DrumBeat: September 15, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 15, 2006 - 9:13am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Suicide bombers try to hit oil refineriesSuicide bombers tried to strike two oil facilities in Yemen with explosives-packed cars, but authorities foiled the attacks and four bombers and a security guard were killed, the government said Friday.
The attempts came ahead of this week's presidential elections, in which President Ali Abdullah Saleh faces a serious challenge for the first time since he became head of state in 1978.
They also came days after al-Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri, issued a videotaped threat of attacks on the Persian Gulf and on facilities he blamed for stealing Muslim oil.
West beams security focus on Gulf of Guinea oil
Western experts worried about the security of oil supplies from Africa's Gulf of Guinea have considered several doomsday scenarios, including suicide attacks by determined Islamist militants on offshore oil platforms.But many analysts say domestic unrest is by far the bigger threat to a region whose oil is growing in strategic importance to the West because of increasing volatility in the Middle East.
A road map to a Britain without fossil fuels
The first comprehensive account of the measures needed to ensure Britain does its bit to avoid dangerous climate change is published today with a warning that failure to act now will only require more drastic action at a later date.
BP finds leak at Texas City refinery cracker tower
The refinery, where 15 people died in a blast last year, is in the process of restarting following shutdown ahead of Hurricane Rita last September.
EnCana eyes U.S. refinery for oil sands crude
Shell Canada shares fall close to 52-week low after refinery leak
Hydrogen sulphide, or sour gas, started leaking from a valve in a hydrogen cracking unit at the plant in mid morning Tuesday, forcing the evacuation of about 1,400 workers from the refinery and surrounding chemical plants. There were no injuries.
Ten oil companies may renegotiate drill leases: U.S.
The U.S. Interior Department told Congress on Thursday that about 10 oil companies have shown an interest in renegotiating drilling leases that at present would allow the companies to avoid paying billions of dollars in royalties normally owed on oil and natural gas found in the Gulf of Mexico.The department mistakenly left out language in drilling contracts signed with energy companies in 1998 and 1999 that would have ended a waiver of royalties when oil and natural gas prices were at certain high levels.
GM vice chairman wants mass produced hydrogen cars by 2011
Ford slashes 10,000 more jobs, 2 plants
"The simple fact is that the business model that served us in North America for decades no longer works," Mark Fields, Ford's president of the Americas, said during a morning teleconference.
Toyota shifts to small cars in U.S.
Honda achieves breakthrough in technology to produce ethanol from cellulosic biomass
China Aims to Triple Fuel Ethanol Output By 2010
Biodiesel to drive up the price of cooking oil
Excellent stuff updated every Monday and Thursday for all you number-heads.
http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.htm
Their homepage is http://www.brook.edu
That is where I got the following information on page 29. The whole thing is an excellent read. We will need to be up to speed when we start talking about exports and, in this case, Iraq.
I posted a chart earlier which I will be updating soon with additional information.
Here is the raw data. Many thanks to Jack for the technical support.
This second graph shows Iraqi Oil production separated into its Export and Domestic Consumption.
And the next one shows the same data as the previous one, but as millions of barrels per day. I have also reversed top/bottom order of components for easier reading. Colors stay the same.
Here's a link to first post on subject
I cannot verify this data. I am going to be comparing it to EIA's numbers shortly. What I can say is that it clearly shows Exports rising and domestic consumption falling.
And remember - this is the most screwed-up country in the world.
All we need to do is to stay the course, not cut and run, and things are bound to get even better. Right?
A President can't do diddly to make oil, but he or she can do a lot to curtail oil production, such as starting an unnecessary war just as peak oil is looming, to lock down a sizable reserve, raise prices, and spur conservation in the short term.
Purely hypothetical, of course.
Starting an unnecessary war just as peak is looming? Did I hear you right, Sir? Should I call in the Secret Service? You're not turning Doomer on us now, are you? We have a shot for that...why don't you just try to relax.
Sorry. I saw 'The Sentinel' last night. Not a bad flick. Eva Longoria, Michael Douglas, Kim Basinger, and, of course, everybody's favorite - Jack Bauer.
Not unlike '3 Days of the Condor.'
Purely hypothetical, of course.
Good to see you back, Lou. Give'm Hell.
There was an excellent article on this in the NYT months ago. If you read the Brookings report, they actually track average waiting times in line at petrol stations.
One possible explanation is that the real price of gasoline in country is tending more towards the black market price. Possibly cutting demand.
Something else I'd like to bring up is that I think pipeline attacks in Iraq may be overblown, no pun intended. There is a website that actually tracks these listed in endnotes of Brookings report. I haven't read through the whole list, but I get the sense(and this is pure speculation)that the "players" have more interest in making money from the trade in oil/gasoline than in disrupting its flow. We've seen this before. Most notably in Gaza.
Here's a Wa Post report on the Iraq gas price increase, from December of last year:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/27/AR2005122700929.html
Could it be a sign of increasing povertization - each month more people being priced out - and not necessarily an immediate "consumer" decision to not purchase?
Think about it. Let's say you could buy milk(or whatever you fancy) for 25 cents, but had to wait for between 1 and 4 hours in line to get a half gallon. Or you could buy the same half-gallon and as many as you wanted for $3 without any wait, on the black market(from Al-Sadr Brothers).
What would you do?
Then, let's say, one day, Maliki & Sistani Grocers raised the price of the official milk to $2. But you still had to wait the same four hours.
Now what would you do? Aaaah. Choices. Choices. Economics.
Of course, your wait in line would probably decrease for the $2 stuff, but the price of the $3 stuff might go up, and you may actually have to wait 15 minutes for it.
They have a term for this in the Middle-East. I forget the Arabic. But in English...it is "Market."
What would happen to American gas prices if all subsidies stopped overnight?
Fuel prices are heavily subsidized in many developing countries. In many cases, this is causing severe budget problems for the governments in question.
But from the Washington Post article and a few others I Googled through their news search, the Iraqi subsidy will take another bump if they are to meet the demands of the International Monetary Fund. Its probably going to see at least a doubling in coming months as they shift prices to ME norms.
Ah, but then you drop it to $20, and everybody thinks it's cheap, ans starts driving again ;-)
People killed by brutal uncontrolled sectarian violence don't buy gas?
Second point. Iraq looks real dangerous when viewed from the car-bombing, suicide-bombing, IED viewpoint. But I ask this. And I'm not kidding. And I'm not trying to be an ass. I'm serious. I don't know your answer. And I don't know the answer.
Do you think Iraq would be safer with no Americans, no Civil War, and no sectarian violence? What if it was at peace?
Do you think 20 million Iraqis driving around in "freedom" at 100mph in those lovely shitboxes they own would be safe? With no traffic lights. And no cops.
Where were those magic traffic lights going to come from?
I could go on. You want me to?
I think the word we all better get to love is 'Transition.'
Do you know anybody personally that has fought in a war, I mean someone close? If you do talk to them about it. It is not as funny as you think.
Sometimes you don't know which CEO you are talking to. I mean you always know the Dave you are talking to, but the CEO ... it's hard to tell. I will take it at face value and say we have found a point of agreement.
It takes guts to go over there.
In a word, yes.
Traffic in India is crazy, leading to a death rate of 221 per million people per year. (cite) It's a pretty high death rate in comparison to most places (about double the US's), so should make a good estimate of what Iraq's would be like.
Iraq has about 26M people (CIA World Factbook), suggesting they'd see an annual death toll of about 26*211 = 5500 on the roads. Right now, thay see that many dead every two months.
So, yes, it seems clear that Iraq would be much safer with no sectarian violence.
Also, why would you believe the numbers you get on Iraqi production o rconsumption? Deems like a "lips moving" situation to me.
People killed by brutal uncontrolled sectarian violence don't buy gas?
IMO it might be due to the owners of real estate that is flooding the market with no buyers and the ARM mortgages that bring bad news as well.
This makes for some folks who suddenly realize that they are in deep kaka and must make some lifestyle changes.
Of course it doesn't help much but this is their psychlogical ploy to convince themselves that they are really really doing something.
They are toast anyway but don't want to think about it.
So huge debts and no buyers...ergo less spending on stupid driving habits.
Check out this link from defensetech.
http://www.defensetech.org/archives/002756.html
If the military is importing fuel from turkey that would imply they are not using domestic sources.
At the same time if the power grid is so messed up how do you operate the Iraqi refineries? Are they self powered?
On-site generators, of course.
But this is an energy blog and in the energy industry 10% is well within any margin of era or maybe we can just blame our Iraq propaganda services.
If you want to see something really funky, check out the many different versions of Nigeria's numbers.