DrumBeat: August 24, 2008
Posted by Leanan on August 24, 2008 - 9:07am
Topic: Miscellaneous
U.S. and Global Economies Slipping in Unison
Economic trouble has spread far beyond the United States to major countries in Europe and Asia, threatening American businesses with the loss of foreign sales and investment that have become increasingly vital to their sustenance.Only a few months ago, some economists still offered hope that robust expansion could continue in much of the world even as the United States slowed. Foreign investment was expected to keep replenishing American banks still bleeding from their disastrous bets on real estate and to provide money for companies looking to expand. Overseas demand for American goods and services was supposed to continue compensating for waning demand in the States.
Now, high energy prices, financial systems crippled by fear, and the decline of trading partners have combined to choke growth in many major economies.
Labor Day travelers opt for trains, buses
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More travelers will be crowding onto buses and trains for this Labor Day weekend, while car and airplane travel is expected to decline, according to a report released Friday by motorist group AAA.The bulk of Labor Day travelers - about 28.6 million people, or 83% of the total - are still expected to drive to their destinations, AAA said. But that's a 1.1% decrease in driving from last year.
Venezuela oil company PDVSA to open sports office
CARACAS, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA will open a sports office to train athletes after a lackluster Olympic performance, President Hugo Chavez said on Sunday, expanding PDVSA social efforts that already range from food sales to road repairs.PDVSA has become the financial engine of Chavez's self-styled socialist revolution, financing and carrying out a broad array of social programs that have made the leftist leader popular among the country's poor.
The overwhelming majority of Arctic oil and gas - 84 per cent - is located offshore, meaning energy explorers must brave everything from stormy seas to heaving ice shelves, massive icebergs, vicious winds and months of darkness. Energy companies are pushing the limits of offshore drilling technology to deal with such harsh conditions, but even at today's frothy energy prices, the risk might be too high in the near term for many players. "It's a long way from a desktop study on geological potential to producing reserves," said Pierre Alvarez, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.See also:
Part 1: 'A new line on the map'
Part 2: Tough talk taps into national pride
Dominicans fume over blackouts
SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic -- Gloom has descended over this Caribbean nation as Dominicans endure blackouts with such frequency and duration that tempers are flaring and the economy is foundering.With blackouts lasting as long as 18 hours in some areas, angry residents have taken to blocking streets with burning tires and stones in protest, and police have respondent with tear gas that have even hit homes.
In fuel-starved Nepal, filling tank is a full day's job
KATHMANDU (AFP) — How to get hold of petrol is one of the hottest topics in Nepal ever since its sole supplier, India, began refusing to sell fuel on credit a year ago to Nepal's state-run fuel monopoly, which owes it millions of dollars.The ensuing shortage has led to rationing and pump queues of several kilometres.
Suddenly, Sharing a Ride Looks Good
RANDI MITZNER watched in alarm as the cost of driving to work rose from $15 a week three years ago to $35, then $40. One day last spring, she had had enough. Ms. Mitzner, a senior director of human resources at Education and Assistance Corporation in Hempstead, popped the question to her co-worker Charlene Middleton: Want to drive in together?
Pakistan: Massive load-shedding as KESC faces 600MW supply shortfall
Massive power load-shedding plagued the lives of people in Karachi on Saturday due to the virtual breakdown and faulty working of the Karachi Electric Supply Company’s (KESC) power generation system.The electricity shortfall crossed the phenomenal 600 megawatts (MW) mark in the last 24 hours, causing continuous spells of power load-shedding in order to bridge the gap.
Pakistan refineries protest reduced products duties
KARACHI -- The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of Pakistan has rejected a claim by the country's refineries that they face loss under the reduced "deemed duty" (ad valorem surcharge) that they now are allowed to charge. ECC asked the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources to submit each refinery's financial results separately to determine the impact of the reduced-duty formula on the refineries.Pakistan's five refineries have a total refining capacity of 267,000 b/d. A sixth is under construction and expected to begin products production for export, in spring 2009. Four of the refineries meet the country's domestic market demand for petroleum products.
India: ‘Uranium mining vital for country’s power needs’
In a bid to meet the target of generating 20,000 MW of power from uranium by 2020, India is making a serious effort to roll out mining projects in Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka at a rapid pace.
Russia: Iran N-plant operational in '08
Iran's first Russian-built nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr will become operational by the end of 2008, Moscow says."Russia is seriously committed to completing and running Bushehr power plant in the shortest possible time," Russia's ambassador to Tehran, Alexander Sadovnikov, said Saturday.
Iran Says Designing New Nuclear Power Plant
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has chosen the site and started designing a new 360-megawatt nuclear power plant, a senior atomic official said in remarks published on Sunday.
Are we ready to deal with world food crisis?
Soaring world food prices have become a problem not only to developing countries but also to the superpowers.High fuel costs have resulted in higher agricultural costs. The drop in food stocks and using land meant for food production to produce biofuels are the other disturbing factors. The international community should help countries which are more prone and ensure some sort of relief for the poor.
Ron Paul: How Foreign Policy Affects Gas Prices
But how does foreign policy affect gas prices? One important factor is that oil on the world market has been priced in dollars exclusively since 1973. Only two leaders have gone against this arrangement – Saddam Hussein in 2000 and more recently Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with the recently opened Iranian Oil Bourse which trades in non-dollar currencies. But since oil is otherwise exclusively traded in dollars, this means that oil producers have vast amounts of assets held in dollars. Especially since the War on Terror and the PATRIOT Act, many oil-producing nations and banks are concerned the US government may freeze assets based on flimsy pretexts. This fear contributes to dollar weakness, and therefore also high oil prices.
World Bank increases fossil-fuel funding despite pledge
Once the new Tata Ultra Mega power plant in western India is fired up in 2012 and fully operational, it will become one of the world's 50 largest greenhouse-gas emitters. And the World Bank is helping make it possible.A year after World Bank President Robert Zoellick pledged to "significantly step up our assistance" in fighting climate change, the development institution is increasing its financing of fossil-fuel projects around the globe.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- -- Gasoline prices fell Sunday for the 38th straight day, bringing down the nationwide average in a motorist group survey by more than 42 cents overall.
New Zealand: Drivers to pay for oil shock
Motorists should pay more to drive cars - including more expensive car parks, and fees to use the roads - if New Zealand is to survive rising oil prices, a comprehensive new report says.The increased costs would be coupled with investment in public transport, tax breaks for fuel-efficient vehicles, laws requiring new developments to provide showers and lockers for walkers and bikers, improved urban design, and encouraging businesses to swap company cars for cash or bus subsidies.
Ragtag Insurgency Gains a Lifeline From Al Qaeda
Today, as Islamist violence wanes in some parts of the world, the Algerian militants — renamed Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb — have grown into one of the most potent Osama bin Laden affiliates, reinvigorated with fresh recruits and a zeal for Western targets.
At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic
ERICE, Sicily — This ancient hilltop town, rife with Roman, Greek, Norman and other influences, is hosting a very modern gathering: a conference on global risks like cyberterrorism, climate change, nuclear weapons and the world’s lagging energy supply.More than 120 scientists, engineers, analysts and economists from 30 countries were hunkered down here for the 40th annual conference on “planetary emergencies.” The term was coined by Dr. Antonino Zichichi, a native son and a theoretical physicist who has made Erice a hub for experts to discuss persistent, and potentially catastrophic, global challenges.
The participants were not particularly optimistic. They presented data showing that the boom in biofuels was depleting Southeast Asian rain forests, that “bot herders” — computer hackers for hire — were hijacking millions of computers, and that the lack of progress over handling nuclear waste was both hampering the revival of nuclear energy and adding to terrorism risks.
THEY are the arteries of the world, the waterways that keep our global economy alive.Two-thirds of all seaborne trade passes through these six narrow choke points, and half of the world's daily diet of oil.
Close just one down, for just one day, and the heartbeat of the industrial world would falter.
Block it for a month, and entire economies could collapse.
Nothing screams collective failure like the complete lack of a national energy policy. I find it inexcusable that it has been more than 30 years since the first energy crisis, but no administration – Democrat or Republican – attempted to plan for our nation's energy future. Nothing is more critical to our nation's very economic or political survival than energy independence. We have known that for a century, but yet done little.
Inflation Delivers a Blow to Vietnam’s Spirits
With inflation rising to 27 percent last month — the highest in Asia — and food prices 74 percent above those a year ago, Vietnam is suffering its first serious downturn since it moved from a command economy to an open market nearly two decades ago.Last month the government raised the price of gasoline by 31 percent to an all-time high of 19,000 dong ($1.19) per liter (or roughly $4.50 a gallon). Diesel and kerosene prices rose still higher. The country’s fledgling stock market, which had been booming a year ago, has fallen in volume by 95 percent and is at a virtual standstill.
Squeezed on all sides, people are cutting back on food, limiting travel, looking for second jobs, delaying major purchases and waiting for the cost of a wedding to go down before marrying.
As designers debuted their autumn 2008 collections on the runway earlier this year, a trend towards conservatism and the use of sober colours – including an overwhelming predilection for black – rapidly emerged. Now, as the season approaches and clothes land on showroom floors, a new undercurrent is welling up: echoes of the energy crisis are rippling through the fashion world, resulting in a raft of oily-finish fabrics from shiny-treated silk to liquid latex, glossy vinyl and other synthetics.
Americans think worst of 2008 oil spike over: poll
The poll of 1,089 likely voters found that just under 13 percent thought gasoline prices would rise a lot between now and the end of the year. About one quarter thought prices would rise a little, while one in three thought they would drop a little and 18 percent said they would stay about the same....Pollster John Zogby said the swift rise in fuel prices earlier this year had fundamentally changed U.S. consumer behavior, and a pullback below $115 per barrel was not sufficient to alter that.
"The lines are not forming to buy Hummers," he said, referring to the big luxury trucks that are notorious for their poor fuel mileage.
Opec set to cut oil supplies after weakening demand sparks sharp price fall
OIL cartel Opec is expected to reduce supplies next month following a sharp fall in crude prices on Friday.
Thirst for oil feeds Oman innovation
In Saudi Arabia, Oman's neighbor, oil production still can be as easy as jamming pipe into the ground and pumping up the oil, or standing back to let it gush forth from the pressure of the reservoir.But for Oman, "easy oil is over," said Khalid Jawad al-Khabouri, a petroleum engineer at the headquarters of Oman's state-controlled oil company in Muscat, the capital.
At Harweel and several of the country's complex, aging fields, Oman is going after oil the hard way. More than any country along the Persian Gulf, Oman provides a preview of the future of oil.
With Dubai's oil running out, the energy majors arrive
Since Dubai oil production peaked in 1991, the central question concerning energy matters has not been about production, but how much it needs to fuel its robust economy.
Georgia official: Train on fire after hitting mine
TBILISI, Georgia - A train carrying oil products hit a land mine near Georgia's strategic central city of Gori on Sunday, causing at least two tanker cars to burst into flames, a government official said.A television report however said 10 tanker cars were on fire about 6 miles east of Gori. Television footage showed large clouds of black smoke billowing from the site.
Oil and gas traveling through Georgia was supposed to free Europe from Russia. Not anymore....For now, this is a practical risk only east of the Atlantic. The pipelines through Georgia mostly feed Europe, and energy analysts don't see any direct threat to the American market. But oil prices, which had been declining, spiked again late last week on the news. And while no one believes energy was the main motive for Russia's incursion, it surely played some part in Moscow's thinking on the region. "When Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan was constructed," says Costello, "you had a much weaker Russia that was more amenable to an energy dialogue. While Russia didn't like the existence of a pipeline that bypassed its territory, Moscow had accepted its existence. Now we're in a situation where Moscow sees the situation in zero-sum terms. A resurgent Russia will be less happy to see routes across Georgia expanded."
US warship docks in Black Sea port
The first US warship to bring aid to Georgia arrived in the country's main Black Sea port of Batumi on Sunday, in a gesture of support for the ex-Soviet republic in its conflict with Russia.The USS McFaul, a guided missile destroyer, is loaded with humanitarian aid including bottled water, blankets, hygiene kits and baby food for the tens of thousands displaced by the confrontation that erupted on Aug. 7-8 over Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region.
The Russian power play on oil, natural gas reserves
Russia today has become more powerful relative to Europe than it has been since Napoleon, a situation that is all but certain to make the Europeans less willing than the United States to challenge Russian policies. Energy may accomplish for the Russians what the Soviet and Russian armies by themselves could not.
Iran to double oil reserve capacity
LONDON (IranMania) - Iran plans to start construction of four one-million oil storage tanks in Kharg Island in a bid to double its oil reserve capacity, PressTV reported.
China's Sinopec H1 net falls 77 pct on soaring crude
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Top Asian oil refiner Sinopec Corp posted a 77 percent fall in first-half earnings as soaring crude prices and caps on state-set fuel prices pushed its refining business into the red, despite government subsidies.
Ag secretary: Biofuels good for farmers, security
MITCHELL, S.D. - Expanded production of renewable biofuels promises newfound riches for farmers but also improved national security, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said Thursday at the Dakotafest farm show."They are here to stay. They are part of our energy solutions," he said at a forum with Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.
"If we're going to cut our dependence on foreign suppliers, we must be committed to building this new energy portfolio."
Conference splits over deforestation emission cut
ACCRA (AFP) - Trading carbon emission rights between developed and developing nations caused a split Sunday between delegates at protracted international climate change talks in Ghana."The issue of reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries under the carbon market mechanism has been a stormy one among delegates and observers," Nicole Wilke, head of German delegation told AFP on the sidelines of the UN framework convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference in Accra.
“Transition Sillyness?”
Two days ago, Leanan posted a link to John Michael Greer’s Archdruid Report A Tempo for Change. Greer stated: “we can expect to witness economic, social, and political turmoil beyond anything the industrial world has experienced in living memory.” One poster, Expat, called this "a bit too silly!"
Well yesterday another link was posted that dwelt a little deeper with "sillyness". It was called Peak Oil and Future History. The author, Peter Goodchild, referred to what he called “Transition Sillyness”.
Goodchild took the opposite view of the Expat, and many others, who believe peak oil will happen, or is happening now, but see it as something that we will all survive with not too much pain, at least in our lifetime. Goodchild reports:
Ahhh, the Big Picture! I have been preaching “The Big Picture” for years. I have posted, time and time again, that we are 1. deep into overshoot and the world can not much longer support such a population load even with fossil fuel and 2. few, if any, possess the necessary skills required to survive in a post fossil fuel world.
But even Goodchild is a little too optimistic:
One future variable that I believe very likely is that world oil exports will drop to near nothing in a decade or so. This will be due largely to hording, rampant nationalism that insist “Our oil be kept for ourselves”. There will also likely be resource wars as well as piracy on the high seas. What Goodchild sees for the executive’s grandchildren, I see for the general population of many nations with virtually no fossil fuels themselves.
But even in countries with some fossil fuels, the US, China, India, etc. the situation will be fare more dire than most realize. Two huge problems will arise. 1. as Goodchild points out, the land without the aid of fossil fuel fertilizer and farming tools, can support only a fraction of the population. And 2. a very large percentage of the non-farm population, unable to produce products to be bought by the masses, will be unemployed. They will have no money to buy food, especially at the exorbitant prices food will demand in a world of sever food scarcity. Two thirds less fossil fuel will employ two thirds fewer people. Goodchild's "modern executive" will likely be unemployed and desperately hungry.
Ron Patterson
Darwinian:
Under the circumstances, what would you recommend? Assuming you are correct, I cannot imagine any set of actions which would avert a total breakdown of society,mass poverty, and death all around.
After the mass dieoff, will any semblance of civilization ever be constructed out of the rubble? Perhaps there will be some island (not underwater) somewhere where people can fashion a subsistence level of living.
On the bright side, as mass dieoff gets into full swing, housing will be ultra cheap. Perhaps someone could write a post outlining the bright side of the coming apocalypse.
Anyway, nations everywhere should assume the worst given the current population and projected trends. One policy recommendation coming out of your world view would seem to be draconian population reduction everywhere. We could start with mass sterilization, abortion, and infanticide. Or does "life" trump future poverty, disease, mass war, and mass starvation? Those religiously oriented people still pumping out three, four, and more children tout the sacredness of life. Well, under your scenario, how sacred will life seem in one or two decades. Life will have the sacredness of warm spit.
What would I recommend? I have always recommended that one get together with like minded people and form kind of a "farming community" with all the houses in one place with everyone armed to the teeth. But even if you did this, what would be your chances of being among the survivors? They would be higher no doubt, but still probably not all that great.
Bottom line Tstreet, there is simply no way of knowing how the collapse will pan out. There is no way of knowing just how fast things will collapse but I think most people are way too optimistic. Of course they are. It is simply in our nature to see the bright side of things and expect the best. I am reminded of Monty Python's "The Life of Brian". As they were all being crucified they were all singing "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life."
I agree with creating communities of small farms, and no reason not to have some defensive capability in place.. but 'Armed to the teeth' starts painting a self-fulfilling prophesy. I think what you do to start preempting the likelihood of roving bands and worse, town to town (MicroKingdom) conflicts is to establish trading ties and develop 'community to community' diplomatic tools for heading off the growth of any kind of 'Warlord Society'..
If any part of Life of Brian comes to mind here for me, it would be the People's front of Judea battling in the imperial halls against the Judean People's Front for the honor of, what, kidnapping the Roman Legate or something?, while the Roman Guards stood on the side of the hall and watched them decimate each other. Feudal Futility..
'For life is quite absurd
And death's the final word
You must always face the curtain with a bow.
Forget about your sin - give the audience a grin
Enjoy it - it's your last chance anyhow.' -Eric Idle
(ps, while 'blind optimism' was the joke, it wasn't the entire message of the song, was it?)
Bob
The average global income is about $900 US a year. A guesstimate would be that the average income of a person reading your post is approx $60000 US per year (only 67X greater than the global average). You talk about the effects of oil depletion on the average person, but there aren't very many average humans (measuring in income or wealth) reading you or Greer. Rising energy and food costs cannibalize from the bottom up, which is why the elite are unconcerned generally.
your point is valid but the level of income needed in america to be a 'normal citizen' is way higher than in other poorer countries so the ratio is far lower than 67X
True, but "we" aren't mostly average humans (in terms of income or wealth). Anyone on this site that has even $200000 US (after liquidating all assets) could put it in a few Cayman banks-this would throw off at least $10000 a year in income-which would be more than enough to live in a lot of these poorer countries. Supposedly $48000 US per year puts one at the top 1% level in terms of annual income-my point is that we are living on an extremely poor planet and most of us are closer to the top of the pyramid than the bottom.
A friend once said that that there are two kinds of revolutionaries: Marxist and Gandhian.
What Darwinian is suggesting sounds Gandhian - if we take away the weapons, which, after all, define the Marxist revolutions. Again, the people with the average global income can not afford weapons, unless we are talking about sticks and stones.
Astroboy, I am not a revolutionary. I am proposing no revolutionary action whatsoever, Marxist or Gandhian. If I thought there were some revolutionary action that would fix things then I would be the world's strongest revolutionary. But the world is deep into overshoot, and no revolutionary action whatsoever will fix that. Sadly, nature will just have to take its course.
Even your $900 average is skewed. Most people on the planet daily experience energy and food shortages. Peak Oil nor Climate Change won't change this dynamic much; exacerbate it, yes; but change the basic dynamic, no. The people to be most effected will be those with the most prosthetic devices enabling them to enjoy the last months of the "Age of Exuberence." They/we have a very steep and tall cliff to topple over, while most of the planet's people are already at the cliff's bottom. As for the elite being "unconcerned generally," that is probably true due to ignorance, but their position depends totally on the ability of the lower classes to support them. Peak Oil and Climate Change will withdraw this support, and many current millionaires will be no better off than those already at the cliff's bottom. So, in the longterm, the elite are just as vulnerable as everyone else--especially WRT Climate Change as many have assetes that will be erased by sea level rise.
Optimism was possible during the Great Depression because it was a crisis existing during very visible abundance of food and energy, AND the federal government wasn't yet owned by Big War, and was thus far more responsive to the crisis. I do not beleive the same will be said of the current crisis, which has yet to be recognized as one by most people. For one, future availability of energy is already seen as iffy, and rising costs for food amid rising unemployment and declining expectations along with the recent examples of toxic food reaching the market show food security to be iffy, too. So the specter of Shortage is already present in people's minds. Current polls showing less than 10% approval for Congress and somewhat equal disdain for BushCo reveal that most of the citizenry understand, albeit at a superficial level, the federal government is no longer responsible or responsive. So it seems appropriate to loom for the coming signs of the Great Despair.
+1 greenie for your sentiment.
At the beginning of the Great Depression (so-called), the U.S. was at the pinnacle of its potential, and that power would be realized over the next three decades.
Now it looks more like the 4th century than 20th century
http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case16.html
It is hard for old guys to be anything other than sad at the opportunities squandered. It is harder yet to generate enough energy to get out and protest this nonsense any more -- the criminals have beaten us down for good.
The Alans are now the Ossetians that do not want to be part of Georgia.
Alan
Does "Ossetia" mean "fromBigEasy" in some Eastern European language? ;-)
whose payroll are they on now? Not the Romans', it would seem.
Putin's
OK, smart ass, following your "logic" the Kosovo Albanians are on NATO's payroll. NATO even held joint military exercises with the KLA in northern Albania before the 1999 attack on Serbia. So much for all of your "humanitarianism" and professed belief in the "freedom of choice" and "democracy".
Never,I am at 53,and getting sorta old.I see the opportunities lost+,be I see many on the horizon,that,If the knowledge is not lost,may work society in ways we can only dream
I think the next great step will be biological,as that science can in many ways be done with smaller energy inputs than others I am aware of...and yes I remember the threads discussing this.
We may have a dark age ahead of us as a result of overshoot,but when we humans get our act together I still have faith we will reach the stars....ad astra
Hold that thought!
It will take huge effort to clean out the criminal element that runs our world. Of course, it can be done if people will only wake up. What will it take to throw off the blinders? Not force of reason, that is for sure. And efforts for reform are so often co-opted by the criminals and turned to their advantage.
One way I shut people up about my heritage, and that of everyone else, is to say I'm a German, that is a Spaniard, a region settled by/given to the Visigoths, that leads into a discussion/admission that we are all mutts, ethnicly, and then occasionally I end the conversation by bringing up the African Eve hypothesis that forces us all to admit we are black African at our core. This really twists some folks's knickers as they have no rebuttal.
My kin were citus and vineyard ranchers in Southern California before, during, and after the Depression; and I've collected interesting stories from them, although I wish I'd asked more questions before most of them passed away. I made the period a special point of study as I pursued my History degree, because you cannot understand why/where we are today without understanding that period, which for me also includes WW2.
Although I won't concede victory to "the criminals," I do admit they currently have the upper hand, but I do see their demise. Because they want all for themselves and refuse to be cooperative, they will eventually die off and become relics. The depletion rate of fossil fuels even provides a timeline. The coming paradigm change means evolve/adapt to the new circumstances and norms needed to accomodate them or die. A primary factor will be the change from competition to cooperation, a cultural aspect that the US and most OECD countries are illequiped to handle. One of the most famous songs from the Depression Era is Billy Holiday's God Bless the Child, but few today recognize its great satirical aspect. I find comfort in taking the long view and can imagine a great deal of positive change 5 generations (100 years) from now. In the meantime, I'll go fishing and grow my garden, while enjoying one of the best palces to be for the coming change--Oregon.
Although I'm better prepared than most people, my goal has been to buy time. As someone noted down thread, stuff is going to break and wear out. My preparations are a window of opportunity that permits me to make rational choices (I hope) as things devolve.
One point I have made before is to forget about "self-sufficiency" and, instead, focus upon "self-reliance." Sure, things like alternative energy systems may be important but, equally important, will be useful skill sets.
Todd
Great insights Todd.
Todd-- what do you include in the list of useful skills?
Gardening
Farming
Animal husbandry
Fiber production
Bee keeping
Food preservation
View,
I'd certainly include all of those and add a lot more. Some may seem out of place if things collapse but I believe will be useful non-the-less:
Engine mechanics (If push comes to shove I'll convert some of our stuff to wood gas)
Carpentry
Masonry
Plumbing
Electrical (AC/DC)
Hunting/gathering including fishing and trapping
Butchering
Welding/blacksmithing
Roofing
Tanning/sewing/weaving
Timber felling
Alternative medicine/EMT training
That's enough for now and far more than anyone can be fully proficient in. My point is that many of these skills (and the ones you listed) are "normal" for country people like myself. The only option in many cases is to muddle through. While a person may not have journeyman skill levels, they will not usually make serious mistakes.
And, of course, many of these have sub-specialties such as food preservation - hot water bath canning, pressure canning, dehydration, smoking, potting, juicing, etc.
Todd
This is a long list of skills for one person to be proficient at! I, for one, will be conducting a scavenger hunt for new friends with these skills. Bartering is really an underrated system ;) In all seriousness though, are we not talking about an eventual return to villages where you have a blacksmith, a butcher, a baker, and a candlestick maker (trying not to lose my seriousness!)
God forbid we have lives without one stop shopping...
"Things are always the best they possibly could be in this best of all possible worlds".
Prof. Pangloss, from Voltaire's "Candide, or Optimism"
There was a certain logic to Dr. Pangloss' optimism:
"They can't get any worse, and they won't get any better, clearly, it's the best of all possible worlds."
The only problem with that sort of "optimism" is that things most assuredly will get a lot worse.
In the immortal words of Molly Ivins:
"Texas liberals are different from other liberals...Texas liberals know it can get worse"
Except, that line of thinking lets far too many people in positions of power and responsibility get off the hook far too easy. The truth of the matter is that very different decisions could have been made by various key people at various points in the past, and those decisions could have resulted in a scenario that would look far less dire and stark than the one we are facing. Voltaire's whole point was that the world truly made life far more miserable for more people than things had to be, due to many people behaving badly when they could have behaved better. Realism might require recognizing that people do act that way, and thus thus the world is that way, but it need not require believing that people had no choice, and thus no responsibility, for their actions.
Well yes, Voltaire was all about satire.
And people do have choices, and choices have consequences. However, at a certain level, the consequences for criminal action are remunerative to the criminals, and the mass of people seem to accept that as "God's will" or some such. What is that all about?
Voltaire described it and satirized it -- I don't think he had any better idea than I do how to break out of it.
For years now I've made it known to my family and friends that I wish this song to be played at my eulogy.
I suspect that population decline will come to pass not in one fell swoop but through a number of episodes. Famines are likely to sweep across various regions; rising sea levels and various natural disasters will take their toll; natural and bio-engineered pathogens will sweep through human populations and through fields and livestock herds; and then there is crime, civil disorder, wars, and nuclear holocaust. We'll see the global population knocked down notch by notch, year after year. The future is likely to be most distressing and unpleasant, I'm afraid.
Along your lines, one reason I anticipate a fast crash is because of the complexity and interlocking nature of society. In many ways, it is similar to the situation of cascading cross defaults that were posited pre-Y2K. This is visible to some extent as credit has been drying up for businesses and some credit-worthy individuals.
On top of that, there will be a significant time lag before people recognize that the old paradigm is dead and come to grips with the new reality; one aspect of which is that Humpty Dumpty can't be put back together again.
Todd
There is a longer post below, but this is a good point to interject my major objection to so much of the American based thinking - 'recognize that the old paradigm is dead and come to grips with the new reality.'
What, the one where the farm fields around the town use minimal chemical inputs because of the ground water protection rules? That is decades old, here. Does this mean that the farmers that have been steadily reducing their chemical inputs for years - it is part of that horrible German regulatory burden (can't find the link - in an old Drumbeat somewhere) - will end up not using any any inputs? Essentially like the organic farmers, including a couple around here, whose output is still growing, under government planning that said organic farming should supply 20% of Germany's food by ca. 2015 (don't trust it really, but that was the planning at the time, and to my knowledge, it hasn't been altered significantly).
The U.S. will fracture, and since it has been a couple of years since I first used that phrase, let me add, quite possibly fracture horribly, but the U.S. is not the world.
I refuse to believe that the rest of the world, with centuries of experience in functioning (and yes, that functioning tended to be pretty awful for those at the bottom) without oil, are simply going to turn their backs on knowledge accumulated over that time, and collapse the way some Americans think the U.S. is destined to. An American collapse I have no real problem agreeing with, by the way, looking at it from the outside. It is just I have yet to be convinced of a global collapse at this point - in part, because a lot of the rest of the world never followed the U.S. into its post-industrial, service based, consumer reliant future. To put it a bit differently - the only 'malls' I live near are downtown in the city's center, and are best reached using the train.
Or to put it even more differently - nobody in Germany, and I mean nobody in the sense of 99.99%, would think that destroying orchards to build a few houses would be good for the economy, or that plowing under farm fields for a new shopping center is the correct choice for growth, or that wiping out a watershed to increase tax revenues is a simple trade off. And yet, that is what Americans have done to themselves. Of course it will collapse - a statement so obvious that it is hard to get Germans to even understand how the Northern Virginia I grew up in was 'developed' without them thinking I am crazy. The craziness was not on my part, I assure them.