As some of the articles above note, futures prices continue to be weak (at least for near-term dated contracts).  What is the supply/demand situation in the physical market?  Is there a excess of supply?

Is it because Iraq is producing more than expected?  Other countries?  Or has there been a reduction in demand?

www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDO60102/IDO60102.2005_1.pdf

Odd that no-one seems to be talking about the concept of an "optimism discount" in oil prices. Optimism due to happy talk on the part of incumbents prior to an election.

The first half of the Tyson's Corner-Dulles expansion (Silver Line) has been delayed by at least one year due to delays in appropriating funds from the FTA.  Local funding is in place, property taxes have been increased and tolls raised on the Dulles Toll Road. All FTA paperwork is approved but the "check is NOT in the mail !"

Hard to have "Best Hopes"

Alan

Bob Rae calls Clean Air Act 'Orwellian"

• So far in the Liberal leadership race, little has been said about environmental politics. Too busy with personal attacks. Now Harper has finally come with what he tries to pass for a plan, the Libs of course tear into it. But their record is dismal; under their 'leadership', emissions rose 25% in 7-8 years. Are we ever going to see something real? Or will it be mere words down the stretch?

Carmakers applaud Clean Air Act

• Canada's auto industry knows how to reduce CO2 emissions: force people to buy new cars.

Inflation drops to 0.7%, but interest rates stay up

• Lower gas prices may lower inflation, but it's not that rosy at all. Canada's economy is out of whack. Inflation in Alberta is much higher than in other parts of the country -blame housing prices-, and the core inflation rate runs away from the grip of the Bank of Canada.
  In short: an economy based on commodities will swing as wildly as commodity prices do. Advice: buckle up.

Ozone layer hole 'bigger than North America'

• Throughout 2006, we've seen jubilant stories of how the Antarctic ozone hole was shrinking, slowly. Well, guess what, it's not. At all. As predicted, climate change leads to lower temperatures on the (lower) stratosphere.

Québeckers are busy not working

• Former separatist leader Lucienne Bouchard lashes out against the French Canadian lack of work ethic.
  It's the same old song from right field: hard work solves all problems. Still, the man was never known for such views. Another victim of Canada's right turn. The right wing press likes it.

Hollywood fights Big Oil over Proposition 87

• As Ottawa looks to EPA standards for Canada, and BC wants to emulate California, Proposition 87 is of interest here.

Too much oil, too much money, too fast: Alberta wants Norway model

• Norway's Petroleum Fund makes financial sense, sure. But Statoil is a state-owned company. Alberta doesn't have that. More importantly: Alberta has no pollution control to speak of. If they would look at Norway's environmental model as well, they might be on to something.

Change the tax laws !

Interest on any mortgage issued after 1/1/8 cannot be deducted from the taxpayer's federal income taxes.  Interest on existing mortgages in force as of 12/31/7 can still be deducted until paid off.  Any refinancing of a qualifying mortgage will remove the qualification unless the refinancing reduces the principal by at least 3% or shortens the term by at least 2 years.

i) Interest on mortgages issued on primary residences after 1/1/8 can still be deducted if the tax payer can show that the front door or 3/4 of the property mortgaged is within 1 mile of an electrified Urban Rail stop or station (measured from the closest loading platform along a walkable path).

Change the date to 1/1/10 or even 1/1/15.  The effect will be the same :-)

Alan

Now is the time for all the sane and rational people to PANIC. If the government is the enemy then we have to prepare for very hard times. The next 50 years could be hell on earth. The current price of oil tells us nothing about the future. I now have to retreat back into my shielded cubicle and continue my brainstorming.

US warns of potential threat to Saudi oil facilities

All I can say, I'm glad we have have the following 3 Strike Groups cruising the Persian Gulf simultaneously:

• the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group
  
• the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group
  
• the USS Enterprise Strike Group

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/10/20/separation_of_oil_and_state.php

As gas prices continue to decline, it's only natural to wonder about the apparent coincidence between this trend and Republican interests in the election. Indeed, a recent poll found that 42 percent of Americans believe that gas prices have been "deliberately manipulated" in advance of the election. Countless articles have been written on blogs and in the mainstream press speculating on the possibility of a gas price conspiracy, either supporting the supposition or shooting it down.

The trouble with conspiracies is that they're wickedly difficult to prove, particularly without a smoking gun. There may be a conspiracy, or there may not be. However, there doesn't have to be a specific conspiracy on gas prices in the run-up to the election--there just has to be a collective recognition of self-interest among the Bush administration, oil industry executives, investment fund managers and oil traders. (my emphasis in bold).

I'm not sure what the difference is between a "conspiracy" and a "collective recognition of self-interest".  Probably whether there were records of phone calls and/or meetings between the administration and others or not.  If there were such calls/meetings, what would be the chances of ever recovering something like that.  

Guess you'd have to be on one of Cheney's hunting trips to know for sure.

Phosphate

Potash

I haven't been able to find any other sources to study whether or not they are in terminal decline. The mining and fertilizer journals I have found are pay only. Haven't found any books on the topic either. Any ideas?

Geologist: Earth has lots and lots of oil

SPOKANE, Wash., Oct. 20 (UPI) -- A University of Washington economic geologist says there is lots of crude oil left for human use.

Eric Cheney said Friday in a news release that changing economics, technological advances and efforts such as recycling and substitution make the world's mineral resources virtually infinite.

For instance, oil deposits unreachable 40 years ago can be tapped using improved technology, and oil once too costly to extract from tar sands, organic matter or coal is now worth manufacturing. Though some resources might be costlier now, they still are needed.

"The most common question I get is, 'When are we going to run out of oil?' The correct response is, 'Never,'" said Cheney. "It might be a heck of a lot more expensive than it is now, but there will always be some oil available at a price, perhaps $10 to $100 a gallon."

Cheney also said that gasoline prices today, adjusted for inflation, are about what they were in the early part of the last century. Current prices seem inordinately high, he said, because crude oil was at an extremely low price, $10 a barrel, eight years ago and now fetches around $58 a barrel.

I wonder if he's related to Dick.

I can see two explanations. The first is the straightforward one, that the market thinks that oil will be $2.50 higher a month from now. It sees the current low price spike as a short term effect and expects oil to bounce back soon. However, this doesn't really make sense, a change of $2.50 in one month is a 50% per year increase. Anyone would prefer to hold off and sell their oil in December if they really expected this price difference.

The other explanation is that Friday's drop in the closing contract was an aberration, caused by a temporary market imbalance. At the end of the day, all unclosed contracts have to make or take delivery, and most people in the market are speculators who don't really want barrels of oil showing up at their front door, figuratively speaking. So there can be a scramble to close contracts, and in this case there was probably an imbalance of long over short speculation. This forced the longs to sell at a loss in order to get those contracts closed, and produced a short-term price drop.

The ultimate cause was probably a holdover from the early-year bull rush into commodities. We thought that got pretty well straightened out since August, but yesterday's trading suggests there is still an imbalance of longs over shorts from that summer frenzy. This may point to further price softness in the weeks ahead, as this imbalance is probably present in the December contracts as well.

As much as ranchers may hate them, the mesquite is a signature plant of this southwestern biome. It occupies approximately the same ecological spot as the African Acacia tree. It makes an interesting, very hard wood when it gets really big and old. It's a legume, which fixes nitrogen and holds back the desert.

It is truly sad to see it destroyed this way, but I suppose that's just another step in catabolic collapse. <sigh> There won't be so much as a blade of grass left alive...

NEW BRIGHTON, PA - Federal investigators arrived Saturday at the smoldering scene where two dozen ethanol tanker cars derailed and several exploded on a southwestern Pennsylvania bridge.

With tanker cars still burning, National Transportation Safety Board officials said they would gather maintenance records and interview witnesses, including crew members of the Norfolk Southern train.

...About 50 to 70 trains use the affected tracks daily. "We're working on a plan to detour as many of those trains as we can," Husband said.