DrumBeat: October 16, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 10/16/06 at 9:19 AM EDT]

A Power-Grid Report Suggests Some Dark Days Ahead

Companies are not building power plants and power lines fast enough to meet growing demand, according to a group recently assigned by the federal government to assure proper operation of the power grid.

The group, the North American Electric Reliability Council, in its annual report, to be released Monday, said the amount of power that could be generated or transmitted would drop below the target levels meant to ensure reliability on peak days in Texas, New England, the Mid-Atlantic area and the Midwest during the next two to three years.

Norway warns on energy transparency

Norway’s foreign minister has warned that achieving financial transparency in the murky world of oil and other national resources has become more important, but also more difficult in the past two years.

As the oil price has trebled, governments of oil-rich states, Russia, Venezuela and Bolivia, have wrested more control over their precious resources from international companies, and willingness to disclose the revenue stream they have created has diminished.


Rising building costs pose threat to oil sector growth

ABU DHABI - A surge in building costs is threatening expansion projects by oil producers and could cause long-term problems for the industry, Arab producers said.


The news and the markets

Global oil production appears to have hit a plateau at 85 million barrels per day. This confirms the peak oil theory that the production of the world's easily recoverable hydrocarbons has, in fact, peaked. So what comes next?


Nuclear Energy — What Future for Oil?

The commodity markets' old saying that prices that go up like a rocket, come down like a bomb, seems to be nearer to the truth .... Energy security is of paramount importance today, as the success of global and national economies is more dependent on a consistent and timely supply of energy. At the same time, there is an increased sense of energy vulnerability and concern about the future availability of reasonably priced energy. The social, economic and political impacts associated with either natural or man-made disasters in the energy sector are vast, allied with a realization that energy infrastructure and supply chains are becoming complex and globally interrelated.


Beware Russia, energy superpower: Putin’s control of oil and gas may bring the West to its knees


Shell CEO says Sakhalin issues fully addressed

Royal Dutch Shell has fully addressed all ecological issues at its Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project and is confident it can resolve outstanding matters with Russia's government, its chief executive said on Monday.


Closing the Book on 2005: EIA Revises 2005 US Oil Usage from Decline to Gain


IEA chief surprised OPEC worried by price fall

"I am surprised OPEC is worried about the level of prices," IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil said in an interview with La Tribune newspaper released ahead of publication on Monday.

"Of course, (prices) have fallen significantly over the past month, but they had reached completely absurd levels," he added.


OPEC lowers oil demand forecast for 2006


EPA relaxing environmental rules for ethanol plants

CHICAGO - As President Bush promotes ethanol as a green alternative to gasoline, his administration is quietly relaxing environmental rules for dozens of new corn-to-fuel refineries sprouting up across the nation.


The Other Oil Threat

In 2006, OPEC's trade surpluses will match those of developing Asia, at a time when the U.S. is vulnerable to financial machinations.


World’s Largest Carbon Sequestration Project Approved


Branson asks Brown to cut duty on fuel to power green trains

Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Trains business is close to winning a concession from Gordon Brown that will launch the UK's first biofuel-powered rail service.


IEA chief: Europe and United States should import ethanol from developing world

Very important news. Finally someone with some authority is saying it: instead of producting it themselves and subsidizing it like mad, the United States and the European Union should import ethanol and biofuels from the developing world. Making it themselves is not good for the environment, nor for the economy as a whole, and even less for individual consumers. These are the words of Claude Mandil, chief of the International Energy Agency.


Indonesia dumping sludge from mud flow

JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesia began dumping mud surging from a gas exploration site in central Indonesia into the sea on Monday, hoping to minimize destruction from the disaster that has submerged entire villages and displaced thousands.


Algeria agrees oil windfall tax


Groups question nuke plant terror risk

JACKSON, Miss. - Environmental groups opposed to expanding a nuclear power plant accused federal regulators of failing to publicly address whether the project would increase the risk of terrorism.


General Motors says China sales rose 36.7%


Thousands of small generators

TORONTO - Leonard Allen, who runs a small solar panel company here, finally has something good to tell callers, he says. For the first time, he can promise it won't take 50 years to recoup the money they spend on a rooftop solar system.


Unholy trinity set to drag us into the abyss

We are about to experience the convergence of three of the great issues confronting humanity. Climate change, the peaking of oil supply and water shortage are coming together in a manner which will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions and our ability to prosper on this planet. Each is a major issue, but their convergence has received minimal attention.
Don't Worry.  Bush is Satan and Allah and his merry band will take care of him.

We are a world of antz in smoke, and our "leaders" fear or worship imaginary monsters no different than the greeks or romans did.

Things do not look good for the home team...  (any home team).

=====

Iran leader in Bush 'Satan' claim  

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reportedly delivered a scathing attack on US President George W Bush, saying he is inspired by Satan.

Speaking to a group of supporters, Mr Ahmadinejad said he himself had inspirational links to God, Iranian media reports...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6055834.stm

Bush's "Petro-Cartel" incompetent ?

=======

CHINA PREPARES TO EXPLORE FOR OIL IN IRAQ

WASHINGTON [MENL] -- China has been preparing to explore for crude oil in Iraq.

An Iraqi executive said Chinese companies have dismissed security threats and plan to drill for oil in Iraq. The executive said Iraq approached China to participate in the project.

Dathar Al Khashab, general manager of Midland Refineries Co./Daura Refinery, told the American Petroleum Institute annual meeting in San Antonio, Texas that China was approached after U.S. companies refused to work in Iraq. Al Khashab did not provide details of the oil exploration projects offered to China.

"Please help," Al Khashab told U.S. oil executives. "Please be brave enough to go to Iraq. Don't just sit there and wait on the opportunity."  

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2006/october/10_17_3.html

China is the 800 pound gorilla, and nobody messes with China. That being said, China probably plans on a gazillion mile pipeline to send the oil straight to the Homeland, and having the worlds largest army, will post troops every half mile or so to protect it.
I've had my kill-a-watt monitor for a while, and wrote some on-line cacluators to go with it:

http://www.odograph.com/experiments/php/kcalc.html

It's the cat's pajamas when it comes to understanding your energy use ... as this excellent article illustrates:

http://digitalcrusader.ca/archives/2006/10/household_energ.html

The author comes to an intesting conclusion with regard to conservation for co2 reduction.

found by way of:

http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=571

Odo;
 Just got a Kill-a-watt myself.  Great little tool!  

I would like to see a panel in the house that just displays all the current running down at the box.  It's so easy to let the power just run invisibly, but if you have an intentional, in-your-face reminder that you're actively spending money through everything that is on, I think it would be a great reminder to shut stuff off.  Sounds like one more gadget, and it is.. but I think it could be a worthwhile one.

  There was similar talk some months ago about a display on your dashboard, telling you how efficiently you are operating your car, just like the Hybrids have.  Don't you think this would almost become a game that (some) drivers would play, keeping that consumption down?  I think a lot of people surely love to buy, love to consume, live 'Big',.. but so many of us are also essentially cheap bastards, and go to lengths 'for a discount', 'to get a deal..'

My answering machine cordless only draws 2 watts standby, and 4 when the speaker-amp is on.. >> now, that times the 4 years or so that this one has been plugged in nonstop..  priceless!

The ScanGauge is compatible with most cars and trucks made after 1996 and will display your instantaneous and trip MPG:
http://www.pureenergysystems.com/store/ScanGauge/FAQ.htm
Fine looking device.  Not bad for $165!

You use one?

"I would like to see a panel in the house that just displays all the current running down at the box.  It's so easy to let the power just run invisibly, but if you have an intentional, in-your-face reminder that you're actively spending money through everything that is on"

  I have one of them thar things. Actually, the meter, which runs both ways and tells me how much I am producing or consuming at the moment.  There's another meter on the solar inverter, telling me how much I am making.
  You're right; getting the readings from the inverter has prompted me to change some habits, trying to get the meter to move backwards. Easiest thing to do was to put all my entertainment stuff on a switched surge protector, which easily gives me the option to kill all those stand-by lights....
==
Even turning a television off completely rather than leaving it on standby can save a significant amount of electricity -- and with it money, Lawrence said.

"That little RED dot is costing you a lot," she said
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061006/sc_nm/environment_life_dc_1;_ylt=AvSpf2LUfL6Npwz1Oshsn11rAlMA;_y ...

 I also figured out that I didn't need to play my TV thru the stereo. It became a habit to have both going, but who needs to hear Keith Olbermann in 6 channel surround sound? TV sound is good enuf for that. Only need sound to shake the house when I have a concert DVD on.

Rat

You can not tell me watching Black Hawk Down (won the award for best sound that year) is the same sound on the TV as the 5.1?  Feeling explosions just does something more than hearing them.  One thing I know I will miss is high fi audio equipment for both cars and the home.
One thing you may gain is live drums from close proximity - I've had the chance to hear and play (with) some large taiko drums - talk about feeling the music!
"You can not tell me watching Black Hawk Down (won the award for best sound that year) is the same sound on the TV as the 5.1?  Feeling explosions just does something more than hearing them"

:>)
 No, I can't. Nor Lord of the Rings. Nor any outer space show.

  I won't miss high fi, cuz I have solar, and I have concert DVDs. (And lots of other, less high tech, forms of stored music. Even something from the last century called  "records".)

My folks live about as close to ground zero of that earthquake that hit Hawai`i yesterday as you can get and still be on dry land.  It was 7am local time, but they were already up and about.  My mom was at the gym.  My dad was outside spraying petrochemicals around, trying to get the yardwork done before settling in front of the TV for football. (Due to the time zone difference, Sunday football starts at breakfast time in Hawai`i - at 8am.)

Dad noticed the earthquake.  Everything swayed, and tons of leaves flew off the big lichee tree in the front yard.  But he's a little hard of hearing, and apparently didn't hear things crashing in the house.  He didn't even go inside to check it out.

The power went out when the quake hit, so Mom came home from the gym.  (Guess you can't exercise without electricity.  ;-)  She pulled into the garage and saw everything on the garage shelves had fallen off.  

Then she went inside, and found total chaos.  In the kitchen, all the food had fallen out of the fridge and cabinets.  Dishes and jars were smashed.  Pictures had fallen off the wall.  There was cracking along the base of the house walls.  The closet doors had fallen out.    

Of course, the biggest problem, from Dad's POV, was that with no power, there was no football.  However, the electricity did come back on in time for the Sunday night game (an afternoon game Hawai`i time).  

O`ahu, where most of the population of Hawai`i lives, was without power a lot longer.  Apparently, the problem was software that shuts down the entire grid when there's a shortfall.  Though only two generators (out of 11) actually went offline due to the quake, all of them were automatically shut down.

Because Hawai`i gets its water from artesian wells, without power, there's no water, either.  Tourists were in a bit of a panic, rushing to convenience stores to buy bottled water.  Many of the locals stood in line for hours to buy food and drink from lunch wagons. Home Depot was one of the few stores that stayed open; guess they just fired up some of their generators.  They sold out of batteries right away, but reportedly still have propane and charcoal.  

Airplanes were allowed to land in Hawai`i, but could not take off.  Without power, the security machines couldn't run, so no one was allowed to board outgoing planes.

Some buildings partially collapsed, including the hospital where my sister worked part-time when we were in high school.  A structures engineer said the shaking had turned some concrete into powder; he described it as a "mini 9/11."  

Highways are closed due to rockslides, and as many as 170 bridges on the Big Island may be damaged.  Engineers are being flown in from the mainland to inspect them.  Hotels have been asked to keep tourists as close to the hotel as possible, since the roadway infrastructure may not be safe.

Only a few gas stations were open; they attracted long lines.  Many limited purchases to $20, and/or accepted cash only.  

Some grocery stores opened for emergency purchases.  People were escorted in one at a time, guided by an employee with a flashlight.  Hundreds lined up outside.


No lights in Honolulu last night, except from cars
Thanks for that fascinating report, Leanan.  Remarkable that your folks were so involved, glad they're OK.
And I know that you know this, but I always like to point out that Global Warming makes earthquakes more likely in a shorter timeframe because of the shift in load structure on the continental plates as the glaciers melt into the oceans.  Rock n' Roll...
Interesting report, Leanan. I have still not heard from my own sister there, although I'm sure she's fine.

A bicycle-riding poor person (as I was there for a few years) who had some food and water stored wouldn't sweat the situation. But almot everyone has to have their STUFF and their football or Life As They Know It has come to a stop or something. Almost everyone there is determined to be even more nature-hating and oil-guzzling than on the Mainland.

Looking at my earthquake and hurricane experiences, I sweat stuff like this a lot less than younger people who've never done without STUFF, and some of the old-old folks, who were through WWII and worked on the plantations as kids and all that, probably no sweat at all. I think of one old math teacher who wanted us to, if he had his way, run a couple miles before class "for discipline" and who spoke Pidgin so thick I often had to translate for the girl who sat next to me.

One more very interesting day of news stories, Leanan.  WSJ section is preaching conservation of gas and electricity, power grid failures are imminent in the MSN, another big US natural disaster in this earthquake, ominous Arab concerns over new oil project development costs, and grassroots electrical generation looking to be the answer.  Thanks for your personal report concerning the earthquake and good luck to your family as they go forward.  Why I keep coming back to this website is to confirm in my own mind that this is really happening and thanks to all of the contributors here, day after day the evidence is there.
Thanks.  I was really surprised that all the food fell out of the refrigerator.  Fridge doors generally don't just fall open.  But they weren't the only ones.  Apparently, a lot of people had all the food fall out of their fridges.  Must have been some shaking.  

Thanks for the "on the ground" reporting, too.  Can't get that kind of coverage on the MSM.
Doors frequently open in big quakes. Appliances and furniture can actually walk across the floor during a big one.
i have some friends on the big island in the same area. i heard the usual stories of broken glass, cracked foundations, and flying t.v.'s, but the most amazing story i heard was from a gentleman on a morning walk on paniolo ave. in waikoloa village , about 10 miles from the epicenter. he said that he heard this low frequency roaring sound that originated from the ocean to the southwest, like a loud, very low flying commercial jet. the sound increased , and came towards him. when it seemed to be overhead, the shaking commenced. i've heard of roaring noises associated with earthquakes, but have never heard of this approaching roar before an earthquake.
I heard just such a sound before a ~M4 temblor on the Hayward Fault in the SFO Bay Area. Very frightening. It's as if the ground is some sort of roaring monster that is about to pounce. The tension is so high that, when the shaking hits, one is compelled to leap through the roof (figuratively, of course, though I suppose the roof could drop onto you! ;o).

-best,

The 1987 swarm of quakes in SoCal were interesting, I got used to aftershocks that would have made the news on their own. I had an apartment and could not afford a bed, so I slept on the floor, I remember one aftershock kind of rolling me around on the floor, and I could hear grinding noises below me. I kind of half woke up and noted I was rolling around with no effort on my part, and that the grinding noises were from below, and fell right back to sleep.
   Leanan, We are in kauai and the shaking was so intense i turned to my wife and said there is no way this was on the Big Island. We are 500 miles away! Shows how much I know. It must have been intense locally.
Is Bush getting ready to cut and run?  Should we all be looking to buy some land in Northern Paraguay?

Bush Buys Land in Northern Paraguay

Buenos Aires, Oct 13 (Prensa Latina) An Argentine official regarded the intention of the George W. Bush family to settle on the Acuifero Guarani (Paraguay) as surprising, besides being a bad signal for the governments of the region.

Luis D Elia, undersecretary for the Social Habitat in the Argentine Federal Planning Ministry, issued a memo partially reproduced by digital INFOBAE.com, in which he spoke of the purchase by Bush of a 98,842-acre farm in northern Paraguay, between Brazil and Bolivia.

The news circulated Thursday in non-official sources in Asuncion, Paraguay.

D Elia considered this Bush step counterproductive for the regional power expressed by Presidents Nestor Kirchner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro.

He said that "it is a bad signal that the Bush family is doing business with natural resources linked to the future of MERCOSUR."

The official pointed out that this situation could cause a hypothetical conflict of all the armies in the region, and called attention to the Bush family habit of associating business and politics.

ef ccs tac rmh

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BEBA55617-2676-4091-ABBC-20650EB6FEE1%7D)&language=EN

  My guess is that Bush is looking for a hidey-hole where he can't be extracted for war crimes. According to the Lancet, the British Medical Journal, there are 655,000 Iraqui war dead since the invasion with all of the reasons for war discredited as lies. And Paraguay is most famous for being a sanctuary for the German National Socialist war criminals.
   With the Neocons it is necessary to watch what they do, not listen to what they say.
My guess is that Bush is looking for a hidey-hole where he can't be extracted for war crimes.

Spot on.

Move in next door to Mengele's kids. That should be safe.

I'm reminded of Steve Sailor's (www.iSteve.com) comments on the probable future of the US when I read about this.

Steve Sailor feels the US is simply going to follow the trends of other American countries, a trend that's proceeding south to north: a widening of the rich/poor gap, wealth being concentrated by a small wealthy elite, and a majority brown-skinned populace with the elite being white.

His writings are worth reading, he talks about trends where the white working class in the Americas tends to marry whenever however whoever, which leads to a blending with other working class people of whatever race, leading to a sort of homogeneous, blended, brown or brownish, working class. Meanwhile, the elite are marrying for the establishment of power links and for elite-group purity, hence a preservation of white european heritage and even a "whitening" of the ruling class.

His stuff is really worth checking out.

Personally, I feel Brown Is Good, except for far northern regions, melenin is a good thing to have. I have some but wish I had more.! I'd much rather look forward to a future where if races live in the same geography, they'd tend to blend, rather than the predicted racial caste system Sailor talks about. Sailor is dismissed as a "nazi" by some I think, because to talk about race at all in the Empire gets dismissed as such. But I think things like this are important to read and discuss, because I think Sailor correctly forecasts that the class stratification in the US will become worse, not better.

Also probably lots of biofuel opportunities in the tropics...he will probably have his own ethanol plant contructed.
correction:  "constructed"
Think they can still get Gregory Peck to play him in the miniseries?  "The Bush Boys from Brazos"

It's all gud.. now get the heck outta Maine!

I read this early this morning and got nothing out of it. They want to buy land in Paraguay and that's it.  All the other hyperbole is useless.  

We can speculate on what's the motivation, but that's about it. Either they intend to be sitting on some valuable natural resources, or they want to live there when they quit politics (yeah right), they want to sell it later in pieces and make money, they will flee there when TSHTF.  I know I missed a bunch of them, but what does this really tell us?

Anyone in the MSM picking this one up?

Is it hyperbole, or conjecture?

If it looks like a 'Duck and Cover', and sounds like a 'Duck and Cover' It might BE a fleeing would-be war criminal ..and it might not then be so useless to test your intuition and keep it working.

"now Besides Witches, what else floats in water?"
Arthur: "A duck!"

Im curious for sure.  When Bush gets away with the BS he has already, whats moving to another country to guarantee his safety really matter?  The damage is done.
"Burn her!"
One thing was leading to the next
I bit off more than I could chew
I had the power to sign the cheques
It wasn't difficult to do
I couldn't stay and face the music
So many reasons why
I won't be sending postcards
From Paraguay

I robbed a bank full of dinero
A great big mountain of dough
So it was goodbye companero
And cheerio
I couldn't stay and face the music
So many reasons why
I won't be sending postcards
From Paraguay

I never meant to be a cheater
But there was blood on the wall
I had to steal from peter
To pay what I owed to paul
I couldn't stay and face the music
So many reasons why
I won't be sending postcards
From Paraguay

Mark Knopfler
Postcards from Paraguay


Two men say they're jesus - one of them must be wrong
Theres a protest singer singing a protest song - he says
they wanna have a war to keep us on our knees
They wanna have a war to keep their factories
They wanna have a war to stop us buying japanese
They wanna have a war to stop industrial disease
Theyre pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
They wanna sap your energy incarcerate your mind
They give you rule brittania, gassy beer, page three
Two weeks in espana and sunday striptease
Meanwhile the first jesus says Id cure it soon
Abolish monday mornings and friday afternoons
The other ones on a hunger strike hes dying by degrees
How come jesus gets industrial disease

   A little Knopfler music..


'It's time to get out of here'
Kathy and Jim Radke have a dairy farm next to the Scotford Upgrader north of Fort Saskatchewan, and they will soon by surrounded by more upgraders.

Dairy farmers Kathy and Jim Radke are bracing for the worst.

Their farm north of Fort Saskatchewan is just two kilometres east of the giant Scotford Upgrader, due to begin a $5-billion expansion in a few months. Directly north of them, the new Heartland Upgrader is under construction.

This area, dubbed Alberta's Industrial Heartland by the municipalities that govern it, is undergoing rapid change. As many as six bitumen upgraders could go up in the coming decade, bringing boom times to the Edmonton area but making life difficult for the Heartland's rural residents.

"We would like to get out," said Kathy in an interview in the family kitchen. "We just don't have the funds to do it."

For the Radkes and others, air pollution is a central cause of concern.

An emission from the Scotford Upgrader on Sept. 12 sent residents inside their houses for hours, after getting a call from Shell. The Radkes said their throats were burning so badly they left the farm. Bad air also drifts across the river over from a fertilizer plant, which could soon have three new upgraders as neighbours.

Kathy Radke said her daughter Shelley was able to throw her asthma inhaler away after she moved to southern Alberta.

"It's time to get out of here," echoed Maureen Chichak, who lives on an acreage in the area. "It's far too dangerous."

The Radkes said their cows have started sickening in the past year. They've lost about 35 cows since last fall and are down to a dairy herd of 100. The herd has been tested and cleared for mad cow disease. Jim Radke thinks a combination of environmental causes, including the air pollution, is killing his cows.

There is a whole section in today's Wall Street Journal on energy.  The lead story is Less Power to the People: Ten innovations that will reduce the amount of energy we consume.

It looks like many, but not all of the articles are free at the public area of the WSJ web site.  The main page for the section is here:

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/2_1252.html