There seems to be disagreement between latest storm surge estimates and the latest track estimates. The storm surge map shows the eye landing east of Houston while most models are still forcasting landfall on the west side of the bay.

As you have suggested, slight variations make large differences in the outcome.

Anyone knows to what extent electricity is back in NOLA refineries? Could this lead to simultaneous shutdown of some LA and TX refining capacity?

( DJ ) 09/12 09:14AM DJ USCG: Freighter With Petroleum Coke Stranded In Path Of Ike HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--The Coast Guard says a freighter hauling petroleum coke and carrying 22 people is stranded about 90 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas in the path of Hurricane Ike. The freighter is so far offshore that only way to help the crew might be to send in helicopters, but the strong winds make that possibility difficult. The Coast Guard hasn't unveiled its plan to rescue the crew as yet.

Zoinks Scoobs!

Already slashing over the galveston wall, at low tide, and the storm is 200+ miles away.

I see on the weather channel that nature is already selecting gene pools for termination. "Hey kids, climb on that wall and I'll take a picture of the hurricane washing you out to sea".

At still no shock in the oil markets, even with the dollar dropping.

Post by Rockman on #3 thread that deserves reposting, IMO (emphasis added)*

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4517#comment-406549

It is starting to look like the worse case scenario for Galveston. At 0830 today street flooding has already began with Ike still almost 200 miles away. You've probably saw the waves crashing over the sea wall. Most don't know the sea wall is only along the Gulf side of town. The channel from the Gulf cuts right thru the downtown area. There is no sea wall there so if the water level rises 20' then all the homes in G will have 20' of water in them.

As far as Houston goes I suspect a majority has not evac'd. Highways were full till midnight last night but nothing like Rita. Most of Houston will be hit with at least minimum force hurricane winds. We're relocating near downtown to a relatively wind protected area. I'll post some updates as long as elect/cable works. Looks like we'll have major and fairly long term elect outage: lots of trees in Houston.

Back to the storm surge: A certainty that all the refiners on the H ship channel and Galv bay will have at least 10' of water in them. Maybe more for the ones close to the bay. After growing up in N.O. I'm not too worried about long term flood problems: as soon as Ike moves off the water will drain fairly quickly back into the Gulf. The folks farther north may have more problems: 10" to 15" of quick rain will cause major flooding up there which won't drain fast....very low gradient in those rivers. Eventually it might cause some secondary flooding in H as it drains south.

*Even though he has said unkind things about exploration geologists in the past

This e-mail came at work yesterday afternoon from the office park management:

All

We have just received notification from a very reliable source that many of the refineries in Texas are being shut down due to Hurricane IKE. It is recommended that you fill your gas tanks today.

Please share this with those that may not be on our distribution list.

So the (well-founded?) rumors are going around town, although no notice by the local news media. As a consequence, my car-pool buddy says she had to go to three gas stations last night before finding one that had gas and a reasonably short line. Is this the start of Simmons' "Run on the Bank?"

Thanks to all of you spread who spread around this and other work The Oil Drum around to your friends, the web, and to other discussion boards. We do appreciate it.

Also, we're on twitter: http://twitter.com/theoildrum

That's one way of looking at it. A hurricane with a very tight pressure gradient in the vicinity of the core is likely to have much faster winds, but with a narrower reach (generally speaking, when the pressure gradient is doubled, the average wind speed also doubles). Ike currently has a central pressure similar to what Charlie (2004) had at landfall (941 mb for Charlie). In the case of Charlie, the region of very low pressure was much smaller; therefore surface pressure gradients were much higher (meaning higher winds, but in a smaller region). Here's a rough diagram to illustrate the difference:

-best,

Wolf

Here is the prognosis for the Eastern US:

http://www.trforum.org/journal/2005sum/article8.php

Figure 3 shows the primary routes which deliver refined products to the southeastern states and the Atlantic coast. Colonial Pipeline and Plantation Pipeline are the two overland routes which deliver U.S. Gulf Coast products to these areas. The transit time from Houston to the New York Harbor market varies from 14-24 days, depending on the volume of business. The primary competition is tanker cargoes from Houston and Europe. Tanker deliveries from Houston have a shorter transit time of 5-7 days...

Pipelines typically participate in intermodal movements with the other modes. As an example, pipeline/ship combinations are important for crude oil. Crude oil imported to the United States by ship is typically unloaded in New Orleans, Port Arthur, or Houston, Texas. These quantities are then refined on the Gulf Coast or transshipped by pipeline to refineries in St. Louis, Chicago, or Ohio/Michigan/Kentucky. Similarly, the pipeline/truck combination is important for refined products. Many refined products combine a long-distance delivery from a refining center by pipeline with a final truck journey to destination.

If the Houston oil terminals are closed, Port Fourchon is closed, and the refineries shut down, I guess there's always Europe.

Another piece of data:

Whose bright idea was it to put Texas and Louisiana right next to each other on the map?

From iReport.com (a darn good place to follow these events real time):

NC with fuel shortage today?

Small college town in the mountains, Sylva, NC was the scene of chaos fueled by rumor of $6 gasoline and rumors that tomorrow there will be no gas in our surrounding area.

SC certainly has problems

How in the world could gas go up over five dollars from about $3.50 in a matter of hours. This station did not just get a delivery.

Also in Indiana

I took these photos at at BP Kangaroo Express in Evansville indiana today, 9/12/08
They are limiting us to 10 gallons!

Hurricane hunters report the storm strengthening

Near the storm we can see the strength of the waves in the open gulf! It looked alomst like ice below us the water was so churned up! We measured over 100 knot winds on the sea surface in the north east quardrant.

Food shortages in Texas

In College Station, Texas today, I went to stock up on food, and at Kroger's pretty much all the essentials were gone.

U.S. Refiners Accelerate Closings as Ike Strengthens

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. refiners are speeding up plant closures as Hurricane Ike gathers strength toward the Texas Gulf Coast, home to 23 percent of domestic oil-processing capacity.

About 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity is being shut before Ike makes landfall today. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company, started shutting down its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery because ``of shifts in Hurricane Ike's track,'' the company said on its Web site.

``Ike is headed into the heart of the refining industry,'' Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said in an interview. ``The damage is likely to come in flooding, a lack of power for an extended period of time.''

Oil industry hunkers down

In the most recent figures available, the Minerals Management Service reported on Thursday that 562, or more than 78%, of the 717 manned production platforms in the Gulf had been evacuated, along with 93 of the 121 rigs.

But the real-time figure is likely higher, as all companies in the Gulf reported on Thursday that evacuations were either underway or completed. Many of the facilities were in the process of being restarted after Hurricane Gustav, which had swept through the Gulf and crashed into Louisiana on Labor Day weekend.

There are already runs on gas stations. A sampling:

The Gas Panic is Alive (Georgia)

The worry of skyrocketing gas prices spurred a run on gasoline stations Thursday afternoon. The run spawned a temporary gasoline shortage, and of course the rumors of no gasoline on Friday.

Knox hit with gas shortage (Tennessee)

Knoxville-area drivers are seeing more bags on gasoline pumps today as a petroleum shortage spreading throughout the Southeast hits local gas stations, groceries and convenience stores.

Ike effect: Run on gas begins

As Hurricane Ike took aim at the heart of the U.S. refining industry, cars lined up eight and 10 deep at each pump at the Herrin Kroger station Thursday evening as rumors circulated throughout the region that gas might hit $5 per gallon by this morning.

Gas prices will spike as Ike nears U.S.

The wholesale price for gas in the U.S. Gulf Coast rose by an average of $1.40 to $4.56 a gallon on Thursday, said Phil Flynn, a fuel analyst with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. That's the largest one-day increase, percentage-wise, since the height of the oil embargo in 1973.

As a result, "We're probably going to see an immediate impact on the price at the pump," he said.

Refinery closures squeezing drivers (Indiana)

Worried Hurricane Ike, which has forced the shutdown of Gulf Coast oil refineries, would push gasoline prices higher and, possibly, even create a fuel shortage, many Tri-State motorists headed for gasoline stations Thursday evening to fill up with "cheap" fuel.

Fuel Price In Texas Jumps Due To Surge In Demand Caused By Residents Fleeing Hurricane Ike

Houston, TX (AHN) - As thousands of Texas residents flee the Gulf Coast to escape the wrath of Hurricane Ike, gas stations in the state reported a 40 percent increase in fill ups resulting to fuel shortage and gas price hikes.

As of Thursday afternoon, 30 percent of Shell gas stations have run out of gas, said Anne Peebles, spokeswoman of Shell's retail division. But she assured, "Those are temporary, rolling outages because the tanker drivers are getting out there and refilling stations."

As Ike nears, chain asks for limit on gas buys

SANFORD, N.C. - A North Carolina-based convenience store chain is asking customers in 11 states — mostly across the Southeast — to limit gasoline purchases to 10 gallons as Hurricane Ike shuts down some refineries on the Gulf coast.

Panic at the Pumps?

Small college town in the mountains, Sylva, NC was the scene of chaos fueled by rumor of $6 gasoline and rumors that tomorrow there will be no gas in our surrounding area. There were reports of fighting and streets were clogged so the police and local rescue squad had to assist. While privately owned stations covered their pumps and shut their doors the chain stores had lines over 1/2 mile long around 7 pm tonight. This video was shot around 9 pm after the worst of the lines and traffic was over.

Emergency chiefs urge halt to local gas run

FRANKLIN – Emergency officials in three Western North Carolina counties are urging people to halt local gas runs saying there is no danger of a shortage.

The price per gallon at one station in Franklin on Thursday jumped from $3.78 a gallon to $4.15 in minutes as long lines started to form, said Warren Cabe, the county’s emergency services director.

Cabe said the run in his county appeared to have started with rumors of a fuel pipeline problem and dramatic price increases.

Dan Pickering on KHOU reporting that shut-ins will affect off-shore platforms but no damage reported yet. Not clear what he is basing that "no damage" statement on- is there real-time data coming from off-shore platforms?

1-3 weeks of refining off-line, according to Dan. Showing video of tanker trucks in CA lined up, presumably to take deliveries East?

Four simultaneous video feeds for those with ADD and broadband here:
http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

Here is Ike's history up to the 1200 UTC, 12 Sep 2008 NHC statement:

Ike apparently has gained some in maximum wind speed, up to 90-kt, but central pressure is up about 10 mb over recent lows. Central pressure is also varying a bit between observations.

Buoy 42001, located at 25.9ºN and 89.7ºW, ended up fairly close to Ike's center. Lowest pressure was 959.7 mb (28.34"). Maximum winds were 68 mph gusting 87 out of the south after Ike's center had moved to the west. This buoy has an ARES payload, so the sustained winds are an 8-minute average. Adjusting to 1-minute, which has been the standard indicator for hurricane strength (and a 2-minute wind is typically lower than 1-minute by about 5%, so generally not much different), max winds were probably in the range of 75-80 mph. Still a bit short of the 100-105 mph being estimated for the storm. The maximum winds likely skirted Buoy 42001.

Here's Ike's forward speed:

Ike continues to accelerate as it approaches Texas.

And here is Ike's track compared to Gustav's:

Looks to be closing in on Galveston, TX. If the storm's direction doesn't shift much, then, by this diagram, Ike would land just west of Galveston.

-best,

Wolf

KHOU reporting on tug boats pushing together barges and tethering them together in open water in bays and channels, the barges (according to reporter) carry petrochemicals. They noted that barges pushed around by Katrina created some damage to land-based structures and that the barges themselves aren't sea-rated, contents will likely be lost. The reporters in the studio expressed skepticism that tethering them together will make much of a difference.

Edit: what size of barge impact do you suppose the infrastructure is rated to handle? My guess is that a 40' pleasure craft can take out a powerline. An 80 foot barge versus a refinery?

According to the guys at storm2k, the latest recon flight found flight level winds of 114 knots, which supports surface level winds around Chuck's magic level of 100 knots.

Chuck just sent me this 11am update:

NHC has dropped their intensity forecast as of 11am by 10 knots, to peak at 95 knots (more in line with my thinking). Based on data over the last 3 hours, I'm thinking the refinery risk is decreasing. Here are our 30 day probabilities for various refinery production losses:

1 MMBBL: 50%
3 MMBBL: 25%
5 MMBBL: 15%

Dropping the in-house landfall estimate to 85kts: dry air is starting to enter the core of the system.

SLOSH from over at WUnderground/Masters' blog:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i46_gl2_EOHW.gif

I just talked 10 minutes ago to my good friend who is now staying put in Galveston holding the fort as this tropical storm passes. He also confirmed as a fact that most of his neighbors and most of the towns people have not evacuated. He said he thinks about 1/3rd of the towns people have fled and he estimates about 2/3rd are holding down the hatches.
They are going to get water and many have been working with sandbags. My freinds suburb most residence are staying put..this burb is about 3-4 miles west of Galveston downtown area.
Its not only him who is stay put in Galveston...Most people there are..and I agree with their decisions! This is not a CAT 5 storm..if they can tread the water they will be fine!

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/united_states_pipelines_map_sm.jpg

US 90 closed in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi due to storm surge.

Never ending tornado warnings, much more than fro Gustav.
(In 1800s, before modern meteorology, I would be more concerned with Ike than last week here in New Orleans).

Terrebonne and Lafourche Parish officials are "not available" for news media, too busy.

My guess is Port Lafourche post-Gustav repairs (except electrical) will be undone and more damage.

Winds appear to be causing only sporadic power outages in SE Louisiana.

Alan

The Red Cross is opening shelters in South Louisiana for families that were flooded out by storm surge.

This link goes to the National Data Buoy Center's page for the Western Gulf. The inset within the map for Galveston Bay will be of interest during landfall. As you might expect, some of these weather stations are located on drill rigs.

Hello TODers,

Cool photo of Ike taken from the Space Station far above:

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Galveston-Gulf-of-Mexico-NASA-Internationa...

Looks like breaking tsunami waves, but those are just clouds!

Confirmed: Levee overtopped but not breached in Lafourche Parish (access to Port LaFourche) by storm surge.

AFAIK, this levee was not breached during Gustav.

Any readings on storm surge Gustav vs. Ike in South Louisiana ?

Alan

This weather station,incidentally placed on an oil platform is taking a beating:

This one near Galveston is seeing wave height of 20ft already:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42035

Here is the situation at Galveston:

The surge is already around 6 feet, other stations here: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Galveston_Bay.shtml

Confirmed: Levee overtopped but not breached in Terrebonne Parish @ Chauvin by storm surge. Not that far from Port Fourchon.

AFAIK, this levee was not breached during Gustav.

Any readings on storm surge Gustav vs. Ike in South Louisiana ?

Gov. Jindal stated that surge in Port Fourchon is near or at peak, but will take a day before subsiding. MUCH longer than for Gustav.

Gov. Jindal - Confirmed breach of levee in Laforuche Parish, no details
In SW Louisiana, National Guard deployed in high water trucks and State Wildlife in airboats and will evacuate anyone that requests till 2 PM. 5 feet of water on one road already.

Gov. Jindal has authorized citizens to break into state property if they think that they will be safer there. He requests that do a minimum of damage while sheltering there.

Alan

Reports of Cameron, La and parts of Sabine Pass, Port Arthur being underwater from hurricane Ike storm surge.

Edit: Police report LNG facilities in Sabine Pass are under 4ft of water and are expecting a 15ft storm surge yet to come. All facilities at Sabine Pass have been evacuated.

Local hurricane news http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

I'm watching live video of the Balinese night club built out on a pier at Galveston. the waves are already starting to take out this huge structure and the storm is still 9 hrs away. It leaves me beyond words that people will invest their money on the edge of a sandbar in a hurricane zone. I've also heard via CNN that only 25% of the people on that sandbar have evacuated.

We often speak of moral hazard, which is aiding and abetting stupid behavior. What really jerks my chain is that these enormous losses will be socialized through a nation that has become a giant insurance company that insures against -- I won't say stupidity, because its beyond that -- its INSANITY. If another 6,000 people die on that sandbar, my reaction will be "good riddence." This kind of behavior is suicidal.

The NHC has just issued a warning that anyone staying on that sandbar will likely die.

Its about time that all insurance, support and assistence to people who want to live on the edge of disaster and death be withdrawn.

Watching these folks driving up to the wall, smiling, chatting, I think, this is all old song:

"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains: round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level [waters] stretch far away.

Houston TV reporting that Galveston jail, on the island, with about 1000 prisoners, is not being evacuated because of security concerns....

Oil infrastructure can be repaired. Human life cannot. From a peak oil perspective this has little relevance other than to get a glimpse of how panic plays out. That may be the bigger lesson that storms like this can teach us. Short term (emphasis SHORT), people can deal with the price spikes.

Human nature when pushed to it's limits is very nasty, just like Katrina demonstrated in NOLA. What happens when the shelves are empty for too long, when gas prices spike with no relent, or when government isn't able to respond? Dieoff.

I'm in North Houston waiting for the effects to begin later this evening. Yesterday there were long lines for gas at most gas stations. A small percentage sold out. Food and many basic items other than junk food was largely sold out yesterday. There were some late night deliveries, which should help a little. Personally, I have enough food, charcoal, and water to get by for a few weeks. Still, I needed to pick up a few things and I had to go to 5 stores to find one that had enough stuff. Even at 2am the Super Walmarts' parking lots were half full. Lines were long. Gas stations were busy even during the night.

I talked to some people to kill the time standing in the long checkout line. Most people who were out and about were thinking about the immediate concern of the storm. How rude of an awakening will peak oil be to people? Competing for resources during a short term problem is one thing, while competing for survival during a longer term global crisis is another. If peak can't be mitigated, we could see a Mad Max-like scenario play out. The veil between chaos and order is probably much weaker than most people realize.

Realistically, I'm mainly worried about debris damage from strong wind gusts, tree damage, tornadoes, and power lines. Nobody can predict these things, but I think the overall picture is pretty good. Rigs aren't a big deal. Pipelines are easily repairable. Refineries pose some dangers, but there are big incentives to quickly repair damages. So in my estimation none of the infrastructure part matters because we have enough economic incentives to restore BAU. We're not going to see a refinery simply wiped off the map.

Certain areas of Houston and surrounding counties will flood. That's nothing new, a bad rainstorm often does the same thing. I experienced Allison first hand and I know that it's not the strength of a storm that determines damage absolutely. So long as this storm doesn't stall, we should make it through this pretty well.

I'm ambivalent about the people who didn't evacuate. On one hand some of them deserve Darwin awards. On the other hand, the mayor of Galveston and other leaders in surrounding areas played this pretty cautiously until the last minute. There was a mandatory evacuation order given for a nearby county last night at 6:30pm with the expectation that it should be done by 7:00pm. Even the announcer on the radio said, "I don't see how they expect people to leave by 7:00pm... it's 6:30 right now." I guess nobody wants a replay of Rita, but the flip side of that is not giving people enough time to prepare. Perhaps the news and politicians deserve the benefit of the doubt because this has been such a hard storm to predict.

Trying to evacuate this part of the Texas coast is a bit like trying to thread a sewing needle with a garden hose.

Decision time came and went. We're on a Zone C/Zone B boundary. Those in Houston will know what that means. For those outside, there are 4 evac zones - Coastal, Zone A, Zone B, and Zone C. Rita forced evac of all zones. For (edit) Ike we have evac orders for Coastal, A, and B. C was optional with a recommendation I saw from Mayor White's office that as many as possible who can should ride out the storm in place.

Being on a Zone B/Zone C boundary, at 32 feet above sea level and just under 10 miles inland from Galveston Bay, we decided to ride the storm out. The house is secure, windows are all boarded, supplies laid in, and we're hunkering down here. Mostly we're just watching the storm on television at this point.

However, locations closer to the Bay are in for a rather wet time of it all. The string of refineries from the top of the Houston ship channel south through La Porte, Pasadena, on down to Texas City are all going to be inundated and will take quite a while to bring back online after this mess clears.

While I recognize there are recessionary economic pressures on gasoline consumption, I don't think folks out there in the heartland have cut back driving by 40% yet so this is going to hurt.

I will post as I can and continue to lurk between flipping through various weather reports.

I keep hearing this in my head, so I thought I'd post it here and share the misery. I like Nancy Griffith's version is anyone is looking for a youtube. Prayers for all (including the foolish, the stupid, the over-bold and those who simply didn't have time or much choice) that things don't go that badly this time - although I fear they will.

http://www.cmt.com/lyrics/tony-rice/galveston-flood/767906/lyrics.jhtml

Sharon

Gas Price Comment -

Here in North Alabama gas is currently selling for $4.75 to $5+ per gallon.

Texans, always swaggering and cocky as a state (of mind), were particularly loathsome after Katrina when many Texas politicians and media implied that Louisiana just didn't know how to handle a disaster, that's why it turned out so bad.

Hmm, let's see how they handle Ike. I remember the ass-clowns-on-parade during wimpy Rita as Houston tried to evacuate and it took them two Days to figure out they could use BOTH sides of the interstate to go NORTH. Duh. The 100 mile+ traffic backup might, just might, not have been so bad had they (Texas Officials) put two and two together.

We will see if any lessons in Disaster Planning 101 were learned.

If not, I will have to dust off my old political campaign memorabilia buttons from the 50's:

"I Like Ike"

The gas panic has started....Mike S. in Birmingham, AL writes to the inbox:

Word of mouth is that "gas rationing is starting soon" and "soon we'll be out of gas". So everyone is hitting the gas stations to fill up, and they're taking gas cans too. As a result, a few stations actually *have* run out of gas.

Meanwhile, gas went from the 3.50's to the 4.50's in about an hour.

The same stuff happened with Katrina, but this is way WAY more intense. Traffic is backed up out into the streets at the gas stations.

More reports please. Try to keep them substantiated. We are not trying to create a panic when/if there isn't one.

Isnt this the part where Bubba is at sea with the only shrimp trawler? All the other shrimp trawlers were in the bay at dockage. Bubba's boat "JENNY" is the only survivor and BUBBA GUMP shrimp company is born.

Boiled shrimp, fried shrimp, steamed shrimp, BBQ shrimp
baked shrimp, shrimp cocktail, shrimp gumbo,........

for those of you on /.: http://slashdot.org/firehose.pl?op=view&id=1165011

Alabama Governor Riley Declares State of Emergency; Price Gouging Law Goes into Effect

http://www.abc3340.com/news/stories/0908/552960.html

Governor Bob Riley on Friday afternoon declared a state of emergency for Alabama after he received new information from the U.S. Department of Energy that energy shortages will likely occur in the state due to Hurricane Ike.

The Governor’s declaration notes that “disruption of essential utility services, systems and severe energy shortages will likely occur.”

I've been thinking a little about the effect of sea level rise on current nuclear power plants. This map shows 4 meters of sea level rise plus the 20 feet of storm surge expected from Ike though this will actually be up the coast a little as it turns out. http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=28.7653,-95.9525&z=5&m=10

The South Texas Project Nuclear Power Station, like Piglet, ends up nearly compeletely surrounded by water. Switching to 6 m and sliding up the coast to Galveston will give a picture of what could be happening now. I think the church where my sister was married will still be above water. We'll see. Everyone say a prayer.

Chris

On the subject of filling up, what's the prospect for the west coast? I'm in Seattle and filled up yesterday. Prices do not seem to have moved at all.

Can gas from this coast be distributed to parts east, or are the two parts of the country mostly separate, as the pipeline postings seem to suggest?

Three weeks ago I observed how a hurricane strike on Galveston would do a lot for the continuance of life on this planet. What a strange coincidence, there's a hurricane in Galveston.

19:55CDT KHOU-TV: Galveston has lost electricity.

Why is Chuck Watson saying that Ike won't intensify much before landfall when it already has? It's up to 110 MPH from 105 a few hours ago. Most networks are saying it'll make landfall at Cat 3 (111+).

Just as an aside, I had an opportunity a couple of years ago to talk to a person who worked at our local electric power utility. We use natural gas plus a tiny bit of hydroelectricity for our City-owned power generation. Anyway, I was informed that after Katrina natural gas was in such short supply that the electric plant switched over to burning petroleum (apparently the plant is set up to allow such a switch without too much trouble). This may have saved our fair city from a large-scale electric outage (or, at the least, saved us from having to buy mucho power from the Southern Company). So, while we're all pondering the effects of Ike on transportation fuels, we might also consider the effects on local electric generation, and synergistic effects as well.

Best Hopes!

Brother Kornhoer

The amount of red on this map has jumped drastically today:

Harris County which includes Houston is under a 7pm curfew through Sunday.

Hurricane Ike pounds Texas coast, menaces Houston

Risk Management Solutions pegged the value of insured property in the Houston area at nearly $1 trillion, including the city's port.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080913/ts_nm/storm_ike_dc_78

Got a report about 5:00 AM Eastern from the Galveston mayor on the news radio that some of the streets in Galveston had flooded. From an internet report the storm surge was about 16 feet and may not have exceeded the height of the Galveston seawall. Fortunately reports that the storm was going to kill everyone in Galveston were not true.

In the 1900 hurricane, there was no seawall, the storm was a strong Cat. 4 storm instead of a strong Cat. 2 storm. The storm surge was 20 feet or more. It swept away buildings and made the timber frame structures to resemble brush piles in its wake. One in six people died including orphans and nuns at an orphanage.

I browsed Google news. Here is a selection of the main reports.

Hurricane Ike slams into populous Texas coast

The storm drove a wall of water 20 feet (6 metres) high and sent huge waves crashing against a 17-foot (5-metre) sea wall built to protect the city after a hurricane in 1900 killed at least 8,000 people. Most of the 60,000 residents evacuated and there were no immediate reports of deaths in the area.
...
As the storm surge swelled onto Galveston Island, most downtown buildings were surrounded by water. Some people who had ignored a mandatory evacuation order called to be rescued. They received no response because emergency workers were ordered off the streets, officials told the Houston Chronicle.

Nearly 3M people without power as Ike hits

It will likely be a while before electricity returns. CenterPoint Energy says it could take weeks before all the power in the nation's fourth-largest city was restored.

Utility spokesman Floyd LeBlanc said 1.3 million customers — or about 2.9 million people — had lost power by the time the storm made landfall at Galveston early Saturday. Work crews were coming in Monday to restore power, and priority will be given to hospitals, fire and police departments and water and sewage treatment plants.

Ike Forces Shutdown of 19% of Refining Capacity, Limiting Fuel

At least 13 refineries in Texas were shutting down as Ike approached. Gulf Coast refineries and ports are the source of about 50 percent of the fuel and crude used in the eastern half of the U.S.

...

Kevin Kolevar, assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability at the U.S. Department of Energy, said on a conference call.

``We expect to see constrained supplies of refined products,'' he said. ``The administration will utilize every tool at our disposal to lessen the likelihood of limited fuel supplies,'' including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

...

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy company, urged U.S. consumers outside the Gulf Coast region to conserve gasoline and other fuels to help avert shortages.

The company, in a statement on its Web site, said it's concerned about ``the potential impact of Hurricane Ike and the additional pressure it could have on an already stressed petroleum-distribution system.''

...

Planalytics' Rouiller said Ike is similar to Hurricane Alicia in 1983.

``It took them over a year to get their feet on the ground again,'' he said. ``The refineries were down for months. Basically, the whole infrastructure around the Houston metropolitan area was devastated.''

Gas prices jump by up to 13 cents per litre in some markets

Motorists in many cities in Canada received a sharp surprise early Friday when they discovered the price of gasoline had risen by as much as 13 cents per litre.

Liberal MP Dan McTeague, a critic of the oil industry, said he cannot recall a time when gasoline prices rose by so much in such a short period of time.

...

Long lines formed at gas stations after news leaked of the impending jump in price.

At the Pioneer gas bar on Winnipeg's Main Street, where gas was selling for $1.40 a litre, Stan Rowbotham said the lineup was 20 vehicles deep Friday morning.

"I opened at 7 a.m., and 7:15 hit, the lineups just started non-stop," he said. "I was here by myself. People were pumping their own, even though this is a full-service station. And it was just nuts, I couldn't move."

Gas prices soar as Ike hits Texas coast

At the same time gas prices were rising, crude oil was on its way down. For the first time since April 2, the price of oil yesterday briefly fell below $100 US a barrel.

The price of oil has been declining amid forecasts that a slowing global economy will curtail energy demand. Oil first burst through the $100 threshold on Jan. 2, the first day of trading for 2008. It peaked at $147.27 on July 11. It has gained 35 per cent since a year ago, when it traded in the $74 range.

Gas prices were a big topic for campaigning Canadian politicians yesterday.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, in Burnaby, said the price jump was a reminder of the need to cut back on oil consumption. "The main reason why the price of oil is set to go up ... is because humanity is asking for more and more oil, you have demand that is booming much faster than the supply," he said.

I liked to see such a comment in the mouth of one of the top candidates in the Canadian election.

This is looking like another media super-hype event. This was a Cat-1 storm, not a two. Not even the reported gusts go to two.. Storm surges nowhere near predicted. The NHC really overplayed this thing.

The panic gasoline buying was interesting. Be interesting to see if ANY of the refineries were hurt. Doesn't look too likely at this point, but its still a bit early. Looks like Port Arthur got the highest surge.

For anybody with more geographical awareness of Texas than I, the following link of river flows could be interesting -
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/current/?type=flow

What is really interesting to me is that the Neches River currently has a flow of -32000 cubic feet a second - that is, the water is now flowing the wrong direction in that amount. The previous record flow for this measuring station was 8580 - the average is 5290.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?08041780

Just more of that overhyping of data - the measured flow in the wrong direction is basically 4 times greater than the previous measured maximum. And basically, all of that water will be coming back - this storm will take a while before its effects are over, much less known.

some additional reasons to wait before we discount Ike:

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/) said late last night that the storm was bigger and had more total energy than either Katrina or Rita.

It was so large and wide, with such an unusual eye that whatever harm Galveston Bay avoids will just hurt Port Arthur instead (where they were reporting 96 mph winds).

I read that the storm surge was only about 15 feet in the 1900 Galveston hurricane, the deadliest disaster in US history (because they had no surge walls then). I also read that the Galveston wall (which is only on the gulf side) is only 15 feet high.

Jeff Master's blog also shows that high tide at Galveston was at 2 AM.
Ike made landfall at Galveston just a few minutes after 2 AM.

I am finding lots of local news on the web from as far east as New Orleans of significant storm surge flooding.

Excerpts from BBC

Galveston: There is widespread flooding, and a hospital there is under at least 9.8ft (3 metres of water). The city has lost power and a number of houses are reported to be on fire.

Houston Downtown Hotel: "The power went out five hours ago, the lowest floor is submerged. Outside walls and ceilings have collapsed, the glass atrium in the lobby shattered.

"With the threat of rising seas, hotel guests have been ushered into the concrete stairwell, the sturdiest part of the building, and urged to climb to higher floors."
-------
Houston official says not to expect Buffalo Bayou (linked with Houston Ship Channel) to go down because of heavy rainfall.

Data from linked upper Ship Channel monitor is bouncing between 3.5 and 2.8 meters (last 3.3 m). Rainfall may account for this.

Alan