying, said Daniel Fagre, an ecologist who works for the US Geological Survey in Glacier National Park in Montana.
The Peak Oil Crisis: The Times Drops The First Shoe
For over 25 years now, nobody in America has had to think much about oil. It was cheap, hardly taxed at all (by European standards), and available in unlimited quantities. In the last few years, this has started to change with gasoline circa $3 a gallon, oil in the $90s and, thanks to the ethanol craze, food prices going through the roof. Our newspapers are starting to take notice. The problem has become too big to ignore.
IEA, OPEC differ on 2008 oil demand outlook
OPEC and major oil consumers on Friday presented sharply diverging views on the prospects for world oil demand next year as fallout from the credit crunch clouds the economic outlook.The gap between forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency underscores the reluctance of the producer group to raise output formally even after a surge in oil prices to a record high near $100 last month.
Chinese Bid for Alaskan Gas Pipeline Opposed
Alaska's proposed natural gas pipeline will not be used for exporting gas outside of North America, the state's congressional delegation vowed this week.Alaska's senators and congressman said they would do everything in their power to keep the contract from going to Sinopec ZPEB, a joint venture of two oil-industry companies backed by the Chinese government. U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, who sits on the China-U.S. Interparliamentary Conference, said he would pass on the message to his counterparts in Beijing.
Тhe Real World: Global energy transformed
The other trend taking place with net oil exporters is the negative feedback loop. The higher the price of oil, the more oil exporting economies boom, thereby stimulating their domestic demand. This leads to falling net exports, and even higher prices. According to a recent report by Lehman Brothers Inc, OPEC countries will match rival China in global oil demand growth through 2008 and beyond. It is this rising demand from oil exporting countries and major consuming countries that may offset the Saudi increases.
FOGL Uncovers 10 Billion Barrel Potential in Falklands
Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) reveals encouraging results from the controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) survey with positive CSEM anomalies indicating the possible presence of trapped hydrocarbons in excess of 10 billion barrels equivalent (mean, unrisked).
Biofuel venture reaps growing benefits from "diesel tree"
A Chinese energy company in the southwest province of Guizhou is awaiting its first harvest of more than 13,500 hectares of a "diesel tree", which will yield 15,000 tons of biodiesel oil for the energy-thirsty country.
CARBON projects to bury CO2 are caught between a rock and a hard place as the concluding Bali climate change talks keep them dangling.
Gore makes Nashville home more 'green'
Al Gore, who was criticized for high electric bills at his Tennessee mansion, has completed a host of improvements to make the home more energy efficient, and a building-industry group has praised the house as one of the nation's most environmentally friendly.The former vice president has installed solar panels, a rainwater-collection system and geothermal heating. He also replaced all incandescent lights with compact fluorescent or light-emitting diode bulbs -- even on his Christmas tree.
Oil at $100 resurfaces as demand estimates climb
The demand for oil is expected to beat forecasts for next year driven by China and the Middle East, raising the prospect that fuel prices could head back towards $100 a barrel if supplies remain at their current levels.According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based energy watchdog, global demand for oil in 2008 will grow by 2.3 per cent, or 2.1 million barrels of fuel a day as the world's emerging economies continue to thrive.
OPEC raises estimate for oil demand growth in 2008
OPEC on Friday raised its estimate for world oil demand growth in 2008, owing to fast-growing demand for transport and industrial fuel in developing countries, but kept unchanged its forecast for world oil demand this year.
Senate set to OK fuel economy boost
The Senate appeared set to approve a trimmed-back energy bill that will bring higher-gas mileage cars and SUVs into showrooms in the coming decade and fill their tanks with ethanol.
Spanish gas consumption hits all-time record
Spanish gas consumption hit an all-time daily high on Thursday because of high demand from electricity producers and increased domestic use due to low temperatures, network operator Enagas said on Friday.At 1,803 gigawatt hours (gwh), demand was 9 percent higher than last winter's peak of 1,662 (gwh) hours on Jan. 30.
Conoco backs off $1 billion Alaska spending
The budget was prepared in the fall, before the Legislature raised oil tax rates, said Jim Bowles, Conoco's Alaska president.So although the company's top brass authorized $1 billion for drilling and other Alaska oil field work, Conoco now must re-evaluate all its projects in light of the tax increase, Bowles said.
Is America the Villain in Bali?
Despite the scientific work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighting the urgency of deep and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. - along with Japan, Australia and Canada - has resolutely opposed a European push for the Bali delegates to discuss targeted emissions cuts. That opposition isn't surprising, because the Bush Administration has never hidden its opposition to mandatory cuts. But observers here say the U.S. obstructive role has been more egregious, stymieing attempts to craft meaningful action on everything from deforestation to measures to help developing nations manage their carbon output. "The U.S. has been fingered as the problem here - and they really are," says John Coequyt, climate adviser for Greenpeace.
As ice thins, so does Canada's polar bear population
Polar bears in Canada's Hudson Bay area are battling for survival, as climate change reduces the time they can hunt for food, warn environmentalists and locals in Churchill, the self-proclaimed polar capital of the world.
GOP Candidates Debate Climate Change
With the exception of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., global warming is an issue the Republicans rarely bring up on their own.
Climate skeptics say debate stifled
As Al Gore shows off his Nobel Peace Prize and world policy-makers hammer out a new strategy for saving the planet, climate change contrarians say they have been elbowed out of the debate. They say mainstream scientists have stifled healthy intellectual discourse by demonizing dissenters as oil industry lobbyists or lunatics.
UN climate talks inch towards compromise
The United States and European Union stepped back from confrontation Friday as global talks on climate change headed into extra time amid hopes they could still thrash out a compromise.



A new Finance Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
A Rational Financial Panic
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/14/opinion/14krugman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=sl...
After the Money’s Gone
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 14, 2007
hey Jeffery,
I assume you read "Mish" as well as CR. They are daily reads for me.
D
It is uncanny how events continue to unfold as one would expect--basically following a script from "Peak Oil: The Movie."
I'm anxiously awaiting the musical version before I buy the DVD.
Can you sing and dance? :)
I just found out that the cliche "keeping up with the Jones"
was famous during the Roaring 20's.
And just where did Citi get $58 Billion to cover it's worthless SIV's?
http://www.peakoilblues.com/blog/?p=128
(3) Shopping habits will be hard to break and credit card debt will continue to mount. Many will be incredulous that their homes have not and will not increase in value in the upcoming year, so will continue to rack up consumer debt as if refinancing remains an option. They will believe other people’s houses go down in value, but not their own.
(4) Regardless of their current income, homeowners who begin to believe that their access to ATM home equity has actually stopped will suddenly notice how much more money they owe on their homes and feel dramatically poorer. It will be a shock to learn that even cutting away the “extravagant” spending will not bring their budgets into line. The distinction between “luxury” and “comfort” will be blurry and they will be shocked when forced to realize that “simple pleasures” like vacations or cell phones are “luxuries.” This sense will be pervasive and depressing to them. They will feel “out of it” in being unable to buy the latest “in thing.”
'An economic law of physics
By The Mogambo Guru'
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IL15Dj02.html
...snip...'So I am looking at this Big, Big Problem (BBP) and how it looks like the whole thing is going to degenerate into real work, when I was saved by a little-known law of physics: "If at any time you find yourself doing a transfinite amount of work, the answer can be obtained by inspection'...snip...
'And if you want more proof that people don't have any money, from online.wsj.com we get the headline, "Surge in Auto-Loan Delinquencies Is Latest Trouble for the Economy'
'An interesting bit of trivia is that "car delinquencies are closely linked to the health of the economy", because the "typical delinquent borrower" made a reasonable, good-faith estimate of the future economy, and buying the car "seemed like a manageable payment". It turns out the economy did NOT turn out as expected, and now the borrower can't make the payment. Bad, Bad News (BBN)'
'With a little history thrown in ("That is the biggest one-month jump in at least eight years"), I will take this interesting bit of automotive trivia to bring up the fact that if you have to choose between your house or your car, a car is more important than a house, as you can live in your car, but you cannot drive your house to someplace looking for a job, or to the street outside of your parents' house where you can park and look so miserable day after day that they finally get embarrassed and agree to let you into their house where you can gradually take over after stuffing them both in a nursing home against their will.
So you get another house to live in, and you still have a car to drive!' :)
For myself, it is the other way around. I could walk to work, shopping, etc. But I must have the house.
Hi
With such a globally interconnected sandcastle tower of debt on debt it shouldn't take much of a shock , possibly like Mrs Murtze not buying that Christmas salad shooter, for dearest cousin Mildred, to cause even the fine porcelain vases in China to tumble off their great wall.
As you might easily discern, and with good reason, I am not the CR that DelusionaL mentions on his recommended financial reading list:)
CR
And the world dumping the USD won't help.
Russia to dump waning dollar - The world exodus continues
Russian oil firm Rosneft will follow the lead of Gazprom and LUKOIL to sell crude in rubles amid the ongoing depreciation of the dollar.
"Selling for rubles is much more attractive," Deputy Chief Executive Officer Leonid Fedun said on December 12.
Iran, the world's fourth most prolific oil exporter, has already abandoned the dollar, Iran's Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari said on December 9, describing the currency as unreliable.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=34978§ionid=3510213
Meanwhile the US dollar soars on the news....me thinks that currency markets aren't as simple as you think.
There's a point when there is a difference between being an optimist for mankind, and a shill for the authority of a particular empire that exploits optimism to steal, kill and pollute.
The United States dollar is the form of capitalist authority, and capitalists and their banks across the world are pulling out all ethical stops to preserve it, instead of investing all they have in the available world-saving technologies that you laud for 15 minutes until the next one comes along. Who does this state of affairs benefit?
There's a point when there is a difference between being an optimist for mankind, and a shill for the authority of a particular empire that exploits optimism to steal, kill and pollute.
Bravo. Thanks for telling it like it is. Now if you could just take him out back and beat the daylights out of him.
right, an euro is only worth $1.44 with the "soaring" dollar
Meanwhile the US dollar soars on the news
And you see this over the last 10 year graph trend?
me thinks that currency markets aren't as simple as you think.
You can thinks whatever you want about your own skills.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ig_Nobel_Prize_winners
Psychology - Presented to David Dunning of Cornell University and Justin Kreuger of the University of Illinois, for their modest report, "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".
It'll be a rocky rest of the year in money. So much to hide, so little time.
As I said yesterday, of course the new Fed plan won't work, it can't. And they know that very well. It just buys them time to throw more money at the banks. It's called wealth transfer. That TAF was already a strange attempt to make the discount window more attractive, and now they do one better: they buy paper at the value it had prior to September 2006. Will the Fed now buy people's upside down homes at that value too? Right!
And Citigroup takes its SIVs on the balance sheet, after "pruning" them down from $83 billion to $49 billion. Wonder where the rest of that body lies buried. The move also effectively kills the SuperSIV that Paulson was concocting (and couldn't pull off). That frees up time for even more of these wealth transfer schemes. Someone will pay for all this. You are a prime candidate.
For more on all this gracefulness, see the Finance Round Up.
Stoneleigh,
These roundups are a lot of work and I just wanted to say thank you. I'm having lunch with a friend who is not financially sophisticated and we're going to be reading the links in the most recent roundup. Another associate yesterday did some reading and he is looking into turning his 401k into precious metals. The world is headed for a real mess, but perhaps I get to cushion some people close to me thanks to your editing efforts.
You're welcome, from both of us :)
Me too. The financial round-ups are the first thing I look for. I'm legal conservator for my elderly mother--and I use the round-ups to help educate attorneys and the court on appropriate financial management.
Over 100 Prominent Scientists Warn UN: Attempting To Control Climate Is ‘Futile’
Wow, let's dissect that a bit.
This sounds like quite a bit of rhetoric from those that would have to change their behavior to reduce CO2 emissions. In particular, the words "non-polluting gas" and "essential to plant photosynthesis" are key must say phrases , intended to make our CO2 emisions sound almost benevolent... i.e., 'all of the trees, forests, and plants will be so much more lush and wonderful'.
"future prosperity" depends directly on the measure of prosperity, and refers in this case to profits.
A more appropriate definition would take into account that we need a planet that can support 7 billion people, and climate change may decrease that support ability.
The thread of truth here is that it may indeed be impossible for us to decrease our consumption. One would have to look to historical events where global consumption of resources were reduced, if there are any.
You missed the point all together.
"The scientists, many of whom are current and former UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scientists,"
There are the VERY scientists who you people have used to claim there was a "consensus".
These guys have obviously had enough of the nonsense and have decided to make their views public.
EU, US in climate deal standoff - CNN.com
Rosa said the European delegation said it is not "blackmailing" Washington, ... that if no deal is completed in Bali, it cannot be built upon in Hawaii. ...
edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/12/13/climate.conference/index.html - 71k - Cached - Similar pages
4TH LD: EU threatens to boycott U.S.-led climate meet if no ...
The European Union on Thursday threatened to boycott a U.S.-led meeting of ... at the Hawaii meeting, Rosa only said he does "not mean to blackmail" the ...
www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8TGJVQG1&show_article=1 - 62k -
If it is not what American wants then it must be "blackmail". Sounds like reverse psychology since the blackmail is actually coming from the US.
Okay, let's take a look at the names...
Out of 100 so-called scientists, only four (4) "FOUR" had any connection with the IPCC, and their connection was "reviewer", whatever that means.
Here are the names...
* Tom V. Segalstad - geologist
* Richard S. Courtney - Technical Editor for CoalTrans International(!)
*Vincent Gray - Coal Researcher
*Madhav Khandekar - meteorologist
But you don't need to believe me, check the names yourself.
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/963
Notice, no climatologists whatsoever.
Always, check the source and follow the money.
From reviewer to prominent scientist in one easy step.
"Reviewer" is someone who reads the report - checks it for errors, makes suggestions; a proofreader, basically - and not someone who writes the report.
Assuming you're correct, I would categorize the linked story as intentionally deceptive, and possibly outright lying.
Not only is it deeply misleading to describe 4 as "many of" 100, it's at least as misleading to imply that they were authors of the report, rather than reviewers. That kind of deception appears to be an attempt to give people the false impression that the IPCC authors have changed their minds, when in fact these are simply different people.
More importantly they are not even atmospheric scientists. Meterologists don't typically have enough of an education to qualify for reviewing climate papers.
Give me their names and I'll give you the list of checks cut from Exxon and Chevron. You know how many 'scientists' are in their bankroll??
The phrases are right out of the Exxon marketing pamphlets that go to their nonprofit beneficiaries.
The word SUSTAINABILITY is forbidden to be uttered by any Exxon employee, not in correspondence or email.
Good job spreading their message around jrwakefield. You probably don't even know you are doing it. I suppose you have a little cognitive dissonance. Trying to save your SUV lifestyle are you??
"Give me their names and I'll give you the list of checks cut from Exxon and Chevron."
Dr. Richard Lindzen. Go ahead, show me the cheque he got. BTW, their names are all at the end of their letter did not not read it?
Also, as I have pointed out, with the reference from Newsweek, that the total amount spent supporting AGW is $50 BILLION over the past 20 years, not including donations to organizations like the Suzuki Foundation.
Interesting and typical, again, you attempt to discredit the messenger not the message.
There is nothing wrong with discrediting a messenger when they are paid to defy science which holds polluting and economically bullying industries responsible for their products and their processes. This hasn't been a process with the intent of finding truth, but to cloud uncomfortable conclusions for long enough to cash in for as many fiscals as possible.
Calling this somewhat Homogenized collection of nuanced conclusions reached by a wide range of scientists 'Groupthink' while turning a willfully blind eye to the cynical anti-science and demonstrable Groupthink of the FF Industries and 'Professional Deniers' in this process is intellectually dishonest. I'm sure there are skeptics who arrive at their position sincerely, but I still have to wonder how much their ideas have been manipulated by the obvious vested interests that are working hard to avoid their responsibility.
Bob Fiske
You of course have to prove such messengers are paid to be denialists. Implying by drive-by-smear is no proof. I'm most certainly NOT paid by anyone to post here.
Also, the issue of who has what vested interest goes both ways. How much vested interest do people like Gore have to keep the message going? What will happen to them if things fall apart?
It goes both ways.
The question on everybody's mind: Could you be paid NOT to post here?
You posted a crap article. It's been ripped to shreds. Yet you nit-pick exactly how it's being ripped to shreds. Surely you have better things to do with your time.
I agree that there is too much "kill the messenger" going on here. The attractive thing about TOD is that it is usually more sophisticated than that. JRWakefield is doing a good job stimulating discussion on an important issue.
Following the link to the Canada Free Press article, then to the first paper by Schwartz quoted as overwhelming "evidence", the following statement appears in the conclusions of the paper:
While Schwartz' paper is interesting and probably somewhat thought-provoking to climate modelers, his results were based on a very high-level approach without all the nitty-gritty detail in the climate models. He also de-trended the data to tease out a simpler conclusion. Using this paper as a basis for eliminating concerns about AGW is ridiculous, but the paper is an interesting contribution to the field. If the signatories to the letter are using this as the basis for their position, they have a very weak position.
I disagree. While I haven't read every post he's made, I've seen none that points us to any legitimate science. Anyone clinging to the appeal to authority really does not belong in a serious discussion of a problem of this enormity, do they? All that says is, "There are dissenters!" Well... duh!
All I want from any skeptic is science. They have little or none to offer, and the preponderance is such that short of a smoking gun, even that little means almost nothing.
JRW is doing a disservice to his kind. People are going to die because people like him either lied or were fooled into believing the line fed them by Exxon and the Bush Administration. In many areas of life that is considered negligent manslaughter, manslaughter, negligent homicide or homicide. This is not hyperbole. I am coming to a point.
The weakest point in the armor of the denial crowd is this: they are asking for proof before action. In no other area of endeavor is scientific certainty required before action. There is precious little scientific certainty to be had, for those that actually understand scientific process. Yet, in this one instance, they demand a level of rigor that is not only far beyond the standard, but is, in fact, impossible. This begs the question: Why?
The question begs an answer: Because those intent on creating dissent stated in writing that their aim was to do as they had done with cigarettes: create doubt to prevent action against that which they knew to be true: cigarette smoking kills. This is murder, is it not? Knowingly and intentionally creating a product that entraps the customer armed with the knowledge that it will kill a certain percentage of the customers.
Is the GW debate any different? No. They said so. We have seen the memos. And we have seen politicians gut scientific reporting without cause and without the least expertise. That is, they were not qualified to do so.
So, they ask us to disbelieve a pile of evidence so overwhelming as to swamp almost every other issue of public policy ever discussed. Few public policy issues have had the level and extent of scientific investigation that GW has had, yet people, organizations and nations have acted. Without absolute proof. It is, in fact, what politicians are paid to do: take the disparate bits of information, imperfect as they are, and intuit what is best to be done. It is, as earlier alluded, the rare occasion when they have absolute proof. For, if every issue were scientifically proven, there would be no need for decision makers. Politicians would quite simply not exis