DrumBeat: July 15, 2008
Posted by Leanan on July 15, 2008 - 8:16am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Where Americans will (and won't) cut back
Concerns about inflation, U.S. dependence on oil and rising unemployment spanned all income groups and age brackets, according to Jon Berry, vice president of GfK Roper Consulting.Of course, some are harder hit than others. Because of the heavy dependence on driving, less affluent consumers living in rural areas and parents with children under the age of 18 living at home were among the most impacted from high gas prices, the report said.
What If the Pain Isn’t Temporary?
Most of the people I know are convinced that the current high fuel and food prices are temporary. “Surely the bubble will burst soon,” they say. “It won’t be long before we can resume living the way we were before,” they proclaim. “A new president will fix things,” they believe. They continue spending and living as they have before, making no changes, certain that things will get back to the way they were.
American Airlines to cut 200 pilot jobs
American Airlines Inc. said Tuesday it will cut 200 pilot jobs as part of its efforts to reduce expenses in the face of sharply rising fuel costs.
Biggest oil price drop in 17 years
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices plummeted by the second-largest margin on record Tuesday as investors feared a further decline in U.S. demand after hearing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.Light, sweet crude fell $6.44 to settle at $138.74 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The drop in oil was the largest single-day slide in dollar terms since Jan. 17, 1991, when oil fell by $10.56. On that day, President George H.W. Bush withdrew oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ahead of the first Gulf War.
But in 1991, oil was trading at just $32 a barrel, so the more than $10 slide in dollar terms represented a record 33% drop. Oil fell 4.4% Tuesday, which does not even crack the top 100 price declines in percentage terms.
Pricey gas: Fewer cops, more potholes
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In what seems to be a perverse reaction to high gas prices, some cities are cutting back on public transit - at a time when their citizens need it most.Due to skyrocketing fuel costs local governments are being forced to trim all sorts of services - not only busses - but police departments and road repair crews too.
A Shortage at the Pump: Not of Gas, but of 4s
If one is the loneliest number, then four is the hottest — at least when it comes to gasoline.With regular gas in New York City at a near-record $4.40 a gallon, station managers are rummaging through their storage closets in search of extra 4s to display on their pumps. Many are coming up short.
"The Saudis did their part, raising their output precisely to the levels they promised," said Platts Global Director of Oil John Kingston. "It isn't clear whether this additional Saudi crude is going to go into consumption or inventory, but either way, it should find a home."
Oil firms accused of price fixing in Russian aviation fuel market
MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) - The Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service launched proceedings Tuesday against Russia's five largest oil companies over high prices for aviation and diesel fuel.LUKoil, Gazprom Neft, TNK-BP Holding, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz are suspected of price fixing, in violation of the law on the protection of competitiveness.
Britons shine a light on energy use at home
HOVE, England: A retired customer service representative for the local power company, Jeffrey Marchant, admits to a lifelong obsession with household energy, born originally of thrift rather than green environmental consciousness."I'm like one of those fellows who stands at the station spotting trains, only what I do is electricity," he says.
Country, the city version: Farms in the sky gain new interest
What if "eating local" in Shanghai or New York meant getting your fresh produce from five blocks away? And what if skyscrapers grew off the grid, as verdant, self-sustaining towers where city slickers cultivated their own food?Dr. Dickson Despommier, a professor of public health at Columbia University, hopes to make these zucchini-in-the-sky visions a reality. Despommier's pet project is the "vertical farm," a concept he created in 1999 with graduate students in his class on medical ecology, the study of how the environment and human health interact.
U.S. electric utility has 12-year plan to shape debate on carbon emissions
Exelon, the largest U.S. operator of nuclear power plants, said Tuesday that by 2020 it would cut its greenhouse gas emissions by an amount larger than its total emissions in 2008, in a bid to shape the debate on carbon dioxide rules and to get a jump on compliance.
Colleges should plan - and teach - for an oil-scarce world
Robert K. Kaufmann, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University, recently gave a seminar for journalists on the economics of the oil market. As oil goes up, the value of the dollar against the euro goes down; other energy sources, meanwhile, become expensive as they substitute for more-expensive oil. Today's oil prices may be inflated, he said, but they will not collapse as they did in the 1980s. Because demand is going up worldwide, uses for oil have concentrated in transportation and manufacturing (where alternatives to oil are difficult to come by), and oil fields outside of OPEC are in a production decline, what we are experiencing now is very likely a permanent trend.Mr. Kaufmann gave no date for a world production peak, offering various possibilities between 2014 and 2032. (A report by the U.S. government released last year said that oil production will probably peak sometime before 2040, but it was vague.) According to his analysis, within 10 years of the peak, alternative fuels would have to rise to the equivalent of 10 million barrels a day, or the current production of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer.
Most campuses plan to be up and running long after 2040. Consider the pain campuses are feeling now and how much worse it could be. Some colleges — like state colleges in Oklahoma — are already raising tuition to cover energy costs.
Eight Reasons to Release Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
A Department of Energy analysis determined that opening the OCS to offshore drilling “would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.”A much faster, more effective action to reduce oil prices would to sell a half million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to increase supply, reduce prices, and burst the “speculative bubble” that leads speculators to buy oil futures based on the assumption that supply will remain fixed and prices will escalate.
Ukraine hopes for access to Russian pipelines
KIEV (Reuters) - Kiev hopes a deal to allow Russia to join the World Trade Organisation will enable Ukraine to secure direct access to Russian pipelines carrying gas from Central Asia, a senior official said on Tuesday.
Libya to Cut Oil Production Because of Pipeline Work
(Bloomberg) -- Libya will reduce crude oil production this week by 100,000 barrels a day, or 5.7 percent, because of maintenance work on a pipeline, the North African nation's top oil official Shokri Ghanem said.
Shell lifts force majeure on Nigeria Bonny Light
LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell on Tuesday lifted a force majeure on Nigerian Bonny Light crude."As of 6 pm (1700 GMT) Nigerian time today, we lifted the force majeure on Bonny Light exports," a Shell spokesman in the Hague said.
UK: Farming industry reeling as key input costs double
Diesel oil, which the agricultural industry is heavily dependent on, has risen from approximately 40p to 70p per litre in the last 12-15 months, while compound feed prices have increased from approximately £140 to £220 per tonne in the same period. In line with rising oil and energy prices, Nitrogen fertiliser costs, previously £130 to £150 per tonne in 2006/7, will have hit £350 per tonne and above this summer.
ANALYSIS-Chile's government battered by protests, polls
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Students and teachers clash with riot police in clouds of tear gas, a minister is sacked by Congress over a funds scandal and soaring inflation stirs anger -- President Michelle Bachelet's government is in trouble.
New Zealand Inflation Accelerates to 18-Year-High
(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 18 years in the second quarter, fanned by fuel and food costs, adding to signs the economy is facing stagflation as it slips into recession.
Chrysler aims to have electric cars in three to five years
DETROIT (Reuters) - Chrysler LLC is planning to launch all-electric vehicles in the next three to five years, the latest automaker to join the race to produce cars with fuel-saving technologies.
Bush touts mortgage plans, offshore drilling
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Under the backdrop of a deteriorating economic picture, President Bush said Tuesday he is taking action to help people with falling home prices and high gas prices.Bush highlighted plans to stabilize the mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and lift the ban on offshore oil drilling as two steps his administration is taking to address some of the nation's economic ills.
'It's been a difficult time for American families," Bush said at a press conference. "We must ensure we can continue providing credit during this time of stress."
Global demand blamed for rising oil prices
Oil prices have been spiralling due to the “inexorable” rise in global demand rather than because of speculators, British MPs were told today.At a hearing into regulation of the oil markets, a number of industry experts told the Treasury Select Committee in England that never-ending political crises were also more likely to have an effect on soaring costs.
Malaysia's Petronas posts record profit
Malaysia's national oil company, Petronas, reported a record annual profit Tuesday and said it is assessing the viability of a proposed gas project in Iran following the pullout of French energy giant Total SA.
Iraq elections law delayed over Kirkuk dispute
BAGHDAD - Iraq's parliament failed to approve a draft provincial elections law on Tuesday because of disagreement over what to do about voting in the disputed oil city of Kirkuk, lawmakers said.
Exxon moves ahead with disputed Alaskan gas field
Exxon Mobil Corp. has hired contractors with plans to begin work on an oil and gas field the state of Alaska wants to take back.
Fiji: Boy’s death concerns Qarase
OUSTED Prime Minister, Laisenia Qarase, has expressed concern about the electricity supply problem at Taveuni Hospital which led to the death of a 14-year-old boy last weekend.Qarase questioned whether the problem was mechanical or was it due to non-acceptance of the Government LPO’s by fuel suppliers.
'The best thing that could happen to the country is if no oil is found'
Luis Prazeres was the first native-born airline captain in São Tomé and Príncipe, and the country's first minister of natural resources. He knew a lot about flying and nothing about oil. But neither did anyone else in the tiny African island nation, which had just been told it was on the verge of a petroleum boom."There were all these foreign companies telling us that we had huge oil reserves, and bringing us agreements to sign," said Prazeres, who took up his minister's post in 1999. "Nobody here understood how complex it was."
Fears for British Economy as Inflation Soars to 11-year High
FEARS for the British economy mounted today as surging food and and petrol prices pushed inflation to a 11-year high of 3.8 per cent.Families who are feeling the squeeze were dealt another blow as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) jumped this month from 3.2 per cent in May.
The highest increase in more than a decade was worse even than the 3.6 per cent expected by City economists and is almost double the Bank of England's 2 per cent target.
Gas at $39.26 a gallon not funny
MORRISON — At a time when reaching for the pump has become a royal pain in the gas for every motorist, nobody has a sorer wallet than John Force.When his Ford Mustang gets thirsty for fuel, Force is paying $39.26. Not to fill the tank. Per gallon.
But here's the real bummer. Force races dragsters for a living. He might own the heaviest lead foot in America.
On his work commute, when the light turns from red to green, Force can burn 10 gallons in 4.2 seconds. Quicker than a guy can reach for his credit card, nearly 400 bucks are gone in a puff of exhaust smoke.
Architecture: Bulgarian eco town 'the biggest mistake of Norman Foster's career', say protesters
On Karadere beach, in north-east Bulgaria, a smattering of families have set up camp for the summer, as they have done for years. But this year the happy-go-lucky mood has been punctured by fears that the small corner of paradise is under imminent threat by Bulgaria's first carbon-neutral resort.
Shell boosts stake in Iogen cellulosic ethanol
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Oil major Royal Dutch Shell Plc said on Tuesday it will make a "significant investment" in Canadian cellulosic ethanol maker Iogen Corp, increasing its stake in the company to 50 percent from 26.3 percent.Shell also said it would consider investing in a full-scale commercial plant for the Iogen technology, which makes ethanol from wheat straw. It did not disclose how much it will invest in the privately held company.
Lester Brown: Higher food prices are here to stay
In a misguided attempt to reduce its oil insecurity, the US is creating global food insecurity on a scale not seen before. Even if the entire US grain harvest were converted into fuel for cars, it would still only supply 18% of the US's automotive fuel needs at most. At the individual level, the grain required to fill a SUV's 25-gallon tank with ethanol would feed one person for an entire year.Ethanol, which is projected to consume over one-fourth of the US grain crop in 2008, will supply scarcely 5% of the US's automotive fuel needs. But this demand for grain is the proverbial straw breaking the camel's back.
It's not a choice between food and fuel — we'll need more of both
The real threat is to remain caught up in the blame game while actually buying into the misguided notion that farmers are forced to choose between delivering food or fuel. Much more of both will be needed. The critical choices have to do with how we can provide more food and energy while using fewer resources. And in the spirit of the current campaign season, part of the answer can be framed by modifying a sage piece of political counsel: It's the yield, stupid.
Asphalt deficit gives Colorado DOT a bumpy ride
A shortage of liquid asphalt is occurring, in part, because oil refiners are concentrating on producing more profitable finished products from crude oil, such as diesel fuel, said Tom Peterson, executive director of the Colorado Asphalt Pavement Association.Refiners also are processing more light crude petroleum, which produces less asphalt than heavy crude, Peterson said.
Gas prices are taking a toll on state road funding
OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — High gasoline prices that are taking their toll on motorists could soon begin hampering the agency in charge of maintaining Oklahoma’s roadways.State Transportation Director Gary Ridley expressed concern Monday a federal trust fund fed by sales of gasoline and diesel fuel could have an $8 billion shortfall that would trickle down to Oklahoma.
Sen. Jim Inhofe, the author of the federal legislation, has said the impact on Oklahoma next year could be a $172 million shortage.
BENNINGTON, VT — The new fiscal year is only in its early days but several Bennington County towns are already looking ahead with caution after finishing the last fiscal year with greater-than-expected spending for gas, heating oil and road salt.
Demand growing bigger for smaller used cars
As gas has rocketed from less than $3 a gallon in January to more than $4 now, demand for fuel-efficient small cars has climbed as dramatically as the value of high-priced trucks and SUVs have fallen."There's a shortage of [small] cars all across the spectrum," said Mark Scott, a spokesman for AutoTrader.com, a national online automotive marketplace which has about 4 million vehicles listed on its site at any given time.
Mr. Scott said that listings for large vehicles like trucks and SUVs have grown by 20 percent in recent months on the company's Web site as more consumers try to get out of their large vehicles.
Gas crisis kindling new interest in bicycles
SALEM, N.H. — After years of stagnant national sales, the gas crisis may be pumping some new life and changes into the bicycle industry."We're seeing more and more people buying bicycles for doing errands," said John Maurice, bicycle manager for Buchika's on South Broadway in Salem, N.H. "The bike industry says 60 percent of all car trips are for 2 miles or less. Because of that figure, people are buying bikes to go to the library or grocery store. If it's two to three miles, people are interested."
Cement shortage spurs black market
DUBAI — A black market for cement, where prices hover upto 60 per cent above the price ceiling fixed by the government, is thriving in the UAE on the back of an acute supply shortfall and rampant hoarding activities....While most cement factories in the UAE abide by the official price cap, some leading building materials traders take undue advantage of the supply shortfall to charge up to Dh29 per 50-kilo bag for Ordinary Portland Cement through mostly under-the-table transactions for which no proper cash bills are issued. However, some industry sources said certain cement suppliers are demanding more than Dh400 per tonne as a result of a steep rise in clinker, diesel and manufacturing costs.
Why OPEC will not increase crude oil supplies
If oil consuming nations think that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would start pumping crude oil into the market to cushion the effect of the spiral cost of the product at the international market then they better have a rethink.The organisation is not willing to concede to pressure from the consuming nations for increased supply. It has consistently maintained that it is not convinced the crude supply to the market is not sufficient for the consuming market.
Mauritius: Country Proposes Orgn., Fund for Non-Oil Producing Countries
It is high time that non petroleum producing countries created their own organization and an oil fund with the objective countering effects of soaring oil prices on their development endeavors, ambassador of Mauritius to Ethiopia proposed on Thursday.
How much does your financial adviser really know about oil? Does he know, for example, that Mexico, one of the top oil exporting countries in the world and a key source of oil for the United States, could see its net oil exports hit zero in late 2010?That’s the forecast of Jeffrey Brown, the Texas-based petroleum geologist who is one of a small group of unaffiliated energy analysts whose collective research serves as a warning to financial markets to beware unexpectedly sharp falloffs in the amount of crude available to the U.S., China and other giant oil-importing nations. Brown’s work highlights in part how rising domestic oil consumption in big oil-exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Mexico can cause those countries’ oil exports to fall faster than would be indicated from a straight analysis of production rates.
To hear Bush touting Western oil shale as the answer to $4 per gallon gasoline, as he did again yesterday in the Rose Garden, you would think it was 1908 . . . or 1920 . . . or 1945 . . . or 1974. Every couple of decades over the past century, the immense reserves of the oily rock under Colorado and Utah reemerge as the great hope for our energy future.Bush and his fellow oil shale boosters claim that if only Western communities would stand aside, energy companies could begin extracting more than 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil from domestic shale deposits. If only the federal government immediately offered even more public lands for development, the technology to extract oil from rock would suddenly ripen, oil supplies would rise and gas prices would fall.
If only.
Towns look at 4-day workweek to save
Gas pangs at the pumps, coupled with Utah's move to put most of its state workers on a four-day week, are driving more Connecticut cities and towns to reconsider whether a similar schedule makes sense for them.
Plans Unveiled For Four Billion Dollar Coal To Liquid Fuel Plant
A one year study shows the Big Shoal site in Pikeville is the best spot, and now state and federal officials are jumping on board, saying Monday we need to build this to slash gas prices, and help the Appalachian economy.Pike County and state leaders say billions of tons of coal leaves the region.
“We want that to change,” says Wayne T. Rutherford, Pike County Judge-Executive.
Instead, the plan is to keep it in eastern Kentucky, and go to Pike County and turn into liquid fuel.
America can restore its world-class economic strength, U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) said yesterday, if it directs its technological and entrepreneurial drive to producing clean energy.“We need a massive new Manhattan Project for alternative energy,” Kerry said in an hour-long interview with Boston Herald editors and reporters.
Bush has Congress over a barrel
WASHINGTON — By lifting a long-standing White House ban on new oil and gas drilling off the nation's coastlines Monday President Bush pressured Congress to take a similar step, stoking the battle over how the U.S. should respond to high gasoline prices.
The Polar ice cap may be melting, but the U.S. economy is frozen, starting right here in my small town. Gradually rising levels of dismay at the gas pump and in the supermarket gave way to paralytic shock last week when "lock-in" notices from the local fuel company arrived. This year's advance price for home heating oil is nearly twice what people paid last year. A collective gasp of disbelief from my tough, resourceful Maine neighbors echoed across the meadows and up the rocky coast. Many claimed they would never sign the contract. "What's your alternative?" I asked a friend."I don't have one," he muttered.
Power cuts turning Pakistanis ‘green’
ISLAMABAD // Homeowners in electricity-starved Pakistan are turning to wind and solar power in a bid to overcome a crippling power shortage that is causing deep dissatisfaction with the country’s civilian government.
The rupee is in a tailspin, the Karachi Stock Exchange is in a steady decline and food and fuel prices are soaring, contributing to power shortages, rising unemployment and an unprecedented trade deficit. By any measure, the Pakistani economy is in deep trouble.Violence by militants in the country’s northwest may have captured the headlines, but some economists are now predicting fiscal instability will cause more turmoil here than the pro-Taliban extremists.
Saudi says 12.5 mbpd oil capacity sustainable
DUBAI (Reuters) - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will be able to pump at 12.5 million barrels per day for as long as the market needs when new capacity comes online next year, a Saudi oil official told Reuters on Tuesday.BusinessWeek magazine reported last week that the kingdom would only be able to produce oil at maximum capacity for a short period of time before scaling back output.
"This is sustainable for as long as the market needs it," he said. "We are on track to reach production capacity of 12.5 million bpd by the middle of next year and we will do it."
Good news about oil, but for our grandkids - not us
A comment on this site said ”The data really do speak for themselves if given a chance.” Unfortunately this is not so. Change can disorient us, making it difficult to clearly observe and analyze the situation. Lawrence Solomon demonstrates this for us in his article about peak oil. Too many people make his mistakes, and we will pay dearly as a result.
Let's meet the energy challenges
The full story about peak oil -- its causes and consequences -- may elude us until well after the dust (or feathers) settle. What we do know is that we should expect -- and plan for -- a period of discomfort. The lives of all but approximately 2.4 billion of the world's people are dependant upon oil and other fossil fuels. We, who depend on them, do so for every economic decision we make, from boardroom to breakfast table. Renewables are not going to ramp up in such a manner as would sustain our current way of life (though this shouldn't prevent us from investing in them). Ours is a culture that will have to shift from energy arrogance to energy modesty. That shift requires imagination, innovation, new notions of achievement and bold leadership. It is not impossibility.
Team focuses on future of agriculture
AN ORGANIC farming expert spoke about how agriculture might work in a post-peak oil world at the latest meeting of a Harborough environmental group.
Fiction collides with reality as I walk around Collinsville listening to First Selectman Dick Barlow's grand idea.Restored turbines in the power station along the Farmington River would generate power for hundreds of homes in Canton, which includes the village of Collinsville. The old ax factory building is finally reborn, providing affordable homes and jobs. People live, work and play by the river as a community revives a backyard economy.
Dreaming again, you say? The truth is that rising energy prices are going to change the way we do everything. Barlow and Collinsville are in the vanguard.
Global warming may raise kidney stone risk
Global warming could do more than hurt polar bears: It could force a rise in kidney stones, scientists warned Monday."We see a relationship between kidney stones and temperatures everywhere," says study co-author Margaret Pearle of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School in Dallas. "Even in places with air conditioning, warmer temperatures mean more stones."
Scotland: Carbon ration cards demanded
SCOTS should sign up to the idea of emissions rationing in order to become a zero-carbon community, according to the scientist behind a radical new environmental campaign.Dr Justin Kenrick believes climate change should be approached in a similar manner to living through a war – and our use of should be rationed in a similar way to food during the Second World War.
Björn Lomborg: The green inquisition
We're being force-fed vastly over-hyped scare stories which block out sensible solutions to climate change.
Oil market to tighten again after 2009/10: IEA
ALGIERS (Reuters) - Oil markets are expected to tighten again after easing in 2009/10 so producer countries should increase investments, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday."The situation could be better in 2009/2010 but after that the situation will be getting tighter again," IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told reporters on a visit to OPEC member Algeria.
"We want producing countries to increase investment."
OPEC revises 2008 world oil growth forecast down to 1.20%
VIENNA (AFP) - OPEC on Tuesday revised down its forecast for growth of world oil demand this year to 1.20 percent from 1.28 percent, citing the economic slowdown and high fuel prices."The new price structure and slower world economy have helped dampen oil demand growth in many regions," it said in its monthly report.
Brazil oil workers may extend strike to refineries
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Oil workers in Brazil may extend a five-day strike that started in the country's main production hub to the rest of the country and include refineries and shipping terminals, union officials said Tuesday.
Iranian national oil company: Total to remain committed to Iran projects
TEHRAN (Xinhua) -- National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)on Tuesday rejected reports about French energy giant Total's withdrawal from the nation's South Pars gas deal, saying it has officially announced that it would carry out its commitments in Iran's oil industry.
GM announces job cuts, suspends dividend
DETROIT - General Motors Corp said on Tuesday it would cut salaried employment costs by 20 percent, sell up to $4 billion of assets and borrow at least $2 billion in a bid to bolster its liquidity by $15 billion through 2009.GM also said it would suspend its common stock dividend in a restructuring driven by high fuel prices, a shift away from trucks and SUVs, and the lowest U.S. industrywide auto sales in a decade.
Japan's fishing industry hit hard by rising fuel prices
Fishermen say it's too expensive to take out their boats. They plan a strike Tuesday, sparking fears of a food crisis in a nation where seafood is a staple.
Côte d'Ivoire: City on Go-Slow as Residents Protest Sudden Fuel Price Rise
Thousands of business-owners have closed down their shops across the capital today and several of the city's main roads have been blocked in protest of a government decision to stop fuel subsidies, which caused prices to rise steeply overnight.
Nigeria will subsidise petrol, diesel prices
Abuja - Nigeria's petrol tanker drivers suspended a nationwide strike that had sparked panic fuel-buying, after the government pledged to lower the cost of diesel, a senior union official said on Monday."We suspended our action on Saturday night after promises from the oil minister that he would find a way to subsidise fuel prices," said Pius Ikechi, the deputy president of the Nigerian Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas workers.
Contrary to nearly all received wisdom in Washington, not to mention the rhetoric of the presumptive nominees of both major parties, the scariest moments in American politics are often its most bipartisan. Some would say that this was demonstrated in the wake of 9/11, when all those allegedly terrible national security laws were enacted by both parties, or in the run-up to war, when Democrats and Republicans alike united to topple Saddam Hussein. But I find it is most true when Washington takes a populist turn, which it is doing now with pugnacious stupidity, attacking that classic populist boogeyman: the "oil speculator."
Energy-addicted U.S. can learn a lot from Europe
PARIS - A few days before we flew to Barcelona last month to attend a wedding, international headlines filled with news that truckers had blocked roadways leading to Spain's major cities, leaving some store shelves bare.The wildcat strike passed, and the wedding went off without a hitch. But the independent truckers' protest – and subsequent efforts by Spanish farmers to block roadways in protest – bear testament to the pain inflicted by diesel fuel prices that have passed $8 a gallon and continue to climb.
That's right, $8 a gallon.
Canada's Boreal forest gets some protection
OTTAWA(AFP) - A huge swath of Canada's northern Boreal forest will be permanently protected from tree harvesting and mining as part of a plan to combat climate change, Ontario province's premier announced Monday.
EPA experts detail global warming's health risks
WASHINGTON - Government scientists detailed a rising death toll from heat waves, wildfires, disease and smog caused by global warming in an analysis the White House buried so it could avoid regulating greenhouse gases.In a 149-page document released Monday, the experts laid out for the first time the scientific case for the grave risks that global warming poses to people, and to the food, energy and water on which society depends.



OPEC’s Monthly OIL Market Report (large PDF) is out this morning. Crude production for June was 32,290 kb/d, up 124 kb/d from May but that was after May production was revised downward by 28 kb/d.
Big changes were Saudi Arabia, up 171 kb/d and Kuwait up 23 kb/d. Downs were Iraq down 36 kb/d and Venezuela down 54 kb/d. All other changes were smaller. Nigeria was unchanged.
Saudi 2008 production looks like this, in thousand barrels per day:
Jan. 9,075
Feb. 9,090
Mar. 9,031
Apr. 8,984
May. 9,179
Jun. 9,350
All other OPEC nations seem to be holding their own, either up or down only slightly. Venezuela, who produced 2,720 kb/d as late as March 2005 is now down over 400 kb/d since that date. Indonesia is also in long term decline though their production has been relatively flat for about 15 months.
Ron Patterson
Hi Ron,
Just wondering is that a normal variance in monthly production figures for the Saudis or are the figures hiding something unusual?
Tremain, yes such variation is pretty well normal for Saudi. I think they are pumping as much as they possibly can so their production figures reflects new oil here and declines there. According to Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects Saudi is supposed to have 908 kb/d of new oil coming on line in 2008. I think that is an exaggeration however no doubt they will bring, and have already brought, some new oil on line this year. Remember most of this new oil will simply replace declines elsewhere.
That is the real story. In fact, that is the story all over the world.
Ron Patterson
Rounding off, this is a first half average of 9.1 mbpd. If they were to match their 2005 annual rate of 9.6 mbpd, they would have to average 10.1 mbpd in the second half of the year. In other words, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will show three straight years of crude oil production below their 2005 rate.
Meanwhile, on a total liquids basis, their consumption in 2008 will probably be up by about 500,000 bpd over their 2005 rate. So, I estimate that if they wanted, in 2008, to simply match their 2005 annual net export rate, they would have to average about 12.6 mbpd, total liquids, in the second half of the year--versus their 2005 annual rate of 11.1 mbpd.
From the Saudi announcement linked above:
I would assert that the "market needs it" in perpetuity, which renders such a production rate NON "sustainable." Do these people even bother to read or think through their announcements?
Where "the market needs" are defined by Saudi Arabia, after having looked at what they can actually produce.
It was only a few months ago that they were saying "there is no call for more oil" - right up until they got a new field working, when production jumped. Reality is mutable to Aramco.
on the other hand, 500kbpd means that roughly 70 milion dollars a day will stay in developped countries, instead of going to saudi arabia.
that's a lot of money. maybe some of that money will go into renewable energy
"that's a lot of money. maybe some of that money will go into renewable energy'
Now if Joe SixPack would only think of that while walking to work tomorrow, since there isn't enough mass transit to go around.
i must say, the reinvestment part hit me like a brick when reading the article about pakistan turning "green", mostly by needing it.
let joe sixpack freeze a winter, and he'll start digging into solar power / electric heaters / wood burning. he'll also start noticing the latest and greatest architectural wonders: bus stations
necessity is the best teacher, afterall.
In my neck of the woods, bus ridership has doubled in the last few months. I found that out talking to a bus driver who said: "I can't afford to drive anymore."
Here's the OPEC production table extracted from the report
And here's the world production according to OPEC.
Memmel, if you read this, can you suggest what you believe the real production figures to be based on your analysis?
Here's the statement from the report supporting the news item in yesterday's drumbeat. Yesterday's MEES report said demand would fall 500k/day but the actual published OPEC report is even worse and says 710k/day (although the difference between 32.0 and 31.2 is 800k so I presume there's some rounding going on)
Thanks Undertow, got a link for that?
It's at the bottom of page 3 (physically numbered page 1) of the OPEC PDF you posted, with further details on page 7 (numbered page 3)
http://www.opec.org/home/Monthly%20Oil%20Market%20Reports/2008/pdf/MR072...
The important thing to look at is how oil is moving month to month what you see is that the surge months seem to always be lead by decline months and more importantly any increases seem to be temporary i.e less than sixty days followed by a slow down. And as noted overall production with a running average is lower.
My conclusion is that changes in production reported are actually changes in storage levels in the producing counties real production is probably pretty much flat out.
Understand that before this year seasonal demand fluctuations resulted in demand still dropping below production capacity in the spring and fall. Starting last fall the seasonally caused spare capacity seems to have evaporated.
I do get a tanker tracker report and from it it seems that exports have been pretty much flat but with ships taking turns sailing east then west. So you have a number of temporary storage shell games in progress.
1.) Production is pretty much flat out but.
1.) For two months send excess to storage and claim higher production numbers.
2.) For two months claim even higher production numbers as storage is drained.
3.) Send extra oil east for a few months refilling storage in asia
4.) Send extra oil west for a few months refilling the EU/US ( lower imports to Asia )
However overall this year your seeing a persistent storage drain.
To me at least its really hard to split out the lower production from export land however I believe that lower production is playing a big role because fungible side products of refineries like bunker fuel are in short supply globally. Part of this of course is a move to complex refining but even with that if KSA was refining the oil you would expect them to be taking a larger role in the Bunker fuel market.
But we have no sing of excess production from Export Land refineries this is not definitive because they could be burning residuals for electric generation. But bottom line is we seem to have both production and export land problems even though splitting the two is very difficult.
So it looks like we probably have a combination of a slow decline in production of good grades of crude and export land.
Finally I mention good grades because it looks like some heavy sour crudes are not being purchased so some spare capacity exists for those and this is also contributing to changes in the numbers as these are discounted enough to sell. This is my heavy-sour/ NG problem.
Every thing seems to be on various 2 month like time tables so you have sort of a natural 4-6 month cycle with real inventories lower if smoothed over say 3 months and production lower. Whats critical is that you have no signs of any sustained production increase and plenty of indications that storage is being manipulated world wide to stave of shortages.
My best guess is we are down about 2mbpd in production from the real peak in 2005 with the recent reported peaks a figment of OPEC's imagination they don't even show in the ship tracking. I think export land has us down on top of this at least 1mbpd for a net decline from a 2005 peak in exports of about 3mbd. This is sufficient to initiate real post peak problems I have that at 4mbd down from real peak and we are if you look around rapidly approaching post peak like symptoms. Also 3mbd fits very well with the current price levels and storage levels.
My best guess is that by this winter serious shortages will develop somewhere in the 2nd/1st world that cannot be papered over by this shell game.
The increase in complex refining capacity and even using cokers on the residuals from light sweet refining is probably all that has kept up running this year and its taken its toll on NG prices. Given that the biggest oil users now pretty much all have complex refining I don't expect significant gains from more complex refining to help in fact we have excess refining capacity this year. Next of course the death of the housing industry in the US and world wide will act as a fairly big demand drop thats helping and will continue to help some even into next year. Thus the only good news as the continued popping of the global housing bubble is reducing demand to some extent. This is at least temporarily lessing the impact of what I believe is a real decline of 3mbd and of course initial conservation efforts are playing a role.
Thus it seems the first big peak oi/export land event besides rising prices will probably be a fuel shortage esp diesel in the southern hemisphere as they enter their growing season and summer.
Our diesel shortage should become acute and demand for heating oil and diesel for planting in the south clash. And a chance for a silent spring in the Northern Hemisphere as the sound of diesel trucks and farm tractors does not fill the air.
Thanks. I have to say your "best guess" seems to fit in with the oil price a lot better than OPEC's figures. If you believe OPEC, recent prices seem almost directly proportional to production (rather than the inverse).
Thanks the fact that misinformation seems to be happening is itself a important piece of information.
The evidence points to OPEC being unable to make any serious sustained production increases
and more importantly they are lying about it.
"I do get a tanker tracker report..."
just curious, about how much crude is in transit at any time ?
A lot :)
Seriously though shipping is a big part of the storage of oil.
You don't need the tanker report for this say 40 mbd is shipped then at any one time say on average 2 weeks of oil are at sea so 120mb or so are in transit on the ocean at any given point in time. Or about a 5 weeks of usage by the US.
Take a look at this image from New Scientist (June 2008):
Click for a larger version
Oil market to tighten again after 2009/10: IEA
"We want producing countries to increase investment," IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told reporters on a visit to OPEC member Algeria.
This goes back to what we were talking about yesterday here on TOD.
If the goal of OPEC countries is to make the most money, why should they?
As Bassam Fattouh concluded, "it is more profitable for OPEC to err on the side of under-investing in new capacity as opposed to expanding capacity as the decline in oil sales can be compensated for by the increase in oil price in tight market conditions."
There is a delicate balance which will force consumers to make changes which will have the long term effect of reducing their uses of oil. Once forced to do so, it will be very difficult for the producing nations to keep demand up. While that may not be a problem right now, if Exxon has in fact made a breakthrough in battery technology which will make electric cars practical, and if one or more of the huge car manufacturers actually takes advantage of that technology, who will want to go back?
The balance is not super-delicate, and it will take additional price increases to get consumers to make the switch. Opec and Russia, for instance, will need to watch this situation very closely if they are to keep the world from making these changes.
Investment is not the only answer however. Drilling only counts if it results in production. Nothing is a slam dunk for any of them at this point, in spite of the impression one might get reading the link yesterday about Kurdistan.
Unfortunately, I have yet to figure out how to quote someone, so I will just use brackets:
[As Bassam Fattouh concluded, "it is more profitable for OPEC to err on the side of under-investing in new capacity as opposed to expanding capacity as the decline in oil sales can be compensated for by the increase in oil price in tight market conditions."]
Wouldn't this statement be similar to the whale hunters in the 1900's saying that a scarcity of whales is a good thing? As we know, whale oil became more expensive and rock oil became less expensive which lead to a collapse of a way of life to thousands of people.
Shaun,
Your analogy would hold if there were an alternative transportation fuel, competitive in price, in the offing.
Hmmm... I wonder how much it costs to produce a barrel of whale oil?! I'm not serious, obviously!
You don't need perfect substitution a partial substitute is fine.
The long years of low oil prices was in my opinion driven largely by the availability of cheap NG that acted as a substitute and replacements for many uses of oil dropping demand and specializing oil usage in the transportation sector.
Enough alternative transportation such as electric rail or EV's could theoretically reduce demand for oil enough to ensure low oil prices and a mix transportation network with oil used where electricity did not work well.
We would party like it was 1990 until we ran low on something else most probably NG. But NG is not easily replaced esp worldwide.
Next of course the move to electric cars is really a US thing Electricity is not cheap in most of Europe.
The second and third world don't have the infrastructure etc etc.
Cheap oil would spur growth swamping any gains in efficiency in the US as Chindia demand would overwhelm US efficiency gains. Rising NG costs in North America threaten our ability to produce cheap electricity increasing costs esp for EV's.
Pop goes the dream bubble.
I find the common assumption on TOD that "Chindia" demand will continue to surge very suspect. Those economies are more fragile than is generally suspected.
The evidence you have presented is overwhelming. Also, linking China with India is illogical-they really don't have that much in common economically.