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DrumBeat: October 24, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 24, 2006 - 9:18am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Greed will trigger 'ecosystem collapse'
A large-scale ecosystem collapse within 50 years is likely if current global consumption levels are not cut by half, an environmental group has warned...."We are in serious ecological overshoot, consuming resources faster than the earth can replace them. The consequences of this are predictable and dire."
Thousands without gas after Pakistan pipeline blast
QUETTA, Pakistan (AFP) - Suspected tribal rebels blew up a key pipeline in southwestern Pakistan's volatile Baluchistan province, leaving tens of thousands of people without gas, officials said.The pre-dawn blast suspended natural gas supplies to the provincial capital Quetta, as well as the Kalat, Mastung, Ziarat and Pishin districts, a gas company official said on condition of anonymity on Tuesday.
Philippine workers evacuated after riot in Kazakhstan
Hundreds of Filipino workers have been evacuated from an oil-drilling site in Kazakhstan after a riot that left dozens dead and injured, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said.
Nigeria: Enugu Residents Protest Power Outage
WILD protests, weekend greeted introduction of new pre-paid meter pilot project of the Enugu Distribution zone of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) as residents accused officials of disrupting power supplier.
Uganda: Power Cuts Aggravate City Water Shortage
Russian energy roulette spooks Japanese
The imbroglio over the huge Sakhalin-2 oil-and-gas project in Russia's Far East involving two Japanese firms has cast a cloud over resource-poor Japan's new national energy strategy. It has also served as a fresh reminder that Japan's economic power seems to have lost much of its luster, at least in the eyes of the Russians.
Far away from Darfur's agony, Khartoum is booming
Small islands suffered the most from high oil prices
The rising oil prices have become an urgent issue for the South Pacific small islands and territories with relatively weak economy, said their leaders Monday in Nadi, Fiji.
BP says Q3 profits jump 58% on asset sales
Oil producer BP Plc's (BP.L) third-quarter replacement cost net profit rose 58 percent to $6.975 billion thanks to asset sales but still undershot analysts' forecasts as production and refining margins fell....The world's second-largest fully-quoted oil company by market capitalization also ditched its 2006 oil and gas production target, saying it would produce only 3.95 million barrels of oil equivalent (boepd) per day this year compared to an original target of 4.1-4.2 million boepd.
Italy's Eni makes new gas discovery in U.S. waters in the Gulf of Mexico
Oil Search warns on production
OIL output from Oil Search fell in the third quarter and the company has warned it will not meet its 2006 production forecasts.
OPEC's Cuts Signal Pricing Worries
Saudis: All Customers to See Less November Oil
Bush to OPEC: high oil prices may "wreck economies"
Russian Expert Addresses Europe's Security Concerns
Russia is playing an ever-larger role in global energy politics -- from Europe to Central Asia to Iran. Yelena Telegina, a member of the board of the Association of Russian Crude Oil Exporters and former board chairwoman of Rosneft, spoke with RFE/RL correspondents Claire Bigg and Breffni O'Rourke about these issues and more.
Oil patch's profit party is slowing down
Gas prices fall to lowest level in 2006
It is time to make a serious effort to save the vanishing wetlands and barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana. The best chance is a bill passed by the Senate that would guarantee Louisiana and three other coastal states a share of oil and gas revenues from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The states would be expected to use the proceeds largely for coastal restoration and related projects.
In Deregulation, Power Plants Turn Into Blue Chips
U.S., EU hold climate talks despite Kyoto rift
HELSINKI - The United States and the European Union met on Tuesday in Helsinki to seek ways to curb greenhouse gases and promote clean energies, setting aside years of disputes over the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol which caps emissions.
Climate change could lead to more failed states
Global warming is exacerbating disputes over access to water and food resources, and could lead to more failed states, British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett warned in an interview published in the Financial Times.
Global forests disappearing for a pittance
Global warming caused by rapid deforestation could be curbed if developing countries were paid the proper rewards for maintaining their woodland, a World Bank study said.
U.K.: Biggest wind power project is blown off course as residents fight back
"I just happen to think wind is a bit of a white elephant because it's so inefficient and I cannot understand why anyone would choose one of the best bird sanctuaries in Europe as a site."
Ethanol: Blessing or Bane? Plants offer promise of prosperity, but some fear bubble may burst.
Nippon Oil, Toyota to develop biofuel
George Monbiot: Small is Useless: Micro generation can’t solve climate change.
Oil importers meet in Beijing demanding bigger say in price of oil
Top energy officials from major oil importers the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and India met in Beijing Monday with their Chinese counterparts to explore ideas about restraining and stabilizing crude oil prices."The five giant oil consumers are turning from competitors into cooperators," said Li Xiaogang with the Foreign Investment Research Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
"If they could team up to balance OPEC, the world's crude oil market would fluctuate less," Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Research Institute at Xiamen University, told China Business on Monday.
A new acceleration additive for making 'ice that burns'
Japanese scientists are reporting discovery of an additive that can speed up the formation of methane hydrates. Those strange substances have sparked excitement about their potential as a new energy resource and a deep freeze to store greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide.
US sends the wrong messages to Iran
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ25Ak01.html
I am not going to the conference, however if anyone would like to meet up for drinks/dinner one evening (Thursday or Friday night?) to talk shop (Peak Oil), I'd be interested.
I know a good Irish Pub close by with decent food.
My email is in my profile.
Garth
I was wondering if the people at OilDrum might want to start compiling a list of links to candidates in the upcoming elections who are peak oil "aware" or who appear to have sensible energy and/or environmental policies. For example, I just became aware of a green party candidate for senate in Maryland (I'm from Maryland) who refers to peak oil in some statements on his website. Here is the site:
http://www.kevinzeese.com/content/view/17/33/
-Larry
My buddy got a visit from the Sheriff one time b/c of the similar leaves to marijuana to the uninformed.
As far as the oil supply is concerned, the world bubbles over with optimism.
During the day I usually keep the TV on CNBC. Listening, day after day, to the analysts and commentators, optimism absolutely abounds where the oil supply is concerned. No one believes the OPEC cuts will make one whit of difference. As the talking heads come and go, they all have the very same message: "There is plenty of supply out there." Don't worry, be happy, all is well in the oil patch.
I have heard not a single comment about what effect high prices are having on world consumption. No one mentions the fact that average oil production in 2006 averages about 119 million barrels per day below 2005 production for both crude + condensate as well as all liquids.
All this wild optimism leaves me puzzled. It seems to be like a meme, a contagious idea that has infected the mind of almost everyone in the investment world. And I keep wondering; how long before this meme leads them to disaster.
Ron Patterson
It should have read 119 thousand barrels per day below 2005 production.
Sorry for the brain lapse.
Ron Patterson
Seriously, I don't think this is so much of a meme as a good example of groupthink. But the infinite growth idea, now that is definitely a meme.
You really hit the nail on the head there Ron. This is irrational exuberance at its most extreme and it certainly is contagious. The level of complacency out there now is absolutely staggering, as that level of manic optimism makes people fearless - it makes them discount, or ignore entirely, the obvious risks they are facing. However, a consensus that extreme is ususally indicative of a trend reaching exhaustion. If everyone is bullish and has acted (ie placed their bets) accordingly, who is there left to buy into the upward trend in order to sustain it?
When the greatest speculative fool has already committed himself, then the trend will reverse, and will probably do so sharply. As the reversal picks up speed (as it will because fear is a much sharper emotion than hope or greed and therefore spreads much more quickly), the downturn will begin to feed on itself just as the upswing has done. IMO we are very close to the point of reversal, although the prevailing optimism makes such a forecast seem incredible at this point.
Two months before result announcements the CFO left, everyone thought he was stupid. It looked like he was not because the global situation started to decline afterwards.
Then two days before, an optimist CEO told us that everything was fine and he was still expecting a soon and substantial increase of share value.
The people at the office all believed him, even ten days later when the stock felt 50%, most of them were still believing, only when it felt to less than 1% after a very short period of time, people started to understand...
Hopefully I was working out of the office and somehow protected from the illness, so I sold my stock options before they valued nothing.
Eventhough, I was still a bit confused because I bought some share at 50 cents (from 80$ high) hoping to make a good deal! I lost everything of course.
This is a good sample of mental blindness caused by your environment. This time, everything from family, work, hobbies to MSM is causing this blindness, it will be very difficult to escape the crash.
Many thanks to TOD and others to help us.
I dunno, maybe there's worse.....not by much.
This plateau continues to impact those at the very lowest economic levels in ways not apparent. Who can blame Darfur or Iraq on declining discoveries? Who can blame global warming on this same pre-peak irrational exhuberance?
As the old firesign Theater used to say,
Don't panic, Don't take off your shoes !
At the end of each of these feeds they have a little "lighter side" type story that's supposed to get you all feelin' good before you encounter the rush hour hell...
Well today's funny story was about (paraphrasing) - Motor Trend's SUV of the year goes to Mercedes Benz GL450 - it may be a gas guzzler V-8 but it'll get you around in style blah blah blah with 335 horsies etc etc...
All that got out of me was nervous laughter - not quite the gee whiz chuckle and Neanderthal drooling of their target audience I suppose...
Oh by the way - if you're looking for one they're only about $55k
Ron Patterson
My subtle reference was to the 3 Strike Groups currently cruising around (wasting our tax dollars) the Persian Gulf.
US naval war games off the Iranian coastline: A provocation which could lead to War?
by Michel Chossudovsky
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20061024&articleId=3593
There is a massive concentration of US naval power in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Three US naval strike groups off the Iranian coastline are deployed: USS Enterprise, USS Eisenhower and USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group.
The naval strike groups have been assigned to fighting the "global war on terrorism."
Tehran considers the US war games to be conducted in the Persian Gulf, off the Iranian coastline as a provocation, which is intended to trigger a potential crisis and a situation of direct confrontation between US and Iranian naval forces in the Persian Gulf:
"Reports say the US-led naval exercises based near Bahrain will practise intercepting and searching ships carrying weapons of mass destruction and missiles.
Iran's official news agency IRNA quoted an unnamed foreign ministry official as describing the military manoeuvres as dangerous and suspicious.
Reports say the US-led naval exercises based near Bahrain will practise intercepting and searching ships carrying weapons of mass destruction and missiles.
The Iranian foreign ministry official said the US-led exercises were not in line with the security and stability of the region. Instead, they are aimed at fomenting crises, he said." (quoted in BBC, 23 October 2006)
Also...this morning:
N. Korea threatens war if South joins sanctions
Pyongyang issued similar threat before this month's nuclear test
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15411541/
And now, the rest of the story. In 1984, I was finally able to vote, and was quite determined to vote for the Libertarian candidate, until I was informed that the Libertarian candidate was not on the ballot. I am not a Libertarian, but in the choice between Mr. Reagan or Mr. Mondale, anyone (which I still think) would be an improvement.
Further, I was informed at the polling place in Fairfax County that they would not accept any write-in vote on my part - which I found out later was actually not legal, as they were supposed to at least accept a write-in candidate, who then could be legally ignored by all parties concerned, except for counting it before throwing into the trash.
So I step into the voting booth, and there was actually a third candidate - Lyndon LaRouche, a true whackjob who I had watched around midnight weeks before, going from economics to nuclear war in something like 60 seconds - with another 29 minutes to go. I have a pretty high tolerance for lunacy, but LaRouche got the better of me, and after five minutes, I just turned the TV off.
So there I was, proud to be exercising my right to participate in a duty which is considered so important to citizenship in democracy (it was considered to be real important in places like the Soviet Union or the DDR, too). I voted for LaRouche, knowing full well at that point what a farce the entire thing was.
But like convicted felon Moon and his Moonie Times, LaRouche was part of the background weirdness of 1980s politics (I actually ended up years later living fairly near the Loudoun 'compound' which according to him was not his, though the Feds up with it after a pretty serious fraud case involving credit cards and political contributions, for which LaRouche spent time behind bars). Of course, Moon just kept increasing his weirdness over the years (a crowning ceremony in the Capitol - I think that was the end of the Republic, right?). Nice to see LaRouche still has a hallowed place in economics - he was always very proud of his academic credentials, I guess because Moon already claimed to be the son of god.
From your view over in the BundesRepublik, what do you think of the idea of 'Mandatory Voting' in the US? Even writing the words out, I hear the little cries of 'Dictator!' 'Noo!' 'You can't make me!' .. but what would we be 'making ourselves' do, but to participate in our own government?
Dunno, just thinking about the electoral system.. I like the intstant runoff idea.. makes a lot of sense, but doesn't probably match the 'WinnerTakeAll' King for 4yrs model that this horserace has been enthroned as in the US..
Bob
On every ballot, 'None of the above' is a valid choice, and if 'None of the above' wins the election, the office is left empty until the next election.
It has the charming virtue of forcing people to realize how much or how little elected officials matter, and it makes an end run around the whole third party issue, which is one thing both Democrats and Republicans feel they can trust each other to work together on to prevent.
And it adds real teeth to the idea of voting 'them' out of office.
In my fuzzy memory, 'None of the above' is a valid choice in Nevada.
Stay tuned for how this turns out on Nov. 7th.
Seriously, I am not sure that pushing people to vote is a good idea. If they don't care enough to get off their duffs and vote on their own, they probably don't care enough to learn about the candidates and the issues, either. As it is, the first person on the ballot has a big advantage, because a lot of voters just vote for the first name they see. Then there are the people who win because they have "famous" names, like John Adams.
Just because you can, doesn't mean you should...
Is he popular over there or something? Someone outside the train station in Koln stopped me and got me to donate for some of his literature.
He seems to write well, and seems to have his facts behind him and has been writing about the decline of the American 'empire' for much longer than I've known about it... but he seems to just be too much of a kook for anyone else, and I guess for me also.
I also am not aware of any of his history, besides his running for president at one time (I'm 28)
Wikipeida link
more than you ever wanted to know about LaRouche.
If they get any more annoying I might just do so.
Surrounded by people with expensive tracking transmitters on their hips... I feel so... help me find the right word...
http://www.webmd.com/content/article/128/117226
Who knew Gilligan's Island would be a preview of times to come. I have no cell phone, no iPod, and for many years I got by with WebTV instead of a real computer.
Gilligan's island, with six billion castaways. O:
Natural selection at work
I have a one hour a month contract, and rarely use it all.
Oh, I can see where this is going. A year from now, I'll be paging through the latest National Geo and I'll see an ad for Zygofil, accompanied by a picture of a handsome couple holding hands and walking along the beach: "Because he's a very important person, my stud-muffin is on his cell all day long. Since taking Zygofil, his payload-quality has increased by 30%...blah, blah, blah."
If you spend more than two hours a day on your cell-phone, see your doctor...
One little graph that grabbed me : in the lower left hand corner of page 6 of the PDF (Fig. 7: TEMPERATE AND TROPICAL TERRESTRIAL LIVING PLANET INDICES, 1970-2003)
The "living planet index" of temperate zones (i.e. the rich countries) has improved slightly since 1970 (now at about 1.05)
That of tropical zones has plunged disastrously, now at less than 0.5.
We have largely (in aggregate) stopped messing up our own back yard. Now we're mining the ecosystems of the third world to ensure our continued prosperity.
This is so simple of a concept I am having trouble believing ignorance of such scale issues is an simple oversight.
I have an absoutely beautiful and pristine view of the mountains from my house. No one has yet proposed putting wind towers on our ridges around here but if they did I could hardly oppose them when I consider the alternative of more coal fired plants.
And what's the view like of those destroyed mountains and valley and streams in West Virginia.
Marco.
Close...
Utility transmission and distribution lines, the backbone of our electrical power system, are responsible for 130 to 174 million bird deaths a year in the U.S.1
Collisions with automobiles and trucks result in the deaths of between 60 and 80 million birds annually in the U.S.3
While there are no required ongoing studies of bird mortality due to buildings or house windows, the best estimates put the toll due collisions with these structures at between 100 million and a staggering 1 billion deaths annually.4
Current mortality estimates due to telecommunication towers are 40 to 50 million birds per year.9
Agricultural pesticides are "conservatively estimated" to directly kill 67 million birds per year.10 These
rural free-ranging domestic cats in Wisconsin may be killing between 8 and 217 million birds each year. The most reasonable estimates indicate that 39 million birds are killed in the state each year."11
There are other studies on the impacts of jet engines, smoke stacks, bridges, and any number of other human structures and activities that threaten birds on a daily basis. Together, human infrastructure and industrial activities are responsible for one to four million bird deaths per day!
But what about wind turbines?
The NWCC reports that: "Based on current estimates, windplant related avian collision fatalities probably represent from 0.01% to 0.02% (i.e., 1 out of every 5,000 to 10,000) of the annual avian collision fatalities in the United States."15 That is, commercial wind turbines cause the direct deaths of only 0.01% to 0.02% of all of the birds killed by collisions with man-made structures and activities in the U.S.
http://www.awea.org/faq/sagrillo/swbirds.html
Looking at the broader context, if we enter PO and Jet travel, and car travel are reduced significantly, the increase in bird deaths from Wind Turbines would still leave us with a net reduction in bird deaths per year.
As for birds hitting windows on buildings, I do have to say while sad, it is somewhat amusing from a morbid point of view to watch this occur. One day at the office there was a hawk chasing a smaller bird of some type. The smaller bird dived to avoid the hawk, and the hawk followed. The small bird smacked right into the side of the window with a loud thud, and the hawk smacked right behind it. It was probably the closest realistic representation of a looney toons style chase I've ever seen.
Neither bird survived however. :-(
Again a year-to-year decrease for Vehicle Miles Travelled this month -- the fifth straight month there has been a decrease -- something that has not happened since 1979! Only Jan and March have been increases over the corresponding months in 2005.
From Jan 1981 through Dec 2004 there have been only 14 months of decreases in Vehicle Miles Travelled (and none from March 1982 through Dec 1990 -- I guess the "easy motoring 80s"). Now for 2005 there have been 7 negative months and 2006 (through Aug) 6 negative months.
I realize these are small decreases so far and probably represent "discretionary" driving. But I do want to look at these figures some more (as well as re-read the discussion here last fall on VMT) and try to see how much VMT is correlated to actual gas prices, GDP, etc.