The Oil Drum

I think we are going to have to retreat from the coasts.  Something to keep in mind, before spending billions of dollars on new infrastructure (new transmission lines, banks of wind turbines, new rail lines, etc).  

While local protests can make a lot of noise, cause a lot of bad publicity, and delay things, in the long run the fundamental principle that 'money talks' usually wins out.

The promulgation and enforcement of environmental regulations on a national scale is a very complex, tedious, and highly political process.  The fact the much of the oil shale is on federal lands does not give the locals much clout.

Based on over 30 years in the environmental consulting field, I can say with great confidence that  if we start having serious trouble meeting US consumer's demand for fuel, those oil shale projects are going to be completed come hell or high water.

Wouldn't you think the protests might evaporate when it threatens to be permanently dark out, and people get cold and hungry and thirsty?

Protests may last only as long as at least some of the basic needs are still provided for. It's hard to imagine people waving banners on a freezing empty stomach. They'd be much more likely to go scrambling for food and water. And anything that burns to keep them lit and warm.

In that sense the protests can be regarded mainly as a luxury. In a well fed human, reason may be the driver, but in a hungry person, the reptilian prevails.

-Most people don't have fireplaces these days. Firewood doesn't do you any good if you don't have a place to burn it. Sure, you can always do so outside, but do you want to be the one huddling around a campfire in a New York winter?

-Cities don't have forests (save a few parks and random trees) and that is where most people live. The vast majority of our population is clustered in a few urban centers.

-To get firewood in the city you have to either have it brought to you, or go get it yourself. There might be a few people bringing firewood into sell, but by the time this becomes necessary I suspect that fuel will be lacking as well, so whoever the merchant was would have to find an alternative means (horse and buggy). Otherwise, the city folk would have to go get it themselves. Without gas, they'd have to walk. How far is it to the nearest forest from most of our cities? What are the odds a group of tired, hungry, and cold people could go back and forth enough to cause damage? Or even get there at all, if they were leaving from, say New York City.

Voter Malaise in Michigan

They are especially hard-hit because of the auto industry's troubles.

Fisherman have been out in droves, enjoying the tail end of a prolonged Indian summer. Then came last week's early snow. The sportsmen quickly packed up their Orvis rods and headed home, mostly downstate. But the locals? Most stayed on the water, however cold. For them it's less about fun than home economics. They have to stock their freezers for the winter.

Few Americans, especially those who live in cities, appreciate the degree to which we are still a society of hunter-gatherers. Visit Michigan's north woods after the leaves turn, and you see it. You also begin to understand the political change that's hit Michigan--and other bellwether states--and why polls are showing that the Republican Party is in trouble.

...It isn't merely a war gone wrong that makes people mad. Nor is it the latest sex and corruption scandals, or the widespread impression that Republican leaders are covering up. Michigan's sense of malaise goes deeper, even beyond worries about jobs and the local economy. No, the real sticking point is at once broader and more amorphous. Two of three voters think that Michigan and the country are on a wrong course. Increasingly, they feel the nation's leaders are out of touch with the problems and needs of ordinary people, especially those whose livelihoods depend on such things as the whimsy of the salmon run. As that fisherman in the swamp told it, "They just don't give a damn."

All this is a bit hard to judge from the polls, since incumbent Democrats look set to win in November. But it can be glimpsed, perhaps, in the way Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm has pulled away from her challenger, conservative Republican Dick DeVos, son of the billionaire founder of Amway. From a dead heat in August, the latest surveys show Granholm now up by 8 to 17 points. A Detroit woman, explaining her choice in the Free Press, described the GOP candidate as a "selfish millionaire" cut from the same cloth as George W. Bush. Much for the first time this year, I heard similar sentiments Up North.

Yes, there's been a weather change in northern Michigan. It's coming elsewhere in the country, too.