DrumBeat: February 28, 2008


Oil Climbs Above $102 to a Record as Dollar Falls Against Euro

"All the crude oil available is being vacuumed up by investors, in part because interest rates are low and there's no alternative to commodities that looks very good," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. "The fall in the dollar also attracted funds."

Crude oil for April delivery rose $3, or 3 percent, to $102.64 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures rose to $102.97 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 66 percent from a year ago.

Oil hits inflation-adjusted record high
(Reuters) - U.S. oil surged to a new inflation-adjusted record high on Thursday, surpassing the previous record of $102.53 set in 1980, according to the International Energy Agency.

Major fire at large gas terminal

LONDON (Reuters) - Firefighters said on Thursday they were tackling a major fire at the Bacton gas terminal, but that the blaze appeared to be confined to the terminal itself.

"We have a very large scale incident ongoing at the moment at the Bacton Gas Shell UK Ltd site ... on the Norfolk coast," a spokeswoman for Norfolk fire brigade said.


Putin mocks US-backed gas pipeline project

MOSCOW (Thomson Financial) - President Vladimir Putin today mocked a US-backed plan to build a gas pipeline to Europe that would bypass Russia as he concluded a deal with Hungary on a rival project.

'There's always an alternative but it's worse than cooperation with Russia. You can build two pipelines, you can build three. The question is what you pump through them,' Putin told reporters after the agreement was signed.

'It's very clear that the project we are proposing can be realised and has supplies guaranteed. If someone wants to dig up the ground and build a pipeline -- go ahead, we don't mind,' he said.


Wind turbines may threaten whooping cranes

But because wind energy has gained such traction, whooping cranes could again be at risk — either from crashing into the towering wind turbines and transmission lines or because of habitat lost to the wind farms.

"Basically you can overlay the strongest, best areas for wind turbine development with the whooping crane migration corridor," said Tom Stehn, whooping crane coordinator for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.


BP begins construction on phase one of Sherbino Wind Farm in West Texas

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - BP's renewables arm, BP Alternative Energy, has begun full construction on phase one of its Sherbino Wind Farm in West Texas, it said in a statement.


Option plays suggest oil may fall to $80 by June

LONDON (Reuters) - A big chunk of new speculative money that has poured into energy futures has gone into options, which can now play a bigger role in driving the ups and downs in the price of crude oil.

In November last year a mass of option bets on $100 oil came close to pushing prices to that level. Now a large number of options are betting oil could fall to $80 by June.


Gloves are off in battle for oil sands clients

"We just had some people come back from a tour of Chinese state oil companies, and on the wall of each, there was a map of the Canadian oil sands," says Brock Gibson, a partner with the Calgary office of Blake Cassels & Graydon LLP. This despite the pull-back by China's CNPC International from its Canadian projects and uncertain future of Synenco Energy Inc.'s Northern Oil Sands Project, in which China's Sinopec has a 40-per-cent stake.

But China is just one example of foreign interest in the oil sands. The Dutch, Norwegians, French, Israelis, South Koreans and Japanese all have stakes in the sands now. India - via the Indian Oil and Natural Gas Company's (ONGC) - keeps on promising to arrive.


Analysis: Cuban oil production down

Oil production in Cuba has fallen steadily over the last half decade from a production high of nearly 65,000 barrels per day in 2003, according to energy experts on the subject.

Over the past five years, production in Cuba has dropped to about 51,300 bpd, said Jorge Pinon, a researcher at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American studies at the University of Miami.

While some are quick to assert that inefficiencies in the extraction process are to blame, Pinon notes Cuba's main oil field, Varadero, is in its fourth decade of production and showing signs of being near the end of its lifespan.


Norway state oil group Petoro's Q4 output falls

OSLO (Reuters) - Norwegian state-owned petroleum company Petoro reported a 6.7 percent drop in oil production for the fourth quarter on Thursday though higher gas output kept total production steady.

...Norway is struggling to maintain oil production against a declining trend as production from ageing North Sea oilfields tapers off, though Norwegian gas production is growing steeply.


An Energized Giant

Brazil looks set to play a larger role in South America and the world, thanks in part to a major oil discovery.


Gazprom sends warning to Ukraine as deadline looms

MOSCOW, (Reuters) - Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom sent a new warning to Ukraine on Thursday, four days ahead of the expiry of its ultimatum to Kiev to pay debt and sign a new supply deal or face reduced deliveries.

"The deadline is in force. No one has cancelled it and we plan to reduce supplies on March 3 if the problems are not solved," Gazprom's spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told Reuters.


Russian giant looms over Europe

The figures are staggering: Gazprom has a market value of $245 billion. It employs nearly half a million people and is buying up state energy companies across Europe.

It provides 100% of the gas needs of neighbouring countries like Latvia, and it provides almost half of Europe's gas needs, which will rise from 200 billion cubic metres today, to around 600 billion cubic metres by 2020.

Europe is currently desperately dependent on Russian gas.


Analysis: Russia's northern oil exports

WASHINGTON (UPI) -- The good news for Russia is that energy prices are at a world record, and that Russia is now tied neck and neck with Saudi Arabia as the world's leading oil producer, producing around 9 million barrels per day to a world consuming about 84 million bpd. Russia is the largest non-OPEC oil producer and now generates 12 percent of global production.

The bad news is that Russia's major export routes are running at full capacity. Russian energy exports to the four cardinal points of the compass all represent varying degrees of difficulties. Eastward, exports to China are still largely miniscule and move by rail until a new pipeline is complete. To the south, two routes exist -- southward across the Caspian, where oil swaps with Iran remain minor, while shipments from Russia's Black Sea Novorossiisk port, approximately 1.2 million bpd, must transit the Turkish Straits, and Ankara has vociferously protested increase in tanker traffic.


PDVSA asks UK court to lift Exxon's asset freeze

LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA has asked a UK court to lift a $12 billion freeze on its assets, granted to U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil, pending arbitration over the seizure of Exxon's Venezuelan oil fields.

Lawyers for PDVSA argued on Thursday that the British court had no right to impose the freeze because the dispute, involved parties and arbtitraion were not connected with the UK.


Exxon vs. Chavez: More Smoke Than Fire

So then, why is it that every time Hugo Chavez opens his mouth, crude oil futures leap to attention and U.S. politicians wet themselves? It’s an understandable question, and one that few investors have taken the time to understand.

The short answer would be: What if that blustery demagogue isn’t bluffing this time?


Key Mexico party seen opposing oil alliances

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - A key Mexican opposition party is unlikely to back any oil sector reform proposal that would let private companies form profit-sharing alliances with the state oil company Pemex, a senior lawmaker said.

"For us, risk contracts are unacceptable for now," Sen. Manlio Beltrones told the Mexican daily Reforma.


Analyst sees Halliburton, Schlumberger win Manifa

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Oilfield service companies Halliburton Co and Schlumberger Ltd are the expected winners of big contracts for work in Saudi Aramco's offshore Manifa oil field, Bill Herbert, analyst with Simmons & Co., said on Thursday.

"This is one of the most widely anticipated project awards," Herbert said. "The results of that tender have not been officially revealed, but we believe that the winners are Schlumberger and Halliburton."


Union members picket Petro-Canada to support locked out Montreal workers

OTTAWA, Feb. 28 /CNW Telbec/ - Members of Canada's largest energy workers' union are picketing select Petro-Canada gas stations across the country tomorrow to support of locked-out workers at the company's Montreal refinery.


The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis

One factor driving up the cost of food is the rocketing price of oil, which raises agricultural costs of everything from fertilizer to transport and shipping. Like the oil price, the cost of food is responding, in part, to the burgeoning demand in China and India, where rising incomes allow people to eat bigger meals, and to buy meat far more frequently. That, in turn, has helped to squeeze the world's supply of grain, since it takes about six pounds of animal feed to produce a pound of meat.

Then there is climate change: Harvests have been seriously disrupted by freak weather, including prolonged droughts in Australia and southern Africa, floods in West Africa, and deep frost in China and Europe. And the push to produce biofuels to replace hydrocarbons is also adding to the pressure on food supplies — generous U.S. subsidies for ethanol has gobbled up needed food acreage, as farmers switch from producing food. "The area used for biofuels is increasing each year," says Nik Bienkowski, head of research at ETF Securities, a commodities trading firm in London.


The ethanol bust

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Cargill announces it's scrapping plans for a $200 million ethanol plant near Topeka, Kan. A judge approves the bankruptcy sale of an unfinished ethanol plant in Canton, Ill.. And that was just Tuesday.

Indeed, plans for as many as 50 new ethanol plants have been shelved in recent months, as Wall Street pulls back from the sector, says Paul Ho, a Credit Suisse investment banker specializing in alternative energy. Financing for new ethanol plants, Ho says, "has been shut down."

How can the ethanol industry be slumping only two months after Congress passed an energy bill most experts consider a biofuels boon? The answer is runaway corn prices.


Food Price Hikes Roil Pakistan

Pakistanis have been grumbling about rising inflation for more than a year now, but in the past few months the sticker shock has grown much worse. Wheat prices have jumped by more than 20% since November, driven up by rising global prices as well as local hoarding ahead of the election and wheat smuggling into neighboring Afghanistan. The price of the gas that many Pakistanis use to cook with has also skyrocketed. January's inflation rate was nearly 12%, the highest in almost three years.


Food Security: Moving towards the precipice?

A jittery Chinese government imposed temporary price-controls on a slew of basic food products in January after news that the consumer price index jumped to an 11-year high that month. Food prices were cited as a main contributor to the increase.

The pressure of rising food prices has afflicted not only China, but reflects a greater global trend driven by complex factors such as population growth, changes in dietary trends as groups are lifted out of poverty, increased demand for biofuels, and climate change.


Fertilizer glut likely by 2012

NEW DELHI: Farmers across the world will not face any shortage of fertilizers in four years’ time.

If a UN Food and Agriculture Organisation report is anything to go by, global fertilizer supply is expected to outstrip demand by 2011-12 and will support higher levels of food and bio-fuel production.


Bangaldesh: Bridging the widening food gaps

As the price of rice climbs across South Asia farmers and millers in Thailand are setting on stocks and waiting for it to rise even further. Top rice exporter in Bangkok says in an interview with the Straits Times, "In my 25 years of trading, I have never seen such a bad position." So, Bangladesh being an Asian country and prone to natural calamities cannot expect to see a better situation in respect of rice and wheat price.


Breadbasket inflation

The scope of the problem is daunting. On Tuesday, Julian Borger reported in The Guardian that rising food commodity prices will prevent the United Nation's World Food Program from maintaining its current food deliveries to 73 million desperately hungry people. In China, the fourth consecutive year in which grain harvests lagged consumer demand impelled the government to slap a raft of export tariffs on grain exports. Russia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan have also imposed export restrictions. (Thanks to Energy Bulletin for the links.)

The worst-case scenario is obvious: mass starvation. Short of that, crippling inflation.

Enter the biotech industry.


Protests paralyse Cameroon capital and port city

YAOUNDE (Reuters) - Anti-government riots paralysed Cameroon's capital and main port city on Wednesday as popular anger exploded over high fuel and food prices and a bid by President Paul Biya to extend his 25-year rule.

The unrest -- the worst in more than 15 years in the central African oil producer -- has killed at least six people since it broke out at the weekend in the port of Douala, a major shipping hub on Africa's west coast.


'Panic' wheat buying across the US

While US has made improvements to increase crop production efficiency in recent years, the world hasn’t really put sufficient investment into production agriculture for several decades.

The net result has been declining stocks at the same time that expanding global wealth has demanded more raw commodities.


The Problem With Biofuels

AS THE United States searches for alternative ways to feed its addiction to petroleum, ethanol and other biofuels derived from organic material have been considered a miracle motor vehicle elixir. The energy bill signed by President Bush in December mandates that at least 36 billion gallons of biofuels a year be used by 2020. Yet separate studies released this month by Princeton University and the Nature Conservancy reveal that biofuels are not a silver bullet in the battle against global warming. In fact, they could make things worse.


Fuel Prices Back On The Rise

He explained that in the two years that lapsed between when the city did cost estimates, established a project budget and issued debt for the South Milam Street and Friendship Lane work, the price of the project rose by $2 million -- from roughly $3.7 million to $5.7 million.

The city made up that difference with its cash reserves, but Neffendorf pointed out that such a solution is not always available.

“Experience tells us that we’ll adjust and cope, but you have to wonder when ‘too high’ is too high?” he said.


UK: Brown's Huge Petrol Ripoff

GORDON Brown is set to rake in £4.5billion in stealth taxes on the back of soaring oil costs that are causing misery for millions of motorists.


Drought in China leaves millions thirsty

While parts of China have been rocked by record snowfalls, a drought in northern China has left more than two million people without sufficient drinking water, a state news agency says.

The drought has led to loss of arable land, livestock and drinking water, according to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the official Xinhua News Agency said.


Things aren't as bad in the Gulf as claimed

Overzealousness recently backfired on the peak oil crowd after Platts investigated the actual data behind their claims that the first generation of deepwater Gulf of Mexico fields has failed to fulfill expectations.

Challenged on that assertion to provide backup data, peak oil guru Matt Simmons was unable to comply.


Florida's Blackout: A Warning Sign?

Both America's electrical hardware and software components, Makovich concedes, are still dealing with "a legacy of underinvestment." In the decade before the 2003 blackout, for example, annual electrical transmission investment in the U.S. grew only about 20%. Between 2005 and 2010 it's expected to jump by some 65%, to about $15 billion — a level many U.S. infrastructure critics feel the country should have been at by the beginning of the this century, not a decade into it.


DOE Not Backing Down On Strategic Reserve Fill

The Bush administration yesterday defended its policy to withdraw oil from a tight market to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while at the same time asking other countries to boost oil production.

Katharine Fredriksen, principal deputy assistant secretary in the Energy Department's Office of Policy and International Affairs, said taking less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the 85 million barrels of crude consumed per day around the world for the SPR does not affect consumer prices.


PDVSA Aims For $5.7B Investment In Former Exxon Venture

Venezuela plans an ambitious development program for Petromonagas, a heavy crude upgrader at the heart of the country's legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp.


Oil changes every 3,000 miles: not for everyone

Car manufacturers don't recommend such frequent changes for many vehicles -- and all that used oil is bad for the environment.


Waste not, want not

(Fortune Magazine) -- Sintex Industries, a plastics and textiles manufacturer in Gujarat, India, is betting it can find profit in human waste. Its new biogas digester turns human excrement, cow dung, or kitchen garbage into fuel that can be used for cooking or generating electricity, simultaneously addressing two of India's major needs: energy and sanitation.


ANALYSIS - Nuclear Industry Eyes Oversupplied US South

HOUSTON - Would-be developers of the next round of nuclear power plants who want to build reactors in eight Southern US states are ignoring a surplus of idle generation and the region's history of nuclear cost overruns.


Poonpirom wants to make Thailand world-class 'green energy' hub

Thailand is developing a master plan to build the country into the world's second largest green energy producer after Brazil. Energy Minister Poonpirom Liptapanlop said she wanted to see the country become a net exporter of green energy to tap strong global demand.

To achieve the goal, authorities plan to develop a 15-year Renewable Energy Development Plan to cover the full range of alternative energy businesses including gasohol, biodiesel, biomass, wind and solar power, she said yesterday.


Canada: Emerson hints oil would be back on table if U.S. reopens NAFTA

OTTAWA - Trade Minister David Emerson suggested the United States has a sweet deal over access to Canada's oil under the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying the two Democratic presidential candidates calling for renegotiations may not know just how good the U.S. has it under the deal.

..."Knowledgeable observers would have to take note of the fact that we are the largest supplier of energy to the U.S. and NAFTA has been the foundation for integrating the North American energy market. When people get below the rhetoric and pick away at the details, they are going to find it's not such a slam dunk proposition."


Indonesia blackouts may be sign of dark years ahead

JAKARTA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Sudden blackouts on two key Indonesian islands last week may be just the start of a spiralling two-year power crisis that could stymie economic growth, curtail resource exports and trigger social unrest.

..."The situation in Indonesia is worse than anywhere else in Asia," says Joseph Jacobelli, head of Asia-Pacific utilities research at Merrill Lynch.


With Bolivian gas supplies uncertain, Argentina looking for energy

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina: Argentine officials, already facing an energy crisis, are scrambling to find new sources of natural gas and other energy following Bolivia's warning that it may not be able to provide all the supplies it had promised.


Mexico's Pemex posts $1.48 bln 2007 net loss

MEXICO CITY, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Mexican state-run oil monopoly Pemex reported a $1.48 billion net loss for 2007, as higher energy imports knocked it back into the red after it managed a rare annual profit in 2006.

Pemex, which is taxed heavily to provide more than a third of the government's fiscal income, said overall revenues inched up by 2.9 percent in 2007 to an all-time high of $104 billion, boosted by high global oil prices.


Fuel costs, lower demand to hit profits

AIRLINE profits are expected to come under increasing pressure in 2008, due to a slowdown in premium traffic demand and high fuel prices.

The sweet spot of industry profit growth is gone, following some superb earnings performances in the latter half of 2007.


France to send engineers to help in South Africa power crisis

Johannesburg - France will send a team of engineers to South Africa over the coming week to help it resolve a crippling energy crisis, South African President Thabo Mbeki and visiting French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in Cape Town Thursday. The announcement followed the signing of a 1.4-billion-euro deal between state electricity supplier Eskom and French company Alstom, which has been chosen to supply turbines for a new coal-fired power station in Mpumalanga province.


South Africa: Urgent meeting over mine jobs called

Government, the mining industry and trade unions are meeting over the potential shedding of thousands of jobs due to the country’s power restrictions.

According to Sapa, those attending the meeting are the Minister of Minerals and Energy, the Minister of Trade and Industry, the Chamber of Mines, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and state-owned power utility Eskom.


Upgrades helped contain Fla. blackout

MIAMI — The power outage that left 1.2 million Florida homes and businesses in the dark Tuesday could have been worse without emergency measures adopted after the disastrous Northeast blackout of 2003, a power industry official said.

Numerous systems failed during the blackout, which left two nuclear power plants closed and knocked out traffic lights in dozens of communities.

"It wasn't just one thing that went wrong," said Stanley Johnson, manager of Situation Awareness and Infrastructure Security for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which oversees the U.S. power grid system. "In a sense, it's like the Challenger (space shuttle that exploded in 1986)."


Declining Oil Supply Means War Is ‘Fairly Probable,’ Rep. Bartlett Says (with video)

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) said “that war is a fairly probable consequence” of peaking and declining world oil supplies. Bartlett spoke to Energy Policy TV about oil supplies as a guest on the EPTV News Roundtable series. Video of the full interview is available at no cost: Bartlett EPTV News Roundtable.

China is buying significant amounts of oil to fuel its economy and meet the needs of its people. But while China is bolstering its oil supply, its leaders are planning for a future without oil, Bartlett said.

China wants to foster international cooperation to deal with constrained oil supplies, Bartlett said. “They recognize that any one country, going it alone, is not going to be able to solve this problem. But while they plead for international cooperation, they wisely plan as if there won’t be any because they are out there buying oil everywhere they can. At the same time they are buying this oil, they are aggressively building a blue-water navy,” he said.

That navy is beyond anything the Chinese would need in a confrontation with Taiwan, Bartlett said. Rather, he said, they are anticipating a day when oil supplies are so constrained that they have to tell the rest of the world, “Gee, I’m sorry, guys, it’s our oil. We have a billion, three-hundred million people and we can no longer share it.”


Oil could reach $300, says expert

Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are "cheap".

"I think the supply is showing some very troubling signs that we might well have already peaked and started [to slow] down. If we haven't, we are very close to it," he told Arabian Business. "Demand on the other hand shows absolutely no sign of slowing down because we are now at $100 a barrel, which I still think is a preposterously cheap price. It works out at just $0.15 a cup.

"A cup of gas will get a car with six passengers in, with the air conditioning on and go two miles. It's a bargain," he added.


OPEC ministers say oil output will not increase, citing a weak global economy

VIENNA, Austria - OPEC decided Friday against pumping more oil in a rebuff to the United States and a possible prelude to cuts as early as next month should the wounded U.S. economy sap demand for crude.

The decision arrived despite U.S. urgings - backed by other major consumers - for more oil on the market to cool prices and relieve inflationary pressures that have contributed to fears of a global economic downturn.


Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency

HOUSTON (Reuters) - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.

Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said a decline in wind energy production in west Texas occurred at the same time evening electric demand was building as colder temperatures moved into the state.


House OKs new taxes on big oil companies

WASHINGTON - The House approved $18 billion in new taxes on the largest oil companies Wednesday as Democrats cited record oil prices and rising gasoline costs in a time of economic troubles.

The money collected over 10 years would provide tax breaks for wind, solar and other alternative energy sources and for energy conservation. The legislation, approved 236-182, would cost the five largest oil companies an average of $1.8 billion a year over that period, according an analysis by the House Ways and Means Committee. Those companies earned $123 billion last year.


Nigeria's Brass River oil output cut by attack

(Reuters) - Oil output at Nigeria's Brass River crude oil stream has been reduced because of a militant attack on Feb. 24, oil traders said on Thursday.


No Nigeria Brass oil attack, operator Eni says

MILAN/LAGOS, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Italian energy firm Eni denied on Thursday that its Nigerian Brass River crude oil stream had been attacked by militants.

"We are not aware of any attack and there has only been a minor stop in production due to technical problems at one minor flow station at Brass. Production is nearly normal," an Eni spokeswoman told Reuters.


Connecticut to hear testimony on establishment of a energy scarcity taskforce

AN ACT CONCERNING ENERGY SCARCITY AND SECURITY.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives in General Assembly convened:

Section 1. (Effective from passage) (a) There is established a task force to study energy scarcity and sustainability. The task force shall conduct scenario planning for long-term petroleum and natural gas scarcity, steep price increases and supply disruptions. Such study shall include, but not be limited to, examining price and scarcity impacts of natural gas and petroleum on the economy, food supply, transportation, education, health and emergency response.

The public is invited to testify.


UAE rejects advice to de-peg from dollar

DUBAI - The United Arab Emirates will not de-peg its currency from the flagging US dollar, the central bank governor was quoted as saying in remarks published on Thursday. His comments came after former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan advised oil-rich Gulf Arab states whose currencies are pegged to the dollar to float their currencies as a means to curb inflation.

“The dollar is on its way to strengthening, and it is not logical to speak now of de-pegging the dirham from the dollar,” Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi told the Abu Dhabi-based daily Al-Ittihad.


China welcomes president of oil-rich Nigeria

BEIJING: President Hu Jintao of China, which is increasingly looking to Africa for natural resources to feed its booming economy, gave a warm welcome Thursday to the president of oil-rich Nigeria.


South Korea to Increase Imports of Saudi Crude

South Korea's top refiner has decided to crank up its imports of Saudi crude by 50 percent starting in April. SK Energy plans to import a total of 135,000 barrels per day, or 49.27 million barrels per year, from state-run Saudi Aramco, up 47,000 barrels per day from the current 88,000.

SK Energy has had difficulty in securing a sufficient oil supply since Iraq suspended all crude exports to South Korea in protest of an exploration deal between Korean companies, including SK, and the Kurdish regional government.


Israel renews talks with Gazprom

Sources inform "Globes" that senior officials at the Ministry of National Infrastructures, including director general Hezi Kugler, left for Russia this week, apparently in order to meet representatives of Russian energy giant Gazprom. It is believed the aim of the meeting is to make progress on an agreement for the supply of natural gas from Russia to Israel, following the talks the governments of the two countries held on the deal last year.


Aramco’s $90 billion five-year plan

"We also need the whole world to arrive at greater clarity as to what it wants and realistically can achieve in terms of a future energy mix; to achieve a greater consensus among producers and consumers about the roles and responsibilities of each in terms of realizing that mix; and finally, to enhance the security of both supply and of demand over the long term," said Jum‘ah.

"With time, we will need to draw upon a variety of energy sources, including alternatives, to help meet demand," he said, pointing out that expert forecasts indicate fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy supplies for the foreseeable future. In fact, the share of fossil fuels is predicted to remain above 80% through the year 2030.


The shape of lights to come? Not everyone's buying it

But now that more people are using CFLs, the bulbs' shortcomings are giving some consumers pause. Consumers are raising concerns about the quality of light from such bulbs and say they often don't work well with dimmer switches, in certain light fixtures or in hot or cold conditions.

And although fluorescent bulbs are less expensive to use in the long run, some consumers are turned off by the cost: $3 to $10, compared with about 50 cents for regular bulbs. Meanwhile, retailers such as IKEA are setting up recycling programs in response to concerns about how to dispose of CFLs, which contain mercury and could pose a health hazard if they break and are not cleaned up properly.

Such drawbacks help explain why, even though one in five bulbs sold in the USA is now a compact fluorescent, a lower percentage of American homes — estimates run as low as 11% — have at least one of the bulbs.


The $2.5 Billion Question

In appearance at least, it's a case for the ages. The grounding of the Valdez, allegedly caused by an intoxicated captain, was one of the major environmental disasters of the last few decades. It pits America's largest company and most influential industry groups against the state of Alaska, several of the state's most prominent politicians (including Republican Sens. Ted Stevens and Lisa Murkowski) and environmental groups.


Ghana: Crude Oil - Blessing Or Curse?

We have every right to celebrate the news of the oil discovery in the country particularly when the nation had just wallowed in the darkness of energy crisis for nearly a year. Moreover, with crude oil prices reaching record high, we ought to rejoice as the great book says 'again, I say rejoice'.

However, whilst rejoicing on the discovery of the oil we should not allow our heart to override our head in this matter. Crude oil is not the solution to our problem. It is like the bitter bile on the liver. One ought to be careful when attempting to take the liver as it might result in bursting the bitter bile.


Transit-Oriented Development - By the Numbers

The compact, walkable neighborhood built around public transit rather than the private car has long been one of the ideals of new urbanism. Now significant new research confirms with hard numbers the advantage of transit-oriented development over conventional suburbia. With the United States in the midst of a light-rail building boom, it’s a great time to be finding this out.


Summit reveals Abu Dhabi as world leader in race for future energy solutions

The first World Future Energy Summit, which took place in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last month, has firmly established this small Gulf emirate as a world leader in the increasingly urgent race to find innovative solutions to the coming energy crisis.


Renewable Energy: Approaching Grid Parity?

So to summarize: We need more energy. Oil is more expensive and harder to get. Yet renewables are not competitive, even with the rising prices of fossil fuels.

What is this guy smoking?


Radiant Future: Our suburban lifestyle is doomed by the energy crisis

In the docudrama Radiant City, written and directed by Gary Burns and Jim Brown and just out on DVD, one scene captures the mess made by our "way of life." Author and critic James Howard Kunstler is standing on an asphalt path for bikes and jogging; the path is affixed to a brand new subdivision that resembles a moonscape with houses. Traffic whizzes by Kunstler on either side of a fence, barely five feet away. As the wind from the SUVs blows his necktie to and fro, Kunstler tries to explain why this pathetic little amenity — slapped onto the landscape by some designer in an office cubicle hundreds of miles away — is an "assault on your neurology" with the "ambiance of a prison."


G8, EU make progress in climate commitments: study

OTTAWA (AFP) - The Group of Eight industrialized nations and the European Union have made greater strides this past year than previously in meeting their commitments to stem global warming, said a report Wednesday.

"This year, compliance has increased noticeably across climate-related commitments," said the G8 Research Group's annual compliance report.


U.S. Remains Cool to Warming Pact

Read quickly, the latest White House statement on climate change may have sounded like news - good news. On Monday, Daniel Price, the Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economic Affairs, told reporters in Paris that the U.S. would be willing to accept mandatory international limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Coming from an Administration that has steadfastly resisted mandatory caps, withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol and effectively derailed any serious global effort to slow climate change, this could have been a big deal. But as is so often the case with the Bush Administration's environmental policies, the devil is in the details.

The Reuters article "Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency" has a very misleading headline, since the article itself indicates that loss of wind was only a minor cause of the emergency.

From the article:

wind production fell from more than 1,700 megawatts, before the event, to 300 MW when the emergency was declared...

At the time of the emergency, ERCOT demand increased from 31,200 MW to a peak of 35,612 MW, about half the total generating capacity in the region,

1. Supply decreased by 1400 MW. Demand increased 4412 MW. So (Supply - Demand) incrased by 4812. 24% of this was due to loss of wind, and 76% was due to increase in demand. So it would have been much more accurate to title the article "increase in demand led to power emergency."

2. The total demand was half the generating capacity in the region. I understand that the wind can't just be switched back on. But why couldn't the coal plants and natural gas plants be turned back on at a moment's notice? Isn't this supposed to be their strength? I suspect there are extra causes of the emergency lurking here.

The point of the piece is that the wind power dropped just when it was most needed.

EON who run a lot of the gird in Germany has been saying for years that keeping the grid running with a high wind input is tricky, and if you plan on the right back up, expensive too.

Your understanding of how the grid works is faulty - nuclear plants are used for baseload, ie they run all the time, as the marginal price of power from them is low.

This can cause additional problems when combined with wind power, as when the wind blows, which it doesn't all the time you obviously need to use it.

Coal and gas plants too can't be switched on at the drop of a hat, unless they are already turning over, in which case they are burning some fuel and form part of what they call the spinning capacity, which can be switched on very quickly but runs at reduced efficiency for the first half hour or so.

IOW you need fairly substantial back-up if you are using wind power, and keeping that ready to fire up costs a lot of fuel.

My point was that one cause-- loss of wind-- was being singled out for blame for an emergency that clearly had multiple causes.

The biggest cause was the sudden unexpected spike in demand due to colder temperatures moving into the state. From the numbers in the article, it seems that *if wind hadn't dropped*, this alone would have caused a stage 1 emergency. Why was this the temperature drop and power spike unexpected? Large changes in temp can typically be predicted hours, even days in advance.

The article also says "multiple power suppliers fell below the amount of power they were scheduled to produce on Tuesday." Details, please, Reuters! How did the magnitude of these shortfalls compare to the magnitude of the wind shortfall? How many suppliers fell short? Why? What was their power source?

Given that a large spike in power was (or should have been) expected, and that multiple (non-wind) power suppliers were falling short, why wasn't standby backup increased, even at the cost of wasting fuel? When you have some problems, and more are on the way, that's the time to increase your safety margin.

And why wasn't the wind shortfall predicted? I'm no meteorologist, but it would seem to me that a large decrease in wind over a large area (i.e., movement of fronts) should be predictable on the timescale of hours.

So I think that the bottom line is that yes, a wind shortfall did cause problems. But the emergency happened because a lot of things went wrong; the drop in the wind was only a (relatively minor) cause.

I don't seek to write wind off on the basis of one outage, but the problems are rather tougher than for some other sources.

Fossil fuel or nuclear can usually be just scheduled for maintenance, and taken off line at a time known way in advance, although of course you can have the occasional breakdown, but wind is by it's nature variable, so is tougher to balance all the time, and the back up needed for any given level of security of supply would tend to be higher, although by no means one for one.

German and Danish infrastructure is 'probably' usually run at higher safety margins than is common in America, just like the highways, so a higher penetration of wind may be easier than in most places in the states.

With the typical low-levels of infrastructure investment in the States it seems likely that there could be more frequent problems where wind increases it's share of generation much.

My original comment had been concerned with bias in the Reuters article, not the broader issue of suitability of wind. But the latter is interesting to talk about.

Your post perpetuates a common myth: "Fossil fuel or nuclear can usually be just scheduled for maintenance, and taken off line at a time known way in advance, although of course you can have the occasional breakdown"

Unscheduled maintenance is just a serious problem for fossil (at least coal). According to this study

because coal plants were shut down for scheduled maintenance 6.5% of the year and unscheduled maintenance or forced outage for another 6% of the year on average in the United States from 2000 to 2004, coal energy from a given plant is guaranteed only 87.5% of the year, with a typical range of 79%–92% (North American Electric Reliability Council 2005; Giebel 2000)

I don't know the comparable figures for nuclear, but remember that when nuclear unexpectedly goes down, a lot goes down all at once. Witness the power outages in florida earlier this week, and similar unscheduled shutdowns in Spain and Japan last year.

As the study cited above notes, simply by linking geographically diverse wind turbines, one can achieve a "baseload supply" (i.e., availability comparable to coal) of one third of nameplate wind capacity. Again, that's without any form of storage.

You are right that infrastructure investments are necessary. But investments are necessary to build the wind turbines in the first place. Think of the extra infrastructure as part of the cost.

As I always say ... 'watch and learn' - as we inevitably move to more and more alternatives to FF expect instability and intermittent power, grids are complex machines - this is how many parts of the world have to work already, individuals in those countries plan so as to mitigate it's effects ... you can too!

I don't want to come across as some sort of anti-wind loon - I try to judge every suggestion on it's own merits.
In fact, for the UK at least, variability may be less of a problem than is currently realised:
http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/sinden05-dtiwindreport.pd...
sinden05-dtiwindreport.pdf

However, that does not mean that the variability, both over the short-term and the rather longer term will not cause any problems, and particularly in the US with it's history of minimal investment in infrastructure that may cause problems.

It is up to you to make your own judgement, but it seems to me that a high level of penetration of wind power in the States might cause more problems than a similar level in Europe.

With wind having a rather high EROI already, has anyone done an HONEST feasibility study on what the costs and options for storage might be? Pressurized air wind energy storage? Heat?

Given wind's strong advantages in other areas I don't think it would be all too difficult to mitigate the intermittency issue with a little planning and forethought.

With these renewables it just looks like we're going have to build some storage capacity. I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing. Just part of the solution.

I favor pumped hydro as cost effective. People will say that you have to have the land for it and not everyone has the vertical rise. Even in the flat lands of Texas, there could be enough of a plateau for this. It is pretty efficient and can provide water storage for crops and homes.

There was a recent study in Scientific American which sought to show that it would be possible to generate all the power for the US using solar energy, and transmitting it as needed from the South-West to other areas.

Amongst other issues discovered was the proposed storage mechanism to make up for overnight capacity.

They wanted to use compressed air.

The problem is with that is when you come to use it you have to re-heat it, and they were going to use natural gas for the purpose.

The burn would have been huge, if my memory is correct much larger than current gas use.

Other storage proposals run into similar problems.

It boils down to that unless you are very lucky and have access to hydroelectric capacity, as Denmark does from Scandanavia, then effectively you have to have large amounts of FF capacity to back-up, and that a proportion of it will be spinning capacity, ie fired up but idling, and burning fuel in the process.
When it is brought into action it is then much less efficient for the first half hour or so.

You might also perhaps build vast polders in the ocean or great lakes, and pump water in them, but the costs would be added to the already large costs of windpower, and so are pretty impractical for the foreseeable future.

Recent costs for the UK's proposed 33GW nameplate off-shore wind build were given as £66bn - and you only get around 10-11GW of power per hour from that on average, so it works out at around £6.6bn GW - hugely expensive without building fancy storage, and at least twice the price of a nuclear build.

You can reduce that of course if you have somewhere to put the turbines on land with good wind resources, as is the case in many areas of the States, but it is still pricey before you start building huge amounts of storage.

T Boone Pickens is currently building the biggest wind farm in the world in Texas, 4GW nameplate for $10bn.

The problem is of course that the actual energy flow on average per hour on a generous figure of 35% average capacity is only around 1.4GW.

Let's round that up for convenience and to be very fair and call it 1.5GW.

That is $6.6bn GW - about half the cost of off-shore but still dear and around the price of a nuclear build which would not suffer from the same need for storage at high rates of penetration.

So the wind option can be useful, particularly where it tracks well with peak use, but is a very long way indeed from being able to power most of the grid at any reasonable cost.

There are two concepts intermingled here. First is capacity factor. That is just the total electrical production over a year divided by the nameplate rating x the hours in the year. The US nuclear fleet is hitting over 90% regularly. The initial design economic assumptions for these large nukes was 70% or 80% so they are doing really well.

The second is forced outage rate. That's when unplanned shutdowns occur. It used to be that a nuke would scram once or twice a year. Scrams seldom happen anymore. Most US nukes startup and run 18 months without hiccup or trip at 100% capacity.

They do have to be shutdown once in a while to remove old fuel and add fresh. Most plants do this over an 18 month fuel cycle. Refueling takes from 12 to 30 days depending on other work underway and the specific plant design features. New nukes are supposed to do 17 days with all required maintenance.

Coal plants have the capacity factor mentioned above but since they are fueled continuously, they don't need to be suhtdown for refueling. Hence, almost all of their downtime (but not all) is due to forced outages. Typically a boiler tube will blow or a burner with clog up, stuff like that.

We nukes call coal plants "dirt burners."

Your cited claim that wind power can claim 33% capacity is incorrect and is academic wishful thinking. In Texas, for example, ERCOT only allows 8% credit and that's generous.

Chapterwon and Dave;
I agree that the emphasis was unnecessarily harsh on windpower, which we know will be a variable supply. My contention is that a great portion of the fault lies with our system being built on the 'Assumption of Steady, Continuous Energy' Petroleum has fed us this myth for decades, and we are looking to all the other sources to back up that promise.

Petroleum and Gas will prove their intermittency soon enough, and in the rearview mirror of history it will look like One On, and then One Off.. Solar and Wind go away, but they keep coming back. Nuclear looks sort of steady from this 5 decade window at the height of Petroleum's abundance, but I am very skeptical that it can survive in a world without such a meaty petroleum backup supply. I've said it before.. I think Nuclear DEMANDS as much of a 'Baseload' of energy around it as it seems to offer.

The core problem is that we need to feed our towns, homes and businesses like anything else in the natural world eats.. you have to store energy and be able to ride out periods of scarcity. Life doesn't operate on this 'baseload' fantasy, we've just been able to mimic that euclidean ideal concept for a little while since we found that motherlode. It has been a fun little mask that we wore to pretend that we aren't children of 'Mother Nature'.. she has never even been that far away, we just acted like we were Astronauts for a spell.

Bob Fiske

Well said sir. And at 90 billion per major plant nuclear does seem to be a very intense form of energy. I'm not completely adverse to nuclear the way some are, though. I could be wrong. But as for wind and solar, I'm in complete agreement. We need to build the storage.

DaveMart -

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the more that wind power increases as a percentage of the total power fed to a particular grid, the more we are going have serious problems with maintaining a stable power supply, such as the recent event in Texas.

Gas turbine back-up held in a constant state of standby is a solution, albeit an expensive one, both in capital investment and operating cost.

A more elegant solution would be some sort of a system of 'super capacitors' that could store something like an hour's worth of maximum wind farm output and then almost instantaneously begin releasing that power in the event of a sudden drop in wind power. This concept could be further refined to also include a bank of empty capacitors designed to take an hour's worth of excess wind power during short periods when too much wind power is being generated. The stored electricity could then be released back into the grid slowly as needed. Of course, large capacitors are very expensive, and more development work would be needed to achieve large inexpensive capacitors. While large batteries would also work, they wouldn't quite have the quick response of a capacitor, particularly during the charging part of the cycle.

So, essentially what is needed to make wind power more user friendly is an energy 'flywheel' to help smooth out the peaks and valleys. (In fact, actual mechanical flywheels have at various times been investigated for energy storage, and like everything else, they have their own set of pros and cons.) But as things stand right now, it appears that once wind power becomes even a rather small fraction of a grid's total power input, serious stability problems develop.

Can anyone comment on the status of Flywheel Storage at this point?

I keep wondering if the limitation is that we try to load them up to max capacity, introducing bearing, centrifugal stress and stability issues, if it isn't reasonable to 'Undercrank' them, and run more of them instead.. ?

Seems like a very simple and mass-producible storage system.. but I don't know what their Achilles' Heel is currently.

Bob

jokuhl -

There was a great deal of work done on flywheel energy storage in the 1970s and early 1980s, however I haven't heard of all that much work being done on this subject since that general time frame. There are a number of companies that make flywheels for energy storage, but these appear to be for much smaller applications than large power generating systems.

The modern energy storage flywheel typically runs at very high speeds, has a carbon fiber rotor, is enclosed in a vacuum chamber to elminate air drag, and has special high-tech bearings. The high speed is essential, as the amount of energy stored is proportional to the square of the rotational speed. These can be scaled up in size, but only to a certain point, and then some serious design constraints come into play. Thus, if you were to attempt flywheel storage for a large wind farm, you would probably need several times the number of flywheels as you have turbines, and that could get pretty expensive. But honestly, I no longer have a feel for what the current economics are.

Maybe for really large applications, a larger but lower-tech flywheel (as you suggested) might have some merit. Still, it's going to take a huge spinning mass to store even a few minutes worth of the energy produced by a single large wind turbine.

Beacon Power specifically designs large flywheel systems for grid load management. http://www.beaconpower.com/products/EnergyStorageSystems/flywheels.htm

It appears they are just in the stages of testing these technologies in real life.

I don't know what their Achilles' Heel is currently

As with any dense way of storing energy the problem is the failure mode!

Gas typically explodes, a serious failure mode - you don't want to be sitting in a house which has a gas leak when somebody switches on a light switch that makes a spark!

Gasoline typically burns fiercely - so is somewhat safer than gas.

Flywheels tend to leave the building in a marked manner! - massive armour plating is required, also they're not really suitable for a mobile application eg: aircraft with powerful rotating engine components can do strange/frightening things when close to the ground.

However flywheels are good for storing large amounts of power required at very short notice - they are often used in particle accelerators such as at CERN.

snip; The PS's rotating machine comprises a motor coupled to a generator. The generator's rotor acts like a flywheel, supplying high-power pulses of 40 to 50 megawatts to the PS magnets. The 6 megawatt motor drives the installation at 1000 revolutions per minute and compensates only for variations in speed. /snip http://bulletin.cern.ch/eng/articles.php?bullno=23/2006&base=art

I don't see short duration fluctuations as being a major problem for wind power.

We already have batteries available which serve for this sort of purpose, although one utility got caught out recently when their supplier ceased trading, so it was left with several million dollars worth of batteries which had proved unreliable.

Ultracapacitors perhaps in conjunction with a battery would also help.

All this adds to the already high costs of wind though.

One should remember that energy storage will always lever cost and reliability differences in inputs. That means that it is imperative to use the lowest cost, most reliable electrical inputs to energy storage. Use of expensive power inputs will result in disporportionaltely higher output costs.

Remember, that any storage is less than perfect. More goes in than comes out. The overhead capital and O&M cost of the storage facility means that the input source must be reliable too. There are only certain times when charging is feasible and if the source is not available, then the cost per unit output goes up as the overhead is spread over a smaller number of output units.

That means that nuclear or coal are the better sources for storage since they are 1) cheaper, and 2) more reliable. Solar and wind would just make more expensive stored energy.

Storage works AGAINST renewables, not for them.

Obviously, some sort of buffering is needed. Wind has worked great for pumping water up into a tank. Make the tank big enough, and no wind for a little while doesn't matter. Various suggestions have been made for pumped storage schemes or to use wind power for hydrogen electrolysis; one or the other of these will have to be incorporated for wind to work on a long-term basis.

Actually, simple cycle CTs can be "turned on" at a drop of a hat, but they are about the only thing that can, particularly the aero-derivative units.

They cannot, however, be turned on and put into "pre-mix" operation. It takes time to heat the cans, stabilize, and to switch over to from diffusion to pre-mix mode. The newest units I've worked with have the ability to have generator turning as a motor (already synchronized) and the turbine "clutched" and not "spinning" until the start-cycle is initiated. But they still can only be started in diffusion flame mode with lots of NOx and lots of excess air to keep from melting components in the expansion section.

You are correct that standard fossil fuel-fired units cannot be started immediately and really even the ones that are operating at less than full power have maybe an immediate 5-10 MW "all call" added capacity with the remaining available capacity reserve capacity governed by the refractory heating rates and how fast you can increase the heat transfer through the various sections of the boiler. Other than their inherent efficiency advantage (and the fun of starting them up), I'm not aware of any particular advantage that a supercritical unit would have a subcritical one or visa versa.

As for nuclear units...slow to respond and there are also grid balance issues associated with their operation (in addition to NRC requirements associated around the loading of these units relative to the grid). The sort of situation desribed above makes balancing just a real joy (I note that my tongue is firmly planted in cheek).

I agree with you. It isn't as easy as it seems (or as simple as turning on a switch).

Let me give you some hard numbers on gas turbine startup times. For a distillate fueled aeroderiviative, a 9 MWe unit needs 2 minutes. A 25 MW unit needs about 10 minutes. Now this is for emergency duty so proper operations would take it slower.

Nukes can load follow. The last one I helped build could swing from 25% to 100% back to 25% over about an hour, on autopilot and that's with all control rods out. The economics of large capital cost, low fuel cost generation encourages one to run them flat out all the time but one can only put as much power into a grid as the customers want to take out (barring storage.)

To bring a large coal or nuclear unit online from cold shutdown takes 12 to 24 hours or more (more if you can to avoid metal fatigue issues.)

The ongoing preparations for war with economic competitors should give pause to any who think they will go quietly into the night of energy starvation.As we are the greatest per capita used of petro-products...they get more "bang for their buck"by going nose to nose w/the usa.With the falling dollar,the systemic poisoning of the worlds financial system by US based sharpshooters,and the current crop of .gov type leaders whose only concern is how much they can loot out of the system as the collapse occurs,does not bode well for the average citizen