DrumBeat: December 12, 2007


Platts: The top 10 oil industry stories of 2007

We want your help. We want you to tell us what you think were the 10 biggest oil industry news stories of 2007.

This was an eventful year in our business; really, what year isn't? But certainly, it does seem like the industry was buffeted by change and crosscurrents at a pace that exceeds most years. So we've set up a survey on Survey Monkey. You can get there by clicking this link.

EIA: OPEC Oil Production to Rise 400,000 B/D in 1Q `08

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day over current levels in the first three months of 2008, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.


Thruway truckers: Raise tolls and we'll exit

The New York State Thruway Authority's plan to raise tolls to make up for fewer-than-expected drivers could push even more traffic off the highway, according to truckers.


Lukoil May Switch to Oil, Gas Sales in Rubles Within Two Years

OAO Lukoil, Russia's largest independent oil producer, may start selling crude and gas in rubles within two years as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.

``Selling for rubles is much more attractive,'' Deputy Chief Executive Officer Leonid Fedun said in an interview in New York today. ``Gazprom is considering introducing ruble-denominated contracts and I think that technically Russian companies can do it by 2009 if the banks are ready.''


Our view on energy mandates: States wean from fossil fuels, so why can't Washington?

Take Texas, where a modest renewable electricity requirement in 1999 helped spawn a robust wind energy industry, in part by reassuring investors that if they sank money into wind turbines, there'd be a market for them. It's a good example of the government setting a goal and private enterprise figuring out how to get there.

It's curious, then, that the same guy who signed that bill as governor of Texas — George W. Bush — is now the enemy of a plan that would impose a similar requirement across the USA.


Pete Domenici: Let the states decide

As a longtime voice on energy issues in the Senate, I have a strong record of advancing renewables such as wind, solar and biomass to meet our nation's growing energy needs. I spearheaded the largest tax credits in history to encourage the development of these technologies, and I fought for new wind farms from California to Cape Cod.

Even so, I oppose the so-called federal Renewable Electricity Standard (RES). Not only would this one-size-fits-all mandate punish those living in states without sufficient natural resources, it would likely fail to bring more renewable electricity on line.


Oil-eating bugs may unlock clean energy from crude

A tiny oil-eating bug that lives deep underground may allow the world's oil industry to unlock energy trapped in trillions of barrels of heavy crude, which is costly and dirty to produce using today's methods.

British, Canadian and Norwegian researchers have shown how microbes in oil reservoirs break down crude and release methane gas, a discovery that could spur much more environmentally friendly energy production as resources get more scarce.


Toshiba to ship new rechargeable battery

Toshiba plans to make a quick-charging new battery for forklifts, construction machinery and other industrial use.

Toshiba Corp.'s Super Charge ion Battery, to start shipping in March, can recharge to 90 percent of its full capacity in less than five minutes, Toshiba spokeswoman Hiroko Mochida said.


We Are What We Eat

When we fully realize or finally admit the effects of climate change, peak oil, and globalized food as our primary source of food, food from international sources will be more expensive than local food. How do we get back to where local food is normal and affordable, and food from far away is exotic and truly expensive? We have successfully wiped out most of the farms and do not have many farmers left. I can only hope that we can start supporting our local farmers-real support, not the tokenistic once in a while local treat. We must face the reality that urban sprawl must give way to farmland. We must realize that we cannot eat beef every day, but, at least when we do it won't kill us. This will involve spending more of our money, but soon the amount we spend on food will feel normal and not expensive. Americans pay less per capita than anyone else in the world for food.


IEA to blame for $100 oil spike - Groppe

When the oil price soared to over $99 per barrel earlier this year, the cause was not surging demand, nor speculation, nor even impending peak oil, but a forecasting error by the International Energy Agency. That’s according to a presentation by veteran analyst Henry Groppe, one of the most original thinkers in the oil patch.


Italy's truck drivers defy back-to-work order and continue strike

Italy's truck drivers defied a government order and continued to strike Wednesday, blocking highways and borders in a protest that idled factories, left gasoline pumps dry and grocery shelves bare.


Oil spill in North Sea off Norway

A large spill of crude oil has been observed in the North Sea off Norway, Norwegian officials say.

It is the second largest spill in the country's history, the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) said in a statement.


Chile: Uncertain Energy Landscape

According to the CNE, the Chilean National Energy Commission, more than half of all electric energy consumed in that country in 2003 was generated by electrical power plants fed by natural gas. That situation only increased Chile’s dependence on Argentina, Chile’s only provider of hydrocarbons. There was no way to reverse that state of affairs, and things became even more troubling starting in 2004.


How Should We Be Thinking About Urbanization? A Freakonomics Quorum

Urbanization has been climbing steadily of late, with more than half of the world’s population now living in cities. Given the economic, sociological, political, and environmental ramifications, how should we be thinking about this? We gathered a quorum of smart thinkers on this subject — James Howard Kunstler, Edward Glaeser, Robert Bruegmann, Dolores Hayden, and Alan Berube — and posed to them the following questions...


DVD picks: ‘Crude Awakening’ and ‘Jesus Camp’

Are believers in peak oil a lunatic fringe? Not according to Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack’s compelling and disturbing Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash, which provides further evidence that we are depleting the world’s oil supplies at an unsustainable rate.


Hungers global hotspots: 11 December 2007

Countries where violence persists and populations live in fear. People in Hunger's Global Hotspots don't know what tomorrow will bring and they often have to rely on WFP for their next meal.


Thailand: Cost of living is set to soar

Consumers will be burdened with a higher cost of living next year as the domino effect of increasing demand for alternative fuel crops and skyrocketing oil prices push up food prices 10-30 per cent.


Questions And Concerns About The Ice

Another concern for some has been gasoline. Long lines formed around many gas pumps on Tuesday. QuikTrip says there is no supply shortage of gasoline, but you may still have to wait in line. Residents are advised to fill up before heading out of town.

The Oklahoma Turnpike Authority says fuel services are very limited on both the Turner and Will Rogers. Also diesel supplies are running short. Many stations are out. A QuikTrip spokesperson says that situation should be resolved soon.


A long, cold winter in store for the poor

Virtually everyone is shuddering this year at the high cost of home heating oil.

Worst off are low-income families, who face heating-oil prices anywhere from 10 to 22 percent higher than last winter with less assistance from the federally funded Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program. While the Bush administration falls down on the nation's moral responsibility to care for its poor and vulnerable, a few local souls are striving to make sure no families go without heat this winter.


South Africa: Blackouts killing business, owners complain

While Eskom says fewer rolling blackouts are expected on Wednesday, frustrated shopowners warn that even "one power failure is more than enough" and outages are "killing businesses".


Ottawa thwarts nuclear watchdog

Nuclear Safety Commission warns of possibility of serious accident at Chalk River, but PM says there's no safety issue in restarting reactor.


Dutch to deny palm subsidies until green levels met

The Netherlands warned on Monday it will not renew subsidies for palm-based biofuel until global producers meet its environmental requirements.


Malaysia May Revoke Biofuel Permits as Palm Oil Rises

Malaysia, the second-biggest palm oil producer, may revoke some licenses to produce biofuel from the commodity as the surging price of the raw material makes the fuel too expensive to make, a minister said.


Mideast missing link in global climate talks

It’s not that the Middle East produces the bulk of the oil being burnt globally. But oil demand there is growing at a faster clip than nearly every other region, while fuel efficiency in such cities as Tehran - where gasoline costs just 38 cents a gallon at the pump - simply hasn’t caught on.


This Earth Ain't Big Enough for the Both of Us

We're locked in an existential game of "chicken" with China, each nation daring the other not to take its foot off the gas pedal as we careen towards catastrophe. We don't want to change the way we live, and the Chinese want to live the way we do, too.


Pemex Daily Output May Drop by 1 Million Barrels in Nine Years

Petroleos Mexicanos, the biggest Latin American oil producer, may face a production drop of about 1 million barrels a day by 2016 if drilling equipment remains scarce and lawmakers fail to ease rules on the company.

Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said the government has a worst-case scenario of daily production at Pemex, the third- largest oil exporter to the U.S., falling to 2.1 million barrels in nine years from 3.1 million. In a best-case scenario, which includes law changes and stepped-up drilling in deepwater fields, Pemex may boost daily output to 3.4 million barrels, Kessel said in a Mexico City speech.


Offshore Riches

The world gets about one-third of its daily oil supply from offshore wells. Over the next decade, this share should grow even larger. Dr. Michael Smith, CEO of EnergyFiles Ltd., has published the most comprehensive research I’ve seen on the world oil supply situation.


Iran Oil Bourse to start work soon: official

Head of Oil Pension Fund Tuesday announced that oil and economy ministers were holding talks on the setup of Oil Bourse and the center would become operational in the near future.


Lebanese Hezbollah supporters protest electricity outage

Lebanon's ongoing power outages on Monday sparked protests in Beirut's southern suburbs, which is mostly inhabited by Hezbollah followers and where daily rolling power outages have reached up to 20 hours in some areas.

The protestors burned tyres and blocked roads leading to the capital's southern suburbs, calling on the leaders to stop 'the political bickering and help the people of Lebanon.'


China: Cities told to keep food, oil reserves

The central government Tuesday instructed 36 major cities to each maintain a minimum 10-day reserve of food and cooking oil supplies, as part of its measures to ensure market stability during the current period of rising food prices.


Oil-producers adamantly refuse calls for emission reduction - Kuwait

Members of OPEC and OAPEC are adamantly refusing all calls for reducing gas emission partly because of forecast impact on their national economies, said Kuwaiti Oil Undersecretary Abbas Naqi on Tuesday.


“Peak Oil” piques state worker interest

A group of state workers are hosting a presentation on “Peak Oil” tomorrow, focusing on the impact of rising gasoline costs on state services.


Exxon Plans Ocean LNG Terminal

Exxon Mobil says it wants to build a floating liquefied natural gas receiving terminal off the coast of New Jersey that would ease the supply of natural gas to that state and neighboring New York.


European Solar Power Keeps Spending

Demand for alternative energy is being driven by the bleak outlook for non-renewable fuel supplies such as oil. Fears of tightening supplies, peak oil, energy dependence and of limitless demand from emerging titans like China have all contributed to the search for more reliable alternatives.


Korea's Oil Spill Still Spreading

Five days into the disaster, the oil slick is still spreading. As of Tuesday, the spill had contaminated an estimated 24 miles (38km) of coastline, damaging several thousand hectares of aquatic farmland and a handful of scenic beaches. And as the damage spreads, so does the blame: Korean media and environmentalists now argue that the disaster could have been mitigated had the government responded more effectively.


UN chief demands breakthrough at climate talks

Talks on halting the juggernaut of climate change swung into top gear here Wednesday with a blunt warning from UN chief Ban Ki-moon that the world was counting on a breakthrough.


Gore: US blocking climate talks progress

Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore on Wednesday accused the U.S. of blocking progress at U.N. climate talks in Bali but said a breakthrough was possible in the final days of the conference.

"Some of the reports are worrisome, but I know from experience ... that when breakthroughs do occur, they usually happen in the last 48 hours," Gore told reporters in Sweden. "I hope there will be a change on the part of some countries, including most importantly my own, the United States."


Paying other nations to be green

The fight against global warming has given a new boost to a long-stymied environmental cause: saving the rain forests.

Under a scenario that has gained widespread support, developing countries would be paid billions of dollars a year to not raze their trees.


Delegates Weaken Deforestation Proposal as U.S. Balks

Climate-change treaty negotiators weakened a draft proposal to reward developing nations for preserving forests with potentially tradable emissions credits as the U.S. and Brazil balked at such measures.


'Crunch time' for climate change

For a moment this week, negotiators at this year's round of UN climate talks in Bali were able to pause and contemplate the treaty, which their forerunners' compiled in the 1997 Kyoto winter.


Expert links stockpiling to oil price

The Bush administration's decision to add more oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has added as much as 10 percent to the price of crude, an oil consultant told a Senate panel Tuesday.

"The rise in light, sweet crude prices to almost $100 a barrel in November came about because the U.S. Department of Energy has been removing a significant share of the daily volume of this type of crude from the market for storage in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve," said Philip Verleger of Aspen, Colo.-based PKVerleger.


Peak Oil, At Our Door

Whether one calls it a peak or a plateau, the result may be the same—with demand for oil rising (due to booming economies like China and India); available ‘giant fields’ dwindling; the value of the dollar falling; economic resource nationalism (in places like OPEC—member nations: Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Ecuador) growing; tensions rising between America and the world’s current largest oil producer, Russia and OPEC nations in no hurry to increase oil production in time to address heating oil supply concerns going into winter—the American economy is facing some hard times as soon as next year.


EIA: Oil to Average $85 a Barrel in 2008

Oil prices are expected to jump more than 18 percent per barrel in 2008 as speculators continue flocking to markets with tighter supplies and increased demand, the head of the Energy Department's forecasting arm told lawmakers Tuesday.


Russian navy distrupts access to North Sea oilfields

Norwegian oil and gas producer StatoilHydro STL.OL has suspended helicopter flights to some of its main fields in the North Sea due to Russian navy exercises in nearby international waters, the company said on Tuesday.

StatoilHydro, one of Europe's biggest oil groups, said the disruptions would not affect production levels at the fields, including the Troll field -- the biggest production area of offshore Norway.


ConocoPhillips reveals its big oilsands ambitions

ConocoPhillips said Tuesday it aims to produce one million barrels a day from Canada's oilsands - the most ambitious goal yet of any player in the unconventional deposits.


How risky is the new era of nuclear power?

Nearly two years ago, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave the operator of the Indian Point nuclear plant a year to add backup power supplies to the plant's emergency warning sirens. Entergy paid a $130,000 government fine in April — but still hasn't done the work at the plant 24 miles north of New York City.


Can the Planet Be Saved in Bali?

More so than many other developing nations, India views climate change through a political position that prioritizes the responsibility of the rich countries, and rejects mandatory cuts on countries just beginning to industrialize. Their argument is based on population size: Even years from now, when China and India will be emitting much of the world's carbon gas, the average Chinese or Indian will still be responsible for far less global-warming pollution than the average Westerner. The burden of restrictions, they argue, should therefore be shouldered first in the industrialized West.


Poor hit hardest by climate change

Surrounded by rising seas and short of water, the glitzy city state of Singapore has built one of the world's largest desalination plants and is paying Dutch experts tens of millions of dollars to devise ways to protect their island.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, is digging out from a cyclone that killed at least 3,200 and left millions homeless. The impoverished country wants to build up its coastlines to ward off the potentially devastating impacts of global warming, but has no money.


Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

A new Earth and Energy Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

Oil focus shifts eastward

"We have no plans at all to raise royalties," said Mr. Boyd, a grain farmer from Eston, a town in west-central Saskatchewan where there are large heavy oil operations. "We feel that Saskatchewan has tremendous advantages now. We think that Saskatchewan is the place to be in terms of energy development immediately and into the future."

It's true that Saskatchewan has less potential as an oil producer than Alberta. Saskatchewan produces 425,000 barrels a day, all conventional oil, while Alberta yields 1.9 million b/d, including conventional oil and oilsands.

But when only conventional oil production is taken into account, Saskatchewan is a close second to Alberta, which yields 540,000 b/d. That's one of the areas most penalized by Alberta's new royalty terms, making it vulnerable to a flight of capital.

Besides, Saskatchewan's industry-friendly message is sure to resonate in the Canadian oil community, where scores of leaders, including Murray Edwards, Canada's top oil entrepreneur, are from Saskatchewan.

While many upset with Mr. Stelmach's royalty strategy feel they have nowhere to go politically (both the provincial Liberals and NDP opposition parties in Alberta are advocating even more punitive measures against the sector), they are still making a political statement by moving capital to Saskatchewan. Already, land sales and drilling activity in the province are booming, bolstered by the discovery of the Bakken play and oilsands deposits, while they have collapsed in Alberta.

With saskatchewan now in the oil business big time as well as Alberta will Canada become the Saudi Arabia of the north?

Many north of the American border are worried about Canada's reputation at the Bali Conference.

http://www.avaaz.org/en/another_canadian_climate_crime/98.php?cl_tf_sign...

"International officials and experts have named Canada the worst country in the world on climate change as a result of PM Harper’s climate plan: wreck any chance of an international agreement being reached at the UN summit in Bali this week."

The only way Canada could ever hope to return to pre-Kyoto CO2 emission levels is to shut down the Athabaska Tar Sands. Given the 1.4 million barrels a day production in Alberta and Canada's role as the US biggest foreign supplier, fat chance of that happening.

Now Saskatchewan is thrown into the mix.

Canadians don't have to worry about their reputation. In this distorted world of oil dependency and continuous economic growth, governments of any stripe will prostitute themselves for the next quick fix. All I can say to concerned citizens, suck it up princess.

As the Concerned Citizens of Canada (CCC's) look to the North
and wonder how long the Polar Bear will be sharing the planet.

""So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

Per Leanan's BBC Article above.

Once again, the Tar Sands are negative EROEI.

Just like BioFuels.

CCC's will likely win the argument but the dilemma facing both PO and climate change is human nature and the current ecomonic system.

It's not easy being green. And no eye-on-the-next-election consumer-driven democratic government is going to risk the short term wrath of its electorate to hit people in the pocket books.

Fort McMurray, a town of 70,000 + people and growing, now generates 8% of Canada's GDP.

Yes, Tar Sands, like BioFuels, are negative EROEI. But at $85 - $99 /barrel oil, who cares? There are a lot of jobs and paycheques reliant on this bonanza.

Polar bears don't vote. They don't buy. They don't sell to the Americans. Three strikes you're out in this strangely ordered world.

And now ConocoPhillips is looking to extract another million barrels / day from this boreal treasure trove.

If I was looking for arctic ice cubes, I would get them now while supplies last. 2013 as a meltdown deadline is a long long way to go.

Yes. If that were the only deadline.

But it's just one of many "problems" exacerbating
the positive feedback loop.

A loop that takes us further away from the Holocene.

It used to be tough being a Dirty Hippy.

Maybe I should think about getting a pin striped suit
now to stay in Contrarian mode.

8D

"Here we go again…. too little, too late and not paying attention enough to the fact that what we are “measuring” took decades to reveal itself.

“That feedback is the key to why the models predict that the Arctic warming is going to be faster,” Zwally said. “It’s getting even worse than the models predicted.”

http://survivalacres.com/wordpress/

Pope Benedict XVI has launched a surprise attack on climate change prophets of doom, warning them that any solutions to global warming must be based on firm evidence and not on dubious ideology.

The leader of more than a billion Roman Catholics suggested that fears over man-made emissions melting the ice caps and causing a wave of unprecedented disasters were nothing more than scare-mongering.

The German-born Pontiff said that while some concerns may be valid it was vital that the international community based its policies on science rather than the dogma of the environmentalist movement.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_ar...

Good to see the Catholic Church hasn't changed through the centuries.

From Wikipedia:

By 1616 the attacks on Galileo had reached a head, and he went to Rome to try to persuade the Church authorities not to ban his ideas. In the end, Cardinal Bellarmine, acting on directives from the Inquisition, delivered him an order not to "hold or defend" the idea that the Earth moves and the Sun stands still at the centre.

I'm not one to defend the Pope, but I think that is a hatchet job by an anti-AGW paper. They are attempting to spin the pope as being a denier, although he has previously said acting on GW is a "moral obligation".

In fact, he may have been criticising deniers in his speech. This Pope is perhaps too circumspect and is easily misinterpreted, he had trouble before with "words taken out of context", and had to do a lot of smoothing over. He needs to get the hang of soundbites...

In all fairness to the pope, he's not saying anything that most of us haven't said ourselves: base findings on evidence, don't base evidence on 'a priori' conclusions.

"Prudence does not mean failing to accept responsibilities and postponing decisions; it means being committed to making joint decisions after pondering responsibly the road to be taken."

Some people get their knickers in a knot whenever the pope says anything. Chill folks.

It is helpful at times to be reminded that within any discussion, agendas will be at work, hyperbole will be used to defend entrenced positions, charlatans and self-learned experts will add their two cents worth, and the picture that emerges may be distorted and incomplete. Intelligence means shifting beyond shrill rhetoric and ideological opinion to grasp, even if half-blindly, what makes sense.

In the discussion on climate change, five significant questions frame the debate:
1) how is the world's climate changing? (the question "if" is mute since climate is always changing)
2) should we be worried about these changes?
3) are human beings a factor in this present change?
4) how big is the human factor in the change? and,
5) can anything be done about it?

Where I hold out little hope is in the last question. I agree with an assessment made elsewhere, we humans rank right up there with yeast when it comes to making smart choices.

Sometimes problems don't have solutions. They simply have to be endured.

5) can anything be done about it?

Where I hold out little hope is in the last question.

is that a "can" or a "will" you have little hope for? if there is a will then there is something we can do about it.

Just wait to see when Fuckabee gets elected and joins the club..

Actions speak louder than words...

Vatican agrees to a carbon offset scheme
By Elisabeth Rosenthal Published: September 3, 2007

TISZAKESZI, Hungary: This summer the cardinals at the Vatican accepted an unusual donation from a Hungarian start-up called Klimafa: The company said it would plant trees to restore an ancient forest on a denuded island by the Tizsa River to offset the Vatican's carbon emissions.

The young trees, on a 15-hectare, or 37-acre, tract of land that will be renamed the "Vatican Climate Forest" will in theory absorb as much carbon dioxide as the Vatican makes through its various activities in 2007: driving cars, heating offices, lighting St. Peters Basilica at night.

In so doing, the Vatican announced, it would become the world's first carbon-neutral state.

"As the Holy Father, Pope Benedict XVI, recently stated, the international community needs to respect and encourage a 'green culture,' " said Cardinal Paul Poupard, head of the Pontifical Council for Culture, who took part in a ceremony marking the event at the Vatican. "The Book of Genesis tell us of a beginning in which God placed man as guardian over the earth to make it fruitful."
The Vatican, which has recently made an effort to go green on its own by installing solar panels, sought to set an example by offsetting its carbon emissions.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/03/business/carbon.php

Fort McMurray, a town of 70,000 + people and growing, now generates 8% of Canada's GDP.

Which would be impressive, if it weren't laughably wrong:

  • Canada's GDP is $1.5T. 8% of that is $120B.
  • All oil sands operations, of which Ft. McMurray is only a part, produce about 1Mbbl/d, or about 400Mbbl per year.
  • $120B / 400Mbbl = $300/bbl for syncrude and bitumen. In reality, those sell for a discount (large discount for bitumen) to WTI, giving an average price of under $60/bbl over the course of 2007.

Accordingly, all oil sands, from production to refining, represent 1.5% of Canada's GDP, meaning Ft. McMurray's share is likely under 1%.

So you're off by about an order of magnitude. Is it that hard to fact-check before making wild claims?

Yikes! I stand corrected.

Though I think my point remains valid. Canadian political leadership is not likely to let climate change interfere with the Alberta oil boom. Too much at stake with oil security and economic prosperity.

And polar bears still don't vote, don't buy, and don't sell anything to the Americans.

What would be interesting is to simply take these numbers and figure Per Capita GDP for those 70,000 inhabitants(or more in the future) based on projected oil-sands production. Versus the rest of the Canadian population.

I heard Robert Redford, Nicole Kidman, and Donald Trump are buying up luxury real-estate in the area. Could be the next Boca Raton.

I think oil-sands production is slated for 3.5 million barrels in ten or twenty years.

In the short run, I haven't seen much upside to my tar sands pure-play stock purchses.

However, there is also the massive expenditures to expand oil sands production. Construction is also GDP.

But I doubt the 8% figure as well. Today. Wait till 2015 :-)

Alan

According to the latest Coca-Cola commercial, Polar Bears and Penguins get along marvelously. Since the Antarctic isn't melting down nearly so much, let's just relocate them there!

/sarcanol

Once again, the Tar Sands are negative EROEI.

Post some real credible scientific numbers that show that? I call BS. In addition read up on the THAI method on the oil sands, its gonna send the EROEI through the roof.

FYI, still calling for depression by Christmas?

Edited by Leanan to fix bad HTML. Dude, don't use HTML if you don't know how.

I agree on this one - if the tar sands were purely transformational they wouldn't be worked as they are. EROI stinks, to be sure, but it is positive.

And the jury is out on THAI - sounds really cool, but previous similar efforts have had trouble controlling the process. I'm hopeful, but we have to see long term proof that it works as well as has been advertised.

Postive, negative - If only the tar-sands equation could be reduced to a single scalar. What value is pure, fresh water?
If it weren't for all that stranded gas, it wouldn't be happening, would it?

antidoomer - it's Depression for a lot of people now.

Of course, people have fallen on hard times all throughout history in the best of times, but we both know Mcgonanow was referring to this kind of depression:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_%28economics%29

That's what I mean. That's what we're starting into. Just sit tight and wait, it will take serious SSRIs to keep doped up enough to deny it in the first quarter of 2008.

fleam, IMO you've touched on something important. I think it's possible that one reason the US and OECD countries stopped worrying about risk in the 2000's was the widespread availability of anti-depressant/anxiolytic drugs. IMO the drug companies were an important part of the "don't worry, be happy" machine.

If I'm right, once PO and economic contraction reduce the number of anti-depressants available to the investing class, a lotta people are gonna FREAK.

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

In 20 years I suspect historians (if we have enough civilization left to have historians then) will place the start of the Greater Depression in the first quarter of 2001. If you properly account for inflation, the US economy has only had one quarter (1Q04) with positive GDP growth, and growth that quarter was anemic at less than 0.5%. To follow the numbers go to http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data.

Now, it hasn't felt like a depression all that time, but I agree wtih Antidoomer we shouldn't just go on feelings. By Antidoomer's Wikipedia link, a recession is 2 negative quarters in a row. I think 27 negative quarters out of 28 counts technically as a depression.

Greenspan started lowering rates aggressively in 1Q01, because unlike the happy talk and fudged numbers of the US government & the financial industry, he knew what was happening and was trying to address it. Unfortunately for us & posterity, he chose to create a consumer debt-driven spending bubble that allowed us to spend like mad despite being in a depression. Wars don't get fought when the economy is bad, and Republicans do need to win elections.

Now the jig is up. The debt bubble has popped like a festering boil and consumer spending (70% of the economy) is going down the tubes. Creating more debt (the only solution the Fed has, really) cannot fix a debt crisis. It can only draw it out, while making the final reckoning even worse.

I think to be an antidoomer these days you really have to drink the happy-talk/fudged-numbers coolaid the government is passing out. In reality, it's worse than you think, and it's going to get worse even than that.

I'm not calling it the Greater Depression, I'm calling it the Great Decline. Slower, but more inexorable, and much longer, with no return to growth at the end.

To follow the numbers go to http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data.

Unfortunately, his numbers don't track at all well with reality.

Median wage - what the average guy gets paid - has gone up only about 10% in the last 15 years. If the shadowstats guy is right, Joe Average's purchasing power is only 60% of what it was in the early 90s, even accounting for the higher rate of borrowing.

If people lose 40% of their purchasing power, we'd expect them to spend a little less on necessities (food, housing, clothes, etc.) and much less on luxuries; instead, we find that the proportion spent on food has been slowly dropping in the US, and that overall spending by category is practically unchanged over the last 15 years.

Official government statistics are that Joe Average has seen his purchasing power increase by about 10%. Shadowstats would tell us that Joe's purchasing power has dropped by 40%, even with higher borrowing.

Joe's spending habits are consistent with slightly higher wealth.

Reality doesn't agree with the shadowstats guy, no matter how much he tells you what you want to hear.

Can you please site the stats/graphs you are referencing - it would be nice to know what you are basing your analysis on...

Can you please site the stats/graphs you are referencing - it would be nice to know what you are basing your analysis on...

Just his own page on inflation ("consumer price index"): http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=343

"Inflation, as reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is understated by roughly 7% per year."

"In particular, changes made in CPI methodology...have reduced current social security payments by roughly half from where they would have been otherwise."

i.e., he claims inflation is 100% higher than what's stated.

Median income information is from here via here.

I can't find the spending patterns link I used last time, but this one gives %ile data for the US, and is pretty similar - proportion spent on food declined from 17% in 1984 to 15% in 2003.

All I'm doing is taking his inflation number and applying it to the census data on income. If he says the CPI is twice what the government says it is. That means each dollar - after being adjusted for government levels of inflation - can buy only half of what the government says it can. That means the 10% increase in (government-inflation-adjusted) income the census reports, plus the 7% extra from lower rates of saving, would give the median earner only 60% of the purchasing power he had in ~1990.

Please, be my guest to check any of my numbers or references. All I'm doing is making explicit the claim his numbers implicitly make - that average Americans can afford barely more than half what they could 15-20 years ago.

Do you take into account the increase in personal debt? How much of today's spending power is based on getting into debt?

PDF warning
http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/75-001-XIE/comm/11.pdf

Do you take into account the increase in personal debt?

Yes - that's "the 7% extra from lower rates of saving" I referred to.

Basically, saving rates have fallen over that span from ~5% to ~-2%, which means people are spending ~7% more of their income than they were before. You can see the same thing in your link - US rates of income expenditure have risen from ~88% in the late 80s to ~95% now.