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DrumBeat: May 17, 2008
Posted by Leanan on May 17, 2008 - 9:17am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Someday, family road trips may become completely unaffordable. People who study the oil industry say that classic summer road trips could be going the way of the extinct Ford Edsel.That's because the demand for oil is increasing all over the world. In India and China, the number of new cars on the road has been rapidly increasing. In China, there are thousands of new automobiles hitting the streets every day.
In addition, some experts say the production of oil worldwide may have peaked.
In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist with Shell Oil, presented a paper to the American Petroleum Institute that predicted US oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then follow a declining curve, now known as Hubbert's curve. But Hubbert almost didn't get to give his paper. He got a call from his bosses at Shell, who asked him to "tone it down." His reply was that there was nothing to tone down. It was just straightforward analysis. He presented the paper, unedited...Since that time, the oil industry and its political supporters have done everything they can to tone down the message that oil is a finite resource and that we will run out of it some day. Why would they do that? To further the short-sighted, short-term pursuit of profit. In 2004, Shell finally got caught in a lie about the size of its oil reserves. The company had inflated the stated size of its oil reserves to keep stock share prices high because who wants to invest in a company - or an industry - that is going the way of the dinosaurs?
Russia accused of annexing the Arctic for oil reserves by Canada
The battle for "ownership" of the polar oil reserves has accelerated with the disclosure that Russia has sent a fleet of nuclear-powered ice breakers into the Arctic.
The Unexpected Winners In The Oil And Food Crunch
High oil and food prices are a double blow no nation can dodge entirely. Even oil states like Iran are seeing food-price protests. But there's a small class of farm-and-gas exporters for whom the dual spike is more opportunity than threat. Canada, Brazil, Vietnam and Thailand are all enjoying the windfalls, and even war-tattered Cambodia is now reimagining its future. It's "the only country in the world that has oil and gas reserves that are still untapped, as well as land available for agriculture," says Marvin Yeo, who left the Asian Development Bank to start one of Cambodia's first venture-capital firms.
Analysis: Saudis protect own interests in oil production
WASHINGTON — When President Bush, once a Texas oilman, asked Saudi Arabia to pump more crude, he may have forgotten that the Saudis have a long memory. And that made it a good bet his mission this past week would produce a dry hole.
Ecuador offers to buy out oil companies unwilling to negotiate new contracts
QUITO, Ecuador (AP) - President Rafael Correa says Ecuador wants to buy out private oil companies unwilling to negotiate new deals with his government.Correa has asked companies now suing over an October decree that slashed their share of windfall oil profits to 1 percent to drop their lawsuits.
Lack of refinery flexibility impacts global crude market: report
DOHA: Lack of refinery flexibility is impacting the global crude oil market, Opec’s latest market report said.Between 2000 and 2007, the growth in distillate demand outpaced the increase in gasoline consumption, mainly because of the resilient economic situation in developing countries, and more recently, the increased use of diesel generators. While distillate demand rose by 5.2mn bpd, the Opec report said gasoline consumption increased by only 2mn bpd during the period.
Algeria to double oil refining capacity-Khelil
ALGIERS (Reuters) - OPEC-member Algeria will increase its oil refining capacity to 50 million tonnes per year by 2014 from 22 million tonnes currently, Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Saturday.
Saudi Arabia's monarch is using Aramco — the crack state oil company — to build a Western-style university in a bid to outflank the repressive clergy.
Indonesia limits fuel purchases ahead of price rise: report
JAKARTA (AFP) - Indonesia's oil and gas company Pertamina has set limits on subsidised fuel purchases ahead of the government's plans to hike fuel prices, reports said Saturday.
Virgin Boss Warns Of Airline Casualties
There could be more casualties in the airline industry because of spiralling costs, Sir Richard Branson has warned.
Australia: Drivers face fuel ration shock
FUEL rationing may be one in a series of shocks facing drivers and commuters in Queensland.Looming oil shortages would produce the biggest change in society since the industrial revolution, Sustainability Minister Andrew McNamara warned yesterday.
...Mr McNamara says he will recommend the State Government focuses urgently on ways to cut private-car use.
"I cannot overstate this – we need to adopt a wartime mentality," he said. "We're going to face a level of urgency that will require dramatic change."
New Zealand: Saving for survival
As the cost of living stretches household budgets to breaking point and beyond, many people are reassessing their spending habits and lifestyles in order to make ends meet.
Diesel 'mystery' deepens as fuel prices surge ahead unevenly
AA public affairs manager Conor Faughnan said: "We have never seen prices rise so fast or reach so high. It is having a major impact on diesel motorists, the cost of haulage and business costs. It's bad for consumers and the economy as a whole."...One explanation for the rapidly increasing diesel prices is that US refineries overestimated demand for gasoline last year, creating a petrol glut and a diesel shortage in the markets.
Goldman sees oil averaging $141 in second half
Goldman Sachs once again issued a provocative forecast for the price of crude oil Friday, saying a barrel is likely to average $141 over the second half of the year -- a further 10% or so above the latest in what's been a string of record highs.
Mexico's Oiling Days Are Numbered
Even without a terror attack on its oil facilities, Mexico's output is falling sharply and could end as soon as 10 years. Its president is setting an example by fighting a difficult Congress and culture to reverse that.
Canada - For the birds; Confusing, arbitrary rules prevent local farmers from feeding us
The food we eat must be processed using oil. Oil is running out and its cost is getting higher every day.
To hear some people talk, you'd think biofuels were the cause of world hunger, global warming, food riots and the growing divide between rich and poor.Caught between environmentalists' righteous indignation on the one hand and big oil's vested interests on the other, the biofuels industry is becoming the favourite whipping boy for all the world's ills.
The great green mirage still beyond the horizon
A gleam in the eye of George W. Bush, ethanol turns out to be the villain behind soaring prices for food and gasoline.
Higher food profits haven't hit the farm
Fertilizer and fuel costs are rising along with grain prices, so diversifying into biofuels can help lower financial risks.
Saudi oil output boost doesn't solve problem - Bush
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush said on Saturday he was pleased with a boost in Saudi oil output but it did not solve problems in the U.S...."It's something but it doesn't solve our problem," Bush told reporters. "Our problem in America gets solved if we expand our refining capacity, promote nuclear energy and continue our strategy for the advancement of alternative energies."
The Caribbean will pay a price for flatfootedness, says economist
"In a lecture in 2001, I tried to explain that oil prices would increase to US$80 per barrel. (This indicates a US$3 billion dollar increase to the airline industry alone in operational expenses as a consequence for tourism in the Caribbean).I shall like now to suggest that according to our analysis at the Landfall Centre, we expect oil prices to hit between US$150-US$200 per barrel in the next three years."
Our tails get in the way: The problems and principles of energy descent
Let us imagine ourselves climbing up a rather steep and precarious tree, boosted up by fossil energies into a place we simply could never get to without them. The problems we are facing right now all originate in our fundamental inability to voluntarily set limits -- that is, at no point did most of us even recognize the basic necessity of stopping at a point at which we could get down on our own, without our petrocarbon helpers.
Digging a Hole (review of Bad Money)
Phillips argues that financial recklessness, combined with peak oil and the rise of Asian economic power, will doom — has already doomed — American world leadership and our standard of living, which depend on the value of the dollar. The leading edge of collapse, in the form of the subprime mortgage and banking crises, is already on us, and the consequences will make future imperial adventures untenable, in Iraq and elsewhere.
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am–stuck in the middle with you. Or is it the clowns moving to the left while we are lacking political courage on the right? You may not like to face the fact but the way this nation is playing politics with our nation’s energy security it seems we are moving too far to the almost socialist left at a time when more than ever we have to allow market based solutions address our nations critical energy needs.
A master short-seller v. the shorts
"Everybody in the world is trying to call the end of resources. They're just wrong every day, and every day they look worse.""I would say that 80 per cent of our resources [investments] are in what I would call 'survival resources.' Gold and silver are kind of a survival tactic we have and I regard energy as almost a survival thing now."
"If you believe in peak oil, you're not looking at a resource, you're looking at it like, 'Oh my god, here's a big problem the world is going to have' ... So, do I really see energy prices coming down? No, not in your lifetime, or mine for that matter..."
On one day in 2005 or 2006, more oil was pumped from the earth’s crust than had ever been done before, and has been done since: this is the concept of peak oil, and suggests the literal and figurative "end of the road" for the age of material progress which has been built largely on the extremely profitable "energy return on energy invested" obtainable from crude oil.
The Ultimate Race: Global Warming vs. Peak Oil
You think managing a fantasy team, or filling out an NCAA bracket, or picking a Derby winner (OK, Big Brown wasn't actually that tough a call) is hard? How about handicapping Armageddon?Yet, courageously, we do it every week. Some weeks, of course, are tougher than others.
Pennsylvanians fight to survive gas crisis
Natural gas prices in the midstate are about to break the record they set after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.Reading-based UGI said Friday that rates for residential customers will rise by 11.4 percent on June 1. The reason is higher wholesale gas prices, which are driven this time by the soaring price of crude oil, not hurricane damage in the Gulf of Mexico.
BP ban urged over petrol hikes
Drivers are being urged to boycott BP as anger grows over record petrol prices.Mass emails have been sent urging motorists not to fill up at its service stations.
Protesters behind the plan hope hitting BP in the pocket will force it to cut prices and panic rivals into following suit.
Rust In Peace: G.M.’s Dreadful Engines Gave Diesels a Bad Name
The second energy crisis that came with the Iranian revolution put the heat on Detroit to improve its corporate fuel economy numbers. The diesel was seen as a way of having one’s cake and eating it, too — good fuel economy without sacrificing the size and cushy ride that American luxury car buyers expected.
Now is the time to buy uranium
After the decline in prices in 2007, I am almost certain that uranium prices have now formed a bottom. Why do I believe this?First, the world needs more energy. China and India will continue to need more energy. Both Asian countries are vulnerable to oil and natural gas imports. China now imports 50 per cent of its crude oil and India imports 50 per cent of its natural gas.
Even in Western Canada, peak oil production is pushing the world to look for alternatives to petroleum.
Peak Oil: Everything is going to change
STATE REP. TERRY BACKER (CONNECTICUT)There is little government can do about the price of oil. That is not what people want to hear. Yet it is a fact. The U.S. government and all the states have no "Plan B." They continue to rely on a delusional "Plan A" — more oil and cheaper oil all the time. Politicians, generally asleep at the wheel on this issue, have been shocked into trying to do something about the current and future problems arising from oil costs. They are spinning around looking for someone to blame, dazed by the precipitous rise from $50 per barrel last January to $126 this past week.
Iran says mosque bombers planned oil pipeline attack
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Intelligence Ministry said on Saturday U.S. agents had armed and trained those behind a deadly blast in a mosque last month and that pipelines in the country's oil-rich south were also among the planned targets.President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday Iran had evidence the United States, Britain and Israel were involved in the April 12 blast in the southern city of Shiraz that killed 14 people and wounded 200.
Like father, like son: Bush pleads for Saudi help, but world oil market has changed
So what have the Saudis done since 2005, when oil prices climbed above $70 a barrel, then $80, then $90, and this year broke the once-unthinkable threshold of $100? They've increased production capacity, meaning that in a pinch they could make up the difference between global demand and available supply. They now can produce 11 million barrels per day (bpd), and expect that number to reach 12.5 million bpd by 2010.
UK: Soaring bills leave families just £50 a week
“Wage growth is fairly muted, but the essentials — utility bills, petrol prices and council taxes, mortgages — are all rising very fast. I am not surprised that many people on an average income can no longer afford a family-sized car or a decent-sized house.”
Iran criticizes Saudi for oil production increase
TEHRAN - Iran on Saturday criticized a decision by Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production, Fars news agency reported.While terming the Saudi decision a "political move," Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari told Fars that a production increase would just lead to a further increase in reserves.
Russian oil giant Rosneft says it has shown state companies can be efficient
Russian top oil producer Rosneft has shown over the past year that state companies can be efficient and is ready to broaden co-operation with Western majors, Rosneft's chairman Igor Sechin, left, said yesterday.
Oil liquid gold for Canadian economy
The record-breaking run up in oil prices -- which this week pushed the TSX through the 15,000 barrier for the first time and the Canadian dollar back above parity -- has been the saviour of the Canadian economy in a time of global cataclysm.
Climate change threatens French truffle
Prolonged drought in many of their prime growing regions in Europe and predictions about global warming suggest the future is about as black as the truffles themselves, to the despair of the growers."The bad harvest years, which used to be the exception, are becoming the norm," Jean-Charles Savignac, President of the Federation Francaise des Trufficulteurs (FFT), told Reuters.
UK demands repayment of climate aid to poor nations
Britain's £800m international project to help the poorest countries in the world adapt to climate change was under fire last night after it emerged that almost all the money offered by Gordon Brown will have to be repaid with interest.
Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari told Fars that a production increase would just lead to a further increase in reserves".
My interpritation "That stuff looks just as good under our sand as it does in your tanks"
Over on blogginheads.tv, John Horgan speaks with Thomas Homer-Dixon, on topics often discussed here. Some of you may find it of interest (there are references to Diamond and Tainter):
http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/11143
Enjoy.
Thanks for the link InJapan. It was a great interview. I had been thinking about buying Homer-Dixon's book "The Upside of Down" for some time but this Bloggingheads episode persuaded me to do so. I went to Amazon.com and was reading the reviews when I saw this:
"Why don't we face reality?" Well hell, if Homer-Dixon can shed some light on that question then I must read the book. That's when I clicked and bought the book.
Ron Patterson
I happen to have a copy sitting at my feet right now and I highly recommend it (why exactly I have it on the floor next to the computer, I'm not so sure). One interesting thing is that there is about 200 pages of endnotes in it that initially left me feeling sort of ripped off, but are very good reading in themselves. He goes through explanations of climate change, peak oil, and EROEI that are nothing new to TOD readers, but he also provides a very interesting take on Roman decline.
I've also got a copy of "The Ingenuity Gap" that I've been reading here and there. It's quite good, but the awful jacket cover and the author photo on the rear flap have been barriers to my reading (he looks like a Sears catalogue "cool dad" model).
While I'm recommending books, I also recently read "Technopoly" by Neil Postman (1989 or so) which was not TOO bad. The book has some fairly serious problems, but I think it provides a thought-provoking look at the effects of technology (including writing, statistics and polls, in addition to the obvious computers and such). I wouldn't put it at the top of any list, but it's alright.
With reference to "why don't we face reality?" While 'Tad' does go into this conundrum, I might argue that TOD's own Nate Hagens is about the best source on that topic that I've come across.
[taking bag of money from TOD staff]
For those who think anything is going to change in November.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8977
For those who know its not.
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
"Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire. "
"An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life. "
Robert A. Heinlein
"To Ride, Shoot Straight and Speak the Truth" Jeff Cooper
Things are going to change in November. They're going to get worse. About a 99.999% chance of it.
By change, I meant changing the "rolling down hill like a snowball headed for hell" Shameless Haggard reference.
You have done such a good job of keeping things like the Patriot Act from being approved, no wonder it will get worse.
"Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria."
When ever I hear these words, look for a strong turn toward the Right. Of course these are from my favorite fascist writer, Heinlein, who was always a fun read.
Well, TS Eliot could write quite well, and he even surpassed Heinlein in supporting fascism.
The Wasteland is still enjoyable to read.
"To Ride, Shoot Straight and Speak the Truth" Jeff Cooper
I believe that that saying originated in Persia; something like "teach him to ride, shoot well and speak only the truth".
Yeah, those disarmed Japanese display constant rudeness towards one another, while the Iraqis armed to the teeth get along with each other famously. People call Robert Heinlein's published fantasy life "science fiction" for a reason.
I wouldn't exactly call the Japenese disarmed, they just have a tradition of swords instead of firearms. Their fear of firearms dates back to the samurai, which made a peasant equal to the samurai on the battlefield, funny how that works out.
If you think an unarmed society has less crime, perhaps you should research what happend to the crime rate in England after Blair disarmed everyone. "Don't worry, the police are here to find out who robbed/raped/killed you."
DC says that the police aren't obligated to protect you, so what are they for?
Someone here said government would be lucky to answer the phones, sounds about right. They didn't even do that during Katrina.
Yes, the phrase is Persian. The book is by Jeff Cooper.
Guns don't create the courtesy, however. Sometimes they establish a delicate truce, sometimes a condition of enforced obedience.. I wouldn't confuse these with a culture that has established a tradition of courtesy. Our traditions of short-tempered rage and self-deprecating jealousy might too often upstage our wish for 'Polite Niceness'.
I am sure that this does not fit jrc9596's ideology, but twice, in two separate planning forums, New Orleanians were asked what they most wanted to preserve about our beloved city.
It was not music, food, architecture or even Mardi Gras
In both cases, by large margins, it was the way that we relate to each other.
Many native New Orleanians, after being forced out, lived for the first time elsewhere in the USA and were uniformly shocked by the social isolation prevalent elsewhere in the USA.
"People don't talk to each other".
Best Hopes for New Orleans,
Alan
You just have to give them lots of guns, and then they can talk about ammo and camo, safe in the knowldege that a people well-encumbered with pistolas will never be subjected to economic, educational or social deprivations. Who would dare?
problem solved!
No, we're just bitter, like our meat fresh, and very cynical of smooth talking lawyers and politicians.
Only been to New Orleans once during Mardi Gras in 93, seemed like a nice place but I didn't have much time or money so I didn't stay long. Like most places in the old south, people related to each other very well. Of course, it was a very dangerous city then as well.
Here in Oklahoma City alot of Katrina refugees have stayed because of the same small town atmosphere here that they had there. The rest of the states is pretty impersonal from what I have seen, but most of my travels in the past 10 years have been Europe and Aisa so I probably just have the wrong first impression.
How about the Swiss? Aren't all the the men between 19 and 54 required to have assault rifles at home?
something like that.
In 1946, the Swiss bought a shed load of tracked armoured vehicles from Germany. They were low profile , slanted armour 75 mm gunned high velocity weapon systems.
They were called the 'Hetzer' which is German for trouble maker.
aka Teenage boy.
One of these things could quite happly defend a mountain pass.
Nobody has fooked with the Swiss since Napoleon....
Hetzer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hetzer
From the People's Republic of California, a new way to balance the budget. Pass the word on, this pretty scary.
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=4832471&page=1
Heh. That's one reason I don't see farmland as the perfect investment. You only own something as long as the state says you own it. And it's not like you can hide land under your mattress.
And IME, small, local governments are even more corrupt than the state or the feds. They won't take your property and sell it to balance the budget. They'll take it because their brother in law wants it.
Keeping in mind your earlier warnings about "brother-in-law on the couch" syndrome, it seems that you have an issue with inlaws of the male kind! ((But, given the prevalence of mother-in-law jokes, perhaps you may just be trying to redress the gender balance?)
I can't take credit for "brother in the law on the couch." That is the work of Sharon Astyk (who posts here as "Jewish Farmer.")
Yes, I remember now, it was Sharon. But the point that you both make with your brother-in-law comments remains valid. That is, that in Post-Peak times those familial ties which, in the affluence of the latter half of the Twentieth Century, became thin and attenuated will again become thick. The blood-relation network will increase in strength.
Also, one of the unexpected, overlooked, but perhaps most significant, by-products of the Post-Peak world will be that we will all need to learn to cope better with the propinquity of others in the home, in public transport, and in all sorts of local transactions. Instead of being individual atoms we will need to learn to (again) become social molecules. It may be uncomfortable at first but but an increased ability to be at ease in close proximity with those beyond our immediate nuclear-family circle bodes well for the growth of community.
Excellent point, Tasman, about family ties becoming stronger in hard times.
I've been having a conversation with someone from SE Asia about the survival value of extended families. We both grew up in large close families, and have happy recollections of them. As adults, family members have helped each other out, sometimes living together, sometimes giving loans and aid. My siblings and I are half-seriously talking about moving into a family compound together as we grow into our 60s.
It's hard to explain the phenomenon to people from small or atomized families; they are usually suspicious and skeptical.
There's a reason why the extended family is the default social grouping for humans!
Bart
Energy Bulletin
...Instead of being individual atoms we will need to learn to (again) become social molecules...
I think Ken Wilbur's concept of Holons is a good model.
The larger Holon is breaking down(the remotely connected electronic grouping of tv, media, pop culture, etc) and the lower level Holons, Families, communities will start to have meaning and energy returning to them. It will be tough. As you said, we will have to remember how to relate, compromise, and cope.
My two twenty something daughters live with us, One by choice, (she is into our "Family Plan" and Peak Oil Etc) and my other because her young husband dropped dead of previously unknown a heart ailment. They were married one year and had a 2 month old baby.
So now our house had two fifty something parents, A 23 year old who has been in on our "Transistion Planning" and 28 year old with a 3 year old daughter. Intergrating, and learning how to live as a family again, only with all adults(and my granddaughter who is Perfect by the way).
We are/have been going thru "Adjustments" living together that other families will be going thru.
We all have different lives now.
I look in their faces, and it gives me the energy/motivation to do my best in planning our course into the future.
No, no ... please no! The whole point of the Industrial Revolution (and everything since) was to give millions of people the capacity to escape their families, their in-laws, the circumstances of their birth, and narrow constrained lives. Please do not see a reversal of this as a progressive step for human society - and besides, would the houses have enough rooms for all the TVs and computers required? As they say, be careful what you wish for!
Meanwhile, small groups of like-minded baby boomers are in fact turning communal, as soon as they retire and have a sufficient superannuation package to acquire attractive assets, and live outside major cities and the burbs. The lucky ones, that is.
OTOH, New Orleans sheltered almost half the population in 20% of the housing stock after Katrina.
I would NOT expect the same result in typical American Suburbia, despite many more sq ft/person.
Alan
This is an unfortunate consequence of individualism becoming the driving theme in American society, the rise of $ as *the* determiner of personal worth/value/identity (capitalism), the end of neighborhoods/communities and the rise of competition (tied into previous items on this list) and simply (ha-ha) the complexity of the world we have built.
One of the strengths of Korean culture, and perhaps what might help Korea survive in the face of insurmountable odds given the almost total lack of natural resources, is the concept of Uri. (Oori, with the "i" a bit like the rolled "ll" or "rr" in Spanish.) This means "we", but really goes beyond that. It is a sense of national identity forged by their isolation in the centuries before 1900 and the many times they were invaded/occupied by the Japanese and Chinese, culminating in Korea's annexation by Japan in 1910. This concept exists at all levels of the culture.
This is further enhanced at the family level by Confucian teachings which focus on a rigid social structure based upon mutual respect but within very rigid boundaries. (The current incarnation is adulterated and the mutual respect aspect is largely absent, leaving a very rigid system that leads to domination by men and/or the more powerful, the older, etc.) The influence is so strong that a Korean has great difficulty - at any age - defying the wishes of their parents. That is, it is second nature for a Korean to submit to the will of their elders, so living together, while perhaps not joyful, is quite natural to them. To this day, most unmarried Koreans live with their parents until they marry and eldest sons often take in the aging parents. The idea of a retirement home/community basically doesn't exist here.
This is all a very long-winded way to say that Korean core families and the ability to submit to a pre-set hierarchy in the home, thus allowing multiple generations to live together, exists extensively in Korea and may be the essential characteristic that helps Korea adjust to a post-carbon world. It should be noted that the rise of Capitalism and the advent of the first real democratic conditions as of 1993 are diminishing the things mentioned above, but compared to a nation like the US, they are much better positioned to keep their social structure intact.(I suspect this is true of virtually the entire world when compared against the highly fractured state of things in the US.)
Now, if only Korea can get hold of some natural resources... Oh, yeah! NK has some....
May you live in interesting times!
Cheers
Leanan - A friend of mine who understands my sour estimation of our economic system asked me what to do to protect yourself going forward. I thought about that a long time and although I came up with some ideas like: getting out of fiat currency, invest in precious metals, if you can afford it invest in solar power for your home (not the stock-market) that sort of thing. But the more I thought about it there were holes in every scenario I came up with.
So what is the best way a currently middle class citizen can prepare for an economic collapse?
Learn to cook.
The one piece of advice my grandfather gave me, and a good one.
I've thought about this, too, and I think the best investment of your money is in acquiring skills and education. Not necessarily a degree, because if things get as bad as all that, nobody's going to care if you're an MD, an RN, or a veterinary technician. But there are skills that could be useful whether civilization crashes tomorrow or the happy motoring goes on forever. Nuclear engineering. Spinning. Firefighting. Organic farming. Carpentry. Sewing. Solar technology. Knowledge can never be taken away from you.
Other than that, there's the old standby: diversify. IMO, it's the only thing to do when the future is uncertain.
The only bit of nuclear engineering most people need to know is SCRAM. "SCRAM" as in which button to push to shut down an unattended reactor, and "SCRAM!!!" if nobody gets there to shut it down in time!