DrumBeat: May 28, 2008
Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 28, 2008 - 9:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
In Vermont, a Debate Swirls Around an Aging Nuclear Plant
BRATTLEBORO, Vt. — After part of a cooling tower collapsed last August at Vermont’s only nuclear power plant, the company that runs it blamed rotting wooden timbers that it had failed to inspect properly. The uproar that followed rekindled environmental groups’ hopes of shutting down the aging plant.The proposed closing, albeit a long shot, has gained some support this year among Vermont politicians. The discussion here is bringing into sharp relief a conflict between two objectives long held by environmental advocates: combating nuclear power and stopping global warming.
Grain prices grow, but so do risks
In corn's long journey to market, in which farmers grow the corn but an interlocking web of investors finances it, grain dealers are seeing the cost of doing business rise. And not everyone can manage. Market pressures have overwhelmed some Illinois grain elevators, with at least four closing in the last year. The problem is that grain dealers borrow money to hold and deliver corn. The usual practice is that they agree to buy grain in advance of the harvest, which enables farmers to lock in prices.
State releases analysis of TransCanada plan
The state has just released its full analysis and recommendation on awarding a state license and a $500 million subsidy to potential natural gas pipeline builder TransCanada Corp. Gov. Sarah Palin last week announced that her administration would recommend state legislators give TransCanada the license and subsidy. The administration released only an executive summary of its analysis of TransCanada's proposal.Today, it posted the full analysis - hundreds of pages of material, including numerous reports from the state's financial, technical and legal experts. The report is here
Sweden turning sewage into a gasoline substitute
GOTEBORG, Sweden: Taking a road trip? Remember to visit the toilet first. This city is among dozens of municipalities in Sweden with facilities that transform sewage waste into enough biogas to run thousands of cars and buses.Cars using biogas created a stir when they began to be rolled out on a large scale at the start of the decade. The tailpipe emissions are virtually odorless, the fuel is cheaper than gasoline and diesel, and the idea of recovering energy from toilet waste appealed to green-minded Swedes.
Azerbaijan: Newfound Wealth Hardens Baku's Bargaining Position On Karabakh
Touting Azerbaijan's recent economic success and "participation in international life," he boasts that "Armenia is not where Azerbaijan is today.""To reach that point, to where Azerbaijan is today, they have to do a lot -- they have to get the ticket to the train -- the train of legality, of peace, of good-neighborhood," Azimov says. "If they want to be good neighbors to Azerbaijan, they have to respect territorial integrity."
This, he says, is what Azerbaijan expects from the new president of Armenia; if not, Yerevan "will get something different than what Azerbaijan seeks."
The implication is that Armenia could find itself trying to match oil-rich Azerbaijan in another area: Baku is spending more than $2 billion on defense this year -- more than Armenia's entire national budget -- and is displaying much of its new military hardware for the country's Armed Forces Day on June 26.
Fuel protest: lorry drivers flex their muscles
Hundreds of lorry drivers converged on London yesterday to protest at rising fuel costs. Police closed a section of the A40 — one of the capital’s main arteries — so that it could be used as a massive lorry park.From there the drivers made their way to a rally at Marble Arch, where they told of jobs under threat, severe belt-tightening and family companies facing closure.
Blackouts hit thousands as generators fail
Hundreds of thousands of people were hit by electricity blackouts yesterday when seven power stations shut down. The unscheduled stoppages were regarded as an unprecedented sign of the fragility of Britain’s power infrastructure.Operations were cancelled, people were stuck in lifts, traffic lights failed and fire engines were sent out on false alarms. Householders were unable to use any appliances or make phonecalls as the blackouts hit areas including Cleveland, Cheshire, Lincolnshire and London.
Apple raises prospect of solar-powered iPhone
A patent application suggests that Apple is working out a way of powering portable devices with the sun
Russian billionaires fall out with BP
A simmering row between BP and the billionaire local shareholders in the company's Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, has burst into the open.Yesterday BP and the Russian shareholders were forced to acknowledge differences over strategy, with the Russian billionaires who own 50% of the company arguing that TNK-BP, Russia's third-largest oil producer, should be able to expand abroad even if that meant its coming into direct competition with BP itself.
Oil crisis triggers fevered scramble for the world's seabed
A fevered scramble for control of the world's seabed is going on - mostly in secret - at a little known office of the United Nations in New York.Bemused officials are watching with a mixture of awe and suspicion as Britain and France stake out legal claims to oil and mineral wealth as far as 350 nautical miles around each of their scattered islands across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. It takes chutzpah. Not to be left out, Australia and New Zealand are carving up the Antarctic seas.
Tidal power fuels Britain's National Grid
Tidal power has been harnessed to generate electricity for Britain’s National Grid for the first time, it has been announced. he move has been hailed as a milestone in the development of marine energy, which could provide up to a fifth of Britain’s electricity needs. It came when a single turbine on the Atlantic seabed off Orkney was connected to the National Grid on Monday morning. The area off the north of Scotland is regarded as potentially one of the best in the world for tidal power and has been described as the "Saudi Arabia of marine energy".
Last-ditch bid to avert Arctic free-for-all
Denmark will today launch an effort to calm the scramble for the Arctic, bringing together the five coastal nations competing for what are believed to be the largest unclaimed reserves of oil and gas left on the planet.The gathering in Greenland begins in the shadow of a new "oil shock" as soaring prices force governments to reassess their energy policies and heat up already feverish interest in who owns the seabed beneath the Arctic Ocean.
Shipyards to Focus on Energy Vessels
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin urged his government on Tuesday to give Russia a modern fleet of ships for its flourishing energy sector and named his close ally, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, to manage the multibillion-dollar project. "The principal direction is the creation of a complete line of ships and equipment to extract and transport oil and gas from offshore deposits," Putin told a meeting of top officials in his hometown of St. Petersburg.
RSPP Calls for Clear Rules on Biofuels
The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, or RSPP, said Tuesday that the country needed new legislation if it was going to become a leading producer of biofuels, as they are currently taxed the same as vodka.Excise duties on bioethanol make it unprofitable to produce in the country, a situation that leaves a government call for 30 new plants for the alternative fuel unrealizable, participants at a joint meeting of the lobby group's agriculture and energy committees said.
Rosneft and Gazprom Set to Carve Up Offshore
State-controlled energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom have agreed on splitting offshore deposits, limiting foreign and private access, an official said Tuesday.The government official, who asked not to be identified, said the two firms last year signed an agreement under which Rosneft will develop oil deposits on the country's northern shelf, while Gazprom will explore gas fields.
The Consequences of Rising Oil Prices for Producing Countries
At this point, it is essential to point out, especially for Arab readers who may think that the increase in prices benefits the countries of the region, that this is a wrong and shortsighted impression, and that producing countries bear an unavoidable responsibility to global consumers. Despite the massive financial rents earned by oil producing countries from these prices, prices have serious political and social consequences for the international community in the foreseeable future rather than in the long term.
Natco Technologies to be Used in the Manifa Arabian Heavy Crude Programme
Natco Group announced that it will provide equipment and technology to Foster Wheeler for the Saudi Aramco Manifa Arabian Heavy Crude Programme, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The development of the Manifa oil field, located in the Persian Gulf, includes construction and expansion of new processing infrastructure to handle an additional 900,000 bpd of Arabian heavy crude. The project is planned for a 2011 completion.Natco will supply the world's fifth-largest crude oil field with advanced dehydration & desalting technology including design and fabrication of six trains treating a total of 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). Each train will be comprised of one TriVolt dehydrator and two TriVolt desalter units for a total of 18 vessels.
Russia worried as oil production slides
Russia's government has proposed urgent measures to halt a slide in oil production, which threatens to undermine the country's petroleum-fuelled economic boom."All the proposals have been accepted and will be submitted to parliament at the end of this week," Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov told journalists after the Presidium, a group of the most powerful ministers created by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, met to discuss the crisis on Monday.
June 1: Russian Railways takes over management of Armenian Railways; many Armenian state-owned enterprises have been handed over to Russia, including country's whole energy sector; President Serzh Sargsyan made special speech in February, when still prime minister, to persuade cabinet to accept this latest move (Armenian news agency Arminfo)
Food price crisis to get worse
Rome - High food prices are here to stay for the foreseeable future, potentially forcing millions more people into hunger, two reports from the United Nations and the OECD showed on Thursday.A surge in commodity prices in the last year was not a blip and prices will remain at or above current levels for at least the next decade as some of the main underpinning factors - demand for a richer diet, the rise of biofuels and high oil prices - will remain, one of the reports said.
Low lakes prompt Contact to fire up mothballed generator
Low hydro lakes and rising winter power demand have pushed Contact Energy to fire up one of its mothballed generators at the New Plymouth (N.Z.) power station.The power station was closed in December last year after asbestos was found in areas where it was not thought to have been.
Queensland Gas Co looks at power play in NSW market
QUEENSLAND Gas Co has taken the initiative in a long-planned scheme to link its Surat Basin coal seam gas fields in Queensland directly to the New South Wales market.QGC yesterday announced that it and two joint venture partners were examining the feasibility of a 400-600 megawatt power station in the Hunter Valley – a station that would underwrite the cost of a pipeline from QGC's Surat Basin coal seam methane fields to Newcastle.
Indonesia to withdraw from OPEC
Indonesia will withdraw from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at the end of the year, the country's energy minister told foreign journalists Wednesday.
Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the move follows declining oil production levels in Indonesia that have left the country a net importer of oil.
Foreign Countries Cutting Fuel Subsidies Will Decrease Oil Demand
Indonesia has decided to decrease their fuel subsidies; thus raising the price of gasoline for consumers at the pump. The new price will rise 28.7% to a price of 65 US cents per liter or $2.46 per gallon. India also announced an increase in gasoline prices to $2.66 per gallon, an increase of about 7%. Taiwan is another country that is ending a freeze on gasoline prices.
These price increases are important to creating more elasticity in the demand for oil. If governments fix the price of gasoline at below market levels, when demand increases there and supply remains constant, the price can only go up. In economic terms, this creates a demand curve that is almost vertical. Small increases in demand with fixed supply can create huge price increases. By passing through the increased price to consumers, demand will be reduced and price will find a new equilibrium point at a lower price point. Could this create a short term top in the price of oil?
Has Russian Oil Output Peaked?
As the world's second-largest oil exporter, Russia joins a growing number of top oil suppliers wrestling with how to address declining or peaking production. Like Venezuela and Mexico, Russia is heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for more than two-thirds of government revenue and 30 percent of the country's gross domestic product. Now, Moscow is trying to remedy a situation caused in part by outdated technology, heavy taxation of oil profits, and lack of investment in oil infrastructure.
Oilsands: Imperial Oil loses bid to get Kearl water permit reinstated
Imperial Oil Ltd.'s attempts to get a water licence reinstated for its $8-billion Kearl oilsands project hit a snag Wednesday when a federal judge dismissed the company's request.
In a decision filed in Ottawa, Federal Court Judge Douglas Campbell upheld an earlier decision to pull the water licence for the proposed development.
The permit was revoked earlier this year after another court ruled the environmental assessment on the project was incomplete.
South Africa's Q1 mine output slumps on power supply cuts
South Africa's Chamber of Mines believes that new figures showing adramatic fall in mine production will strengthen its hand in the struggle with the government for more electricity. At the same time, one of the world's leading gold miners admits this could take years.
Statistics SA, an independent research group, said first-quarter mining output slumped 22.1% compared with the final quarter of last year -- the sharpest fall for 40 years.
One question for Moe_gamble, or for anybody else with interest in trading:
What's your assessment of the short-term outlook for the oil price? Thanks!
After the massive runup in the last two weeks there just has to be a correction. Whether it stays down depends IMO on how late that long list of 2008 megaprojects actually turn out to be.
"there just has to be a correction."
Every week's inventory number will show that zero
extra oil is coming to market regardless of the price.
How can the price drop?
Only with the dollar getting stonger.
If oil falls back to $100, beer will double in price.
Deffeyes-
"How big is the problem? Multiplying production (barrels per year) times the oil price (dollars per barrel) gives a total cost in dollars per year. It's an enormous number; tens of trillions of dollars per year. To put a scale on it, the three thin curves on the graph show the oil cost in contrast to the total world domestic product; the annual value the goods and services added up for all the world's countries. The three curves show the oil cost at one percent, two and a half percent, and five percent of the total world economic output. At $130 this morning, we are at six and a half percent.
If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy.
Oil production obviously cannot consume 100 percent of the world's income. My intuitive, uninformed guess is that it cannot go above 15 percent. If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy."
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html
I agree. When Gold and Silver start bubbling up, old mines are re-opened. People take their hairloom jewelry and silverware and sell it in mass and the supply increases. When the housing bubble rocketed up, there was massive overbuilding. Now with the huge run-up in oil, there are no substitutes and declining supply. During the great whale oil price spike in the mid-1800s, at least there were alternatives.
But what's this?
I love looking at sites that are so correct in their field.
But refuse to believe in civilization ending scenarios
coming from outside their expertise:
"
Oil has gone from $55 a barrel on up to $132 a barrel. Inflation could account for about $30 of that increase. I wouldn't blame this mess on the oil companies, this has all of the ear marks of a speculative corner of the oil market by parties unknown.
The commodities markets are going to have to limit the number of contracts written and only accept liquidation orders like they did with the Hunts. It's kind of like sticking a broom handle into the spokes of a moving bicycle. It will be quick and brutal. Hold on to your SUV and your hat, another bubble is about to pop."
http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/
And as this very same site picks up on who really owns the markets.
Let me post this again:
"The commodities markets are going to have to limit the number of contracts written and only accept liquidation orders like they did with the Hunts."
Inflation is responsible for an increase in the price of oil or is it that the price of oil is responsible for an increase in inflation?
Yeah, well that's the question, isn't it?
In my opinion, it's the price of oil that is primarily responsible for the price inflation we're seeing, but there certainly has been a pile-up of dollars in the world over the past few years, which means it's probably both.
Or how about inflation is the result of an increase in the money supply?
As an example:
http://www.futurecasts.com/Understanding%20Inflation.html
Hi mcgo, here is a day later from denninger
"Now with the huge run-up in oil, there are no substitutes and declining supply."
the electricity that runs your computer can run your car. some can use waste vegetable oil. we can use oil most efficiently. those are some substitute.
we still have half our oil left.
"we still have half our oil left."
"Low-hanging fruit" that just bubbled out of the ground.
EROEI is exploding now.
"...the electricity that runs your computer" is taxing the grid.
Tell me why the UK's collapsed yesterday.
This was the kind of outage that happens sometimes, and appears coincidental.
Blackouts from shortages and retired equipment together with short supplies of natural gas is a pleasure that is not here as yet, but it is coming.
"it cannot go above 15 percent [of the world GDP]"
- two comments:
(1) as the rate of oil extraction decreases the same % of GDP will allow a higher price per barrel. (Of course, that's assuming the same GDP, which won't hold, so it's more complicated than that.)
(2) when the EROI decreases to 5:1, for example, then 20% of the economic activity will be in energy extraction. Etc.
Either way, the real consequence is that the economy will fundamentally change, which perhaps is what Deffeyes means by "smoldering ruins".
VTP - Of course Deffeyes means the economy is going to fundamentally change...IT'S GOING TO COLLAPSE. How in the hell can you read some quasi-cornucopian crap into a perfectly straight forward statement? He is saying that energy costs are going to destroy the world's economy.
And, as I have looked at his graph time and again, I am scared shitless because the change looks like it is going to be a cliff not some nice time-line that gives people and government years to adjust.
Todd
"...because the change looks like it is going to be a cliff..."
Yes Deffeyes' recently posted graph is beautiful in its simplicity. Clean, clear and crisp. And I share the same sentiment that you have. The message told in that one plot is very sobering.
-best,
Wolf in YVR BC
"it cannot go above 15 percent [of the world GDP]"
You're probably right. Perhaps it can spike for a bit if people reach into their capital.
The world capital markets are worth about $118 trillion dollars, and world real estate was once worth 75 trillion (ok, it's less now). World GDP is about $50 trillion. [I wondered if we could sustain a larger spike in prices by borrowing against our capital, but this doesn't seem likely].
Imagine that we produce 26 billion barrels of oil in 2013 (about 70 million per day), and that prices have reached $500/barrel. That's $13 trillion, 26% of GDP. It's hard to imagine prices going higher than that. Even borrowing against capital (selling our companies and real estate to Saudi Arabia) won't allow much more. But this is in today's dollars. It isn't too hard to imagine 20% inflation, or even 1000% inflation, in which case nominal prices go through the roof. If inflation averages 15% for 5 years, for example, we might have $1000 oil by 2013.
But I expect that even 15% of GDP going to oil will kill the economy [remember, all other forms of energy and food aren't included in this]. $250 oil is probably a real ceiling on the price.
Figures for world valuation: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/derivatives-new-ticking-time-bomb/...
the falacy is the statement that at $300 a barrel the world economy goes into decline lies in the time frame and the amount of oil being produced. It is possible, for example, that in 7 years price levels will be 50% higher than today and the amount of oil being produced will be 15% less than today. In that event, oil could be $500 per barrel and would "only" consume somewhere around 10% of global GDP.
If you keep going out in time and assume lower production each year in a post-peak-oil world when we are transitioning to an electric economy it is perfectly reasonable to see $1000 oil in, say, 10 - 15 years. We might then be using only 65% of today's oil and price levels could be double or more what they are today.
Your argument simply assumes that there is little real rise in the price of oil at all, and that most of it is a rise in nominal terms in a devalued currency.
All the analysis that is done here indicates that real shortages will mean that prices will need to be much higher in real terms to create the demand destruction needed for supply and demand to balance.
The scenario you draw would actually imply weak cost pressures on demand, so there seems no particular reason why it should be so restrained.
I have looked at the argument that if the price of oil goes to $300/barrel, the world economy stops. One serious problem I find with it is that Deffeyes uses the same World Domestic Product (WDP), the one for 2007, for all years in comparing with world oil production (WOPR) times Oil Price (OP). The WDP will increase in years ahead, so when oil is $300 a barrel, the percent of WDP that will be will probably be considerably less than 15%. Further, I would like some justification as to why the dollar value of WOPR cannot exceed 15% of WDP. His analysis does give some sense of warning, however, that perhaps in the decade ahead our lifestyles will change substantially. I would like to see this analysis cleaned up so we can see what is going to happen in the future.
I don't think it is going down. Depletion rates are often left out of the equation when discussing price. Production at Cantrell continues to crash, just like the North Sea crashed. Matt Simmons believes that the big Middle Eastern fields will very soon crash like the North Sea. When interviewed, he sounded extremely confident about this, like it was a near certainty.
My point, which I stand by, is that 20% in two weeks is not compatible with the actual 2-4%/year increase in shortfall, especially as demand destruction seems to finally be biting in the OECD.
Sure the price will be back up soon, but we'll get a few weeks before the next new record.
When one barrel of Pepsi costs significantly more than one barrel of oil, then we can talk about unjustified 'massive price runups'. In the meantime, I expect violent upsurges in price.
People are only starting to grasp the fact that oil is finite. They haven't really begun to realize that net exports will disappear (forever) within the next 20-odd years. As these things become understood, it will dawn on people that oil is currently ridiculously under-priced.
___ cents a cup.
Hi Puntaldia. I think we're seeing a standard correction going into a trading range for roughly a month to six weeks. Could be shorter, going into a price rise, depending on when China and India finally ennable their oil companies to hit the market.
We used to see standard corrections of roughly 10%, with another dollar or two in the panic selling at the bottom, but now corrections are smaller. That's because of commodity index fund buying--they have essentially replaced some of the more volatile spec buying and selling, and their demand is much more stable.
For an idea of what a standard correction and trading range should look like, look at a chart of oil prices from March 17 into the beginning of April.
Most bloggers are screaming for a big correction to $100-$110. I don't think there's any way. Iraq and Saudi Arabia brought on extra production in May (though most of Saudi's extra supply looks like it's heavy oil that no one wants), but that will basically only cover the shortfall from the UK and Nigeria strikes. We still have an ongoing decline in production in Mexico, Russia, Australia, etc. And most important, we have a great deal of pent-up demand now in China and India, where Sinopec announced there would be shortages of diesel at the time of the Olympics unless the Chinese gov't upped their subsidies so the oil companies could afford to hit the markets, and where India is negotiating an increased subsidy with its oil companies, because their gas stations are running dry of diesel.
It's a diesel shortage that is driving the price of oil, and Merrill Lynch doesn't see a solution to the problem until at least late 2009 to 2010, when enough refineries should be updated to process heavy crude. I agree with their assessment.
So, the price could settle into a really long trading range into the fall, and then go up as producers build up winter supplies, like last year. Or the price could trade in a range for a short time, go up with buying from China and India, and then hit another normal-sized correction and trading range in August/late summer for the let-up in seasonal demand, before a likely late-year price rise.
That's my view, anyway.
Thanks, Moe, for your quick and thorough reply! In fact, I had wondered if your absence here (or, more precisely, your reduced presence) over the last days had meant that you lost interest ... happy to see that this is not the case!
You know, I've been really taken aback by the witch hunt against speculators. It's been very disheartening to watch people look for someone to blame, rather than deal with the real problem.
This is an area where those of us who have acclimated our world view to peak oil and resource depletion just have trouble with. We seem to forget just how vested the self identity of most people (especially in North America) is in the highly consumptive "lifestyle."
Sorry for that. The witch hunt certainly exists and gains momentum, but I don't have the impression that TOD and the contents/comments here give particular credibility to "it's all the speculators" claims.
Anyway, I personally really appreciate reading your comments giving the trader's point of view. Please continue, IMHO it's both interesting and useful ...
Puntaldia - I am not trying to be a smart ass. But, Boone Pickens earlier this year said that he has given up trying to pick short-term movements in the energy markets and will stick to identifying long-term investment opportunities. He has traded more energy than any single human on earth, and started when the crude contract was first available around 1984. So, if you figure out how to do it, he might have an opening on his staff.
PS - I responded to Moe re: speculators upthread (just my opinion).
The Boone Pickens staff position should clearly go to Moe_gamble! As far as I can tell, he has an incredible track record with his trading tips here.
I think jbunt makes a good point. (Though I did get a chunk of Boone Picken's money from those bad shorts he put on earlier this year--hardy har har.) It's harder to trade short-term when so much of the price depends on the timing of decisions by the gov'ts of China and India.
Also, with the commodity index funds taking over a bigger share of the long portion of the market, there is less volatility to exploit (or get killed by).
So, except when something major develops, I'm tending to increase the portion of my energy investments that are buy and hold. Add on dips. And remember, no matter how frantic the market looks, there will always be a dip. It will always come just after the psychological pressure to buy gets nearly unbearable.
Moe definitely adds value but he is human too! I seem to remember his previous call was to short or get out of oil at around $110-115. Not the best call in retrospect I do think he is correct on his current calls and also don't think we will see oil break below $110. As for Pickens he has also been a good prognosticator on the oil & gas markets. I would like to buy a piece of Mesa Energy L.P.(windmills) but it appears to be a private entity at this time. If anyone knows how to buy in please let us know.
None of my business, but I recall him saying it wasn't the absolute best time to get in, which is a lot different from saying get out or short it-I don't recall Moe ever calling on the tribe to short oil.
I have never posted any advice here ever for people to short oil. Never. Not once. I don't even do it myself. I said to get out of the market on 3/13 if the price finished up for the day. Anyone who followed my advice sold at around $110, at the high for that run. The price crashed roughly $6 two days later, and continued falling the next two days, for about a 10% correction. On the morning of 3/20, I said I was buying back in. At the end of that trading day, I posted here that we had gotten a low-risk, high reward buy signal. If you had bought on my recommendation at that time, and sold when I told to sell on 4/25, you would have ridden a $17 price rise, having caught it at the bottom.
I then said to sell on 4/25, into the rise in price due to buying because of the UK and Nigeria strikes. You could also have caught the top on that day, before four days of steady price falls. I then said I was starting to buy back in at the low on 4/30. But I said that was something of a gamble, because I didn't really have a proper buy signal. If you had bought with me on that day, you would have been in the market for a $20 price rise. I got busy with poker tournaments at that time, and advised people to work with the price signals in the books I had recommended.
Part of the reason I stopped posting tips was precisely because I was afraid people would catch one tip and then miss seeing the next one, which is what seems to have happened with you, Kansas.
For anyone who wants to trade, read jbunt's comment first about the difficulty of trading these markets short-term. (He points out that even Boone Pickens is dropping out of short-term trading.)
But then take a look at the price signal chapters in Timing Techniques for Commodity Futures Markets by Colin Alexander. (Today gave a buy signal, but you shouldn't buy unless you know the sell signals and how to set stops.)
Also before trading see Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith, which does a good job on bet-sizing and other kinds of trading systems, and also does a good job of explaining where your edge comes from.
Hey Moe this is the comment on 5/1 I recalled and you're right it doesn't say short the market it does imply that you are out waiting a clear point for re-entry (I assume that means go long again?). You then were occupied with poker or other and didn't post again until May 26th. Obviously a lot happened in the market during that spell.
Again I appreciate your market perspective but am not short termed focused in my investment strategy execution so don't worry about leaving me hanging I am not trading your point of view. I have been (+50% portfolio) long these markets for +6 years and the only money I have taken off the table has been dividends or buyouts in the energy sector. I probably should have been more aggressive in taking some profits at times but on balance am pretty satisfied. So I guess I'm saying I have been less than perfect in my execution my guess that means I'm human. Good to see you posting again. Happy Hunting!