DrumBeat: May 18, 2008
Posted by Leanan on May 18, 2008 - 9:35am
Topic: Miscellaneous
In Siberia, Shopping Malls Are Sprouting All Over
Siberia, where Russians waited in long lines to buy food with ration cards not long ago, is the improbable epicenter of a huge mall boom. As retail businesses shrink in the United States, provincial Russian towns like this one have become targets of retailers and shopping center developers from around the world. Malls in this area are even poaching managers from as far away as California.Across the great expanse of Russia — on plots cleared of birch groves and decrepit factories, on the territory of old airports and collective farms — big-box stores are rising at a rate of several a month. Russia is projected to open twice as much mall space as any other European country this year, and Europe will open more shopping centers this year than ever.
Finding young scientific and engineering talent also is a growing concern for the world's energy companies as they face what Chevron Corp. calls the "big crew change."During the next decade, more than half of the energy industry's employees are expected to retire, said Peter Robinson, vice chairman of Chevron, who was in Houston this spring to give a speech at Microsoft's Global Energy Forum.
World’s Poor Pay Price as Crop Research Is Cut
The budgets of institutions that delivered the world from famine in the 1970s, including the rice institute, have stagnated or fallen, even as the problems they were trying to solve became harder.
California farm product exporters face shipping squeeze
As the weak dollar makes the fruits of California farms ever more attractive to overseas buyers, big exporters like Sacramento's Blue Diamond Growers are finding it tougher to get their products to far-off customers.The high price of oil and shifts in the global balance of trade have made space on container ships hard to come by. Cargo rates are up sharply. Delays of several months have become routine.
Hezbollah’s Actions Ignite Sectarian Fuse in Lebanon
After almost a week of street battles that left scores dead and threatened to push the country into open war, long-simmering Sunni-Shiite tensions here have sharply worsened, in an ominous echo of the civil conflict in Iraq.
Juneau's utility faces consequences of past actions
AEL&P was operating close to the edge financially even before a series of avalanches took down a series of transmission lines feeding power to Juneau.With the loss of the Snettisham hydroelectric project's 78,299 kilowatts of power, the company - and the city - were left to rely on the few thousand kilowatts it could squeeze out of three old, small power dams and several big diesel generators. And suddenly, diesel had become frighteningly expensive.
Govt in no mood to revise fuel price: Finance Minister
KATHMANDU - At a time when the country is reeling under the shortage of petroleum products, Finance Minister Dr Ram Sharan Mahat Sunday announced that the government was not in a position to revise the fuel price.Minister Mahat also informed that the government cannot extend more loans to the cash-strapped Nepal Oil Corporation for the time being.
Chávez Seizes Greater Economic Power
CARACAS, Venezuela — Faced with shortages of foods, building materials and other staples, President Hugo Chávez is intensifying state control of the Venezuelan economy through a new wave of takeovers of private companies and the creation of government-controlled ventures with allies like Cuba and Iran.
To teens in the first decade of the 21st century
A university degree is not the best choice for a significant number of young people. They and society at large would be better served in other pursuits.Peter Drucker (1909-2005), was one of the world's wisest men on topics related to business, economics, and the future. A university professor himself, Drucker in 1997 predicted the demise of the residential college campus within 30 years (by the year 2027).
Los Angeles Eyes Sewage as a Source of Water
LOS ANGELES — Faced with a persistent drought and the threat of tighter water supplies, Los Angeles plans to begin using heavily cleansed sewage to increase drinking water supplies, joining a growing number of cities considering similar measures.
Germany Debates Subsidies for Solar Industry
Now, though, with so many solar panels on so many rooftops, critics say Germany has too much of a good thing — even in a time of record oil prices. Conservative lawmakers, in particular, want to pare back generous government incentives that support solar development. They say solar generation is growing so fast that it threatens to overburden consumers with high electricity bills.
The Simple Way To PoP The Oil Bubble Speculation
What is the simple answer to end the craziness?The USA government should pass a law that declares every oil contact bought on the mercantile exchanges must be delivered to the buyer and held in storage no longer that 6 months. It cannot be traded back onto the exchanges and its end use must be in an oil related business. Likewise, all sell contacts have to originate straight from companies that extract oil from the ground and they cannot trade contacts that have been purchased on the exchanges.
Legendary oilman says it's time to go green
"Three hundred dollar a barrel oil is where I think we are going," Thomas Homer-Dixon said Thursday night in Petrolia, Ont. -- the birthplace of the North American oil industry 150 years ago, in 1858.
This pundit is immersed in oil data
Tom Kloza, chief analyst for the Oil Price Information Service, is the go-to guy for those who want to know why gasoline prices are soaring and where they're heading.
Can Stephen Harper learn anything from Vladimir Putin?
Whereas Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is eager to allow the private sector to control this country's energy future, Putin went in the exact opposite direction.Reading Klare's work, it's clear that Putin never would have allowed the Chinese and the Americans to engage in a bidding war for Russia's bountiful oil and gas reserves.
Harper, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have the same concerns.
It's a crazy time for farmers, torn among environmental interests, the demand for cheap food and a chance to earn more.
Concerns about pipeline were ignored, inspectors say
Three former inspectors on the western portion of the Colorado-to-Ohio Rockies Express natural gas pipeline said a contractor on the project in Kansas used stealth, threats and bribery to make safety shortcuts while they hustled to get the pipe in the ground on deadline.
"With the train, I have to walk 20 minutes to get to the train, it's 30 minutes on the train, and then I have to wait for the shuttle here," he said. "It ends up being about an hour. The bike takes an hour-and-a-quarter, but then I don't have to go to the gym."Besides the health benefits, bicycling advocates say the potential savings for regular riders may be driving more people to consider a two-wheeled commute.
Coal, new gas to help avert crisis
What should Bangladesh do when oil price hits a $200 per barrel mark?
Russian Energy and U.S. Implications
Lost in a lot of the oil analysis these days is Russia's role. Over the past 5 years or so, Russia has provided roughly 80% of non-OPEC oil production growth. This increase in Russia's oil production was just what the doctor ordered to match concurrent increased demand from China, India, the Middle East, and Russia itself.That said, Russia's oil production peaked a few months ago and is now contracting - under the 10 million BPD average production rate of 2007. One can find multiple explanations for the decrease in Russian oil production: aging infrastructure, less Western oil company participation, high tax rates, or perhaps just Russian government officials asking themselves. Or perhaps depletion rates are catching up with new production.
Australia: Fears over state's food security
VICTORIA'S ability to feed itself is threatened by new farming practices and cheap imported fruit and vegetables, warns a major food report commissioned by the State Government.Competition for water and increased fuel costs are driving farmers away from essential food production to high-value export-oriented crops such as wine, almonds and dairy.
The Secure and Sustainable Food Systems for Victoria report said food supply problems were so severe that consumers' access to affordable, healthy diets was jeopardised.
No need for emergency OPEC meeting: Attiyah
DUBAI • Oil markets are balanced and there is no need for an emergency OPEC meeting before September despite record oil prices, Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry H E Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah said yesterday.
Iran sees daily gasoline imports of 20m liters
TEHRAN: Iran expects to import about 20 million liters of gasoline per day during the 2008-9 year, less than half the amount it would have imported had it not launched rationing last June, an energy official said yesterday. But the figure was still 5 million liters higher than an import estimate given by another oil official in February, before Iran allowed the sale of extra, higher-priced gasoline outside the rationing system launched in June last year.
Oman to invest $10bn in oil production
Oman is investing $10bn until 2011 in a programme to boost oil production. By using enhanced oil recovery – using gas to pump out additional crude – the country believes it can hit 900,000 barrels a day.
A big cause of the high price of gasoline
Here is a test question for you: The next time you find yourself irritated by the price of gasoline, you need to remind yourself of how much -- or little -- of that nearly $4 per gallon charge is the oil company's profit. How much is that profit, anyway?
Record oil may hold stocks hostage
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks will face major obstacles to extending their gains next week if the price of oil continues to break records, as fears about inflation and the discretionary spending power of the embattled American consumer are forced into the spotlight.
When cars compete with people for food
Crude oil prices hit $120 a barrel this month, translating into gas pump prices above $4 a gallon in parts of the United States. As a result, the rallying cry of energy self-sufficiency is gaining strength, reinforcing the U.S. policy of promoting renewable fuels, particularly corn-based ethanol, to reduce dependence on imported oil.But a different rallying cry - food self-sufficiency - is becoming louder in many developing countries where rice, wheat and other staples are in such short supply that food riots have erupted. China, India, Argentina and several other countries have raised export restrictions on key crops to ensure food supplies for their consumers. That move has further increased world prices.
Iran confirms Khatibi as new OPEC governor
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has officially announced the replacement of its long-time governor to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the Oil Ministry's website Shana said on Sunday.
"If you extrapolate what happened with gas prices the last two years over the next 10 to 15 years, something has got to happen." Mast said. "We've laid our country out - where we live and where we work - based on the automobile and cheap gas."Mast said consumers better get used to the term "peak oil" - the moment when oil production reaches its highest point and begins to decline because all petroleum sources have been tapped.
Our contention in 2000 is the same as today: It is poorer communities and families that can least afford to waste energy. Our agencies, churches, public schools and homes are the first to feel the effects of quadrupling energy prices, causing us to make the hard choices between heat, food, gasoline to power older cars to get back and forth to lower-paying jobs, and the important civic and educational uplift programs we need to survive in an increasing hostile economy.
Was Malthus just off a few decades?
There are some 75 million more people to feed each year! Consumption of meat and other high-quality foods — mainly in China and India — has boosted demand for grain for animal feed. Poor harvests due to bad weather in this country and elsewhere have contributed. High energy prices are adding to the pressures as some arable land is converted from growing food crops to biofuel crops and making it more expensive to ship the food that is produced.
Plans for new coal plants under fire
Protesters are to launch one of the hardest-hitting environmental campaigns for more than a decade over plans to build a new generation of coal-fired power stations in the UK.Senior scientists, City investors, international leaders and MPs from all parties have joined environmental groups in condemning plans to approve coal plants before there are guarantees that they will be fitted with equipment to stop the release of harmful greenhouse gases.
Market developing in carbon credits
The European Climate Exchange is based in London.The Chicago Climate Exchange is based in Chicago.
The Global Emissions Exchange wants to open a branch in your living room.
Zones of death are spreading in oceans due to global warming
Marine dead zones, where fish and other sea life can suffocate from lack of oxygen, are spreading across the world’s tropical oceans, a study has warned.Researchers found that the warming of sea water through climate change is reducing its ability to carry dissolved oxygen, potentially turning swathes of the world’s oceans into marine graveyards.



Does anyone have a guess of when the US will see the first major shortage?
Demand destruction is just a shortage by economic class. If you are poor there is currently a shortage. If you have the money, gas is just expensive.
Pretty soon that has to shift to a broader shortage. My hope is that we will seriously wakeup at the first general shortage. There are so many potential causes, we cannot avoid them all forever; trucker strike, terrorist attack, hoarding, hurricane (Gulf), earthquake (LA), pipeline decay, etc....
What would TOD recommend as the actions that should be taken today to decrease oil use?
Today ?
Walk more, bicycle more, travel less, relocate closer to work and in walkable communities.
A "free market" will not have prolonged shortages. 5 digit gas prices ($22.78/9 per gallon) perhaps, but not shortages.
Alan
I'm amazed at the traffic in Italy at about $9 per gallon. Smaller, more efficient vehicles, and lots of scooters, but very heavy traffic nevertheless.
Of course there is traffic. People just love to GO! and without oil, they walk!
I remember a couple of years in Brazil in the early 60's, before anyone had cars. Life was good except for the very poor (who probably weren't that much worse off than the very poor today in the USA). The streets were filled with people -- walking.
Nostalgic, I know, but I could get used to a city that didn't have petroleum-fueled vehicular traffic. To be sure, people's ranges would be restricted, but would that be such a bad thing?
Hey N, I've been wishing decades for people to be able to stop saying "golly what a small world" Everywhere you go not only 'there you are' but also there is a effing MacDonalds or Wallmart and some god awful paunchy camera toting tourist looking at one like out of a mirror.
Interesting questions are average trip length and km per day. I speculate it's much less than typical US patterns.
My guess would be even US patterns aren't at all typical-i.e. the yearly miles driven per vehicle cover a broad range. Urban USA auto owners IMO will be able to tolerate extremely high gasoline prices-as development densifies, more auto users can tolerate even higher prices.
I started walking to work this past week. 1.7 miles each way, and I even lived to tell about it! ;-)
I'm in the process of getting an article about walking to work written for TOD:Local, I hope to get it done in the next few weeks if I can find the time.
One of the great things about walking to work is that I am now insulated from motor fuel price increases. This applies equally for those that bicycle.
Yes, one of the biggest problems is not the automobile necessarily, but automobile dependency. If you don't need a car -- able to walk to work and the supermarket -- then you can look at gas prices and decide IF you want to use the car or not. Thus, high gas prices are completely avoidable. Cancel the tour of Civil War battlefields and spend the weekend gardening and enjoying a barbecue with friends instead. Big deal.
Yes, check out the invite for TOD:Local over in the sidebar, folks...you'll see what we're looking for.
The first major shortage has already hit, the shortage of capital.
Bill, I am not being frivolous in saying that the shortage of capital has led to a shortage in loans which has lead to a shortage of customers (c.f. the housing market) which has led to a shortage of jobs which is leading to a shortage of customers and taxpayers which is leading to a shortage of capital. The first hoarding seems to be the hording of capital by many of those who have it. In watching the machinations of the markets (equity, exchange, bonds and commodities) it seems these folks are frantically trying to find safe places to hide their capital until it is safe to apply it again. The price of oil has led to huge capital accumulations in some corporations but they are not applying most of this to new activity but are simply dispersing it in share buy backs and dividends. This money is mainly going to those refered to above who are trying to protect their capital. As the job shortage increases it may balance the supply and demand of all other goods for some time. As others have pointed out there are economic "shortages" at the bottom of society and these will gradually creep up to higher income levels as the median income level declines. Baring some physical reason for a sudden shortage things may just deteriorate with no line ups or shoot outs at the pumps or anywhere else.
The capital constriction appears accurate.
I am not sure about the "no line ups or shoot outs at the pump". Instability seems to lead to more instability. It seems the economy in sustained by the ability to trust, transport and transact. Transport is in significant trouble. Trust will likely breakdown if transportation fails.
Sadly I think you are correct. However the destitute are already resorting to theft of fuel because of their cash shortage. There are no line-ups in suburban driveways at 2AM but we will probable see more shootings there soon. As far as FF shortages go I think we will see diesel (home heating oil) and propane shortages first. My understanding is they are pure distilates from crude and cracking methods are not used to make them so their availability is directly correlated to the volume of crude being processed. Crude availability and refinery utilisation come into play here. Perhaps someone can tell us if heavier crudes have less or more diesel grade and propane than the light stuff. Of course diesel demand seems to be sensitive to economic activity so that a recession may ease the problem.I also agree that once food and fuel stop arriving reliably at the retail outlets things could get ugly very fast.
I do worry about propane. Since I've started walking to work, our household is now down to using well under 200 gal of motor fuel per year. But we probably use about five times that much or more in propane, and that's with the programable thermostat set to 66/60F all winter. I'll be chopping a lot more wood for the wood stove this winter, and need to be getting solar hot water and solar space heating on a fast track. With any luck, the next administration will increase the credits for these.
WNC...If you write that piece, you should submit it to the MountainX as well. Also, check the Iwanna...occasionally I see solar water heaters pop up in there General > Heating and Cooling > Other Heating. Generally dirt cheap.
Crappy insolation where I am and the house isn't mine, so I can only look at them and sigh.
Thanks for the tip. Since plumbing and I don't get along very well, I'm inclined to leave the solar H2O to a professional. A homebrew solar air heating panel might be within my DIY capabilities, though.
I'm not sure where you live, but here in the UK residential solar thermal in contrast to PV power is a very viable alternative - it is good for up to around 55 degrees north at least, and not many people live above that latitude.
You should be able to save around 50% of your hot water bills, and could always take the panels with you.
My lattitude is fantastic, but I'm on the north side of a mountain and surrounded by trees.
Yikes! :-(
You might want to consider relocation. I'm on a south slope with an E-W roofline, giving me a good southern exposure. That's a big reason why I bought the house - I knew that some day I might need to add solar.
Instability translates into higher risk premiums, which raise ROI thresholds impossibly high.
This kind of circular dependency is not only showing up in the capital markets, but in resoource and infrastructure markets as well. Shortages of drilling rigs can be traced around a circuitous route right back to ... a shortage of drilling rigs.
It brings to mind the childhood ditty about "There's a hole in my bucket"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There's_a_hole_in_the_bucket
Exactly right. People should start noticing that high oil prices are not resulting in a huge surge of new investments in FF exploration & production, nor in a huge program of new nuclear power plant construction, nor in nearly enough new investments in alternative energy facilities, nor in major energy efficiency schemes like Alan's EOT. There is some of this going on, to be sure, but not nearly enough. It is very much a case of much too little, much too late. Lack of capital is indeed the problem, and this is ominous, because it means that it is unlikely that the investments that need to be made ever will be made. This is the fatal flaw in cornucopian thinking: even if their technofix ideas are theoretically feasible, the lack of funding will render them economically impossible.
CARPOOLING.
Facilitate and Vocally Promote this nationwide, as a clear way to cut commuting gas consumption and the cost to these consumers in half, third, quarter, as well as reducing road congestion and wasteful Rush-hour jams (where cars approach 0 mpg as they sit there..).
With internet and cell-phones, we have some great tools to help make this possible. Employers could help by working with employees on scheduling issues, city and state leadership should promote this, possibly hosting web-services.. while some private sites are already doing this.. (Anybody know links to this, and how well they work?
Google Search hit these ones..
www.iCarpool.com
http://www.carboncatalog.org/projects/internet-based-carpool-matching/
http://www.smartcommute.ca/ (and news story about this one.. http://www.canadiandriver.com/news/051125-1.htm )
Bob
(that was the 'do as I say, not as I do' post. I am a freelancer, about to fly to Vegas for two weeks, where I'll walk to work and around the strip while I'm there, or get to the casino with one of my colleagues' rental cars. Last time, I never even picked up the Rental car that the client provided for each of us. I take the bus, walk, and ride with the other guys. Who wants to drive in Vegas anyway? Of course flying there is automatically 'Plane-pooling', right?
Meanwhile, I'm in the basement, working on custom 'machining' some plywood pulleys to open and close the 'concentrator barndoors' for my Solar Hot Air heater, so it's shaded in Summer and warm days.. I hope to have TWO of these on my roof by summer's end, to cut down our use of Heating Oil in those chilly Maine winters, as well as a few other solar collectors for Electricity, Lighting and Heat for Washing, Home heat and Cooking. Lotta projects!)
Here's a link to the Hot-Air Heater concept that mine is based on..
http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/SpaceHeating/Kreamer%20Air%20Collec...
the root 'build it solar' site has a gazillion project ideas people can try. MANY can be done with scrap and scavenged materials, which is recycling AND saving bucks! Great payback when the materials are 'Dumpster-Sourced' I have 12 sheets of Porch-door sized tempered glass 34"x70" to use for these kinds of projects! FREE!
ps, collect Glass and Mirrors! High energy materials, but durable and extremely useful for countless energy projects.
Ride sharing is not just for daily commutes. We tried, without success, to find a rider on our last holiday trip to visit my wife's mother 450 miles away. We'll keep trying on future trips; things will eventually get bad enough that we'll start getting takers.
I have also tried this on several trip via CraigsList. It was not easy and I was offering a free ride.
I think the time just hasn't been ripe up to now. I sense a shift in attitudes and behaviors is underway. There are several websites dedicated to matching people up for ride sharing, those are probably better places to try.
Personal lifestyle changes work for me. These days I walk as many places as I can and, aside from saving fossil energy, my physical energy has increased enormously.
We can also effectively increase fuel efficiency by carpooling. One car carrying three people uses one-third the fuel of three cars carrying one person.
Finally, modern offices make increasingly little sense. What I see is people commuting into work, taking the elevator to their office in a skyscraper, then sitting down at a computer to communicate to collegues by email. That could be done from home.
Of course, teams do need "face time" but, for many teams, once a week (or less) would do fine. Also, getting out of the house may be important for some people to work effectively. In that case, mini offices at a local shopping mall could be a solution.
We are spending enormous amounts of energy to support a communications mechanism (the office building) that doesn't really need to exist anymore.
Is it actually consuming more energy than it saves overall? All the people in the building are getting heat or air conditioning communally for their tiny cubicles, which must be cheaper than having them all sitting in their individually heated or air conditioned McMansions. Of course there is then the energy cost to get to/from the building from home. I'm sure these sort of analyses have been done, but I haven't heard the results.
You forget that the heat & a/c are left on at home to keep their pets comfortable.
Alan
Define 'major'.
I've been thinking about a response to those that believe that "speculators" are adding X amount of $'s to the price of a barrel of crude oil and have come to the conclusion that these folks may be correct. If so, does this bring some kind of comfort to the reality of the price of oil? Think about who the speculators are. Who has so much money to throw at the price of oil to make such a sustained effect? Is it just masses of individual investors deciding to buy their own barrels of oil contracts? Don't think so. Or if there are speculators jumping in to up the price of crude, is it the folks with HUGE amounts of money and control of hedge fund directions?
People like George Soros (Soros Fund Management LLC), Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.), Bill Gates , Matt Simmons (Simmons & Company), James Simons (Renaissance Technologies Corporation), Ken Griffin (Citadel Investment Group), and Steven Cohen (SAC) don't make bad bets very often. What if the "speculators" are making good bets RIGHT NOW?? If the price of crude is 20% due to speculators and those speculators are pretty damn good a making bets, shouldn't this concern people as much as if the price of crude was merely due to supply and demand tightness?
Food for thought.
We've seen an ironic role reversal lately. As Paul Krugman pointed out recently, traditionally people on the left demonize speculators for high commodity prices; but lately economic conservatives like Steve Forbes have blamed speculators for the escalation in oil prices, even though in other contexts they defend speculators for the allegedly beneficial role they play in anticipating and managing the supplies of scarce goods in the market, along with their ability to extract huge profits by doing so.
The Peak Oil aware crowd knows its not speculation. Its the deniers that say there is plenty of oil in the ground who conclude it is speculation.
Two signs that it is not speculation: First, hoarding is not rampant. Crude oil tank facilities are not full of oil that speculators are keeping off the market. Second, there is not any volatility in the longterm futures vs. short term futures. Looking forward 10 years, low price is 120 high is 128, thats a 7% diference. If the market was speculation driven, you would expect more volatility.
Does investment = speculation?
Who knows the investment strategy of hedge funds. Perhaps they have a strategy of only investing in short term contracts and then dumping them at set times. You are looking for "typical" indicators of speculation. Old rules and patterns do not necessarily mean the future will operate this way.
If there is speculation the oil has to be stored somewhere - it isn't being stored above ground - but I suspect it is being stored below ground (another word would be hoarding) since with the current rate of price increase the oil is worth more if produced in the future rather than now, this has not been possible until recently.
I have no idea what futures market you are looking at ArianB, but if you are looking at the NYMEX your figures are a little off. Looking at NYMEX Crude Oil (Light) the highest pric