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DrumBeat: October 18, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 18, 2006 - 9:18am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Major Problems Of Surviving Peak Oil
Rob Hopkins says in "Why the Survivalists Have Got It Wrong" that he has very little time for the survivalist response to peak oil, and refers to "Preparing for a Crash: Nuts and Bolts" by Zachary Nowak.Rob may well be partially right but he, like Zachary Nowak and many other "community" minded people tend to miss or are just in denial with the true reality of what the effects of Peak Oil will really mean.
Has "Peak Oil" Peaked Too Soon?
Disaster struck “Peak Oil” cheerleaders this month as Chevron announced the discovery of massive new oil reserves in the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico. “Dang it!” one expert was overheard shouting while being shepherded from MSNBC’s greenroom. “We’ve been predicting the end of oil for a century now, and it finally looked like we were right. Why won’t people just give up looking for a better future so we can all feel prophetic and important for once?”Okay, I made up that part about MSNBC. Peak oil naysayers would never admit they were wrong or admit that the Chevron discovery is a major blow to their theory. To an optimist, the glass is half full. To a pessimist, the glass is half empty. To a peak oil theorist, the glass is hidden in the next room, but he’s sure it’s damn near empty.
Peak Oil: The Clock Is Ticking
Perhaps the most common response to the peak-oil problem is: "The oil isn't going to disappear overnight. We have a century to prepare." Unfortunately, the fact that the decline in oil is a curve, not a vertical line, makes it difficult to comprehend. What matters is that the serious damage will be done long before we get to those tiny remaining drops a century or so from now. If we look at the forecasts of Petroconsultants Corp., which produces the "bible" of oil data, we can see that in the year 2000 there were five barrels of oil per person per year, but that by 2025 there will only be about two barrels, not five. That's not an "on/off" situation, but at that point the human race should probably wave goodbye to the Oil Economy. The year 2025 is far less than a century from now.
Richard Heinberg: (post-)Hydrocarbon Aesthetics
OPEC looks to clarify oil output cuts in Doha
LONDON - OPEC members have descend on Doha for an extraordinary meeting aimed at finalizing a cut in oil output, but they must overcome divisions that damage the cartel's credibility.
SlashDot discusses that Popular Mechanics article on hydrogen: Crunching the Numbers on a Hydrogen Economy
If we ignore these trends, an energy crisis could be on the horizon for Texas. In fact, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) estimates that the current energy supply could be compromised by 2008 as reserve margins dip below acceptable levels.
Curing the World's Oil Addiction
Developing alternative energy sources now is crucial as more budding economies secure oil supplies from unsavory regimes.
EU losing faith in Russia energy charter scheme
Mexico fuel tanker blast kills 6, more feared dead
MEXICO CITY - An explosion on a fuel tanker in Mexico's Pajaritos petrochemical port complex on Tuesday killed six workers and two others were missing, feared dead, state oil monopoly Pemex said.
Mexico won't increase spending to fight poverty
Mexico must increase investment in Petroleos Mexicanos, the country's state-owned oil monopoly, in order to make existing oil reserves last as long as possible, Carstens said.Output from Mexico's largest field, Cantarell, is forecast to decline by 8 percent in 2006 to 1.86 million barrels per day from 2.03 million barrels per day in 2005, said Vinicio Suro, deputy director of planning and evaluation for Pemex's production and exploration unit, during an Aug. 2 conference call.
Japan's Kyoto gap widens as emissions rise
Statoil Increases Production from Norne
Statoil has installed a new subsea template that ensures improved recovery on the Norne field in the Norwegian Sea. A total increase of 10 million barrels of oil is expected...."Statoil's ambition is to maintain a production level of one million barrels of oil equivalent per day on the Norwegian continental shelf until 2015," says Terje Overvik, executive vice president for Exploration & Production Norway.
HECO blames 3rd turbine crash for O'ahu's blackout
Hawaiian Electric Co. had enough excess power to keep O'ahu lit after earthquakes caused two generators to fail Sunday morning, but when a third, much larger, turbine crashed minutes later, it took the entire island with it....HECO officials said the shutdown of the islandwide system was necessary once the third generator came down to avoid permanent damage to the operating generators. If one of the other generators had been damaged, it could have led to blackouts lasting days or weeks and not hours.
[Update by Leanan on 10/18/06 at 10:55 AM EDT]
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 13, 2006 Oil prices rise after the weekly inventory report shows bulging crude supplies but smaller-than-expected supplies of gas and distillates.
There is some evidence that the EIA is including biofuels such as EtOH in their values.
So to answer your question, Yes, it includes Brazilian ethanol, all other ethanol, and just about any kind of liquid fuel you can dream up. It even includes a little water as Orimulsion is 30 percent water.
Ron Patterson
A Dutch TV show, but the Carre' interview is in English.
To get this to play, check a player in the box to the right, then close the box and the screen will appear.
http://www.vpro.nl/programma/tegenlicht/afleveringen/30565236/media/30728807/
I guess my question is this: Is there some kind of mathematical rule-of-thumb that relates OOIP to significant extraction lifetime, or that perhaps relates the physical dimensions of the field (in 3D, underground) to significant extraction lifetime?
The more straws in the milkshake, the sooner you hear the slurping sounds.
But if some slurpers get head-freeze and their consumption drops there will be a delay until you hear the slurping sounds. And if one person is a head-freeze recessive mutant and therefore can suck down the milkshake at a rate 10X that of everyone else...
sluuuuurrrrrrrrrrrrrp!**
On the oil drum here it has already been reported that some of our ministers are trying to herald E85 as a clean, cheap and efficient solution to transition from oil to our bright future. I usually link these "out of the wild" ideas to our minister of the interior, Nicolas Sarkozy because he takes his orders directly from New York's neocons. This month Paris held a car show in which some discussions arose about gasoline, oil and alternatives. Our minister of industry, Thierry Breton, came in and showed how he switched to E85. He was shown filling his tank from the first and sole E85 pump in Paris. His face was glowing with pride, and he seemed to be very enthusiastic to tell how this was a clean and cheap energy source, priced at 0.8 euros/litre (3.8 US$/US gal).
But last week the French customs came in and simply closed this pump because the origin of the ethanol wasn't clear, it's price wasn't fair and some other minor contraventions. This shows once again that the government controls everything but its right hand just isn't informed over what does its left hand, in a kind of diagonistic apraxia. This will certainly be highlighted over the next months and years to come.
Price here in KC went from $1.93 to $2.09 at the same stations overnight.
That's a bit odd since I've been watching the wholesale price and it hasn't really breached $1.50 for a month or so now. In Kansas City, MO, retail price is about 0.50 above wholesale.
I'm just curious if other cities saw this jump last night and if anyone could explain the jump. Could it be the switchover to winter formulations?
Thanks....
Ron Patterson
I live on the other side of 70 (go cards!). Gas was sitting at $1.98 and bumped to 2.18 yesterday afternoon. I think anything within a $.25 change is pretty normal. Now that's me, but it's still flat looking at the bigger picture. It's going to gyrate around 2-2.25 in my area until Nov IMHO.
I fully expect to see $3 gas by the end of the year. It's kind of like oil right now. It's almost range bound. It's just moving sideways and not really moving up or down week to week, like I believe, until Nov. I'm not going to get into the manipulation camp, but only time will tell.
And then this morning they shot up...just wierd.
Highway 70? Then likely you live in Florissant or nearby 'burbs'. Maybe Hazelwood. Less likely Ferguson(where I went to grade school).
Still $2.04 here in Ky.
Just Gas -
-C.
Currently gasoline is very much undervalued (nationally) compared to it's historical relationship to oil prices. While it might be difficult to manipulate the global oil market in just the right direction at the right time to, say, win an election, it's alot easier to manipulate domestic gasoline prices (at least for awhile).
Prior to 2004, the price of gasoline was pretty closely linked to the price of oil (by that I mean the cost of WTI settlement price averaged over the week). In the late 1990's for a brief time, gasoline's value was much higher relative to oil prices but that was relatively short-lived.
In 2004 (specifically July 2004) gasoline prices and oil prices "de-coupled." Oil prices began to increase at the beginning of July while gasoline prices declined throughout the summer and into the third week of September when they finally began to climb back to price levels seen around Memorial Day of 2004. Oil prices, however, were at levels never seen before and 33% percent higher than they had been during the Memorial Day weekend.
After the 2004 election, oil prices and gasoline prices both fell AND began to track one another again (though with an interesting offset or undervaluing of gasoline relative to historical oil/gasoline price trends).
In this election cycle, beginning in early 2006, there seems to be a similar (but smaller) decoupling of gasoline prices compared to oil price. My guess is that there is only so much cost shifting that can be done for other oil-derived products before you have to raise gasoline prices. But if you can decrease gasoline prices in the short term (masked by decreased oil prices) then you might be able to influence another election cycle.
Based upon historical data, the national weighted-average gasoline price for the week of October 2-6 should have been $2.49/gallon. Based upon the relationship since 2002, it should have been $2.425/gallon. It was $2.31/gallon. When the numbers are released this afternoon, I will update me spreadsheet. However, the oil prices have largely stabilized while the (national) gasoline prices continue to fall.
My guess is that the oil companies don't want to be the source of voter revenge. But watch out for gasoline prices after the election.
We're still paying $2.50 here in CT ..
Triff ..
Do I really want to get involved in this thread? No, not really...
I should imaging the new song for the LSE goes something like this:
[FRAULEIN KOST (spoken)]
Herr Ludwig! You are not leaving so early?
[ERNST]
I do not find this party amusing.
[FRAULEIN KOST]
Ah- but it is just beginning. Come, we will make it
amusing- you and I- Ja?
Herr Ludwig- this is for you:
The sun on the meadow is summery warm.
The stag in the forest runs free.
But gather together to greet the storm.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
The branch of the linden is leafy and
Green,
The Rhine gives its gold to the sea.
But somewhere a glory awaits unseen.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
Herr Ludwig! Sing with me!
[FRAULEIN KOST AND ERNST]
The babe in his cradle is closing his eyes
The blossom embraces the bee.
But soon, says a whisper;
"Arise, arise,
Tomorrow belongs to me"
[FRAULEIN KOST]
Everybody!
[ALL (except FRAULEIN SCHNEIDER, SCHULTZ, CLIFF and SALLY, who stand watching)]
Oh Fatherland, Fatherland,
Show us the sign
Your children have waited to see.
The morning will come
When the world is mine.
Tomorrow belongs to me!
MIT has Lindzen.
If this is it, then its time to call time.
It's sexual, not adaptive selection. We have bigger dicks because women want us to have bigger dicks, not because they help us dig clams or something.
So if dick size is relative to testicle size, (though I don't know if they are or not), then we have gorillas beat by a country mile but lag way behind chimps.
By the way, it all has to do with mating habits. It is all explained in Ridley's book but I won't go into it here.
Ron Patterson
You would have to have read the two pages leading up to the above paragraph to fully understand the "why" of the whole matter. But basically male gorillas use the harem method of procreation. The females only mate with the one male who owns the harem, and they mate only when they are they are capable of conceiving. Chimps on the other hand, mate try to mate with every female in the tribe and the one with the most sperm and the most sexual stamina produce the most offspring. In physical body size, male gorillas are about twice the size of the female but the chimp is only slightly larger than the female.
Humans evolved from the same common ancestor as the chimp, about 5 million years ago. The gorilla linage split from our common ancestor many millions of years earlier. We are obviously much closer to chimps than to gorillas.
In our hunter-gatherer days, when our genitalia evolved, we behaved much more like chimps. But it was during this time that monogamy evolved as well. But then it was much like it is now. Men tried to keep one woman as his own, but mate with as many others as possible. Our genitalia is much larger, per body weight, than the gorilla but still smaller than the chimp. And the male human, like the chimp, is only slightly larger than the female.
Ron Patterson
But I do think penis size is likely a result of female sexual selection. The chimpanzee penis is twice the size of a gorilla's - not 16 times as large. And the human penis is larger than any other primate's, both in absolute size and in proportion to body size.
He didn't discuss human genetalia.
Ron Patterson
I have thought about this a bit more, and now I am not even sure that human male does have a large penis. Horses have big 'uns, as in "hung like a horse", dogs seem about proportionately hung wrt to humans, you can make a golf caddy from an elephants dick (i have heard).
Is it even true that humans have big dicks?
And on the subject of chimpanzees (actually possibly bonobos), I've seen them doing "it" on tv and they have willies like a little carrot - quite small.
Are we drifting off topic?
*Men tried to keep one woman as his own, but mate with as many others as possible* - indeed, and without much success, the world is truly full of blokes looking for casual sex and women who are not offering it. To father many children the best tactic is to be powerful (king is best), rather than have a big dick.