DrumBeat: October 22, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 10/22/06 at 9:29 AM EDT]

Crude oil still racing towards $30 a barrel

Oil fundamentally is ready to go test the low twenties. However before that happens many people will buy the commodity and start false rallies. A quick correction through a sharp rally of 7 to 20% is possible anytime. But the oil market is in trouble.

Will the oil price go up before it goes down?

It was about four years ago that a respected local billionaire warned this correspondent that oil prices were about to turn down. Fortunately he is not in the oil business and has doubtless profited hugely from the boom of the past few years.

Yet how can you really be in business in the Middle East and not look at the oil price? And there is a new pattern emerging, which we can derive from analyzing two seemingly very different views.


Higher oil prices may be better


Uganda: Power crisis cuts Internet use

According to the survey, the majority of the households have no access to computers yet those with access have also abandoned ICT usage due to the perpetual power cuts.


Greens see red over Dublin’s energy efficiency ratings

A GOVERNMENT move to give Irish houses high marks for energy efficiency has caused a row with environmentalists, who say the properties merit only a pass grade and must do better.


Pluspetrol says losing $2.4 million/day in Peru protest

Argentine oil company Pluspetrol said on Saturday it was losing about $2.4 million a day in revenue after suspending operations this week because hundreds of indigenous protesters occupied its oil wells.


Iraq’s oil industry: Guarding a nation’s future Stars and Stripes goes to Basra.


U.K.: Energy subsidy plan for homes runs out of cash

The government's green credentials suffered an embarrassing blow yesterday after it emerged that a system of grants for renewable energy for householders has run out of money this year.


International Oil Companies Drawn to Untapped Oil Riches in Macedonia

Norwegian, Turkish and Kazakh oil and gas companies plan to come to Macedonia to see just how much oil is bubbling under the surface at the untapped Engilija field near Sveti Nikole in the east of the country.


Climate change forces farming innovation

DES MOINES, Iowa - Gary Larsen, a 63-year-old grandfather who raises corn and soybeans is among the growing number of farmers concerned with the potential effects of global warming. "We don't know how the world could actually turn out, but doing absolutely nothing and sticking your head in the sand is not an option," said Larsen, who lives near Elk Horn, Iowa.


Launch of Encyclopedia of Earth

A new electronic reference has launched that needs input from the energy community. With the recent public release of the Encyclopedia of Earth www.eoearth.org, scientists from around the world are joining to create a comprehensive, authoritative source of information about the environments of Earth and their interactions with society.


Big Oil's Big Problem

Despite record profits, the top multinational companies say they face a troubled future, and none more so than BP.


Business 'not adapting to climate'

British business is failing to adapt to climate change, according to a new report.

...while some sectors, such as insurance and some utilities, show an understanding of the likely impacts of climate change, and are taking some steps, most respondents provided little firm evidence that they are developing or considering "adaptation" strategies.


New hippies are fighting to replace oil

The generation of activists who fought for civil rights, against an unpopular war, and started the environmental movement is poised for one last hurrah, one more attempt to cure the ills of American society.

They're older now, and perhaps a little wiser. They're settled into their communities, some of them already retired. And they're scared as hell about the lives facing their children and grandchildren once the oil runs out.


Interview: Ciaran Hancock: Ballsbridge’s Big Oil ambassador

Chevron’s chairman and chief executive, Dave O’Reilly says there’s plenty of liquid gold to go round. It simply has to be found.


Sunny Side Up

...G.M. and a small but growing number of other companies and municipalities are getting solar energy from systems installed by others. Even though the installations are right on their own roofs, they buy the electricity much as they would from a utility’s grid. And because the companies that paid for the systems will get a steady income, they can provide power from the sun at competitive electricity rates.


Biofuels — the answer to the wrong question

Biofuels such as ethanol have been presented by alternative energy entrepreneurs and many environmentalists as a “clean, green” alternative to fossil fuels. But recently a growing chorus of scientists have warned of the dangers of biofuels.


Pump volatility sparks electric car charge

With volatile gas prices and the release of the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?," plug-in auto advocates hope more people will come to see the electric vehicle as something that fits into their everyday lives.
alrighty then   i am wondering about the coming winter demand for nat gas     noaa is predicting a warmer than normal winter  based i believe  mostly on the soi (el nino')      while the old farmer's almanac is forcasting a significantly colder winter    up to 5 degrees in december    while 5 degrees dont sound like much    it will translate into a lot of natural gas   the farmer's almanac  relies on cycles of sun spot activity ( chart reading for weather)     this may be an opportunity to make (or loose) a lot of $$$$$$ on gas futures
Nymex has the Dec '07 contract at $9.176 and the Dec '11 at $7.592!

What is the consensus about the tail of the strip for energy futures?

dont believe you will make a lot of money in any market based on consensus       just my opinion    i have a brother in law  who reads every newsletter he can get his hands on    and he is in a constant state of confusion
Nymex has the Dec '07 contract at $9.176 and the Dec '11 at $7.592!

What is the consensus about the tail of the strip for energy futures?

By definition, the consensus is exactly the prices you indicate - the market is a dollar weighted aggregate vote of consensus, and given the distribution of size and shape of players, probably a pretty good people vote as well as dollar vote

Bulls will point to NA supply cliff, written about here.  They will also point out that a price floor seems to have been reached, as producers will willingly leave gas in ground if they cant make money on it.

Bears will point to the price elasticity of demand for moving industry offshore if prices get high enough. They will also point to a large increase in expected LNG imports. The more esoteric among them will point to global warming trends reducing the amount of gas needed for heat in winter.

Myself, I see gradually higher highs and higher lows with increased volatility over next 5 years, including periodic outages, brownouts and blackouts. The risk reward long term favors buying these contracts insofar as you can make more than you can lose - but a warm winter 2006/7 and you will lose money near term almost for sure.  Better to buy natural gas stocks with long term quality reserves which might have less volatility than the futures. But as always, depends on your risk parameters and objectives.

bears might also point out that some industrial users, eg fertilizer and plastic precursors, are moving offshore... or, to put it differently, the onshore producers can't compete against those producing from cheaper supplies. Moving these uses offshore is both cheaper, less risk, and more energy efficient that importing lng to continue doing these things here.
mmm yes but beware of false outsourcing analogies.

Manufacturing labour may be outsourced to places where wages are always going to be significantly lower.

But where are these places that have long-term cheaper energy prices for manufacturing?

... the moons of Saturn?

Qatar
All of those places that are planning large lng projects, including qatar, as noted by alan below, plus australia, iran, even tobago.  The total cost of liquifying ng, transporting it in special ships, gasifying it, and finally selling it at current US prices of 7/mcf means the value in the exporting country is maybe half, say 3.50/mcf.  Naturally it would be cheaper to make fertilizer/plastic precursors with 3.50 input and then shipping the easily shippable products.
In relocalization news, the neighborhood next to mine has just dug up all their gas lamps. The builder had installed gas lights for street lighting in the development (about 6 or 8 'square blocks'? -- curvy suburban streets and cul-de-sacs aren't square) back in 1999 and they were so, so quaint. Every time a kid would hit one of the poles with a basketball, the mantles would break and when a car hit one, the whole thing would be smashed and leaking gas. That and the neighborhood association had to pay for the gas to be on 24/7/365, I presume.

They're probably going to install electric lights like we have. We got the faux-gas-lamp look in our electric street lights for a slight premium over the city standard, galvanized steel poles. And the city pays for the electricity; it doesn't go through our meters.

is that in San Diego or in the Phoenix area? I know a few areas have set up what they called "gas lamp" or "gas light" districts, walking-friendly and supposed to rejuvenate dead downtown areas, this was big in the late 90s.

Have they finally realized gaslight went out of style because better things came along?

I can just see the "LED light district" someday lol......

Yeah, or they could use those neon fake flame lights. You know, the bulb has a flame-shaped electrode and allows just barely enough current to light the neon with a flickering effect?

I hate those things...

is that in San Diego or in the Phoenix area?

And no, it's just a McBurb at the northwest corner of Austin. It was built in '98-'99.

Hello Everyone,

I would like you all to know that my favourite newspaper - the Financial Times - had a special, 12-page, report on energy on Friday 20th October. The report can be found here I suspect that it is behind a firewall but since I am a subscriber, I am not sure.

In any event, the important thing is that this report mentions "Peak Oil" paragraph

Troubled future: peak oil theorists are warning that the world's oilfields are on the decline and soon will be unable to match our insatiable appetite for energy
I need hardly point out that I cannot see the Wall Street Journal printing anything similar anytime soon.
I think you underestimate the WSJ. Their editorial page is full of wingnuts, but their news section is perhaps the best in the U.S.  They have covered the peak oil issue.

This story appeared on the front page of the WSJ two years ago.

This past week the WSJ had a great guest editorial by a Harvard professor presenting his case for a much higher gas tax.  I was sorry that I didn't have time to post it here.
I agree with Leanan about the WSJ. They are doing a good job covering peak oil on the reporting side. On the op-ed side, the official position of the editors is no peak oil anytime soon. However, that is the position of the unsigned editorialists, not necessarily the columnists and guest writers. I have been seeing occasional op-ed pieces acknowleging, or at least not dismissing, peak oil for at least the last two years. The recent op-ed piece you are referring to was by Greg Mankiw, Chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors from 2003 to 2005. It is on his blog here:

Raise the Gas Tax

One other comment about the WSJ. I am reasonably comfortable that their editorial views do not leak into their reporting. Although I am also a big fan of the New York Times, I can't say that I have the same level of comfort about the reporting vs. opinion separation there.

Many of us would like to see more PO stories in the MSM.  The problem is that the media are concerned with the here and now.  It's just the nature of the beast.  The media asks who, what, where, why, when and how.  They don't ask if, maybe or possibly.  Peak oil to the unknowing is a theory, unproven until it happens and it will remain that way.  Even once PO is five years into the rearview mirror there will still be pundits on CNBC saying we'll get back to where we were.  
I am impressed!
Thanks for the "Encyclopedia of Earth" link, looks like a great resource.  If I only had more time,  aarrrgh...
We tried out our new tankless electric water heater this morning. We were in some suspense but we had plenty of hot water for our morning shower.

Our previous water heater was the last natural gas appliance left, so we installed a PowerStar AE 115, made by Bosch. The AE 115 required two 240V/40A circuits. The AE 125 had a greater flow rate but would have required three circuits - too much for our panel. I mounted it on a basement post between the bathroom and kitchen, closer to the bathroom.

Now we can cancel gas service altogether. My ultimate plan is to bring in solar-warmed water from the porch roof and bring it to full heat with this unit.

wondering why you went with the electric when gas is available?
Me too. Even where I live, propane is much cheaper to operate than electricity. I've been glancing at this cheap Chinese tankless water heater. Off the grid folks I know also use propane refrigerators.
I have a bad feeling about NGas prices and want to get out now. Prices have come down a bit lately, but I think the long-term trend will be up. Also, the local company keeps billing us based on estimates, which are based on running the gas furnace, and run into hundreds of dollars. Since we refuse to pay that much, they now want a security deposit. I can live without them.

And as I wrote, I think tankless, which only runs when you need it, is a good match for solar-warmed water.

I'd sure like to hear how that works out for you...the plumbers in this area swear that these things are no good, for some unknown reason.  When I had my house built, the contractor's plumber absolutely refused to install one. I really wonder what the deal is...let us know, if you can.
Donal, Seadragon;
  When I was revamping our apts, I wanted to use instant electric heaters and was warned away by a local Plumber whose word I tend to trust.  He said he would never install another one (Sorry, Donal, hope this isn't your case..) since they would fail due to excessive thermal cycling.  Either the plumbing joints or the heating elements would be overstressed by the high heat flux that was asked of them, quickly and repeatedly bringing 45f up to 120f or so..

BUT,  and this is my theory only..  what Donal said about coupling with Solar Heat might be the system-saving workaround, since the degree/raise required when taking in Solar Preheated water would be considerably gentler on the tankless system, or so it seems.

Good luck!

I lived in Japan for about nine years. Tankless water heaters are all you see with most of them using gas. I suspect your plumber was using some cheap knock off.
No kidding.
I'm living in Japan right now.
I've never even seen a tank water heater here.

I've one of those gas tankless heaters for years. Works great. There's a little switch on the bathroom and kitchen wall. When I'm not using the hot water I can just turn the entire thing off.

That thing can get the water up to near boiling. Never once had a problem with enough hot water.

Bet that plumber just doesn't like newfangled thing.

No.  He's not a luddite.

His distrust was reserved for ELECTRIC instantaneous heaters, which he said he has seen fail far too often to be able to present to a client.  It would be his own rep on the line if the thing went south.  He never tells me to get the cheap stuff, either.. (boy, the assumptions you guys jump to!)

He was open to the idea that maybe the industry had worked through the bugs, but he was being cautious, after too many burns.

I know part of the reason plumbers are uncomfortable with tankless water heaters...

When preparing to put on a workshop about installing/using the Aquastar NG/Propane tankless heaters I contacted a number of local plumbers to get their comments.

They all discouraged me from using one. (I didn't tell them that I've been using the same unit for 7 years now after having self-installed it one home then removed and reinstalled in my next home when I moved - with no troubles at all) In chatting with them I found that few had ever been around a RESIDENTIAL unit and that they were remembering problems with COMMERCIAL units (like restaurants and such use). Most had only seen residential units in catalogs.

 The commercial units are practically flash boilers and heat the water very hot for use in commercial dishwashing equipment and such. When water is heated this hot the minerals in the water come out of solution and the tubing "limes up". Then they have to be cleaned out with acid. Also the high temperatures seem to be hard on the connections.

In talking to Bosch (manufacturers of the Aquastar) they knew of the bad opinion that plumbers had about tankless, and that it was based on the big comnmercial units. The residential Aquastar units CAN NOT get hot enough to cause liming problems because that would create a danger of scalding people in the shower.

I've installed three Aquastar 125 gas tankless heaters for myself and 2 other families. All are working fine. Unfortunately our American plumbers are behind the rest of the world in this area of knowledge.

Greg in MO

PS. with a 125 unit you can run a shower and sink at the same time - neither will be full heat, but they won't be even close to cold either. Probably no worse than running a sink after someone has taken a long shower with a standard tank heater and it is about tapped out. Do beware that once your teen figures out that a tankless heater NEVER runs out of hot water that you will have a hard time getting them to take a quick shower :o)

It depends on how hard you have the water on in any case.  If the water is running low, you can run hot water for hours without it running cold.  As long as the water heater can keep heating the water to keep up with the demand, or almost keep up, the tank can last a long time.  Of course, running the shower full blast will drain the tank in no time.  

In addition, it's obviously better just to have a tankless water heater if you want to take long showers, especially if you're going to run at low output.  A tankless heater will clearly be a lot better at keeping up than one with a tank.  

I actually think the whole concept of the tank waterheater is kind of idiotic.  

"I actually think the whole concept of the tank waterheater is kind of idiotic."

Kind of..
But don't forget that the tankless is fully dependent on having a ready supply of energy available to heat it fast, which gas and electric can do.  This technology (which I support, I have to add) still reminds me of the 'just-in-time' approach to inventory, which saves owners on valuable storage requirements and tax implications.. but its fully dependent on having an uninterrupted trucking infrastructure.

I don't think its foolish to have highly insulated storage areas for both hot and for cold in a home.  The hot water could largely be solar-heated, with Tankless to 'finish it off', and I would feel much more secure knowing I didn't have to have a meter spinning out front to have heat or hot water.  I know of a guy up in the White Mts who dug a trench off the north side of his house with a well-insulated lid, and he'd pack it full of snow/ice from the roof all winter and then shut it in..  it would stay frozen for months of summertime.  Thats a lot of refrigeration you could get for free.

Ultimately, I'm a horder.  I believe in Stockpiles..
coo coo katchoo!

I actually think the whole concept of the tank waterheater is kind of idiotic.
 

On the contrary, it's a crucial peak-load management tool. Prime candidate for load shedding during peak periods. Generally a household can get by with overnight water heating with an adequately dimensioned cylinder, and it makes sense for the consumer (differential pricing) and especially for the producer. A little bit of waste heat is no big deal compared with the huge demand surge when everyone takes a 3 KW shower at once.

In New Zealand, all water heating is (or was?) on a separate circuit, and routinely switched off through the network at demand peaks. During the energy crisis of the 70s, there was even a period of cool showers when the hydro lakes were down.

I have had a Bosch PowerStar for two years and have been very happy with it. I never run out of hot water and my electric bill has declined by about 25%. Since I live in the land of TVA I have an all-electric home.
but what is the source of your electricity     here in the midwest of a  much of the electricity is generated from nat gas    some coal and coal generated power imported from big wyoming    i am assuming that if gas goes up so will electric  i looked at a gas tankless water heater a year or so ago and decided that the extra cost would take a longer than the life of a tankful one to  pay  out    but cant you get off that budget billing thing ?  
Here in PA we're probably on coal, maybe nukes. I know electricity will go up too, but I'm guessing it will move up more slowly than NGas.

We've tried reasoning with Dominion Gas, but they're behind a wall of bureacracy.

Have you thought of generating your own power?  A PV system, or a windmill (depending on your location, not sure if you can have them in the city) could cover most, or all of your energy needs.  If you're really worried about the future of energy prices, don't go half way, go all out.  Granted the initial expense can be a bit high.  
PV is beyond my budget, but I have thought about a small windmill. The next house is only twenty feet away, so I wonder if people would complain about noise, etc. I could mount it on our backyard shed.
Here, in Thaland, tankless water heaters (on demand heating) hold about 80% of the market. I use a 220V/1400W unit in the shower and it is plenty enough power to heat the water to mid to high warm. I can not see any reason that this method of hot water heating is not advisable. We only heat the water we use and only when we use it.
Now we can cancel gas service altogether.

Congrats, that is on of my goals as well.

Cool! Switch to strip mined coal, why not?