DrumBeat: July 14, 2008
Posted by Leanan on July 14, 2008 - 8:15am
Topic: Miscellaneous
UK joins debate on speculators in oil markets
LONDON (Reuters) - A British parliamentary panel will on Tuesday join in the debate on why oil prices are at record levels above $145 a barrel and whether speculators have played a role.The UK Treasury Commmittee will grill economists, executives from electronic exchange ICE Futures Europe and officials from the UK regulator the Financial Services Authority.
After consulting a wide variety of experts on both energy and markets, I could find nobody who sees speculation as a major contributor to the oil price spike. The problem is massive global demand overpowering a finite supply, aggravated by uncertainty about oil supplies in the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela. But the image of evil men on Wall Street manipulating oil prices fits, to borrow the trenchant phrase of the late historian Richard Hofstadter, "the paranoid style" in dealing with the current crisis.
Bush lifts offshore drilling ban in symbolic move
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush lifted a White House ban on offshore drilling on Monday to try to drive down soaring energy prices, a largely symbolic move unlikely to have any short-term impact on high gasoline costs.
Petrobras Says 36 of 38 Platforms in Oil Strike Are Producing
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, said it's producing crude from all but two of 38 offshore production platforms affected by a strike that began this morning.
Contaminated US site faces 'catastrophic' nuclear leak
More than 210 million litres of radioactive and chemical waste are stored in 177 underground tanks at Hanford in Washington State. Most are over 50 years old. Already 67 of the tanks have failed, leaking almost 4 million litres of waste into the ground.There are now "serious questions about the tanks' long-term viability," says a Government Accountability Office report, which strongly criticises the US Department of Energy for delaying an $8 billion programme to empty the tanks and treat the waste. The DoE says the clean-up is "technically challenging" and argues that it is making progress in such a way as to protect human health and the environment.
Russia blasts oil majors on production
MOSCOW (AP) -- Three of Russia's oil projects, which all have foreign participation, failed to achieve oil production targets in 2007, Russia's Audit Chamber said Monday.The state auditor said in a statement that the projects in question were ExxonMobil's Sakhalin-I, Gazprom's Sakhalin-II and Total's Kharyaga, all of which operate under production-sharing agreements.
Petrobras says strike cuts output by 300,000 bpd
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Brazil energy giant Petrobras said on Monday that a strike started by its oil workers at midnight on Sunday will cut its production by 300,000 barrels per day.
PayPal's cofounder hopes to produce a practical $30,000 all-electric car in four years.
Could sustainability lead to an authoritarian future?
Those who imagine humans eventually returning to agrarian societies also often imagine that such societies have the potential to be much more democratic and egalitarian than our current world. But, among those who imagine what I'll call a sustainable industrial future, there is little discussion of future political arrangements. It is implied that we will continue with nominally liberal democratic governance in North America and Europe. (It's hard to see, however, how that model will apply to say, the governments of central Africa.) But a sustainable industrial future, if it can be achieved, might require the regimentation of the individual beyond anything we have so far experienced.One need look no further than the issue of population to realize that this assertion is not overblown. In any sustainable society population cannot grow indefinitely. It must be stabilized at some point. How then to stabilize it? Normally, nature manages this task by making the death rate equal to the birth rate. The question that should concern us is whether we want to allow nature to match high birth rates with high death rates or whether we'd like to keep both birth and death rates low. Presumably, one of the principal advantages of industrial society is that it is able to provide a healthy longevity to many more people. This implies that to stabilize the population we must achieve birth rates low enough to match our low death rates.
The right to bear children, however, is regarded as a fundamental human right not to be interfered with by the state. And, the choice not to bear children is also regarded as a right in many countries. But if the choice is left up to the individual, there is no guarantee of a stable population. How then should we go about matching birth and death rates?
Russia says Czech oil supply cut "not political"
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Monday it cut oil supplies to the Czech Republic last week for technical reasons, and denied it was linked to Prague's role in a U.S. missile defence shield."Trade with the Czech Republic or other traditional partners is in no way linked or connected with resolving the problem of deployment" of missile shield components, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak told reporters.
Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft said supplies to the Czech Republic via the Druzhba pipeline dropped by half last week only because two Russian firms had decided to refine more crude at home.
Iran's gas export prospects sink as tensions rise
LONDON — Iran's vast gas reserves will remain largely untapped so long as Western companies are scared off by political tensions and U.S. sanctions stop Tehran from getting the technology it needs to develop them alone.
Pull-out Demand Signals Final Bush Defeat in Iraq
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's demand for a timetable for complete U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, confirmed Tuesday by his national security adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie, has signaled the almost certain defeat of the George W. Bush administration's aim of establishing a long-term military presence in the country.
U.S., Iraq Scale Down Negotiations Over Forces
U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have abandoned efforts to conclude a comprehensive agreement governing the long-term status of U.S troops in Iraq before the end of the Bush presidency, according to senior U.S. officials, effectively leaving talks over an extended U.S. military presence there to the next administration.
Britons spurning foreign holidays as economy dips
Travel operators are reporting a marked shift in holiday habits among Britons this summer with a sharp rise in people choosing to take a break in the UK instead of going abroad. The strength of the euro, uncertainties about the economy, airport frustrations and rising fuel costs have all combined to increase the appeal of, say, a weekend in Weymouth or a fortnight in the Fens.
Even with gas prices cresting above $4 a gallon, large SUVs, pickup trucks and even Toyota Priuses barrel down freeways here in suburban Detroit at more than 75 miles per hour -- well beyond the 55 mph that was the national speed limit during the '70s and '80s.If the U.S. Energy Department's calculations are right, all these lead foots could save the equivalent of 29 cents to 94 cents a gallon if they slowed down just to 60 mph -- and reduce the fuel they burn by about 7% to 23%. But most of my neighbors and I still choose to hit the gas rather than add 10 or 15 minutes to our commute times.
Slowing to 55 MPH Could Speed us into Recession
There is no better example of how out of touch Washington is with reality than the idea that our energy crisis can be addressed with a reduction of the national speed limit to 55 miles per hour. This is a classic sterile ivory tower academic type answer to a much more messy and complex question than politicians realize.
That is why I believe we have gone off-track in our arguments for more energy exploration; we are approaching the matter from an economic and political viewpoint, rather than one of basic rights. This argument should be framed as the right to mobility versus the regulatory burden of an overweight government determined to use the many laws on the books to restrict our freedom to travel.One of the first things tyrants do when they take power is restrict the right to travel. The Roman Emperor Diocletian restricted the right of the peasantry to move off their tenant farms, laying the groundwork for medieval serfdom. The Russian Tsars did likewise at a later date. The Bolsheviks always required special passes for travel, and the fascist state in modern Russia is now doing likewise. Ditto Castro. Control of the movement of people means control of the individual.
Against the alarming backdrop of gasoline prices at over $4 a gallon, oil industry executives are busily working the halls of Congress to make the case for increasing domestic oil supply. In addition to pushing for access to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and oil reserves off the east and west coasts, however, some industry reps are also rehashing the argument that the Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST) presents an opportunity further to secure American oil by "locking in" drilling rights in our Arctic continental shelf.
Prepare for a Shock: Electric deregulation could zap your checkbook
It wasn't long ago that legislators from around the country were streaming into Pennsylvania to get a look at a successful model for electric utility deregulation...."Everyone was expecting this vibrant market to emerge and I don't think anyone envisioned PECO being the only provider in an unregulated market in 2011," Haver said.
World Oil Markets In Chaos – No Solutions In Sight
World oil markets are in a state of total chaos and this is nowhere more evident than in the United States. The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark crude oil for the US, has shot up by nearly 100% in less than a year and a substantial portion of this increase has taken place over the last six months. WTI closed at $139.64/B on 26 June. It was trading at an average price of $29.07/B in the second quarter of 2003 and around $80/B at the end of last year. Some analysts are now projecting the price to rise to as high as $150/B by the end of the year.The spike could not have come at a worse time. The US economy, facing one of its worse housing and financial crisis in generations, has been teetering on the verge of a severe recession since last August with no sign of a quick turnaround. Skyrocketing costs of the Iraq war coupled with rising inflationary pressures had already weakened the government’s ability to stimulate the economy through monetary or fiscal policy. With crude oil and other energy prices escalating daily, bringing the economy out of its current doldrums will be an even greater challenge.
Measure fills balloon sellers with worry
With helium costs skyrocketing and supply shortages developing, the balloon industry has struggled for more than a year to compete as worldwide demand for the gas has, well, ballooned. Adding to the turmoil is a bill in the California Legislature that would ban helium-filled foil representations of birthday cakes, Hello Kitty and the like.Foil balloons -- made from a tough polyester film known as Mylar or some other metalized material -- are accused of causing hundreds of power outages each year in California by short-circuiting power lines they encounter during escape attempts.
Paraguay: Oil Shortage Limits Public Transport
Asuncion (Prensa Latina) Public transportation service in Paraguay is still limited today by the shortage of gas oil due to logistic problems.To save fuel and avoid suspending the service, companies of this sector decided to implement an emergency plan that includes functioning of only 20 percent of its buses.
Zambia's sole petroleum refinery runs out of crude oil feed stock
LUSAKA (Xinhua) -- Zambia's sole petroleum refinery, INDENI Petroleum Refinery, has stopped producing petroleum products after running out of crude oil feed stock, according to Zambia Daily Mail....Konga said the ship ferrying the crude oil feed stock had delayed to dock in Dar-es-salaam because of some challenges in paying the supplier.
Taxi shortage latest threat to Dubai boom
But it is not simply a lack of taxis causing the problem. In fact Dubai has more taxis per person than most other major global cities.According to Bloomberg, Dubai has around 4.9 taxis per 1,000 people, compared to 4.7 in Tokyo, 2.7 in London and 1.6 in New York.
The problem has more to do with the city’s lack of public transport, soaring temperatures that can reach as high as 50 degrees Celsius in the summer months, and the cheap price of fuel, according to analysts.
India May Pay Twice as Much for Gas by 2010 on Demand
(Bloomberg) -- India, Asia's third-largest energy consumer, may pay as much as $12 per million British thermal units for natural gas in 2010, U.S. consultant Facts Global Energy said in a report.Consumers may pay twice as much for the cleaner-burning fuel because gas demand may grow at 5.1 percent a year between 2007 and 2015, and amid record crude prices, Facts said in a report e-mailed today. The price of delivered gas to consumers from Reliance Industries Ltd.'s gas discovery on the east coast is about $6 per million British thermal units, half of the U.S. benchmark gas price at Henry Hub.
Gas crisis 'threatening' WA tourism
The West Australian gas shortage is threatening to wreak havoc on the state's tourism industry because of higher costs for laundry services.The accommodation sector is facing a "major, major crisis" that may see international and interstate visitors being turned away at hotel reception desks, said Australian Hotels Association WA general manager Paul Brockschlager.
Canada: Gas tax will hit Metro hard
The region's transportation hub stands to lose a lot if a provincial carbon tax became reality, according to the chief executive officer of a transport company in Moncton.Vicki McKibbon, of Armour Transportation Systems, said the New Brunswick government's proposed gas tax would drive up costs beyond reason in the transportation industry, adding that wouldn't bode well for Metro since a good number of transportation companies are located here.
Pakistan: Saudi “bailout” and our energy map
Those who think that Saudi Arabia will once again write off the oil dollars should take another look at the world oil situation. The prices are rising on a daily basis, and what was yesterday simply a comparatively modest gesture to a Pakistan under nuclear sanctions, would today amount to extravagance. Therefore Pakistan should move quickly to exploit its coal deposits so that the dependence on Saudi largesse doesn’t become highly irresponsible, if not politically suspect.
ANALYSIS - What price Saudi oil bill deferrals for Pakistan?
Saudi Arabia - LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has agreed in principle to defer payments for crude oil sales to Pakistan, the Financial Times reported, raising speculation about what the kingdom is looking for in return.
Airline fares are up, fuel prices are at a record high, the dollar is down. That’s put the travel industry in the tank, right?Not really, insisted Alex Trettin, president of the Carlson Wagonlit Travel Center on Broadway Plaza in downtown Tacoma.
“With all the doom and gloom in the press, you’d think we’re all losing our jobs,” Trettin said last week. “Most of the people in the Puget Sound area are still working, still spending money and still traveling.”
UK: More nuclear plants ‘to be approved within two years’
At least eight new nuclear power stations are to be approved within the next two years and built swiftly under fast-track planning procedures, The Times has learnt.Gordon Brown believes that they will be needed to avoid an energy crisis in the next decade, and more will follow as the world tries to reduce its dependence on oil for power.
Coal To Liquid Fuel Study To Be Released
Officials in one eastern Kentucky county say they are ready to tell the world they have the answer to the country's energy crisis.Pike County officials say they are excited to release their findings from a year long coal to liquid fuel study.
Pickens' plan should spark energy debate
We don't know if Pickens' energy plan is the answer to America's energy woes, but at least an energy "voice" is on the scene. That can't be a bad thing. We hope Pickens does start a national energy debate that results in a plan the nation can live and prosper with.
Iraq's electricity-starved capital goes solar
BAGHDAD -- In a city with constant electricity shortages but no lack of sunshine, the new buzz is solar energy.Teams of engineers have appeared along major Baghdad roadways, bolting panels and bulbs to rows of towering steel poles to make solar-powered streetlights.
White House: Bush to lift offshore drilling ban
WASHINGTON - The White House says President Bush is planning to lift an executive ban on offshore oil drilling.In a Rose Garden statement on Monday, the president plans to lift the ban. But by itself, the move will not lead to more drilling off America’s coastline.
Congress must still lift its own legislative ban before offshore drilling can happen.
Canada should play big role in new world oil order: IEA
PARIS -- Canada could play a crucial role in helping to alleviate the current international energy crisis if it continues to expand Alberta oilsands production and considers allowing exploration off B.C.'s pristine coastline, according to a senior official with the International Energy Agency.But IEA chief economist Fatih Birol acknowledged there are major environmental considerations that weigh heavily on both options.
He also said increased Canadian production won't by itself alter the emergence of a "new world oil order," with consistently higher prices that could lead to economic decline particularly in the world's poorest countries.
Russian navy boosts combat presence in Arctic
MOSCOW - The Russian Navy on Monday said it was boosting its combat presence in the Arctic, including near the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen, amid increased international interest in the region."The Russian Navy has restored the presence of combat ships of the Northern Fleet in the Arctic region, including in the region of Spitsbergen," the Navy said in a statement.
That Sinking Feeling: Why Off-shore Drilling is Wrong Regardless of Peak Oil
It's a sinking feeling watching your country collectively making bad decisions over and over again. It seems like it's about to happen once more with the move to expand off-shore oil drilling and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. This is happening because there hasn't been enough logical introspection into what is driving our thinking.
Happy Days for Oil Companies Reaping Massive Profits
Fortune released its list of the most profitable companies in the world and 7 of the top 10 were major oil companies, including the top spot. Of these, 5 out of 7 were companies with major holdings in the U.S.The myth that oil isn't creating huge profits is a favorable one for these companies, who fear their exclusive elite status in the business world may make them a tax target. The myth may have some rather skewed basis in reality, in that the profit margins (net income, including tax, over net sales revenue) are not as high as some companies. However, the fact is that oil companies commodity deal in a commodity that has become worth so much, this they don't have to have a large profit margin to make epic profits -- they simply have to sell.
Future of big oil companies threatened by skills dearth – survey
The world's biggest oil producers are facing a "major skills shortage" over the next decade, which was the industry's biggest threat, a report said on Monday, as London Brent crude traded just under $143 a barrel.Audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG International said that all the national oil companies' directors that it had surveyed said that "a lack of skilled personnel was the biggest threat to their businesses going forward".
Homeowners who use heating oil seek alternatives
As heating oil approaches $5 a gallon, consumers in the oil-reliant Northeast are looking at pellets, heat pumps, firewood and even geothermal systems to soften the blow of high oil prices -- which have almost doubled in the past year and gone up nearly fivefold since 2003.
As gas costs keep rising, look at ways to fight back
With gas prices hovering above $4.50 per gallon and with the growing likelihood that those prices may rise to $7 or more in the near future, the time has come for America to declare war.“Declare war?” you may say. “Aren't we already waging one too many wars these days?”
But I'm not talking about war on another nation. We need to declare war on oil itself: a multipronged attack involving business, government and you and me.
Melting Ice = Rising Seas? Easy. How Fast? Hard.
Most forecasting is easier and more reliable in the short run than over the long haul. Think of weather prediction. (And history is full of failed long-term forecasts of everything from oil prices to human population trends.)But for scientists studying the fate of the vast ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica, the situation seems reversed. Their views of sea trends through this century still vary widely, while they agree, almost to a person, that centuries of eroding ice and rising seas are nearly a sure thing in a warming world. The great shifts of sea level and temperature through cycles of ice ages and warm intervals make that clear. I wrote about that consensus last year in covering the reports released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but also wrote about scientists’ frustrations over trying to convey the importance of a slow-motion disaster.
Oil Brings Americans Closer to OPEC Debtor Dependence
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleum-exporting nations from Saudi Arabia to Russia are not only charging Americans record high prices for fuel, they are also poised to become the biggest creditor to the U.S. government.Holdings of Treasuries by oil producers and institutions such as U.K. banks that are proxies for Middle East nations rose 44 percent this year to $510.8 billion through April, four times faster than the rest of the world, according to the Treasury Department's most recent data. At the current pace, they'll surpass Japan, which holds $592.2 billion, as the largest owner this month.
While the investment of so-called petrodollars into government debt is helping to temper a rise in borrowing costs as the U.S. finances a record budget deficit, it highlights America's dependence on foreign money. New York's Chrysler Building was bought last week by Middle East investors.
Oil prices head lower as dollar advances
LONDON (AFP) - Oil prices fell on Monday as the dollar strengthened and traders took profits from a record run that saw crude hit historic highs above 147 dollars per barrel last week.The dollar got support after Washington announced measures to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two giant firms holding almost half of all US mortgage debt which had been pushed to the brink by the US subprime home loan crisis.
(Hyper)-Inflation, Deflation, HOCG and LOCG
At a certain point, we see a growing disequilibrium between supply and demand (Peak oil and food commodities) and we end up having an inelastic supply (peak oil) and a rising or stable demand for the LOCG . Prices start rising at an abnormal rate. There is inflation and sometimes hyperinflation.Important is to understand that this is the direct result of Fractional Reserve Banking and fiat money creation by the banks and political authorities. In other words, they are at the very origin of the evil they are blaming the speculators for today.
Farewell Indymac, What's Next? Say Hello to the 1970s Inflation Rate (Part 2)
When the smaller banks fail, the “Big 5” will snatch them up at pennies on the dollar compliments of Bernanke's printing presses. Maybe now you can see why every nation wants to get as far away from the dollar as possible. They understand the worst is yet to come. Bernanke's “Big 5” banking bailout is only ensuring the dollar crisis will continue. However, no nation will be able to completely escape the effects of the falling dollar since it remains the universal currency. It is deeply embedded within global commerce and has extensive reach throughout the global financial system.And of course, you must have the dollar to buy oil. But this could change. In fact, Iran has already tried to convince OPEC members to follow its lead in demanding Euro payments for oil on its newly created oil exchange (I previously discussed this global dependence on the dollar in the article “The Big Secret about Peak Oil and the U.S. Military”). In the meantime, most nations continue to hedge the weak dollar by increasing gold reserves. As for the Middle East , they have their hedge against a weak dollar – oil.
UK: 'Lights will go out' by 2015 if Lords rejects Planning Bill
The lights will go out across the UK in seven years if the Planning Bill coming up for review this week is rejected in the House of Lords, according to a leading business trade body. It estimates the country needs £100bn of investment in major energy plants by 2020.
OPEC to Say Demand for its Crude to Fall in 2009, MEES Reports
(Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will tomorrow say demand for its own crude oil in 2009 will be less than its forecast for 2008, the Middle East Economic Survey reported, without saying where it got the information.The 13-member OPEC will say in its July 15 Monthly Oil Market Report that the call on its crude next year will be 500,000 barrels a day less than the corresponding figure for 2008, the Cyprus-based newsletter said today.
Venezuela says it will stop sending oil to US if Exxon freezes assets
MARACAIBO, Venezuela (AP) - President Hugo Chavez says if Exxon Mobil Corp. dares to freeze Venezuela's assets, he will not sell any more oil to the United States.Chavez said Sunday that while the U.S. oil giant lost an international court case to freeze the assets in March, it is still trying.
He said that if Exxon Mobil succeeds, oil prices will reach US$300. He also accused the company of stealing Venezuela's oil.
Nigerian Oil Union Suspends Strike Over Fuel, Welfare
(Bloomberg) -- A Nigerian oil workers' union suspended its strike to force the government to lower the price of diesel, improve the country's poor roads and the welfare of union road-tanker drivers, the union said.
Five-day Brazilian oil strike begins
Brazil's Oil Workers Confederation began a five-day strike against Petroleo Brasileiro SA, an action that may cut the country's daily crude production by more than 50 percent.
China oil demand unmoved by power woes
BEIJING — China's worsening power woes are all but guaranteed to trigger a surge in imported oil, just as they did in 2004 during the worst crisis in decades, right?Wrong, say experts and industry sources. While the theme is familiar, the circumstances couldn't be more different, suggesting that oil bulls looking for a reason to push crude beyond $150 (U.S.) a barrel will need to look elsewhere.
Kazakhstan to Tax Oil Production at Up to 20% of Output Value
(Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan will tax oil production at 4 percent to 20 percent of output value depending on the size of the field as the government seeks greater revenue from its energy assets, a deputy finance minister said.``The bigger the oil field, the bigger the tax will be,'' Daulet Ergozhin said today by telephone from the capital Astana. The government will try to maintain the attractiveness of oil- field investment in assessing the tax, he said.
Latin America Oil Rig Use Rises to 22-Year High as Oil Surges
(Bloomberg) -- Oil and gas rig use in Latin America rose to a 22-year high in June, led by Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela, according to a report by Baker Hughes Inc.Oil explorers in Latin America deployed 398 rigs last month, or about 36 percent of drilling equipment used globally excluding the U.S. and Canada, the highest since April 1986, Baker Hughes said on its Web site. The region's rig count rose 8.7 percent from a year earlier.
Jet Fuel Premium Collapse as Airlines Ground Fleets Weakens Oil
Fuel demand will fall 7.5 percent this year, or 95,000 barrels a day, and 104,000 barrels a day in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Department. That will spur as much as a 90 percent decline in the fuel's premium to heating oil futures, said Mike Busby, manager of oil and refined-products trading for Northville Industries Corp. in Melville, New York.
Worth the risk? Debate on offshore drilling heats up
Environmental hazard or energy bonanza: Oil and natural gas trapped beneath the USA's ocean floor mean different things to different people. As gasoline soars beyond $4 a gallon, President Bush and his would-be Republican successor, John McCain, see a viable source of domestic production. Democrat Barack Obama and the nation's environmentalists see a threat to pristine waters and beaches — and little help at the pump from offshore drilling.It's a debate with a rising decibel level, thanks to an energy crisis fueled by rising demand halfway around the world.
Bill passing brings electric rail closer to reality for Auckland
THE recent passing of the Land Transport Management Amendment Bill takes the Auckland region a step closer to electric trains and other public transport improvements.That’s the belief of Auckland Regional Council chairman Michael Lee, who is grateful for the support of MPs at a time when oil prices are constantly rising.
Africa: The Next Victim in Our Quest for Cheap Oil
Whether or not we have fully arrived at peak oil can be left to the nitpickers and bean counters to decide. What we know for sure is that the cost of black gold has exponentially risen in just a few short years, and the global economy it is built upon is currently straddling a razor waiting for the inevitable slice. That final cut may come from Nigeria, where all the major oil companies have done business, dirty and otherwise, for the last five decades, degrading the environment and depressing the general population along the way.
Italy and Britain eye nuclear power potential
PARIS (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said on Sunday oil-consuming countries should meet to fix a maximum price they were prepared to pay for oil or they would have to invest heavily in nuclear power.Berlusconi denounced the "unfair" movement of wealth from consumer nations to oil-producing countries and the "exponential" rise in prices.
Forests to fall for food and fuel
Demand for land to grow food, fuel crops and wood is set to outstrip supply, leading to the probable destruction of forests, a report warns.The Rights and Resources Initiative (RRI) says only half of the extra land needed by 2030 is available without eating into tropical forested areas.
Governors talk of moving beyond corn-based ethanol
PHILADELPHIA - Governors from the coal fields of West Virginia to the corn fields of Iowa talked Sunday at their summer meeting about moving beyond ethanol produced just from food sources.They sometimes have different priorities in reaching this conclusion — priorities that can be as simple as who grows corn and who feeds it to livestock.
And they're also not talking about replacement so much as supplementing: using switchgrass or wood waste products, for example, along with corn.
Bush climate action now? "Bogus": Schwarzenegger
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said on Sunday the Bush administration did not believe it should do anything about global warming and that any last-minute action before leaving office would be "bogus."
Russian researchers flee melting Arctic ice floe
MOSCOW - Russian scientists are evacuating a research station built on an Arctic ice floe because global warming has melted the ice to a fraction of its original size, a spokesman said.



Link above OPEC to Say Demand for its Crude to Fall in 2009, MEES Reports
This is astonishing! OPEC, knows in advance, that demand for its own crude oil in 2009 will be less" than in 2008. In fact, demand for OPEC oil will be half a million barrels less next year than this year. How do they know that? Perhaps they know they will produce half a million barrels less next year, therefore demand will be half a million barrels less. After all, is there any other way they could possibly know?
Ron Patterson
"Perhaps they know they will produce half a million barrels less next year, therefore demand will be half a million barrels less. "
LOL. rimshot!
I read demand to equal consumption. Consumption will be down because that is all they can produce.
I have a hard time with all of the "demand" statements I read, for that reason.
WaMu and National City plummet
Shares of the two troubled banks each plunge about 30% as investors fear the possibility of more bank failures.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/14/news/companies/washington_mutual/index.h...
What will bank failures do for oil investments?
I thought the exact same thing when I read that headline...
Yep, they've been setting themselves up for this for a while now. Nothing to see here, move along, lol.
Compare with this claim from Lehman
Crude oil set to tumble below $100 next year, Lehman predicts
"Lehman Brothers to collapse before next year, Lehman predicts"
BrianT...The strategy of these banks is simple. Since there is no avoiding the inevitable let's go bankrupt first so that our depositors will get some money before the FDIC runs out. If the depositors are satisfied we might avoid jail time, we might avoid tar and feathers and a rail ride out of town, maybe the angry mob won't gather and burn our houses down.
I took a peak at the ten most active list just now...NCC seems to be winning the race to the bottom. WAMU in second but gaining ground...and surprise surprise Fannie and Freddie stock has hardly moved. Are they in shock?
You know, I am so disgusted right now that I am going to get on a Harley and change the air in my head! Maybe I will stop at the Iron Horse and see Helment Dave and the regulars. Maybe I will be back tomorrow. Here is hoping that all have a pleasant day...me too...
To cite Oscar Wilde:
Work is the curse of the drinking class.
And again,
Moderation is a fatal thing... nothing succeeds like excess.
And yet again,
We are all of us in the gutter.
But some of us are looking at the stars.
Cheers! Enjoy the ride!
And, a little off topic, but one of my favorites from him:
"A man who marries his mistress leaves a vacancy in that position".
well the bank we[+ one adult child] use is on some short lists for failing . i closed out savings there as a precaution 6 mos. ago & tomorrow get most checking $ out[wife's check goes there for now] & will open an account at another. over 25 yrs. w/ em.
clearest sign to me re my bank was stock down over 90% YTD .
today CNBC analyst said, 'we can't recommend putting $ under u'r mattress"...
also NBC analyst 'oh FDIC has 60 billion & if that's not enough u have the full force of the US gov. backing u'r account..'
The Lehman projection is apparently based on their assumption that KSA is squeezing USA by not producing on purpose, even though they can.
Once negotiations with the new US president have guaranteed their future security, KSA will allegedly (according to Lehman) open the spigot and cheap oil will flow again and prices will drop to $65-$80/barrel.
Interesting that at the same time, as linked above, OPEC is assuming that oil demand will be less in 2009.
Surely somebody's lying more than the rest :)
SamuM writes:
It kinda makes sense. KSA feels threatened by the current administration. So they fight back by doing whatever they need to dramatically increase their wealth awaiting a time to use it. With a new president and presumably an administration easier to work with they might reward the USA.
If such happens I would be more likely to believe the "blue eyed slave" remarks.
Would that 65 be in "new" dollars or old dollars?
Sheesh! Lehman? Investment "banks" are not people I would take advice from or even listen to. These are stockbrokers and whatever they say is designed to influence people into doing their bidding. Hey buddy, I got some good high grade alternative investment vehicles you should be considering.
No-you have to give them a special label that intimidates the mark. SIVs (structured investment vehicles) is a good one. Sounds really intelligent and technological, like financial engineering. Actually anytime you can get words like "structured" or "engineering" in the title you are on the right track. You want your scam to sound very complex-Greenspun was the master at this garbage.
This is an interesting prediction--that oil prices will fall below $100 per barrel in next year. The prognostication is made even more interesting by the reason it gives for the anticipated price decline. Oil prices will fall not because of demand destruction, but because of increased supply from OPEC.
But how likely is this?
Two camps have emerged that would find an increase in OPEC supply highly doubtful.
One camp consists of the Peak Oilers. These are the Materialists, the physicists and chemists, and their applied science cousins, the engineers and geologists. The Oil Drum attracts a good number of these people, and we are all familiar with their arguments that appear daily here on this blog.
The other camp consists of economists, political theorists, historians and psychologists. These are the Vitalists. They come to the same conclusions as the Materialists--that an increase in OPEC production is highly unlikely--but for very different reasons. Amongst their ranks are people like Amy Myers Jaffe, with an article posted here on TOD yesterday...
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/5884752.html
and Bassam Fattouh of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, who presents many of his ideas in this report, "OPEC Pricing Power"...
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/WPM31.pdf
Amazing to me is that the Materialists and Vitalists, even though they embrace the same conclusion, have split into two warring camps. The two articles by Vitalists above religiously shun any mention of Peak Oil. They seem to embrace the reserve figures published by OPEC countries as if they were revealed truth. Likewise, many Peak Oilers have also bowed their necks, ruling out any possibility that geopolitics and/or the internal political or economic developments within OPEC countries could stunt their oil production. The controversy very much reminds me of the early Christian doctrinal dispute over the Nicene Creed:
William Manchester, A World Lit Only By Fire: The Medieval Mind and the Renaissance
That curiosity aside, I find Morse's predictions of increased OPEC supply more than a little counter intuitive. What possible motive would OPEC have to increase supply and drive the price of oil back down below $100 per barrel? Bassam Fattouh discusses this extensively in his paper linked above, "OPEC Pricing Power." He concludes that many oil price "scenarios implicitly assume that OPEC has the incentive to increase market share (production) without any regard to oil prices. Specifically, it has not been investigated if the projected output path (increased OPEC production) will serve the interests of OPEC."
Fattouh builds the case that "rapid increases in OPEC output...are implausible and 'are likely to be contrary to OPEC's own best interests'." Fattouh's doubts that OPEC countries will increase production are based on a simple concept--that OPEC countries want to make the most money that they can. And along this vein he cites a study that calculates OPEC's NPV (Net Present Value) of future oil profits under various scenarios. His conclusion: Aggressive expansion of OPEC production output can yield lower payoff than if OPEC merely decides to maintain its market share (flat production). "In other words," Fattouh concludes, "it is more profitable for OPEC to err on the side of under-investing in new capacity as opposed to expanding capacity as the decline in oil sales can be compensated for by the increase in oil price in tight market conditions."
So anyway, he gets back to the same conclusion of the Peak Oilers--that OPEC production will not increase--but just for different reasons.
Now back to Morse's prediction that OPEC production will increase. The only possible motive I can see for OPEC to increase production to the point that it drives prices back down below $100 per barrel is if the Saudi royal family's imperial sponsor, the United States, somehow is able to convince it that it is in its best interest to do so. This, however, is also highly unlikely. US prestige and influence is on the decline, not on the rise, and the Saudi royal family is under increasingly mounting pressure from within its own borders to maximize oil profits.
A nonsensical statement.
"Many?" Like, who?
"Some" even talk a lot about geopolitical elements, even as symptoms of peak oil feedback loops:
Link.
The link to the Nicene Creed is, to be mild, ill-advised.
"The link to the Nicene Creed is, to be mild, ill-advised."
But nonetheless, in the context of the post, interesting. I tend to abhor dogma--I appreciate this example of the tragedy it sometimes leads to.
Good points worth arguing.
However, one must also balance exporter OPEC NPV against potential substitution. If price rises too much in a short time, this rise (not the high level itself) historically results in demand destruction. Further, if high price levels continue, this can result in demand substitution of an asset the price of which OPEC does not control. This has been modeled by Lisku et al in their oil export pricing model.
Thus, it would seem, that for oil exporters having spare capacity (assumption), the optimum strategy would be to let price rise as high as not to trigger major worldwide destruction/substitution, while hopefully ensuring long term production and revenue stream.
One could argue we are already past a level of comfortable for oil price and that destruction/substitution is already happening. The harsh words from KSA against biofuel initiatives within the OECD could also be interpreted as signs that OPEC is aware of the risks of current higher prices - up to a point at least.
However, as you (imho) correctly state, this appears to make very little difference in the end: if production doesn't rise for whatever reason, prices are likely to plummet - even if they might correct a bit.
So, in the end the fact that geological peaking and political production curtailing are more likely than unlikely to happen at the same time, does not make our lives a teeny bit easier.
Excellent points all, SamuM.
My feeling, however, is that if demand were to take a sudden nose dive, OPEC would curtail production in an attempt to defend some floor price.
Furthermore, I believe that they would be successful.
Afterall, between 1979 and 1985 OPEC did get its act together and reduced production from approximately 32 million BOPD to 17 million BOPD. At that time, however, it just couldn't overcome the combination of a flood of new production hitting the world markets from Russia, Mexico, the North Sea and Venezuela and decreased world demand from 67 million BOPD to 58 million BOPD (1979-1983). Because I have managed to convince myself that we have reached non-OPEC Peak Oil, I don't see things playing out this time like they did in the 1980s.
When two arguments lead to the same conclusion, in this case the vitalists and the materialists conclude production isn't going to increase, sometimes both are right. The vitalists have a legitimate argument concerning the motivations of producers, even if they don't acknowledge PO. As they point out PO is not necessary in order to predict a supply crunch. And as the materialists point out, if PO has been reached, then whatever the motivation supply will decrease. IMO, we have reached a point where both processes have come into play. A complete understanding of the world requires both interpretations be used appropriately.
This is not to ignore the other meaning of vitalist in this thread, which is the spread of magical thinking. But it also true that one can be a psychologist or and economist, and still be realistically dealing with the human part of the world, even if many ignore real world physical limitations in their theory.
I think most of the "peakists" here at TOD would agree that there is no definitive way to know that the Saudis don't pump more because they can't or because they don't want to. So what they do is look at the evidence, such as is available to the outside world, and try to make a judgment based on that.
What evidence do the vitalists making their judgment on? Could be, should be, may be. IMO, this is the same universe the Bushists live in, a world of Will, in which human agents are responsible for everything. The materialists, on the other hand, are reality based. The materialists could be right. But so could the quarter in my pocket if I flip it.
shargash,
I certainly didn't mean to impugn all the posters here on TOD. Gosh, people come here from all sorts of political, philisophical and relgious backgrounds. And the service that TOD performs is invaluable.
The argument between the Vitalists and Materialists is actually a very old one. It started with the advent of the Renaissance. Up until that time the Vitalists--i.e., theologians--held sway. But then concepts like reason, rational thought, empiricism, objectivism and scientific materialsim started to take hold, which all got rolled up into a larger philosophical framework called Modernism. Today scientific materialism has become one of its dominant creeds.
Perhaps one of the best modern-day critiques of Materialism is given by Daniel Yankelovich in his book Coming to Public Judgment: Making Democracy Work in a Complex World. As he explains, one of the flaws of Modernism is:
The same idea is expressed more concisely by Jacques Barzun: "[W]hen by a combination of science and finesse, useful inventions are created and benefit the common life, the public is doubly convinced that science has a monopoly of truth."
An early critic of Materialism was Max Weber. He questioned its spiritual failings. As Yankelovich explains:
Materialism experienced another crisis following WWII. Disillusionment came about when science and technology were used to perpetrate mass murder and genocide on a scale never before imagined.
I believe that Materialism may now be facing another crisis, this time not triggered by those turning its achievements towards evil, but by men of good intentions. More specifically, I believe science and technology may have reached their limits to control the environment for human benefit and comfort. But even more alarming, good intentions may end up having negative, unforseen and extremely destructive consequences, such as global warming.
Downsouth,
My degree is in Philosophy, so I'm pretty familiar with the old debate. I would agree that materialism is having a crisis, though I do not believe it is an internal crisis. Basically, much of the world is turning away from an empirical, reality-based view of the world, and towards a faith-based (or will-based, or fantasy-based) world view.
Materialism has it's limits. However, it is absolutely sovereign at describing the material world (that's not to say it is never wrong, just that it is far and away the best framework for understanding the world). I have no issues with people who want to use other frameworks to describe the human reaction to the world. It is when people begin to use faith in attempt to describe the world itself that I object.
You can see this turning away in Christian fundamentalism's (or Osama bin Laden's) rejection of much of modern science. You can see it in the Bush administration's "wishing for a pony" in Iraq. You can see it in blind faith in capitalism. You can see it in AGW denialism.
The human race isn't going to be able to deal with the our various real world crises in a fog of medieval superstition. So I have a tendency to smack down vitalism whenever I see it mis-applied to the empirical realm.
BTW, there was a typo in my previous post that I can't fix now that's it been replied to. I intended to write "The vitalists could be right. But so could the quarter in my pocket if I flip it."