Peak Oil Update - October 2006: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
Posted by Sam Foucher on October 16, 2006 - 11:36am
Tags: ali morteza samsam bakhtiari, bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, oil prices, peak oil, rembrandt koppelaar, stuart staniford, update [list all tags]
An update on the last production numbers from the EIA along with different oil production forecasts.
Fig 1.- World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2000-2020). Click to Enlarge.
- Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).
- EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to July 2006) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).
Most of the datasets above are compiled in an EditGrid spreadsheet.
Fig 2.- World oil production (Crude oil + NGL) and various forecasts (1940-2050). Click to Enlarge.
Business as Usual
- EIA's International Energy Outlook 2006, reference case (Table E4).
- IEA total liquid demand forecast for 2006 and 2007 (Table1.xls).
- A simple demographic model based on the observation that the oil produced per capita has been roughly constant for the last 26 years around 4.4496 barrels/capita/year (Crude Oil + NGL). The world population forecast employed is the UN 2004 Revision Population Database (medium variant).
Fig 3.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.
PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis
- Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects database (see discussion here).
- The ASPO forecast from the last newsletter (#70): I took the production numbers for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2050 and then interpolated the data (spline) for the missing years. I added the previous forecast issued one year and two years ago (newsletter #58 and #46 repectively). There was no revision since August 2006.
- Rembrandt H. E. M. Koppelaar (Oil Supply Analysis 2006 - 2007): "Between 2006 and 2010 nearly 25 mbpd of new production is expected to come on-stream leading to a production (all liquids) level of 93-94 mbpd (91 mbpd for CO+NGL) in 2010 with the incorporation of a decline rate of 4% over present day production".
- Koppelaar Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 - Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands (November 2005 Edition).
- The WOCAP model from Samsam Bakhtiari (2003). The forecast is for crude oil plus NGL.
Fig 4.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.
PeakOilers: Curve FittingThe two following results are for Crude Oil plus NGL (CO+NGL) production:
- Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes forecast (Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak): Logistic curve fit applied on crude oil only with URR= 2013 Gb and peak date around November 24th, 2005.
- Logistic curves derived from the application of Hubbert Linearization technique by Stuart Staniford (see this post).
- Results of the Loglet analysis.
Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.
Fig 6.- Year-on-Year production growth. Click to Enlarge.
|Forecast||2005||2006||2010||2015||Peak Date||Peak Value|
|Observed (All Liquids)||84.34||84.22||NA||NA||2006-07||85.03|
|EIA (IEO, 2006)||82.70||84.50||91.60||98.30||?||?|
|Crude oil + NGL|
|Crude oil + lease condensate|
Table I. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.
Next update in November.Previous Update: