DrumBeat: December 11, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 11, 2007 - 10:02am
Topic: Miscellaneous
IEA exec says oil supply crunch looms
A prominent energy economist warned Tuesday that global oil markets are at risk of being under-supplied as national oil companies gain greater control of the world's petroleum supplies.Some 37.5 million barrels a day of additional oil-production capacity is needed by 2015, but only 25 million barrels a day are planned, International Energy Agency Chief Economist Fatih Birol said.
To narrow the gap, major oil producers, especially OPEC members, must ramp up production, Birol said, while major oil consumers, including the U.S., must make policy changes to ease demand.
Tales of oil industry's influence in Alaska
In grainy, secretly recorded hotel-room videotapes, executives with Alaska's biggest oil-services company plot ways to craft an industry-friendly version of a pending oil-tax rewrite, brag about how they "own" key politicians and hand out wads of cash to lawmakers, who swear their fealty."Never forget who takes you to the dance," says former House Speaker Pete Kott, pointing to VECO Corp. Chairman and heavyweight Republican patron Bill Allen, in one of the tapes. "I had to cheat, steal, beg, borrow, and lie."
Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza
Saskatchewan could be sitting on 25 billion to 100 billion barrels of sweet, light crude oil in the Bakken formation in the southeast part of the province, according to industry and government estimates.
Iran mulls ending gasoline rationing
Iran's deputy oil minister says the government plans to end the gasoline rationing scheme by end of the next Iranian year, March 2009.Probably by end of the next Iranian year (March 2009), fuel rationing will end, Mohammad-Reza Nematzadeh said, adding, "We are trying to control consumption on the one hand and increase production on the other."
Algeria says bombs won't deter serious investors
Twin car bombs in Algiers won't deter investors with serious plans in oil- and gas-exporting Algeria, Interior Minister Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni said.
Shell sets up lab in Hawaii to research algae as biofuel
Royal Dutch Shell PLC said Tuesday it will build a facility in Hawaii to grow and test algae for its potential as a biofuel.
Ice storm trips power, paralyzes key U.S. oil hub
A deadly ice storm in the U.S. heartland triggered power outages that paralyzed parts of the most important U.S. oil hub, threatening supplies to the region's oil refineries.The storm knocked out power to more than 800,000 in the U.S. Central plains and forced Enbridge to shut its 16.7 million barrel oil terminal at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point of the New York Mercantile Exchange crude contract.
"Until we get power we cannot move the oil. There is some damage to our own distribution infrastructure, but right now it mainly depends on how quickly Oklahoma Gas and Electric can restore power to the area," said Enbridge spokesman Larry Springer.
Outside View: Russian oil, gas drying up?
Russia must increase investment in oil and gas exploration and production, and save its energy resources, say German scientists."At the current level of production, (Russia's) reserves will have been used up in around 22 years," says a report by the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) released Dec. 4.
China Nov crude oil imports up 1 pct on yr
China's crude oil imports rose 1 percent in November from a year earlier to 13.61 million tonnes, preliminary government data showed on Tuesday, as the country suffered through a serious domestic fuel shortage.
South Africa: Fuel shortage puts Eskom under pressure
Amid fears of a diesel shortage in the Western Cape this festive season, Eskom says a liquid fuel shortage is "aggravating a very serious situation" of rolling blackouts.
Fuel Shortage and Winter Cold Bite Nepal
More than a month after the government raised gasoline prices here to $4.25 per gallon in an attempt to normalize supply, there are still long lines at the pumps, which open briefly when a tanker arrives, then close again as soon as the fuel is sold. Day-long waits are common; some drivers queue up overnight, sleeping in their vehicles.
Egg prices break new ground: Price of a dozen triples in a year
“The cost of feed, transportation and packaging have all gone up. Chickens eat corn and soy, and both are being used to make ethanol fuel. Styrofoam packaging is a petroleum derivative. Transportation to bring it to the store uses more petroleum.”
GM starts new design shop for Volt
GM has taken another step toward bringing its Volt plug-in electric car to market by opening a new studio where work is being done exclusively on its next generation of electric vehicles.
Most of us behave as if our globe's tank still has plenty of gas as well, ignoring the possibility that it could ever run out. In fact, a tiny fringe actually rejects the conventional view that our oil was formed in finite supply over millions of years by the accumulation and compression of numberless trillions of microscopic organisms.Proponents of this view believe, instead, that our petroleum supply is practically infinite, that crude-oil deposits are somehow regularly replenished from sources deep within the earth.
We easily see through a bizarre wish-fulfillment fantasy like this one, but we ignore just as easily the doomsayers who argue that we're within a few years, one way or the other, of the peak of worldwide oil production. From here on out, they say, cheap and easily accessible oil will be a thing of the past. The corollary to this grim predicament is that we're going to be increasingly inclined to fight over what's left.
Pakistan: Crisis as oil stocks hit rock bottom
Pakistan’s oil reserves have plummeted to the lowest-ever level in the country’s history and the stocks of major oil products — kerosene and diesel — are sufficient for six days only.Under the standard operating procedures (SOPs), the government and its companies are required to maintain a minimum of 21-day stocks of every product at all times to cope with any eventuality. The SOPs are defined in the ‘Blue Book’ meant for strategic government organisations to handle crises.
India: State heading for energy crisis
'Dark age' looms large over Orissa in the coming years even as the Government tomtoms its achievements in energy sufficiency.A huge gap between supply and demand stares at the State.
UK: Diesel Shortage As Weather Delays Fuel
Gale force winds and rough seas have meant a tanker carrying a cargo load of diesel and petrol has been unable to dock at the Plymouth fuel depot and distribute fuel to garages in Torquay, say petrol station bosses.The Esso Garage, Avenue Road, Torquay has been left without diesel after its delivery from the depot was disrupted by gale force winds and downpours of rain over the weekend.
Eyeing Rising Oil Prices, US Gas Cos Seek Black Gold
EOG Resources Inc.'s Web site still says: "When you think natural gas, think EOG."But these days, the Houston independent is steering an increasing amount of its funds away from gas drilling and toward an even more valuable resource in today's commodity markets: oil.
Texas-size oil refinery in works
In the U.S., Shell and Saudi Aramco have a strategy of building a high-tech refinery that can handle the worst – and cheapest – types of crude oil. Doing so keeps costs low and profit margins as wide as possible.
$18bn investment is needed for pipelines
The Middle East will need to invest nearly $18 billion for the construction of pipelines and compression or pumping stations over the next five years.
Surmont oil sands project begins commercial production
After 10 years, ConocoPhillips Co. and Total SA's vast Surmont oil sands venture has begun commercial production.ConocoPhillips, the third-largest energy company in the United States, and France's Total are co-owners of the Surmont project, located about 60 kilometres southeast of Fort McMurray in Alberta's oil sands. The Surmont project began as a pilot in 1997. In June, 2003, the companies launched commercial development using an energy-intensive process called steam-assisted gravity drainage.
More than 200 people showed up at Beresford last night to learn more about a proposed $10 billion oil refinery north of Elk Point.Employees and consultants from Hyperion Energy of Dallas held the first of 3 meetings to answer questions about their plans for the facility.
Oil & Gas Industry Leaders, Investment Opportunities
Mexico’s national oil company (Pemex) has only nine years of proven oil reserves at current production rates, and the company is hoping to find new deposits in deeper waters of the Gulf to compensate for declining output at its traditional areas. Pemex plans to begin producing oil at deep water projects in 2014.
PMI offers county incentives to reduce pipeline impact
A controversial pipeline proposed to be built in the eastern part of the county to transport fuel to Mexico may not have the same impact on the community if Commissioners Court agrees to accept concessions offered by the company.The 10-inch line, to be installed by PMI Holdings North America Inc., would carry gasoline across about 14 miles of the county, in the same vicinity as the Longhorn Pipeline, to provide gasoline to Mexico's nationalized Pemex oil company.
Real reasons OPEC snubbed production increase
The non increment of production quota by the members of the Organisation Petroleum Exporting countries OPEC to ease the price of crude oil, which interestingly has been on the high side for sometime now, experts say, "do not come as surprise". This, according to keen observers of the activities of the world’s apex oil regulatory body, is because the group has always insisted that there was enough crude oil in the market and that, it was not a lack of enough volume of the commodity is creating the continued upward swing of oil prices.
Mexico senators begin Pemex reform talks
Mexican senators began hammering out a modest reform of the struggling energy sector on Monday, possibly loosening the barriers to private-sector participation.
Hybrids responsible choice but still a stopgap in energy crisis
Driving a hybrid is merely stopgap. Its technology is dated — the first hybrid was actually built in 1901 — and likely to be replaced with something better. I predict that when I’m ready to get rid of it — I usually hang onto a car for seven or eight years — no one will even want to buy it because it burns too much gasoline. By then, CNGs (compressed natural gas), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and who knows what other new techno-wonder will be standard. By then, people will be using air and water to power their automobiles. Anyway, that’s what I hope.
What your CEO drives says a lot about the dude
A car can say a lot about the person in the corner office. "Of all the products in the world, cars are the most reliable representation of an individual's personality," says Golden Gate University psychology chair Kit Yarrow.What CEOs drive offers a look into their personal engine blocks. Some drive hybrids to be green. Others favor older cars to show they can milk the most from available resources. Then, there are those who want expensive and fast because they're at the top and won't settle for less.
Widespread anxiety about the damaging effects of burning fossil fuels, coupled with a genuine fear that oil and gas will become scarce before the century ends are fueling a renewed interest in renewable energy and, in particular, solar power solutions.
Cameco unlikely to meet 2011 Cigar Lake target
Cameco jumped a hurdle last week when it got a two-year permit extension for overhaul of its flooded Cigar Lake uranium mine in Canada, but analysts say the miner's forecasts of output by 2011 are too optimistic.With the mine expected one day to supply over 10 percent of the world's mined uranium, any further delays starting production would put upward pressure on uranium spot prices that have already hit a record high earlier this year.
Thunder, Hail, Fire: What Does Climate Change Mean for the U.S.?
The regional effects range from more wildfires in the west to stronger storms in the east.
Bali needs to know - can China go green?
According to several international studies in recent months, China's emissions have not only surged past the U.S. level, but also are growing at a rate that far outstrips wealthy nations' capacity to decrease theirs. Even if China met its own targets to reduce energy intensity (consumption per unit of economic output), its emissions would increase by about 2.5 billion metric tons over the next five years, the data show. This total is far larger than the 1.1 billion tons in reductions imposed by the Kyoto Protocol on developed nations, including the United States, which has since withdrawn from the treaty.
This UN conference is crucial because time is rapidly running out to prevent global warming from reaching dangerous levels that could redraw the face of the planet and devastate our economies in the coming decades.
U.S. Opposes 25-40 Percent Cuts in Climate Proposal
The Bush administration, which has long rejected mandatory limits on global warming pollution, opposes a United Nations draft proposal calling on developed countries to make binding emissions cuts of 25-40 percent by 2020.``Our principal difficulty with having any numbers in the text to begin with is that it might prejudge outcomes,'' senior U.S. climate negotiator Harlan Watson said today at a news conference on the Indonesian island of Bali, where almost 200 countries are gathered to begin talks for a new climate accord.
The Oil Industry's Future: An Illusory Platform
It felt like I'd just walked onto the set of the sequel to Jurassic Park. There was an industry dinosaur who I'd thought was gone for good.But no. Former ExxonMobil CEO Lee Raymond, and his colleagues at the National Petroleum Council, an industry committee that advises the Secretary of Energy on key issues of concern, released "Hard Truths: Facing the Hard Truths about Energy" (a report about the future of the oil and gas industry) Monday at the American Enterprise Institute."
Spend on public transport, not an M74 ext
Your description of the problems with the Kingston Bridge is a perfect example. Built to cope with 20,000 vehicles daily and now carrying nine times that number, it's a clear demonstration that congestion isn't a function of "not enough road", but one of "too much traffic". Even without the new imperatives of climate change and peak oil, how long can this go on? Relentless increases in road traffic will leave this latest project as worthless as every previous predict-and-provide fallacy.
Two critical (but tentative) green victories hang in the balance
The eyes of the world are now on the US Senate. Our oil-endangered species anxiously awaits even a tiny American step toward fighting global warming and saving the planetary environment.But the battered and embattled Energy Bill now being held hostage by the Republican neo-con minority hides two huge victories tentatively won by the No Nukes/safe energy movement. If those victories hold, the odds on human survival could take a quiet but huge leap forward.
Dennis Kucinich: Winning a losing campaign
Part of the secret to Kucinich's appeal is that he is remarkably accepting. He attracts and takes seriously a lot of people who, like Kucinich himself, hold "strange" ideas and hold them passionately. People who are intense, a little off-kilter, who lean in to talk to you and won't stop talking about whatever it is that makes them angry. People who twitch and shift and kind of STARE when they ask questions about peak oil, 9/11 conspiracy theories or veganism. These people don't scare Kucinich. He loves them.
Green gifts: 'Oh, you shouldn't have — really!'
So you got a goat for Christmas.Well, not you specifically, but a family in an African village got a goat, thanks to a donation made in your name by your do-gooder sister as a holiday gift to you. You, however, would have been happier with a luxury goatskin handbag.
Still, you feel guilty about being disappointed, and what about those hapless African villagers? So you smile and trill, "Wonderful!" Inside, you're peeved, on the way to seething.
Dems cite manipulation in climate report
The White House has systematically tried to manipulate climate change science and minimize the dangers of global warming, asserts a Democratic congressional report issued after a 16-month investigation...."The Bush administration has engaged in a systematic effort to manipulate climate change science and mislead policymakers and the public about the dangers of global warming," the report concludes.
Parents should pay climate change tax on extra kids: expert
Parents who have more than two children should be charged a lifelong climate change tax to offset the effect of their extra greenhouse gas emissions, an Australian medical expert has proposed.They should pay 5,000 dollars (4,400 US) a head for each extra child and up to 800 dollars every year thereafter, according to the plan published in the Medical Journal of Australia.
In contrast, contraceptives and sterilisation procedures would be eligible for carbon credits, suggested Professor Barry Walters at the King Edward Memorial Hospital in Perth.
At Bali climate change meeting, a hard look at Kyoto
Efforts to start two years of talks aimed at crafting a new global pact on climate change enter their most intense phase this week. Ministers from more than 180 countries arrive Wednesday to give final shape to a framework for the talks, which could begin as early as next June.But even as they look to the future, ministers also will be dealing with the present – giving a final burnish to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol before turning it loose next year. The protocol's first – and perhaps only – enforcement period begins Jan. 1 and runs through 2012.
Climate Change's Health Effects May Surprise, WHO's Chan Says
Global climate change may have unexpected consequences on human health, including the spread of diseases such as malaria in the U.S., said Margaret Chan, director-general of the World Health Organization.
Canada could "derail" climate talks: activists
A leaked government document suggests Canada could derail talks to reach a post-Kyoto agreement at the UN conference in Bali, Indonesia, with a set of priorities that go against Kyoto principles, climate activists said Saturday.
Darfur rebel group claims it attacked Chinese-run oil field
A Darfur rebel group claimed it attacked an Chinese-run oil field in central Sudan on Tuesday forcing more than 1,000 soldiers to flee the area.Khalil Ibrahim, the powerful leader of the Darfur's rebel group the Justice and Equality Movement, said rebels attacked the oil field early Tuesday and forced three Sudanese army battalions, which were protecting the oil fields, to flee. The attack, which could not immediately be independently confirmed, was the latest attempt by the rebel group to broaden the battle beyond the western Darfur region.
Bodman: 'Clear And Present Challenge' To Meet US Fuel Demand
U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, addressing a crowd at Motiva Enterprises LLC's Port Arthur refinery, said that oil refiners must expand their capacity to meet rising demand, which coupled with increased prices, has placed an "indirect" tax on families.He said that companies must respond to a "new energy reality that sees world demand increasing substantially in the next two decades."
This demand growth, Bodman said, will be a "clear and present challenge to America's facilities."
Explosion, fire injures 3 workers at Philly refinery
The Fire Marshal's office says a welding torch appears to have touched off an explosion and fire that injured three people at a Sunoco oil refinery in South Philadelphia.
Norway says not mulling "green" cuts to oil output
Norway's leftist finance minister said the government was not considering cutting oil production for environmental concerns, although she wanted a debate on how quickly more acreage should be opened up for exploration after 2009.
Greenpeace is wrong — we must consider nuclear power
In its recently issued final report for 2007, the IPCC makes a number of unambiguous references to the fact that nuclear energy is an important tool to help bring about a reduction in fossil fuel consumption. Greenpeace has already made it clear that it disagrees. How credible is it for activists to use the IPCC scientists' recommendations to fuel apocalyptic fund-raising campaigns on climate change and then to dismiss the recommendations from the same scientists on what we should do to solve it?
Japan Approves Oil Relief Plan, Subsidizes Kerosene
The Cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda approved a plan to subsidize heating oil for people on low incomes or who live in colder areas, part of a package of proposed relief measures to cope with high oil prices."We must alleviate the burden of petroleum prices on Japan's economy," Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said. The Cabinet will meet again by the end of the year to work out specifics of the subsidies, she said.
Big Oil lets sun set on renewables
Shell, the oil company that recently trumpeted its commitment to a low carbon future by signing a pre-Bali conference communique, has quietly sold off most of its solar business.The move, taken with rival BP's decision last week to invest in the world's dirtiest oil production in Canada's tar sands, indicates that Big Oil might be giving up its flirtation with renewables and going back to its roots.
Ecuador to drill park unless world pays
Ecuador will open bidding for a major oil project in a jungle nature reserve in June if the poor Andean country does not receive international funding to abandon the proposal, the oil minister said Monday.
Colorado: Beyond the Boom - a special report
Colorado is on the front end of what may prove the greatest natural resource boom in its history, with more than 33,000 oil and gas wells pumping and tens of thousands more on the drawing board. It is a multi-billion dollar energy bonanza with potentially enormous social and environmental consequences for the state.In Beyond the Boom, four days of special reports beginning Dec. 10, the Rocky Mountain News will examine whether Colorado is ready to deal with the phenomenon that could shape its future for decades to come.
'The biggest environmental crime in history'
BP, the British oil giant that pledged to move "Beyond Petroleum" by finding cleaner ways to produce fossil fuels, is being accused of abandoning its "green sheen" by investing nearly £1.5bn to extract oil from the Canadian wilderness using methods which environmentalists say are part of the "biggest global warming crime" in history.
George Monbiot: The real answer to climate change is to leave fossil fuels in the ground
Ladies and gentlemen, I have the answer! Incredible as it might seem, I have stumbled across the single technology which will save us from runaway climate change! From the goodness of my heart, I offer it to you for free. No patents, no small print, no hidden clauses. Already this technology, a radical new kind of carbon capture and storage, is causing a stir among scientists. It is cheap, it is efficient and it can be deployed straight away. It is called ... leaving fossil fuels in the ground.
Climate change goal 'unreachable'
In public, climate scientists and European politicians are generally optimistic that rising carbon dioxide levels and temperatures can be curbed.In private, some are less sanguine; but there has been a widespread unwritten code of optimism to avoid being accused of scaremongering or creating despair.



A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.
Foreclosure Avoidance
A Society that is Psychologically Bent On Avoiding the Brutal Facts
If memory serves, the ratio of total public and private debt to GDP for the US was around 150% in the late Twenties, doubling to about 290% in the Thirties, as GDP collapsed.
Recently, the ratio was over 300%.
A question I asked last year was the following. What percentage of GDP in the Roaring Twenties was related to non-discretionary spending?
In other words, if we look at the ratio of total debt to GDP, not only are we now far worse off in total terms than in 1929, our debt relative to non-discretionary GDP is probably far greater.
I've used Thom Hartmann's' description of a high tech company that he consulted for. They had the appearance of enormous economic activity--until they ran out of venture capital funding and closed their doors without ever delivering a real product.
All of this suggests an absolutely ferocious collapse in discretionary spending in the US.
...and consider that upto 70% of the American Economy is driven by the US consumer...
Has it started, the shopping malls over here in the UK seem packed with people 'loading up their credit cards'?
I think 2008 could be a very very bad year. Note StuartSs article on how a recession may mask PO by curtailing demand just as we approach peak...
Nick.
I don't know about the other old farts who post on TOD but the Depression impacted my life tremendously even though I was born toward the end of it. My dad's father lost his business and went from lower upper class to upper poor while my mom's parents have several families living in their house.
I looked at all of this and swore I would do my best to insulate myself from the vagaries of the economy so far as possible. This eventually included giving up my career in the chemical industry and millions in potential income to move to the boondocks where I could produce most of my food if necessary and provide my own heat and power. And, naturally, with no debt.
It is saddening that so many people today do not have the historical perspective to understand how things can collapse.
Todd
I've put it this way: produce or perish. We are going to be forced to once again become a nation of producers.
http://mentatt.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
“The End of Cheap Food” Cover Headline of Economist Magazine, December 10, 2007
My neighbor had her lawn people out earlier this week, spraying her lush green St Augustine with a combo herbacide/feed. (Of course some of it drifts toward my otherwise organic garden.) Yup, with all we know about what's going on in the world, making sure that grass stays looking good strikes me as one of the best possible uses of my time and money.
The same issue places much of the blame for the high increases in food prices on the devotion of corn to ethanol. Food prices have jumped 75% in real terms since 2005. "This year biofuels will take up a third of America's (record) maize harvest".
Yes, perhaps we need to produce or perish. But let us not lose site of what is driving these record food prices. Why people are not protesting in the streets is a mystery to me. Have they not noticed?
If we are going to be forced to be a nation of producers, let it not be because of this misguided policy on encouraging biofuels, especially corn based ethanol.
I suspect the reason is the same as for why $3+ gasoline has not caused the meltdown some expected. Over the last three to four decades the portion of our income that we spent on both gasoline and food has decreased. So, while we are being forced to spend more on these items, the impact is not what it would have been in the past. We are likely shifting our spending from non-essentials into these areas without feeling it as excessive pain (especially as we can get those low low prices at Walmart).
through the Chinese subsidies in fuel and labor.
Talking of food (from the FT, so subscription may be required):
Concerns over food inflation as harvests fail
My local chain grocery store is starting to sell more fruit with a "Grown in Missouri" label...
Martha Stewart milking a goat.. now that's something I would like to see!
Jeff,
The cost of oil went from $12 to around $90 dollars. By the line of reasoning above the cost of food should have gone up by at least a factor of 8. Well, it didn't.
We can afford a doubling of our fuel costs because they are a small enough percentage of total costs. We'll be poorer after that doubling, but not totally wiped out.
The US economy is doing $13 trillion a year. At $100 per barrel and 21 million barrels a day that would count up to $767 billion. Double that and we are at about $1.5 trillion. Still a much smaller number than $13 trillion. But at $200 per barrel lots of ways to reduce oil usage become cost effective. So we will buy less oil at $200 per barrel and even less at $300 per barrel.
Your simple analysis omits one fact. In 1973 the US imported only 25% of its oil consumed. Today that fraction is 2/3 or 65% (when counting refined petroleum products). So if oil were at $200 per barrel and US still using 21m per day, the annual capital outflow would be $1 trillion per year for oil energy alone. Add in consumer goods of around $500 billion and you get a drain on capital that is not sustainable.
The simple fact is that we cannot afford $200/barrel for very long as the oil dollars leaving the country cause a further decline in $$ value and result in foreign countries and companies owning our corporations, housing stock and eventually our land. Food price increase due to high cost of imported oil is just the tip of the iceberg for economic problems
We'd have to sell more stuff if we needed to spend more on oil. That size of flow of money into the US would give oil producers a lot of money to buy goods and services that we produce. They'd spend that money.
right, those ayerabs need lots of greezy burgers and as the price of oil goes to $ 200, $300 .......they will consume even more, just to keep the balance of payments in line.
This petrodollar recycling has enabled a lot of oil dollars to flow right back to where they came from in an endless upward spiral.
The real crunch for the US could come when this cosy system -setup since the war- of the dollar being the defacto reserve currency begins to falter and we may be seing serious cracks now. Already Venezula, Iran, Russia and others are talking of oil priced in baskets of currencies, Roubles, etc. As they increasingly control the supply over the next decade a new oil purchase currency could emerge as an alternative (The Arabs originally wanted to be paid in Gold but where convinced to take paper).
At this point the US really could find itself in a difficult position as then no one would need to buy its currency in order to purchase oil. As a result Interest rates would have to rise significantly in order to bolster the currency and attract foreign cash inflows. There would be little room for the type of manouvre that Greenspan and Bernanke pulled off without toasting the dollar and the US Economy.
Nick.
Sure, it changes your whole outlook on life.
My family came out of WW2 dirt poor, basically with the clothes on our back. I was a kid then, but I remember.
What people fail to understand is that if everything is taken away from everyone, in a free system the old ranks are reestablished in a relatively short time.
I was raised by grandparents who lived thru it.Grandmother who lost here first child to starvation in a soddy in Oklahoma while her husband tried to find work on the railroad
I would say they have colored my thinking a bit.I ALWAYS have 6-12 months food,which has served me well in the past,when layoffs were a normal part of my workyear,due to Paul Volker.
That things can collapse....and DO
The Depression started before 1929.
"This decade has featured record debt levels, extreme income inequality not seen since 1928 -- according to the New York Times [registration required] in 2005 the top 1% (over $348,000 in income) took home 21.8% -- their largest share of national income since 1928, and a negative savings rate of -0.7% -- last seen in 1933 -- the depths of the Great Depression."
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/29/income-inequality-near-1928-rec...
And only ended with Pearl Harbor.
"Depression conditions of 1930 began to affect the county by March of 1930."
Pink Slips, Christmas Parties and Burning Warehouses-
typical Depreesion entering fare.
"They thought we could ape Japan and have a weak currency AND a powerful military empire at the same time. This is, of course, impossible. Rome, Spain, China and England all tried that in the past 3,000 years and the results are always the same: bankruptcy and collapse.
The most irritating thing about the news media and online commentary has been the flood of nit-picking. It is as if the USA were reading our death sentence and then feeling triumph because we detect a grammatical error. The many messages appearing in front of our eyes via the news stream can't be ignored but the job of connecting all these things, the environment, diplomacy, economics and wars, is often not attempted. The need to keep a sense of glory and power is so great, all other information is ignored to our collective peril."
http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/2007/12/elaine-meine...
Nonsense! The events that caused the Great Depression started well before 1929 but not the depression itself. The events that will cause TEOAWKI are happening right now, but the but not the collapse itself. Causal events are not the same thing as the actual event itself.
Ron Patterson
I remember, as a kid, going out with the family and wandering the river banks in Scotland picking blackberries for jam, and preserves. And we were not alone, you could see families out almost every weekend during the season.
This summer when I went back, the bushes were laden, and not a picker in sight. (Well perhaps one - and I still had to scrub my hands to hide the stains).
In 1992, on our first trip to the UK, we made the trip to Haworth, in Yorkshire (my wife is a Bronte fan). We made the pilgrimage up to the ruins of an old farmhouse that was supposed to be the inspiration for Wuthering Heights. On the way down, we stopped at the "Bronte Waterfall" and had a picnic, finished off with wild blueberries.
http://www.haworth.yorks.com/
As a student of The Derpression, I can say that its first victims were in the farming sector, which started its slide into depression in 1920-21, and was very immesierated by 1929. A combination of weather and depressed prices crippled most farmers who used credit to expand their production to take advantage of very high prices caused by WW1 (Europe's farms essentially shutdown).
A second point is the new electric appliance based consumer age could only count on about 1/4 of the populace as buyers for its new products; and those folks that bought the new-fangled radios, toasters, etc., only bought one (and those products were built to last--planned obsolescence hadn't been put into practice yet) because our modern "Buy, Buy, Buy" mantra and its plastic cash hadn't become ingrained. And people were still prudent with their money--They saved it in anticipation of the hard times that always come, which slows down the velocity of money.
Remember, there were no "automatic stabilizers" operating in the economy then--unemployment and disability insurance, social security and medicare (devices the neoliberalcons have tried very hard to destroy). So before 1929, the US economy was already in a world of hurt, unless one was a member of the Leisure Class engaged in Conspicuous Consumption (Great book, by the way--Theory of the Leisure Class by Veblen). Perhaps the best small book to document this is "The Economic History of the United States, Volume VIII: Prosperity Decade, From War to Depression 1917-1929" by George Soule (1947)[1964]. When we talk of the great discontent in agraria, it must be recalled that by FRR's innauguration in 1933 those folks were in many cases at the end of thier ropes. We talked about this just last night, and I asked the question: Imagine if the Joads (Grapes of Wrath) had modern firearms (there's currently more than one firearm per person in the USA, not counting military weapons)?
am i hearing Helicopter?
I am hearing True American Speech here, it's really pronounced "derpression" here you know. Also, the US has no use for professionals, it's "perfessionals" and has been for quite some time.
Damn! I even proof read the body. At least I capitalize I and the first word of a sentence.
Hi Fleam. The book title you wanted is The Jungle.
it was a joke about somebody not the spelling.
karkof, there was another Black Swan in the run-up to the second Great Depression ( the first Great Depression was in the 1890's, as I recall, and was called 'The Great Depression' at the time). That would be the Hurricane of 1926, which caused a crash in the Florida real estate bubble (perhaps I should say "the first Florida real estate bubble : )
History may or may not repeat, but it sure as hell rhymes.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
There was a farm sector depression before 1929, but I guess it wasn't considered significant. That the farm sector crisis was related to overproduction and environmental factors certainly is worth considering today. Unlike that time, though, now food is getting expensive.
And even today, the farm sector is not considered very important outside of farming communities.
I saw a report sometime back that modeled the loss of productivity due to climate change in the U.S. I am drawing from recollection but it was something like 20% drop in productivity and higher variance. Now what did the economists think of that?
No big deal, because the ag. sector is only ca. 5% of our GDP, a loss of 20% there means only a 1% decline in GDP.
I believe this attitude prevails today among the elite economists who even care about the environment. Breathtaking ignorance about what butters their bread.