DrumBeat: January 27, 2008
Posted by Leanan on January 27, 2008 - 9:51am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Massive delays plague Middle East expansion drive
“Despite higher capital budgets, Middle East and North Africa energy investments appear to be loosing momentum,” said an Apicorp report. “Policy makers and project sponsors who, until recently, have been boasting ambitious investment plans, have voiced concerns about two critical issues that can seriously impede future development prospects.”On the one hand, project costs have been escalating unrelentingly and show no sign of abating. And problems in the international credit markets, which are looming larger, may also constrain capital flows into the region. Past reviews up to 2006-2010 had shown that rising capital investment was mostly matched with an increase in the number of projects.
The Falklands is sitting on deep-sea oil riches that could turn out to be worth a fortune.
Why Does Washington Want OPEC to Increase Supplies Despite the Decline in Price?
Amidst the decelerating US and global economies, Bush demanded that OPEC raise its production ceiling in its upcoming summit without openly setting the desired ceiling. The request was confirmed by US energy secretary Samuel Bodman during his visit to the Gulf states last week, still without announcing the desired increase in production. The American demand comes at a very unusual time as prices were already sliding before any of these statements were made and without the need for any political interference. The slide in prices is attributed to market elements dominated by the fear of a worsening and spreading economic slowdown. Interestingly, American officials have not linked highly oil prices to the current global economic crisis as if no relationship existed between high oil prices with this crisis. Nor did any prominent international economist link the slowdown in the US with high oil prices.
India: Full oil price burden cannot be passed on
Indicating a possible moderate hike in fuel rates, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said India cannot pass the full burden of runaway rise in crude prices to consumers who will be pushed to "misery" by such a move.
Lists of things worth saving from collapse and destruction can be made arbitrarily long: the wetlands, the symphony orchestra, the public library, the public transportation system, the solar sewage treatment plant... the list can go on and on. Saving something generally means preserving it in some intact, functional state, and often involves some fund-raising activities, and political lobbying to secure the much-needed funds. But in the US there is one category that never makes the list, and it is the most important one: ruins.
Zimbabwe: Getting Harder To Keep Children In School
"During our time education was free," said Mufundisi. "My parents could send me and my siblings to boarding schools on my father’s civil servant salary, but now I am in danger of not being able to do the same for my children."Schools opened in Zimbabwe on Jan. 15 and teachers in Harare have reported growing absenteeism. To make matters worse the country is facing acute shortages of food, hard currency and fuel in the economic meltdown that began in 2000.
A SEA change in the consumption of a resource that Americans take for granted may be in store — something cheap, plentiful, widely enjoyed and a part of daily life. And it isn’t oil.It’s meat.
South Africa: Maize Farmers Lobby to Supply Biofuel Industry
South African maize farmers are pushing hard to change a government decision to exclude their crops as feedstock for bioethanol, in view of food security concerns.
India: Govt to prioritise natural gas allocation
NEW DELHI: Fertiliser plants will have the first right over domestic natural gas, followed by petrochemical and existing power units if the government approves a draft natural gas utilisation policy.According to the draft prepared by the Petroleum Ministry, natural gas produced from fields like eastern offshore KG-D6 field of Reliance Industries or Panna/Mukta and Tapti field off Mumbai, would first be given to the fertiliser sector as existing gas-based fertiliser units were running at less than designed capacity because of shortage of gas.
Higher prices food for dismal thoughts
Until last week, I put this down to the burgeoning food demands of the fast-growing, heavily populated emerging economies of the East.That, and the needs of the bio-fuel industry.
But a thoughtful new paper from UK-based consultants Bidwells Agribusiness suggests something else is driving global food prices higher - namely an ever more pressing world-wide shortage of both fresh water and arable land.
Official worries fuel pipeline will draw insurgents
State Rep. Chente Quintanilla says head of Texas' homeland security is ignoring his concerns that a proposed Pemex pipeline could attract leftist Mexican insurgents to the U.S.Quintanilla, D-El Paso, worries that a proposed pipeline that would transport gasoline from stateside petroleum tanks directly through El Paso County into Juárez could be sabotaged by Mexican insurgents protesting Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex.
China's Snowstorms Trigger Alert, Coal-Shipment Boost
(Bloomberg) -- China issued a weather alert and boosted coal shipments as snowstorms were forecast to continue. At least 30 flights from Beijing airport were canceled and Xinhua News Agency reported about 150,000 rail passengers were stranded.
China feels new year chill as coal shortage bites
The shortage could not have come at a worse time for the ruling Communist Party. The leadership is anxious to ensure plentiful supplies of power for the most important holiday of the year, the Lunar New Year holiday,which begins on February 7, just as rising prices – particularly for food – are fuelling popular discontent.The transport ministry has roped in two state shipping giants to help move coal more swiftly to southern China. China Shipping Group has diverted six ships from its overseas shipping fleet to queue at the ports, while Cosco has diverted 11 vessels.
Marshall Islands faces fuel shortage
For the past two years, the Majuro utility has repeatedly faced the threat of fuel shortages because its debt coupled with rising prices and an inability to generate adequate revenues from electric customers has forced it to reduce orders of diesel to minimum amounts. The utility came close to running out of diesel on several occasions in 2006-2007, but in recent months its situation stabilized after it secured a $12 million loan from the Bank of Guam allowing it to pay off some of its debt and get fuel orders regularized.
Pakistan: Shutdown of CNG stations annoys Lahoris
LAHORE: The 24-hour shutdown of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) stations on Saturday caused mayhem for the Lahoris, as massive traffic jams were observed on the major roads of the city.
Mines may remain closed next week
GOLD and platinum mines in South Africa could remain closed until well into next week while industry and government discussed ways of reducing power, the minerals and energy department (DME) said.
Solution to Eskom and mine energy problems
I have reviewed technology that solves wet coal problems as it crushers the coal it dries it from plus 15% to 5%, uses less energy to crush material hence can replace or work in tandem with mines and Eskom and mines to crush their coal and other resources, can work on a generator and can continue crushing material using a generator thus reducing mine losses during this dark time, and may be worthy of a story from your investigative team.
China: Nuclear Energy is No Solution
Developing nuclear power is obviously one route away from fossil energy and hence can be seen as environmentally sound. Given the advanced safety technology, including the inherently safe fuel designs of Generation VI Pebble-bed reactor technology, there will be far less chance of a failing that would lead to a Chernobyl style disaster again.But the problem is how to quadruple China’s nuclear energy output in merely ten years: from approximately 10GW to 40GW during 2010-2020.
Why the Nuclear Energy Path is Suicidal
Nuclear energy is the poorest yielder in terms of investments and is also the unsafest. Its every step bristles with radioactive hazards while the solar and other forms of renewable energy are abundant producers, non-polluting, free from hazards, and are far cheaper in costs.The following are the reasons why the nuclear path must not be trodden at all.
KEPCO Eyes 1st Atomic Power Plant in Turkey
Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with ENKA, the largest construction firm in Turkey, in a move to win an order to build a nuclear power plant there, according to the South Korean state-run firm.
Lead the way in cutting carbon
MBAs in carbon management will become increasingly important as companies are forced to tackle climate change.
The artificial creation of, frankly, a rather dull chromosome, will not solve climate change or spark bioterrorism. Don't get so excited.
China Offers Plan to Clean Up Its Polluted Lakes
HONG KONG — The Chinese government unveiled a detailed plan on Tuesday to limit pollution in China’s lakes by 2010 and return them to their original state by 2030.The State Council, China’s cabinet, ordered strict regulation of the release of wastewater, the closing of heavily polluting factories near lakes, the improvement of sewage treatment facilities and strict limits on fish farms, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
Plan to Extend Shanghai Rail Line Stirs Middle Class to Protest
SHANGHAI — Yang Yang, a 29-year-old saleswoman, had never imagined herself in the role of advocate.But when she learned from her housing development’s electronic bulletin board of the city’s plans to extend Shanghai’s futuristic magnetic levitation, or maglev, train line within 30 yards of her house, she was angered about the effect on property values and began networking with other middle-class opponents both in her neighborhood and all along the planned train route.
It is 2016, and the Hillary Clinton or John McCain or Barack Obama administration is nearing the end of its second term. America has pulled out of Iraq but has about 20,000 troops in the independent state of Kurdistan, as well as warships anchored at Bahrain and an Air Force presence in Qatar. Afghanistan is stable; Iran is nuclear. China has absorbed Taiwan and is steadily increasing its naval presence around the Pacific Rim and, from the Pakistani port of Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea. The European Union has expanded to well over 30 members and has secure oil and gas flows from North Africa, Russia and the Caspian Sea, as well as substantial nuclear energy. America’s standing in the world remains in steady decline.
A New France in the New Middle East: Forget Glory
The American setback in Iraq, the winding down of the Bush presidency, a longing in the region for an alternative to American power, a turn inward by Britain’s new leaders and soaring prices for oil have created opportunities for Mr. Sarkozy.
Energy crisis challenges everyone
The energy crisis is bad news for all consumers and business and hits especially hard in states like New Hampshire that rely almost exclusively on fuels imported from outside the region. Everyone is affected, but the impacts are most serious for consumers with lower or fixed incomes and for small businesses that cannot increase their prices to compensate.
Cuban permaculturalist to tour Australia
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc in the early 1990s, Cuba lost access to the oil, fertilizers and virtually all trading partners that the small island nation depended upon to survive. Cuba faced economic collapse virtually overnight.Cuba, however, refused to give up on building a socialist society — maintaining, for example, its universal free healthcare and education — while it entered into the period of economic hardship known as the “Special Period”, and the United States tightened its decades-long blockade of the country.
In recent decades, global trade, sophisticated marketing, artificial insemination and the demands of agricultural economics have transformed the Holstein into the world’s predominant dairy breed. Indigenous animals like East Africa’s sinewy Ankole, the product of centuries of selection for traits adapted to harsh conditions, are struggling to compete with foreign imports bred for maximal production. This worries some scientists. The world’s food supply is increasingly dependent on a small and narrowing list of highly engineered breeds: the Holstein, the Large White pig and the Rhode Island Red and Leghorn chickens. There’s a risk that future diseases could ravage these homogeneous animal populations. Poor countries, which possess much of the world’s vanishing biodiversity, may also be discarding breeds that possess undiscovered genetic advantages. But farmers like Mugira say they can’t afford to wait for science. And so, on the African savanna, a competition for survival is underway.
OPEC To Keep Output Level At Feb Meeting - Gulf Delegate
DUBAI -(Dow Jones)- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to keep its crude oil output level unchanged when the group's 13 members meet in Vienna on Feb. 1, a senior OPEC delegate told Dow Jones Newswires on Sunday."I don't think an action will be taken during the meeting," the Gulf-based delegate said.
"During our last meeting in December, it was agreed that any decision will be taken in March, unless something major happens that warrants action during the extraordinary meeting that was set for February. But there is no need, the market situation is still where it was in December," he added.
Pan American Energy finds oil reserve in Argentina
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Pan American Energy has discovered an oil reserve in southern Argentina in one of the biggest such finds of recent years in the energy-hungry country, a provincial governor said on Saturday.
Open the Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas exploration
World oil supply and demand is complicated, however some bare facts are obvious; OPEC crude oil production spare capacity is barely existent, oil prices are hovering around $100 per barrel, the value of the dollar is falling, our country is on the edge of a recession, our President recently traveled to the Middle East with hat in hand asking for help and is now proposing a $150 billion tax break to avert a recession. Not good.We cannot drill our way into energy security, but we can delay shortages for several years while new sources of energy technologies are developed. It is time to lift the moratorium in the Eastern Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico for exploration and development.
Palin, lawmakers: Don't let Conoco derail pipeline plan
ConocoPhillips is like a kid on the playground who doesn't like the rules of the kickball game and is trying to woo kids away to create another competition it knows it can win.When it comes to who's going to build a natural gas pipeline in Alaska, the state's largest oil producer is engaged in a sort of bullying, though far more subtle and complex than anything you'd see on a playground. A few legislators seem to be suckers for Conoco's tactics, but let's hope Gov. Sarah Palin and the majority of lawmakers have the moxie and intelligence to resist the oil company's ploys.
Iraq's Oil Ministry changes procedures of selling Kirkuk oil
(MENAFN) A statement issued by the Iraqi Oil Ministry said that the ministry has changed the procedure of selling Kirkuk crude oil to Turkey's Ceyhan port, Iraq Directory reported.The statement also disclosed that the selling of Kirkuk crude oil by the Ceyhan port will be made on term contracts instead of auctions.
Future of Venezuelan oil company will have ripple effects far and wide
Since Chavez took power in 1999, oil production in Venezuela has declined by 28 percent, the company's debt has soared, corruption has flourished, foreign oil partners have pulled out, PDVSA's payroll has skyrocketed and the company has taken to hiring employees for their fealty to Chavez, not their expertise.PDVSA will continue to supply mountains of money to Chavez as long as oil prices remain high, said David Mares, a professor at the University of California at San Diego who co-authored an in-depth analysis of PDVSA last March.
"But PDVSA is not generating more money through better performance," Mares told The Herald. "PDVSA is generating this money in spite of its deteriorating performance. The threat to PDVSA will be when prices go down, and I don't mean collapse. When the oil market weakens, PDVSA won't be able to increase output to keep up income."
Bulgarian president reassures EU over gas project
SOFIA (AFP) - Bulgaria is still committed to the EU's Nabucco gas pipeline project despite signing a deal with Russia on its South Stream pipeline, President Georgy Parvanov said Sunday."Bulgaria will play an active role in the Nabucco project," Parvanov told reporters on the first anniversary of his second mandate as president.
Pakistan & Indian petroleum ministers discuss gas pipeline project
LONDON: Petroleum Ministers of India and Pakistan held discussions here on a multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline project involving the two countries and Iran, with both sides expressing their keenness to put it on stream.
Australia: Fuel crisis looms by 2015
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Brisbane spokesman Stuart McCarthy said yesterday it was time for governments to act, now that big businesses were speaking openly about the problem...."We need the Government to act. This will impact far sooner than climate change," Mr McCarthy said.
UK: Wind farms turn huge profit with help of subsidies
According to new industry figures, a typical 2 megawatt (2MW) turbine can now generate power worth £200,000 on the wholesale markets - plus another £300,000 of subsidy from taxpayers.Since such turbines cost around £2m to build and last for 20 or more years, it means they can pay for themselves in just 4-5 years and then produce nothing but profit.
The fashion industry has caught the eco bug and is blinding us with a barrage of ethical products. Is this really going to save the planet?
A founder of Greenpeace has done an about-face on nuclear power, and now says building new plants to help the United States overcome its dependence on foreign oil for its energy needs is the way to go.
Japan, Denmark set new climate goals
DAVOS, Switzerland - The United States, China and India must be part of the follow-up treaty to the Kyoto Protocol and agree to cut carbon emissions, Denmark's prime minister said Saturday. Japan's leader offered them a bold strategy for doing it.Climate change returned to the fore at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting, where Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda proposed a 2020 deadline for countries to boost their energy efficiency by 30 percent. He added that Japan would try to spread its high-quality environmental technology around the world.
Big business says addressing climate change 'rates very low on agenda'
Global warming ranks far down the concerns of the world's biggest companies, despite world leaders' hopes that they will pioneer solutions to the impending climate crisis, a startling survey will reveal this week.Nearly nine in 10 of them do not rate it as a priority, says the study, which canvassed more than 500 big businesses in Britain, the US, Germany, Japan, India and China. Nearly twice as many see climate change as imposing costs on their business as those who believe it presents an opportunity to make money. And the report's publishers believe that big business will concentrate even less on climate change as the world economy deteriorates.
Some one over at R Squared’s blog is insisting that gasoline demand was down in 2007 and also in 2008.
Here is the data from EIA Average annual weekly demand in barrels per day.
Y 2000 8433
Y 2001 8547
Y 2002 8764
Y 2003 8881
Y 2004 9067
Y 2005 9149
Y 2006 9282
Y 2007 9355
Y 2007 9090
Y 2008 9128
Also avg. demand is up for first three weeks of 2008.
Avg. demand was down only in the past week and that was no doubt due to whether.
Benny needs to tell us from where he gets his data.
Maybe he's confused. There have been a lot of articles about how demand is slowing. The increase is smaller than expected, given the increase in population, etc.
You know, kind of like the way Congress cuts spending. They don't actually reduce anything, they just cut future increases.
It should have read:
Avg. demand was down only in the past week (Y on Y) and that was no doubt due to whether.
[..] and that was no doubt due to whether.
whether?
Or "weather"?
Demand increase is slowing. or we are on a demand plateau...
Dipchip - I have been thinking about your propane comment from Thurs. Can you link the data you are using?
EIA clearly is indicating we are WAY below 2006. 15.6% as of the 18th. So, seasonal draws accounted for, something is significantly out of wack with propane...unless you are calling the EIA data out(sure there could be some error there...but 15.6% is a big error).
TIA
This is the data I used:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twipprvwall.xls
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a103600001m.htm
The problem is that the EIA can't even get its own figures straight. In some places, the EIA provides data that show gasoline consumption on the increase. In other places, the same organization provides data that show gasoline consumption on the decline.
All data sources on oil and gas production, inventories and consumption are terrible, and most people don't seem to realize this. There aren't any reliable sources of information at this time.
And the concept of "demand" is grossly misunderstood by most people. If "demand" were really falling off, as "Benny" suggests (I don't read that blog, but I'll take your word for it), prices wouldn't be rising. A 2% drop in demand would cause more than a 30% decline in price. Prices are rising because there is increased competition for supply.
Most people would understand the concept of demand better if we used the term "competition" instead. There is more competition for the available supply now. The price shows this. Not all of the people competing for the available supply are going to receive supply, because there isn't enough supply for all of them. Some of them will get priced out, so the product supplied to them can go into decline even as "demand" goes up.
People like "Benny" want to believe that we are rapidly moving to increased efficiency and that this will take care of prices. There is some movement toward efficiency, but it's terribly slow. If we were getting more efficient at a decent pace, we wouldn't be seeing the problems with the economy that we're seeing.
Another factor in the price rise of the past year is that supply is on the decline. Even if production is flat (and we don't really know what production is, because we don't have reliable data) supply is actually in decline, because it is taking more oil to get the same production. But that factor in itself probably hasn't changed quickly enough to produce the magnitude of the price change we've seen.
I have never used those numbers because I don't know what the hell they mean.
If you divide those numbers by 42 it only amounts to about 1.5 million barrels per day
If they mean barrels per month it is also about 2 million per day. Perhaps someone can explain it to this slow mind.
One of the conclusions I've come to since browsing TOD is that the data (particuarly short-term data) on energy production, inventories, and consumption are not to be totally trusted. As I undertand it, much of this data is self-reported with little or no third-party auditing. I'm not neccesarily saying that the parties reporting the data are being deliberately misleading, only that when you see a production number like 3, 246, 700 bbls, you should take the last five digits with a big grain of salt.
Though I have no way of proving it, I strongly suspect that the margin of error in the data is far greater than many would like to admit and that many of the conclusions regarding small increases or decrease in production or inventories are probably unjustified as they fall close to or within that margin of error.
And saying that's the only data we've got so we have to work with it only makes things worse. If you have poor data, it's sometime best not to even attempt an analysis, as the results will give an illusion of certainty that is not justified. Over the long term, however, mnay of these errors probably cancel out, but it's in the short term where the numbers can get dodgy.
Excellent.
From MonteQuest at PO:
"
"Jevon's Paradox ... It says that increased efficiency leads to greater use of a resource.
Conservation leads to increased use by lowering the price.
If a community conserves, those outside it will consume the savings while those inside will see their jobs disappear as the consumption that employed them disappears.
We have to grow under our economic system or the house of cards falls.
Individuals can see immediate economic benefit until someone else within their community conserves what they make or do for a living."
Tragedy of the Commons
My post on US Petroleum Supply is talking about some of these same issues.
This is a graph of what I call "US Gasoline Supplied" from that post. Some would call this gasoline demand, since it is what people purchased. Clearly there the amount of gasoline supplied / used has not risen as fast in the past three years as it did previously.
The post gives more information for all oil products in total, and for distillate and other products.
"eastern planing area" that would be like....................uh,....florida ?
re: open gom to drilling
Why wait around and save any oil in the GOM for future generations? Lets use it all now. We need to invade Venesuela, keep our SUVs full, keep the 18 wheelers on the move to Swell Marts, continue commuting 140 miles to our jobs that pay peanuts (or cashews if you are lucky), and continue BAU.
Since the kids of today are getting fine educations, insured by government testing, they will be lots smarter than we are and will easily find alternative fuel sources that us dimwits have yet to think of.
Once every last drop of oil in the US and its territorial waters are used then we can invade other countries for their oil...In certainty that we have no more and therefore, no choice but to take theirs. Why should we let those pesky natives sit on our oil and use it foolishly?
This is a no-brainer and will fit nicely with the rest of the current administrations agenda.
I guess it is fashionable that people keep saying "the current administration" like it is really different from previous administrations. Like anyone so far has actually done anything to address the energy problems, or any of the other problems we face. In 1948 US written policy was established which was echoed by Jimmy Carter. "We will use force to maintain oil supplies from the middle east". Other than a couple of wackos like those of us who frequent sites like this, the US public does not want us to change. As prices increase, they will en mass DEMAND that we drill in the eastern GOM, off the Atlantic coast, off the Pacific coast, in ANWR, and anywhere else oil or gas might be.
In 1999 a poll in the San Francisco bay area found that only 23% of the respondents were in favor of nuclear power to increase electricity generation. Three months later, same poll, same geographic area, 57% were in favor. Why? Because they were then two months into the blackouts. When it is your ox thats being gored your attitudes will change. I think it was Charles Colson, Nixon's "hatchet man", who said " When you got em by the balls their hearts and minds will follow." Personally, I don't see anyone running today who will address these issues either. We are on the downward slope, and I'm not talking about Hubbert's curve.
ESPECIALLY the rich liberals in the SF area do not want to cut back. They'll never give up their high-end Volvos, their illegal-immigrant nannies, their exotic foods imported from all over the globe. Tahiti Water, a brand of bottled water imported from Tahiti, is the type of product they like. The more exotic and more traveled a foodstuff, the more they like it. They're very good at talking about others cutting back, but the reaction to the idea that they should lead the way by cutting back is uniform horror.
Jeez, Fleam, do you think you could have worked a few more stereotypes in there?
It's Fiji water, btw, and it is everywhere in the US I've been. What makes you think it is more popular with people from SF, or with liberals, than anyone else?
It's Fiji water, more popular with people
At $5 a bottle in the theater - it better be damn good water.
I guess that might be the point. In so many ways, the "current administration" started with FDR at the latest -- some might extend that back to Teddy Roosevelt.
For better or worse, each administration has dovetailed into the previous, and the American public has for the most part accepted the supposed fact that the world was an American oyster. The premises on which this worldview was based have begun to seem a little thin. I personally think the evolution is quite exciting, and filled with promise. There remains the possibility that things will spiral into chaos or even nuclear disaster -- I believe not. Cooler heads will ultimately prevail, now as in the past.
You know, I felt like the Clinton administration showed that it didn't matter who the president was. And then, we got GW Bush. It matters.
Amen. It matters who the President is.
For many years the state of Florida has fought offshore oil exploration/drilling. There are agreements with the feds and laws to prevent it, however there is no doubt in my mind that when shortages start to appear there will be a move to explore for energy resources off the Florida coast, even among those in Florida, because there are millions of people who want to drive everywhere, public transit is a joke, they will want the oil produced. Especially if the drilling is only on the gulf coast side, the state government is always in one budget crises or another big checks from big oil will start to look good, they will be able to keep building up the road networks and all that goes with big projects. Also those who live inland and those on the Atlantic coast will be enticed by the all mighty dollar and will toss the gulf coasters under the bus for tax rebates and dividend checks.
That is if there is oil etc. and if there are enough rigs and people to develop these resources,
www.childfree.net
"The rich get richer and the poor get children"
I used to think this was just a saying until I travelled the world and saw it with my own eyes. Pay heed to it.
--
Another fringer on TOD.
Britain 'facing energy shortfall'
The article reports:
But the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), believes Inenco is presenting a worst-case scenario.
Building the plants is fine but aren't we currently using coal because of lack of availability of gas in the UK? I live within two miles of a gas power station only a few years old. And yet in the past two years I could probably count on my fingers the number of times it has been generating. What planet are these people living on? I can't see the UK closing this gap and expect the lights starting to dim maybe permanently in the next 5 years.
Canada and the USA will face a gas crunch by 2015 so there will be a lot of competition for LNG. Qatar and Algeria cannot possibly service the EU and North America. The only real choice the UK has is to speed up the building of the new nuclear power plants. Instead of 2020 they should target 2015.
When the dash for gas was made it was pointed out it would put our energy future in the hands of Russia and Algeria. It caused us te deplete the North Sea quickly, which we will pay for, as it should have been saved for the coming crunch. We need to start building the nuclear stations as soon as possible.
''I could probably count on my fingers the number of times it has been generating. ''
Maybe it is an auxilliary plant for peak demand? (gas can fire up and generate quickly).
As for building more gas fired stations: Fine in theory, but where does the gas come from?
If we build more gas fired stations, we will need considerably more strategic gas storage facilities than we presently enjoy.
Gas power stations would be a quick fix, but only if access to gas was secure.
You want secure?
Then it is NUKES. Lots of luvverly NUKES
Today it is only powered up for peak demand. Notably when we have cold spells, just before Christmas was one such period and demand was very strong. This was certainly not the situation 4 to 5 years ago when the facility was regularly in operation.
Gas is no answer and what is so suprising that the above organisations can so easily suggest it is.
Not without breeder reactors. Worldwide demand for Uranium will outstrip supply in 2008, and that's without building any new ones (http://www.moneyweek.com/file/25277/seven-reasons-the-uranium-price-will...). Any world-wide push for new reactors will push U prices through the roof.
Of course maybe Uranium supply can be pushed upwards indefinitely, just like CERA says oil can.
Yes, uranium supply can be increased indefinitely, but oil can't. Uranium obey's Lasky's Law, with an arithmetic decrease in ore quality matched by a geometric increase in ore quanitity. Shale oil also obeys Lasky's Law because it is an oil ore.
Think of oil as being like placer gold or tin. When you find placer gold, that's all their is. You dredge and it's gone. When you find rock gold, the lower the grade, the bigger the tonnage by far. Oil fields are sort of like upside down placers, the place where the shale was buried deep enough to make oil but not deep enough to be burnt to gas and leak away.
Since it's so easy to prospect for uranium with a geiger counter or equivalent, we know where the low grade prospects are. Like the uranium shales of Sweden and the uranium phosphates of pretty much everywere. We can mine and process the low grade uranium shales in breeder reactors much more cheaply than anything we haven't tapped yet. They are the future of baseload power.
Solar, wind, and hydro have their place at about 20% of demand each, but it's nukes after that. Coal and gas are cheaper only if you don't count CO2 pollution.
Even without charging for CO2 nuclear should be cheaper than coal if coal was charged for it's other emissions and to clean up it's wastes.
Lost in the mix of people's understandable concerns about nuclear energy - because it is only right that people should be asking if it is safe and what happens to the wastes - is the enormous impact of coal, causing huge numbers of deaths a year, emitting vast amounts of pollutants (including scattering uranium out of the chimney!), aside from the CO2.
Gas is much better in all respects, although CO2 is a concern, but security of supply and resource depletion is a major issue there.
Renewables are the hope for the long term future, but the technologies are pretty immature.
Wind turbines will eat up vast resources in metal and so on to construct, far more than a nuclear program, and without expensive and unproven storage will not even provide reliable power.
Although it is very reasonable for people to question safety and waste issues, when you look at the actual facts they are relatively small problems.
Proliferation - anyone who thinks that the West can stop other nations from developing nuclear weapons if they want them is living in the past.
Regardless of what happens about civil nuclear power, any nation which wants nuclear weapons will be able to develop them.
It is not the 1940's - the knowledge is out there, and that genii won't go back in the bottle.
Waste- after reprocessing the entire waste form the last many decades of powering most electricity in France occupies an area of around 3 basketball courts.
Safety - no proven deaths in the west, against umpteen from coal.
Don't build reactors like Chernobyl, absolutely without containment.
Even with the worst possible management, and without having any form of containment, the proven death toll from Chernobyl is around 100 according to the World Health Organisation.
Greenpeace says differently, but then it is difficult to conceive of their making any statements in favour of nuclear power whatever the circumstances. Many prominent figures have left the organisation for this reason.
wkwillis has already dealt with resource issues in a very able post to which this responds.
Nuclear is the cheapest, safest, most affordable solution to energy needs for the first half of the 21st century.
[renewable] and without expensive and unproven storage will not even provide reliable power.
Simply wrong. Pumped storage is a completely mature technology with quite reasonable costs (costs are site specific of course).
Nuclear is AMONG the cheapest, safest, most affordable solutions to energy needs for the second quarter of the 21st century.
Nuclear is slow to market and costs for new nukes are unknown in many nations. The US Dept. of Energy estimates that, best case, the USA has the skilled manpower to build eight new nukes in ten years. The situation in Europe cannot be much better (France is perhaps an exception since they finished the last 4 N4 nukes only a decade ago).
Alan
Noted and retracted for the proven capability of pumped storage, Alan.
I was thinking of some of the larger schemes out there, to do things like build energy islands in the North sea, where wind would power pumping in an artificial lagoon - although certainly technically feasible, maintenance in that environment could be a nightmare, and so could construction costs.
I wrote in a fairly condensed form, and should have been more specific.
Sure you can store a few hours worth of energy, but the problem is specifically wind intermittency, and that is the major renewable resource we are talking about at the moment, can have far greater intermittency, with periods of low wind for substantial periods of time.
Denmark uses the vast hydroelectric resources of Scandanavia to even things out, but that is a resource on an altogether different scale to any economic proposal for new construction of pumped storage.
You are really getting into the realms of supergrids to balance things, and whilst I am not against proposals to develop them, we are talking about way after 2020.
I should make it clear that I am not against wind turbine power, but am in favour of making sure that we don't proceed regardless of cost, and try to run before we can walk.
I agree that it will be challenging to ramp up nuclear fast, and that a vigorous program of conservation is needed to help.
That in my view would give far better value for money than too extensive a wind power program at this stage, but that is specific to the UK and in a lot of areas of the States, it seems to me that a much greater development of wind power would be both sensible and cost-effective.