DrumBeat: October 27, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 27, 2006 - 9:19am
Topic: Miscellaneous
How will the USA cope with unprecedented growth?
The USA added 100 million people in the past 39 years and last week topped 300 million. We'll add the next 100 million even faster. Sometime around 2040, according to government estimates, the population clock will tick past 400 million....Can the USA, which trails only China and India in population, absorb another 100 million people in such a short time? Where will everybody live? Space itself isn't the issue. More than half of Americans live within 50 miles of the Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf and Great Lakes coasts on just a fifth of the country's land area, according to the Center for Environment and Population, a non-profit research and policy group based in New Canaan, Conn.
But people can't live on land alone, especially if they want water in the desert, plentiful fuel to power long commutes, energy to cool and heat bigger houses and clean air and water. How and where they live could determine how well the nation — and the environment — will handle the added population.
Foreign oil drives Exxon Mobil's growth
Higher oil production was key to Exxon Mobil Corp.'s $10 billion profit announced Thursday, but to tap new reserves the world's largest publicly-traded company is taking on ever greater risks, tackling harsh operating conditions in often politically unstable corners of the world.
A first: Shell plans to produce at 8,000 feet in Gulf
Shell said today it will be the first oil company to begin producing oil and natural gas in water that's 8,000 feet deep, trumping competitors in the Gulf of Mexico who have made discoveries or announced intentions to drill in the region but not started to develop them.
Kuwait to cut oil output by 100,000 bpd
Argentina Virtually Stops Exporting Oil To Brazil
Argentina, once a major oil exporter to Brazil, has virtually stopped supplying its neighbor with crude as its oil production dwindles while domestic consumption is rising, Brazil's Valor newspaper said Thursday.
China lowers target for renewable energy
China's Policy in the Gulf Region: From Neglect to Necessity
Japan Seeks Oil Security in Iraq, Indonesia After Iran Setback
Japan, dependent on imports for 99 percent of its oil and gas, may turn to Iraq and Indonesia after it lost control of Iran's biggest untapped field.
Nigerian villagers extend protest at oil platforms
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - Villagers occupying four oil pumping stations in Nigeria extended their protest to a third day on Friday in the hope of extracting contracts from Western oil companies.The protesters had agreed on Wednesday to vacate the facilities on condition that they were given contracts to supply food and speed boats to the oil platforms located deep in the swamps of Rivers state in the eastern Niger Delta.
U.K.: Local councils are offered millions to bury nuclear waste
Poland looking to diversify its energy sources
WARSAW The conservative government in Poland plans to invest well over €1 billion in the energy sector in an attempt to modernize its infrastructure, and perhaps more crucially, reduce its dependence on Russia, its main supplier of oil and gas.The plans reflect growing fears in Poland that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will use his country's energy clout as a political hammer, something he was judged to have done in January when Gazprom, the giant state-owned energy monopoly, cut its gas deliveries to Ukraine in a dispute over gas prices. Ukraine agreed last week to a 36 percent increase in the cost of natural gas supplied by Russia next year.
Russian prosecutors say they are targeting oil firms
Global warming could cost 20 percent of GDP, British cabinet told
Lack of action by the world over climate change could cost countries up to a fifth of their gross domestic product, a former World Bank chief economist told the British cabinet, The Independent reported.
Ocean array acts as climate alert: a new project to keep tabs on the Atlantic "conveyor."
More Science Teachers Grasping Reality of Peak Oil
Just two or three years ago, if you had asked a science teacher about "peak oil," chances are he or she would have drawn a blank. But if the recent gathering of 3,000 science educators in San Francisco is any indication, a massive shift in awareness has taken place -- thanks in no small part to activists such as Richard Katz and Dennis Brumm.
Sustainability group prepares for action
About 30 people ventured out on a dreary, drizzly night last Tuesday for the first general meeting of Harvard Local, held at the Bromfield School library in Harvard. The group, which has been in existence since July 2005, has attracted interest from residents in Harvard, Bolton, Boxborough, Groton, Sterling and as far away as Vermont, for its focus on local sustainability issues.
John Michael Greer on Politics: imperial sunset
The coming of peak oil is driven by geological factors, not political ones, but the cascade of consequences that will follow the peaking and decline of world petroleum production can’t be understood outside the context of politics, on global, local, and personal scales.
George Monbiot: The great biodiesel con
OVER the past two years I have made an uncomfortable discovery. Like most environmentalists, I have been as blind to the constraints affecting our energy supply as my opponents have been to climate change. I now realise that I have entertained a belief in magic.
Palm oil prices likely to touch $565/tonne by next Apr-June
Rising demand in Europe for regular diesel blended with vegetable oil amid high crude oil prices may drive palm oil’s gains. Palm oil, traditionally used as cooking oil, can be added to diesel to stretch fossil fuel supplies.
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/10-2006.pdf
Among other goodies:
Another major risk in our opinion is the ever-burgeoning derivatives market, a theme that we frequently return to. According to the latest data from the Bank of International Settlement, the total notional amount of outstanding derivatives is approaching $300 trillion, and is being traded (notionally) to the tune of almost half a quadrillion dollars per quarter. These are mind boggling numbers. To put them in context, US GDP is a comparatively paltry $12 trillion. We continue to hold the view that the derivatives market, where everybody offloads risks to somebody else and nobody ever seems to lose money, is a time bomb waiting to explode.
I did post a couple of articles from the MSM. The Reuters article about Simmons, and the article from the BU paper about protesters disrupting the conference.
http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2006/10/26/autos-fuel-savings-cupholders-biz-cx_jf_1027fuel.html
Now this one irritated the hell out of me....
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15428994/
Where do I begin? So the economy is not that bad? It was a weak patch only huh? Does these people just buy this bullshit? Then to say that the Iraq war has not disturbed the markets is a plain lie. Why is government spending the highest proportion of current GDP output ever? So the quarter trillion or so a year doesn't affect the markets at all, Alan Pass that to me b/c I need some.
Can anyone tell me why social security isn't an issue? It would take 15 minutes huh? SO you would just dissolve it then because that's all that can be accomplished in the 5 minutes you've allowed. You realize why our manufacturing is no longer here when bankers are ever eager to export the heavy lifting to every other country.
Someone once stated when asked about politics and the prez.
"they don't run this country,Greenspan runs this country"
He needs to hie himself to a nursying home and spread his homilies elsewhere. Again the man is an utter fool. Why has anyone put up with the asshole for all this time?
Indeed, what is it that America does these days? New industries, such as Google, print ads to sell services and cheap goods. Are all these services just a sham economy? Not really producing each other, but feeling like we are because we are getting paid?
According to the Sprott article above: "US money supply, as measured by the most recent reading of the now defunct M3 (may it rest in peace), is up at least 50% so far this decade, and likely even more if it were still being reported."
Since the # of USD has increased 50% since 2000, should not the Dow be up 50% since 2000?
I wish there was a TOD for economics. It is quite difficult for the layman, such as myself, to figure out what is going on.
NO, there is no logical reason why this should be so. The stock market, (usually measured by the S&P 500, not the Dow), is not directly connected to the money supply. Though of course there is an indirect connection. An increasing money supply usually means an increasing economy, causing the market to rise. But one does not necessarily track the other and there is no logical reason why they should.
However if inflation went up by 50% in a given time, then in order for the average shareholder to stay even, the S&P 500 would have to have increased by 50% also. Still there is also no logical reason why this should actually be the case. The market usually outpaces the inflation rate, but often they go in the opposite direction.
Ron Patterson
None of this has anything to do with p/e ratioes.
Please pay closer attention to what the thread is actually talking about before commenting.
Ron Patterson
But if you have any question or comments about peak oil or related subjects, then let us hear them.
Ron Patterson
http://www.prudentbear.com/
http://www.safehaven.com/
http://www.financialsense.com/
http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_date.php
If you visit these and just reading articles, you WILL be filled in on the things mentioned above and more.
For some REAL stats on the economy:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?
For example;
Read the lastest one from Jim Willie.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2006/1025.html
One last one, Look at the charts at this link.
http://www.prudentbear.com/bc_chart_library.html
Follow those for a while, and you have your TOD for financials.
This is why you can not say that there is a one-to-one relationship between every dollar printed and an equal gain in the S&P 500.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/
That's his solution..everyone will get their $1,000 a month,,but the dollar will be so devalued a loaf of bread will cost $50.
My question is this. How did we know to have them there and waiting close by so early on? It takes time to get them over there.
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=26201
Simple. Surveillance. Electronic and otherwise plus likely a lot of humint via Israel.
Special ops, Seals, Delta, the list goes on and on and I thank God that they do exist.
I don't wish to see a loose nuke spoil the upcoming energy crisis. A controlled dieoff is much better than being nuked.
Yet they seem determined and listening to the rabid doves in the US they must think we will do nothing. Suddenly ALL those cheesy little flags would come out again and everyone would start tying those ridiculous ribbons on trees again.
How soon we forget. They brought the fight here.
I was all for taking it to them...if only Bush had a good plan and executed it wisely. Instead he wasted all his political capital and the support of the people. Pissed it all away. Then it got all mired down.
Now the outcome is very clouded. The insurgents and terrroists are emboldened. Now they have nukes,,,almost.
Surely Bush won't wait until its far too late. Surely a surgical strike ....well its said to be too late for that now.
So what comes next? Thermonuclear warfare? Or the Samson Option/Scenario?
airdale--"Do you want to play a game?"(War Games..1983)
I can say that the 67 years of my life have not been especially dull. WWII,Korea,Berlin Crisis,Cold War,Nam,Desert Storm/Shield,9/11,Afghanistan,Iraq and now...
Sorry I fail to the see the connection between overthrowing Saddam Hussein and the Saudi's flying into the WTC?
I was all for taking it to them...if only Bush had a good plan and executed it wisely. Instead he wasted all his political capital and the support of the people. Pissed it all away. Then it got all mired down.
Is there one example, in the history of the world, when one nation, uh I mean a coalition of countries, declared war on another nation, weak and stripped of its military, with the worlds most precious resource at stake, in order to install democracy, which in turn would end the terrorist threat.
Thats a plan?
We don't know for sure who, if any person, was controling their flight path; or what was loaded in the cargo bays of those planes.
Now there's a fellow named GWB who tells us it was Al Quaeda flying those planes. Of course, he's the same person who swore that Sadam had WMDs and that he was a uniter not a divider. So if you want to go by his say so, then please, by all means go ahead.
BTW. He never said "Stay the Course".
He said, "Stake the Horse".
You simply misunder-herd him. :-)
(P.S. Letterman & O'Riley were in agreement tonight on Iraq: It's the oil stupid --and it always was.)
It would seem to me a more probable explanation than the same middle class crowd changing their opinions so quickly (though that is definitely a factor as well).
These are the same middle class people that Alan "The Shark" Greenspan recruited for Financial Cannon Fodder to inflate the housing bubble after his stock market bubble collapsed. Long live Alan "the Shark" Greenspan... in shackles in some small town public square.
this doesn't mean that SS doesn't need fixing, too.
So what are you suggesting? We move to a system like Canada, where they diagnos you with Cancer, and then schedule you for treatments in 6 months when you'll be dead?
I see this a the first step towards Medicare becoming strictly needs based, and likely the same for SS.
When I took a public health course on the U.S. health care system 4 years ago, I recall that we were told that the law as written for Medicare was that beneficaries were responsible for 25% of the total cost and the remaining 75% percent came from general funding. I assume that when the Medicare prescription program was rammed through congress it was done with the understanding that Medicare was going to be completely restructured.
If your not familiar with Medicare, the premium I am referring to is part B which includes basic outpatient services. Part A is the hospitalization portion and there is no charge for beneficiaries, Part C is the supplemental insurance and the fees vary greatly depending on whether an HMO or PPO is selected, Part D is the new drug prescription program (a gift for Big Pharma and taxpayer fleecing operation).
Again, from a bird's-eye view, the Iraq war has resulted in additional government spending that other countries have financed without question. He isn't saying it won't have some effect in the future, but as long as China, etc. are willing to buy US government debt, there isn't likely to be much effect on the economy directly from the war. When they stop being willing to buy government debt, interest rates will rise and the dollar will fall, and this will have an effect on the economy, though economists will say it's the overall debt that's the problem more than any particular spending. It will take some economic historians to piece out the war and its contribution to the economic problems.
He didn't really say Social Security isn't an issue either. He said that if it weren't for politics, it would be easy to fix. You can read this two ways. If the assembled group were the usual elites, they would spend their 5 useful minutes cutting benefits. If the assembled group were representative of the population, they would spend their 5 useful minutes soaking the rich. The politicians try to represent both at once and reach a stalemate.
The manufacturing comment sounds like a BS rationalization to me, but if you believe that the world will eventually accept US services in exchange for foreign manufactured goods, this would make sense. I think of things like software and medicines as manufactured goods, but economists classify these new technology things as services, so in that context his comment would make sense if we didn't have a tremendous trade imbalance.
Raise the cap on wages subject to the SS tax so that 90% of total wages are subject to the tax, the same fraction that was covered in 1983 when the current cap system was put into place, and require that the cap rise or fall as needed to maintain that coverage. Add a modest means test that affects only those with more than $75K of income (in today's dollars) outside of SS. For forecasts -- since the "issue" is all about forecasts -- use values for the model parameters chosen for reasons of maximum liklihood, rather than the odd set of constraints that the SS administration is required to impose. The forecasts then show the trust fund stabilizing in positive territory. Problem fixed, 15 minutes.
OTOH, this shifts the "issue" to the federal general fund -- which will, first, have to learn to live without the SS surpluses, and second, pay back, with interest, at least a portion of the trillions of dollars of SS surpluses that it has borrowed and spent already.
And this is somehow not a worldwide issue?
But people can't live on land alone, especially if they want water in the desert, plentiful fuel to power long commutes, energy to cool and heat bigger houses and clean air and water. How and where they live could determine how well the nation -- and the environment -- will handle the added population.
Well, at least peak is being mentioned in the McPaper. Gues that is a positive. Oh wait. Bronfields, vertial stacking, rail. That doesn't come close to covering water and energy issues.
The Mongbo Guru is always happy-fun reading as to why he's afraid.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty102506.html
The fears this time:
So a lot of hubbub is obviously being caused by some approaching upheaval, perhaps reflected in something sent to me by good ol' Phil S., which is the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°8, which reminded us that last May they predicted that the economy would have a "phase of acceleration" that would begin in June, and it "would be spread out over a period of a maximum six months", which it subsequently did. They said then, and are saying again now, that a "phase of impact will begin in November 2006", and that this impact phase would be "the explosive phase of the crisis.".....
Or perhaps it was the article titled "Australian Treasurer Seeks Orderly Withdrawal From U.S. Dollar" by John Garnaut.....
notes that the Chinese are "now looking for alternative investments."