Peak Update
Posted by Khebab on September 14, 2006 - 10:45am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, oil prices, peak oil [list all tags]
I'm proposing to track the last production numbers from the EIA and check how well the different oil production forecasts are performing.
[Update by Khebab, 02:00PM EDT] I've just added two forecasts: Bakhtiari and Koppelaar
[Update by Khebab, 02:00PM EDT] I've just added two forecasts: Bakhtiari and Koppelaar
I put together the following production numbers and forecasts:
Fig 1.- World oil production and various forecasts (1940-2050).
A closer look on the 2000-2015 period:
Fig 2.- World oil production and various forecasts (2000-2020).
The observed growth rates are low but have been lower before (around 2001):
Fig 3.- Year-on-Year production growth rates (or decline rates).
So far, the Loglet analysis, Skrebowski's megaprojects and the population based model are the most consistent with the last production numbers. The WOCAP model (Bakhtiari) is also surprinsigly good especially knowing that this forecast is from 2003. The ASPO and Koppelaar forecasts seem too optimistic and the logistic curve too pessimistic.
Next update in October.
- Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).
- EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to June 2006) for crude oil and lease condensate on which I added the NGPL production.
- A simple demographic model based on the observation that the oil produced per capita has been roughly constant for the last 26 years around 4.4496 barrels/capita/year. The world population forecast employed is the UN 2004 Revision Population Database (medium variant).
- Logistic curves derived from the application of Hubbert Linearization technique by Stuart Staniford (see this post).
- Results of the Loglet analysis.
- Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects database (see discussion here).
- The ASPO forecast from the last newsletter (#69): I took the production numbers for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2050 and then interpolated the data (spline) for the missing years.
- Rembrandt H. E. M. Koppelaar Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 -- Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands (2003).
- The WOCAP model from Samsam Bakhtiari (2003).
Fig 1.- World oil production and various forecasts (1940-2050).
A closer look on the 2000-2015 period:
Fig 2.- World oil production and various forecasts (2000-2020).
The observed growth rates are low but have been lower before (around 2001):
Fig 3.- Year-on-Year production growth rates (or decline rates).
So far, the Loglet analysis, Skrebowski's megaprojects and the population based model are the most consistent with the last production numbers. The WOCAP model (Bakhtiari) is also surprinsigly good especially knowing that this forecast is from 2003. The ASPO and Koppelaar forecasts seem too optimistic and the logistic curve too pessimistic.
Next update in October.
If the same happens with global production, we may well see a similar fall in production of 5% or whatever, before continuing with the predicted plateau and decline.
In the article, Hirsch looked for large oil regions that had definitely peaked and looked at the characteristics. He settled on
- Texas
- All of North America
- Britain
- Norway
And concluded:I note that a few posters here also use the same technique, to .. "enhance" the point they are trying to make.
Plus, I totally agree with your point, Khebab.
Does anybody know how to either post a single PDF page from a PDF file?
Or...even better... copy or cut a section of a PDF page ("crop") and turn cropped section into a JPEG, GIF, or something else "html" compatible as image?
Or...for the Grand-Prize...take data in a table which appears on a PDF page and export it into an excel spreadsheet?
Major points will be awarded.
Major points awarded.
Sometimes I want to save a chart in Excel as an image and have to paste them first into Word or Powerpoint, which gives the image options under "paste special", then back into Excel. Any better ways to do it?
With tables I use an option that ends up being PNG I think it is, it gives better large image quality than JPEG. Other times I use bitmap option. But mostly it is the Windows enhanced metafile, I think. I never use the paste as excel object option, it always screws things up. I always post into Word with images and then access image in separate folder like you laid out.
I have found another way in which PDF files can be made into other formats in the following sequence, and it allows latitude in editing pictures and text.
- Copy a PDF excerpt (or page) to a clipoard, thence paste onto Microsoft Power Point slide. With the resulting power point master adjust size, also add features text, etc as you may wish.
- Then save the power point in other available "save as" formats that include JPEG, TIFF, GIF, and other options, The power point slides and figures can easily be saved in all those formats, This is a really handy feature of power point
I have prepared several power point technical symposium presentatons then saved as JPEG to send the presentation around as a normal illustrated email. This approach using power points as an intermediate step also preserves fidelity reasonably for editing and anntating digital photos of all sorts for emailing.Major points also awarded.
Once loaded in Irfanview, you can crop any section of your screen shot and save it as a jpg or gif file. Irfanview also allows for easy resizing and basic color corrections.
I use this all the time at work for documentation purposes.
Sorry, non-oil issue. But totally and way cool nonetheless.
Ed
Can't check right now, because I don't have it installed on this computer.
Texas
North America
UK
Norway
Sorry, but cutting and pasting changed the backgrounds from beige to black for some reason. Copy and paste these side-by-side into your favorite image editor to verify for yourself that the percentage ticks on the right axis line up.
The point is the same. None of them have smooth logistic curve shapes. I suspect we know why: when production levels out, a producer increases the drilling rate to increase production. This attempt to increase production at peak succeeds temporarily, but at the cost of damaging the field and increasing the initial decline rate.
I respect Hirsch's work greatly, but I have read that particular report and found that sentence absolutely comical the first time I read it...
""The bell curve has a sharp crest, and you can't see it coming."
Would you define a "bell curve" with a "sharp crest" as being a bell curve? ( :-)
And if "you can't see it coming.", why waste time looking?
This stuff sounds like routine written by Stephen Wright! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
....I have a buddy who invented powdered water....now he don't know what to add to it...:-) Stephen Wright
ThatsItImout
http://gdl.msu.edu/~vanhoose/humor/0087.html
http://gdl.msu.edu/~vanhoose/humor/0049.html
Why am I not surprised to find Steven Wright fans here?
Take a look at Stuart's August 3 graph here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/3/31559/92662
The new 85.5 IEA number is literally off the top of the chart. The EIA however is still at 84.3, right about where it's been the past couple of months.
If you look at the highlights from the IEA September newsletter, it states that August production fell by 400,000 bpd to 85.8. Thus, their most current July number has been revised upward to 86.2.
See http://omrpublic.iea.org/
Can you elaborate on the demographic model? Is this something you have just come up with? I find this line quite compelling - the last 25 odd years has seen very constant growth in demand.
I wonder if the world population may peak in 2012 (your loglet peak) - the only data flaw being the UN's optimistic view of a forever rising population - the demographic line would then follow the loglet down (which is a great euphemism for for famine and war)?
One further question - can you say what the NGPL correction is to go from bp to EIA?
We are apparently not dependent upon air, water, food, oil, shelter, etc.
Anyone who models the population dynamics of any other species besides humans makes the population dependent upon environmental factors.