DrumBeat: March 27, 2008
Posted by threadbot on March 27, 2008 - 10:29am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Truckers back a national 65 mph speed limit
A highway slowdown has begun in response to high energy prices—and the big trucking companies are leading the way. Con-Way Freight, one of the nation's largest trucking firms with 8,500 rigs, has announced it is turning back the electronic speed limiters in its entire fleet from 65 miles per hour to 62 mph.
One more incident to add to the irony file… Last night as I was reading the TOD, an SUV careened out of control and smashed into the power pole at the foot of my driveway plunging my home into darkness; thankfully the driver wasn’t seriously hurt, but I suspect the vehicle is a total write-off. This is a secondary pole that supports the line that feeds both my home and my neighbour (my neighbour’s home was unaffected). The pole is cracked and leaning badly and will need to be replaced; so too my entrance mast, as the upper portion is bent and detached.
The good news is that Nova Scotia Power has temporarily restored my service as I wait for an electrician to replace the mast and meter base. The other good news is that the lineman replaced the original feed with a heavier gage conductor that will allow me to upgrade to a 200-amp service at some future date – this is something I’ve wanted to do for sometime but have held off due to the high cost; now with the insurance company footing the bill for the new line and mast, all I need to do is replace the main panel.
The other interesting thing is that I’m told the line that serves our two homes is grossly undersized and that much of the insulation has melted away because of this (my neighbour’s home is electrically heated). The lineman was quite shocked at its poor condition.
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned our main line operates at 2,200-volts and I had an opportunity to ask why. The technician said the utility would like to upgrade our street due to the excessively high line losses, but can’t move to a higher voltage without trimming the trees and there are some powerful folks who have thwarted this (every other street in this neighbourhood operates at 14.4); another example of bad politics trumping good engineering.
Cheers,
Paul
another example of bad politics trumping good engineering.
What would be a mechanism that could change this ?
Do you really want a mechanism to trump that little iota of local control - even if it is likely only exercised as a veto?
I have seen, more than once, where it's turned out to be very wise that a homeowner has had really BIG rocks, posts, etc around their house. It's to keep the cars from trying their best to go right through. What are known as "big ass" boulders, posts, etc have saved many lives, for those engaging in the practice of sitting in their living room, sleeping, etc in an environment where out-of-control cars are far more of a danger - even in your house! - than earthquakes, terrorist attack, lightning, meteors, or any of the other BS people in suburbia worry about.
Nice to hear the driver wasn't badly hurt, now maybe he'll consider the wise alternative, the bus.
Do you really want mob control of our infrastructure?
I think a better idea would be to put 'breakers' on the lines that supply the lower voltage lines. Maybe when they keep popping their breakers they will learn that their infrastructure needs to be upgraded.
I was watching the Charlie Ross show yesterday with the head of Shell America on it. He was saying that the pipelines in the Northeast haven't been upgraded in 30 years. (He also said we haven't build a new refinery in 30 years which is know is technically correct but we have done massive upgrades to the ones we have)
No new refineries in 30 years, and specifically the last seven, is the best economic and political evidence of peak oil.
If the oil majors really wanted and needed a new refinery, they would have seen a historic opportunity to push it though the Bush administration.
299 days, 1 hour and 56 minutes is simply not enough time, the door is closed.
It's the best evidence that we had massive overinvestment in refineries 1970s and 1980s and when the oil bubble collapsed it didn't make sense to build refineries.
Th US has a trading system in place for sulphur dioxide emission. This trading system has a tendency to favor existing installations over new build installations. So 'repairing' or 'refitting' an existing intsllation is chaeper than building a new one if one wants more capacity. And before you ask, refineries are major sulphur emitters.
Interesting tie to this - On the watt podcast #75 they discuss how the coal power plant reduction happened.
Lower heat content, lower sulfur coal was shipped in VS using 'local' higher heat, higher sulfur coal.
Thus lower sulfur emitted, higher CO2 emissions.
WHEEE!
Now I'll bet they wish they installed scrubbers (or whatever it is that captures the sulfur), and had "waste" sulfur to sell. Last I heard it was something like $900/ton.
No new refineries in 30 years? Existing refineries have been expanded as this is less costly than applying for environmental permits to build new ones. New refineries were being built overseas also. If you believe in peak oil you will find that a time is coming when there will be enough refineries, but not enough oil to refine.
Hello Rainsong,
Good points--I agree, but also without FFs, there additionally won't be much recovered sulfur for processing I-NPK and all the other critical uses of sulfur and sulfuric acid [not much is mined anymore]:
Powerpoint PDF on Sulphur:
http://www.choa.ab.ca/documents/Apr12TL-ppt.ppt
Recall that Gazprom wants to raise sulfur prices Sevenfold in 2008:
http://www.meed.com/petrochemicals/news/2008/02/maaden_to_dominate_ferti...
-------------------------
...Costs in Russia, a key rival, are set to escalate dramatically, with Gazprom set to raise sulphur prices more than sevenfold in 2008. Maaden, in contrast, will have access to cheap local sulphur.
"Maaden's sulphur will be cheaper than most," says Barrie Bain, director of Fertecon, a UK-based fertiliser consultancy. "But the phosphate rock will be expensive compared with Morocco and US producers who have their own rock. It depends on how Maaden accounts for the capital cost."
----------------------------
The postPeak battle to be a price-maker vs a price-taker is on! If I was an FF-exporter: I could further juice my profits by removing the sulphur first to later sell to constrained importers at a high profit. Why let the importing refineries make the sulfur bucks$$ when they refine the crude?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Recall my often posted phrase:
Sitting in the dark is pure luxury compared to starvation.
Another way to rephrase it is:
Taking away a person's gasoline or electro-juice just pisses them off, but take away their food or their NPK-ability to grow food--now your talking CONTROL.
Consider how easy it was to control Tadeusz Borowski, #119198:
http://dieoff.com/page226.htm
---------------------------------
THIS WAY FOR THE GAS, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
....Around here whoever has grub, has power.
---------------------------------
The new standard for local utility distribution voltage is 27,600 Volts (27.6 kV). Most utilities are upgrading to this voltage.
Old systems have a real mix; 13.8 4.4 etc. Line losses are proportional to the square of the line current. Double the current, quadruple the line losses. Upgrading a distribution system is not an easy task. That entails replacement of thousands of poles, lightning arrestors, transformers, autoreclosures, SCADA switches.
Distribution systems already have "breakers" installed throughout to protect equipment. They are in the form of substation circuit breakers, distribution line autoreclosures, and fusing at customer step-down transformers.
C'mon, where's the free marketeers ?
Shoot the Bastards in the Head............But seriously Sheeple, in the coming Fast Future, the politicians will stand and Fiddle while Rome burns. Listen to what is being said in the current Pigfest for the White House....
BZ
Hi RBM,
I confess I'm a bit torn by this. One of the things that very much attracted me to this street were the mature trees and the very dense canopy that stretches across the winding roadway. That said, the city is planning to install sidewalks so many of these trees will be removed, or at least the ones along my portion -- I expect the more affluent homeowners further down the road will be "spared".
Cheers,
Paul
The trees are worth more than the power lines or the sidewalks.
Hi Twilight,
I tend to agree. Whilst I appreciate the importance of pedestrian safety, I would hate to see trees lost to make way for a sidewalk. In terms of trimming for power lines, I just don't know; I guess it would depend on how much of the canopy would be affected.
With respect to democracy in action, it's more likely that one or two voices are being heard. Perhaps I’m too cynical, but I'm thinking one may be the guy with the 10,000 sq. ft. "guest house" equipped with a three story waterfall (I kid you not). BTW, wealth does not guarantee good taste... that place is butt ugly.
Cheers,
Paul
Got a picture for us to laugh at?
Hi free,
This Google map is out of date (a lot more has happened since then), but it's the property with the multiple boat slips. This person owns all of the homes at the tip of this land except for one (a little old lady refuses to sell), as well as the island where he maintains a second guest house.
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&num=10&lr=&as_fi...
If time permits I'll take a picture from across the basin later today. Of course, you probably won't be able to make out the "His and Her" Hummers.
Cheers,
Paul
IS burying (as in digging down) an upgraded power service an (expensive) option?
Pete
Hi Pete,
Sadly, prohibitively expensive (solid bedrock) and trenching would mean digging up a portion of the driveway and cutting through a retailing wall. If money were no object....
[My insurance company just reminded me of my $500.00 deductable....] :-(
Cheers,
Paul
Yeesh! Talk about excess. Must be Dick Cheney's secret hideout (and thus the owner is his secret identity).
Hi Free,
As promised, a picture of said house taken from across the Basin (believe me, the front side is no less flattering... =:-O
Note the roofline of the building to the immediate right of the power pole with the matching roof tile that transitions to glass.... that would be a three story "tiny some'em" he built on top of what appears to be gravel fill in the Google shot. From all accounts, this is still very much a "work-in-progress", so we're told there's a lot more yet to come.
See: http://www.datafilehost.com/download-fab6ce28.html
Best hopes for more cute little Cape Cods.
Cheers,
Paul
Too big for chickens and too small for cows, eh? I agree, tasteless and ugly. No offense to barns intended.
Don't worry, if barns are offended, they're offended by that house, not your comments.
Yuk - trees are more beautiful than that too. Even ugly trees.
You got end customer distribution on poles with uninsulated wires?
That is a lot of repairwork after a storm.
Hi MR,
Well, they are fully insulated but this one is undersized for two homes, one of which is all electric and so it had deteriorated badly. I'm guessing it would be rated for 100-amps and between us our panels would total 300-amps. I know NSP replaced the leg from this secondary pole to my mast with a notably thicker cable so that I could upgrade to a 200-amp service; what connects this y-joint to the transformer on the opposite side of the street is identical to what had originally run to my house.
Cheers,
Paul
You want/need a 200Amp supply? REALLY? Even at 110v that's still 22kW - how can you need that much? You obviously don't use electricity for heating from your comment about your neighbour, so where is all that energy going to go? Unless you've got an obscenely big house, surely a bit of energy conservation would pay great dividends? Sorry if I've got something wrong here...
If it were me, I might like one of those tankless electric water heaters. Here in Ontario, the electricity is about $0.05 (+0.05 legacy charges, etc), and comes from hydroelectric. It would probably cut my electricity bill by $20/month or so. Continuously keeping water hot is a waste. Still, during the few minutes per day they are on, those heaters take a lot of power.
Hi JW,
Will you be using most of your hot water during off-peak hours? If not, you're going to be dinged pretty damn hard once you're switched to TOU rates (all Ontario residents will be converted within the next couple years).
Cheers,
Paul
Generally, my peak use would be 8am (mid-peak), so I guess instead of the 10c I estimated, I might be paying about 12c/kwH. Now, given some off the top-of-my-head reasoning, I need to heat 130cm x 65 cm x 20cm of water (less than 200 liters) of water about 30c (15c to 45c) = 6e+6 calories = about 25e+6J. About 1.7kwH of electricity for one bath, say 20 cents. Maybe $6.00 per month once they put in the Time of Use rates. Now, standby use might be $50 - $100 per year? I wasn't able to find that, so maybe I'd only save that. Still, it doesn't matter whether you use the electricity in one shot at time of use, or slowly to bulk heat the water; the issue is that standby cost. $50 - $100 year isn't a lot, but it is something, and the other benefit is 4 square feet of living space in my condo.
http://www.hydroonenetworks.com/en/community/projects/smart_meters/faqs_...
Hi JW,
Other than the issue related to foot print, you might still be ahead with a conventional water heater under time control. A newer 180-litre tank with an EF of 0.92 or better would "leak" roughly 50-watts of heat or roughly 438 kWh per year. If your condo is electrically heated, you could pretty much slice that in half as these loses would simply offset what would normally be provided by your baseboard heaters (obviously less if your unit is heated with a heat pump or natural gas). During the summer months, we might assume each kWh of waste heat generates 0.3 kWh of a/c demand. Also, I'm fairly sure the energy component of Hydro One's off-peak rate is 3 cents per kWh, whereas the mid-peak is 7 cents, or more than double.
If I didn't have to head off to bed, I'd would spit the numbers through Quattro Pro.
Cheers,
Paul
A better direction, if feasible for you, is to store hot water from a solar hot water heating system. Or purchase a heat pump hot water heater instead if you are currently heating your water with electricity.
Hi nc,
No, I can understand your confusion. I'd like to have the flexibility of using either fuel oil or electricity depending upon their respective price and, if things go south, availability. I will be installing an electric hot water tank next month and at some point I'd like to add a second ductless heat pump to serve my lower level and possibly a small electric boiler beyond that. Alternatively, Nova Scotia Power offers inexpensive off-peak power to customers with electric thermal storage (ETS) units. At $0.053 per kWh, that's less than half the cost of home heating oil which is currently running between $0.12 to $0.13 per kWh(e) at 82% AFUE. A pony panel in the laundry room will allow me to feed the water heater, but everything else would require a service upgrade.
Cheers,
Paul
Don’t Miss This One!
Sadat Al Husseni on CNBC Video
Sadat Al Husseini, former ARAMCO Vice President, was on CNBC this morning. He said we have used about half global reserves and there is another half left out there. He said we are finding a lot less oil than we are consuming. Said the biggest future oil for the US is conservation. He was asked the peak oil question directly and he kind of danced around the question but, in my opinion, his answer made it quite clear that he was well aware of peak oil.
He said that it is costing $70 to $80 dollars per barrel to get at the new oil which is being brought on line now. He was talking about the very deep water stuff. It was a long interview and I probably did not rrmember it all correctly. But the link is above so listen to it yourself. I think you will find it very interesting. One thing that the interview showed was what such IDIOTS the CNBC regulars were. Some of their questions were unbelievable.
The interview is ten and one half minutes long.
Also a CNBC news flash on the Iraqi pipeline explosion.
CNBC video of Pipeline Explosion
Ron Patterson
My favorite question was the one that suggested that Peak Oilers claim that we are "running out" of oil. The other favorite way for cornucopian types to frame the Peak Oil debate is to claim that Peak Oilers assert that we "stop finding oil" once we peak.
The implication that they want to convey is that Peak Oilers think that we stop finding oil and then one day we suddenly go to zero. By framing the argument this way, any oil discovery--and continued oil production--can be used to refute their version of the Peak Oil argument.
However, as we have shown there are numerous cases of net oil exporters going to zero net exports pretty quickly. Have you noticed that CNBC has not had Jeff Rubin back on to discuss declining net oil exports?
Yes, that was a good one but my favorite part was where Husseini said: "We have used about half our global reserves and half is left out there". Then the CNBC guy asked: "You said we have used half, do you mean half the stuff that has already been processed and is already in barrels?"
In other words, he thought Husseini was saying that we have gone through about half our above ground inventory and still half that inventory left. Those guys simply have no concept of what Peak Oil really means.
Ron Patterson
The Squawk Box Gang regarding Peak Oil:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hear_speak_see_no_evil_Toshogu.jpg
It's called a straw man. And it's not surprising considering the fact that besides evil child molesters, the news is always tempered toward good.
And net exports going to zero are very bad.
Not completely idiotic, I think. The female anchor (I don't know her name) said::
around 6-7 minutes. Personally I think she was baiting him to slip and say OPEC doesn't have the ability to increase production.
Squeek Blab regulars = stock pumpers. Good ol Joe was a stock jock. The regulars are always telling people to 'buy stocks, they are a good deal at these levels.'
A little analysis will destroy their claim. As WT has pointed out, stocks are overpriced since the amount of FFs that the US will be able to afford going forward will be less than the current perception. How would the US afford enough oil to pay down the huge debts it has amassed? Another problem with stock prices is that at current levels I do not see a recession priced in and P/E (forward looking) ratios are skewed by over optimisim. Anyone that currently owns stocks tied to discretionary spending or financial or RE stocks is asking for trouble. I see few bargains in stocks now...even solid multinational manufacturers are going to be effected by oil constraints and the disaster that housing deflation in the US and EU economies is causing.
There are only two choices going forward. Inflation or deflation. Neither is appealing and right now we have a bit of both showing up in the US economy. I do not believe that the Fed can inflate enough to overcome trillions of $s of RE losses and I believe that deflation will happen eventually. That said, I will add that I have been wrong at least once a day for my entire life. :)
At around 5:50 CNBC asks Husseni, "how are we going to conserve if prices haven't been reducing demand yet", and Husseni, is like "don't worry you will feel it this summer or later in the year".
Now that's a bullish indicator.
I'll say.
Ya, that line really propped up my eyebrows.
Is there any way to download this video, e.g. via keepvid.com? Doesn't seem to work for me. (Keepvid works great for youtube videos.)
Vt...
I used to use various Firefox add-ons too. (UnPlug still works in FF2.0 and would grab your video.)
Then recently after an OS "refresh"... I had cause to download Real Player.
Now I know that historically Real was considered nuisance-ware.
However, version 11 has a surprise... a download manager that shows a pop-up "Save this video" on any streaming video. Works in both IE7 and FF.
Checked with above video and it offered to save.
And Real no longer inserts itself all over your OS.
Not a solution for me: dial-up at home, can't "install" software at work. Keepvid.com lets me download at work, then watch it at home.
Also, I will never trust Real-anything. Even if it seems benign now, I consider them spyware.
Is there any other solution?
A low bitrate audio-only version (2.5 megabytes) for the bandwidth-impaired is now here. (Or here: directly to the MP3 file.)
Iraq's main export pipeline in the south destroyed
Oil prices have risen above $107 a barrel after one of Iraq's main export pipelines is blown up.
A company official said damage would cut Basra's exports by a third, adding to supply fears and increasing concern about stability in the region.
"We see events in Iraq as having taking a dangerous turn with the stability of the southern oil system now starting to become a potential concern," said Barclays Capital analysts in a note.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7316138.stm
The surge is working!
That's EXACTLY what the Pentagon said yesterday!
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hCRQcD2TIGwoSyU_ODCiwSBbdlMA
After watching "Bush's War" on Frontline I didn't think the spin could get worse (in the Bush Adminstration).
I watched it also. The entire time I was waiting for a good discussion of motivation. I can accept that Cheney was simply motivated by the oil. But what about the neocons, Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld. They were pushing the Iraq invasion by the morning of the 12th. Why?
The Power of Nightmares: Baby It's Cold Outside
The Power of Nightmares: Phantom Victory
The Power of Nightmares: Shadows In The Cave
About one hour apiece, all on Google video. That will start to answer your question.
Welaka said
!
To help Israel?
I had read that Israel did not consider Sadaam to be their most serious threat. Was Iranian backed Hezbollah a worse threat?
Look up PNAC and read it. Document was finished over a year before Bush was president. Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bush, et al. were involved in writing it.
Well, the surge was working. Oh wait, nope. Nevermind. That was just the Mahdi Army taking a breather.
Well the surge is working, but it's not the surge the media are talking about. The media are talking about the surge in soldiers that is working, but it's the surge in bribes and pay-offs that is working.
All the different factions in Iraq are being paid massive amounts of money to stop blowing up Americans, so there's less pressure from congress to 'bring em back home'. Of course, a few weeks before Bush leaves office, the payments stop so the violence will start in full again once Obama comes into office and gets blamed by the lunatic mass attack media.
Time to up the payments, I guess. American workers should try it.
NPR had someone on yesterday about these "payments".
You do not BUY their co-operation - you RENT it.
Rent might be due.
Pete
Yes, I would imagine there was a big surge in oil through that hole in the pipeline.
Cid--
They captured one of the propaganda puppets for the occupation also:
Iraqi Spokesman Kidnapped in Baghdad
By KIM GAMEL, Associated Press Writer
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Printable Version
Email This Article
(2)
(03-27) 07:01 PDT BAGHDAD, (AP) --
An Interior Ministry official says the civilian spokesman for the Baghdad security operation has been kidnapped and three bodyguards killed.
Tahseen Sheikhly is a Sunni who often appeared with U.S. military and embassy officials at news conferences to tout the successes of the crackdown that began in Baghdad and surrounding areas more than a year ago.
The official says gunmen stormed Sheikhly's house Thursday in a Mahdi Army stronghold in southeastern Baghdad and torched it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to release the information.
Good luck to them finding someone to take his place.
It's probably telling that old Baghdad Bob never had to worry about being kidnapped by gunmen.
About a year (?) ago the tourisim minister was kidnapped. Sorry, I had to laugh when I heard that one. Somehow Iraq doesn't strike me as a big tourist destination.
Lots of Iranians visit the Shia Shrines and mosques (including the blown up one) in Iraq. And assorted Senators. And that is about it.
Alan
Don't forget the contractors (mercenaries). I've heard stories (i.e. Rolling Stone a year or so ago) some got over there with little more than the clothes on their back and ended up with large government contracts.
Of course that may not count as 'tourism' in the traditional sense...
The case of Baghdad Bob (aka Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, "Comical Ali") http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baghdad_Bob has always struck me as particularly curious.
Amid all the vindictive, recriminatory, and downright illegal behaviour of the Bush regime towards top-level Saddam-era Baathists, he was apparently let off the hook for no other reason than his humour value. According to the Wiki entry, "He is now living in the United Arab Emirates with his family."
Bush was known to stop everything in order to watch al-Sahhaf's apearances on TV in the immediate aftermath of the invasion - and they certainly had a blackly humorous aspect to them. It really seems like his entertainment value have led to his continued freedom. Kinda uplifting, as well as bizarre.
Regards Chris
Yes Bob was almost as entertaining and delusional as Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and all the various spokesman for the Bush White House and the Pentagon. Oh, and it continues even today as Bush is saying that this latest chaos in Iraq shows that the surge is working. But Bob was a harmless comedian. These guys and gals are another story.
"Bush is saying that this latest chaos in Iraq shows that the surge is working."
i think he means it is "working" to facilitate the looting of the treasury.
Good point - Was he really any more preposterous, any more absolutely, totally wrong?
Chris,
That is quite interesting, thanks.
Take care,
Chris
"As I have warned before, every American ground unit in Iraq needs its own plan to get itself out of the country using only its own resources and whatever it can scrounge locally. Retreat to the north, through Kurdistan into Turkey, will be the only alternative open to most U.S. Army units, other than ending up in an Iranian POW camp."
Gen. Petraeus calls President Bush and repeats the famous words of Ducrot at Sedan: Nous sommes dans un pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés. Bush thinks he's overheard Petraeus ordering dinner – as, for Bush, he has.
http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?articleid=12583
With the British still holed up.
And I think two pipelines, the other West of Baghdad, have been blown.
They should all be issued copies of Xenophon's Anabasis as required reading
You could be correct.
US deploys nuclear sub to Persian Gulf
An American nuclear submarine has crossed the Suez Canal to join the US fleet stationed in the Persian Gulf, Egyptian sources say.
Egyptian officials reported that the nuclear submarine crossed the canal along with a destroyer on Friday and Egyptian forces were put on high alert when the navy convoy was passing through the canal. An American destroyer recently left the Persian Gulf, heading towards the Mediterranean Sea; earlier Thursday, a US Navy rescue ship crossed the canal to enter the Red Sea.
The deployment comes as recent reports allege that US Vice President Dick Cheney is seeking to rally the support of Middle Eastern states for launching an attack on Iran. This is while US officials deny that Cheney's Mideast tour is linked to a possible military attack on Iran.
According to the latest reports, in recent months a major part of the US Navy has been deployed in and around the Persian Gulf. The fleet is armed with nuclear weapons and cruise missiles and carries hundreds of aircraft and rapid reaction forces.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=48682&ionid=351020205
They are concentrating on supply lines.
Fuel supplies for US troops hit
Some 40 road tankers supplying fuel to American troops in Afghanistan have been destroyed by suspected pro-Taleban militants on the border with Pakistan.
The attack on the fuel tankers took place at about 2000 local time on Sunday.
Local officials said two explosions were heard in an area where more than 100 fuel lorries had been parked for the night, waiting to cross the border and deliver fuel to US forces in Afghanistan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7311064.stm
Ahh, that's how the US/Allies fought WWII. Cutting off supply lines. Subs in the Pacific were tasked with sinking oil tankers, and in Europe a major turn in the war was Hitler's not reaching oil fields in eastern Europe.
Hitler's war machine was the biggest and baddest on the planet. Japan was no slouch too.
The way to defeat a big, bad war machine you can't take on head-on, is to slowly squeeze it to death.
I'm not saying an attack on Iran won't happen, but I have been reading 'attack on Iran imminent' reports almost weekly since 2002.
It might happen, and somebody is bound to call it correctly sheer chance, but that is all it will be - chance. If and when it happens, there will be no more or less chatter on the web in the days before.
I disagree. To fly enough sorties against Iran, the bastards will want to move USAF squadrons closer, and someone will spot it.
However, if you're talking about a nuclear attack, you're absolutely right. It would be done without warning, a fait accompli to smear the hands of the American people with so much blood that they will fear the vengeance of the outside world and cling closer to their GOP-designated tyrant for protection. I must admit, nothing less than a nuclear attack can change the facts on the ground and the neocons love changing facts.
Largest single-unit deployment of Army National Guard soldiers since World War II
It was about 80 days ago that the 37th Infantry Brigade Combat Team mobilized and began training at North Fort Hood, preparing for the largest single-unit deployment of Army National Guard soldiers since World War II.
On Thursday, March 27, nearly a week after their training ended, the brigade held a deployment ceremony and began shipping troops to Kuwait.
http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/...
There has always been a danger of this. However, in its corrupt fashion the US has given itself a way out recently. A popular uprising would drive us out of the cities, but we could hole up in our desert bases and patch things up with the Reawakening Councils by actually paying them (get 'em some Bear Stearns stock - it seems to be worth whatever the Fed says it is). The desert Sunni tribes would love for the Sadrists to try to project power across open ground. I believe the "councils" really take their orders from the House of Saud and Afghan War mastermind Turki al-Faisal anyway, so it comes down to: do the Sauds want America to be utterly crushed, or merely to be knocked down a few pegs? If the Sauds want our forces to remain as a tripwire against a larger future Iranian incursion, then they will find a way to get us enough supplies from the West and South. As for our Iraqi allies and foreign contractors, well, the videos of their mutilation by the victorious rebels will serve Bush's purposes.
Bush has never hesitated to sacrifice American troops for political ends, and if he doesn't mind the colossal expense he can keep those bases supplied by air for months and ramp up the fear in America. At least one of the presidential candidates isn't afraid to babble about "100 years".
We're still in Guantanamo after 50 years of Castro.
The author of that article fails to understand the Bush administration and DOD's attitude towards the kind of scenario that he paints. In short, the response would be massive nuclear tactical warheads against Iranian forces, even those in Iraq. Tactical nukes would even be employed against Iranian militias in that event. The US would not allow its forces to go down without using every tool at its disposal and if this meant turning Tehran into green glass, they would do exactly that.
Note that I am not supporting or advocating this. Note that I do not want this to happen. But as someone who is ex-military, I can assure you that it will occur if Iran gets the upper hand in such a scenario. The Bush administration will risk nuclear war before they will accept defeat.
The Bush administration will risk nuclear war before they will accept defeat.
*shudder*
Why do I fear this as a truth?
As I have warned before, every American ground unit in Iraq needs its own plan to get itself out of the country using only its own resources and whatever it can scrounge locally.
Guess they need to figure it out fast.
US-backed Iraq Government may fall
Iraq’s Prime Minister was staring into the abyss today after his operation to crush militia strongholds in Basra failed, members of his own security forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia militia gunmen.
While the Mahdi Army has not officially renounced its six-month ceasefire, which has been a key component in the recent security gains, on the ground its fighters were chasing police and soldiers from their positions across Baghdad.
In Baghdad, the Mahdi Army took over neighbourhood after neighbourhood, some amid heavy fighting, others without firing a shot.
In New Baghdad, militiamen simply ordered the police to leave their checkpoints: the officers complied en masse and the guerrillas stepped out of the shadows to take over their checkpoints.
In Baghdad, thousands of people marched in demonstrations, burning effigies of Mr al-Maliki, whom they branded a new dictator, and carrying coffins with his image on it.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3631718.ece?toke...
Baghdad's Green Zone is red hot target
On Thursday, the State Department instructed all Embassy personnel not to leave reinforced structures. A memo sent to embassy staff and obtained by The Associated Press says employees are required to wear helmets and other protective gear if they must venture outside and strongly advises them to sleep in blast-resistant locations instead of trailers.
For the fourth day this week, suspected Shiite militiamen sent rockets and mortars into the Green Zone in central Baghdad. The volleys on Thursday began in the morning and came in about once an hour well into nightfall.
The first wave of rockets this week came on Easter Sunday. The Green Zone -- and areas nearby -- have barely had a breather since.
The attacks on the Green Zone are being carried out in tandem with growing clashes between Iraqi government forces and the Mahdi Army militia led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
By bombarding the Green Zone, the followers of al-Sadr are not only targeting the Iraqi government, but also the hub of the American political mission and its influence on the Iraqi government.
At least one death was reported inside the Green Zone in the latest attacks. Embassy spokeswoman Mirembe Nantongo said a U.S. government employee was killed, but would give no further details until relatives are notified.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of security concerns, said one round earlier this week hit a main helicopter landing zone used by the U.S. forces, putting it temporarily out of commission. Housing used by some U.S. officials and contractors was also hit, the official said.
"All personnel are required to wear body armor, helmet and protective eye wear any time they are outside of building structures in the International Zone," said embassy spokeswoman Nantongo, using the official name of the area. "Beyond that, we don't discuss our security posture."
The official -- who has been through other attacks -- described the recent barrages as "qualitatively different."
Another U.S. official said that personnel -- who usually sleep two to a trailer on the embassy grounds -- are now sleeping inside the former Saddam palace where their offices are located. "There are cots everywhere," the U.S. official said. "People are scouting out free couches."
"There is a sense of hunkering down for a sustained period of time," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of security restrictions.
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/national_world&id=6046932
Reminds one a bit of the Tet offensive in the Nam...
Then there is the timing of this operation to consider. If Malaki's intention was to suppress the Mahdi Army prior to an attack on Iran he has instead shown how weak his government and control are. Now the world realizes that Malaki is a paper tiger, something only suspected before. This is a very important event.
On the other side of the coin, the Mahdi Army might have wanted to show their strength in Iraq to forestall an attack on Iran. The US does not want to attack Iran and lose their whole ground force, or lots of it, in Iraq.
In any case this does not look good for the surge, especially since Cheney has been making the rounds in the ME, beating his chest.
The chess match continues...the Persians invented the game.
Reminds one a bit of the Tet offensive in the Nam...
or the '72 Easter Offensive.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Offensive
The chess match continues...the Persians invented the game.
No, the Indians did.
don't forget the chinese, they're playing too. except they're playing go.
"The official -- who has been through other attacks -- described the recent barrages as "qualitatively different."
Another U.S. official said that personnel -- who usually sleep two to a trailer on the embassy grounds -- are now sleeping inside the former Saddam palace where their offices are located. "There are cots everywhere," the U.S. official said. "People are scouting out free couches."
"There is a sense of hunkering down for a sustained period of time," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of security restrictions."
This is not Tet. Tet was a frontal assault. Almost the entire
SVietNamese Cadre was wiped out.
IMHO, we're at Pleiku, February 1975.
With US Forces palying advisor to Maliki's SCIRI/Badr Brigades
being ARVN.
"Power cuts and shift workers unable to reach their work places in oil fields and pumping stations have reduced Iraq's crude oil production and exports," the official said by telephone from Basra. "If the government doesn't take necessary measures to reduce power cuts and help oil workers reach their work places and transport food to workers in these work places, production would be suspended as soon as tomorrow (Friday)," the SOC official said, adding workers cannot reach their work places and there is a lack of food because of the curfew imposed by the government in and around Basra province.
Basra produces more than 80% of Iraq's total output of 2.4 million barrels a day. In Baghdad, a senior Iraqi oil official said military operations in Basra could halt Iraq's crude oil exports from southern terminals for a few days. "The military operations in Basra could suspend Iraqi crude oil exports for a few days," the official said by telephone from Baghdad.
I recall that the Fadhila (Virtue) party, who control the local Basra government, claimed credit for a brief oil production strike last year, which would mean that Fadhila has good connections with the powerful Iraqi oil employees' union.
Fadhila shares ideology with Sadr, but was created by a rival lieutenant of Sadr's father or uncle. Has anyone heard Fadhila's position on Maliki's massive invasion of its turf? Do its leaders foolishly believe that what is done to destroy one opposition party will not be done to another opposition party?
Long before the Iraq War, I heard something by a British military historian about insurgencies in general. He said that for an insurgency to be successful, it needed 3 things: (1) a numerical force equal to more than 1/4 of the occupying force (it needs to not be outnumbered 3-1) (2) A deep rear support base, and (3) support from the local populace.
It is useful to think of the current Iraq conflict in these terms. For item (1), the potential number of insurgents is certainly much larger than 1/4 of the U.S. and coalition force. For item (2), the insurgents have a number of potential deep support bases, in Syria, Iran, and even other areas in countries more friendly to the U.S. However, the surge has had some success largely due to (3), since in Iraq's large Sunni Anbar province the local population has turned against the insurgents. The remaining issue will be the disposition of the majority Shiite population; there the eventual attitude of the population is still uncertain.
"since in Iraq's large Sunni Anbar province the local population has turned against the insurgents."
You source for this is what?
Anything other than US/UK Mil, Maliki Puppet Gov't will be accepted.
I didn't come up with recent info immediately, so I offer this:
I read Pat Lang regularly for info
in this area at Sic Semper Tyrannis 2007.
Read his bio ( I won't post it here )as it's extensive in the ME and he has consistently critical of the administration in ways that only a 'soldier's soldier' can be.
He has touched on this aspect
before ('07):
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2007/08/iraq-tribal-s...
Thank you.
I also read Pat Lang. But he's off base here.
First, as he sources Pincus on Al Qaeda.
Pincus is CIA. CIA started Al Qaeda. And has infiltrated it from top to bottom.
BBC NEWS | UK | Spy lifts lid on al-Qaeda
Nov 16, 2006 ... It is rare to get an insider's perspective on the emergence of al-Qaeda. It is also rare to get a glimpse of the world of spies and agents. ...
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6156180.stm - 51k - Cached - Similar pages
FOXNews.com - Report: Al Qaeda Spies Believed to Have Infiltrated ...
Mar 9, 2008 ... Report: Al Qaeda Spies Believed to Have Infiltrated British Police Force, ... SEE MORE, - United Nations, - The Americas, - Europe, - Asia ...
www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,336261,00.html - 46k - Cached - Similar pages
Terror moles at the Met | News | News of the World
A NEST of Al-Qaeda terror spies has been uncovered in Britain's top police force. MI5 agents have identified FOUR London Met officers after searching for a ...
www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/0903_alqaeda.shtml - 47k - Cached - Similar pages
MI5 targets four Met police officers 'working as Al Qaeda spies ...
Warning: Terror moles reportedly work in the Met Four police officers in Britain's top force are reportedly under close secret service surveillance after ...
www.thisislondon.co.uk/.../article.do - Similar pages
Islamist sleeper cell in Scotland Yard: report - World - smh.com.au
Mar 10, 2008 ... Scotland Yard refuses to comment on a report that an al-Qaeda sleeper cell has infiltrated London's police HQ.
www.smh.com.au/news/world/alqaeda-spies-in-scotland-yard/2008/03/10/1204...
When, in actuality, the opposite is true (whicih is how you know that all of the sourcing above is totally untrue!).
" U.S. and Allied Intelligence Services Had Penetrated The Very Highest Levels of Al Qaeda Prior to 9/11
I linked to an in-depth profile of the police chief for Fallijuh (sp) in Anbar Province in the Washington Post last week.
Former Republican Guard officer, former insurgent, nasty character, now on "our side" (but he wants us to leave, so he doesn't have to be so nice). $190/month for those that change sides. Allies of convenience.
Not Much Hope,
Alan