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DrumBeat: October 17, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 17, 2006 - 9:17am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Milestone math adds up to trouble
When the new American is born or arrives across the border sometime today to push the U.S. population to 300 million, don't expect 83-year-old Albert Bartlett to party like it's 1967....Never mind what the get-rich-quick crowd says, he said. "Growth never pays for itself." By every measure - environmental, economic, quality of life - it is a costly proposition.
It all comes down to arithmetic, said the retired professor of physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder. Those who equate growth with prosperity have sold our math-phobic culture a dangerous lie.
Fears that the massive Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia may have passed its prime have been the stuff of speculation for many years. Ghawar has underpinned Saudi Arabia’s dominance of the oil market ever since it came on stream in 1951. With its ability to pump out some five million barrels per day on average, more than half of Saudi Aramco’s total of 9.1 million barrels per day, the slow death of Ghawar may help to ensure that the low oil prices of the 1980s are but a dream for the average consumer.
World's biggest underwater gas pipeline opens between Britain, Norway
U.K.: Nuclear closures threaten supply
The discovery of more cracks in boiler tubes forced British Energy to shut down two plants, Hunterston B in Scotland and Hinkley Point B in Gloucestershire. The company also disclosed for the first time that only one of its eight plants is currently operating at full output.The closure of the ageing 30-year old plants and the extent of the supply cutbacks sent British Energy shares into free fall and raised renewed fears about winter supply shortages. It also dealt a further blow to Government hopes of selling its 65pc holding in the company.
Rising EU demand for biofuel set to bolster crop prices
American oil production in Russia problematical
Like Venezuela, Libya, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and even the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation is discouraging foreign oil and gas investments by taking a big tax bite of the profits.
Arab GDP crosses US$1 trillion for first time ever
Coal shortages hit Western Cape
The industries affected include brick-making, cement, steel, cotton, paper, wine and fruit and fish caning....The coal crisis comes in the wake of the recent blackouts as well as diesel and gas shortages. Taken together it appears that the Western Cape is facing an energy crisis.
EU plans tough laws on energy efficiency
World needs 20 times as many nuclear plants to avoid greenhouse catastrophe
The world needs 20 times more nuclear power plants to avert an environmental apocalypse that could kill billions of people due to global warming blamed on growing greenhouse gas emissions, a top nuclear advocate said Monday.
Lulled by cheap gas, candidates ignore looming energy crisis
Boom in U.S. coal plants poses big questions
DALLAS - A building boom that would add scores of new coal-fired power plants to the nation's power grid is creating a new dilemma for politicians, environmentalists and utility companies across the United States.Should power companies be permitted to build new plants that pollute more but are reliable and less expensive? Or should regulators push utilities toward cleaner burning coal plants, even if it means they will cost more and are based on newer, yet still unproven, technology?
Oil Tax Campaign a Cash Guzzler for Both Sides: More than $107 million has been raised for and against Proposition 87, a state ballot record.
California joins Northeast global warming fight
The sugarcane that ate Tokyo: Japan brewer pursues 'Monster Cane' ethanol dream
It is three meters tall and productive even in poor soil, it holds up in droughts and typhoons, and it yields twice as many stems as most sugarcane. No wonder they call it "Monster Cane."
I mean really, since when did conservation become a public or social virtue?
And as for the people who think the world is like America -
'Meli Luigi, director-general of the European "white goods" manufacturers association CECED, said a voluntary approach to raising energy efficiency had already led to a cut of about 40 per cent in the power consumed by fridges in little over a decade. The industry body fears new rules laid down in Brussels could put manufacturers in a "straitjacket".'
Imagine that - both government mandated and voluntary approaches to saving energy and increasing efficiency. And even after achieving a fairly impressive reduction, continuing to push harder instead of claiming to be number 1.
The history of how Greenpeace marketed and sold its own completely CFC free refrigerator on the open market is yet another way to see change in action - the link at http://xs2.greenpeace.org/~ozone/greenfreeze is not exactly unbiased, but it is accurate -
'In the spring of 1992 Greenpeace brought together scientists who had extensively researched the use of propane and butane as refrigerants, with an East German company DKK Scharfenstein. The company had been producing refrigerators for 50 years and was the leading household appliance manufacturer in the former East Germany. After reunification, however, it faced severe economic problems and was due to be closed down.
The meeting between the scientists and DKK Scharfenstein resulted in the birth of 'Greenfreeze' technology for domestic refrigeration. Greenfreeze refrigerators use hydrocarbons for both the blowing of the insulation foam and the refrigerant and they are entirely free of ozone destroying and global warming chemicals.
........
The major household appliance manufacturers, who had already invested in HFC-134a refrigeration technology as the substitute for CFCs, at first claimed that the 'Greenfreeze' concept would not work. However, upon realizing that the first completely -CFC, HCFC and HFC-free refrigerator was about to come on the market, and recognizing the market appeal of a truly environmentally friendly refrigerator, the four biggest producers, Bosch, Siemens, Liebherr and Miele gave up their resistance to the hydrocarbon technology, and introduced their own line of 'Greenfreeze' models in the spring of 1993.'
More than ten years later, major appliance manufacturers still consider it a positive selling point to mention how they manufacture their products in this manner - our new Liebherr refrigerator certainly proclaimed it in any number of ways, from the brochure to the packaging to the owner's manual.
I realize that this doesn't resolve any big picture discussions, but the U.S. is not the entire world.
It's quite difficult to make that happen. I'm not exactly sure of the Constitutional process, but there has to be a Directive, and it has to be Enacted.
So don't hold your breath, the EU does nothing in a hurry. We are better at producing hot political air than real legislation or change.
This one will happen, if it happens, because at the consumer and voter level, the EU citizen cares enough to make it happen.
I'm sure our politicos will go back to arguing about 'important' things, like whether 8 million Bulgarians get EU work permits when they join the Union.
Generally, most Americans who fit into the doomer camp seem to find it hard to imagine that societies can actually plan for the future and then implement those plans.
Obviously, entropy wins out in the end, which is why the catabolic collapse perspective seems an interesting tool for analyzing such essentially universal processes, but in my opinion, the idea that everything ends is not all that insightful.
In other words, to quote William Shatner -
Live life
Live life like you're gonna die
Because you're gonna
I hate to be the bearer of bad news
But you're gonna die
Maybe not today or even next year
But before you know it you'll be saying
'Is this all there was?
What was all the fuss?
Why did I bother?'
Now, maybe you won't suffer maybe it's quick
But you'll have time to think
Why did I waste it?
Why didn't I taste it?
You'll have time
Because you're gonna die.
Yes it's gonna happen because it's happened to a lot of people I know
My mother, my father, my loves
The president, the kings and the pope
They all had hope....'
A great song, actually. Goes well with the one he wrote about finding his wife drowned in their swimming pool, or the one about how he is not the man to call if an asteriod is about to smash into the Earth.
'....I tell you who else left us
Passed on down to heaven no longer with us
Johnny Cash, JFK, that guy in the Stones
Lou Gehrig, Einstein, and Joey Ramone
Have I convinced you?
Do you read my lips?
This may come as news but it's time
You're gonna die
You're gonna die
By the time you hear this I may well be dead
And you my friend might be next
'Cause we're all gonna die'
I know this isn't PO, but it's science and I know many of those around here like this stuff.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=a7Ouhw08eaow&refer=china
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ec0a51a8-5cf8-11db-9d15-0000779e2340.html
There's some info on the strength of the dollar recently. If you haven't been paying attention it was down near 84 and now it's at 86.5 over the last few weeks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8A9B3C68%2DF82C%2D497D%2D951C%2D6E2D831096F 4%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo
So the FED isn't cutting rates in spite of the zany housing market. Many here have pointed out the lunacy of putting cities in the desert.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/16/AR2006101600268.html
I never heard of such a game. You can convert fake money into real? Leave it the IRS to come up with a way to tax it. WTF?
Someone should create a virtual world which lives up to the cornucopian dream--unlimited energy and other resources--and it lasts forever (Well, maybe only until the power goes out in the real world).
Peak Oil Game
If we had that, we'd have a great model depending on the various iterations possible. Instead of a game it could be real world and disturbing to many people. Can you imagine sugar coating it though, and feeding it to the masses as they look in disbelief?
These are the data at the moment, no need to invent a game.
Better to invent a doomsters game because the real world is currently a cornucopians wet dream.
Just the data, things may change for the worse, or not.
If we really care about us, we should at least see what is acutally there at the moment before worrying about the future.
And of course, there is the question of whether or not the measures of material well being we can make are indicative of people's lives.
And then there is the most important issue, which is whether or not material well being is even what we should be concerned with (beyond basic lving standards).
Things are getting better for most people, and the poor are seeing the greatest improvements in material wellbeing.
This is not to say that we are "happier" or "more fulfilled" or that our lives are more "meaningful", but the people of the world are better provided for than ever before.
I never forget that the happiest people on Earth are recorded to be the Nigerians, and Nigeria really is a poverty and violence ridden country, but I was talking about "material wellbeing". Also intersting to note that "happiness" seems more correlated to relative than absolute income, but that's not the point I was making.
Take a look - the third world is booming - see it and celebrate it.
We can go through them one by one.
I am willing.
You list all the reports, then we will agree a subset of them that are relevant, then have a look at them.
This will take months, but I am willing.
I look forward to your list of reports.
You're the one making the claims. You should be the one doing the proving and providing your source material from which you've drawn your conclusions.
Still, if you really are interested you might want to check out some of the very good papers at the UN site (we are in the midst of their effort to halve poverty by 2015.
Here's one I found particularly interesting -
http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2006/wp20_2006.pdf
In fact it is by Simms and nef - no more reliable than Exxon.
The UN publishes (and vouches) hundreds of papers every year that deal with this, but that is not one of them.
Looks like you are more interesting in negating something that you think might go against your preconceived notions. Did you even look at the paper? I suggested it because of the discussion in it, some of which might actually support your position.
Please, if you want to have a discussion about this, at least do me the favor of participating in a conversation, not simply making your pronouncements.
Wow, It might , maybe just a little look like some of the Upper income places in America and a few other European like states of the world. But have you looked at the other 5 billion or so people.
I can have fun with thought puzzles and my odd fiction all day, but when I stop, I remember the real world outside my door. The Only thing above that you got right was I AM TALLER than my parents, oh and I have gone to more schools, but my life experience, The best part of my education is lacking a lot of the things I have to ask them about and don't have time to learn it all.
I keep seeing the guys living under the Overpasses in Huntsville Alabama, Where I-565 goes through town. I see Shanty towns In cities, villages, wide spots in the roads all over the world.
I haven't gotten the impression that you have travelled much or lived in the third world. China and India have been growing close to 10% a year, pulling tens if not hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
Above the etc etc etc part was where my post was mostly centered at.
But no I have not lived in the Third world. I know people from there. Some may be getting better which I don't doubt.
The world is a big place and I don't think "nearly everyone" can be that true. We have Africa torn by wars, Genocides, Russia collapsing from the inside out, I forget the news article It was posted here or while I was reading google, that talked about the next ten to 20 years of where Russia would be. AIDS is in Africa, China, Russia in far greater numbers than most people realize.
So while we are making improvements one place we are making large back slides other places.
My thoughts are that the improvements aren't going to be able to counter balance the down turns.
I am not seeing as rosy a picture as he was painting.
I would by some, be classed as a doomer, But I like a practicalist better.
'poverty' is internationally defined as less than $1 per day of income.
The average rural wage in China is about $450 per annum. The average urban wage is about $1800 pa, but of course Shenzen, Shanghai and that pull the averages up enormously.
India has a GDP per head of about 1/3rd of China.
We still live on a very poor planet.
My comment said that economic growth in China and India are pulling tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people out of poverty.
If you use the $1 per day definition, I am sure my comment is accurate.
You would be hard pressed to demonstrate that the overall poverty rate has improved. Indeed, if you measure by the difference between the poor and the wealthy, that gap continues to get wider.
However, if one is a poor Chinese farmer living on less than a dollar a day who can increase their earnings to $2 a day, would you really be all that bothered that the middle class are doing even better.
If the percentage of people and/or the absolute number living in poverty has improved, that alone is good.
My point was that growth in East Asian countries has reduiced poverty. I don't dispute that some other regions have not made similar progress.
Asian countries with rapid growth rates in the 1980s and 1990s such as Indonesia and Thailand succeeded in reducing the number of people in poverty enormously. Korea was a poor country in the 1960s, behind the Philippines, but put down years of 10% growth. China, India are now Vietnam doing the same.
You are sitting in Florida outsourcing US jobs, if I recall correctly. You can try arguing with me based on facts, but questioning my background, when you know nothing about it is a weak approach.
Try naming one country that has grown at 10% over any significant period - say five years - and hasn't reduced its poverty rate.
China, India. That would be about it, because 10% growth rates aren't real common. Don't believe me? Go check it out, neither country has made significant inroads against poverty.
What you don't know is that I, too, have lived overseas and travelled fairly extensively. And I've see things quite differently than you have.
As for my job, yeah, you're right that I work for an outsourcing company. Funny how you jumped to the conclusion that we "outsource American jobs." To me this demonstrates a couple things, you're prone to jumping to conclusions based on pre-conceived notions and two you don't speak like someone with any significant expat experience.
Did some countries reduce their poverty rates over the past few decades, damn right. Did this change the poverty rate across the globe? Why don't you go check this out instead of assumming that because some people get out of poverty that everything is rosy.
You started this by wrongly jumping to the conclusion that I hadn't travelled. You also haven't addressed my points that Korea, Thailand and Indonesia have had rapid, near 10% growth for extended period, which drastically reduced poverty.
Economic growth in China has indisputably lifted large numbers of people out of povery, although there have been downsides as well. Indian growth is more recent, but you and your outsourcing brethren can take credit for boosting the Indian middle class.
When you said recently you worked for the largest outsourcing company in the US. It is hardly "jumping to conclusions" that you are outsourcing US jobs. You haven't tried to deny it, so apparently the obvious conclusion was also accurate.
That is the crux of the Peak Oil situation. Without an ever increasing energy input (and especially with an increasing population), continued improvements in the areas you describe are not possible.
Someone should create a virtual world which lives up to the cornucopian dream--unlimited energy and other resources--and it lasts forever (Well, maybe only until the power goes out in the real world)."
Sim City, old skool. At the beginning of the game you issue bonds at a negative rate, keeps money pouring in and then you build to your heart's content. :)
Do not think that this is the last or the first time you will hear about it. I have been playing Online games since the days of MUD's and BBS's and IRC ( Multi-User-Dungeons or Dimensions; Bulletin Board Service; Inter-Relay Chat ). About 2001 with the advent of a second wife who wrote code for a MUD, I found out that there was a whole underground economy already florishing around the whole world of money in the game or items for money in the real world, or even items.
The current game that I play has banned this form or real world bleed over, being rather strict about it, making it go even deeper underground, Maybe that is the point, or even a good thing.
But MindArt was designed to be a mirror of the real world economy to make it the first of its kind. I have not read a lot about it, but the concept seems cool, not that I have any real world money to invest.
So remember the MSM just finds out about these things a bit slower than the Gov't funding agencies, so see it soon at a TAX-Stand near you.
Wages earned? Tips? Trades? Online gaming gains? In game gold earned?