DrumBeat: February 16, 2008
Posted by Leanan on February 16, 2008 - 10:08am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Although pinched by costs, fans flock to Daytona
"It [the price of gas] affects our fans just like it affects everyone else," said Jim Hunter, longtime NASCAR vice president. "Some of our hard-core old-line fans used to go to six-eight races a year, but back then hotels didn't charge seven-day minimums, track prices were half of what they are now, and gas was a lot cheaper. Now I hear those same people say, 'I'll just go to my favorite few races, and I'll watch the rest on television.'"Hunter, like many around the sport, said he thinks any drop in attendance will not be major, even with an economic downturn. Hunter was involved with NASCAR in the early '70s during a fuel shortage when NASCAR shortened races, encouraged fans to carpool and even helped service stations near tracks save fuel for race fans to come and go.
CERA: Action needed to avoid oil crisis, Hess chief says
HOUSTON -- Oil companies, oil-producing countries, and consumers need to act now to avoid the oil crisis that is coming within the next 10 years, said John B. Hess, chairman and chief executive of Hess Corp."It is not only a matter of demand. It is not only a matter of supply…. We need to take steps on both fronts, and we need to start today," Hess told an overflow crowd Feb. 12 at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates' annual energy conference in Houston.
Strategy change urged in Mexico
MONTERREY, Mexico — In 1978, Mexican President José López Portillo boldly proclaimed the country's vast new oil resources meant a farewell to poverty.The nation would have to "administer abundance," he said.
López Portillo missed his chance, notoriously spending Mexico into its economic crisis of 1982 while skimming off a presidential share for a lavish retirement.
Five presidents and two more economic crises later, the opportunity has been squandered. Cantarell, the giant Gulf of Mexico oil field that has padded pockets and subsidized Mexico's government for a generation, is in rapid decline.
Mexico Business Picks Up For Oil-Service Companies
MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- In Mexico the oil services business is picking up as state-run Petroleos Mexicanos boosts spending in an attempt to halt faltering production.
Srak to miss Empty Quarter well drilling target
The South Rub al-Khali (Srak) exploration company expects to complete drilling on only one more well in the Rub al-Khali (Empty Quarter) before its contract with Saudi Aramco expires in January 2009.This means several planned wells will not be drilled, raising further doubt over Riyadh's search for gas in the region.
Central Asia’s Poorest States in Crisis
After a freezing winter marked by severe energy shortages, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan fear spring could bring food shortages as well.
Kazakhstan Suspends Fuel Oil Exports to Kyrgyzstan
A shortage of Kazakhstan's energy resources is the reason behind the suspension of fuel oil supplies to Kyrgyzstan, the press service of Elektricheskiye Stantsii [Electric Stations] open joint-stock company has told the Regnum news agency correspondent.
Nepal: Fuel crisis spawns protests
Irked consumers took out a rally in localities like Kalanki, Chabahil, Koteshwor and Jorpati early on Friday, chanting slogans against the government and Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) and demanding fuel to cook food and run vehicles.Sporadic rallies were also organized within city centers like Nagpokhari. But these were scattered through police interventions, said Sarvendra Khanal, chief of Metropolitan Police, Kathmandu.
Bhaktapur was worst hit by the protests, as agitating tractor operators blocked the major roads to vent their ire against the fuel shortage.
Bangaldesh: Local commodity market going through supply shortage
Oil prices have gone up by more than 30 percent in the last 5 months. We are paying more foreign currency to import the same volume of oil due to increased prices. This increase in oil price has not been passed on to the consumers; rather the government, in the form of subsidy, has absorbed it. How long and how much price increase the government would absorb that remains a pertinent question, given the high amount of debt papers being issued to the financial market to fund Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation's balance sheet. However, prices have started to come down recently it has already dropped to $ 88 per barrel from a high of $100, mostly due to US recession expectation among the market participants. Even though many economists are talking about $75 level for oil price, I think it's too early to say. If US economy goes through a “V” shaped recovery because of the aggressive rate cut and giant fiscal stimulus package, we will not have to wait a long time to see the oil price rising again. Increase in fuel price, will of course keep on affecting shipment cost, as well as, domestic movements of commodities and thereby commodity prices.
Soaring propane bills spur furor
January heating bills that topped $500 for some Payson homeowners have spurred a political furor, with homeowner protests and a flashpoint debate in the mayor's race.The big January propane bills issued by SemStream reflect both a global energy shortage and the fine print in the Arizona Corporation Commission's approval of the company's purchase of Payson's unique underground propane system last year, say officials.
How Big Oil Could Help on Climate Change in Iraq
These hot spots, detected from 500 miles into space, were not sparked by bombings or by gunfire on the war-torn ground. They are neither flames of insurgency nor of combat. This is a snapshot of energy waste and the pointless release of millions of tons of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.This image shows the flaring, or burning, of natural gas that is brought to the surface as the Iraqis extract oil. There's no way to get the oil out without releasing this "associated" gas. Flaring is the cheap and dirty way to get rid of this combustible fuel when there are no pipelines, gas-fired power plants, or export terminals nearby.
It's time for oil price controls
History repeats again! Oil companies have released staggering earnings. When crude oil costs rise, it drags fertilizer, feed costs, food, and meat prices with it. Plastics, homes, cars, and heating prices rise. Amidst all this, oil companies prosper suspiciously.How is it that the cost of a raw material (crude oil) rises, people use less of the finished product (gasoline, diesel) by driving less, yet oil companies make increased profits? The operative word here is "profit," not revenue.
Oil swings widely on conflicting data
In recent days, many analysts have questioned oil's price strength in the face of falling demand."It makes no sense," said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J., who suggested speculators may be behind the recent rise. "I think it's financial and it's speculative."
Energy independence in US: don’t bet on it
US President George W. Bush shocked world energy producers in 2006 when he pledged to slash America’s reliance on Middle East oil. But today one of every two barrels of oil consumed in the United States still comes from foreign suppliers like Saudi Arabia, and that picture is not likely to change much through 2030.
Feds curious about Alaska pipeline problems
Federal regulators say they are looking into an equipment malfunction at the trans-Alaska pipeline, the latest setback for a project to automate a conduit that is crucial to West Coast oil needs.
Norway: Tensions rise between fishing and oil industries
A feverish quest for new sources of oil, fuelled by high oil prices, is sparking territorial battles between Norwegian fishing interests and oil exploration firms searching for new reserves in the North and Norwegian seas.Skirmishes have been taking place for months off the coast of Norway, as fishing vessels and seismic vessels try to work in the same areas. Last year, three fishing boats tried to prevent a seismic vessel from conducting oil exploration in the seas off Vesterålen.
Rosneft to Spend 600 Billion Rubles to Boost Siberian Output
(Bloomberg) -- OAO Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, plans to spend as much as 600 billion rubles ($24.4 billion) through 2020 to boost oil production in eastern Siberia, Chief Executive Officer Sergei Bogdanchikov said.The state-owned company will spend 50 billion rubles this year and 600 billion rubles over the 12-year period as it seeks to raise annual oil output to 170 million tons by 2020, Bogdanchikov said today at a conference in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia. The company produced 102 million tons of oil last year.
Exxon Mobil extends trend of increasing its reserves
Exxon Mobil Corp. said Friday it added 1.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent to its proved reserves last year, extending a positive trend of replacing more barrels than it produced.The added reserves for the world's largest publicly traded oil company totaled 101 percent of its 2007 output.
South Korea: Iran is stable oil supplier
LONDON (IranMania) - Chairwoman of Presidential Transition Committee, Lee Kyung-sook, says Iran is the most reliable supplier of oil to South Korea, PressTV reported.
Iran Parliament Approves $3 Billion Fuel Import Budget
TEHRAN (AFP)--Iran's parliament on Saturday approved a $3 billion spending plan to fund diesel and petrol imports during the next Iranian year, the official IRNA news agency reported.
Iran should cut dependency on oil: Haddad-Adel
LONDON (IranMania) - Iran's Parliament speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel warns against the reliance of national budget on oil revenues, urging the need for its optimal spending, PressTV reported.One of the problems with our budget is its heavy dependence on oil, Haddad-Adel told reporters on Thursday.
Venezuela Rips Exxon, Settles With ENI
Venezuela has settled a spat with one oil giant while continuing to heap invective on another.
Venezuela requests help from U.S. senator
Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S. has asked Sen. Richard Lugar to press Exxon Mobil Corp. to drop legal measures that have frozen $12 billion in assets worldwide."Through tactics that can only be compared with the very discredited strategy of pre-emptive war, Exxon Mobil has clearly violated the terms of the arbitration process," Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S., said in a letter to the Indiana Republican that was released by the embassy Friday. Lugar is the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
If Venezuela's strongman cut off oil exports to the United States, the first victim would be his regime.
AEP CEO sees crisis without more coal plants
HOUSTON (Reuters) - The United States faces an electricity crisis if it eschews coal-fired power plants on its way to a low-carbon economy, said the chief executive of American Electric Power, one of the nation's biggest utilities.Michael Morris of AEP said that he fears the United States will rely on natural gas plants too heavily if it drastically cuts burning coal to make electricity.
...Within five years to a decade, heavy industrial users will face involuntary power cuts unless more coal plants that emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) come on line, said Morris, speaking to energy executives at the week-long CERA conference in Houston.
Time is up for coal: environmental analyst
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States should leave its estimated 200 years' supply of coal in the ground and invest in wind farms and solar technology for its power-generating needs, a leading environmental analyst said on Thursday.Wall Street, politicians and public opinion have all turned so dramatically against coal in the last year over climate concerns that it is probably "the beginning of the end of the coal industry," said Lester Brown.
Vietnam to slash coal exports by a third in 2008
HANOI (Reuters) - Vietnam, a key coal supplier to Japan and China, will slash coal exports this year by more than 32 percent to about 22 million tonnes to save more for new power plants at home, a government official said on Friday.
Thailand worries over food shortages amid palm oil debate
BANGKOK (Thomson Financial) - Thailand has started requiring that all its diesel fuel include a component made from palm oil, a move that could reduce costly energy imports but is driving up prices for the commodity, experts say.
US risks trade dispute with Canada on fuel
Environmental restrictions on the US government’s purchases of fuel could leave it vulnerable to a trade dispute with Canada and other exporters of oil extracted from hard-to-reach deposits.The new rules prohibit the US federal government from buying fuels that emit more greenhouse gas during their production and use than conventional petroleum-based fuel.
The issue is the latest in a string of potential and actual disputes that will test the ability of the rules of the world trading system to regulate highly contentious global warming issues.
Australia: Meet the man to fix petrol price problems
AUSTRALIA'S first Petrol Commissioner was appointed yesterday to force oil companies into reining in their controversial pricing behaviour.
Shadow of terrorism looms over oil industry
The first hint of activity was the soft whut-whut of rotor blades, then suddenly a military helicopter, which had approached flying so low it almost skimmed the tops of the waves, rose up by the side of the platform. Ropes were tossed out and seconds later black-clad soldiers abseiled on to the landing deck, then charged down into the platform proper.The spectators – oil workers who had slipped out unannounced – would later learn that the deployment was phase two in the battle against any terrorists potentially on the platform. Members of the Special Boat Service, the amphibious equivalent of the SAS, had already clambered up the platform's concrete leg and secured the control room where "bombs" were primed and ready to blow.
The credit crunch has added a new significance to the wealth amassed in the oil kingdoms of the Middle East. While western bankers count the cost of a reckless spending spree, assets that comply with Islam's ban on the receipt of interest are growing at about 15% a year and may hit $1000bn by 2010, experts say. A quadrupling of oil prices since 2002 has inundated Arab and Islamic lenders with billions of dollars that are now looking for a home, and financial centres from Tokyo to London are clamouring for a piece of the action.
Oil, arms and a marriage of convenience
China's involvement in Sudan stretches back more than a decade and has snowballed to the extent that it now supplies nearly a quarter of the African country's imports and accounts for about 70% of its exports, mostly oil.But despite growing global criticism of Chinese blank cheques written to the regime in Khartoum, Beijing has shifted its policy in the past 18 months. Though President Hu Jintao announced a $13m interest-free loan for a new palace for his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir, and cancelled debt worth $70m during a visit to Sudan in February last year, his government publicly called for a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement in Darfur.
Canada's oil sands a massive disaster - green group
OTTAWA – Canada's massive oil sands are ”the most destructive project on earth” and the federal government must intervene to clean up the mess, a leading green group said Friday.
Saad al-Shuwaib, chief executive of state Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC), has made some progress in reforming Kuwait's energy industry and advancing major projects, especially downstream, since taking the reins six months ago with a promise of revamping the sector. The delayed Al-Zour refinery is moving ahead, KPC's subsidiaries are being restructured, and a new international advisory board is in place. Now, al-Shuwaib told Energy Compass in Kuwait this week, a breakthrough should come soon in upstream negotiations with international oil companies -- a development desperately needed to deliver long-term expansion.
Transocean exits shallow-water Gulf business
Transocean Inc. has agreed to sell three of its jackup rigs and equipment to Hercules Offshore Inc. for $320 million.The Houston offshore drilling contractor said the move marks its exit from the shallow-water area of the Gulf of Mexico.
...Also on Friday, the company contracted with Simmons Cos. International to sell two semisubmersible rigs.
Once you start, where does the stampede of moralism stop?
So let me get this straight: we are supposed to boycott or protest against the 2008 Beijing Olympics, because the Chinese Government buys oil from the Sudanese regime engaged in a civil war in Darfur. I carry no torch for the Chinese authorities, but once you fire the starter's pistol for such a stampede of moralism, where does it stop?Should the 1908 Olympics have been held in London? After all, millions were toiling under the yoke of the British Empire and Parliament had refused to allow Ireland Home Rule, leading to a boycott of the Games by the Irish team.
Global warming could invite sharks to Antarctica: biologists
BOSTON, Massachusetts (AFP) - Global warming could bring ferocious sharks to Antarctic waters, threatening a unique marine life shielded from predators by frigid conditions for millions of years, biologists warn.
Agency urges US to use pricing to fight energy woes
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The International Energy Agency on Friday called on the United States to do more to curb energy use and fight global warming, saying pricing was the best way to curb demand.
China: rich 'culprits' on climate change
UNITED NATIONS - Negotiations on a new treaty to fight global warming will fail if rich nations are not treated as "culprits" and developing countries as "victims," China's top climate envoy said.The whole world must take action to confront climate change, but developed countries have a "historical responsibility" to do much more because their unrestrained emissions in the past century are responsible for global warming, said Ambassador Yu Qingtai.



I have been devouring the comments and reports of David Walker, the GAO, over the last few years as he was one of the only ones in government who tells it like it is.
This is not a good sign.
"Government Accountability Chief Resigns"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/15/AR200802...
souperman-
BushCo will not be in a hurry to make this appointment, and the selection will be in the spirit of this regime, the least qualified they can find.
"Government Accountability" under BushCo during the time the congress and he white house were
both in rethglican hands, is one of the greatest oxymoron's of all time. It has not improved much with the current crop of dem's controlling congress.
No one said late stage capitalism would be fun, but you must admit, the absurdity of the situation does occasionally bring a smile.
If Government Statistics are going the way of the dinosaur why will we need a GAO?
The Federal Government has learned an important lesson from the Pentagon. The GAO has attempted, unsuccessfully, to audit the Pentagon for as long as I can remember. Each year the GAO staff walks away from the Pentagon...shaking their collective heads...and muttering that the books are such a mess that they cannot conduct an audit.
Hey, if it works for the Pentagon why not for the entire government?
if memory serves, the GAO returns $5 to the government for every $1 they are budgeted ... and thusly they're a perennial favorite target for cost conscious Congresscritters.
Every time I have heard David walker present he has talked about his children.
I don't think we have heard the last of him.
Who ever is in charge after TSHT they would be wise to include this man at the very least in some advisory position.
P.S. I do not have high reguard for CPAs in general but this guy is very human.
Federal Lab Says It Can Harvest Fuel From Air (With a Catch)
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/federal-lab-says-it-can-har...
It's H2CAR all over again. See my comments here and here.
Re: Agency urges US to use pricing to fight energy woes
The IEA says the U.S. needs higher prices for transport fuel in order to encourage increased efficiency and lower emissions of CO2. Don't they know that the U.S. depends on low cost fuel? And, how will our democracy be able to accomplish this highly desirable goal? Recall How much trouble Bill Clinton went thru to get a 4.3 cent increase in the gasoline tax. That is a far cry from the tax level needed of about $2 per gallon today, a tax increase which would be impossible to impose on voting citizens in the U.S. So, the Saudi's will have to do it for us...
E. Swanson
The market will impose a high enough price to force people to conserve whether they like it or not. At least this way they can't bitch it is all a government conspiracy to deprive them of their "freedom".
You're right, ppl will complain that it's a conspiracy of "Big Oil" or "them Arabs" instead.
'If It's Raining In Brazil, Buy Starbucks'...Some interesting comments from a professor of economics at U Cal and a book with the amusing title above. Occasionally I watch Squeek Blab, especially if they have some one on the show that calls em like he/she sees em. Why does Squeek Blab devote so much time to stock markets and so little time to commodities and the bond markets?
I think the good professor should write another book entitled 'Stock Traders Are From Venus, Bond Traders Are From Mars'...Anywho, the good proff has an interesting take on why the Fed is having so little effect on the US economy with their continuing prime rate cuts and other mechinations along with the following quote which most of us have heard before (or, something similar):
'I might note here that there is no world oil price shock in progress. It is a US oil price shock. As the dollar has fallen against the euro, Europeans are actually paying about the equivalent of $50 a barrel oil.'
And the proff continues: 'The Fed's conundrum is this: every time it cuts short-term rates, it hopes that the bond market will react collectively by pushing down long-term yields. When the Fed is effective in influencing the long end of the yield curve, it has its only chance of stimulating consumption and investment. The problem now is that the bond market is not cooperating.' Why isnt the bond market cooperating? Well, thats the interesting bit. Its a good read but we are exhorted to post in moderation...moderation is dependent on, among other things...The phase of the moon, lack of extracarricular activities, threat of a visit by inlaws...Or, all manner of other unknowable unknowns to mere mortals... :)
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2008/0211.html
Holy mackerel!! Phil Flynn, the most quoted oil trader this side of Cantarel is now starting to at least wonder about the possibility of peak oil. This is from his daily commentary that ran yesterday:
This guy is all over CNBC, Fox Business, and is by far the most quoted oil trader in newspaper stories. In the past he has dismissed peak oil worriers as a joke. If he starts to talk about peak oil with the megaphone he has, how long until peak oil is on the front cover of Time magazine?
How many POers think oil prices will decline this year? We have recession and a boost from megaprojects in 2008. I'm really not sure what will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if oil dropped to say $70-$80 sometime during the year.
Jim Puplava discusses resources limits in Hour #3 this morning. He is not anticipating lower energy prices: www.financialsense.com
My take on the issue, as ever, is net export capacity. For example, if the US were the sole source of crude oil for the world, crude oil production would have increased from 1945 to 1970, but net oil exports would have ceased in the Forties.
From Leanan:
"
Vietnam to slash coal exports by a third in 2008
HANOI (Reuters) - Vietnam, a key coal supplier to Japan and China, will slash coal exports this year by more than 32 percent to about 22 million tonnes to save more for new power plants at home, a government official said on Friday."
From Arkansas:
McGowan Farms will grow zero rice this year.
Reason.
Fertilizer too costly.
ELM comes to coal. We could really use an in-depth analysis of coal export markets here at TOD.
That last note is interesting. CBOT has rice above $16 and all guesses are it's only going higher. How much have your costs gone up? How constrained are you from betting on good prices for your crop? How many other producers are in positions similar to yours? Your production is a known zero if you don't plant, any guess at all what sort of declines we may be seeing globally/
Let me try again. How high a price would you need locked in to justify an outlay now for fertilizer? Are there other producers who can pick up slack who will have lower costs?
As long as I can remember farmers go on and on over costs and prices and then they go ahead and plant and hope for the best. If you really just can't plant it sounds like a very big story to me.
Hey, OH,
Yes. We've had rice since 1976.
Rice lost out to cotton, soy. The return on these 2 just
out weighs the former. We sell in advance.
Fertilizer was just the tipping point.
BTW- We need $20 the bushel on wheat to make up for destroyed crop rotation.
From Delta Farm Press:
During its annual meeting in Memphis, Tenn., Council Chairman John Pucheu cited a 14-point package that made improvements in the cotton-marketing loan as one of the best features of the new farm bill. That — and one providing assistance to the U.S. textile industry — appear to have been left out of the proposal.
The American Soybean Association said the Peterson-Goodlatte plan “reversed the limited progress ASA achieved in the House bill to provide more equitable income support to soybeans and eliminates funding to make U.S. biodiesel producers competitive with imported biodiesel.”
The National Corn Growers Association, which has been working since the last farm bill to try to pass an improved counter-cyclical program, was watching the revenue counter-cyclical program it supported in the House bill fade off into the sunset.
“This framework does not contain a revenue program growers will view as an option,” said NCGA President Ron Litterer. “It simply fails to address the changes in our industry, the realities of today’s marketplace, and the increasing levels of risk farmers are facing well into the future.”
Thanks. That makes sense. I'm still scared tho.
Hello Oldhippie,
Yep, Industrial NPK [I-NPK] is now having an ELM effect on availability and prices. I was hoping Organic NPK [O-NPK] would be ramping up by now bigtime to help tamper I-NPK pricing increases, but it appears the relative 20:1 O-NPK/I-NPK weight ratio is a big hindrance to moving the compost and manures very far:
http://www.motherearthnews.com/Sustainable-Farming/1983-03-01/Make-the-M...
----------------------------
MAKE THE MOST OF THE MANURE
To begin with, you can assume that a ton of manure is roughly equivalent to 100 pounds of packaged fertilizer. For example, 1 ton of fresh horse or steer leavings (with bedding) which contains about 10 pounds of nitrogen, 5 pounds of phosphorus, and 10 pounds of potassium-is more or less equal to 100 pounds of commercially made 10-5-10 soil supplement. On the other hand, 2,000 pounds of dairy cow or pig excrement is slightly less nutritious ... while the same amount of poultry droppings (equaling about 100 pounds of 25-15-10 fertilizer) is a great deal more valuable. And keeping in mind that rotted waste is twice as potent as raw, 1 ton of fermented equine or bovine manure is comparable to 100 pounds of 20-10-20.
As to the rate at which chemicals are released into the ground, the general rule is that most manures let go about half their "vitamins" during the first year ... around 25% the next ... close to 12.5% the third ... and so on. Two exceptions, both of which release the bulk of their nutrients within the initial 12 months, are cow dung (75%) and hen droppings (about 90%).
----------------------------------
This link has a lot more useful info besides the teaser excerpt above.
Maybe the best way to immediately cost-effectively improve manure movement from the city back out to the rural area is to fill the trunk of any rural-heading vehicle full of compost/manure, then require them to dump the load at designated rural spots convenient for the farmers to field-apply. Instead of car-pooling--how about poop-pooling?
EDIT: Wouldn't it be fun to fill the storage area of a Bentley, Jaguar, Mercedes, or Hummer full of pig manure? :)
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob;
Do you or others have any numbers on the amount that a farm's livestock leavings helps as fertilizer- to offset the costs of feeding that livestock, or the acreage required to feed livestock? Not to suggest that these outputs would be a wash against the feed inputs, but I don't know if I've ever heard any arguments for the savings generated when a farm has livestock supplying a portion of the fertilizer requirement.
From Michael Pollan "The Omnivore's Dilemma"
'Industrial agriculture took a solution (the classic farm), and turned it into several, separate problems..' (paraphrased from memory)
Bob Fiske
Hello Jokuhl,
Thxs for responding. Sorry, I don't have any numbers, but I sure wish some economists would look at the entire nutrient-loop costs and benefits of O-NPK compost and manure vs I-NPK.
Recall my earlier post: when 1914 I-K hit $10,500/ton inflation adjusted, yet most farmers probably predominately used O-NPK; I-NPK was mostly used to supplement O-NPK to prevent a Liebig Minimum. It is easy to see how our modern farming methods, being highly reliant upon long distance and energy intensive I-NPK, could be hammered by rising farming input prices. Restoring the O-NPK loop from city back to the farm may be real important soon.
Arizona has lots of wealthy people who own second vacation homes in the highlands or vacationers who travel from the desert to the mountains to get a respite from the summer heat. Lots of them have blinged-out crewcab pickups that never haul anything but luggage and golf clubs. What if they hauled manure from the outlying pigfarm to the private golf course by their vacation home, and then hauled more manure for their private city golf courses on the return trip?
In exchange for this two-way hauling, maybe they could be rewarded with free golf rounds, free pork, or reduced country club membership to offset the costs of I-NPK for the golf courses, and the aquifer depletion and groundwater pollution from the pig manure holding tanks.
Just musing on ways to make every vehicle move O-NPK while we still can, but I still think SpiderWebRiding + Alan's Ideas are our best hope for machete' moshpit reduction.
JB Hunt got started by hauling rice hulls from Stuttgart to NW AR.
Truckers are now hauling poultry waste down to farms in E AR.
They present a good case, but they didn't address that the new capacity coming online this year is about 100% more than came online in 2007 (via megaprojects wiki).
(1) Estimated new capacity coming on line.
(2) How much production was lost to depletion?
(3) Based on a pretty good grasp of 2007 data, I estimate that the top five net oil exporters are going to show another drop of about one mbpd in net oil exports in 2007, roughly the same as 2006, on track to approach zero net exports in the 2030 time frame.
(1,2) Yeah, but it's still 100% more expected than in 2007. See my comment to Leanan.
(3) I certainly think net exports will be interesting to watch over then next decade, but it's more than just the top five. Rembrandt's last oil monthly has liquid exports sort of flat.
And the problem for the smaller exporters in the bottom half is that they peak and decline faster than the larger exporters in much the same way that smaller fields peak and decline faster than the super giant fields. For example, even the Wall Street Journal is talking about Mexico, a top 10 net exporter, hitting zero net exports in the 2015 time frame.
hitting zero net exports in the 2015 time frame.
Is it funny that doesn't sound as bad as Hitting zero net imports in 6-8 years timeframe.
2012, 2018, 2025 sound so far away still for us. It's like our internal clock is still back a few years.
But 4 years away, 10 years away, sounds alot closer for some reason.
During those same 4 years, 10 etc years Ghawar will start dropping/diving, the Greater Depression will have hit.
There might even be a war or something else. Amazing times.
Unless trends change, China`s economy will be larger than the USA at that time. The latest stat show China`s exports up 26.7% YOY. There has never been an economy of this size growing at this rate (the growth eclipses the growth of the USA in its heyday).
Yes regards China and the US heyday. What you describe is exactly the impression one gets firsthand. There has never been or ever will be again anything on the earth to equal the sheer scale of the thing. Unimaginable enormity. Literally sucking up the planet's resources at present.
I=P*A*T
There's a lot of cognitive dissonance concerning coal at the moment. I regularly see side-by-side articles in DrumBeat declaring the end of coal and the resurgence of coal. Unfortunately for climate change, I think the world is going to gorge on coal the way a starving man gorges on a hot meal.
Instead of a dissonance, it reminds me of the windup to a missed punch.
The image in my mind is of the Death-Star, just starting it's Destructo-beam to abolish the Rebel Base, at the very moment that it is going to blow up from Luke's Direct hit.
"Jimmy: I've achieved nothing!
"Joey: You're missin' the point. The success of the band was irrelevant - you raised their expectations of life, you lifted their horizons. Sure we could have been famous and made albums and stuff, but that would have been predictable. This way it's poetry.
Roddy Doyle - The Commitments