DrumBeat: April 7, 2008
Posted by Leanan on April 7, 2008 - 9:01am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Gasoline Demand to Drop for First Time Since 1991
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will use less gasoline this summer than last year, the first drop for that season since 1991, said Guy Caruso, administrator of the Energy Information Administration.Demand is expected to fall by 85,000 barrels a day, Caruso told reporters today at a Washington conference. In 1991, summer gasoline use fell 1.4 percent following a 9-month recession during George H.W. Bush's presidency.
Canada is in the middle of a quiet oil boom
Ft. McMurray, Alberta - With oil prices hovering near a hundred dollars a barrel, there’s a major oil boom underway. It’s not happening in the sweltering heat of Texas or the dry desert of Saudi Arabia, but on the frozen Canadian tundra where oil producers are developing a new source of fossil fuel.
Misfortune hit Wilkes Barre hard twice in recent history. The first time was one day in 1959 when coal miners working a vein under the Susquehanna River made an error in judgment and poked a hole up through the river bed, flooding miles of interconnected mineshafts under half the county. For days after that, workers threw in every kind of material at hand to close up the hole in the river bottom -- gravel, boulders, parts of old buildings, whole trucks -- but nothing availed until the mines drank up all the river water they could hold. That was the end of the anthracite industry in Wilkes Barre. More than 30,000 miners lost their paychecks forever.
Bike-sharing services roll into the U.S.

City commuters weary of stuffy journeys aboard buses and subways now have a better way to get to work, buy groceries and meet for a Saturday matinee. The bike-sharing programs that have transformed Europeans into two-wheeled travelers are now en route to the U.S.
Regional nuclear conflict would create near-global ozone hole
A limited nuclear weapons exchange between Pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near-global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and wreaking environmental havoc for at least a decade, according to a study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Oil jumps nearly $3 on Europe refinery trouble
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil rose nearly $3 on Monday to past $109 a barrel as a fire at a European refinery stirred fresh fuel supply concerns.Finnish refiner Neste Oil said repairs and maintenance on a diesel unit at its 200,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Porvoo refinery would stretch through May following a fire on Friday.
The news pushed prices for London gas oil, a fuel closely related to diesel and heating oil, to a record $1,005 a tonne and led U.S. heating oil and crude prices sharply higher on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dealers said.
Gasoline prices add to record gains
NEW YORK - Gas prices rose further into record territory Monday, pulled higher by resurgent oil futures and a growing belief that gasoline supplies are falling as the summer driving season approaches.
Trees block solar panels, and a feud ends in U.S. court
SUNNYVALE, California: Call it an eco-parable: one Prius-driving couple take pride in their eight redwoods, the first of them planted over a decade ago. Their electric-car-driving neighbors take pride in their rooftop solar panels, installed five years after the first trees were planted.Trees - redwoods, live oaks or blossoming fruit trees - are usually considered sturdy citizens of the sun-swept peninsula south of San Francisco, not criminal elements. But under a 1978 state law protecting homeowners' investment in rooftop solar panels, trees that impede solar panels' access to the sun can be deemed a nuisance and their owners fined up to $1,000 a day. The Solar Shade Act was an obscure curiosity until late last year, when a dispute over the eight redwoods (a k a Tree No. 1, Tree No. 2, Tree No. 3, etc.) ended up in Santa Clara County criminal court.
Mexico's oil crisis stirs a political drama
MEXICO CITY: A bitter debate over what to do about the ailing state oil monopoly has dominated national politics in Mexico in recent weeks, tapping strong emotions on both sides and resurrecting the political fortunes of the leftist leader who narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election.
Shell chief favours cross-border cooperation over competition to cut CO2
BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc.'s chief executive Jeroen van der Veer said the group favours a scenario to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions which promotes cross-border cooperation rather than countries rushing to secure energy resources for themselves.
Global Warming gets the cold freeze: Global warming hoax exposed by record global cold
The recent Global Warming hysteria is in reality a geopolitical push by leading global elite circles to find a way to get the broader populations to willingly accept drastic cuts in their living standards, something that were it demanded without clear reason by politicians, would spark strikes and protest. The UN’s latest IPCC report on Global Warming calls for diverting a huge 12% of global GDP to “prevent the harmful effects of climate change.” The UN report, for example, estimated that its recommendations to reduce certain manmade emissions would cost about $2,750 per family per year in the price of energy....Cheney and his close Houston friend, Matt Simmons, propagated the myth of Peak Oil to lull populations into accepting the inevitability of $100 a barrel or even higher oil prices. In the meantime, the relative strength of the Big Oil and the related US military establishment grew with higher oil prices.
Energy Secretary says pump price may hit $3.50/gallon
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on Monday he is concerned that average U.S. gasoline pump prices could hit $3.50 a gallon this summer, and said he is "optimistic" that OPEC will come to the rescue of U.S. drivers...."I have repeatedly asked that there be an increase," Bodman said. "They have so far chosen not to do it. I remain optimistic."
Anadarko Bids Adios To Venezuela
Anadarko is happily handing over its Venezuelan operations to PetroFalcon at a fire-sale price. The seller has been wanting to divest for awhile as Hugo Chavez's bully tactics and nationalizing sticky fingers make operations in his territory very risky business.
Apache: CAPS All-Star ResearchLover defies what's lately become accepted Wisdom, declaring, "Great company, love that they recover from waning oil fields, adding value. But I think (unfortunately) peak oil isn't here yet and the market will realize this in short order."
Mr van Kersen also warned against the impact of rising costs – up 24 per cent in the past year as higher fuel, spare parts and labour costs impacted.That theme was taken up by veteran industry analyst, Peter Strachan who said "peak oil" posed a major threat to the industry. Mr Strachan said oil-reliant mechanisation would stem any future growth in gold production volumes.
OPEC exports down 100,000 bpd 4 wks to Mar 23
LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to March 23, mostly on slippage from Gulf producers, data released by Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit showed on Monday.LMIU said shipments from 11 OPEC producers, including Iraq, fell to an average of 22.104 million bpd in the peroid, versus 22.201 in the previous four weeks to Feb. 25.
Market may kill BP gas terminal
Although BP lost the legal battle to build a liquefied natural gas terminal on the Delaware River, the more than two-year delay -- rather than its loss to Delaware in the U.S. Supreme Court -- could kill BP's project.The London-based petroleum giant says it is still considering several alternative sites along the river outside Delaware waters, but industry experts and BP itself say radical changes in energy markets over the past two years make the project a greater financial risk.
The current global energy squeeze and approvals for other Atlantic Coast LNG terminals could determine BP's fate long before the next court fight or debate over risks to the public.
Shell mulls floating LNG unit off Australia
PERTH (Reuters) - Anglo-Dutch oil major Royal Dutch Shell is considering using floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) production technology for a gas field off Western Australia, a company executive said on Monday.
Increased Energy Prices Slowing Global Economy
As the price of energy grows, the connections become stressed and frayed. A world with more expensive energy is a less connected world. When you stop throwing cheap energy at an economy, its total growth slows down and the real growth becomes more isolated and selective.
Record high gas prices force towns to adapt
What towns expected for fuel costs were not record highs, and as the budget year winds down those budget lines are overspent. The new fiscal year begins in July and some towns may have to postpone construction projects until then to avoid a deficit."It does not bode well for the municipalities," said Bennington Town Manager Stuart Hurd. "When you're in the hole, you cut projects. We find ways to do less, we find other ways to conserve."
ONGC To Acquire 40% Interest In Venezuelan Oil Block For $450 Million
India's state-run Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC) is to acquire a 40 percent participating interest in the San Christobal oilfield in Venezuela for about $450 million, according to a government official.
Petrobras to Spend $15 Billion to Double Oil Output
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, will invest $15 billion on overseas oil projects, aiming to double its crude oil production to capture growing demand in Asia and South America.
Lula urges Brazil oil rig output despite costs
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva backed on Monday national production of oil platforms to create jobs in Brazil even if it will cost state-run oil company Petrobras more than to lease them abroad.
Indonesia plays down oil price hike impact
"Should the subsidies rise, the hike could be financed from the increase of oil price itself. And should it is not sufficient, the hike would be financed from the cut of 10 percent of the ministries budget," Mulyani told a joint press conference after a cabinet meeting at the State Palace here.
Power to the workers: South Africa's largest black empowerment deal
South Africa's largest black empowerment deal to date has received a broad welcome. The Sasol transaction has set a new benchmark for future arrangements.
Canada: China's shopping spree
It has taken over three years, but a growing string of transactions suggests that China, in its quest to buy mining resources anywhere and everywhere, is back in town.
India: Existing vehicles not ready for 10% blending
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) is conducting a study with the oil marketing companies to study the impact on existing vehicles.These vehicles are not capable of running on 10 per cent ethanol-blended petrol as ethanol releases more heat and can corrode vehicle engines, experts say.
Chile plans to dam Patagonia wilderness
One of Patagonia's least-known waterways, the Pascua runs through an uninhabited area in southern Chile. It takes meltwater from the Patagonian Ice Field, the largest expanse of permanent ice outside Antarctica and Greenland, for 38 tumultuous miles through steep granite valleys to one of the many fjords that serrate the southern coastline."This valley is pristine and intact," said Sanger, 50, a campaigner at the Berkeley environmental group International Rivers. "Yet if the power companies get their way, this valley will be irreversibly damaged."
Connecticut's Clean Energy Policy Creating Demand
The aggressive policy in Connecticut, combined with similar requirements in neighboring states, is sparking an unprecedented demand for renewable power in the region. The idea is to prod alternative sources of electricity to spring up as all consumers pay more for the extra benefits of clean generation.But even with a rush of proposals and widespread political support, there is a growing debate over whether the fledgling and disparate alternative energy industry can meet the rising requirements. Even at this year's level, some say it's a struggle.
Striking a balance on climate warnings
Are doom and gloom assessments on climate change helpful or harmful?
A silver bullet for global warming
"There is a silver bullet," he told the group gathered at the InterContinental. "No more coal."In a coastal impact study that he co-authored with Kristina Kershner, Mazria notes that buildings account for 48 percent of energy consumption and building operations are responsible for 43 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Add to this the facts that 76 percent of all electricity produced at U.S. power plants goes to buildings and that coal is a major source of inexpensive energy at these plants, and you can see the dilemma.
So, Mazria argues, make buildings more energy efficient and there won't be a need for additional coal-fired power plants.
A Manhattan or Apollo Project for Energy? What Nonsense
As handy metaphors for all-out government concentration on a clearly identified technological goal, Manhattan and Apollo are winners. But care should be taken in extrapolating their success to today’s energy problems. The big difference is that Manhattan had one customer, the U.S. Army, and Apollo also had only one, NASA (with a pork-happy Congress cheering it on). The goals were clear: Beat the Nazis to the bomb and the Soviets to the moon. Financed with blank checks, run by chiefs appropriately referred to as “czars,” and unimpeded by diverse political and economic interests, the two projects decisively proceeded to their successful conclusions.In contrast, our energy and climate-change problems originate more in political, economic, and cultural entanglements than in technological deficiencies.
Philippines: The rice shortage and the folly of blaming the Catholic Church
Bring up the topic of an unmanageable population, a worrisome rice shortage, and other issues related to demography and soon some voice starts raving against the Catholic Church and its position against artificial means of contraception. We deftly play the blame game in this country. Someone must be blamed; some head must roll! That is of course much easier than taking to the couch to find out for ourselves what the matter might be with our collective psyche.

Unscientific assumptions in economic theory are undermining efforts to solve environmental problemsThe 19th-century creators of neoclassical economics—the theory that now serves as the basis for coordinating activities in the global market system—are credited with transforming their field into a scientific discipline. But what is not widely known is that these now legendary economists — William Stanley Jevons, Leon Walras, Maria Edgeworth and Vilfredo Pareto — developed their theories by adapting equations from 19th-century physics that eventually became obsolete. Unfortunately, it is clear that neoclassical economics has also become outdated. The theory is based on unscientific assumptions that are hindering the implementation of viable economic solutions for global warming and other menacing environmental problems.
(see also Brother, Can You Spare Me a Planet?)
Rising populations. Skyrocketing commodity prices. Strains on natural resources. Is this our Malthusian moment?Is the ghost of Thomas Robert Malthus stalking the global economy? Sad to say, it sure seems like it.
Malthus was a key figure in the 18th and early 19th century in developing modern mainstream economics. (And Darwin hit on the idea of natural selection after reading Malthus' Essay on Population.) But Malthus is best remembered for his grim argument that there is a tendency from "the wretched inhabitants of Tierra del Fuego" to "the beggars of Teshoo Loomboo" for population growth to outstrip resources.
Peak Oil: Russia's oil production is coming down
MOSCOW: Oil production in Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world, is coming down drastically, says a new study.Studies on Russian oil production by Aram Mäkivierikko say that the country has not been able to increase its oil production for three months in a row now. The production have been hanging slightly below the maximum of 9,93 Mbpd that was reached last year in October.
The report said if their oil production is stagnating, the impact is therefore going to be significant. Output has declined by between 0.5% to 1.5% for most major Russian producers, including the state-controlled Rosneft. Only LUKOIL and Tatneft managed to increase their output by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.
China to give crude tax rebate to help refiners
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has agreed to grant a hefty tax rebate on crude imports to help oil firms limit heavy refining losses, instead of increasing fuel prices that would stoke inflation, a government source said on Monday.Under the scheme proposed by oil firms and endorsed by the State Council last month, Beijing is set to cut the 17 percent value-added tax on crude imports by three-quarters, said the official source familiar with the policy.
Oil climbs more, OPEC sees no shortage
"The biggest surprises could be on the supply side. Non-OPEC supply is just not going up this year," Paul Horsnell, oil analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
Cost of gas up 5 cents in the last two weeks
CAMARILLO, Calif. - A survey says the national average price for gasoline rose 5 cents over the last two weeks.The average price of self-serve regular gasoline on Friday was $3.32 a gallon, mid-grade was $3.44 and premium was $3.55. That's according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 stations nationwide released Sunday.
China to cap power consumption of copiers amid energy saving drive
BEIJING (Xinhua) -- China will soon promulgate energy consumption standards for copy machines to save electricity as a national power strain looms large.Up to 10 percent of the current duplicators, which failed to meet the new standards, would be forced out of the market, said senior engineer Chen Haihong of the China National Institute of Standardization.
Iran joined militias in battle for Basra
IRANIAN forces were involved in the recent battle for Basra, General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, is expected to tell Congress this week.Military and intelligence sources believe Iranians were operating at a tactical command level with the Shi’ite militias fighting Iraqi security forces; some were directing operations on the ground, they think.
Trinidad & Tobago: Sweet in we mouth
n July of last year I wrote a series of articles linking Peak Oil (the increase in demand over foreseeable supply of petroleum) to our Government's revenue, tourism, food prices and availability, and in general the impact of the Government's fiscal policy on inflation and the Central Bank's open market response to this profligate spending.
Londoners could pay $50 a day to drive in city
LONDON - As New York commuters brace for possible charges for driving into the midtown area, they can at least be thankful they don't live in London, where Mayor Ken Livingstone has staked his re-election hopes on boosting the "congestion tax" to as much as $50 a day.
Forest destruction for palm oil continues in Indonesia: Greenpeace
JAKARTA, Indonesia: Indonesia's peat land forests are still being cut down to make way for palm oil plantations despite government pledges to stop the destruction, the environmental group Greenpeace said Monday.Indonesia is the biggest global emitter of greenhouse gases, blamed for global warming, through deforestation and third behind the United States and China in terms of total man-made emissions.
Web site restores ‘abortion’ as search term
BALTIMORE - A prominent public health school has restored the word "abortion" as an acceptable search term on a reproductive health Web site funded by a federal agency that restricts references to abortions.The move by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health follows criticism from some health advocates and librarians that the restriction amounted to censorship.
The restriction on the POPLINE Web site — "population information online" — had been put in place after inquiries by the United States Agency for International Development, which funds the site, according to a statement from Dr. Michael J. Klag, the dean of the Bloomberg school.
Government failing to fund UK's nuclear clean-up, say MPs
The Government is failing to provide adequate funding for the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA), the body responsible for cleaning up Britain’s nuclear waste, a report published today by the House of Commons Business and Enterprise Committee says.
Volt plug-in hybrid is 'No. 1 priority,' GM says
DETROIT - General Motors Corp showed off its progress in developing the highly anticipated Chevrolet Volt and detailed its road map for bringing the rechargeable car to the market by 2010, an ambitious timeline challenged by some rivals."We are moving with incredible speed," Frank Weber, GM's vehicle line executive in charge of the Volt, told reporters. "This project is not concept work. This program is not theory. It is reality."
New Flyer: A Clean Way to Play Extreme Peak Oil Scenarios
When the supply of oil cannot grow to meet increasing demand, the price must increase to keep demand in check. However, the fastest growing consumers of oil are countries where the government subsidizes oil as an attempt to avoid civil unrest or political discontent. That means that demand destruction in developed markets must make up the difference for markets where demand destruction will not occur due to the lack of price signals.
UK: Paper-bag trade protest at Government's supermarket curbs
Britain’s paper-bag industry is protesting against government plans to extend its proposed action against single-use carrier bags to include those made of paper, as well as plastic.
Climate change increases cataract blindness risk: experts
SYDNEY (AFP) - Climate change will increase the risk of people losing their sight through cataracts because of higher levels of ultraviolet rays, an expert said Monday.
Asia will bear brunt of climate change-linked deaths: WHO
MANILA (AFP) - More than half the annual estimated 150,000 deaths linked to climate change will come from the Asia-Pacific region, officials at the World Health Organisation said Monday.Most of the fatalities will be the result of a greater incidence of diseases such as malaria, diarrhoea and malnutrition, as well as and flooding due to changing weather patterns.
Shigeru Omi, WHO director for the Western Pacific region based in Manila, said "the impact of climate change will be felt more in developing countries," which have fewer resources to deal with it.
Earth in crisis, warns NASA's top climate scientist
WILMINGTON, Delaware (AFP) - Global warming has plunged the planet into a crisis and the fossil fuel industries are trying to hide the extent of the problem from the public, NASA's top climate scientist says."We've already reached the dangerous level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," James Hansen, 67, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, told AFP here.



http://www.house.gov/smbiz/democrats/PressReleases/2008/pr-04-03-08-cred...
Today, witnesses told the House Committee on Small Business that as traditional sources of capital diminish—including SBA loans—their credit card use is on the rise.
Re the timesonline article Iran joined militias in battle for Basra.
They "believe" Iranians were operating at a tactical command level with the Shi’ite militias fighting Iraqi security forces; some were directing operations on the ground, they "think".
HOW ABOUT PROOF!!!?
Appearantly Iran is being set up. Are we supposed to fall for this BS? AGAIN?!?!
Scott Ritter
http://www.rutlandherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080404/NEWS04/...
Paul Craig Roberts
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article19684.htm
So don't believe the LIARS.
The Bush administration is desperate to distract the masses from the economic disaster unfolding so Maliki is forced into confrontation with al Sadr. The Iranians know what time it is so they're there, pulling the combatants apart, and now General Betrayus will live up to his nickname, again trying to force another neocon fantasy war on us.
This makes me want to call Congressmen ... again ... and inquire about impeachment.
I'm pretty pessimistic when it comes to Iran. Always was. Now, PO is bad enough as it is, without unleashing WWIII. If this next war is on, I can see no other outcome than the one our Chimp envisions, i.e. the nukes come out.
The scary thing is that it will not only distract from the coming depression, which can be blamed on a new war, it will be explained as a reason for high energy costs. "We are in trouble; it's all someone elses fault!" While the mess in Irag and the consequent meddling of Iran in Iraq was created by neocon LIES in the first place.
If they attack Iran it bowls over global oil production in such a fashion as to cover their tracks an it permits for the neocon putsch to be firmed ahead of the installation of a Democratic Congress next January, one which will promptly hand them over to The Hague for war crimes trials in order to restore some of our national honor.
And people here are so blinded by the Meat Stick Media they'll lap it up. Tell me again why I get out of bed and try to do something about this every day?
"one which will promptly hand them over to The Hague for war crimes trials "
Love your sense of humor, SCT!
If 'the oil exporting countries' were to say 'Turn 'em over or no more oil' - the speed at which a handover would happen would challenge light as being one of the fastest things in the universe.
That wasn't snark, it was a heartfelt hope. We're a pariah nation that no one is willing to step up to ... yet. Maybe we're the first and biggest cat to inhabit the Monbiot Feline Combat Containment System?
And I'm not snark'n either. People are handed over to 'international justice' is at ends of wars or an attempt quiet the others who set up the court. I can not think of a government that is still a continuance of the old government who hands over high placed members for a trial. A total lack of imported oil *MIGHT* be enough - my faith in my fellow man to toss others under the bus for their own benefit is the only way I see your hope happening.
If one wants to have heartfelt hope (or perhaps chaos) - imagine a 'national reconsilation commission' like South Africa for whatever your pet issue is. Banking, corruption - whatever. Fill out your from by April 16th, confess your crime and name your co-conspirators. Publish 'em to the Internet - as the light of the public would be a great disinfectant. If your co-conspirators opted to NOT fill out the forms, they are subject to whatever the punishment might be.
Think of the make work program for government paper pushers!
SCT, thanks. More people should hope, but first and foremost act to bring about change. Do call your congressman(calls from my side of the Atlantic will not work).
Some US general said "war is a racket", I think. A war with Iran would be the best way to funnel perhaps the last major revenues likely to be collected by the IRS into the pockets of Cheney's supporters (military suppliers etc.) WHILE providing the rationale for controlling dissenters AND the resulting gas shortages will also keep everyone focused on basic suvival, not paying attention to WHO is escaping on planes bound for, for example, Paraguay.....
You see, they've thought it all out, the neocons. And it matters not a whit whether anyone has guessed their plans, because they are in control.
But, you know, war lords flourish when it's a zero sum game. If available energy is increasing, then fine, leaders are happy to share the good fortune bountifully among the populace. But if the energy available is going to stagnate or decrease then the window SLAMS shut and people who are a bit stronger, richer and more powerful make sure that they remain that way, even if it takes lies, robbing, whatever.
There were war lords here in Japan until 1863 when the Meiji Revolution did away with them. I believe that the energy profile of Japan (as well as the world) changed at that time and it was no longer a zero sum game, suddenly there was coal, oil, etc. ("Oh, OKAY, great! Let's SHARE!")
But in the US way before Bush was--ahem---"elected" in 2000, the reversion to the zero sum game energy profile was clear, just even by the slowing marginal rate of oil production. Bush is a war lord, masquerading as a democratic leader. He is a war lord in every sense. He is being run by others who are profiting from his policies. He doesn't hate war, regret war, or even dislike it. (Maybe in his heart of hearts he might feel sorry for the people killed, but he is weak enough to separate these feelings from his policies).
He is a war lord. There might be more such "leaders" on the horizon, as time passes, only the scale will be smaller and smaller. Fighting between continents, then within continents, then within countries, then just between two groups on different sides of a hill......
"war is a racket"
http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm
By US Marine Corp Major General Smedley Butler
The other bit of history that is not mentioned often
http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Coup.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot
(This tid-bit is RIPE for a prankster to fake a copy and call it authentic. I'm surprised it hasn't happened.)
There were war lords here in Japan until 1863 when the Meiji Revolution did away with them. I believe that the energy profile of Japan (as well as the world) changed at that time and it was no longer a zero sum game, suddenly there was coal, oil, etc. ("Oh, OKAY, great! Let's SHARE!")
Please post more on the history of Japan as viewed through the energy lens.
not paying attention to WHO is escaping on planes bound for, for example, Paraguay.....
Humans are nasty vengeful kritters. I would not be shocked to hear that the jungle of Paraguay was nuked due to trees being a source of wood for the next set of weapons - sticks.
"There were war lords here in Japan until 1863 when the Meiji Revolution did away with them."
Source please? Are you referring to the samurai class? That is what Meiji brought to an end. But they were a landed aristocracy, not war lords.
Aren't all landed aristocracies warlords - grabbing land by arms, then passing it on to their children with the military skills to pose as a protection racket for the tenants? When those skills are lost, the decayed descendants must either lose their land to reform movements (Europe/Japan), or hire death squads from the army/police/School of the Americas franchise, thus becoming warlords once again.
It is no coincidence that the affluent families of the US sent so many of their boys to military academies.
If you like. But it seems to me that it so trivializes the distinctions that you would end up with only two forms of governance - democracy or warlord-ism. That lacks in subtlety from my perspective.
I'd be perfectly amenable to just calling it "thievery", because that's what it is, regardless of who does it.
Land---exactly----that was the source of energy. Whether it's horses eating the grass or people eating the crops, the energy from the land was the only energy. Control the land and you control the energy--the food, horses (military). The amount of land wasn't increasing (hence the limitation on energy available). People fought constantly to control the land here. (Of course, without modern WMD and tanks, bombs, missiles, whatever, I guess the fighting was pretty much different from what is going on now in wars.) But the Meiji govt realized, after contact with outside world (esp. England I believe) , that coal-powered ships, trains etc could put an end to this feudalistic world view, and its lifestyle. And things did change.
Bush is more a symptom of peak oil----in a world of increasing scarcity, some groups will want to grab what they can get simply because they believe (perhaps correctly????? I hate to think of it like that!) that otherwie someone else will beat them to it.
Sorry I have no links in particular to recommend! Just look up various general historical terms and I think you'll find something.
And didn't the next 80+ years in Japan bring forth the most barbaric lethal culture the world has ever seen [exceeding the nazis, mongols, ruskies, chinese, US, British etc..]? What would that bio-weapons factory in Hiroshima be doing had it not been toasted in 45??
What would that bio-weapons factory in Hiroshima be doing had it not been toasted in 45??
Train US citizens in the facility?
12 aircraft carriers @ $4.5 billion ea + 12 sunburn missles @ $1 million ea = sum 0
Even the nut case Neocon's have to understand that a move against Iran will take Persian Gulf oil off line and kick the global ecomony into the dumpster... make that a giant trash compactor.
Likewise I would guess that during DC's recent talks with the Saudis, such subjects were maybe considered? If so, what would the Saudis positions be? I really can't see them giving a "thumbs up" to a nuke holocaust, even if they do hate those creepy Persian Shiites. The Saudis could derail such plans with promises of dialing back exports as a threat.
Besides, there's oil in Greenland. We should preemtively strke al Qaide in Greenland, grab the oil, and pack up our tents in the middle east.
Even the nut case Neocon's have to understand that a move against Iran will take Persian Gulf oil off line and kick the global ecomony into the dumpster
Wack-job conspiracy radio yakkers who claim to be 'plugged into' the 'global elite' have commented more than once that part of the 'global elite' (I'm sure they ain't the ppl I hang with) have pushback over the Iran attack plans because they worry over their comfortable little empires.
The true nut case versions have hard-core-religious beliefs at their core - so no amount of pointing at economy or oil will change their mind because they are siding with God(s). And really, if ya gotta pick a side the God(s) of various mythos create things like worlds or cosmoses or humans from dust/dirt, et la. Oil/money really's got nothing on an actual God (as portrayed in writing).
Now - Wasn't Iran supposed to have been attacked already? (or Houston nuked in 2005. Or .....)
"Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on Monday he is concerned that average U.S. gasoline pump prices could hit $3.50 a gallon this summer, and said he is "optimistic" that OPEC will come to the rescue of U.S. drivers."
Yeah, and I'm optimistic Nicole Kidman is going to dump that guy she married and go out with me instead...
SubKommander Dred
Apologies if this has already been posted here, I don't remember seeing it:
Insight: Opec’s power shortages fuel oil prices
Is basically a description of Westtexas' export land model
Note the linked article about Russia. In any case, this was my (January, 2006) original post on the concept, building on prior work by several people:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832
Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters
I later slightly modified the ELM, and I underestimated the contribution from frontier basins in Russia, but I suspect that frontier basins in Russia are to Russia as Alaska is to the US--they both help, but IMO they are no panacea.
This article was also the start of the Khebab/Brown collaborations. Based on Khebab's HL work on Russia--cutting off the data set in the mid-Eighties--in the comment section I noted that Russia could show increasing production for another year or two before declining.
Everyone has to make their own decisions, but in my opinion it is way past time to consider some variation of the ELP concept (and numerous people have independently outlined their own versions of the same basic idea).
Spot on, Westexas. Every tree you bark up has a coon. What’s your next signal?
Cold Camel
Like Matt Simmons and others, I would have preferred to have wrong. BTW, not that I am comparing myself to Matt; I am just a bit player in this drama. At ASPO-USA, I told Matt that we were building our export work on his prior work, and he said, "Thanks, but I would have preferred to be wrong."
Interesting October, 2007 article on Financial Sense on the prospect for $1,000 oil within 10 years: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/lalani/2007/1028.html
Westexas,
We all wish you were wrong, but wishes don’t change reality. Now you have a history of predictions. As each domino falls, you are more able to see the next one. I find it quite useful to compare what you see in your crystal ball to what I see. What’s next?
I see the langoliers (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112040/) eating the world poor. Impacts on the rich will be delayed. We will have the opportunity to watch and learn from the third world. World trade will dissolve as rich countries refuse to subsidize the poor.
The same will happen domestically as government, energy and agriculture subsume increasing shares of the national wealth. Those with marginal incomes in all economic sectors will suffer first. But none of us are standing above the high tide line. No sangfroid here.
Cold Camel
"World trade will dissolve as rich countries refuse to subsidize the poor."
Actually, it's the other way round as poor countries' resources subsidized/created the rich countries. It sould be observed that formerly opulent countries, Egypt for example, are now quite poor. Two currently rich countries, UK and Japan, will perish without trade. A few places can convert to autarky, the continental sized countries primarilly, but only after substantial changes are wrought. As a historian, I will be the first to admit the future is unpredictible in its specifics and add that the best way to know the future is to study the past. I will say that those who prosper during and after the coming Great Decline will build the basis for the new low-energy paradigm, not try to maintain BAU.
Karlof,
Your argument is correct regarding current world trade in dollars. I had not resolved whether I meant rich financially or in resources, but after considering your input, I clearly consider resources to be the measure if importance. Japan is resource poor and will be hurt by a lack of trade more than their trading partners of the future. I would modify my statement to:
“World trade will dissolve as resource rich countries refuse to subsidize resource poor countries.”
Thank you for the input. I think we are both in agreement.
Cheers.
Cold Camel
Here's what worries me about the public reaction to declines:
Russia declines before Saudi - our leaders tell us that our oil lackeys have outlasted the bad guys - let's party!
Saudi declines before Russia - our leaders tell us that our way of life is threatened - Cold War II!
Our only chance is that Russia and Saudi decline at exactly the same time, with no perturbations, leaving us with no illusions. But the Saudis are willing to move, store or misquote production to keep creating occasional production spikes to feed the propaganda mill.
True, OPEC's power shortages fuel oil prices (increases)...but the story is much more complex than that...and it reinforces WTs reasoning that ELM, once started, quickly gains momentum. Some big players in oil exports are using their $s in ever increasing amounts to fund social programs a