DrumBeat: July 27, 2008


Police: rising fuel costs are ‘major public safety issue’

Patrol cars pose a major fuel-savings obstacle for law enforcement. Most departments use an 8-cylinder Ford Crown Victoria, which has high-speed emergency breaking capacity and gear ratios suitable for police pursuits.

So far, hybrids and other fuel-efficient cars are not powerful nor big enough for police equipment or to sustain the wear and tear of patrol. “Hybrid vehicles will not be a replacement for front-line cruisers,” said Fall River police Sgt. Thomas Mauretti.

Pakistanis go hungry as economic troubles bite

ISLAMABAD (AFP) — Until this year Fakharuz Zaman's Pakistani government salary was enough to get by on but now his weary wife lets their two-year-old son scrabble in the dirt for pieces of mouldy fruit.

A wave of economic woes has plunged millions of families like Zaman's below the poverty line, posing a new challenge for the fragile coalition government and even overshadowing the threat of Islamic militancy.

Spiralling food and fuel prices, power outages lasting at least six hours a day, a plummeting stock market and soaring inflation have all caused mounting anger in the unstable nuclear-armed nation of 160 million people.


UK: 100,000 Jobs to go in crisis

UP to 100,000 factory jobs will be lost unless more is done to tackle Britain’s energy crisis, MPs will warn this week.

The stark message will add misery to families already struggling to keep up with the high cost of living, as the credit crunch risks becoming a full-blown recession.


Finding and Fixing a Home’s Power Hogs

WHILE we all worry about where we’re going to get more energy in an increasingly energy-obsessed world, there’s also another alternative: Use less power. That may soon be simpler, thanks to the introduction of a bevy of inexpensive devices that let homeowners monitor how much energy appliances, TVs, PCs, and heating and cooling systems actually use.


Wood becoming more attractive heating option

Josh Vavra wants a cord of hardwood firewood so badly, he's offering tickets to a Red Sox-Yankees game to get it.

Vavra has used oil to heat his home in the past, but the 30-year-old Derry resident switched to using a wood stove last winter because of rising oil costs.

So far this year, he has found local dealers couldn't supply him with the dry hardwood he needs, which prompted him to turn to the online classifieds Web site Craigslist to trade what he calls one precious commodity for another.


A Modest Proposal: Eco-Friendly Stimulus

ECONOMISTS and members of Congress are now on the prowl for new ways to stimulate spending in our dreary economy. Here’s my humble suggestion: “Cash for Clunkers,” the best stimulus idea you’ve never heard of.


Wind power: A reality check

Plans are afoot to prod the nation into using much more renewable energy. Can it be done, and what's the cost?


Ice Free

Greenland’s ice sheet represents one of global warming’s most disturbing threats. The vast expanses of glaciers — massed, on average, 1.6 miles deep — contain enough water to raise sea levels worldwide by 23 feet. Should they melt or otherwise slip into the ocean, they would flood coastal capitals, submerge tropical islands and generally redraw the world’s atlases. The infusion of fresh water could slow or shut down the ocean’s currents, plunging Europe into bitter winter.

Yet for the residents of the frozen island, the early stages of climate change promise more good, in at least one important sense, than bad. A Danish protectorate since 1721, Greenland has long sought to cut its ties with its colonizer. But while proponents of complete independence face little opposition at home or in Copenhagen, they haven’t been able to overcome one crucial calculation: the country depends on Danish assistance for more than 40 percent of its gross domestic product. “The independence wish has always been there,” says Aleqa Hammond, Greenland’s minister for finance and foreign affairs. “The reason we have never realized it is because of the economics.”


Oil could be McCain’s issue

"I think this issue, the whole energy issue, offers (McCain) an enormous opportunity," said Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University poll, whose surveys released Thursday found sizable support in Wisconsin and two other Midwestern battlegrounds, Minnesota and Michigan, for new coastal drilling.

"People are much more open to drilling," Brown said.

"I don't think I've ever seen an issue turn around so dramatically," said House Republican Paul Ryan of Janesville. "I've always voted for drilling, and it's always been a political liability for me. My mail used to run 10-to-1 against it. . . . Now it's 13-to-1 in favor."


Sen. Bernard Sanders: Oil costs causing an emergency

Vermonters are especially hard hit by rising gas and oil prices. In our rural state, many people have to drive a long way to get to work or to a supermarket. In our cold-weather state, when winter comes the cost of heating homes will likely be double what it was last year. Refilling an oil tank is costing many families a thousand dollars – or more. Hundreds and hundreds of people have written or told me how the huge increases in the price of gasoline and fuel oil have made life exceedingly difficult for them and their families.

As a member of both the Senate environment and energy committees, here are four main proposals I am working on to address the energy crisis.


Ireland: Food crisis plan on the menu

"There's probably not a week's supply of food here for everyone in Dublin, let alone the country. The shelves would empty of food very quickly in the event of an emergency. We've seen food riots around the world, but it could easily happen here" said Bruce Darrell, an expert with Feasta.


Community gardens growing in popularity amid rising food prices, health scares

Community gardens are full for the first time in years, seed sales are up and memberships in home gardening groups are gaining -- part of a movement among Americans concerned with food prices, the environment and food safety.

In a growth spurt compared by some industry experts to the organic gardening movement spurred by the 1970s energy crisis, more people are raising their own fruits and vegetables.


Russia’s new Great Game

Employing strategies redolent of a new Great Game, Russia has stepped up its diplomatic and trade activities in the Middle East and North Africa in a bid to enhance its geopolitical clout and gain access to, and at least partial control over, the region’s oil and gas reserves.

Among the former global superpower’s tactics: linking arms deals and debt-forgiveness to energy deals.


Cuban President Warns of Tough Times Ahead

Citing the global economic downturn and the rising cost of oil, Raúl Castro said Cuba and other countries in the developing world face severe challenges that would require belt-tightening and patience.


James Kunstler insists suburbs are done for

A lot of people (Realtors, builders, bankers) are waiting for the “bottom” of the housing crash, with the idea that we’ll re-enter an up-cycle. I see it differently. There won’t be a resumption of “growth” as we’ve known it, certainly not in suburban residential and commercial real estate. The suburban project is over. We’re done with that. (I know people find this unbelievable.) The existing stuff will represent a huge liability for us for decades to come as it loses value and utility and falls apart.

However, I also believe our big cities will contract. They are simply not scaled to the energy realities of the future. The successful places, in my opinion, will be the smaller cities and towns that 1.) have walkable neighborhoods, 2.) have proximity to water for power, transport and drinking, and 3.) have a meaningful relationship with a productive agricultural hinterland. Some places you can forget about completely: Phoenix . . . Las Vegas . . . they’re toast.


Point of Contact: James Howard Kunstler

What kind of place will the Dallas area be to live in the Long Emergency?

As you probably know from reading TLE, I think the Sun Belt generally is in for tough times. We're going to rediscover why the territory between Charleston and the Pecos was an agricultural backwater before 1945, with few cities of any size. You can't overestimate the importance of cheap air conditioning – and the prospect for that is looking pretty grim in years ahead.


Gulf oil producers stance appears vindicated

OPEC countries, which supply about 40 per cent of world crude production, have already responded by increasing oil production by 350,000 bpd to 32.4 million bpd, with Saudi supply rising to 9.45 million bpd. Exports from offshore storage have also lifted Iranian supply to 3.8 million bpd.

Following Goldman Sachs' prediction that crude prices could hit $200 a barrel before the end of 2008, analysts at Lehman Brothers are now saying they believe oil prices have reached 'a tipping point', with forecasts that the price per barrel will ease to $110 by the fourth quarter and decline further to $90 early in 2009.


Jordan plans regional railway, oil link with Iraq

AMMAN - Jordan is seeking six billion dollars from international donors to build a railway link with its neighbours and plans to import Iraqi crude oil by rail, the transport ministry said on Sunday.


Iraq's oil exports decline in June

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi Oil Ministry says oil exports in June amounted to 58.1 million barrels, a 4.3 percent decline from the previous month.

Sunday's statement says it sold for $123 a barrel and yielded $7.141 billion.

It adds that 43.6 million barrels were exported through the south and 14.5 million from Turkey's port of Ceyhan.

No reason was given a reason, but exports through Basra's ports were suspended for a few days last month because of sandstorms.


Now it's war at BP-TNK

The oil giant's dispute with its Russian partners has erupted into open hostilities with the stage set for a long battle in the international courts.


Troubles fail to drive down Hummer owners' passion

Maybe mega-SUVs are going the way of dinosaurs. Hummer sales have dropped 40 percent this year. But these beasts and the men and women who love them certainly don't behave like endangered species.

"I told my wife when we bought this, 'Honey, we're investing in steel and rubber,' says William Welch, a Philadelphia surgeon who, cigar clenched between his teeth, offers a guided tour of his lovingly tended jet-black H1.

"If it was $10 a gallon," he says, "we'd still be out there."


Customers getting pinched as oil profits go to investors

HOUSTON - As giant oil companies such as Exxon Mobil get set to report what will probably be another round of eye-popping quarterly profits, just where is all that money going?

Companies insist they're trying to find new oil that might help bring down gas prices, but the money they spend on exploration is nothing compared with what they spend on stock buybacks and dividends.


Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part I)

Two terms that definitely scare investors (at least those who don't know what implications both have on their portfolio) are Stagflation and Peak Oil. One (Stagflation) might be happening soon but could be avoided, while the other (Peak Oil) might not happen soon, but cannot be avoided.


What Is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a backup supply of crude oil that's pumped into deep underground salt caverns more than a half-mile deep along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The complex, run by the Department of Energy (DOE), can hold a maximum of 727 million barrels of crude oil. The United States imports about 12 million barrels a day.


Life after oil

Humanity is sitting on a railroad track, and a train is speeding toward us. The name of that train is global oil shortages.


Carbon credits' dirty secret

First, buying and selling carbon credits doesn't remove one molecule of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Second, carbon credits weren't designed to lower emissions. They were designed to shift emissions around. Practically speaking, they will delay the day when we start lowering them.


Firefighting costs soar

As wildfire seasons have grown lengthier from year to year, the cost of fighting off the threat has skyrocketed -- and the funding situation is becoming dire.

WASHINGTON -- The Forest Service has struggled for years to pay for fighting fires that last year alone scorched almost 10 million acres. As fire seasons grow longer and the blazes more intense in forests stressed by global warming, the agency's funding woes mount.

In fact, the Forest Service has already spent roughly $900 million this year, almost 75 percent of its fire-suppression budget, and the season is just nearing its peak.

Nevada brothel entices visitors with free petrol

In an era of economic uncertainty and sky-rocketing fuel prices, America's long-distance lorry drivers can finally offset some of the increased cost of life on the open road – by filling up with what headline writers are calling "whore-star" petrol.

Nevada's legalised brothels, for years a favourite pit-stop for lonely truckers and travelling salesmen, have started offering free fuel vouchers to customers who are prepared to continue paying for sex, despite the wallet-sapping effects of the global oil crisis. At the Shady Lady Ranch, 30 miles north of the desert town of Beatty, visitors who mention the "July special" are being given cards that entitle them to anything from $50 to $150 worth of petrol at any Arco filling station.

New York Times: Expert Says Arctic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/nyt-expert-says-arctic-o...

Ah, nice head fake jbunt.

Here is a simple global warming intro guide from the Royal Academy, for those who would like a little science to wash out the bad taste of that denialist propaganda.

I take it you do not subscribe to the notion that if a person or entity was mistaken about any single thing in the past -they must be wrong about every single thing in the future? :)

People need to get their head out of the sand about what the arctic really is. It is an extremely cold environment, dark almost the entire year, waves of huge porportions and massive ice bergs regularly drifting around. It's as hostile environment as you can possibly get, it will take a massive amount of effort to get things going up there at "the end of the world".

Uh, where did you study pop science? In summer, the North Pole experiences sunlight all day long between the Equinoxes, that is, 6 months of the year. There aren't many of those "giant icebergs", as the source of most of these is the glaciers of Greenland and almost all of those dump bergs into either the Nordic Seas or the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait/Labrador Sea. Sea-ice is not the same as an iceberg. When there was lots of multi-year sea-ice, the winds could not produce waves. Things were calm enough for people to camp out on the sea-ice over winter, which Russian scientists have done for many years.

E. Swanson

This site is just amazing!! 14 negatives for a NY Times Article, hardly propaganda, and not one word of comment by me. And, can we save the word "denialist" for the Holocost crowd, use sceptic. You would think that since the editor posts things on global warming, some alternative views would be acceptable. The earth's surface is mostly water. The oceans are a huge part of the climate. If people think that CO2 (.04% of the atmosphere, and the atmosphere is .37% of the mass of the oceans, and man's contribution to CO2 is 7%) is the main cause of warming the oceans, I suggest that you should try boiling water with a hair dryer.

All good scientists are skeptics, but they must live with the data as it pertains to their field. Denialist, even those with science degrees, often ignore the data and cherry pick bits and pieces which they think will support their denial of the other findings. The mass of the ocean has nothing to do with whether or not there is global warming underway. Do learn some physics, won't you?

E. Swanson

Well, the gulf stream warms all of Northern Europe, and I guess that involves no physics. Good God, what has happened to the education system?

Is the education system a mess? My thoughts exactly.

Recall that the Gulf Stream is not the same as the Thermohaine Circulation (THC). The Gulf Stream spreads out as it leaves the U.S. coast and becomes the North Atlantic Drift Current. Only a fraction of the waters of the Gulf Stream move toward Northern Europe, the majority turns back towards the south and circulates around the sub-tropical gyre. It's the THC branch of the Gulf Stream water which does keep Northern Europe somewhat warmer than the coastal regions at a similar latitude on the North Pacific coast. Both locations are warmer than land areas at similar latitudes on the western side of the respective ocean basins.

But, to get back to reality, Global Warming is an atmospheric problem. The oceans can be expected to warm eventually, but the large mass will mean that the warming of the oceans will lag the warming in the atmosphere. The fact that the oceans are stratified implies that the warming of the deep oceans will be slow. What I was attempting to point to was the physics of the energy flows thru the atmosphere, with the solar input being balanced by the IR leaving. The physics says the balance point is changing, thus increasing the global temperature at the surface.

E. Swanson

Your reputation precedes you !

If you think that CO2 is not warming the biosphere because it is such a small %, add .04% of a strong dye (say india ink) to a very deep, very clear pool. A VERY good analogy to the impact of CO2 at infrared wavelengths.

You ARE a denier IMO.

Alan

While one experiment showed a glass enclosure filled with CO2 will warm more rapidly in sunlight than a glass enclosure filled with air; how might one account for glaciers receding from near the Indiana-Kentucky state line to above the Arctic Circle since the end of the Ice Age? Manhattan was once covered by a continental ice sheet that began to recede about 11,000 years ago. The ice sheet was there year round.

There was some other factor involved with this pre-industrial period of global warming that may not be plotted on CO2 density charts.

What caused the Ice Ages in the first place? Is there evidence one might reoccur? Will a change in the earth's orbit bring about another Ice Age? Will this cause a massive relocation of habitation?

By asking these questions you are proving one of two things: you don't understand what is or is not relveant in the science of global climate, or you have never bothered to do ANY research whatsoever becuase those are the most basic of questions and have the most basic of answers. If neither A nor B are true, then you are a troll on this topic for you are asking unimportant questions for questionable reasons.

You see, since none of those questions are really relevant anymore, having been fully accounted for and being fully understood in terms of their roles in the science of global climate, there can be only one reason to ask them (keeping in mind what I stated in the first paragraph): obfuscation. You wish to mislead those not well-versed in the topic to believe there is some doubt. There is not.

I present the same challenge to you I present to ALL denialists (And given that we know the vast majority are politicized, are paid off and don't do any perr reviewed science, I am completely comfortable with labeling them to almost certainly be criminals spreading disinformation in such a manner as to undermine the future security of humanity on this planet. That is, you are almost certainly committing crimes against humanity. Given that scale, if you are either A or B are true, then you are wasting everyone's time and deserve any vitriol that comes your way.): Present some peer-reviewed science that has stood the critiques or shut the hell up. (Hint: there isn't any.)

Let's be charitable for a nano-second and assume you are just gullible:

http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/02/how-to-talk-to-global-warming-...

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html

You can also search on any topic related to climate change at RealScience.

There will be no further charity from me. If you can honestly look at the science then return here and honestly remain a sceptic, then you are just lacking in objectivity and/or intelligence or are on the take.

Cheers

And you CCPO, have you ever considered that maybe being polite and semi respectful is a virtue? Your insistance on being rude and showing your a$$ reminds me of why on the survialist blogs their first global warming action is "shoot the f*cking environmentalists" then reduce fossil fuel use.

Lovely attitude....People like you are a hell of alot more dangerous than peak oil or global warming combined.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go load some more bullets.

And you CCPO, have you ever considered that maybe being polite and semi respectful is a virtue?

First, did I label the poster? I did not. I listed several possibilities, but the possibilities ARE limited. I then provided infomation for the poster to review. I then invited them back to state their opposition or understanding of the science.

How is any of that impolite? If we accept your characterization of my post, let me then ask: Are you polite to the guy raping your wife and murdering your kids?

I see no difference between bought off denialists and the above. We are talking civilization here. Pray tell, what need be at risk before you hit back? Is civilization not enough?

Beyond that, your post is ridiculous. I'm "dangerous" for calling a spade a spade? I'm dangerous for stating that a crime against humanity is *gasp!* a crime against humanity?

FACT: the denialist machine is the primary reason for people believing there is a serious debate about AGW. There is virtually no science backing up the claim. This being the case, there is no legiimate claim that AGW is not happening. (Not that scientists should not continue researching and going where the facts lead.)

THUS: virtually anyone advocating that agenda is corrupt or brainwashed.

THUS: the former are criminals and the latter lacking in intelligence, objectivity or knowledge. (Saying so cannot be called rude.)

You care to point out the flaw in the argument? Further, you need to defend your stance that I said anything impolite. If truth and logic are impolite, then we are well and truly screwed.

Cheers

Hey CCPO,

Thanks for your vigorous defense of science and GW. We've been too passive for too long, and only aggressive push back will produce results.

My (dis)pleasure. It's hard to believe it's even necessary. There's a guy on YouTube, a science teacher, who's done a great set of vids on the denialists' arguments. Great stuff. One of the people he'd been sparring with in his comments turned out to be a paid lackey. We have seen the same sort of organized disinformation campaigns from Big Oil and the Bush Admin for years. It would, in fac, be stupid not to assume people working so ahrd with so little evidence are anything but paid hacks. To do otherwise is to be forced to assume they are monumentally stupid. Which is worse to say about someone?

Frankly, I assume anyone posting anti-AGW tripe to be just that, a paid lackey, so I give no quarter.

Cheers

Yes, this chap should be tried for his crimes against humanity;

fears over man-made emissions melting the ice caps and causing a wave of unprecedented disasters were nothing more than scare-mongering.

and

was vital that the international community based its policies on science rather than the dogma of the environmentalist movement.

and even

the world needed to care for the environment but not to the point where the welfare of animals and plants was given a greater priority than that of mankind.

Perphaps he should learn some physics, and he is one of those ..

criminals spreading disinformation in such a manner as to undermine the future security of humanity on this planet

and he must be ..

lacking in objectivity and/or intelligence or [is] on the take

Whatever you or I think of the man, many millions of folk believe he is Christs' Envoy on Earth.

You would be the criminal, if anyone, for you have misrepresented what the Pope said in order to... what? Taking quotes and science out of context is the domain of the denialists. Until otherwise shown, I shall assume you are such.

In the Pope's case, his religious "belief" (ignorance) may be clouding his judgment as to the extent of the problem, but he is not denying AGW. It is a far cry from saying AGW is bull for a $10,000 check and saying let's not let ideology drive our understanding of the science. The latter is closer to what the Pope said, so no, he could not be considered to be committing a crime against humanity.

But thanks for adding nothing but bull crap to the thread. We should all be practicing spreading manure, after all.

Cheers

I suggest that you should try boiling water with a hair dryer.

Alternatively I suggest you take a nice ice cold beverage and try to keep it cool with wishful thinking.

Actually, I think much recent warming of oceans is due to greater undersea volcanism, magma flows and general crustal heating.

Likewise, many of the world's ice sheets, permafrost etc. seem to be melting from the bottom up -- due to crustal warming.

Any decent theories on this?

Yep it is pretty sad. This site will never accomplish very much if the readers are incapable of understanding even a simple rating system, let alone the global climate system.

http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=B776B41EB68F12C1

Please learn a little something about the planet you live on before pretending to know-it-all about climate change!

Then they will drill!

USGS Estimates the Arctic Holds About 22% of Global Undiscovered, Technically Recoverable Oil, Gas and NGLs

The area north of the Arctic Circle has an estimated 90 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of technically recoverable natural gas liquids (NGLs) in 25 geologically defined areas thought to have potential for petroleum, according to an assessment by the US Geological Survey (USGS). The assessment from the USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (earlier post) is the first publicly available petroleum resource estimate of the entire area north of the Arctic Circle.

These resources account for about 22% of the undiscovered, technically recoverable resources in the world. The Arctic accounts for about 13% of the undiscovered oil, 30% of the undiscovered natural gas, and 20% of the undiscovered natural gas liquids in the world. About 84% of the estimated resources are expected to occur offshore.

Of the estimated totals, more than half of the undiscovered oil resources are estimated to occur in just three geologic provinces: Arctic Alaska, the Amerasia Basin, and the East Greenland Rift Basins. On an oil-equivalency basis, undiscovered natural gas is estimated to be three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic. More than 70% of the undiscovered natural gas is estimated to occur in three provinces: the West Siberian Basin, the East Barents Basins, and Arctic Alaska.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/07/usgs-estimates.html#more

The article, as seen above, was published February 20th, 1969

.

Werd on the Street: There are so many people now riding their bikes to work here that the existing racks have been overwhelmed. That's not saying a whole hell of a lot, though, considering that there was space for maybe 8 bikes in the existing racks and I'd estimate that there are now about 15 bikes on a good day. A few years ago a good day would only fetch about 4-6 bikes though. Make of it what you will.

Recently took up riding a motorbike (Melbourne, Australia). Ratio of motorbikes to cars... Hmmm, 100 to 1? Cars will be around for a while yet, as long as the fuel remains "affordable".

Regards Matt B
PS. I'm still thinking $200 oil is years away; we'll bump around $130, $140 (folks'll simply use less, reduce demand a bit). So, BAU for the time being and PO awareness on the back-burner for now. Gut feeling, that's all.

On the back-burner? 200 dollar oil is far from years away. Expect a major spike when the IEA releases their findings about the oil fields in a few months time. People all over the world uses more and more oil, The recession needs to be deeper for people to really start conserving massively. You have to keep in mind that in Russia, auto sales are up 40% this year. That's a massive increase. And also keep in mind the extremely energy guzzling diversification plans of the GCC oil exporting countries going on at the moment. It's all about cheap energy over there, so the energy-guzzling activities locates there. Oil consumption is up 5-6% annually and total energy even more. In 12-18 months, expect oil to pass 300 dollar.

$200 to $300 oil... Sorry, don't see it. Oil prices have dropped quite a bit over the past weeks. Why? Because it was getting a little too expensive and demand was dropping off. As with anything, people WILL pay only so much (yes, there's exceptions)... Even "debt" has limits, doesn't it?

Regards, Matt B

But the American demand slowdown is small. The rest of the world is still seeing a big increase in demand. So the demand pressure is on, and every month it gets stronger. 40% increase in vehicle sales in Russia so far, Brazil up 30%, China up 17%. That's massive. And you don't seem to fully recognize the huge demand pressure coming from the GCC countries at the moment. Their diversification is based on cheap energy to attract the energy guzzling activities. The demand is on the march, a relentless march, and supply of conventional crude is flat.

Yes I understand demand (that is, countries "wanting more") is trending forever up. But how many of us will keep buying fuel from a $300 oil drum? Consistantly? It'll be too much! The "flat" 86mbpd will simply fall away. Will the Oil Guys and their shareholders be happy with that? Will the profits stack up?

Not that I'm against less oil consumption, BTW - or $300 for that matter. I just don't think it'll happen.

Regards, Matt B

The conventional crude supply is on a 74 mbpd plataeu. It is flat. NGLs, biofuels, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids and similar non-crude liquids make up the rest. But it is the crude that is the golden goose. You have to keep in mind first of all that there is 350 dollar a barrel equivalent gas in Europe already. So 300 dollar is not much. And in the GCC countries, gas is cheaper than anything you can buy, heavily subsidized, same with Iran. Demand there is on a steep uphill climb, as the divirsification process accelerates.

In China, the economy is bound to consume much much more energy and crude regardless of the price hitting 300 dollars. The momentum there is enormous, there's still big subsidies and it will continue. China uses a paltry 2 barrels per person, while the american uses 25. China wants to double and triple those barrels per person in the years ahead, as the country is preparing for the internal consumption boom and becoming less reliant on external demand. And even if China triples its consumption, china will still use less barrels per person than Mexico or Malaysia! Keep that in mind! China basically didn't use any oil previously compared to the rest of the world, and that made oil very artificially cheap for the rest of the world. But times have changed and the chinese are adding 500 GW power generation to the electricity grid in 5 years (2005-2010) and passing the 50 million vehicles mark, up from 2 million in 1990, and will add another 100 million by 2015.

It is exponential growth we're talking about, and that's what the chinese are used to. The small, but rapidly growing middle class in China (growing tens of millions each year) will be very angry if they dont get their will, and the government knows this, and with huge cash to burn (tax revenue increase has been up 30% year after year in China), they have the ability to please the middle classes and dont rock the boat.

The demand is on the march also in other countries of course, like Thailand, India etc, and now the Tata Nano (people's car) is about to be sold, a car that can be reached to hundreds of millions of Indians in the next few years, if only Tata starts to ramp up production immensely, and there's no reason why they wouldn't do that in the coming years.

You have to keep in mind first of all that there is 350 dollar a barrel equivalent gas in Europe already. So 300 dollar is not much.

That's not an equal comparison, taxation in Europe helps pay for things like free health care.

China uses a paltry 2 barrels per person, while the american uses 25.

Per day? Per week? Per Year? What percentage of that 2 barrels in china go towards the production of plastic goods exported to the OECD and rest of the world? What percentage of the American 25 barrels go towards the production of silicon chips used all over the world? Do the gallons of diesel used to bus Indian call centre workers to their work count as Indian consumption or whichever country is calling the call centre?

The world is too interconnected to use figures on national scales. We need to focus on world consumption as a whole.

That said I have nothing to add to the party. Going for a walk in the woods while they're still there.

When comparing USA w/ Europe, it helps see the whole picture to factor in the worthless yankee$.

In France, e.g., gasoline rose only 20-25% since last summer. But with the $-vs-Euro sinking heavily since then you see the difference between +25% and + 100%.
sa

Of course national oil consumption is relevant. The world might be interdependent, but you're not going to see a collapse in oil consumption even if trade slows down some. It's a myth that India or China are simply growing because India has call-centers and China makes stuff for the rich western world. They have massive internal demand, that's where the bulk of the growth is coming from, investment and internal consumption and that will be the case also in the foreseeable future.

Of course a total depression like collapse of world trade will cause oil consumption to contractGlobal trade is up 7% so far this year from last year, even though oil prices are much higher, and the boom continues strongly in the non-western world, only slightly lower growth there. China uses less oil per head than even Guatemala, the consumption in China basically hasn't even started yet and we see the pressure from China already making this effect. Keep in mind that if the average Chinese were to consume the same amount as the average Korean, we would have to add 6 new Saudi Arabias to the world supply...