Drumbeat: September 22, 2010
Posted by Leanan on September 22, 2010 - 10:20am
China-Japan fight goes deeper than islands
(CNN) -- The husk of a dead volcano protruding from the East China Sea has become the battleground between the two mightiest economies in Asia.At stake are potentially lucrative gas drilling rights in waters claimed by China and Japan. But the outcome of the territorial dispute may hinge on the medicinal herbs of a Chinese empress, the collection of bird excrement by the Japanese and the definition of what really makes an "island."
Indonesia Rejects China Stance That U.S. Stay Out of Local Waters Dispute
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa rejected China’s stance that the U.S. stay out of territorial disputes in the South China Sea ahead of a meeting of Southeast Asian leaders with President Barack Obama.The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is aware of China’s position “but at the same time the issues on the South China Sea need resolution,” Natalegawa said in an interview today with Bloomberg Television. “Indonesia, through Asean, is keen to ensure we have conditions conducive for negotiations to take place” so disagreements “can be resolved through peaceful means.”
Iran, Oman help support gasoline
Gasoline premiums in the Middle East held their ground over the last week, drawing support from Omani buying and speculation Iran had managed to import fuel in defiance of international sanctions.Trade sources said 12,000 tonnes of gasoline had made its way to Bandar Abbas in Iran earlier this month.
But there was no official confirmation of the deal and some traders said Iran was still absent from the market.
Ukraine gas peace threatens to unravel
Just months ago, peace seemed to have broken out in the long gas wars between Ukraine and Russia. Yet as autumn turns chillier, the same volatile mix of factors that has sparked two shut-offs of Russian gas to Ukraine since 2006 is creating at least the chance of a new winter stand-off.The unravelling of the gas peace is a surprise. While warmer relations had been expected, the speed with which Russia-leaning president Viktor Yanukovich tilted Ukraine back towards Moscow after his February election startled western capitals.
Russia, China agree gas supply terms: Gazprom
Moscow and Beijing have agreed on key supply terms for future Russian gas deliveries to China, which is seeking to secure energy resources to fuel its growing economy, Gazprom said on Wednesday.Russian gas giant Gazprom, keen to diversify its energy clients, has been in talks with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to start sending gas to China but the two countries have yet to agree on pricing.
Iceland Calls for End to 'Cold War' Tension over Arctic
Iceland's president called Wednesday for an end to "Cold War" tensions over the Arctic as nations with competing claims to the region met in Moscow."Countries shouldn't discuss territorial claims against each other, but engage in dialogue," President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson said, the ITAR-TASS news agency reported.
"The Cold War times, when the Arctic was a region of tension, have passed," he added.
France Officials Confront Second Kidnapping Standoff in Nigeria
(Bloomberg) -- French authorities are mobilizing to free hostages in two African standoffs after today’s kidnapping of three oil workers in Nigeria. That came a week after five French workers at a mine in Niger were seized.The Niger kidnapping was claimed by a terrorist group in the Sahara Desert affiliated with al-Qaeda. No one has claimed the Nigerian kidnapping, which took place off the coast on an oil-services boat owned by Bourbon SA.
China Oil Consumption Climbs, But Down From June Peak
China consumed an estimated 35.54 million metric tons (mt) of oil in August, 7.6% higher than the corresponding month of last year, but a continuing decline from June's all-time peak, according to Platts' analysis of data from China's National Bureau of Statistics.The August apparent oil demand, or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at domestic refineries and net oil product imports, equates to an average 8.40 million b/d, compared with 8.47 million b/d in July and 8.97 million b/d in June this year. Meanwhile, for the first eight months of 2010, China's apparent oil demand was 282.17 million mt or an average of 8.51 million b/d, up 10.9% from the same period of 2009.
Damaged Xcel plant to remain shut down for weeks
Tuesday's fire and explosion at an Xcel Energy plant in Burnsville will keep the facility shut down for weeks, a spokesman for the utility said Wednesday.In the meantime, spokesman Tom Hoen said, workers are scrambling to cover the damaged area to the Black Dog plant because of the heavy rain and high winds in the forecast for later today.
Sao Tome wants to partner with Africa oil firms
LUANDA (Reuters) - Sao Tome would prefer to partner with African companies, including Angola's state-owned oil firm Sonangol, for oil exploration, the prime minister of the tiny West African nation said on a visit to Angola on Wednesday.
Coal aplenty, but power companies prefer foreign assets
MUMBAI: Despite India’s abundant coal resources, many power producers are investing in coal assets outside India to buy the commodity to fuel their proposed power projects in the country. Major private players like Tata Power, Reliance Power, Adani, JSW Energy, Jindal Steel & Power, GMR and Essar Energy have invested more than Rs 35,000 crore for coal assets abroad and seek further investment opportunities in countries with conducive regulatory norms, say people connected with the development.
Land prices may force Mumbai petrol pumps to close: Petition
With land prices soaring, most of the petrol pumps in Mumbai may be asked by landlords to close down so that plots can be commercially exploited, a petition filed in Bombay high court said today and supported a government notification aiming to protect fuel outlets in the city.Out of 257 petrol pumps located in the city, eviction notices have already been served on 119 pumps, the petition, filed by Petrol Dealers Association, Mumbai, said.
Threatened gas turn off spells trouble for industry
An impending gas shortage could mean disaster for Poland’s heavy industry giants, with reductions in supply already billed for October, media reports.The as yet unsigned gas deal with Russia has meant that gas shortages could affect over twenty of Poland’s largest industrial producers, ranging from refiners PKN Orlen to metallurgy monoliths KGHM and ArcelorMittal Poland.
Peak Oil: We've Been Lying to You
Critics have called peak oil alarmists “the boy who cried wolf” for years.Let me be the first to tell you the wolf has arrived.
Vermont: Dubie, Shumlin face off
The candidates were asked to provide their energy policy. “The last three years the energy policy could have been written on a card,” Shumlin said. He described that policy as “let’s do what we’ve always done.”“Our power future… is small, community-based power,” Shumlin said. He acknowledged smaller projects cost more but said they would be cost-effective because the future for cheap power is limited.
“We’ve reached peak oil,” Shumlin said. In addition, India and China are increasing their consumption. Those two factors will cause prices to rise, he said.
“I don’t find that to be an acceptable answer,” Dubie said.
Share American: Finding that Freecycle Feeling
Two books, The Mesh and What's Mine is Yours, have recently come out focusing on the emerging trend of capitalism as a sort of team sport. This is a trump card in the sustainability debate, since there is a general fear that a) if we each stop buying lots of new physical goods the economy will collapse (it won't), b) we don't know how to change our behavior and obsession with buying stuff (not true; we can learn) and c) almost everything we are currently doing in society adds to the problem (a bit harsh but probably true).
China winning renewable energy race
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Five miles off the coast of Shanghai, the Chinese recently completed the country's first offshore wind farm.The project was completed before construction on the first American offshore wind farm has even begun.
FACTBOX - U.N. draft plan to protect animals, plants by 2020
REUTERS – A U.N. summit on Wednesday will consider new 2020 targets for combating the increasing extinction of animals and plants caused by threats such as pollution, climate change and forest clearance.
Melting ice opens up potential for Arctic exploitation
Scientific studies, such as one by the US Geological Survey conducted in 2009, suggest that 25% of the planet's undiscovered oil and gas are to be found within the Arctic region.Other surveys claim that as many as 200 billion barrels of oil may be available, twice as much as has been found in Kuwait.
The exact amount of oil and its locations can only been established by sending ships out to drill for it - an expensive and risky process.
Arctic claims summit gets under way in Moscow
One quarter of the world's resources of oil and gas are believed to lie beneath the Arctic Ocean.Russia, Norway, Canada, Denmark and the United States have already laid claim to territory in the region.
Some 300 delegates will discuss co-operation but are also likely to push their claims to the Arctic's riches.
Hydrocarbons top Arctic summit agenda
An international summit opens in Moscow today in an attempt to stop the Arctic becoming the next flashpoint in the global resources race.
Russia confident its Arctic claim will succeed
MOSCOW (AP): Russia is optimistic about winning the United Nations' approval of its claim to Arctic territories that are rich in oil and gas, a senior Kremlin adviser said Wednesday.With shrinking polar ice opening up new opportunities for exploring the Arctic region, Russia as well as Canada and Denmark have said they would file claims with the U.N. that an undersea mountain range called the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of their respective territories.
Oil rises above $75 as US dollar weakens
Oil prices rose above $75 a barrel Wednesday, boosted by a weaker dollar. But gains were limited by a report showing an unexpected rise in U.S. supplies last week, a sign demand for crude may not be improving.
Crude Price Forecasts for 2010, 2011 Cut by ANZ Bank on High Inventories
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. lowered its forecast for crude oil in New York by 1 percent next year, citing higher-than-average inventories and slowing economic growth in the U.S.Oil futures will average $88 a barrel in 2011, Mark Pervan, a senior commodity analyst at ANZ, said in a report today. The company also cut its 2010 price estimate by 1.7 percent.
Rising U.S. oil output suggests $75 here to stay: John Kemp
(Reuters) - Many analysts and traders continue to call for oil prices to move towards $90-$100 per barrel or higher in the next few years to ration demand, incentivise increased output and offset rising exploration and production costs.But recent growth in non-OPEC production, particularly in the United States, indicates a real price around $75 might be sufficient to keep the market well supplied in the medium-term. If current supply trends are sustained, crude prices could remain comfortably within the $70-80 range longer than many forecasters expect.
Report: Libya detains Canadian spy suspect
CAIRO – Libya has detained a Canadian man on suspicion of spying on a planned BP offshore drilling project for U.S. intelligence, a Libyan newspaper reported.
IEA's Birol says little supply impact from BP spill
(Reuters) - The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will have little or no effect on the medium-term outlook for offshore drilling and supplies, the International Energy Agency told Reuters on Tuesday.Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the group that advises 28 industrialized economies, said while some projects may be delayed in the short-term, the need to increase future oil supplies meant governments will not impose draconian regulations in the wake of the BP spill that caused the United States' worst ever oil spill.
FACTBOX-Oil spill claims $259 million in 4 weeks
The April 20 well rupture killed 11 people and caused the world's worst marine crude oil spill. BP said it permanently sealed the well on Sunday. Below is a breakdown of payments made through Sept. 20:
Degraded Oil From BP Spill Coats Gulf Seafloor
NEW YORK - Now that BP's Deepwater Horizon oil well has been sealed, the long, hard work of assessing the damage begins even as the oil is dispersing throughout the Gulf.A research team from Columbia University in New York returned this past weekend (Sept. 17 to 19) from a tour of duty in the Gulf of Mexico with new data to attempt to measure the location and magnitude of subsurface oil plumes, and their effects on the marine ecosystem, which have recently been the focus of much debate.
MAS fines, suspends Singapore trader for false trades
Singapore’s central bank fined CIMB-GK Securities trader Tan Wee Kiat Melvin $50,000 for false trading and suspended his license for three months as the city cracks down on market abuse.Tan, who admitted contravening the securities act, made a profit of $3,800 after falsely creating the appearance of a large supply of Singapore Petroleum Co. shares on Aug 11, 2009, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an e-mailed statement today.
US driller hopes for 2011 start in south
United States oil giant Anadarko Petroleum hopes to be drilling in deep water off the New Zealand coast next summer.Bret Dixon, of the company's international new ventures division, said in Auckland yesterday the timing of any drilling in the Canterbury Basin would be in conjunction with other operators drilling in other areas such as the Great South Basin.
Nuclear Impasse May Prompt Renewed Diplomatic Offer to Iran at UN Meeting
The U.S. and other world powers will assess the impact of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear pursuits at a meeting today at the United Nations, while holding out the prospect of diplomacy to resolve the dispute.Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her counterparts from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia will “speak in one voice” to Iran, Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, told reporters.
Gargash calls on nuclear states to assist developing nations
The world’s most technologically advanced states need to offer more help to developing countries to build nuclear power plants, a senior Government official says.
UAE confident over safety procedures for new plant
Anyone who remembers the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 could be forgiven for expressing concern about the rise of new nuclear power programmes, even in this modern age.But the nuclear industry has made great strides in safety since the meltdown and explosion at the Russian-built reactor in Ukraine, and Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) has worked to account for all manner of eventualities as it seeks environmental approval for the UAE’s first nuclear complex.
UAE Nuclear energy programme peaceful and secure
The United Arab Emirates is developing its peaceful nuclear energy programme to address the increasing domestic demand in electricity.The decision to commence this programme was based on an extensive assessments of all available alternatives, in terms of economic, environmental feasibility, sustainability, and its contribution to economic diversity.
Abu Dhabi may use debt to finance nuclear plant
Abu Dhabi is expected to raise debt to finance more than half the cost of its initial US$20 billion (Dh73.46bn) nuclear project, defying a warning by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that lenders could shy away from nuclear development.
Solar Doubling, Gas Glut Drive German Power Prices Lower
Solar power may almost double in Germany this year just as a natural gas glut sends electricity prices to near five-month lows.
Japan's Chubu plans 8MW solar plant to cut emissions
(Reuters) - Japanese utility Chubu Electric Power Co said on Wednesday it plans to build an 8-megawatt solar power plant in central Japan as part of efforts to boost renewable energy sources to help cut greenhouse gas emissions.
A Trade-In Market for the Volt Battery?
On Tuesday, G.M. and the ABB Group, the electrical equipment manufacturer, said they were exploring whether worn-out batteries could have an afterlife on the power grid. That 10 kilowatt-hours is still a lot of energy, after all — roughly what a single-family house uses in eight or 10 hours. And even if the speed at which the battery can deliver the current declined, it would probably be fast enough for electric utility use. (With car batteries, one of the challenges is to deliver energy fast enough to accelerate a car to highway speeds.)
The health and wealth of the world ~ an interview with Bob Moriarty
What forms of “energy” do you think will be the ultimate sources for providing power to homes and businesses in the future?Peak oil is very real. It also infers peak population. I’m 64 and at that age ~ a lot closer to the exit than the entrance. The world has some giant problems ahead. Nuclear is about as good as anything we have a choice of but it takes 10 years to build.
Entrepreneurs to Politicians: We’ll Do Your Job For You
But regardless what happens or does not happen in November, plenty of evidence suggests that we are in the early stages—a Wild West, dare we say, of an energy revolution. You only have to look at Silicon Valley, a region that has taken it in the shins numerous times over the years, only to dust itself off and reinvent itself, as transformed from agriculture to defense contractors . . . to semiconductors and then dot-com to dot-bomb, only to find a spark in clean energy and other technologies. Many of these entrepreneurs have failed more than once, but are able to bounce back.
A Return to the Business Cycles of Yore
Will the Obama expansion match the previous three in strength and duration? Or will it revert to the pattern of shorter business cycles that prevailed between 1945 and 1980?I believe that U.S. business cycles will return to the tempo of yore. That’s because the Reagan, Clinton and Bush business cycles were propelled by the massive accumulation of debt, adding roughly 1.4% of growth annually over three decades. That rocket fuel — rising house values, tapping homes for equity, the reckless run-up of credit card debt – is gone. Indeed, consumers and businesses are de-leveraging. That fact alone suggests that economic growth will be weaker in the years ahead. If you also consider the government’s unprecedented misallocation of capital, higher taxes, peak oil, and the economic weakness of our traditional trading partners, there is little reason to expect robust growth in the coming decade.
Which Came First, God or the Government?
CEO Tom MacNeill likes to throw that line out to investors as he explains the opportunity at 49 North Resources Inc. (FNR-TSX). 49 North is a specialized venture capital company that is quickly morphing into a fast growing oil producer, with a twist. It’s focused solely on Saskatchewan. The map that illustrates his point shows a stark contrast between Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Alberta, the map has an abundance of oil and gas properties being developed. Moving east across the border in Saskatchewan is like falling off a cliff; there is a dramatic and immediate drop off in the amount of activity in oil and gas.The productive oil and gas geology doesn’t stop on a dime like that, says MacNeill. He sees huge opportunity in that map. His theory is that 40 years of socialist governments in Saskatchewan have slowed the development of the province’s energy resources, but the new business friendly government of Premier Brad Wall has created a huge wealth of opportunity for energy entrepreneurs like himself.
Jeff Rubin: Obama’s fiscal stimulus no substitute for cheap oil
What’s being overlooked is that last cycle’s rate of growth was fueled for the most part with cheap oil—oil was below $30 a barrel for the first half of the period. Even today’s oil prices weren’t encountered until the last year of growth. That’s not incidental to the performance of the U.S. economy, which relies on imports for over half of its 19-million-barrel-a-day requirement.Feed the U.S. economy cheap oil, and you’ll see robust growth rates and a drop in the jobless rate to four-decade lows—no matter who’s in the White House. But throw in $147-per-barrel oil, and the U.S. economy stops dead in its tracks.
Unfortunately, President Obama can’t bring back the cheap oil prices that fueled most of last cycle’s growth. The recent BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico probably drove the final nail into the coffin of the last frontier of untapped domestic supply— deep water.
Would you like some values with that tea?
Some of the more "traditional" fiscal conservatives (but by no means all) have become very alarmed by the role of the religious right in the Republican Party. Not all Republican fiscal conservatives are as erudite as Kevin Phillips, but Phillips' career and writings actually track the developments in American fiscal conservatism from an increasing disaffection with "values voters" to, at least in Phillips case, down-right horror. Phillips was a famous Republican party strategist, and credited with being the architect of the "Southern Strategy" of the 1970's and 1980's. His disaffection with conservatism includes his explicit rejection of "Christian politics," was well described in his work American Theocracy. His even more recent book, Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism, skewers far-Right Christian theology and its virtually numbing effect on the American voter. "The preoccupation of Americans awaiting the Rapture or the tremors of Armageddon...kept another band of voters essentially unconcerned about budget deficits, peak oil, or the perils of the U.S. dollar." (p. 91).
Well, we've finally got a mostly-complete ASPO Conference schedule. The problem is exactly the sort of problem you'd really like to have when running one of these - that there are just too many serious thinkers who need a spot. It is really tough to finalize the conference schedule when every day you are receiving calls that say things like "This is Bianca Jagger, Chair of the Human Rights Foundation, calling to say that I'd like to speak at your conference on the connection between Climate, Energy Depletion and Human Rights...here are the texts of my UN speeches if you'd like to see them." Or "The Rear-Admiral would be delighted..."What we're seeing is that the scientific debates about peak energy are really over - the IEA, the US Military, the Department of Energy - all of them have had to admit that we are facing instability and supply constraints, coming upon us very soon. Former Secretary of State Dr. James Schlesinger has come out in the mainstream media to point out that the discussion is over - and now we have to deal with the realities.
Eight hurdles on the track to a green energy future
The green energy future envisions a technological road that leads to an infinite supply of power, independence from potentially hostile nations and an atmosphere cleared of the excess heat-trapping gases that are blamed for warming the planet. The track to this future, however, is full of technological and policy hurdles. Click ahead to learn how eight of the biggest hurdles might be cleared.
What Drives Paul Scott to Push for Plug-In Cars and Solar?
Paul Scott is a founding member of Plug In America and a longtime electric-vehicle driver and advocate for renewable energy. He worked in visual effects in the film industry for most of his career, and now is employed by SolarCity, California's largest residential solar installation firm. Mr. Scott is the president of the Electric Vehicle Association of Southern California and was one of the first two Americans invited to Japan to test-drive a production version of the Nissan Leaf all-electric car earlier this year.
Porsche 911 GT3 R race car joins high-tech and green tech
Imagine tearing through the turns of a racetrack, fighting for every extra inch among other closely matched cars, knowing that you have a secret weapon.It's a little red button.
Push it, and the Porsche 911 GT3 R hybrid race car leaps ahead of the pack with a six-second burst of extra energy. And it's as high-tech as it comes.
Cul-de-sacs: Dead Ends in More Ways Than One
They recommended putting the school at the end of a cul-de-sac, with ample space for "mothers to drop off their children in cars every morning." At no point did they take seriously the master plan's imperative that the school should be "centrally located to make walking convenient and to make the school the symbol of the community."
Local food movement spurs canning trend: Get those jars ready
Once dismissed as a tradition of a bygone era, canning is making a comeback. "There's a lot of interest in these old ways," says Olson, who attributes the growth to the local-food movement and food-safety concerns. "It's funny because in my generation growing up, we had no interest in this."
Fermentation: A wild way to make food come to life
Part science, part art, lactofermentation is an ancient method of food preservation using live bacterial cultures. Anathema though it may seem to a generation of antibacterial hand-gel obsessives, the technique is increasingly being embraced by DIY aficionados and whole-food advocates who like the idea of low-tech preservation and also believe that unpasteurized foods aid digestion and boost immunity.
Brazilian socialism distorts free markets to feed hungry poor and dying babies
”Another product of food-as-a-right thinking is three large, airy “People’s Restaurants” (Restaurante Popular), plus a few smaller venues, that daily serve 12,000 or more people using mostly locally grown food for the equivalent of less than 50 cents a meal.The cost, around $10 million annually, or less than 2 percent of the city budget. That’s about a penny a day per Belo resident.”
Kazakh natural gas pipeline ruptures
ALMATY, Kazakhstan—Emergency officials in Kazakhstan say two blasts ruptured a pipeline carrying natural gas to neighboring Russia, forcing a suspension of deliveries through the route. No casualties have been reported.
FACTBOX-UAE oil and gas concessions
(Reuters) - Multinational companies hold large stakes in concessions that pump most of the oil and gas in the United Arab Emirates, the world's third-largest oil exporter.The UAE has said it aims to increase its oil production capacity to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.7 million bpd now and it will be reliant on these concessions for the increase.
The UAE's concessions system allows oil and gas producers to acquire their own equity hydrocarbons from an OPEC country but in return they have to provide much of the investment for new production and agree margins analysts say are very tight by international standards.
Serengeti wildebeest spectacle under threat from development
Plans for a new road that would cause the Serengeti ecosystem to 'collapse' is attracting international concern.
Hurricanes may cost beyond those hit
A major hurricane in the southern U.S. could carry a financial punch that reaches far beyond coastal communities by forcing hefty insurance surcharges on millions of unaffected people to help pay claims on damaged homes, a USA TODAY analysis shows.
California Air Resources Board to vote on renewable electricity rules
Despite a bruising ballot battle over California's landmark climate change law, the state is forging ahead with plans requiring electric utilities to obtain a third of their supply from renewable energy sources.The California Air Resources Board on Thursday will vote on far-reaching new rules and regulations for the state's renewable electricity standard, a cornerstone of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's agenda.
Risk of Beetle Outbreaks Rise, Along With Temperature, in the Warming West
ScienceDaily — The potential for outbreaks of spruce and mountain pine beetles in western North America's forests is likely to increase significantly in the coming decades, according to a study conducted by USDA Forest Service researchers and their colleagues. Their findings, published in the September issue of the journal BioScience, represent the first comprehensive synthesis of the effects of climate change on bark beetles.
Australia May Introduce `Hybrid' Policy on Curbing Carbon, Citigroup Says
Australia is likely to impose a price on carbon emissions in the next three years, replacing a previous plan with a blend of initiatives, including a trading system or a tax as well as regulation, Citigroup Inc. said.
'Chemical nonsense': Leading scientists refute Lord Monckton's attack on climate science
A coalition of leading climate scientists yesterday filed a 48-page document to the US Congress refuting an attack on climate science made earlier this year by the Ukip deputy leader, Lord Christopher Monckton.The detailed rebuttal addresses nine key scientific claims made by Monckton, a prominent climate sceptic, to a house select committee hearing in May. It includes the responses of 21 climate scientists who variously conclude that Monckton's assertions are "very misleading", "profoundly wrong", "simply false", "chemical nonsense", and "cannot be supported by climate physics".
Deep water warming raises sea levels
Deep water warming over the past two decades in the Southern Ocean is leading to a rise in sea levels, which has the potential to reshape the coastal environment, said a new study.
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Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions with Robert Rapier
This is a very good 13 minute video interview with Robert Rapier. He pretty well told it like it is, especially where corn ethanol is concerned.
One question I thought was so typical. In what direction do you think the solution will lie? (It is always assumed that there is a solution.) Of course Robert’s answer was the politically correct one, the only answer he could possibly give under the circumstances, and it was: There is no other conclusion one can reach other than we are going to have to get by with a lot less.
Of course we will. When there is a lot less left we will just have to get by as best we can with that. But of course that answer is really no answer at all because the supply of fossil fuel will just keep declining… forever. The question not asked, and the question that is never answered is: How will humanity cope as fossil energy drops, every year, until for all practical purposes, it is gone? And the answer is: We won’t really cope at all, humanity will simply shrink until the available resources can feed the surviving population.
Ron P.
sweeeet.
In recognition that any serious attempt to do anything about global warming is off the agenda, especially in the U.S., the only ray of hope I see this morning is that humanity will shrink and continue to shrink. Too bad, I guess, that this will be largely involuntary, but that is the way the cookie crumbles. The time, frame though, appears highly uncertain.
You have a strange definition of coping, Ron.
Not everyone will cope, obviously, but mourning the future dead doesn't make any sense. Might as well mourn for your own death, which is inevitable and likely to occur before humanity in general sees any huge population decrease.
R4, you have a strange way of reading things into a post that are simply not there.
I did not give a definition of coping. I said we won't cope. That is a far cry from a definition.
And where in my post did I give any hint of mourning the dead?
It looks for all the world, R4, that you wished to criticize my post but you couldn't find anything to criticize so you just made something up. That is tacky R4, real tacky and totally uncalled for.
My post was intended to give praise to Robert's interview and hopefully get people on this list to listen to it. But you seem to wish to start a flame war. I really don't need this crap R4.
Ron P.
You did a fine job of praising the interview (thanks for the link to it), but you couldn't let it rest without a "but we're doomed and he won't admit it".
So yes, I do find something wrong with your post.
R4... the question not asked is central to the discussion. To be offended is not realistic.
Well you should have said that to start with R4, instead of criticizing my post for something that was not even in my post.
I have absolutely no problem with Robert's answers and statements in the interview. As I said he told it like it is. In my opinion he could not have done a better job than he did. I found no fault with any of his answers. And he admitted everything he needed to about peak oil.
And yes, I did insert my opinion about questions not asked and answers not given into the post. But unlike you I see nothing wrong with that. I see the ultimate question as: What will be the ultimate outcome of the demise of fossil energy?
But I do understand why you would find fault with anyone asking such a question. You, like the vast majority of other folks, simply wish that question would never be asked. And you sure as hell do not wish to hear the answer.
I understand R4, I truly understand. You just wish the whole problem would go away and get upset when it refuses to abide by your wishes.
Ron P.
It isn't that the question shouldn't be asked, it's that somehow it manages to sneak into places where it isn't relevant.
Ultimately the universe will either recollapse in a Gnab Gib, or diffuse out so far that there are no useful concentrations of energy (heat death). It is important to know the answer to which is going to happen, but the question is not relevant to a discussion of whether it is better to bike or walk to work.
Ultimately fossil fuel production will go to near zero, possibly human population will drop to pre-industrial levels in the process. It is an important question, and one that needs to be discussed. It does not need to be brought up every time one discusses fossil fuel depletion.
Carthago delenda est.
Oh... The ultimate result of fossil fuel depletion is not relevant in a discussion about fossil fuel depletion.
Okay, if you say so R4.
Ron P.
You have no idea what will be the ultimate result of fossil fuel depletion. What you have is a virulent case of can't-doism.
Sad to see how can't-doism is ruining so many lives in the US.
Good for Robert Rapier for not succumbing.
Toil, let's get a case of can-doeism. How do we do it? How do we feed 7 billion people without the aid of fossil energy. Robert, in the interview said we cannot do it with biomass, we cannot do it with solar and we certainly cannot do it with ethanol. He said:The problem is none of them are capable of replacing oil Well anyway, that's what Robert said.
If you disagree with him then pray tell us how we can do it. He said: We are simply going to have to get by with a lot less. Left unsaid was the fact that in the not too distant future, less than 50 years, we are going to have to get by with virtually none.Well there will always be some but compared to what we are pumping today it will be negligible.
So what is the can-doeism report? How will today's current population, and perhaps two billion more by then, get by with no oil and by then very little, if any, other fossil fuel?
Waiting with abated breath on the can-doism report. ;-)
Ron P.
Maybe the Population is not going to 8-9 billion , but will follow the fossil energy curve down from the peak.
We are at peak everything at this point ... maybe including population.
Grain supplies start to decline , so will population.
Can you be a pessimist on how long we can maintain oil production, while being an optimist about how long we can maintain our current lifestyle?
I guess that is the way to phrase this discussion -- a dichotomy, divergence, or contradiction of some sort in the way people shape their outlook.
A rapid increase in efficiency coupled with discarding non-essential uses of oil/energy are the only way I see to reconcile the two POVs.
Alan
Speaking of "can-doism"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20100921/ts_csm/327178
"Unlike most malware, Stuxnet is not intended to help someone make money or steal proprietary data. Industrial control systems experts now have concluded, after nearly four months spent reverse engineering Stuxnet, that the world faces a new breed of malware that could become a template for attackers wishing to launch digital strikes at physical targets worldwide. Internet link not required."
"Until a few days ago, people did not believe a directed attack like this was possible," Ralph Langner, a German cyber-security researcher, told the Monitor in an interview. He was slated to present his findings at a conference of industrial control system security experts Tuesday in Rockville, Md. "What Stuxnet represents is a future in which people with the funds will be able to buy an attack like this on the black market. This is now a valid concern."
Interesting. Sounds like something out of a movie.
If Israel did do it...well, better than a real bomb, I guess. Though it seems likely that they could be hoist on their own petard.
While I was gonna make a comment about rope and petard - turns out a petard is a bomb.
Thus, the hoisting would be with a metaphorical bomb VS a real one.
Well discussed on slashdot. I recommend them for such stories. Not sure how well it relates to peak oil.
http://it.slashdot.org/story/10/09/21/1543259/Stuxnet-Worm-May-Have-Targ...
Computer systems represent another type of military terrain to operate in, and people have been working this angle for years according to various stories on the Internets:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonlight_Maze
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_Rain
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aurora
Cool, there's a plot for a Scifi movie, maybe some hacker will add some genetic algorithm that would allow it to mutate create it's own satellite link and then take over the entire global banking system and stop financing the military industrial complex, thereby destroying that which supports its creators. 21st century Frankenstein. SH*T! if it gets into Craig Venter's and Exxon's synthetic algae labs it could really get interesting, Soylent Green is so last century...mutant algae that only feeds on bankers and lawyers, oh yeah!
Seriously though, when I hear about stuff like this I think having backup systems that are completely off grid and don't depend exclusively on networked computer controlled processes make more and more sense. Like, "Hey Joe could you walk over to autoclave #4 and check the analog pressure gauge please, thanks!" Oh, and don't forget your slide rule...
This is why Adm. Adama of the Battlestar Galactica didn't like the new Pegasus class Battlestars and their networked systems. Way too open to cyber-attack. Course, the Admiralty laughed at this. Until the mushroom clouds appeared after their shiny ships got bricked.
And here I thought you might ask a difficult question.
We use oil and gas in agricultural production, because it is available. As it will continue to be available for decades and decades and as food is a spending priority we will continue to use oil and gas in agricultural production long past the point when the population goes into decline after 2070 due to a changed approach to social reproduction that is part and parcel of the demographic transition. Scarcity will drive the price of oil and gas higher and this will continue the trend of less hydrocarbon use per unit of food production. More labour may be employed, though this is not entirely certain, as farming may become more and more an indoor activity relying on electrically motivated works.
Some parts of the world, due entirely to bad policy choices largely related to disfunctional political systems, the US comes to mind, will be slow to adapt and likely spend decades mired in declining food production and general decay. Others, such as Africa, due to a confluence of interest with dynamic nations like China, will
enjoy as sustained expansion of food production as knowledge is combined with capital, land and sunshine. Today's stories about 'the new colonialism' and 'the land grab' will morph into accounts of the benefits of the dissemination of knowledge.
In the world, as Georgescu-Roegen observed there is novelty through combination. What will emerge in the long run in food production is unknowable because of this fact. We can only be reasonably certain that over time hydrocarbons will play an ever smaller role in food production. The human brain, the only indispensible energy conversion unit from the point of view of our species, will play an ever larger role. And of course this is important to the population question, because it raises the costs of educating the young, which is an actually effective way to constrain population growth. Complexity is good.
Anyway I'm building a shed so back to work. Hope this helps you deal with your evident misery. Get more sun, if you can.
Your point is a valid point, but it is not relevant to every discussion of fossil fuel depletion, only to discussions where very long term impacts are being discussed, the audience is receptive to it's inclusion in the discussion, and there is time for a broader discussion.
Skipping it in a short interview should be able to pass without comment.
The ultimate result of doing anything is to increase entropy, ultimately resulting in not only the extinction of our species but the heat death of the very Universe itself. Given the great impact, I could take it upon myself to ensure that everyone knew this, but even in the case of discussions of cosmology I would expect that people would tire of hearing it if I brought it up too frequently.
R4, anything that is likely to happen within the next 50 years is relevant to any discussion on oil depletion. What is likely to happen in a billion years is not. In logic this is known as the Fallacy of the sweeping generalization. "Since what happens a billion years from now is irrelevant we can infer that what happens in 50 years or less is also irrelevant."
You should know better than try such a rhetorical trick. At least you should know better than try to sneak it by me.
Ron P.
Increasing entropy is with us every day, and is a perpetual thorn in the side of engineers.
I am not convinced that any given developed country will see the problems you claim within that 50 year time frame, and many "developing" countries have been living with them this whole time.
Thus, to assert that it will be a global problem is rather a sweeping generalization, hence my use of reductio ad absurdum to highlight it.
I am asserting that it is a global problem, not that it will become a global problem down the road. Of course this current global problem will get worse, much worse.
Nonsense! No nation is living with this the whole time. All nations depend on petroleum in one way or another. If they were unable to get fuel for their tractors, for their deep well pumps, for their electrical generators and for the dozens of other ways they use oil, their economies would resemble that of Zimbabwe today. No, they would be worse than Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe imports 13,830 barrels of oil per day. Now if that were to go to zero... If all African countries that do not produce oil, if their imports were to go to zero?
But now I understand where you are coming from R4. You simply have no clue as to how the developing world lives. You seem to think most of them simply live off the land the way they would if no fossil fuel were available. Nothing, absolutely nothing could be further from the truth.
A side note: 47 of the 54 African countries receive some sore US foreign aid. That would also go to zero if globalization collapsed. And of course many other nations contribute also.
Ron P.
Well, time will show which of us is right.
Not very much time if you are correct, since the 50 year scenario would show regional problems beyond the historical ones sometime in the coming decade.
The entropy angle is always interesting to me. Everyone always points out the results of a continual increase in entropy over time. What people don't realize is the level of entropy that exists is essentially maximized as it stands for various phenomena and we have to learn to deal with this all the time. For example, the variation in wind speeds is maximum entropy with respect to mean energy content. Similarly, the operation of an amorphous silicon PV cell is maximum entropy with respect to its mean photoresponse. Plenty of the places that we expect to get energy from in the future are already in a maximum entropy state and we have to get used to it. We were really fortunate to have a concentrated form of liquid energy brought to us by randomly placed quirks of geology.
Heat death from entropy increase does not intrigue me as much as the disorder that exists in the world as it stands, existing in this quasi-equilibrium state of maximum entropy.
You are much better at expressing that than I am, but I fear that neither of us has got the right model for communicating it to folks who can't integrate randomness into their intuition.
Dispersive models just feel wrong to people for whom equilibrium systems are intuitive.
How true. There is the model for expressing what we empirically observe, and there is the model that provides the intuitive explanation that everyone can understand. Those may not coincide, and in certain cases never will.
As Feynman famously said: "I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics."
I thought it was "If you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don't understand quantum mechanics".
What you quoted may be a paraphrase of what John Wheeler once said.
What Feynman said was quoted from a book he wrote in 1965 called "The Character of Physical Law".
I will grant that running out without viable alternatives is a pretty consistent theme of Darwinian. I don't mind the fact,however, that he keeps bringing us back to the central question. What kind of life is possible without fossil fuels or with significantly less fossil fuels? His answer would be grim, brutish, and short. I would love to hear others address this head on or at least construct a scenario that seems reasonable based upon current and reasonably projected technology.
I am not talking about business as usual as I am totally on board with the position that BAU is not possible for a whole host of reasons, including fossil fuel depletion. However, it would still be interesting to see what kind of life future people will be living based upon several depletion scenarios, including utilization of solar, wind, etc. What happens when the fossil fuel subsidy for solar and wind substantially disappears?
Besides, if Darwinian's posts bother you so much, just ignore them.
Human beings, however, are not necessarily destined to endure any more than the other thousands of species that have gone and will go extinct.
I agree, and also do not mind being reminded that part of educating on Peak Oil is asking or posing possibilities of the _near_ future (within 50 to 100 years).
Tstreet I respond a bit more general than the technical aspects on some more wind and solar:
There is a possibility that the looming crisis will be perceived less severe.
People spend a large amount of "mind-time" on social connections; let me
postulate that is valid as a general feature all over the world, in all cultures, IF the
population has food and shelter (say GDP 2000 dollars per capita and year and up).
Further if the crisis is played out over decades, it is very difficult for individuals to
understand that it is a crisis: we live in it and dont see it. We usually start our working lives at say 20 and are poor, and get richer and more stable with age. So we might
because of that further not observe that the older were better off 40 years ago - we ourselves are doing better than we did 10 years ago.
But salaries probably will go down, work conditions could get harder again.
Let me show two examples I know. 1) an engineer close to retirement having lived
through the Berlin wall fall. He took same job but as a fix job with a real wage cut afterwards, which he still complains about, he also keeps the old communist memories in high esteem, but is he really unhappy, or does he not have the means to support his family?: no. He is equally happy as I. 2) a young woman in the reception in a hotel in Nepal, on a dollar a day. She worries on health insurance (does not exist) and marriage (too old). But she appears happy (like I). She spends equally much time on social connections as we here. And equally little (?) time as I worrying about the future.
So I think that we might not perceive a slow crisis. And if so, we will not really have a problem. Certainly not considering the social life, which is so important to us humans, and is present in all cultures as a rewarding feature. That will persist.
However, a fast crash is terrible. I guess a repeat of 2008 every 5 years is hardship (like, no heat. No aspirin. Early death, more random. No job. etc.).
And something worse and longer than 2008, is a real crash. Doomers can describe that better than I.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I might not truly believe the above I wrote, but it is a possibility. However, I do believe that there is a real possibility that peak oil might push humanity into a low-energy life-style (pretty obvious). But also more sustainable (for instance, if we become more local, and observe the pollution we might reduce it).
It might also destroy the power of consumerism (again that is the definition of peak oil, kind of), and the possibility might come to fill that void with a richer inner life in individuals, in general.
These are positive effects sometimes mentioned but ofcourse hard to quantify.
That was the positive cheer-leading talk for tonight folks. Goodnight from Europe.
Nice try with that cosmic analogy, but sadly it has some weak spots.
I would also expect people being tired of hearing about the heat death of the very Universe itself, but it possibly wouldn't be 'cuz of bringing it up too frequently. More likely, because it is... trying to find the right word... oh yeah, irrelevant for their everyday lives.
Well, exactly when will the Universe die? It has some trillion years to go, if we are really unlucky, whereas our Sun has only 5 billion more. So, our Solar system's gonna be long dead before Big Freeze happens. Even 5 billion years is a very long time from a human life perspective.
For a change, collapse of our civilization is very relevant, because it can happen in -our- lifetime, not some trillion years down the road. That's why I think it is important to bring up this tough question as many times as possible and I don't think people are paying attention enough yet (and repeating it could get their attention sooner or later)... And they should. It's their life at risk here and now. Or will be soon, not trillion years in the future, when even our bones will be just a cosmic dust.
This is why I find your analogy not quite pertinent and agree with Ron instead. :P
+2 for Doom.
DD
From DoE Predecisional Draft(PDF warning 0.9M)
Creating an Offshore Wind Industry in the United States: A Strategic Work Plan for the United States Department of Energy - 2011 – 2015
DOE has conducted a portfolio benefits analysis to develop a high-level strategy for achieving the Administration’s ambitious goals for transforming the nation’s energy supply. EERE calculations of the potential future energy generation mixture in the United States have found that wind power could contribute both the fastest deployment and highest overall generation contribution of the renewable energy technologies. (Translation: We're running out of time)
Key Points
This chart from the report, showing expected cost trends for offshore wind, strikes me as pure fantasy. If nothing else, oil availability will be going down during this period, making it more and more difficult/expensive to do things.
Gail,
I think it's fair to assume that when oil supply is obviously constrained, the government will dispense with open market policy. They will ration supplies.
An obvious priority would be to short ration automobile transport, fully supply public transport, and fully supply renewable energy projects.
UK protocol is explained in NEP-F document (classified but summary available https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/downstream/emergencies/down_emerge.htm#fsm2).
Fuel crisis = essential services only, truck stops, utilities and then what ever is left is available on the open market but DECC Maximum Purchase Scheme rules limit each purchase transaction to 15GBP/15L.
Agreed.
Their analysis still assumes that these projects can be built with cheap oil. Although wind is considered 'sustainable' the embedded energy of the infrastructure and O&M (operation & maintenance) does not appear to be reflected in their calculations.
I'm still wondering how one (or several) of these fields would deal with a Cat 4-5 hurricane. How many rigs did we lose after Katrina? 60-75? What is worse, is that these offshore fields would be lined up like ducks along the coast - which would be a probable trak for late season hurricanes. SST (sea surface temp) is 25-29C just south of the till quite late in the season.
At on conference I went to back in 2007, one of the concerns was lack of availability for insurance for offshore wind turbines. I don't know if it is still an issue, but I can expect that it is, or that the insurance that is available is very expensive. The cost of windstorm insurance influences the cost of the electricity from the turbines. Also, is not clear that financing would be available if insurance is not available.
Meh, Price-Anderson exists because that part of the energy industry can't get affordable insurance. Government fiat Bay-Bee - Slap "Goldman Sachs" on the wind machines and they'd be too big to fail.
, is not clear that financing would be available if insurance is not available.
I believe Jerome A Paris can provide clarity on that. What with him being in finance and the offshore wind turbine financing business and all.
As the technology matures, better numbers in several areas (including production) can be expected. As good a curve as that illustrated, probably not. I would be more comfortable with 10 to 14 cents/kWh in 2030 even in a good case.
Since the components of wind turbines have low oil energy input (mostly coal, some NGL), much higher oil prices will be a negative but not that significant. They just do not use that much oil ! And much of what they do use can be readily substituted as oil prices rise (fewer helicopters, more boats, etc.)
Alan
The fantasy part is the assumption of using "direct drive superconducting generators" 2025 & beyond.
If that isn't technocornucopia, I don't know what is.
2025 is 15 years out.
The superconducters need not be room temperature. They are connected to the grid, so cooling is certainly feasible.
If the cooling compressors & radiators were placed in the tower and not the nacelle (just send working fluid up perhaps), I could see worthwhile weight reductions as well as a few % higher efficiency.
My own SWAG is the economics will not support super-conducting, but I hesitate to dismiss it out of hand.
Direct drive will come to the US when the GE patent that keeps Enercon out expires. Direct drive is a superior technology IMHO and US wind suffers by it's lack due to GE. The economics of wind will improve when that patent expires.
Alan
When does it expire?
Soon. I am not sure when the clock starts clicking (file date or ?)
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/5083039.html
Variable speed wind turbines.
I think that there are other relevant patents as well as this one (patent attorneys like to slice & dice ideas and spread them over a longer time period).
Best Hopes for Better Wind Turbines,
Alan
It should expire Feb 1, 2011, 20 years from the date of filing.
The application of technology is often paced by waiting the two decades for patents to expire.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_of_patent_in_the_United_States
Best Hopes for Better Wind Turbines,
Alas - pushback.
http://www.windturbinesyndrome.com/news/2010/editorial-big-wind-swindle/
Direct Drive, or gearless is coming sooner than GE or Enercon would like. There is a patent in Canada that is about to go into production. Starting size will be 3 MW and eventually go up to 8 MW off-shore.
I agree about the superconducting. I would be rather cynical whether the cost/benefit will pay out. However, like Alan, I wouldn't dismiss it entirely. I have been wrong before (let's see, that was 1960-something...).
HGrmmmmm.
How well does that downscale to the bergey-sized units?
Huuh? Enercon is making nothing but gearless machines since 1994. Their biggest model (E-126) has 7.5 MW. You can order it today, if you've got the money.
German FIT is paying 0.15€/kWh for 12 years, then 0.035€/kWh. Longer when distance to shore more than 12 nautical miles or depth more than 20m.
People expect to make money with these prices, so offshore windfarms are build.
Are the US so far behind the curve?
"more and more difficult/expensive to do things"
Indeed, and that is exactly why relatively inexpensive things like conservation, insulation, doing without, and, yes, even some wind, will need to take precedence over relatively far, far more expensive things like nukes.
Residents in Newfoundland are cleaning up after hurricane Igor caused flooding, downed trees and power outages Tuesday.
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/09/22/15435786.html
Regards the Arctic.
How may this affect projections of oil supply? Apologies if this has already been covered at TOD, if it has I've missed it (been an unregistered lurker here for some time).
For what it's worth here's my take - feel free to dismiss/disect as appropriate.
1) Specialists are talking about a time-frame of 10-20 years before the Arctic is largely ice-free in the Summer. This still means sea-ice will form in the winter (it will be first-year ice). I don't think that summer ice-free within 5 years is at all realistic.
2) For thermodynamic reasons (heat flow through ice) first-year sea-ice tends to grow to up to 2 metres thickness no more. Thick multi-year ice is thickened due to compression ridging First year sea ice predominates at present in the winter. Dr David Barber is of the opinion that by 2015 the Arctic will largely be denuded of multi-year ice (the thicker more robust ice), he sees this as the main impediment to shipping and gas/oil exploitation.
3) Due to the Transpolar Drift the area off the Canadian Arctic Archipelago may still see compression and ridging, meaning that for some decades it may not be amenable to offshore drilling. That said coastal areas in the Beaufort Sea (Alaska) and off Siberia may be amenable within the decade (if the answer to the following question is "yes").
Can offshore drilling take place in an environment that gets iced to up to 2 metres, where that ice is circulating within the Arctic(Trans-polar drift and Beaufort Gyre)?
i.e. fixed platforms will have to cope with being surrounded by moving ice.
PS most up to date Arctic Bathymetry maps available here:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/currentmap.html
200 billion barrels divided by the current consumption rate of 75 million barrels per day gives 2,666 days of world supply from the Arctic. 2,666 days divided by 365 days per year gives 7.3 years.
However they don't say if that 200 billion is oil in place or is recoverable oil. Recoverable oil is only about 30% of oil in place, so at that rate the Arctic would provide about 2.4 years worth of oil supply for the world - At the current rate of consumption.
I would not recommend going out and buying a Hummer based on the idea that Arctic oil will "save us". (tongue in cheek)
Jon - I think a very important add on to your comment is the time factor. Even if there is X billion bbls of producible oil and if it can be recovered with the existing technology and if the value of the oil can justify its development and if the capital is available to develop it and if the geopolitics are stable enough to allow the development and if the amount of recoverable oil does represent 7.3 years at the current consumption rate, it certainly won't be produced at anywhere close to the rate to deliver 7.3 years of consumption. Consider the many decades it took to produce that much oil from other basins which were much easier to develop than the Arctic. Most here understand PO is not about how much oil is left to produce but at what rate it can be recovered. I've used a silly analogy for my friends who are very math challenged: having $1 million in the bank doesn't make you rich if you can only withdraw $100/week. You have a nice allowance of $5,200/yr but you aren't rich.
Put in another timer frame. If 7.3 years of consumption could be produced fast enough and I decide to get a baby and drive him to school I would not be able since it would already be produced. The baby would stay in school for at least nine years before he could buy a car so if similar amount could be found and produced in antarctica it would also already have been produced.
Thanks Jon,
Doh! I should have done the numbers first.
So at best (even if Gail's economic contraction arguments are proven overly pessimistic) it'll be a slight addition further on along the post-peak downward slope. I'm still sceptical about how they'll cope with winter ice-pack, let alone the general conditions up there. Seasonally ice-free is very likely the best we'll see for a long while yet.
Energy ThinkTank: Iraq,Energy Efficiency Challenges for OPEC
I have written a list of 40 questions banks must answer before investing in new toll-ways
21/9/2010
RTA fails to present business case for M2 widening (part 1)
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1886
New study links political connections to corporate corruption
Well I am shocked! Shocked, I tell you, that corruption exists in the corporate world!!!!!
Not to mention among our public servants!
Anybody who wants to see a well documented example of corruption carried to a ridiculous, even hilarious, extreme should click on the La Times and read the story about the city of Bell scandal.
All I can say is that thier incredible audacity/chutzpah seems to have been just about counterbalanced by thier equally impressive lack of brains.
How they could have been dumb enough to pull such a stunt and still smart enough to get into office should be the subject matter of a great novel and not a few professional papers.....
Captain Renault, your new retirement plan.
Shocked!
How about this from a former GS employee:
Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Compares Working At Bank To Being A 'Fluffer' On A 'Porn Set'
Balloon Seeks Pin
Aardvark, thanks for the link: The article started out like this;
My heart jumped. I thought "hot dog, hear is a man who truly understands. This is going to be a great article. Here is a man who understands our dire fossil-fuel predicaments." Then I read further and my hopes were dashed. Oh the part about the impending collapse was great but I suspect that is not the reason his colleagues thinks he is insane. It is because he is a full fledged conspiracy theory nut case.
And here I wish to make a very important point. And it is not about any conspiracy theory, but about peak oilers, doomers and such who are also conspiracy theorist. That is just fine. That is your prerogative. But do not expect to be taken seriously on any other subject if you hold what others believe to be totally screwball opinions on another subject.
The validity of your conspiracy theory is not what matters at all. But you cannot expect to be taken seriously on one subject when everyone thinks you are a nutcase on another.
Ron P.
which part made you feel he is a "full fledged conspiracy theory nut case" ?
Yeah, I agree with Ron, the guy is a 911 conspiracy theorist. I followed his link to another wacko, Eric Margolis, who among other supporting evidence, offers up this little gem.
Where, oh where, might that wreckage be? Well watch this, reality can be amazing, eh?!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m1wOLJRtkg
When I was in the Air Force we had a six engine jet bomber (B-47) catch fire and burn. What was left could be carried away in the back of a pickup!
Hi Ron, like you I would rather not see distractions like the 9/11 conspiracy stuff brought into these discussions.
But what of his main point:
What can we do to help promote the collapse of industrial civilization?
Should we do what we can to promote collapse?
I know the knee-jerk, easy answer that 99.99999% of the population of the industrial world would offer.
I wonder what less emotional, better informed individuals would say about this objective.
Aardvark, I understand what you are saying. We are destroying the world. Hundreds of species, perhaps more, are going extinct every day. The human population is increasing by about 200,000 people per day, more than the total combined population of all other great apes in the world. The earth is about to become a desert if we keep this up much longer.
Therefore the sooner the collapse the less will be the suffering and the better shape the earth will be left in. Yet I would do nothing to hasten the collapse if it were in my power to hasten it. My conscience would not let me do anything to hasten the death of millions even though I might know that my actions would lessen the misery in the long run.
I would do nothing even while knowing that my inaction would be a decision that would eventually make things worse. I just couldn't, I simply couldn't.
Ron P.
My conscience would not let me do anything to hasten the death of millions
Anything you say?
So there is no connection between using oil and death-hastening of millions? Participation in the US Society and death-hastening of millions? Consumption of various corporate products and death-hastening of millions? Or even support for the various actions of governments and death-hastening of millions?
At what point is just existing not a level of involvement with the death-hastening of millions?
Eric, you could find fault with anything anyone wrote if it was someone you just loved to disagree with. What am I doing to hasten the collapse that you are not doing also? My point is that I am just passive on the issue, I take no action whatsoever.
I fully realize that my just existing is adding to the eventual demise of the world as we know it, just as your existence does. We are both one of almost seven billion. And that is the percentage we add to the world's carbon footprint. Well actually quite a bit more because we both are Westerners, which means we both use a lot more oil. But that is what we do just by living the life we have come to know, trying to live and support our families as best we can.
I simply said I would be totally passive on the issue, take no action whatsoever. I would not know whether my actions would be good or bad, make things better or worse, so I would do nothing. But you find fault with that.
Pray God what are you going to find fault with next?
Ron P.
Eric, you could find fault with anything anyone wrote if it was someone you just loved to disagree with.
You make plenty of posts I don't comment on. What level of paranoia do you have that you think my posting is somehow about YOU?
Your absolutism and black and white positions of 'there is no X' gives the opportunity to provide contrast and ask simple questions that I can only hope the readers reflect on.
And, well, reflecting on "my actions - how much do they contribute to the problems" is something everyone should do.
What am I doing to hasten the collapse that you are not doing also?
I have no idea what you do or what you spend your money on.
I fully realize that my just existing is adding to the eventual demise of the world as we know it, just as your existence does.
I would like to think that I'm doing more net good than bad. I spend my time building biochar reactors (Using the wastestream of water heaters and propane tanks) so that when I warm my location it'll provide building warmth while making something I hope will add to soil fertility and take some CO2 out of the air for a long time. I've prevented over 1000 tons of organic matter from being landfilled and instead is used as compost (by taking local brewpub spent grain). My car spends weeks on its parking slab while I bike - long enough time that the busy-body municipality issues warnings about the car not moving in 30 days. In theory, the hours I've spent making topsoil far exceeds the topsoil "used up" by my existence. But topsoil math is hard, as Barbie once said.
So thanks for asking so I can get up on my soapbox and thump my chest.
But you find fault with that.
*meh* I was riffing off of your absolutism. If you find that pointing out your absolutism is 'finding fault' perhaps you should not try and be so absolute in your statements?
Pray God what are you going to find fault with next?
Your paranoia. You should go get that checked.
Eric, you have my vote for best use of your profile page. I'm trying to find a link to your vote for the best homebuilt biochar reactor plans. I've been sifting the charcoal from my woodstove ashes, but my stove doesn't produce enough charcoal for my needs. I also have other uses for quality charcoal. How fine do you recommend charcoal be for the garden? I've been sifting to 1/2".
BTW, thanks for the link to reusable lids!
my stove doesn't produce enough charcoal for my needs
Back when I was in charge of a steam boiler that used to run off of coal retrofitted for natural gas, that old firebox was able to be stuffed with plenty of metal containers to make char.
But stoves are poor char makers - their goal is burn the material to ash.
best homebuilt biochar reactor plans
Best as in 'what can I cobble together with a pile of scrap I have' - I can't find the plans ATM but he used 2 55 gal drums with standard pipe from the bungs which vented underneath the external fire. placed in a concrete "structure" including cinderblocks with metal pipe through the holes to make a roof. Basic idea here
http://www.flymaker.com/bbGallery/S&G&B4.jpg
My latest contraption is 2 water heaters welded together. Lower one is a jacket that the large (50 lbs?) propane tank goes into, top holds the water which is used for a radiant floor heater. Propane tank modification - 3 inch standard pipe thread welded to top - that's how the stuff gets in/out and its sealed. Anything that makes it out of thew worm bin intact can either be re-introduced to the bin, dried and ground for re-introduction, or goes into the char maker.
The biggest problem was trying to figure out how to determine when the load was done cooking. I've settled on weight - once the tank stops 'changing' its weight - its done cooking. Not much yield - but my "waste" heat needs are modest. The more heat I rob from the flue the more cleaning of tar I have to do :-(
Post char processing - CS Bell no 60 grinder. What size comes out is what goes in the ground. Due to the small retort feed hole, small hunks is what comes out - and they fit inside the hopper of the grinder no problem.
So long as I can nab used old propane tanks and water heaters I can keep the hack going.
Thanks, Eric. Someone tried to get me to haul off a 500 gal fuel tank the other day. I told her it was too far gone to use (as a fuel tank) but it's fairly heavy duty. I told her to call a scrap dealer I know. I think I found a use for it now,,,, better give her a call. I have a good source for course wood chips. I see an opportunity here :-)
Yes, you are correct, being totally passive and saying I am going to do absolutely nothing is an absolute position. After all I did say absolutely nothing.
God help me, an absolute atheist!
Ron P.
Edit: Actually Eric, my post, my reply to Aardvark, could not have possibly been more wishey-washey. Saying I don't think I would do anything is about as wishey-washey as one can get. You just had to make up something to explain why you are constantly criticizing everything I write. So you called a wishey-washey post absolute. Go figure.
As stated yesterday:
That's a great move, posing as a martyr.
Ron, Thank you for your honest and very thoughtful response.
It really is a hell of a quandary. Another issue - who are we to judge "Times Up" ??? Let nature take its course. And besides, how can an ant really hasten the erosion of a mountain, no use tipping at windmills.
Eric made a point I like to bring up with my students - is our pretend "sustainability" program helpful or harmful. Do they realize the cup they just recycled is offset by the milage their dope traveled for their consumption?
Do they understand the costs of participating in our industrial civilization - the costs borne by others alive and yet to be born?
This topic generates an amazing variety of emotions and opinions from uninformed and highly informed.
I'm glad I can ask it and not have to supply an answer ( I remind them science has nothing to say about moral or ethical etc decisions and I am not obligated to give them any "guidelines.")
Local food movement spurs canning trend: Get those jars ready
The secret is in the lids. Lids.
http://www.reusablecanninglids.com/About_TATTLER.html
(easy to tell when the seal fails - you can't lift the jar by the lid)
Eric, thank you for the tip. The lids are recommended for high acid foods, such as pickles and tomatoes. Now that's brilliant, high acid foods account for 90% of my lid use.
The upside for the high acid - the lids don't rust.
(and for the no plastic in my food objection - your regular canning lids are coated in plastic.)
Thanks, Eric! I'm so excited I went and opened a fresh jar of my best pickles. I've been stockpiling lids. The bad part is these are kind of pricey and folks have a bad habit of not returning my jars when I share. I guess I'll have to hoard my pickles from now on ;-)
France to spend 7 billion euros to double rail freight shipments
http://www.france24.com/en/20090916-france-investment-7-billion-euros-ra...
This is in addition to their plans to electrify "every meter" of French rail and "burn not one drop of oil" by 2025. This is from a base of less than half electrified (36% in 2000).
Alan
The most telling statement from the arctic article: (emphasis mine)
But oil companies, are used to working in dangerous and inaccessible regions and ambitious firms are already pressing for the rights to operate in the Arctic, leaving governments to decide what risks they are prepared to accept in return for lucrative energy profits.
Read it again.
GOVERNMENTS are taking risks for THEIR profits?
Really?
What a load of malarky - clearly the only vague resemblance of a braking system on the sheer gleefully suicidal exploitation of the arctic by predatory corporations is government, and obviously, as this article demonstrates, there's really no longer any difference between the corporations and government.
aaaaarg!
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending September 17, 2010 [PDF]
We have been born into and ride upon one of the greatest black swans in geologic/biologic history. If your lifespan were 25,000 years, you would see our expansion and growth not as a great success, but rather a dangerous deviation from the mean.
I don’t see any evidence that we are successfully adapting and integrating into the existing flora and fauna. We have no long-term prospects for survival, as our energy sources are finite in the short term. The gravity of our situation will likely accelerate us back towards the long-term population mean and below.
The black swan is airborne, it’s just a matter of time before it comes in for a landing or for lack of energy/nutrients or trauma, it falls from the sky. But look at the bright side, the black swan is still flapping it's wings against a strong headwind and the birdshot has not yet found its target.
when you say "We have no long-term prospects for survival, as our energy sources are finite in the short term.", what we are you referring to? if it's mass global civilization, then i'd agree with you. but if it's we as in humans, i'd point out that the amount of time we've utilized energy sources that are finite in the short term is trivial compared to the amount of time we've been here.
Cash-Strapped Spain Struggles With High Cost of Power
Who imports how much oil? I found this chart very interesting.
Country Comparison > Oil - imports
Top Ten, imports in barrels per day.
All other countries are listed below these ten, 205 in total.
Ron P.
Holland at 2.4 megabarrels! That data just seems frakked.
You are correct, that cannot be right. France with almost 4 times the population of the Netherlands imports 575,000 barrels less, or almost 25 percent less oil than they do?
Naw, something is wrong here.
Ron P.
Rotterdam is a major oil importing and oil refining center.
Imports yes, net imports no.
Alan
Oh! Thanks Alan. What we really need then is a chart of net imports.
Ron
Ron
EIA shows our imports into the USA at 9.x mbd. The above table shows USA at 13.x mbd. What am I missing?
What am I missing?
Mexican crude re-exported as refined product?
Or just bad reporting.
The table is apparently reporting not only crude oil but condensate from gas wells and refined products, and the volumes are gross imports rather than net imports with exports deducted from them.
This has the potential to be misleading. For instance, the table shows the Netherlands imports 2.465 million barrels per day of crude oil. However, much of that is refined it into products and exported to the other countries in the table. Those countries would show those products as imports, so the same oil would be counted twice, once as crude oil imported into the Netherlands and again as products imported into another country.
Similarly, the table shows Canada importing 1.185 million barrels per day of "oil", and ignores the fact that Canada exports 2.7 million bpd of crude + condensate + products to the US. Meanwhile, the US exports condensate and products to Canada. Which direction the condensate and products flow depends on which side of the border the price is higher.
It has the potential to get even worse. For instance, a lot of Canadian production is extremely heavy oil (bitumen) that is mixed with condensate to get it to flow through pipelines to the US. Canada is starting to be short of condensate, so American refineries may start to fractionate out the condensate and send it back to Canada to dilute more bitumen. The same condensate could cross the border multiple times, and be counted as imports into either Canada or the US each time it goes across.
IMF report
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2010/pn10101.htm
And one reading of it:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-11/u-s-is-bankrupt-and-we-don-t-ev...
Why don't we get real ???
I think Janet Tavakoli explains it best:
(my emphasis)
The Pig People of finance are still very busy burying their poop and skimming the markets to make up their losses.
And Obama bought them 4 years of cover to do it.
"Don't look Back" was a catchy song but is not a good policy for a president who inherits a system laced with fraud.
The inconvenient truth is that OPEC won't meet oil demand
"after forecasting world demand and non-OPEC supply, these models simply assume that OPEC will supply the rest – without taking into account OPEC behavior or considering that OPEC members might not be willing or able to meet the “residual” demand. For this reason, these models estimate what is known as the “call on OPEC,” the difference between estimated world demand and estimated non-OPEC supply.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_...
Working from home and online shopping can increase carbon emissions
TOD also increases carbon emissions. Yet another study demonstrating Jevons paradox. The study actually referenced another study done in 2002 that concluded what you referenced above. It also said that online shopping could be justified if 3.5 shopping trips were saved or if one lived 30km or more from shopping. Of course, one must also take into account whether or not the item ordered is even within the local shopping area.
On the other hand, I would like to see a study comparing the consumption levels of online shoppers versus in store shoppers.
Buying small cars also, according to the study, doesn't have as much impact as one would think because the extra income is just freed up for other energy consuming activities. This would be a good article for a campfire or other discussion.
Want to save energy? Really save energy? Burn your money for heating.
Want to save energy? Really save energy? Burn your money for heating.
Bull. Open a daylight savings account.
Install solar. Passive solar. Hot water solar. PV. Solar ovens.
Save the daylight.
I did not really mean this literally, but the point is that a person with a moderately high income is always going to find other things to consume even if he/she decides to, for example, purchase a fuel efficient car. And these things won't necessarily be low carbon activities. Anyway, the studies are based on what is happening not what might happen.
As an aside, think of all the advertisement for "green" products. Many just use this as a conscience free way of doing what we really want to do, that is, consume. Instead of buying all these "green" products, it would be better if we substituted no products, thus the idea of burning our money.
I got this story on another forum and right off the bat the person submitting it linked to a blog commentary pointing out the obvious fact that it was conducted in the UK, biasing its findings right off the bat, owing to how compact that country is compared to the wide open spaces of larger countries.
When on Amazon I always try to buy from sellers nearby. I wonder if there's a bookstore equivalent of worldcat, where you could find sellers in the neighborhood with a particular tome; and whether that would be lower carbon in the first place.
I recall someone proposing a delivery truck solution to suburan peak oil - panel trucks dump off groceries from supermarkets instead of everyone driving there, saving some huge amount of oil in the process, supposedly, if I'm remembering something I read 3 years ago correctly.
I vaguely remember the vegetable truck coming around once a week as a small kid, although I'm not clear whether that was England, or South Africa.
I do know I could buy a prepacked bag of fresh, seasonal produce off the truck in Cape Town every Friday in 1980 - much more than I could eat myself - I'd usually share with a neighbor.
Interesting.
Still, we aren't going to reduce CO2 emissions as long as we burn oil, natural gas, and coal. And if we don't burn oil, natural gas, and coal, the global economy collapses. What is so hard to understand about that?
Everytime global leaders meet on climate change, the result is a farce, for obvious reasons.
The only reason that Eastern Europe saw a decline in emissions is because their economies collapsed. I'm sure emissions have been rising for some time now.
This is to say nothing of the fact that trade is globalized, and nobody wants to talk about coal production in China because everybody likes their gizmos.
Spare me the arrogant nonsense about saving the planet. It's much too late for that.
The most you can do with regards to AGW is strategic relocation, which incidentally is one way to prepare for peak oil as well.
The planet will likely heal itself once population is down to 1-2 billion, and fossil fuel production declines along with our industrialized economy.
I think 1-2 billion is way to much for this system to support, as degraded and raped as it has become.
Let us hope we can support 400 million.
speaking of conspiracy folks ....
Government Spooks, Some From The Oil Drum, Head To DC To Push Energy Collapse Doomsday Agenda “Think… Gasoline Rationing
"The ASPO Speakers list reveals the identities of some of those commenting anonymously at The Oil Drum and reveals several speakers who are pushing apocalyptic doomsday scenarios, including peak oil, peak gas, peak coal, energy collapse, financial collapse, and hyper-inflation of food costs, all for their own financial benefit.
Not surprising the list of speakers from The Oil Drum include Government spooks with ties to agencies such as the CIA, the Air Force intelligence and Department of the Interior counter-terrorism divisions.
These Government spooks address the FBI’s Anti-Terrorism Advisory Committee, the Chief of Staff of the US Air Force, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission."
"The bottom line here is these doomsday consistory theorists have penetrated many levels of government and are pushing their apocalyptic propaganda even further to strengthen the chains of slavery that hold the masses in bondage to Big Oil.
This runs deep and the masses need to wake up to the fact that another crisis to further oppress the masses is being manufactured under the guise of energy security."
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/09/06/government-spooks-oil-drum-h...
Conspiracy theory? History is much more entertaining. Here is this young man quoting the Air Force Chief of Staff when Lemay recommend how many times to drop the bomb? Was that three or four times? Just one POTUS listened right? Anything the AF Chief of Staff could do now probably pales in comparison, at least without an enemy launch first. What is alex worried about, a carpet bomb strike of the place? These youngins need to hit the history books and read the real stuff before they try to make up much weaker stuff and get us riled up. It is like they are four year olds and they think we really buy this stuff when they tell it to us. Apparently, the youngins need sales training too.
This was posted a few days back.
I'll renew my offer:
if anyone from the spook agencies would like to fund me to educate people on peak oil, please don't hesitate to call me. Let's not disappoint this fellow, after all.
Let's see. Mom was a Japanese slave. So were some Chinese. That one is still a factor I bet. Of course, we know what historians say such conquests were over. Oil. Yeppers the Japanese are having to try and settle WWII stuff again. I sure hope it does not have to end with nuclear weapons again. I pray for peace.
Attention Super G
node/6974 is not working
It seems to be part of a farm of servers. The read servers were fine, the posting servers were under some form of upgrade I bet. It'll all be good by normal morning time.