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DrumBeat: April 9, 2008
Posted by Leanan on April 9, 2008 - 9:06am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Raymond J. Learsy: As Oil Touches All Time Highs, Our Deparment of Energy Takes Us For Fools
Our oil whiz, Secretary Bodman of the Department of Energy, perhaps a distant cousin of "Great Job Brownie" of Katrina fame, wrote a letter to the New York Times 3.30.08 rebutting points in an editorial "Pain at the Pump and Beyond" 3.25.08, proceeding I would imagine on the assumption that everyone is as much out of the loop on oil issues as he is.
Venezuela seeks new operator for Chalmette refinery
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela is seeking to remove Exxon Mobil as the operator of its joint-venture refinery in Chalmette, Louisiana, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Wednesday .The move escalates the OPEC nation's battle with the biggest publicly traded oil company sparked by Venezuela's takeover of a multibillion-dollar oil project last year.
Enterprise Shuts Gas Line for Up to 4 Weeks on Leak
(Bloomberg) -- Enterprise Product Partners LP, the second-largest U.S. pipeline partnership by market value, shut its Independence Hub natural gas platform and a related pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico for repairs that may take four weeks.
Predicting the End of the Commodity Bubble
Is history about to repeat itself? And could Russia be an unintended victim of a commodity price bubble that will soon burst?
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Accelerating Rapidly
Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the burning of fossil fuels stood at a record 8.38 gigatons of carbon (GtC) in 2006, 20 percent above the level in 2000. Emissions grew 3.1 percent a year between 2000 and 2006, more than twice the rate of growth during the 1990s. Carbon dioxide emissions have been growing steadily for 200 years, since fossil fuel burning began on a large scale at the start of the Industrial Revolution. But the growth in emissions is now accelerating despite unambiguous evidence that carbon dioxide is warming the planet and disrupting ecosystems around the globe.
North Dakota - the next Saudi Arabia
No question: Rising oil prices and technological progress will make it cost-effective to extract some of Bakken's shale oil and get it to market. But will that flow fundamentally challenge the peak oil thesis? From this corner, the hope seems like a stretch. The world is running low on cheap, easy-to-recover oil, of that there is no doubt. The possibility that the supply of expensive, hard-to-recover oil will keep pace with growing global demand appears dim.
Forecaster raises Atlantic hurricane number
MIAMI (Reuters) - The noted Colorado State University hurricane research team on Wednesday raised the number of tropical storms and hurricanes it expects to form in the upcoming Atlantic storm season.The team founded by forecasting pioneer Bill Gray increased its outlook by two tropical storms to 15, and by one hurricane to eight, compared with a long-term average of around 10 and six, respectively, for a storm season.
"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said Gray in a statement.
British Energy monopoly ‘unacceptable’
The Government fired a warning shot to potential bidders for British Energy yesterday by saying it will not tolerate the emergence of a single monopoly player in Britain’s drive to build a new generation of nuclear reactors.
Pride CEO says Mexico energy debate paralyzes Pemex
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - The chief executive of U.S. offshore drilling contractor Pride International Inc said on Wednesday uncertainty over investment rules for Mexico's energy industry has paralyzed state oil company Pemex and is making it challenging to do business there.
Calderon's bid for oil liberalization gets ho-hum reaction
MEXICO CITY — Analysts said today that President Felipe Calderon's energy reform bill is a good a start, but falls short of making the sweeping changes necessary to set Mexico's ailing state oil company back on track.
Cap-and-trade push grows in U.S.
WASHINGTON — Momentum is building in the United States for adoption of a national cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it won't come without a titanic fight.
'Splash and dash' hits UK biofuels firm
The enormous damage being done by "splash and dash" imports of American biodiesel were highlighted today when one of the UK's leading operators, D1 Oils, said it was closing down all its refining operations in Britain after running up a £46m loss annual loss....Elliott Mannis, the D1 chief executive, said it was "extremely frustrating" that the company had been forced to bow out of refining because nothing had been done to stop the deluge of B99 biodiesel from the US. "It's an unbelievable situation and there is no end in sight," he added.
ATLANTA, Georgia (AP) -- The car rental business is slowly undergoing a green evolution, packing its fleets with more hybrids and fuel efficient vehicles.But so far, it's been a cautious transition, since there's no telling whether consumer demand will meet the supply.
Saudi Aramco Expects Khursaniyah On-Stream This Month
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia will start adding 500,000 barrels a day of oil to its total capacity when the Khursaniyah field comes on stream this month, an official at state-run oil company Saudi Aramco said.The "Khursaniyah field is coming on this month and within a month will be at 300,000 barrels a day," Abdulaziz al-Judaimi, vice president of new business development at Saudi Aramco, said today at the World National Oil Companies conference in London. Development work at the Khursaniyah field, on the east coast, will eventually add 500,000 barrels a day to the country's production capacity.
Aramco will add a further 250,000 barrels a day by the end of the year when its 500,000 barrel-a-day Shaybah oil field expansion, in the desert known as Rub al Khali, or Empty Quarter, is complete. "Shaybah will come on in December," al-Judaimi said.
KunstlerCast #8: The Glossary of Nowhere
When James Howard Kunstler wrote The Geography of Nowhere, it was to give people "the vocabulary to understand what's wrong with the places they ought to know best." In this installment we run down a few choice Kunstlerisms, like "parking lagoons", "nature Band-Aids" and "patriotic totems." Kunstler also tells us why the depressing topic of suburban sprawl is also really funny.
Brace yourself for electric shocks
In the Californian energy crisis of 2000-01, traders at Enron used strategies nicknamed Death Star and Fat Boy to manipulate the state’s crumbling electricity infrastructure for profit.To this roll call of scams, is it now time to add another – the Highland Fling? The allegation is that power stations in Scotland were shut down to create artificial constraints on supply, only to be reopened, providing an opportunity for a windfall profit.
Sorry Out of GasIn this two-part series, Nancy Tousley looks at how architecture met the demand of fuel shortages in the '70s.
Generator sales soar as South Africa fights off energy crisis
SOUTH Africans are rushing to buy generators as the country‘s power cuts become more frequent – and some suppliers are even running out of stock.
Gaza's agriculture on the verge of collapse
Deputy-minister of agriculture, Ibrahim Al-Qedra, said in a statement faxed to the press that the fishing industry alone needs 20,000 liters of gasoline and 6,000 liters of Benzene, noting that the fishing season is focused on April and MayAl-Qedra stated that the lack of fuel has led to a complete stoppage of all agricultural equipment and that machines at local canning factories have already stopped working due to lack of fuel.
'Energy poverty and income poverty are linked'
Econometric modelling is required to examine the food-fuel relationship to find out how much land use patterns are changing. How much of the price rise is due to dearer oil? There is a close link between energy poverty and income poverty.
Nigeria: The Return of Fuel Queues
Fuel queues are sad and embarrassing reminders of Nigeria's senseless dependence on imported refined petroleum products. As usual, the federal government has responded by passing the buck. The NNPC blames the development on panic-buying by consumers following threats by oil workers to go on strike. The Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), the regulator of the downstream sector of the oil industry, said it had intercepted shiploads of fuel with high ethanol content, and that news of the interception led to speculation of shortage that triggered panic-buying and consequently the long queues.
Pakistan: Loadshedding swells to 7 hrs
LAHORE - The seven out of eight electric power distribution companies of PEPCO has resorted to seven-hour loadshedding on Tuesday following the implementation of decision of giving 300mw additional electricity to the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) coupled with the overall electricity shortfall touching the 2800 MW mark.
Pakistan: Power crisis puts authorities in an unenviable position
The new government has to adopt all possible measures to improve the supply and curtail the demand for electricity. Forcing commercial markets to conserve electricity should be has an important element in the overall power management strategy.
Bangladesh: Price hike reaches intolerable level
Chief of Army Staff General Moeen U Ahmed yesterday said, the prices of essentials have shot up to such a high level that it has been very difficult for the people to tolerate.The tendencies of some consumers who purchase huge amount of commodities create panic in the market and rise prices of essentials, he said adding that trends of stockholding commodities by importers, wholesalers and retailers are also pushing up prices.
Calderon Says Mexico Must Act Now to Stop Decline in Oil Output
(Bloomberg) -- President Felipe Calderon said Mexico must move urgently to reverse declines in oil output and reserves and proposed allowing foreign and private companies to refine, produce and transport crude.``We have to act now because we're running out of time and out of oil,'' Calderon said yesterday during a 13-minute, nationally televised speech from Mexico City. He spoke after his party presented an energy reform proposal to the Senate.
Mexico Pemex to issue 5 bln pesos of citizens' debt
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's oil state giant Pemex would initially issue around 5 billion pesos of citizens' bonds under a government reform plan, Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said Wednesday.
Gulf Finance House Plans $10 Billion Energy Hub in Kazakhstan
(Bloomberg) -- Gulf Finance House E.C., Bahrain's largest investment bank by market value, plans to build a $10 billion business park for energy companies in Kazakhstan, holder of 3.3 percent of the world's oil.
Thick ice halts production at White Rose oil field again
For the second time within a week, heavy ice has prompted Husky Energy to suspend production at an oilfield off the coast of Newfoundland.
Petrobras: $535 Million In Ecuador Investments On Hold
Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, has put on hold some $535 million in planned investments in operating fields in Ecuador, waiting for a definitive solution to a contract dispute with the government, high-level Petrobras officials said Tuesday.Petrobras is accused of breaking legal regulations by transferring exploration rights to Japan's Teikoku Oil Co., a unit of Impex Holdings Inc., in 2005.
Kazmunaigas EP: Oil Duty Could Cost $800M A Year
London-listed Kazakh oil and gas producer KazMunaiGas Exploration Production Tuesday said the financial impact of a new export duty on crude oil could be about $800 million...."Should the new export duty of $109.91 per ton be applied to the entire export volumes of Uzenmunaigas and Embamunaigas, the estimated annualized financial impact, before income taxes, would be approximately $800 million," the company said in a statement. "In light of an increase in the tax burden, KMG EP will be undertaking a review of its production, financial and investment plans."
Official urges China's power plants to invest in coal sector
BEIJING, April 9 (Xinhua) -- China's electricity regulator has advised major power companies to merge with or acquire coal producers and transporters to help stabilize costs and supplies.Utilities could slow the expansion of their thermal-power capacity and instead invest in coal transport firms and mines, Zou Yiqiao, director of the price and financial supervision department of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC), was quoted as saying by Shanghai Securities News on Wednesday.
Oil, Iraq and U.S. Foreign Policy: A Way Forward
So, the results of our disastrous "oil policy" is that Exxon and Conoco Philips have been kicked out of Venezuela and are in arbitration. That can't be good for American oil interests. Russia has found ways to reduce British Petroleum's reserves in the region, and that can't be good for American interests (remember, BP is a major player in the U.S. after their takeovers of U.S. companies Amoco and Atlantic Richfield). Also, has anyone noticed recently how foreign oil majors like StatOil, Total and Eni SPA have been getting more and more business from Russia, Venezuela, and other oil rich regions at the expense of the American oil majors? This is proof that Bush's policies have been a total failure in the one area where he and his buddy Dick Cheney were supposed to be experts: OIL.
Masdar City: Not a showcase, but an ‘Entrepreneurial Eco-system’
But here’s a problem that all smart policy-makers in the oil producing countries are faced with: not only are their oil reserves expected to eventually run out (EIA estimates peak oil to be reached in year 2037), but they face also a mounting awareness around the world of the negative impact of continued dependence on fossil fuel.
Will the future look like the Jetsons or Ingalls?
Erickson, a retired IBM engineer, uses various calculations and models to predict that we are on the downward side of the peak oil boom. If he's right, Saudi Arabians will go back to riding camels and our society may look more like the Amish community than the jet-setting, cosmopolitan culture that seems to be a given as we look ahead."Our future is not going to be a bigger and better replication of our past," Erickson explains.
The Big Picture: Resource Collapse
We (the human we) have pushed the limits of many of the resources our civilization has come to depend upon. Oil is the most talked-about example, but from topsoil to fisheries, water to wheat, many of the resources underpinning life and society as we know it face significant threat. In many cases, this threat comes from simple over-consumption; in others, it comes from ecosystem damage (often, but not always, made worse by over-consumption).
High gas prices, the war in Iraq, the tremulous stock market: Complain all you want, but these troubling times are doing their part to fuel post-apocalyptic literature. Unlike the bleakness of style and subject in Cormac McCarthy's The Road, James Howard Kunstler's World Made by Hand is an end-of-days novel that is more a pleasure than a burden to read; it frightens without becoming ridiculously nightmarish, it cautions without being too judgmental, and it offers glimmers of hope we don't have to read between the lines to comprehend.
10 more years of research to make solar energy competitive - peak oil
Efficiency issues still make solar power a tough investment sell against fossil fuels. Research is driving to use solar energy to directly produce hydrogen from water for use as a transportation fuel.Despite oil prices that hover around $100 a barrel, it may take at least 10 or more years of intensive research and development to reduce the cost of solar energy to levels competitive with petroleum, in the eyes of one expert.
Turning up the Heat on Coal Investing
Opponents of coal use are turning up the heat. This week, protests turned violent against a coal-fired plant being built in North Carolina by a unit of DUKE ENERGY.Eight demonstrators from a group called “Rising Tide” were arrested after chaining themselves to construction equipment at the Cliffside facility. Others were stunned with Tasers and charged with trespassing, as police cleared the facility so work could resume.
The real reason why oil is so expensive
OPEC pumped an average 32.35m barrels a day in March, down 85,000 barrels from February. Production by the 12 members with quotas (all except Iraq) fell 30,000 barrels to 29.97m barrels a day. This is the first time output has fallen in seven months.
Oasis budget airline stops flying
Hundreds of passengers have been left stranded after the Hong Kong airline Oasis stopped flying and applied to go into liquidation....Soaring fuel bills have forced other airlines out of business recently, including the Hawaiian airline Aloha and the business class airline Maxjet.
Oil Services Exec Cites Weak Investment
NEW ORLEANS - Efforts to boost the supply of oil in the face of expanding world demand are being hampered by insufficient investment, despite surging crude prices, the head of a major petroleum services company said Monday.
Mexico submits oil reform proposal
MEXICO CITY - Mexico's president on Tuesday sent an energy reform bill to the Senate aimed at allowing private contractors a greater role in helping the ailing state oil company boost declining production and build new refineries.Felipe Calderon stressed that the bill would not privatize Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, a volatile issue that has led the leftist opposition to threaten massive protests if the conservative government tries to sell off a company seen as a symbol of national sovereignty.
Venezuela to Boost Oil, Gas, Refining, Build Own Rigs
(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela plans to boost its oil and gas production, refining and reserves and ship more oil to China, an executive at state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA said.Venezuela will pump 3.5 million barrels a day of oil this year and 6.8 million barrels a day in 2021, Luis Vierma, PDVSA's vice president of exploration and production, said at the World National Oil Companies conference in London today. PDVSA wants to build its own drilling rigs and build a fleet of tankers to ship its oil to China, where it already sends about 300,000 barrels a day.
``There are no rigs available around the world,'' Vierma said. ``For that reason we are going to build our own rigs.'' A tanker fleet will help the nation ``capture markets in Asia,'' he said.
Venezuela, India sign joint venture in oil-gas-rich Orinoco
CARACAS (AFP) - Venezuela and India on Tuesday signed a five-year, 400-million-dollar joint venture to drill for oil and gas in Venezuela's oil-rich southeastern Orinoco region, Oil and Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said.
BP Ceyhan Pipeline's Daily Oil Exports to Increase 16.6% in May
(Bloomberg) -- Daily Azeri crude oil shipments through a BP Plc-operated Caspian Sea pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan will rise about 16.6 percent next month, loading schedules show.
BP Could Lose $20 Billion to Gazprom
The Russian government in general, and Gazprom in particular, has a history of forcing foreign oil and gas companies out of local fields through corporate and legal harassment and tax hikes. The government hasn't gone so far as to say, "leave Russia to the Russians," publicly, but you can imagine the sentiment being passed between cabinet ministers and police chiefs as they rifle through TNK-BP's Moscow offices (which they did a couple of weeks ago).
Alaska now has 2 gas pipeline proposals
JUNEAU, Alaska - For decades, Alaska has unsuccessfully pursued a pipeline project that would ship natural gas to U.S. markets to power homes and business. After years of failure and frustration, suddenly there are a pair of viable proposals on the drawing board.
Chile Power Shortage May Disrupt Mines, Spur Copper to Record
(Bloomberg) -- An energy shortage in Chile may do for copper what cuts in electricity supplies did for platinum in South Africa -- spark a record-setting rally in prices.
OPEC Countries Pumping Less Crude On Maintenance: Survey
LONDON -- OPEC member countries pumped 110,000 barrels of crude oil a day less in March than they did in February, according to a survey released by Platts. Platts said much of the decline is related more to maintenance work in Nigeria and Venezuela than any shift in philosophy.
Dems push for forcing Iraq to spend its oil surplus
WASHINGTON — Democrats plan to push legislation this spring that would force the Iraqi government to spend its own surplus in oil revenues to rebuild the country, sparing U.S. dollars.
Our fool's paradise to crumble as calamities set to collide
Our life in fool's paradise is ending. Just as all humans eventually must face demise, so too the world's good times are going. Add a pinch of pollution, a few drops of peak oil, the quickening of climate change, an aging population, and we experience the bursting of the capitalistic bubble, fueled by debt, which has allowed everybody to live beyond their means: corporations, states, families, depleting non-renewable resources in the process.
China Nuclear Seeks Canadian Acquisition for Uranium Reserves
(Bloomberg) -- China National Nuclear Corp., the nation's largest nuclear power plant builder, said it is looking for Canadian acquisitions or partners to help boost uranium reserves and its plans to sell reactors in North America.The state-owned company is considering options including takeovers and supply agreements that range in value from ``several hundred million dollars to more than a billion,'' Cui Jianchun, general manager of subsidiary CNNC Finance Co., said in an interview in Toronto.
Low-carbon living takes off in the US
Cohousing offers a low-carbon lifestyle, and developers are poised for a market that could soon burgeon in the US, according to a new study. Until now, cohousing has occupied a niche market in the US, but the paper by Dr Jo Williams at UCL (University College London) suggests the situation is changing. Cohousing not only helps to halve energy use, it offers health and social benefits for families and older people seeking secure and affordable homes.
Food price rises threaten global security - UN
Rising food prices could spark worldwide unrest and threaten political stability, the UN's top humanitarian official warned yesterday after two days of rioting in Egypt over the doubling of prices of basic foods in a year and protests in other parts of the world.Sir John Holmes, undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs and the UN's emergency relief coordinator, told a conference in Dubai that escalating prices would trigger protests and riots in vulnerable nations. He said food scarcity and soaring fuel prices would compound the damaging effects of global warming. Prices have risen 40% on average globally since last summer.
Spain's worst drought for a generation leaves water and comradeship in short supply
Spain is suffering its worst drought in more than four decades, pitting the country's regions against each other in a fierce battle over water resources.
Airbus boss says aviation unfairly targeted over climate change
AUCKLAND (AFP) - The aviation industry is being unfairly targeted over climate change and future reductions in aircraft emissions should be based on technological innovation rather than regulation, Airbus chief Tom Enders said Wednesday."We think it's a little bit unfair that the aviation sector is singled out for attack by many environmental groups, maybe because we are more visible than other groups," Enders told a media briefing in Auckland.
White House hopefuls woo Gore, focus on climate
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic White House hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama speak often about green jobs, emissions cuts and renewable energy. But they have more than global warming on their minds when they talk of environmental policy.The long-term goal may be saving the planet, but the short-term one is winning the backing of former Vice President Al Gore.
Take the Cold Train
http://www.forbes.com/2006/11/02/cold-train-railex-produce-biz-logistics...
Diesel run refrigerated unit train. Electrified trains would be significantly better, and I hope more common.
The only other refrigerated train that I am aware of in the USA are two unit trains run by Tropicana from Florida to the Northeast. Does anyone know of any other ?
Food requiring refrigeration is otherwise run by trucks (with separate diesel refrigeration units).
Live cattle (farms to feedlots) are another "truck only" food transport.
Best Hopes for Food by Train,
Alan
What happened to the "Pacific Fruit Express?" the joint venture between the former SP and their current owner UP. You still see the cars, some with the chutes for the ice. My impression was it collected fresh produce up and down the Central Valley and delivered it posthaste to points east. Made obsolete by subsidized interstate trucking?
UP is still in the refrigerated freight business. In fact, they've been expanding their fleet fairly rapidly. They currently have 3500 50' refrigerated boxcars and 1500 64' cars (all 1500 64' cars have been purchased in the last 5 years). They also carry more than a small amount of refrigerated cargo in containers on their intermodal trains.
"Pacific Fruit Express?"
sounds like the plot of "east of eden"
http://www.portwallawalla.com/info/news/110206.pdf
snip:
"The first train loaded with seasonal produce left the new Railex facility in Wallula last month, carrying the equivalent of 200
truckloads of onions, potatoes and apples bound for the East Coast.
Though some might balk at the cost of the nearly $58 million invested in the Railex project, which was subsidized in part by
state, local and federal dollars, it is a boon for the state of Washington.
A 55-car train will leave here each week, taking the freshest crops of each season to Rotterdam, N.Y., where Railex has
constructed its second facility including a repackaging line....."
I recollect they may have added a second unit train every week.
While I'm generally sympathetic with your EOT efforts, Alan, might I just question whether we really need to be transporting this perishable produce cross country at all, or at least to the extent that we do? Many of us believe that the most energy efficient produce is that grown in one's own local community, preferably in one's own back yard.
A very good point.
Local production of fruits and vegetables in California and Florida exceeds the capacity of local markets to absorb. OTOH, the Northeast cannot feed itself and has many months of no or greenhouse only production.
Current dietary guidelines suggest five servings of different fruits and vegetables/day. Hard to do in NYC in February from local production.
Substituting non-oil transportation (hopefully largely run by renewable power in the medium term future)for oil based transportation seems to be the easier path than changing American dietary habits, perhaps for the worse.
Alan
Alan, no disrespect but gauging by your posting in nearly every thread it appears to me that your obsession with electrified rail is also a compulsion.
I'm bemused and simply fail to comprehend what you envisage.
Firstly I think we should evaluate volumes and what rail transport is used for now, then extrapolate that data to what we expect in the future.
A reasonable assumption as to where we are heading, is to look at how rail transport was utilised at about the turn of last century.
Thinking that we will have BAU to utilize and pay for the modified and expanded infrastructure is just magical thinking.
If we have BAU then we will have more commuters, commuting to their jobs which will transport their goods by rail.
Now of course if the economy contracts or a recession/depression ........................much less commuting, no money to pay for commuting.
Less jobs, less money to pay for goods transported by rail, as in fuel, new cars and trucks, grain, ores, various refined food, beer, wine, milk, livestock, steel, aluminum, fruit and consumer goods.
Who do you expect to pay for the conversions and expansion? I doubt the private sector will, not unless they forecast a mid to long term profitable return.
Just because France has a vision of electrified everything does not make them right. I find it hard to believe they see and understand the big picture. If they see themselves as an island of self sustainability they are in for quite a rude shock. I simply ask, what will they need a high speed commuter train service for?
Summing up my opinion.
I suspect that the transport problem will sort itself out. It's low priority. There will be time to adjust and business will adjust or it won't. Being proactive on a large and costly scale would take quite a fair bit of faith and conviction. Maintaining the ability to react, IMO is the better option.
Now of course if you see society breaking down due to a lack of transport, business shutting down because people can't get to work.
People starving because ICE trains can't transport bulk grain or livestock or packaged food. Riots because new cars are not being delivered, or beer and wines being in short supply, then I understand your obsession.
Thinking that we will have BAU to utilize and pay for the modified and expanded infrastructure is just magical thinking.
And the alternatives are?
No. Really. What are the alternatives?
Either the government will do it directly (nationalization) or indirectly via tax breaks, or changes in regulation to attract capital.
Who do you expect to pay for the conversions and expansion? I doubt the private sector will, not unless they forecast a mid to long term profitable return.
The private sector. Via shipping costs. And increased taxes. And a spot o land grab via emirate domain.
Besides - if we are generating most of the power via renewables like wind and solar, electrified transport makes for a great dump load. In the case of moving say ore - if the ore takes a bit longer to arrive - its not like the ore is going to spoil.
Bandits.
People Starving. Riots.
These hyperbolic assumptions don't show your own thinking as seeing the big picture here, or really listening to the proposals that Alan has put forth. Did you ever get a chance to read this?
>> http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
"A 10% Reduction in America's Oil Use in Ten to Twelve Years
An Overlooked, Practical, and Affordable Approach Using Mature Existing Technology"
While Alan's hardly proposing we simply maintain today's BAU model, his 10% article at Light Rail Now is focused on proactive steps to fortify our transport sector, not replace it. France, nestled snugly into Western Europe could hardly be accused of seeing itself as an island of self-sufficiency, while she's clearly taking steps to improve sustainable transportation and energy options.
"I suspect that the transport problem will sort itself out. It's low priority."
- Well that's the question, I guess.
Bob
One way of looking at the post-Peak Oil situation (and there are several valid POVs, recall a half dozen blind men examining an elephant) is:
Each nation will be able to afford only so much oil, domestic production plus what their exports can buy.
The default solution to making oil burned = oil available is reduced economic activity (see today ?).
Creating a Non-Oil Transportation system with the ability to expand capacity quickly, rapidly and economically (average costs lower as volume expands) creates an alternative solution to "reduced economic activity". As oil gets tighter, a higher and higher % of transportation shifts from oil based to non-oil transportation.
Non-oil transportation creates a viable alternative to simply doing without, and the economic contraction/destruction that goes with that.
As for inter-city railroads, all that is needed is additional public subsidies (could be largely paid for by reduced subsidies for road repairs caused by heavy trucks). The industry wants a 25% tax credit for capital improvements. Increasing that to 33% would certainly spur major improvements.
BTW, the cost to do what I propose for inter-city RRs would cost somewhere between $250 and $400 billion. Expensive if the bulk of that was spent in the first decade (as I hope it would be), but hardly societies largest expenditure.
Best Hopes for NOT sitting back and waiting some more,
Alan
I do support electrification of existing railroads. Rail mass transit over newly built lines is something I have a problem with because the capital cost is so high. Not to mention the maintenance cost we've seen with light rail here in California.
1) Much cheaper than new highways, or maintaining them.
2) France can afford 1,500 km of new tram lines, for an estimated 22 billion euros (Purchasing Power parity 1 euro = $1.12).
US costs are are multiplied by our "Ration by Queue" system, We just need to learn to be as fast as efficient as French bureaucrats.
Best Hopes for Fast, Cost-Effective Urban Rail,
Alan
"Thinking that we will have BAU to utilize and pay for the modified and expanded infrastructure is just magical thinking."
How is it magical thinking to allocate current resources to increase efficiency and attack a supply and infrastructure problem practically? We have the power in hand to change now. Why shouldn't we? It's not Alan who suffers from magical delusions. It's your voodoo doomsday black magic that is out of touch with reality.
The current trucking system is wasteful, inefficient and places unnecessary strains on current FF supply. If we can shore up, leverage, and expand existing rail infrastructure and reduce consumption by 10% it provides a practical mitigation to the peak oil problem.
We are not necessarily short on resources now. We have severely misallocated billions in Iraq that could be building comprehensive renewable and more efficient energy infrastructure at home.
As the old oil infrastructure attempts to drag us over the cliff of peak oil, we will need new infrastructure to keep civilization in place. Certainly, there is a danger of system-wide infrastructure crash -- but only if we ignore the problem, fail to build mitigating infrastructure, and otherwise fail to respond appropriately.
As for France -- they will likely be in a better position to weather the crisis than we will if we continue to fail to act.
What is most shocking to me is not Alan's focus on trains as part of the solution to peak oil, but the assumption by some on this board that a return to cart and buggy days is inevitable or even desirable. We should fight tooth and nail to preserve and improve the systems we have while shedding ugly fat (Wal-Mart, suburbia, SUVs etc) and transforming as much as we can.
We can go local and still have cars -- just smaller ones that we use less because we don't need them so much. We can use trains more for long distance transport and travel. We can have less aircraft aloft but still have a higher priced option for jet travel (and potentially more efficient turboprops on biofuel) with hydrogen powered aircraft as a future, post crisis, potential. We can replace natural gas and coal with solar and wind with energy storage and a new generation of nuclear plants. We can increase battery and electric power for industrial tools that build things like X2G autos, farm, mining, and metal producing equipment. In essence, we can leverage our fossil fuel endowment to transition to a non-fossil fuel economy. It will not be BAU. It will be an economic revolution in response to crisis.
Or we can hunker down, watch the system crash, and pray to the gods we can grow enough food ala Kunstler. Perhaps that is our ultimate fate. But people like you would have us go down into a very dark hole without even a peep of protest.
Marston you are the biggest jackass posting here.
There you go again making things up you wish ot thought I said.
You are full of fanciful garbage you say should be done. No explanation on how it will eventuate but you continue with the rhetoric anyway.
Try and imagine yourself in a boardroom..............
Tell them they should renew and expand infrastructure now, because it will be needed in the future.
Answer all the questions, you are only a halfwit but you should be able to think of a few they might ask.
Re: The real reason why oil is so expensive
IMO, a key test of where we really are with peak oil was how oil producers would react to $100/bbl oil. As OPEC slightly increased production late last year and into this year, I wondered whether this was a sustainable increase, or whether they had just pulled out all the stops to squeeze out every drop. If the latter, then we could expect production to back off, even if oil stays high.
Things are both the same, as in the Seventies, but yet different.
Same in the sense that Saudi Arabia and the world are now where Texas and the Lower 48 were at in the early Seventies. From 1972 to 1980, we saw a 1,000% increase in oil prices and the biggest drilling boom in US history. So, what we saw was the following equation: Higher Oil Prices + Increased Drilling = Lower Crude Oil Production.
Different in the sense that we are now pretty much out of "world," in the sense that we are out of large conventional oil fields that will allow us to continue to show material increases in production, so I expect to see: Higher Oil Prices + Increased Drilling = Lower Crude Oil Production.
I expect nonconventional production to slow the rate of decline.
And of course, IMO the ELM factors are going to produce a sharp asymmetrical post-peak decline in net oil exports.
Well, OPEC has been saying recently that "the world doesn't need more oil," or something to that effect (I can't seem to find hte article I read yesterday), and as such they won't increase production. So the real question is how much of that decision is because they don't want to increase production and how much of it is because they can't.
Of course, I see a middle ground where they feel if they give up their last bit of spare capacity now then it will quickly become evident that their oil fields, overall, are in slipping into decline. If they hold off on tappng whatever spare capacity they have to keep those production rates as level as possible they can keep the illusion (of spare capacity) going longer.
Who knows, maybe they will even "decide" to lower production soon.
freeyourmind,
I think that OPEC is correct. The worldwide supply of oil does meet demand. Of course, as prices escalate, demand is destroyed therefore supply can go down... and tada... worldwide supply of oil still meets demand. OPEC can keep saying "supply meets demand" as oil production declines year after year because prices will just keep rising to destroy the demand.
ZW
U.S. Will Approve New Nuclear Reactors
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=us-will-approve-new-nuclear-reactors...
This happened yesterday - a fission plant was shut down and 400 people were evacuated.
http://news.google.com/news?ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:offi...
To paraphrase one of the contributors on the right side of your screen 'if the energy peak is not addressed it will be a failure of politics, not of technology'.
So I'm going to ask - given the past demonstrated failures (AGW, sleeping fission guards, conflicts over oil, ... whatever particular failure one sees) what's the plan to change the non-technical aspects so that the 'failure of politics' does not occur?
(and because I only wanna make one post - the links I promised someone http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article/235929840-sick-people-or-sick-societi... gets you to http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/ideas_20080303_4892.mp3 and http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/ideas_20080310_4869.mp3)
Run for the hills!
And what he actually said was "It's my first day at work so I hope I don't blow up the place." Oh dear...
But according to the Administration, this is the sort of paranoia we must have in the age of terrorism. So guard the reactors like it's always 9/11 or give up the paranoia.
Don't hear about too many terrorist attacks against wind turbines.
You haven't heard of the hundreds of thousands of Neotropical migratory kamakazi songbirds who have been waging jihad against wind turbines?
not to mention don quiote
Windmills are so useless, why bother?
And rather, we guard nukes like it is the day BEFORE 9/11.
I went to a seminar yesterday given by David Mohon, a technology development supervisor for Southern Company, the largest electric utility in the Southeastern US. He talked about the pros and cons for the different sources of electrical generation in our area and what he saw the company doing in the next 20-30 years. For starters he read their official policy statement on climate change and CO2 which essentially says they acknowledge its a problem and are committed to addressing it but not in a way that is economically harmful. But it did lead him to conclude that new coal was off the table, at least until there is sound technology for carbon capture.
Turning to renewables, he showed maps of the relative resource for both wind and solar. This showed the relatively poor resources compared to the West and Southwest respectively and he concluded from this that they were off the table. I asked him about the likelihood of capturing it out West and shipping it east but this quickly led to a discussion of line losses. I was left with the impression that we will be sitting in the dark before anyone voluntarily gives up market share or even the perceived risk of losing market share. Given the talk at TOD for production out west with HVDC connecting east what we need is a cost comparison for this against just producing with the poorer resource in the east. Does anyone know if this exists?
His final conclusion was that in the next 20 years its nuclear and gas (with at least a recognition of the issue of reliability of supply for gas) going forward supplemented with as much biomass as we can figure out how to use. Returning to coal, at one point he did mention that even if we don't burn it we will export it and someone else will. And as HO might say, when reliability becomes an issue, people will demand that we burn it here. Hah, perhaps that has been the strategy all along.
HV DC line losses are close to 5% per 1,000 miles. This makes imports from Texas and Oklahoma economic (if we can get around ERCOTs refusal to be under FERC regulation for inter-state commerce).
The Southern Company has many possibilities for small hydro (not so good for large utility, too much overhead IMVHO). Rule of thumb is that paperwork for small hydro makes >10 MW uneconomic. Many small units (mainly in NE) are removed when 50 year recertification comes up.
If you can show him plans for Grand Inga (44 GW hydro).
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/inga.html
Best Hopes for Expanded Thinking,
Alan
Longer term, superinsulation may help transmission of electric via superconducting cables:
htt