DrumBeat: August 9, 2008


Living simply provides economic shelter

CHICAGO (AP) — Keri Rainsberger isn't rich. She works in the nonprofit world for a relatively low-profit salary. Yet, as many Americans are scrimping for every penny, she hardly feels the pinch.

She still tithes 10% of her income to her church, even as other members have cut back. She rarely worries about rising gas and food prices. And she never bothers to balance her checkbook, because she doesn't come close to spending what she has.

"I live so far below my means that it doesn't really register," says Rainsberger, a 31-year-old Chicagoan with a wiry frame and unusually sunny outlook. "I don't have to think about money."

How is this possible?

For starters, she has no car and commutes by bicycle each workday. She also has no mortgage payment and chooses to live in an "intentional community," a partly shared space where $775 a month covers everything from utilities to meals.

Steve LeVine - It's Official: The Caspian is a Terrorist Target

The surprise isn’t that terrorists appear to be responsible for an explosion that has shut down the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, and sent world oil prices up. It’s that no such attack occurred earlier in the Caspian Sea region.


Gunmen kidnap eight expats off oil vessel in Nigeria

LAGOS (Reuters) - Gunmen kidnapped eight foreign oil workers from a vessel off Nigeria's Niger Delta early on Saturday, bringing to 16 the number of industry workers seized in the past 48 hours, security sources said.


Kuwait says Iran nuclear dispute hurts neighbours

KUWAIT (Reuters) - U.S.-allied Kuwait urged Iran on Saturday to resolve tensions with the West over its nuclear programme, saying the dispute undermined the interests of Gulf states with which it shares a vital oil export route.


Peru miners fear energy shortage to drive up costs

LIMA, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Peruvian mining companies, the traditional backbone of the Andean country's economy, say they will face higher costs over the next year because of scarce energy supplies.

A drier than expected rainy season has slashed power output from hydroelectric dams, while the only gas pipeline that feeds thermoelectric plants is operating at full capacity. Its expansion will not be completed for another 12 months.


Drivers Strike Burdens Colombia

Bogota (Prensa Latina) Colombian drivers on strike nationwide for higher pay lower fuel costs continue to affect supply and exports.

Agriculture Minister Andres Felipe Arias said they will use police to stop the incipient food shortage and damage to exports, like the 180,000 sacks of coffee for export blocked in Buenaventura port.


Kashmir sees worst communal tension in decades

SRINAGAR: Occupied Kashmir is facing a shortage of food, fuel and medicine as the violence-hit region is gripped by the worst Hindu-Muslim tensions in decades, locals say.

Angry protesters in Hindu-dominated Jammu have been attacking trucks ferrying food, drugs and other essential supplies to the Muslim-majority valley, seeking to impose an economic blockade and defying a curfew.

Radical Hindu groups have told Muslims living in Jammu to leave and the latter’s houses have been set ablaze.


Nepal - End to fuel crisis in sight: NOC

Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced that it has started pumping out a substantial volume of fuel in the market. If this is continued, and officials say it will, fuel availability will improve dramatically by the middle of next week.

“We are determined to restore normal supplies of petrol and diesel by Tuesday,” said Mukunda Dhungel, spokesperson of the corporation

There is more good news, though the technically bankrupt NOC may rejoice at it more than its customers for now. The price of oil has started dropping in the international market and credible agencies said crude prices could settle at around US$ 100 a barrel in the short term.


Firewood prices are heating up

Homeowners hoping to cut their heating costs by stoking the wood stove might be in for a shock.

Firewood — if you can find it — has soared in price.


Electronic data centres sign up to go green

Electronic data storage centres in Dubai are increasingly becoming conscious about their environmental impact and are planning to take steps to go green.


China dominates in list of world’s cheapest cars

In the market for a brand-new, no-frills ride for less than $4,000? No problem — at least, not if you live in China. The country is home to the cheapest car in the world, the very basic Jiangnan Alto, powered by a 0.8-liter, three-cylinder engine and selling for a mere $3,785.32 (25,800 yuan).


UK: 12 arrested after refinery protest

The activists were protesting against the use of biofuels made from crops which they believe harms the environment pushes up the price of food in developing countries.


A look at rising need of crude in energy rich nations

(MENAFN - Arab News) With the crude demand-supply balance definitely tight, the growing consumption in the energy rich, oil-exporting countries is under hammer, adding to the existing confusion on the future prospects of the industry.

Fresh data from the US Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world's top oil exporters fell 2.5 percent in 2007, despite a 57 percent increase in prices and the rise in global consumption. And the trend appears to hold true this year as well.

Rising cash flow from high price crude have fuelled a boom in oil demand inside Saudi Arabia and across the oil rich Middle East, leaving less oil for export, some are now starting to emphasize. At the same time, aging fields and sluggish investments have caused exports to drop significantly in some of the exporting countries such as Mexico, Norway and, most recently, Russia.


Excess Oil Supply to Be Absorbed by Winter Demand

TEHRAN (FNA)- The global oil market is oversupplied but stronger winter demand should absorb the extra barrels later in the year, Iran's OPEC Governor said.

Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Reuters by telephone on Wednesday that the oil market was responding more to fundamentals after a price slide of around 20 percent in less than a month drove out some speculators.


The Risks of Falling Gas Prices

There's a national sigh of relief as oil prices fall and the cost of gasoline drifts down from record highs. Since peaking on July 17 at $4.11 per gallon, gas prices have dropped about 25 cents. Some analysts think fuel prices have a lot farther to fall. If so, it would be a welcome breather for a gasping economy.

But drivers probably shouldn't count on it. There's just as much reason for gas prices to go back up as to fall. Oil is obviously a volatile commodity, and it's prudent to plan for a worst-case scenario, not a best case. Plus, falling gas prices could reverse a few positive trends that have started Americans down the road toward energy independence.


Fuel tank tales

How people around Chicago are coping with gasoline prices.


Uganda: More Households, Hotels Adopt Renewable Energy Solutions

"Many people are buying solar energy for their homes or their businesses for they have realised that besides putting the dark days away, they can save money with the solar systems and also make more money with the solar business packs," he explains.

He says many innovative products are now on the market. For instance, he says that at Ultra Tec they have a solar household system with four lights capable of charging a phone and powering a small radio at as low as sh300,000 when fully installed.

He says they have also brought in solar DC computers that consume as low as 20w power and do not need investment on a solar panel, battery and inverter as compared to normal laptops and desktops. Other innovations include the solar fridges, solar '7' TV and lanterns that work for three to five hours non-stop.


NYC rail link study on track

For decades, rail enthusiasts pushing for passenger train service into the Lehigh Valley have been brushed aside as history buffs letting their dreams mask the reality that America's golden age of rail travel is passed.

But recently, with $4-a-gallon gasoline and highways crowded with thousands of people commuting as long as three hours to work, some of the Lehigh Valley's most influential leaders appear ready to make a down payment on those dreams.


Have we reached the end of the road for oil?

Petrol prices are set to fall this autumn, but David Strahan argues that oil is now so scarce that it may never be affordable again

...Contrary to the sanguine view put forward by Martin Vander Weyer in these pages yesterday, the facts are stark: the world has been discovering less for the last 40 years; for every barrel we discover we consume three; output is in terminal decline in 60 of the 98 oil-producing countries; and hundreds of billions of dollars in investment since the turn of the century have failed to stem declining production at many of the world's biggest oil companies.

As a result, it is widely agreed that oil production in the non-Opec world will "peak" - reach its maximum possible level - within two years, if it has not already done so. This means that the huge profits being made by multi-nationals such as Shell or ExxonMobil may turn out to be their last hurrah. "The days of the international oil companies are coming to a glorious end," said Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, last month. "Their reserves are declining and they will have difficulty accessing new ones."

Unfortunately, this means that the global oil supply will soon depend on Opec as never before. Many analysts suspect that the Opec countries, which claim to hold three quarters of known reserves, have been exaggerating their size for decades - in other words, they too will soon reach the physical limits of production.


Iran in new oil money move to dodge sanctions

TEHRAN - Iran's government has ordered the state oil company to deposit oil revenues only in selected banks in a bid to dodge toughening sanctions over its nuclear drive, local media reported on Saturday.


Kurdish rebels threaten more attacks in Turkey

ANKARA, Turkey - Kurdish rebels threatened on Friday to stage more attacks on economic targets in Turkey, days after claiming responsibility for a fire at a key oil pipeline, a pro-Kurdish news agency said.


Analysis: Nigeria losing 650,000 bpd

Increased violence has caused Nigerian oil output to decline by 650,000 barrels per day, according to the West African country's vice president.

The losses incurred by continuing attacks by armed militant groups on oil and gas installations in the Niger Delta are costing the country almost $68 million a day in lost revenue, said Vice President Jonathan Goodluck.


Georgia declares state of war with Russia

Russian paratroopers entered the capital of South Ossetia on Saturday as part of a military operation that Russia said was intended to force the Georgian side to cease fire.

Separatist-backed South Ossetian sources reported about 1,600 people have died and 90 have been wounded in the capital of Tskhinvali after two days of fighting, but Georgian officials said the figure was inflated. The Georgians said they didn't have their own death toll, but it would likely be closer to 100.


Global Analysis: Russia Invades Georgia

As these words are written, Russian mechanized troops are moving against the Republic of Georgia. The Georgian leadership has been taken by surprise. They did not think the Russians would go this far. So the question has to be asked: Why is Russia invading Georgia now? What would a war between Georgia and Russia accomplish?


U.S. caught in middle of spat

There's more than meets the eye to the frantic U.S. efforts Friday to talk Russia and U.S. ally Georgia out of war over an obscure mountain tract most Americans have never heard of.

A look at the map and your gas credit card bill shows why.


Getting our heads out of the clouds

He explains that what has been happening in the markets is part of an epic transformation of the global economy, involving a massive transfer of wealth to emerging economies amid the proliferation of complex financial instruments, whose role in this transfer has been poorly understood by market participants. In typical fashion, these policy makers, regulators and investment professionals spend too much time looking in the rear-view mirror when they should be closely watching the admittedly bumpy road to a very different future.


Canada says science backs up its Arctic claim

OTTAWA (AFP) - Canada says it has scientific proof of its territorial claims over a vast portion of the Arctic, amid debate between northern nations over sovereignty in the oil-rich region.

Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn said Friday joint research with Denmark had found that the undersea Lomonosov Ridge is attached to the North American and Greenland plates, directly challenging a Russian claim.


Oil Springs, Ont., celebrates 150 years as birthplace of petroleum industry

Charles Fairbank himself said he believes the world has reached "peak oil" _ the point at which half the world´s oil supply is gone, and the rest is rapidly declining. No one, his grandfather included, likely could have imagined society´s dependency on the product today, he said.

Fairbank, who just bought two electric bicycles (his wife drives a Prius), said he hopes the anniversary reminds people about the value of crude oil and the need to preserve it.

"Three tablespoons, for instance, is the work of a man for eight hours," he said.


Thieves now hot for used frying oil

As the price of restaurant grease climbs with the popularity of biodiesel, companies that refine used french-fry oil say thieves are getting to Columbus restaurants before they can.

"Within the last year and a half, it's kind of become the new copper," said Chad Derr, the Columbus sales manager for Griffin Industries, a Kentucky company that refines restaurant grease for use in a number of products, including biodiesel.


Bio-fuels, lighter craft to aid aviation industry energy use, greenhouse emissions

Alternative fuels are not new. In the 1950s, the U.S. Air Force considered using liquid hydrogen and methane to power gas turbines. Even cryogenics were evaluated, but all options were more costly than fossil fuels — and remain so today. However, since the end of the Cold War, petro-politics have taken a vastly different turn.


Words of warming

As the world hots up, so does the market for books about climate change. Tim Flannery, author of The Weather Makers, looks at the latest works on the crisis, and sizes up their solutions, from nuclear energy to genetically engineered trees.


Population paradox: Europe's time bomb

The magic figure for demographers is 2.1 births per couple. That, allowing for the fact that some girls die before they reach child-bearing age, is the figure at which a population replaces itself. In Europe the last time that fertility was above replacement level was in the mid-1960s. But now, for the first time on record, birthrates in southern and eastern Europe have dropped below 1.3 – well below the 1.5 which the United Nations has marked as the crisis point. If things continue the population there will be cut in half in just 45 years. In Italy, one recent survey put it at 1.2. Cities such as Milan and Bologna recorded less than 1, the lowest birthrates anywhere.


Global warming threatens indigenous peoples: FAO

ROME (AFP) - Global warming and limited access to land and other resources threaten many indigenous peoples, the UN food agency warned Friday.

"Indigenous peoples are among the first to suffer from increasingly harsh and erratic weather conditions, and a generalised lack of empowerment to claim goods and services," said indigenous peoples expert Regina Laub of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).


Humans cause climate change, US body accepts

AS THE Bush administration enters its final months, the US Climate Change Science Program has issued a report concluding that computer models do effectively simulate climate. It also accepts that the models show human activity was responsible for the rapid warming of the 20th century.

As some of you may have noticed, SuperG has activated the <pre> tags for everyone. They are for preformatted text. Put <pre> before the text you want to be preformatted, and </pre> after it.

It will keep the spacing exactly as you see it while you're typing your post. Including the monospaced font, which keeps things like columns of numbers lined up properly.

Testing testing.
http://www.ascii-art.de/ascii/mno/oilrig.txt


                /\
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              _|/\|_
             |______|
              |\/\/|
             \|/\/\|   .''`/:
     :\''.    \`'. |  ||  /  :
     : \ ||   |\ |||  || /    o
     j _\||__/__\||_\_||/___
       |___________________|
        |  |   |   |   |  |
  ~~~~~~|~~|~~~|~~~|~~~|~~|~~~~~~tre


Ta.
Go on, give us font now ;-)

All right, kids. You can test it by using "preview." No need to actually post it.

Preview quit working for me a couple of weeks ago.
Two different pc's, operating sys and providers too.

I think preview quit working correctly when the up/down voting arrows were added.

Have you two let SuperG know?

He's not psychic. He can't fix problems if he doesn't know they exist.

Preview works fine. But you can't post after you preview - the POST button on the Preview page does not work.

But you can copy your text after you Preview, hit the back button, paste, and then Post.

I've emailed support with the comments above.

Please don't be too harsh. The picture is cute.

And it's even on topic.

What I don't want is 50 billion other examples of ASCII art posted as "tests."

Is the modifications by Prof Goose the reason why TOD was down for a while today?

PG is not the one who does the tech stuff. SuperG is our web admin, and he made the change.

And no, this was not the reason TOD was down for so long last night. SuperG said it was a malicious attack. Bot-driven, and probably not personal. Just hackers looking for vulnerable servers. Ours isn't, but the traffic was enough to take the site down temporarily.

Hackers worry me. Saw a programme on Australian TV a few nights ago where some patriotic Chinese hackers are working out how to disable the West. Programme said there were several hundred thousand of them in hacking clubs and supposedly they disabled the power supply in North East US a year or so ago.
Guess the olympic games were boring to watch so they made their own fun.

These days, most hackers aren't doing it for fun. They're doing it for profit.

Interesting...the PC I'm on right now got it's first ever virus quarantined and removed by Norton AV last night as well.

i quit the window's world a long time ago. viva la gentoo :P

Monthly Averages of World Oil Production (Crude plus Condensate), With Monthly Average Spot Price:

Month &   Monthly Avg       12-Month Avg      Monthly Avg
Year      Oil Production    Oil Production    Spot Price
          Thousand bbl/day  Thousand bbl/day  USD
Jan-07    72,823            73,410             $54.51
Feb-07    73,066            73,366             $59.28
Mar-07    73,007            73,331             $60.44
Apr-07    73,249            73,308             $63.98
May-07    72,770            73,229             $67.49
Jul-07    72,905            73,136             $74.12
Aug-07    72,262            73,016             $72.36
Sep-07    73,073            72,988             $79.91
Oct-07    73,726            72,985             $85.80
Nov-07    73,434            72,988             $94.77
Dec-07    73,913            73,050             $91.69
Jan-08    73,991            73,147             $92.97
Feb-08    74,176            73,240             $95.39
Mar-08    74,286            73,346            $105.45
Apr-08    73,901            73,401            $112.58
May-08    74,481            73,543            $125.40

Source: US Energy Information Administration, July 2008 International Petroleum Monthly and Petroleum Navigator.

It works! Yeah! :o)

-best,

Wolf in YVR BC

If you can't get it up after 3.5 years, you've peaked :(

Does everyone who knows about these matters agree that those figures are accurate?

That is about the most easily read, concise, convincing argument for Peak Oil that I have seen yet.

Are there any remaining unknown unknowens?

The oil production numbers are often revised. From what I understand, the EIA data is among the best that can be easily accessed (approximately free). How accurate the production figures really are is difficult to ascertain.

Given that the recent crude-oil price spike to ~$133/bbl (WTI) average for Jun & Jul has occurred on a world oil production "plateau" and indeed may have happened during a slight upswing in production, one is left wondering what the price response will be when global production starts to decline. According to WT, the recent price rise is perhaps largely due to a "bidding war" over declining net exports. Net exports would likely decline even faster with diminishing production rates. Thus, sharply higher prices can be anticipated.

In regards to the data, I wonder how many of us on TOD will ever see Peak Oil in the "rear-view mirror." At a minimum, three to five years of production declines would likely be required to prove peak. It's an open question as to wether-or-not any of the agencies that provide oil production figures will still be functional five years after peak, and, if they are still operating, if the data will be freely accessible. There's also the potential for data manipulation (for the conspiracy-minded among us :o) In any event, what this means is that when Peak Oil has/is occurred/ing is largely a personal judgment based on the available information.

-best,

Wolf in YVR BC

I wonder how many of us on TOD will ever see Peak Oil in the "rear-view mirror."

You can already see 2 underlying peaks bounding the crude oil plateau:

Fig 1c: a peak in 2005
Fig 1d: a peak of hitherto growing countries shaping up now

I posted the graphs here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4386#comment-391842

It's an open question as to wether-or-not any of the agencies that provide oil production figures will still be functional five years after peak, and, if they are still operating, if the data will be freely accessible.

In that case the peak will have become self-evident anyway, even without looking at statistics.

I would disagree that these numbers, by themselves, constitute a convincing argument for Peak Oil. One only has to ask whether oil production has ever plateaued like this before. Reviewing the historical production numbers in the Energy Export Databrowser one sees that world oil production spent the first half of the 1980's in retreat and only regained the 1980 highs by the end of the decade:


Discrepancy between consumption and production represents the uncertainty in the numbers.

The early 1980's were years of major economic and political upheaval throughout the world accompanied by huge jumps in the price of oil. This combination caused a noticeable decline in the amount of oil consumed and, hence, produced.

Today we are once again in a period of major economic and political upheaval accompanied by huge jumps in the price of oil. It is conceivable, though I expect unlikely, that demand for oil could actually decline below current production capacity with a concomitant decline in oil prices. Such a development would cause many to disregard the message of Peak Oil if the argument for it is only based on production numbers or price.

So no. To me 17 months of bound-to-be-revised production numbers do not constitute a convincing or reliable argument. More information about historical trends in discovery, total production, production per well and national and per capita consumption rates are needed to make a scientifically rigorous argument that the availability of oil is about to decline. Taken together, these trends make what I consider to be a very convincing argument that cannot be discounted by a single month's or even year's increase in production or decrease in price.

Making the data behind these historical trends easily accessible is what I'm trying to do with the databrowser.

Happy Exploring!

-- Jon

"More information about historical trends in discovery...."

er...... discoveries have been declining more or less continuously since about the '80's.

Elwood made the point about discoveries, let me make the point about inventories and surplus. Oil **production** could decline because people were conserving, CAFE standards in the US had jumped and a lot of people wanted economical cars.

Most importantly, it could decline because there was a very large gap between production and consumption. Oil went to $10 dollars because OPEC had little discipline and worked against itself, the North Sea was producing a lot and Alaska was ramping up.

None of those things are true today. This plateau reflects maximum capacities being reached, not oversupply.

This is all pretty self-evident, I'd think, and should not be ignored while you seek your data.

Cheers

Canada's tough talk over the Arctic is laughable and tragic.

Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn said Friday joint research with Denmark had found that the undersea Lomonosov Ridge is attached to the North American and Greenland plates, directly challenging a Russian claim.

The Russian bear is playing hardball these days. The Beijing Olympics is a backdrop to some pretty serious geo-politics.

Which begs the question, could Canada even challenge the Kremlin to a snowball fight and win?

Sigh... oh bring back the glory days of 1972 and the world of Canada-Russia Hockey. At least Canada had backbone then, even if it was sometimes focussed on skates.

http://www.1972summitseries.com/SimcoeReformer/The%20Country%20Goes%20Wi...

What is being missed in the cacphony of "it's mine" claims are the following points:

1)The voices of conservationists are being virtually ignored.
2)Is is not certain by any means that the basins hold large qauntities of economically revoverable hydrocarbons.
3)The technical cahllenges of drilling in such an inhospitable place hav not yet been fully addressed

To me it's a ll a big rush to the unknown. Hydrocarbons 15+years away, at best? Maybe in 15+ years time we really will be desperate!

Marco.

Ya, no backbone. Bunch of chicken sh-ts. How short is the American memory, and how tragic.

Most Americans think WWII was five years from 1941 to 1945. Sorry, but Canada was in there kicking some serious Nazi butt starting in 1939. And, Canada trained up the U.S. special forces prior to 1941 in covert training camps in Kingston. But that's ancient history.

I guess Canadians are such terrible whusses that the country is routinely ranked as the best country in the world to live - or in the top three- far ahead of the U.S. What hasn't been made clear in U.S. adolescent foreign policy is that if you have to make your point at the end of a gun, you've already lost.

The Natural Resources Ministry is simply countering the geological claims made by Russia and nothing more. Who ever mentioned anything about chest thumping, sabre rattling or aggression? Are you that devolved?

I guess we'll just run home and hide behind mommy's apron while taking all that natural gas and oil with us. Like I've said before, be nice to your neighbours, they've got you by the short ones.

And don't even ask about water...

It's all well and good to be progressive, intellectual, and "above" resorting to violence when times are good. You get to spend money on stuff other than the military, and pacifism sounds ever so nice and civilized.

But when an army shows up at your door, or sailing through "your" offshore fields, then what? Just because you don't resort to violence is no guarantee that other won't.

Current Events review. Canada happens to be in Afghanistan and losing soldiers too. You know, the other war. The one that was supposed to be about going after the terrorists responsible for 9/11. I will not stand by while someone else calls Canada "laughable".

We have been mostly responsible for keeping the peace around here. We were the only ones in Rwanda trying to avert the genocide while the other countries stood by the side lines because there wasn't oil or precious metals at stake. If anyone is feeling pangs of shame, they're not misplaced. But where it really hits home is some Americans wear Canadian flags when traveling abroad.

While living and working in S. American I would occasionally get the snide derision of "Gringo Rico". They didn't think I could speak Spanish (which is a natural assumption given the behaviour I saw from a few Americans on the project). I would respond with "No estoy Gringo. Estoy Canadiense." Then their faces would light up and I would have amigos wherever I went. I was known as the Canadiense, and people were happy to make the distinction.

What also hasn't been learned obviously is all the American aggression, interfering and military build up has, in the end, been very counter productive. Just look at the real cost of gasoline for Americans once direct military spending for oil assets and transportation are included. $8/gal, that's around the true cost. Great investment, real wise.

And the Ruskies can sail through our off shore fields all they like. We might even invite them in for coffee or tea.

Touche'. I actually like Canada and Canadians, though I did get laughed at a bit while doing my best to manage even basic pleasantries in French during a visit (heck, I figured I'd get some points for trying at least!). It'd been 20 years since French II after all!

I think Rwanda and Darfur were massive missed opportunities for meaningful intervention, and such examples are largely why I think our civilization will crash. If the UN can't solve battles involving primitive weapons how can it handle superpower struggles?

i met some canadians back in the late '60's and they were jealous that the american youth got to fight in a war. just macho teenage glorification of war, i didnt hold it against them.

I usually have a fleur de lis when abroad, and when questioned, say that it is the symbol of New Orleans. No problems EXCEPT when I was mistaken for a French Royalist !

Best Hopes for an end of the Bourbon Dynasty,

Alan

That is where all of things that GWB and the neocons are actively against come into play. Collective security, alliances, international law, United Nations.

You do exaggerate the abilities of military power. Oil infrastructure in particular is very fragile. See MEND in Nigeria.

I have seen "conservatives" make absurd claims about how easy it will be to clear the Straits of Hormuz from Iranian "interference", and even how easy it will be to take over their oil fields.

Alan

The problem is that global gov'ts (like the UN) suffer from the same issues a a nat'l gov't only worse -- corruption, vice, realpolitiking, lobbying, and popularity contests -- but on other people's dimes.

Destroying infrastructure is much easier than building it or protecting it, so diplomacy is the better path, but military deterrence is part of the equation as well. Still, my concern isn't our ability to accomplish diplomatic goals, but a growing fear that our world influence plan is just like our energy plan -- we really don't have one, and what we do have is a cobbled-up conglomeration of special interests without much cohesion or vision.

Please note that I put "conservatives" in quote marks.

And yes, some sort of deterrence is needed. And as Iran MAY have decided, and North Korea certainly has, teh easiest and most certain deterrence is nuclear weapons.

During WW II, the Swiss mined all the bridges and tunnels and would have destroyed all of the infrastructure before losing it. A "burnt earth" defense and deterrence. And one that works extremely well with oil infrastructure.

Alan

If you really think you need an army to protect your country, you have watched too much tv.

The only reason countries have (big) armies like they have today is that their government can go and bomb foreign countries and make a good tv appearance from it. And get reelected.

People don't need armies, governments need them. To get reelected.