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DrumBeat: January 3, 2008
Posted by Leanan on January 3, 2008 - 9:56am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil breaks $100 as U.S. stockpiles drop
Oil prices broke above $100 a barrel for the first time on Thursday after a U.S. government report showed a steep slide in crude inventories in the world's biggest energy consumer.The surge in oil prices into the triple digits has darkened the economic outlook in the United States, already battered by a housing crisis and credit crunch, and could threaten growth in big European energy consuming nations.
"Oil prices have been increasing significantly. Now if this high level of prices is maintained then it will have an impact on the economy," European Commission spokeswoman Amelia Torres told a news briefing.
U.S. crude climbed 47 cents to $100.09 a barrel by 11:57 a.m. EST, breaking Wednesday's record high of $100 even. Brent crude rose 45 cents to $98.29 a barrel.
IEA Chief Says Oil May Rise to $150 on China Demand
Oil prices may rise to as high as $150 a barrel because of booming demand from India and China, according to the director of the International Energy Agency."In a very high growth scenario in China and India it may move up to $150," Nobuo Tanaka said in an interview in Paris today. Those countries "are consuming energy in a very, very substantial way."
..."Suddenly the lower-level price age may be over and we are now in the age of very high energy prices," Tanaka said.
ASPO Newsletter - January 2008 (PDF)
897. In Memory of Ali Samsam Bakhtiari
898. ASPO AUSTRIA
899. Major Oil Companies pass peak
990. Living through the Energy Crisis
991. Marketing Peak Denial
992. Comments on an article in the Sunday Times of December 16th 2007
993. Reporting More
994. Brasil Analysis Updated
995. Zero-Sum Future
996. New US policy to cut oil consumption
997. Financial Times comments on the US Situation
998. The Pope addresses the Energy Issue
999. Data for 2007
From $1.80 to $100 in 37 years
Key milestones in the price of crude oil since 1970. On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of light sweet crude, the benchmark oil price in New York, broke through $100 for the first time.- 1970: The official price of Saudi crude oil is fixed at $1.80 a barrel.
Crude inventories down 700,000 barrels in latest week: API
Crude inventories fell by 700,000 barrels to 297.7 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 28, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Thursday, according to Moody's Economy.com. Distillate stocks rose by 4.7 million barrels to 133.7 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks gained by 6.9 million barrels to 212.9 million barrels, the API said.
French Finance Minister: Happy Strong Euro Offsets Rising Oil Prices
The strong euro is helping the French economy at a time when the price of oil has touched $100 per barrel for the first time, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Friday."We often complain about the strong euro when it weighs on our exporting companies," she said at a press conference. "I see for once that the strong euro is making our raw materials purchases cheaper."
Oil at $100: How will it affect me?
QUESTION: How will $100 oil affect the prices I pay for energy?ANSWER: Higher crude prices will almost certainly drive up the cost of refined products, although the gasoline pump may not be the first place consumers see prices rise.
Gazprom critical of energy measures, offered by European Union
A new package of measures in the energy sector, suggested by the European Union, “puts many questions, to which there are no replies so far”. This idea was stressed by Gazprom board deputy chairman Alexander Medvedev in an interview which was published by the Paris-based Tribune newspaper on Thursday.
Analysis: Venezuelan oil production down
Venezuela's oil industry shrank by more than 5 percent in 2007, according to the Venezuelan National Bank, raising concerns the Venezuelan government is not investing enough of its petroleum wealth in the sector.Oil production was off 5.3 percent in 2007 from the previous year and contributed $3.14 billion to the country's gross domestic product, down from both 2006 and 2005 when the sector accounted for a reported $3.38 billion.
If President Hugo Chávez dreams of turning Venezuela into a Cuba with oil, the Venezuelans who oppose him have discovered the perfect antidote: the student movement.
Sinopec to Focus on Foreign Asset Acquisition through 2010
China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec Group, the country's second-largest oil company by assets, will emphasize acquisition of foreign oil and gas assets in the coming years to 2010 to build the company into an international oil major, its general manager Su Shulin said in a posting on its Web site Wednesday.
China Looks to Coal Bed Methane
As the Chinese economy grows at double-digit rates, satisfying the country's energy appetite is a top priority for President Hu Jintao and his government. While China's oil companies and their search for partners in places like Sudan commands most of the attention in the West, coal is of much greater importance to China than oil.
U.S. Department of Justice Signals Possible Appeal of Royalties Case
The Department of Justice took a step last month toward appealing a court ruling that limits the government's ability to collect billions in royalties from companies pumping oil in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.
The Future of the Quik 'N Easy Meal
My own observation is that in many cases, it is harder to learn to eat and preserve what you grow all the time than it is to grow it. That’s even truer as we begin eating less common foods, or moving towards a truly local diet. We are making an enormous change in our diets, and in our society as a whole. Food is more than fuel – It is culture, love, happiness, comfort, a part of who we are. How we eat and what we eat is part of our identity – far more than what we grow. We are about to change our identities in a profound way. And at the root of this transition is the question of time – the quick and easy 3 hour meal requires someone to be around to cook it, watch over it, check on it. With a majority of households working hard to make ends meet, we encounter a bind – we could make ends meet better if we didn’t have to buy our food at restaurants, but cooking quickly and sustainably requires knowledge, experience and the time at least to learn how to do it. Most often, it requires someone at home.
Fantasy fuels: Saying goodbye to cheap, plentiful gasoline
When I was a kid, my father told me stories about an inventor guy in the 1930s who was going to end the monopoly of the big oil companies by creating a car that ran only on water and some sort of pill he would throw into the tank.You can bet Big Oil wouldn't stand for that, so they "moidered" the upstart before he could provide relief to drivers suffering from gas prices approaching 10¢ a gallon.
My father knew even then that the story was an urban legend, but the idea of inventing an alternative automobile fuel that any schmo could draw from the kitchen faucet has undeniable appeal.
Ancient Warming Caused Huge Spike in Temps, Study Says
What started out as a moderate global warm-up about 55 million years ago triggered a massive injection of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that sent temperatures skyrocketing, a new study says.The finding suggests that today's temperature rise may just be priming the planet for a carbon belch of epic proportions.
Chinese shrug off $100 oil, but Beijing must beware
Oil prices at $100 a barrel mean little to Chinese consumers insulated from the global rally by cheap fuel prices, but the latest market peak should sound a warning to Beijing over its disjointed energy policy.China's leaders extolled the virtues of energy efficiency at every turn last year, but refused to do the one thing that would immediately curb demand -- lift the caps on gasoline and diesel prices, a move they fear would feed already-high inflation.
Strains caused by the widening gap between international and domestic markets may become unmanageable if oil prices stay in three-figure territory, but Beijing may struggle to escape from the vicious cycle its policies have created.
Uganda: Fuel Crisis is Big Lesson for Us
Within hours of violence erupting in Kenya following the country's disputed polls, an unprecedented shortage of fuel and subsequently the rise in fuel prices rocked the country.By yesterday, the queues at fuel stations had more or less disappeared, not because supplies had been restored but because many motorists had exhausted their reserves running from one station to another where they were told they could get a few drops.
Rwanda: Fuel Crisis Imminent Violence in Kenya Continues - Official
Rwanda has not experienced any shortages of petroleum products but should the violence in Kenya continue unabated - the effects will spill over, senior private sector official said on Wednesday.According to Mr. Emmanuel Hategeka - Executive Secretary of the Rwanda Private Sector Federation, Rwanda has sufficient fuel reserves at the moment that may run out anytime soon because there are no imports coming in, the state broadcaster reported.
Ukraine's Naftogaz faces bankruptcy, Eurobond concern
"I was shocked by the information given to me by the new Naftogaz head. The company is facing bankruptcy," Tymoshenko said after meeting Dubyn, whom she appointed after taking over as premier in December."The company's credit-debit liabilities show that the financial health of the company is not ensured."
She also said the country's underground reserves did not belong to Naftogaz but were in the hands of "criminal shady structures".
PetroChina delays refinery, petchem unit to end '08
PetroChina will defer the start-up of a new 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery in China's remote northwest by almost a year to late 2008 due to building problems, two company sources said on Thursday.
Australia: Extra power eases electricity supply crisis
PERTH may be spared blackouts today after Western Power said it had found extra power to replace capacity lost to a gas-plant fault.Western Power spokeswoman Miriam Borthwick said 385 megawatts of additional energy had been obtained from various sources.
She said residents also had heeded the warning to keep a lid on their energy use, which was issued after an electrical fault at Woodside's Karratha Gas Plant yesterday dramatically cut gas supplies, affecting 20 per cent of the state's power generators.
Australia not out of the woods with gas crisis
Western Australians will have to minimise energy consumption for at least 24 hours as they wait for gas from the North West Shelf to reach power stations.Gas supplies have been dramatically reduced because of an electrical fault on Wednesday that caused the shutdown of Woodside Petroleum Ltd's Karratha plant.
Conoco's results hurt by refining margins
The energy company says its fourth-quarter results were supported by higher oil, gas prices but slipped on lower refining, marketing margins.
Plowing, road salt eating up budgets
Salt is one of the most heavily used compounds in global manufacturing. Demand in rapidly growing countries, such as China and India, combined with the costs of fuel for shipping it, have translated into eye-popping price increases. Boxford and 18 other local communities, from Merrimac to Manchester-by-the-Sea, that buy salt together in a consortium have weathered a 36 percent price increase since 2004. And that was on top of a 25 percent hike the year before.
Symposium: The World Is Not Enough
In the last issue of The National Interest, David Victor argued that the threat of resource wars is overplayed and overblown....Now we hear from Victor’s critics, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Klare, Sherri Goodman and Paul Kern. They tackle him on everything, from climate change to the impact of oil shortages and the mass spread of disease. Victor has the last word.
With oil nearing $100 a barrel, I’m writing to announce that the all-time peak of global petroleum production is behind us. It happened in 2006. Once on the downhill slope of the oil production bell curve, supplies will decline about 3 percent annually.Sustainability analyst Lester Brown released an update recently that ran through the figures: “After climbing from 82.9 million barrels per day in 2004 to 84.15 million barrels per day in 2005, output only increased to 84.8 million barrels per day in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 million barrels per day during the first 10 months of 2007.” Unless some new production comes online soon, the numbers indicate that the peak indeed occurred in 2006.
Just not enough oil to go around
Another year, another record oil price. The immediate reasons why the price of a barrel of oil jumped $4 to $100 yesterday were a cold snap in North America and unrest in two important producing nations: Nigeria and Algeria. Beneath the surface, however, the key fact about oil has not changed, and it is an uncomfortable fact: there is not enough being produced. Or, more precisely, there is not enough spare capacity in places such as Saudi Arabia to prevent regular price spikes. It is why $100 oil no longer looks like an aberration, but the norm for a while yet.
German institute DIW sees oil prices doubling within 10 years
German research institute DIW sees oil prices doubling to 200 usd per barrel within the coming 10 years, DIW's head of department for energy, transport and environment Claudia Kemfert told Berliner Zeitung.'Oil reserves are becoming scarce, and that will drive up prices further,' Kemfert told the newspaper.
A combination of increasingly difficult to access new oil resources as huge older fields face depletion; more success for the oil cartel OPEC in controlling supply; a surge in demand from Asia in recent years; increasing interest from market players in investing in oil futures and subsidies for consumers in many countries in the Middle East and Asia in particular, has underpinned the price.
Political Peak Oil: Price Spikes to $100 on Nigerian Unrest
This is peak oil.No, it's not that we've pumped up every drop of crude oil that million-year-old plankton provided for us. Not necessarily. This isn't geologic peak oil. It's political peak oil.
Are we running out of oil? FPTV speaks with Vijay Vaitheeswaran and Robert L. Hirsch about their conflicting views on the future of the world's greatest addiction.
Uganda: Fuel Prices Double As Stocks Run Out
Escalating fuel shortage in the country compounded by hoarding triggered by sensational speculation have more than doubled the price of petrol overnight as black marketers pocketed staggering profits in roadside sales.
Pakistan: Loadshedding duration enhanced to 10 hours
The country Wednesday faced additional power shortage of 1000 MW following the tower blown-up incident in Hub accumulating the demand-supply gap to 4000MW and resulting in enhancing the loadshedding period to ten hours, it is learnt.Sources concerned told The Nation that the electric distribution companies, which had been made independent with respect to managing the demand-supply gap at their own, were forced to move on to effect over 10-hour loadshedding especially in rural areas.
Trees absorbing less CO2 as world warms, study finds
The ability of forests to soak up man-made carbon dioxide is weakening, according to an analysis of two decades of data from more than 30 sites in the frozen north.The finding published today is crucial, because it means that more of the CO2 we release will end up affecting the climate in the atmosphere rather than being safely locked away in trees or soil.
Dan Bloom thinks it's time to figure out how to build self-sustaining cities in the polar regions because climate change will eventually make most of Earth uninhabitable.These polar cities may be "humankind's only chance for survival if global warming really turns into a worldwide catastrophe in the far distant future," Bloom told IPS.
China closes over 10,000 coal mines in last three years
China closed 10,412 coal mines in the last three years amid efforts to improve workplace safety and to check extravagant use of natural resources, the country's top industrial safety inspector said.
Truckers push for national idling laws
"It is the most frustrating scenario you could imagine," says Todd Spencer, executive vice president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents 159,000 truckers and small trucking firms. "The federal regulations say a driver must stop to sleep after X number of hours. How many people could sleep in their car when it's 96 degrees or 14 below without the engine running?"
Investment in clean energy topped $100 billion for first time in 2007
Despite the global credit crunch in 2007, new investment in clean energy industries like wind and solar power rose sharply to break through the $100 billion barrier for the first time, a research group, New Energy Finance, said Wednesday.
Uganda: The Fuel in Human Excreta
HUMAN excreta and urine are now an asset to farmers because they are a cheap source of biogas energy. The two offer the best biogas followed by pig and cattle dung.
Green units profitable, says builder
For the most part, the houses on Marla Circle in Tyngsborough look like a typical snapshot of suburbia. The architectural style is Colonial or Greek Revival, blending with the New England feel of the town. Porticos and porches stretch outward into fertile lawns from clapboard buildings. Only the solar electrical panels on their roofs stand out.Contrary to a longstanding perception among developers that building green homes is not financially feasible, Carter Scott, who built the development, says the subdivision is proof that developers can be environmentally sensitive - and make a profit.
Saudi Aramco Delays Production Start From Khursaniyah
Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state- owned oil company, delayed the start of production from the 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah field and said it will meet market demand with existing spare capacity."Should the need arise prior to the completion of the project, Saudi Aramco stands ready to meet market demands with ample spare capacity, including 1 million barrels of Arab Light crude," the company said in an e-mailed statement today.
Khursaniyah will commence "upon completion of commissioning activities," Saudi Aramco said.
The project, which was scheduled to start in December, will produce and process 500,000 barrels a day of Arabian Light crude and 300 million square cubic feet a day of natural gas, according to Saudi Aramco.
Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: Diesel
Now there seems to be a new problem developing: diesel for the great machines that grow our food, bring us stuff, take away our garbage and do nearly all the chores needed to keep our civilization running. If you think about it for a few minutes, you might conclude that a diesel shortage would be worse than a gasoline shortage. If the availability of gasoline gets tight, we can all cancel recreational car trips, play dates for the kids, and form commuting or shopping carpools. For the sake of some inconvenience, we could cut gasoline consumption by a whole lot.It’s not the same with diesel however. Two farmers can’t jump on a tractor and plow both their farms at the same time. Most of those 18-wheelers barreling down the interstate are either full or on the way to be filled. One trash truck picking up in two neighborhoods at the same time doesn’t work either. In short, it is going to be a lot harder to conserve on diesel fuel, which for the most part does vital work, than it would be to conserve gasoline for our personal transportation.
Consumers likely to shake off rising cost of oil
With oil at the once unfathomable price of $100 a barrel, consumers can expect the cost of filling their gas tanks, heating their homes — in fact, the price of most everything — to also keep rising.Still, analysts don’t expect record-high prices by themselves to send the economy into recession, simply because expensive as oil is, energy doesn’t consume as big a chunk of Americans’ budget as it did decades ago.
OPEC may raise output at Feb 1 meet: Indonesia OPEC gov
OPEC may decide to increase oil output at its February 1 meeting in Vienna if supply is not sufficient, Indonesia's OPEC governor told Reuters on Thursday.Maizar Rahman said that OPEC has the capability to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day, and warned that oil prices could climb even higher.
Jeff Rubin, the CIBC chief economist who first called for US$100-a-barrel oil back in 2005, says that sustained oil prices above US$90 already show that the market is paying much less attention to how demand from the world's largest economy will affect the price of oil."The growth in global crude demand is not coming from the United States and is unlikely to come from the United States in the future," Mr. Rubin said.
$100 OIL: Crosses Line After Yrs Of Diverging Demand, Supply
Analysts and industry experts caution that there are always unknowns with any long-term energy forecast, but many have become confident of the notion that there is now a higher long-term "floor" for oil prices. The major oil companies are making investment decisions based on whether projects make sense at $40-$50 per-barrel, as opposed to $20-per-barrel a few years ago, said Cambridge Energy Research Associates Chairman Daniel Yergin."Whatever the floor is, we're certainly in a new era as far as oil prices," Yergin said.
Without endorsing the notion of "peak oil," some leading oil companies have begun describing petroleum resources as increasingly constrained. These include ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), whose chief executive, Dave O'Reilly, declared famously in 2004 that "the time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending."
Nigeria: Governor: I'll arrest militants' parents
The governor of one of Nigeria's oil-rich states said Wednesday he planned to arrest the parents of suspected militants to deter attacks on oil installations and government buildings.
Sustainable growth is the key to our future
NO DISCUSSION of sustainable consumption can ignore the concept of “peak oil”. This is the situation where we reach the maximum possible rate of oil exploitation.Then, as oil becomes scarcer, so its price rises, with all manner of implications.
The environmental consequences of using up our precious oil resources are already severe.
But the social effects might have even a greater impact on our lives.
Fossil Fuels and GM Performance
If you read my editorial relating to peak oil back in the November 2005 issue, you know that it has been over 50 years since M. King Hubbert, a Shell engineer, correctly predicted that oil production in the US mainland would peak by 1971. And as the US, and developing countries like China and India, use more and more oil at the start of a new millenium, the future looks grim for fossil fuels. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to hear what the old-timers say about 50-cent gas, look at the current prices over $3.00, and realize that supply and demand has come into painful effect.That said, where does that leave us, the hot rodder? In 12 years, will this can of race fuel being dumped into my 10-second Turbo Buick be too expensive to buy due to the depletion of fossil fuels?
Co-founder of UN climate panel dies
Bert Bolin, a Swedish climate scientist and co-founder of the Nobel Peace-winning U.N. panel on climate change, has died at age 82.As early as the 1950s, Bolin produced research about the circulation of carbon in nature that remains relevant to the debate on climate change. He played a key role in communicating the dangers of climate change and served as the first chairman of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1988 to 1998.
Alaskan sea drilling plans criticized
The federal government will open up nearly 46,000 square miles off Alaska's northwest coast to petroleum leases next month, a decision condemned by enviromental groups that contend the industrial activity will harm northern marine mammals.
Australia looks to GM crops after scorching 2007
Australia's agriculture minister on Thursday hailed genetically modified crops as a means to help farmers combat climate change, as data showed 2007 was the country's sixth hottest year on record.
Nature and man jointly cook Arctic
There's more to the recent dramatic and alarming thawing of the Arctic region than can be explained by man-made global warming alone, a new study found. Nature is pushing the Arctic to the edge, too.There's a natural cause that may account for much of the Arctic warming, which has melted sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Nature. New research points a finger at a natural and cyclical increase in the amount of energy in the atmosphere that moves from south to north around the Arctic Circle.
But that energy transfer, which comes with storms that head north because of ocean currents, is not acting alone either, scientists say. Another upcoming study concludes that the combination of both that natural energy transfer increase and man-made global warming serve as a one-two punch that is pushing the Arctic over the edge.
Regarding the delay in the Khursaniyah Project, posted uptop. BTW, the 500,000 bpd increase is a projected increase. It is going to be interesting to continue to compare actual production rates versus projected rates for the various mega-projects that are projected to be coming on line.
http://www.energybulletin.net/4785.html
Published on 20 Mar 2005 by EnergyBulletin.net.
Aramco Projects: A Closer Look
by Greg Croft
Another day, another lie from Saudi Aramco. Million barrels of spare light crude production to tap into, indeed! Sounds like they are ready to drain their 'strategic petroleum reserve tank'.
Ah well,I guess I'll go contemplate climate change at our neighbourhood, outdoor, naturally frozen, hockey rink. It's -23 Celsius here in Canada's capital this morning. I and other community volunteers were pouring the water on (no drought in these parts) until the wee hours last night and I'm off to try to get a thick enough ice surface to survive next week's big melt when temperatures are rumoured to be heading up to plus 10 Celsius. I remember when the great white north was the great white north, heh.
Was skating on the canal cancelled last year because of warm temps ?
I went a few years ago and there was ice but it was melting so fast the surface was covered with a couple inches of slush...
In the end a new record for consecutive days open was almost set last winter. Nonetheless, the season was short, beginning on January 26 and closing in early March. Historically, the season would be broken up by at least one mid winter weather event, thus the 'reachability' of the consecutive days record. Not so long ago, many people looked forward to skating off the New Year's Eve hangover on January 1st. Another story for the grandkids.
Skating on the Rideau Canal (8 kilometres cleared and flooded regularly) at the break of day is one of life's great experiences. Hopefully,you will get another chance. You can check out ice conditions by calling a number available at this website:
http://www.canadascapital.gc.ca/bins/ncc_web_content_page.asp?cid=16297-...
Oil Trades Near $100 as OPEC Officials Say They Can't End Rally
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=axiLVrRoyVYI&refer=energ...
I’m sorry if this article was already posted.
Is this finally an admission to Peak Oil or at the very least the lack of spare capacity that Saudis supposedly have? If you read into this and start asking why they cannot increase capacity IMO makes this a huge story. I’m surprised the futures are not up more, maybe waiting for today's inventory report.
I can't help wondering if they're breaking it to us gently. That report yesterday saying they would hit the wall in 2037, for example. I suspect they know there could be problems well before then, but saying so would panic the markets. Even 2037 caused a lot of concern, as reflected in yesterday's price spike.
Wonder how much of their cash is going to buy into replacement energy systems for the future.They could probably buy controlling interest in any systems.
At that point will their cash be worth anything?
bruce from chicago,I own some of that cash :>) You being a tradesman yesterdays post from those looking for govt standards on energy in buildings is that there is none except from local areas.I read a couple of months ago that builder on a national level were hashing out what is or isn't green.Builders have been able to hang a tag of energy efficient for better sales but compared to what I've worked in some that were supposed to be energy efficient and took a wall plate off and the wind coming in could blow your hat off.Pathmann Paints in Palatine and Lake Zurich are the only two outlets in the US for nano tech coating that insulates.
Yeah, there are some real scumbags out there building some inferior buildings. They usually have crews of illegal Polish, Mexican, and Irish immigrants slapping them together. I seen a new condo unit going up in the Bridgeport area a few months ago that was built by a Polish crew and Oh baby!, what an example of a shoemaker job. Probably wont stand for twenty years. The building inspectors are all paid off, as is everyone else. My present home is a modular house. Cabinet work is shitty. Plumbing is garbage. Electrical needs to be upgraded. But the basic structure is built very well and is tight as a drum and energy efficient. Today I’m working on putting in a non-combustible floor and back wall for my new wood stove. Propane is a killer economically. I'll have to look into that paint. Thanx.
In 1976 when I was twenty something I set down at a lunch counter next to a 50 something guy that had foreman on his shirt.I asked him what he was building and his exact words were "Our future with the materials we're using now there will be major repair work, they won't last 40 yrs" his is spot on I'm leaving right now to go work at a multi family unit that was built about 5 yrs ago it coming apart like a cheap suit.The dirty little secret of the housing bubble.Good for you and for me.Take care....
My house was built in 1927 but it also has a 1989 addition, the plumbing from 27 is fine that from 89 is falling apart.
Reminds me that I recently bought a new toilet lock part for a 30 year old standard door. I did not fit, the standard had changed to 8 mm thicker doors.
I have been a structural steel inspector{highrise}20 years,and have watched a lot of building done.Its done to code here in Portland Ore.
I have found here that men will build the best they know how,IF THEY ARE PAID PROPERLY.
Bottom line.You get what you pay for.You cover your ass by hiring people like me to make sure you do.If you hire someone to build,you had better do your homework,Or like anything else in life,you will get burned.
I know of damn little paid off building inspectors in my area .The one I did know of was paid buy a "deal"on a house...and it cost him his career,reputation,ect.It cost the contractor his ability to work in Portland Ore.Shoddy work is not tolerated in this area.
That doesn't mean that the crackerbox residential construction is a "good",longterm investment.You should understand that these are designed to last as long as the mortgage.
I built my house framed in 6'tubesteel,on 29yards of concrete,with 4'x36'pierpiles under each of 14 columns.I have r-50 walls,w/8'dead air in each wall.A standing seam 50 year 30-70 zinc-alum roof.As I am able to hammer a nail,cut a board w/a saw,I built my own house.I am NOT a contractor,I subbed out the stuff my back couldn't handle like sheetrock.
It cost me $28,000 to build.
Anyone who takes there time,and can read a book,can build a efficient,comfortable house.You do your research,and decide what you need,and what you can afford.I have wanted to have a stone exterior....no maintainence besides a little pointing once every 10 to 20 years,but the cost,sweet christ the cost.
I have collected rock the last 5 years.
This year I found a deal on 12 yards of "small" boulders for 450 bucks.This load may make the stucco base...turn to stone...soon
This is why unions and proper training are so important, so that workers are paid a proper wage and benefits in accordance with their skill. I’ve been a member of the Chicago District Council of Carpenters Union for 34 years, fist as a cabinetmaker, and later as a shop and field carpenter. We make sure our skills are up to date, and have a training center in Elk Grove village to keep these skills up to date. We take pride in our work, and welcome anyone to our brotherhood that is willing to uphold the standards of high craftsmanship.
TO ALL LEGAL!! AMERICANS
retur USA to Native Americans
( who is illegal immigrant NOW )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_massacres
Peyskop...
reasoning is futile, but comfort yourself by observing that anti-immigrant postings invariably display low intellectual quality.
Doesn't matter what age you live in: An economy heads south and the government looks for scapegoats to assign blame.
Unfortunately history also shows that it's consistently an effective tactic for manipulating the lower classes.
Duhhh! Yoo gott me peged perfektlee!
They already own the "replacement systems".
The future is Shock Doctrine.
Note that "their cash" is going into weapons systems and private security.
At least we now know what the absolute limit is. So it has to be between 2005 and 2037.
PO is no longer speculative.
the PPT is obligated to buy anything and everything to keep
the status quo.
Later in the day, Nobuo Tanaka was interviewed on Bloomberg and here's the direct video link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/ca...
The collection of articles is all over the map. Homer-Dixon pointing out that DOH! climate matters - that the wealthy are looting everyone else and "everyone else" is getting uppitty, etc....
China shuts down as many coal mines in 2007 as it executes people in 2007. 10 thousand - what to make of that? 10 thousand executed by the state. Even in "Brave New World" they had their own island. Lethal injection or a bullet - I guess with 10 thousand the price matters.
DOJ hints it might appeal adverse decision in royalties case? Oh please, kick the football.
Road salt eating budgets in my hometown area.
The footprint is too big; it's very simple. Next?
cfm in Gray, ME
"Tanaka of IEA Says oil may rise to $150 on Asian Demand : Video"
I don't see a way to link to the vid, the link is currently at the bottom on the main bloomberg.com page. Check it out if you like video better than text.
Tanaka of IEA Says Oil May Rise to $150 on Asian Demand: Video
An incredible revelation. He must've used the word 'suddenly' about 10 times. Suddenness happens I suppose....
Still the part bout dissagreement with OPEC being able to stem the demand tide and the openness about possible near-term $150 oil...quite revealing
RE: Nigeria Governor: I will arrest militants parents
Pretty damn sick if you ask me. Probably enrage the militants even further!
Next weeks Nigeria headline: Nigerian governor assassinated! =O
Bring my family into the game and suddenly it gets real bad for his troops people too I bet...This ones getting ugly fast
Hornet's nest alert:
How about your average Palestinian family's house being razed for crimes committed by their kid? Think that engenders any long-term hard feelings?
Old-timers? 50 cents? I had a driver's license when gas crossed 40 cents per gallon in the early 70s. As a kid I remember gas occasionally falling under 20 cents a gallon (in Pennsylvania).
I'm not THAT old, dagnabit! And I'll pummel with my cane anyone who says I am.
What did you drive during the Civil War, grandpa?
Prepare to feel the wrath of the most gentle pummeling you will ever experience! >=D
Hey I'm only 24 and gas was just 98 cents out here in Eastern Iowa when I started driving. How much was I making an hour back then? $8.25 washing trucks. How much does that same job pay now? $8.25 an hour =)
For those of us known as Baby Boomers, World War II is Ancient History. We didn't live it as our parents did. I recall gas prices in the $0.25 during the 1960's and even sold a car (a 1968 Camaro Z28) in 1970 when gas prices hit about $0.35 a gallon for super high test. At the time, gasoline was my second largest expense, as I was driving about 25,000 miles a year commuting in California.
E. Swanson
Ever regret selling the Z28? They are very rare as there were not many made and they're now worth a bundle of money. One of my best friend’s neighbor has one. Die hard gearhead, would probably sell his family before he got rid of that car. I wonder what hell do with it ten years from now?
Well, yes and no. I really regret trading the 1964 Malibu with the 4 speed and the 327 to get the Z28. The Malibu was a much better handling car after I switched the rear springs to some from a station wagon that I had cut down 1 coil, giving more rear roll stiffness. The Z28 only did 10 mpg, fast or slow and was not very good going around corners until I changed the front geometry and switched to radials. The tight fender wells would not allow tires larger than stock. As far as speed goes, my 1990 Ford Taurus SHO with the 3.0 litre Yamaha engine that I bought for $1200 a few years ago will probably run as fast (not that I will ever find out) and can still get 30 mpg at 70 mph on the freeway...
E. Swanson
Do you mean Datsun 240Z? I think that sucked. Front end heavy, oversteered at 90mph. It sucked. You're head is three feet above the pavement and there is 6 feet of hood ahead of you. Stick that out between the stone walls at the end of the driveway. And it wasn't the Portsmouth bridge swaying in the wind, but the car. Fast but unstable. My 1959 Caddy wouldn't beat it out of the gate, but would come up damn fast behind it - and blow by stable with the AC and 8track running. Plus the requisite hitchhiker going to Woodstock.
That 59 Caddy was my first car. Bought it from a state cop in MA, along with two others for spare parts. Funny thing about those serial numbers.
cfm in Gray, ME
Well, if we are getting into bragging, my grandmother was born in January 1884, only a year or two after the car was invented (internal combustion engine powered vehicle). She remembered the Boar War, was 18 when Queen Victoria died, 35 when she received the vote, and 60 at the end of WWII. Died in 1984. She certainly saw some changes in her life.
BTW I am 45 and my daughters are 4 and 5. If everybody bred as fast as my family, we wouldn't be in this mess.... :)
Edit: got my numbers wrong !
Ralph, I'm 66 and my maternal grandfather was born in February 1863,
and his father (my great-grandfather) in 1821.
This was only 6 years after the battle of Waterloo; Beethoven and
Schubert were both still alive.
My mother's family come from the rural UK county of Norfolk, where in
the past it was not uncommon for men to marry/remarry whilst in their
seventies, resulting in people living today whose great-grandparents
were born in in the late 1700's.
I can recall an elderly gentleman whose grandfather was held aloft so
that he could see the Duke of Wellington's victory parade which was
held in London after Waterloo.
The past is not so remote as we sometimes think.
Gasoline $.199 at the corner station in San Francisco, Aug 1971. Lowest I ever saw. I wonder how that compared to the average wage or the minimum wage at the time? Almond Joy candy bar was $.10, so by that measure, gas is more expensive now.
Driving cross-country from Indiana toward california in the summer of '70, managed to fill up for 16.9 cents per gallon at some no-name station, must have been a refinery nearby. Even at the time I figured it was the cheapest gas I'd ever see again.
The car DID run funny for awhile afterwards.
Gas cost 13.9 for Gulftane [ Gulf Oil's cheapest blend ] back in 1969. It was a ' gas war' The taxes on the pump said 12.4 cents / gallon. Back in Western New York. I remember burning off a set of tires in one night. Only took 1 and 1/2 tanks of gas.
Dave on MEANDER
These are the good old days
Favorite vehicles of all time, one ton duallies. LOL.
Well, it's been so long I don't remember the exact make & model, but I'm pretty sure it had a 1 HP powerplant, 4 on the floor, and genuine leather surfaces.
That is so close to what my son (now 42) asked me when he was in the fifth grade. With him, though, he was serious.
That's nothing. I'm just old enough to remember "gas wars", where two or more gas stations located close to each other in high-traffic areas would keep under-pricing each other. Sometimes the price would drop to single digit territory for a while. Hard to imagine now.
When I was 7 or 8 (1957) I recall passing the (Pre-Chavez) Citgo station on the way to the grocery store. My mama remarked about the "gas wars" between Citgo and Service Distributing (Charlotte, NC). The "gas war" price? 17 cents per gallon!
I remember 17 cent gas when I first started to drive in the 50's.
Yet Eisenhower was able to pass a nickel a gallon tax to build the Interstate Highway system !
If 17.9 cents was before the tax, that would have been a 28% tax.
Alan
I remember how angry I was when gas went over 40 cents a gallon.
Back in 1957 that wouldn't have been a Citgo station - it would have been Cities Service. They changed their name in the mid-60s.
I can recall gas at $.249 in the early 60's (little town in Mississippi far from refineries or competitors). BUT, that was a silver quarter.
This afternoon the melt value of a silver US quarter is $2.78, not so far from the present price for a gallon of gas. As Simmons says, oil is still way to cheap!
I don't have any of that gas I burned, but I still have some of those quarters : )
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
I can recall $.19 a gallon at the Venture store but still had to push my VW into the station a few times because I was too short of cash to fill up before absolutely necessary. I was earning $.75 an hour at my job. This was in the early 70s.
When I started driving in 1968 in Oz, with $1 I could get a gallon of petrol (Imp = not US), a packet of Marlboro and a bottle of beer and still have 2 cents over for a box of matches. My girlfriend (now wife) and I would head for the beach. A cuddle, a swim, a smoke and a beer all for less than a dollar. Priceless really.
Senior citizen's [45 days younger than Saddam] father was born in 1888.
Senior citizen was on sabbatical leave in computer science at the Univeristy of Illinois in 1972-73 after buying new gas guzzling Ford F250 4x4 at the time of the first gas crunch.
Senior citizen went to work for Sandia labs 1980 at the start of the Iraq/Iran war.
Senior citizen, who has known about peak oil since 1956, was very concerned in both 1973 and 1980 that we were entering a time of diminishing oil.
But it didn't happen either time.
Senior citizen is optimistic about future energy to November 2008, that is.
Provided WWIII doesn't start before November 2008.
To that end, senior citizen is working to get these unfortunate matters settled peacefully.
We have the viz.
Let's ALL hope for success!
There was a DX station on the corner near my house growing up. Their product was marketed as "Super Boron". And Shell was selling TCP as an additive -- all of them had ethyl in 'em. I think you needed the Borax or TCP as a detergent to scrub lead residues from your valve stems and leave them along the road where they belong :)
They'd occasionally have gas wars and the price would decline to below $0.25/gallon.
And I believe the same hillbillies that are denying AGW now, were ranting about the EPA forcing removal of ethyl from their mix back then.
Letting the facts do the talking is a good way to avoid being the messenger.Politicians do not like giving bad news,so if a spokesperson for wyz company gets the "credit"so much the better
Demand destruction, Pakistan-style, reported by Barnett Rubin at icga.blogspot.com:
***
I called a friend in Lahore this morning. The obstacles are not just that electoral materials (possibly including those prepared for rigging) were destroyed in the rioting. The country's infrastructure is under severe stress. In Lahore there are only 7 hours of electricity a day, and water pressure is also reported to be unreliable (I know those of you in Kabul may not feel their pain). Optic fiber lines were cut in Sindh, blacking out telecommunications for a while. The front page of Dawn online yields the following: There has been massive damage to the country's rail network. Fuel is in short supply, and the shortages are likely to get worse. The stock market and the currency are both crashing. Government ministers are charging "foreign elements" (i.e. India) with organizing the riots, a useful excuse for martial law.
Is there a baseline to go with this report? How much electricity did they have a year ago? Is there any trouble related to hydro?
That could get insanely bad faster than we can imagine if they're blaming India ... anything to distract from internal dissent, even if it leads to a nuclear exchange.
6000 mw shortfall by summer.
Not including riots.
More important:
75% of all NATO materials go thru Karachi.
Natives could get restless wondering why they're starving
and this train of supply is snaking thru their community/country.
Same with Basra/Baghdad BTW.
Pakistan soon to be cold and dark
The electricity shortage that currently fluctuates between 1,000 and 3,000 megawatts is likely to worsen in a few days because of problems of transporting furnace oil and diesel through the railway system and other means.
Petroleum Ministry sources told Dawn that Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has sought federal government’s permission to invoke force majeure clauses of its fuel supply agreements (FSAs) with independent power producers (IPPs) because of its inability to meet fuel requirements because damage caused to railway tracks and fuel-carrying bogies was much more than originally believed.
The sources said that the PSO had written to the government that the railway authorities had informed them that they would not be in a position to repair the damaged infrastructure in less than 20 days.
The sources said prolonged disruption in the movement of fuel oil could also lead to shortage of other products because of 20-25 per cent reduction in capacity utilisation of refineries.
http://www.dawn.com/2008/01/01/top11.htm
Prices must increase until either demand destruction takes place, or enough money is generated for additional power generation. This idea of cheap electricity for all must be abandoned.
Also, time of use metering with a real-time usage monitor must be used instead of this "by the kilowatt hour" nonsense. Time, actual KW consumption, combined with KWH consumption metering.
No worries, Goldman rides to the rescue by installing Walking Eagle as queen of the world by decree.
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/19098
So Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" is at work.
Not enough resources for Democracy. We'll just have to do away with that luxury altogether for awhile, eh folks?
This is the way the political elites now do away with democracy even while pretending to fight to make the world safe for democracy.
Meanwhile, the USA electorate is sleepwalking into the same kind of trouble. First, control will be implemented simply by promises to protect us from becoming like another Pakistan. That will work for awhile.
Eventually, the promises will be retracted, and dissenters will be blamed for the troubles.
As explained by George Carlin (language warning)
Great video.
Eventually, the promises will be retracted, and dissenters will be blamed for the troubles.
Beggar are you saying...
Ah Frank. Is there anything he didn't peg? Miss him so much. He would be having a field day with the way things are today...
RE: Sustainable growth is the key to our future
The title says it all. The concept of "Sustainable Development" has been morphed into "Sustainable Growth", which is not a solution. What we think of as "Growth" is the problem, not the solution. The Earth's many life support systems can not continue to function if human activities continue to spread over the landscape, replacing the natural ecological systems. The author's notion of sustainable development sounds like an easy, guilt free "self-sufficiency", implying that things can continue more or less as before. But, as the author points out, the Welsh are now consuming several times the quantity of resources compared to the average per capita amount for all the Earth's peoples. Sustainable Growth simply isn't possible.
E. Swanson
You hit the nail squarely.The growth has to end,and the search for the most effective become the goal.Scaring up that last 1/2 of a point to see just how much efficiency can be squeezed out of system/product
Sarc-on
Doctor says;
"I have some good news and some bad news.
The bad news is you have a brain tumor.
The good news is we believe we can maintain sustainable growth."
Sarc-off
I thought the punchline would be "The good news is it's a growth opportunity."
What about Sustainable Contraction? Not much historical experience to go by. While growth can be almost steady, contractions are usually lurching and destructive affairs, much as the housing bubble seemed almost graceful on the way up but, well, we'll see how it lands.
Much as we fantasize about economic management, the system we have mostly evolved with little planning. 'Negative growth' just isn't in the toolbox. Devised systems may not work.
I am amused at how people I talk to can't imagine housing prices at levels they were just a half decade ago despite the fact that their wages haven't moved significantly. The collective memory is so short and selective.
Imagine a sustainably contracting souffle. The best you might get is a sort of crepe
Difficulties from Negative Growth, I was watching "How stuff is made" on one of thoses Educational channels and I watched candie being made, Cookies, other food, other things.
MASS produced. A factory pumping out 100,000 lbs of candy a day with 3 employees running it.
Soda, Millions of cans per day I'm sure. I can remember a small local soda bottler when I was growing up and it had a machine that did one quart bottle at a time.
None could scale down. Not their processes, Not their equipment, Not their distribution systems.
Negative Growth will be VERY hard. Home Cottage industries would have to be multiply very quickly if even possible.
Samsara EXCELLENT point!! I love the "How It's Made" series but it's really "how it's made using as many machines as possible" lol. There's as little hand labor as possible, none of the processes could be scaled down to home or village scale, although it is interesting to see how things are made for us by our corporate-machine overlords....
And shows showing how things were done 100+ years ago aren't popular because it's too boring for the American populace.... Those are the ones I've like to see. I'd like to see one on making shoes, starting out with simple mocs you can wear around the house and working up to classic brogans.
Yep - power down would be an ideal solution. Doubt it'll happen in a mass planned way, but we can at least plan for it on an individual level to some extent.
Check out the 6 minute video on NYT titled Unlikely Victims of Housing Slump... this is where we're heading folks. And this is high end development. They say nothing about what's driving the homebuilders bankrupt - other than the 'general deterioration of the real estate market.' Sorry, don't know how to link to it. It's stories like this that will begin to drive home the "unsustainable growth" lesson. Real experiences from people who didn't see it coming. Oh my.
I was in Spirit Lake, Iowa over the New Years. Drive to the northeast corner of town and there is a four story tower with eight condos per floor right on the edge of East Lake Okoboji. A sign that says "10% discount for the first eight sold". They're listed at $399,000. This is the style of building without outdoor staircases (What were they thinking? Summer homes only?) and I walked all four floors ... the three units with lights on must have had timers, because they were empty and many doors weren't even hung yet.
The town has 5,500 people and there are five hundred vacant homes. This is after the rental conversions for the construction crews working the ethanol plant build in Superior, Iowa, and all of the guys doing the wind farms to the north and west of the city. This is a seasonal community with maybe 10% - 15% of homes being summer dwellings for the well off, but even so ... that vacancy rate is just too high.
Strange days, people, strange days. Everything we know is wrong and 2008 is going to show us just how wrong that can be.
Couple of weeks ago was talking to lawyer friend who is on city council of Jonestown TX, a city on the north end of Lake Travis (Austin). Asked about activity out there and he said the number of applications for building permits is way down. I recently closed on a sale of rental property and I thought we might not get the end of year closing date. Drove to the title company and asked about Dec 28. She flipped the calendar to that week - no appointments. Pick a time, any time. Hell, we closed a day earlier.
http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=5567a861813bf8e9a2a3da636567b0a366...
Thanks for the link...
While we're on the subject of real estate, both of my parents died recently and left me and my siblings a house with a lot next to it (our garden). We were a family of 11 so it's a large house. 5 bedrooms, 3.25 baths, full basement with dirt floor, a well and a closed-loop geothermal HVAC system. Large, mature pecan trees, carport and workshop. All this in a small agricultural/ranching town with rail, 35 miles west of San Antonio.
Right now I think it's listed for 186K, but as we all know real estate is going down and so will the price of this house. It was originally a 1 story house with really high ceilings. Later my dad dropped the ceilings, put in stairs and created 2 bedrooms and bath. Sloped