DrumBeat: January 1, 2008


Why the era of cheap food is over

Two major trends have been pushing prices up faster than they have risen for more than 30 years. One is that increasingly prosperous consumers in India and China are not only eating more food but eating more meat. Animals have to be fed (grains, usually) before they are butchered. The other is that more and more crops – from corn to palm nuts – are being used to make biofuels instead of feeding people.

At the same time, the world is drawing down its stockpiles of cereal and dairy products, which makes markets nervous and prices volatile.

The result, says Joachim von Braun, who heads the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington, is that "the world food system is in trouble. The situation has not been this much of a concern for 15 years."

Cost of crude oil ends year 57 percent higher

Oil prices ended the year near $96 a barrel, or 57 percent higher than where they began, and analysts expect rising demand and geopolitical instability to keep upward pressure on energy costs early in 2008.

“There’s a good chance this week that we’ll see some record highs,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill., said.


UK: Decrease in traffic due to fuel prices, says expert

AN UNEXPECTED fall in road traffic across Northern Ireland may have been because of high fuel prices, a road expert has said.

Figures released in the Assembly show that traffic volumes on all classes of road fell in 2006 — following years where the trend had been inexorably upwards.


UK: Bus fares go up

Bus passengers are facing a fares increase to rival the price rises on train services.

First, the biggest operator of bus services in the Bradford district, is putting up some fares by as much as 14 per cent from Sunday.

The company says the increases are because of rising fuel costs.


NTUC chief urges Singaporeans to be prepared to live with higher fuel, food prices

"There's no running away from higher energy costs, higher food prices because this is a global phenomenon. But what we can do in Singapore is to make sure our workers are able cope with this better that any other workers in any other countries."


Turning the tide against oil pipeline vandals

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) late last week raised an alarm that very powerful Nigerians are behind the persistent fuel pipeline fires in the country.


Arab bourses score impressive gains in 2007

Arab stock markets recorded major gains in 2007, above all thanks to soaring oil prices that secured huge surplus petrodollars for oil-rich Arab countries, analysts said Tuesday.


Israeli nanotech provides green electricity

Orionsolar's nanotechnology based solar power cells could have a big impact - on energy conservation, global warming, and your home electric bill. In fact, the company's innovative developments in the area of solar technology will change not only the way you and I get our electrical power, according to Breen; but also bring the magic of electricity to people who, until now, have never had the opportunity to turn the lights on in their own homes.


‘Grease cars’ — the answer to high gas prices?

Move over gas-guzzlers. Make way for grease cars, the latest do-it-yourself auto trend for eco-conscious drivers.


British wildlife in steep decline as man-made activities take their toll

Several of Britain's best-known animal species, ranging from the hedgehog to the harbour seal, are now suffering declines that require serious conservation action, according to a comprehensive report on the status of British mammals.


Bad microbes on the move

SINCE the 1950s, when scientists first identified the mosquito-borne tropical disease known as chikungunya, its reach has been limited to countries near the Indian Ocean. But in August, chikungunya broke out in Italy. Now World Health Organization officials are calling it the first example of a tropical disease, aided by global warming, causing an epidemic in a developed European country. The outbreak should spur efforts both to curb greenhouse gases and to prepare public health defenses against infections spread by climate change.


In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.


Iran reduces gas exports to Turkey after Turkmen cut

Iran has reduced natural gas exports to Turkey after Turkmenistan halted supplies to Iran, an Iranian energy official said on Tuesday, adding he expected Turkmen deliveries to be restored by the end of the week. An Iranian news agency, Fars, said Iran had slashed its daily sales to Turkey by around 75 percent to 4-5 million cubic metres due to Turkmenistan's move and the cold winter weather.


Natural gas drilling expected to keep falling in '08, oilsands activity to grow

Natural gas producers and drillers, whose field activity plummeted this year probably won't be seeing much relief in 2008, while action in the oilsands is expected to intensify thanks to record-high crude oil prices.


Kenya: Fuel and food shortages loom as shops remain closed

Kenyans could be in for tough times if the standoff over the presidential election results is not resolved soon as food and fuel shortages begin to bite.

Yesterday, motorists and airlines were already feeling the effects of fuel shortages as oil companies suspended distribution of the commodity due to insecurity and violence.


Pakistan: Fuel shortage may worsen power situation

The electricity shortage that currently fluctuates between 1,000 and 3,000 megawatts is likely to worsen in a few days because of problems of transporting furnace oil and diesel through the railway system and other means.

Petroleum Ministry sources told Dawn that Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has sought federal government’s permission to invoke force majeure clauses of its fuel supply agreements (FSAs) with independent power producers (IPPs) because of its inability to meet fuel requirements because damage caused to railway tracks and fuel-carrying bogies was much more than originally believed.


Myanmar Quashes Fuel Ration Cut Rumors

Myanmar's ruling military, apparently wary of igniting another outbreak of mass demonstrations, tried to quash rumors Tuesday that fuel rations would be slashed in the face of rising global oil prices.

A sudden hike in fuel prices last year led to protests that ballooned into anti-government street protests that were brutally crushed by the military.


Indian oil firms to map bigger global footprint

Analysts are asking the all-important question: how long can India avoid a pass-through of global crude prices into the domestic market?


Venezuela launches new currency

Venezuela launched a new currency with the new year, lopping off three zeros from denominations in a bid to simplify finances and boost confidence in a money that has been losing value due to high inflation.

President Hugo Chavez's government says the new currency - dubbed the "strong bolivar" - will make daily transactions easier and cure some accounting headaches. Officials also say it is part of a broader effort to contain rising prices and strengthen the economy.


Oil Rig Evacuated After Radiation Scare in Vietnam

More than 400 workers on an oil rig off Vietnam were evacuated after a small amount of radioactive material went missing, authorities said Sunday.

Workers later found the piece of iridium-192, which was used to power equipment used to check for flaws in welding on the oil rig off of the southern port city of Vung Tau, 100 kilometers east of Ho Chi Minh Ciy.


Cities and energy consumption

However, while the cities may be internally efficient, the problem doesn't just lie in the stuff that gets consumed within city limits. More often than not the bigger environmental issue lies in how that stuff gets to the city in the first place.


‘Action, action, action’ needed to fight climate change

Robert H. Socolow and Stephen W. Pacala of Princeton University pioneered this thinking with the concept of a stabilizing wedge — a specific, individual technological or social action that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one billion tons annually over 50 years.

In the remainder of this article we will present 17 different possible actions, each capable of delivering one-eighth of the total solution needed. None of these actions are simple or easy — many we don’t even know how to do today — but all are considered possible with the technological innovation we can expect in the next 50 years.


Increasing global demand for energy: Challenges and opportunities

The energy crisis has started and the world is about to go through a profound and wrenching change.

We face an energy crisis never before confronted in human history. Energy for transportation, manufacturing and everyday living will have to come from other sources than the one we use now, most likely less efficient sources. That beautiful black liquid with the fantastic power / mass ratio that was the base building block of our civilization is going to hit its mid point, global peak oil, and then slid into permanent decline and we will be forced to make major changes in our way of living. Population goes up, the oil supply goes down. Year after year, decade after decade, demand and population increase, supplies of oil decrease. Until all the oil is gone.


Oil's wild ride

Oil prices look set to end 2007 with the biggest gain this decade, climbing nearly 60 percent since the start of the year. But the ascent has been anything but steady.


U.S. consumers' wallets hit by weak greenback

Americans grousing about soaring gasoline prices often focus on the big oil companies and anyone else who might profit when costs jump at the pump. But one factor that doesn't always get fingered when prices rise — a weak U.S. dollar — could draw more attention in the coming year.


Suspected militants hit Nigerian oil city, 12 dead

Suspected militants attacked two police stations, a luxury hotel and a night club in Nigeria's oil city Port Harcourt on Tuesday killing 12 people, police said. The New Year's Day assault came after troops bombed suspected rebel hideouts near the city last weekend and after the collapse of peace talks between militants and the government of Africa's top oil producer.


Nigeria: Shell West Nigeria Output Drops By Extra 80,000 B/D

THE west base operations of the Anglo Dutch Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) which covers Delta State has suffered a drop of about 80,000 barrels per day in its maximum output, just as the company announces cost cutting measures to enable it remain afloat as the Niger Delta crisis takes toll on its operations.

An official of the organisation who spoke under condition of anonymity hinted that the company is experiencing a lull in its activities in Delta and Rivers states, where several of its installations had been vandalised and out of use.

From its one million barrel per day production capacity, Shell is said to be producing only half of the total output.


Shell completes repairs at Scotford upgrader

Royal Dutch Shell Plc completed repairs to its fire-damaged Scotford oil sands upgrader and is now producing in excess of half its 155,000 barrel per day capacity of synthetic oil, with full output expected next month.


Oil in North Dakota Brings Job Boom and Burdens

The early morning line hints at the sudden fortune that has arrived: Oil companies, saying that they located what may prove to be one of the largest recent oil finds in the United States, have begun drilling all through these parts. Fifty-two drilling rigs were at work in the state at the end of December; a count taken in October showed that 198 new wells had been drilled in a year, state officials said.


Shipbuilders Expect Another Boom Year

Despite the rapid growth of Chinese shipbuilders, South Korean shipbuilders are expected to post another record year in 2008 thanks to increasing demand for valued-added ships and high oil prices.

..."Basically, there is no concern in the industry for 2008 as top local players have already secured enough orders to keep them busy for the next four years," said Ohk Hyo-won, an analyst at Hyundai Securities.


Pa. pipeline company looks to keep its tanks full

Nearly 60 million gallons of fuel move through Buckeye Partners L.P.'s pipelines every day, but the Breinigsville, Pa., company doesn't own a drop.

Instead of buying and selling fuel, Buckeye, like other pipeline companies, is paid to transport, store and load other companies' inventory onto trucks for delivery.

But its planned purchase of Farm & Home Oil Co., a fuel distributor and marketer in Telford, for $145.5 million will dramatically change the way Buckeye does business by making it the owner of some of the fuel that courses its 5,400 miles of pipelines.


Arab Times

Kuwait’s oil exports to the Far Eastern countries increased by 10.9 percent in 2007, the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) said on Monday. Spot transactions sales to the Far East in 2007 rose from 79 percent to 81 percent whole they dropped by 2 percent to the West, from 21 percent to 19 percent, Data obtained by KUNA on the KPC’s achievements this year showed. The Corporation realized KD 1.708 billion in profits during the past fiscal year and managed to double crude oil sales to the Chinese market to 80,000 barrels a day. As for training, participants in the various training and development programs in the various units of the oils sector in 2007 hit 30,000, among them 24,000 participants in the Petroleum Training Centre (PTC) in Al-Ahmadi, an unprecedented rate in the oil sector.


Hidden Holocaust - Our Civilizational Crisis: the End of the World as We Know It?

According to an official report published by British Petroleum late last year, we have about 30 years before we peak. This is supposed to be an ‘optimistic’ assessment. Apart from the fact that this is hardly good news, it is a clearly politicized claim from an oil industry fighting to sustain its credibility as the Oil Age nears its demise. Colin Campbell, himself a former senior BP geologist, argues that the data shows we have less than 4 years; and in the meantime, former US government energy adviser Matt Simmons argues that we have most likely peaked years ago, but won’t know for sure until we start feeling the crunch within a few years.


New Energy Uses for Asphalt

If you've ever blistered your bare feet on a hot road you know that asphalt absorbs the sun's energy. A Dutch company is now siphoning heat from roads and parking lots to heat homes and offices.

As climate change rises on the international agenda, the system built by the civil engineering firm, Ooms Avenhorn Holding BV, doesn't look as wacky as it might have 10 years ago when first conceived.


This year resolve to update cosmetics to eco-friendly brands

According to Hankins, over 90 percent of all beauty and cosmetic ingredients are derived from petrochemicals and other synthetics.

"The manufacturing and processing of these compounds is not only bad for people, but it creates an unsustainable business considering we have hit peak oil production," he said.


Japan to lead climate debate as head of G8 rich club

Japan took over the presidency of the Group of Eight club of the world's leading economies Tuesday, with Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda vowing to put a focus on climate change and environmental issues.


Business rules

The year 2007 will go down in history as the year when a phase shift occurred in global public awareness of the climate change crisis. It will also go down as the year when the people of the world and their future generations were shortchanged by a clique of business interests that manipulate the policies of a few powerful rich countries.


Parting company with McKibben and, maybe, Hansen

Since beating 450 ppm is doable and certainly necessary, that's where I draw the line. One advantage of pursuing 450 is that if we do get some sort of unexpected breakthrough -- a cheap and practical way to draw CO2 out of the air (that doesn't use a lot of land, water, or energy) and stick it someplace permanent -- then we would have a system in place to deploy it fast enough to perhaps get to below 400 ppm. And even if turns out 450 doesn't avert catastrophe, it will surely slow down the impacts enough to make adaptation more viable.

Leanan,

dont you EVER take a brake?

happy new year.

The same from me.

Thank you Leanan. The beat goes on.

Here is something that might be worth reading in the new year.

I'm currently reading(listening mp3) Ishmael by Daniel Quinn, it might be common knowledge around here. Seems like a spiritual version of Jared Diamond.

Since the library isn't open ...

obligatory commercial source:
http://www.amazon.com/Ishmael-Daniel-Quinn/dp/0553078755/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1...

ebook(free reg - great site):
http://gigapedia.org/items/20046/ishmael--an-adventure-of-the-mind-and-s...

direct link to save reg at gigapedia:
http://hotgiraffe.msk.ru/books/Quinn-Ishmael.zip

book on tape mp3:
http://thepiratebay.org/tor/3787304/ISHMAEL-Daniel_Quinn-AudioBook

Paul Shepard is also worth reading. He wrote 'The Tender Carnivore and the Sacred Game' back in 70's followed by 'Nature and Madness.'
You are doing it backwards :)
Usually people read Shepard -> Quinn -> Diamond

Or you could just bypass all that and go direct to the source and the original research: John Gaudy's 'Limited Wants, Unlimited Means' is a good summary and intro into HG stuff.

oh no! now ThatsItImout will probably come stomp on us for being nasty primitivist anarchits for just mentioning Quinn :P

PS: Ishmael was boring .. but The Story of B was good!

Gowdys book is great - he is supposedly on my dissertation committee, though its hard to get everyone together on different coasts.

I never read (or heard of) Shepard, but the 3 Quinn books (particularly The Story of B), made me quit the hedge fund life and go back to study human ethology/energy/environment. My dog is named Quinn...

It's one of my pet peeve's to remind Quinn-heads that people did write stuff before him. For most Silent Spring is the earliest they know of. And only a few have read Shepard. Browsing through the university libraries there are many dusty volumes full historical perspective long forgotten, but worth their weight in gold in insight for the situation we find ourselves today...

Some of the volumes found and stored in my bookshelf include:

Jay Williams - Fall of the Sparrow
(Oxford University Press 1951)

Jacks & Whyte - The Rape of the The Earth - A World Survey of Soil Erosion
(Faber, London 1939)

These are nicely bound volumes from an age when there was still a human hand involved in making a book.

I got my friend to buy a birthday present for me. He found my favourite book, Midworld by Alan Dean Foster from 1978, via Abebooks and purchased it. It arrived, hand packaged in some British newspapers, with a hand written complement slip apologising for the slight tear in the dust cover. Beats the plastic-cardboard wrapping robots at Amazon in human contact every day!

AD: Abebooks is a a worldwide network of small second-hand bookshops with every imaginable book ever published available through them. It's a very reliable and professional service.

I have a fair number of older USDA Yearbooks. These were put out by the government printing office each year. The subjects varied ..for instance one was mostly on water, another on food & fiber and so on.

If I look thru there books my father had from the mhhh 50's , and 60's they were stressing a lot of good conservation practices.

Somewhere in possibly the 70's an idiot named Earl Butz was Sec of Ag and make this sweeping stupid statement to American farmers. "Get big or get out!"...I can remember clearly my father repeating this many times to me..

So my father took out some Ag loans from those fronting those in a semi-governmental entity. What happened? He then got two more farms and went into row cropping and cattle.

He got crushed. He died a pauper on his last 10 acres. The advice for him was insane and well as many others when a huge shakeout came around the early 80s.

Those who survived brought up that distressed land and are now millionaire farmers. Few there are here but its easy to spot them for they constantly brag on themselves.

And now I no longer see those yearbooks but I can guess what they are filled with since I did used to go to many farm shows and hear all the bullshit propaganda that was being spewed forth.

Now comes the payback!!!

airdale-Rodale is the main one I now read or of his ilk. The USDA is full of shit.

Airdale,

Ah, Ag Yearbooks. I have the 1936, 1940 and 1943-47 ones. Good information. I was probably the only one who thought they were neat at a little bookstore.

But, I'll tell you, my favorite old farm book is the reprint (Lyons Press) of Traditional American Farming Techniques published around 1917. And, for those interested, it's 1,085 pages of the "good" stuff. It's ISBN 1-58574-412-3.

Todd

The 37 Yearbook is possibly the best of all, a basic text on soils. Also anything from the publisher Orange, Judd, mid 1800's to 1960, especially the series written by the Watts, father and son, on vegetables, one titled "Forcing Vegetables", has the greatest picture illustrating how badly we have gone off track in the past century. It's an electric freight trolley loading at a greenhouse range to go directly into the city...and a happy New Year.

Todd, thanx for that cite on the book. I'm going to see if anyone offers it online. Fat chance of finding it or ordering it from my small town (pop. 1,200)library - but you never know.

I think Quinn is a great storyteller, but not a real good writer and even shakier on his anthropology. I think it is somewhere in 'Story of B' where he makes the assertion that the buffalo kills done by plains Indians were a necessary 'overkill' because the hunters needed the extra fat. Basically an apology for overkill and a denial that the Indians would engage in such a wasteful practice. Nonsense, IMO.

p.170

"Excuse me," I said, "and again I hope this won't sound inquisitorial. It seems to me I've read about archaeological finds of vast kills of bison that apparently were mostly left to rot by human hunters. They killed them, picked out the parts they wanted, and abandoned the rest."

"Improbable as it seems on the basis of the facts you're just mentioned, these were not gratuitous or wasteful slaughters. Hunters in the Old West - I mean hunters of our own culture - could have explained it. They knew from experience that you could literally starve to death surrounded by bison, if they were lean animals such as you'd find late in the winter. In the absence of other food, the only way to survive in the midst of lean bison is to kill vast numbers of them and take what little fat there is. I'm not going to get into the biochemistry of it here, but if you like I can lend you a book about it."

I told her I'd take her word for it.

I woundn't - especially as Quinn's novels have no references to the sources he used. So I stand by my point - go to the source - all the way back to Marshall Sahlins...

I eventually tired of the rhetoric in Quinns books -there was almost a smug undertone like talking to a kindergartener.

However, in all respects that matter, 5 years ago I WAS a kindergartener, so his easy, repetitive, non-referenced prose about who we have become and for what reasons was what it took for my childhood to end. Its an amazing shock to recognize this is not the foreordained path for humans - its just one energizer-bunny decision tree that has kept going and going and..... (of course, eventually, there WOULD almost have to have been one decision tree that erupted like this: high population, resource depletion, etc. All the other human tribal/societal decisions leading up to that one circa 8000 years ago, would up circling back to the core 'tree' that thousands of generations of hominids before.)

So while I outgrew Daniel Quinn, reading his books was a personal watershed for me. (Note: I had started Ishmael 10 years ago and put it down, thinking it stupid...talking gorilla, etc.)

Not that it justifies overkill, but rabbit starvation was a legitimate concern. And not just with Native Americans.

Sure.....if you dont believe it go on the Adkins diet for a few weeks....you go crazy craving carbs and fat.

Atkins allows fat. Encourages it, even. It's the Stillman diet that allows only lean protein.

However, it's not a method I would recommend. "Rabbit starvation" is nasty.

Rabbit starvation is particularly well known in the Far North according to Bradford Angier. In his book, How To Stay Alive In The Woods, Bradford states, "An exclusive diet of any lean meat, of which rabbit is a practical example, will cause digestive upset and diarrhea. Eating more and more rabbit, as one is impelled to do because of the increasing uneasiness of hunger, will only worsen the condition. The diarrhea and the general discomfort will not be relieved unless fat is added to the diet. Death will follow, otherwise, within a few days. One would probably be better off on just water than on rabbit and water."

Note that this is not likely if you eat today's farm-produced meat. On average, wild game has something like 3% fat, while factory-farmed meat is more like 30%.

Yeah happy 2008 to everyone and especially to Robert Rapier I guess. Didn't he just win a $1000 bet, although it was an extremely close shave?

Robert will be doing a dedicated post about it, though I'm not sure when it's going up.

Re: Kunstler, The Voice of Doom

Everyone wants to have a happy life. We hang pretty thoughts and hopes upon our cerebral tree and we move forward. James Howard Kunstler knocks those orbs of mystery and beauty from the tree each week. Sometimes, with enough additional self-edification, those shiny ornaments are smashed forever and cannot be placed on the tree again.

For those who want to continue forward, to a new cornucopian future and afterlife it is best to defend those hopes and dreams. Don’t let Kunstler knock them off and break them. Numerous pundits and confidence people will certainly help you in your defense, sell you hope and shield you from the bleak reality.

Some of us have already systematically removed every one of those shiny ornaments from our thoughts, over the course of a lifetime of study. We see the world for what it is and most often it is not very nice, but temporarily comfortable thanks to fossil fuels. Those of us that have dropped all of our ornaments still search the floor for something to hang on our dark branches, maybe it’s a bottle of antidepressants or perhaps a dream of escaping to a truly sustainable paradise. This keeps us moving through the zombie hordes with their shiny ornaments jingle jangling a cacophony of hope and technological deliverance as they supplement their delusions with copious dopamine releasing consumption.

It is unlikely that The Oil Drum will penetrate the dense ornamentarium of the common man. The ornaments will not drop from the trees, leaving a dark hole in their souls because of reasonable arguments and higher gas prices. New dreams will be provided, a glowing fission ornament, or a delightful fusion candy cane or a solar star will be provided to keep moral high.

We are all approaching a chasm. The ornamented trees do not believe it exists. The unadorned trees have looked over the edge and understand the dynamics of collapse. Should we be trying to convince the other trees who are very unlikely to listen and are trying to build a technological bridge across a chasm that has no far wall? Should the unadorned trees build a net for ourselves and children and watch as the deluded are smashed on the rocks below? Or should we be building a net large enough for all of us?

At this point I think we should be building a net very quickly. However, I think we will spend our resources building a technological bridge to nowhere because it promises to fulfill our fantasies and deliver us to greener pastures beyond. (Also corporations will encourage this because of the vast profits involved, and will destroy themselves in the process because of greed). How do you convince a majority of people to start building a net that will leave them at a much lower level of energy consumption, but alive, instead of a bridge that will still leave them at the edge of a precipice, only in deeper portions of the chasm.

Perhaps this is the meaning of overshoot and die-off. As we move onto the exponential bridge to nowhere be sure and take your parachute and be careful when you land, there will be a lot of sharp edges down there.

Happy Doomned New Year

"We see the world for what it is.."

Much of your post is well expressed, but that line deserves to be anchored to some humility. Everyone has their filters they look through, and a 'part of the Elephant' to witness.

Bob

"If you want to hear the sound of divine laughter, tell God your plans."

Jokuhl, what you say is all very true. However that is not to say that all our filters are equally tinted. There is absolutely no doubt that, though none of us have a perfect grip on reality, some of us have a far better grip than others. It is rather like a sliding scale from those who see the world "almost" as it really is to those of us who live in an “almost” total delusion.

I give you creationism as an example. Some people believe the world was created as is in about 404 BC. Other creationists are what they call “Old World” creationist. Others straddle the fence saying something like “God guided evolution.” Still others see no divine intervention whatsoever.

Faith in technology is not totally unlike faith in God. And it is people who know almost nothing about technology who seem to have the most faith. Then there those who know more about technology who have some faith but not as much as the former. And so on down the line.

My point is that you cannot put everyone in the same basket. While Peak Oilers may not have a total grip on “the world as it is” it is my belief that they have a far better grip than the average Joe. And it is just as true that there is a sliding scale of “average Joes” just as some Peak Oilers have a better grip on what Peak Oil really means than others.

Ron Patterson

"My point is that you cannot put everyone in the same basket..."

Certainly. Or even TWO baskets (Us, Them) That's pretty much what I mean by 'humility'..

Beyond seeing people on a single spectrum from 'Lucid Reality' to 'Complete Delusion', I think it has a few more layers compounded in there. In some part of your life, you may be clear and sharp, but in another terribly adrift.. Good in Math, a disaster in Gym and Home-Ec

jokuhl, I'm mindful of the limitations of my perceptions. That's why I value TOD so much; it's the best reality check I'm aware of.

Health and Happy New Year to our community,
Errol in Miami

God set the charge on the electron and wrote out a few differential terms with the Greek character that resembles a pitchfork. That, and a few other odds and ends, and let it go like a soap bubble on the spring breeze.

I'm not sure whether I believe in quarks, however.

strange, but quarks do exhibit charm:-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quark,_Strangeness_and_Charm

I have also stumbled on this lovely site with nice graphics of a few of the many solutions for the pitchfork-function:

http://winter.group.shef.ac.uk/orbitron/AOs/5d/index.html

Thanks for that - it'll fit right in with my quaternion sims ;)

Charmingly, they are also rather strange.

Not just blind faith in technology, but also blind faith in capitalism. I sometimes read the comments on the posted articles and inevitably you get the guy that says deregulation and cutting taxes is the way to solve all problems.

How many times have you tried to explain Peak Oil and get the retort "Higher prices will open up once unprofitable sources and alternative sources, leading eventually to lower prices" as if it was inscribed on stone tablets or something.

"However that is not to say that all our filters are equally tinted. There is absolutely no doubt that, though none of us have a perfect grip on reality, some of us have a far better grip than others."

Yes, but, unfurtunately, one doesn't know what one doesn't know (I guess that is by definition :), so nobody can tell how good are his own filters.

You can tell me that my filters are bad, but why should I trust your oppinion? You can be just right, having a better perspective or just wrong, and wouldn't notice the difference.

By the way, I am still undecided about being a doomer or cornocupian.

One of the elegant things about Science, as opposed to Philosophy or Politics or Religion, is that there is a closed feedback loop.

Your hypothesis was either correct or not, and filtering or attempting to prop it up with arguments will fail to affect the result.

Of course, predicting your personal future is largely not a scientific endeavor.

Some of us are trying to build nets for ourselves but face a lot of uncertainty. Is our net going to be sturdy enough to keep us from falling? Are there going to be enough other net builders to help support us? Or will the sheer weight of the masses drag us all down into the abyss?

A view of the future as a whole can be a humbling and frightening exercise. There are ways to make your transistion to the future a bit more manageable.
You can take control of your life. How? Start shaving the odds in your favor. How? Budget your income, consider eating only fresh food, Make and maintain good friends, and realize that in the future the prime limiting factor will be mobility. Mobility; can your job be transferable? Can you relocate to more favorable climes? Can you move when others are trapped in the old paradigm of auto travel? Get a bike and use it. Get a boat and sail it. Get a pair of boots and use them. Get self reliant, Shave the odds in your favor.
You can't depend on others to do your work for you. The simple fact is that people don't want to change unless it means doing something easier. Put your own life into harmony and you will have taken control. It all starts in your own hands. Work hard, flex your muscles and your mind. TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR LIFE.

Dave on MEANDER

These are the good old days

Acutally, and this has been debated endlessly, I don't think you can convince people. I see two reasons for this: First, their formal education was useless. They neither learned practical skills nor did they learn theoretical skills. Most couldn't plot the curve of y=2x and would be agast at seeing dy/dx or f(x).

Second, they have lived outside of reality. By this I mean that they have never actually produced a physical product so they have no concept of how the stuff they are consuming comes to be. Food offers an excellent example: They have never lived on a farm and probably have never even had a home garden. They probably buy processed food and don't even cook meals from scratch muchless preserve food.

They don't produce their own energy. Even something as simple as firewood is beyond their understanding and, if they have any alternative energy systems, installation was likely contracted out so it didn't involve any thought as to why and how it functions.

So, I believe nothing is going to happen until they are forced to accept and understand that their lives have been a mirage.

Todd

PS Like everyone else THANK YOU Leanan! You are a true gem.