DrumBeat: October 31, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 31, 2006 - 9:19am
Global oil output ‘will start to decline by 2015’
Global oil liquids output will hit a plateau in the next five to 10 years and then permanently decline, whilst global gas production will keep on rising through to 2020 and beyond, an international oil expert says.Even with high oil prices, offshore exploratory drilling in South East Asia, where the majority of exploration expenditure is directed, is not increasing substantially, according Michael R Smith, head of the global oil and gas forecasting company Energyfiles.
China cut off exports of oil to North Korea
BEIJING - China cut off oil exports to North Korea in September, amid heightened tensions over that country's nuclear and missile programs, Chinese trade statistics show.
Energy companies are churning out big profits, but there are signs that firms are growing more cautious as costs rise and prices drop for oil and natural gas.
Grain Drain: Get Ready for Peak Grain
Unless this year’s harvest is unexpectedly different from six out of the last seven years, the world’s ever-decreasing number of farmers do not produce enough staple grains to feed the world’s ever-increasing number of people. That’s been a crisis of quiet desperation over the past decade for the 15,000 people who die each day from hunger-related causes. It’s about to cause a problem for people who assumed that the sheer unavailability of food basics, usually seen as a problem of dire poverty, would never cause a problem for them.
Warned of costs, world seeks way to fight warming
OSLO (Reuters) - U.N. climate talks in Kenya next week will hunt for new ways to fight global warming, stung by a warning that long-term inaction may trigger a cataclysmic economic downturn.But delegates say the 189-nation talks from November 6-17 look unlikely to make any big breakthroughs and may shy away from setting a firm timetable for working out a successor to the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, the U.N. plan for curbing global warming which runs out in 2012.
OPEC says British climate change report "unfounded"
A hard-hitting report on climate change published by the British government on Monday has no basis in science or economics, OPEC's Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said on Tuesday.
Oil firms drill for deepwater profits
With global demand for oil showing no sign of abating, the industry is going to ever greater lengths to secure supplies.
U.N. chief asks new uses for atom energy
UNITED NATIONS - U.N. nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei urged the world's nations Monday to adopt a broad new plan for the use of atomic energy to address mounting concerns about the further spread of sensitive technology.He said a new approach is essential because rising global demand for energy has made atomic power a more attractive option and proliferation threats remain a serious challenge, including North Korea's recent test, Iran's uranium enrichment program, and nuclear trafficking.
Kuwait: We want our piece of the oil pie
At yesterday's opening session of Kuwait's second legislative session of the eleventh Parliament, about 50 citizens rallied in silent protest in front of Parliament requesting a bailout of citizens' financial debts. The group calling itself, "Al Takafal Al Ishtemai" were draped in black scarves and adorned with black badges saying "Yes to the waiver of loans".
Researcher urges shift to solar power, carbon trading
India: Energy map reveals rising dependency on coking coal
A new National Energy Map for India, prepared by the Energy and Resources Institute, along with the office of the principal scientific advisor, has predicted that in a high growth scenario, import dependency for coking coal will increase to 85% in 2031. The figure amounts to 2,475 million tonnes of coal imports, creating the need for securing supplies. Import dependency, in fact, will be across all the energy sectors, be it crude oil, coal or even nuclear, but as R Chidambaram, principal scientific advisor to the Union government, puts it, “In the short term, we need the world, but in the long term, the world will need us (for nuclear technology).”
Uganda: Sorting Out the Power Problem
Loadshedding has become a way of life in Uganda. And even when the power is available, its cost is ever rising.Power cuts have become more frequent because of drastically rising demand. This demand is an indicator of growth, but also of poor planning.
Dire forecasts about the impact of climate change could trigger a new round of trade protectionism based on environmental barriers and tariffs – damaging this country's ability to sell goods to lucrative markets.A key risk was consumers opting to buy local products in an effort to cut carbon emissions from transporting goods, known as "food miles".
U.S. drops royalty claims against Chevron
The U.S. Interior Department has dropped claims that the Chevron Corp. underpaid the government for natural gas produced in the Gulf of Mexico, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.The decision could have far-reaching impacts, allowing energy companies to avoid paying hundreds of millions of dollars in royalties, the Times reported.
‘Switch to Renewable Power Before You’re Forced to’
The world is slowly but steadily shifting from fossil fuels toward renewable energies. It is unavoidable for related industries to fit themselves into the wind of change or otherwise fade away, said Lee Hyun-seung, chief of GE Energy Korea.
Investigators: BP ‘knew of safety problems’
HOUSTON - BP's global management was aware of "significant safety problems" at the Texas City refinery and 34 other locations around the world well before last year's deadly explosion at the U.S. plant, investigators said on Monday.
[Update by Leanan on 10/31/06 at 8:33 AM EDT]
BOSTON WORLD OIL CONFERENCE: ASPO-USA positions itself to be a big player● The Doomed “Plan B”
● Extensive Matt Simmons’ Transcripts
● Conference Highlights
● Protest – Energy Equity
● Challenging Renewable Dogma
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
Would biomass gassification of bovine manure potentially be more economically efficient and environmentally sustainable than anaerobic fermentation in those digesters?
RE: Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification
Posted by Robert Rapier on Thursday October 26, 2006 at 9:20 AM EST
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/22/211321/89
http://www.ashdenawards.org/media_summary06_india_arti
Its daily consumption is just 1kg of feedstock (such as waste flour, leftover food, spoilt grain, spoilt milk, over-ripe fruit, green leaves and oil cakes) as opposed to the 40kg of cow dung needed for the traditional plants. From this small amount of feedstock it produces 500 litres of gas.(now, have better web sluths than I come up with a 'how to make this' instructions?)
These people make a claim
http://www.yeomansplow.com.au/yeomans-keyline-system.htm
http://www.yeomansplow.com.au/priority-one.htm
This book describes how we can totally stop Global Warming with its resultant cancerous climate change and restore atmospheric greenhouse gas levels to near pre-industrial level. It shows how this can be done quickly and at negligible costs.A good way to get killed.
http://www.pterosail.com/
Finally, some battery news (hype?)
http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2006/10/altairnano_test.html
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/10/new_nanotechnol.php
Appropriate Rural Technology Institute (ARTI)
http://www.arti-india.org/
Commercialisation of Improved Biomass Fuels and Cooking Devices in India: Scale Up PROJECT
http://www.arti-india.org/content/view/44/42/
ARTI Biogas Plant: A compact digester for producing biogas from food waste
http://www.arti-india.org/content/view/45/40/
Compact Biogas Plant - details
http://www.arti-india.org/content/view/46/43/
Why is it that, decade after decade, we are constantly tantalized with wonderful new technologies that are never heard from again? (we have a built in conspiracy generator; TPTB are constantly buying these wonder patents up and destroying them!!!!! DEATH TO TPTB!!!!
:-)
There seems to be a lot of companies out there working on new battery tech. I'm sure someone's product will be more than snake oil and end up having a combination of good power density and life expectancy to really drive electric cars as an option.
(1) Only C & H (as CH4 or others) are burned and released to the atmosphere. I know that in tradional (cow-manure) biogas plants solid residue is returned to the fields as fertilizer. Looks like this is possible here also. This means that
(a) No atmospheric pollution
(b) minized depletion of soil nutrients
(2) non-grain waste from food crops for e.g. could be used as feed-stock. Right now if plant waste is returned directly to the soil the microbes that break it up release energy directly to the enviroment, without sending it through a cooking stove first :-)
(3)) Compress the bio-gas and use it in a vehicle. In India, many cars have been modified to run on LPG (cooking gas - the stuff used on gas grills in the States) because of a lower cost/Joule.
(4) Generate electricity in a thermal cycle or directly a Fuel Cell.
The options also appear sustainable.
May come to pass as fossil fuels are taxed or run out.
"Ethanol can replace petrol in motor vehicles
and that would end the production of greenhouse
gasses from all the cars in the world. We must
make it happen now. Ethanol is actually a cheaper
fuel when oil prices go over $45.00 a barrel.
Virtually all motor vehicles other than those
in Brazil, today run on either petrol, diesel or
LPG (liquefied petroleum gas). And they are all
fossil fuels. To stop Global Warming these fuels
have to be replaced. What is amazing is just how
incredible easy and practical it is to do so."
"Now in Brazil, and in any other efficient sugar
producing country, from a hectare of sugar cane
they can produce 5,500 litres of ethanol per year,
that's 35 barrels of motor fuel. On a per acre basis,
that's 14 barrels or 600 US gallons.
The total world's oil consumption is four billion
tons per year. That's two thirds of a ton of oil per
head of population. It is the equivalent of one car
for every four and a half people on the planet.
There is actually only about half that number of
transport vehicles in the world. The rest of the oil
is used for heating, petrochemical production etc.
What does this all mean? As an exercise, let's
say we drive 16,000 miles per year and get 20
miles to the US gallons, (26,000 kilometres at 12
litres per 100 k). That's about three tons of fuel
per year. Then to grow the ethanol or biodiesel
we would need to allocate two thirds of a hectare,
that's under one and a half acres per motor vehicle
That's 0.13 ha or 0.33 acres per person. That
would require an area of sugar cane farms 2,750
kilometres square or 1,700 miles square. That's
about the size of the Amazon basin and we will
have cancelled our need for petroleum derived
transport fuel."
Allan calculates that a 1.6% increase of organic matter levels on the world's arable lands (8.5% of the land area) would stabilise atmospheric carbon levels.http://www.ashdenawards.org/media_summary06_india_arti
And tell them they need to retract their researched award because you believe it is 'bullshit'.
So I restate my BS with the caveat of maybe they left out per month after 500 liters or something similar. I am interested to see the device though I would build one for 500 liters per KG just so I could break laws of physics and chemistry in my own home.
Unfortunately pretty much every press release turns useful information into gibberish, so I prefer to get the source.
"37. Digesters can be built in virtually any size, from a small family-sized digester (1-2 m3) producing just enough gas for cooking and lighting to a large community-sized of thousands of m3 producing sufficient gas to generate electricity.
The technical viability of biogas technology has been repeatedly proven in many field tests and demonstration projects, but numerous problems arose as soon as mass dissemination was attempted, particularly with regard to availability of digester feedstock (animal manure and water), as well as the high investment cost (US$300-500 for 1-2 m3) ".
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:wHweFyb2GKcJ:www.uneca.org/estnet/ECA_Meetings/CSD3/RETs_Paper.d oc+household+africa+size+fermenters+natural+gas+fertilizer&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=6
Well, look, I was a kid in the 1970s. I know how much waste food comes from a poor household, and the answer is: Damn near None. I mean, we threw Nothing away! Spoiled milk? It never got a chance to spoil! Same for all the other food goodies, you gotta be kidding me, we threw like NOTHING out, and we still weren't as poor as these Indians. The idea that Indians, or us in a few decades, are going to have enough to throw away as presetn-day middle-class Americans is just silly. Look up the occasional pieces written by people who've gone to live in India or come from India to here - nothing is wasted there and present-day Americans' waste is obscene.
That article sounds like a come-on for investment someone's set up, kinda like the "free energy for life" hoax that's gone around the US, you send 'em a buncha money and they sell you their free-energy device and the "rights" to install 'em around your 'hood....
If I went to their office for r 100 ruppies I could get a CD. For 200 ruppies, they'd mail me the CD.
Rather cheap...and if I can use the 800 lbs of organic waste stream (used brewing grain) I already have.....
I have some familiarity with the environmental problems created by the concentration of poultry and hog operations in North Carolina and elsewhere (such as Delaware, where there is a huge concentration of poultry farms downstate).
It is a perfect example of some of the harmful displacements caused by large-scale factory farming. Massive amounts of grains are imported from other regions to feed the animals, but the waste from those animals remains within the region. While this waste is rich in nitrogen and phosphorus, its quantity is so large that it is often more than the local farmers can comfortably handle. Hence, it is often applied to the land in excess amounts and results in groundwater and surface water contamination. (I understand that eastern North Carolina is particularly vulnerable in this regard as it has very sandy, highly permeable soil.)
And it has been generally uneconomical to transport feedlot wastes long distances to the point of origin where the grains were originally grown. However, there has been some success in drying and pelletizing poultry wastes and thereby extending the economical distribution radius.
I really see no way out of this problem other than to go back to a more diversified, more balanced, and less concentrated form or agriculture.
The Neuse river was devastated. I lived there for some years and it was downright dreadful and ignorant what they did to that area. It didn't get near Wake County, the richest in NC and where I lived because no one would have stood for it.
Right now they are searching for more land to spoil. They are unrelenting. All this so one man raising 50,000 pigs can get rich while 50,000 people have to live in the stench.
Finally as I heard later the outcry became too much and laws were passed. Thats why they are looking for new areas to infect. Scumbag cheesedicks they are , one and all.
Just read your ARTI site above--very interesting. A quote:
If the manure is already dried (sun-dried, preferably) then it may be better to gasify it. The conversion would certainly be higher than in a fermentation.
I'm not sure I could give you a definite YES-or-NO answer, but here are some considerations that I think are important.
First off, cattle feedlot waste is wet, quite a bit wetter than the fresh-from-the-cow manure. The main reason is that water is used as a transport medium to move the manure from the stalls to a collection basin. The waste also contains large amounts of urine. While feedlot waste is far more concentrated than domestic sewage, it is still wet.
To gasify organic matter you have to heat it up to the point where pyrolysis reactions take place. If a lot of water is present, you are going to expend a great deal of energy in boiling off the water. If a feedlot were to set up a more dry system of waste collection, then that would lessen this problem.
Second, one must keep in mind that the orginal primary purpose of the anaerobic digestion of feedlot waste was not to produce gas but rather to render a highly noxious and odoriferous material less so and thereby make it more suitable for land disposal. The production of digester gas has generally been a secondary benefit.
Also, in the anaerobic digestion process, not all of the biodegrable organic matter is converted into methane. Some of it (typically 1/3) is oxidized into CO2. So, a portion of the potential energy content of the waste is lost to CO2.
Another consideration is that for an anaerobic digester to function at a sufficiently high rate it needs to be maintained at a certain temperature (85 to 105 degrees F if operating in the 'mesophilic' range, or 120 to 140 degrees F if operating in the 'thermophilic' range.) As such, in many applications some of the digester gas is used for heating the digester itself and is therefore unavailable for other uses.
So, it would appear to me that if (and it's a big IF) you could get the bovine manure to the gasifier in a fairly dry (or at least not too wet, state), then the gasifier might be more efficient in producing combustible gas. If not, then the digester would probably win out. Where that moisture content breakpoint is, I haven't a clue.
I suppose you could insert a drying step ahead of the gasifier, but that itself would consume energy, in addition to being a tremendous potential odor problem.
While I haven't really answered your question, I hope this at least adds some perspective to the question.
Smithfield Foods in the US has set up a bio-energy subsidiary that is capturing methane gas from hog manure and producing methanol down in Utah.
Probably the largest operation of its kind, they're now looking to expand the facility however one of the key issues is getting consistancy.
Smaller units are found in Microgy's biz model here: http://www.environmentalpower.com/companies/microgy/ which may have been posted already.
Both entities are looking at converting their respective processes into EtOH paths.
Drastic action on climate change is needed now - and here's the plan
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1935441,00.html
The principal costs of climate change will be measured in lives, not pounds. As Stern reminded us yesterday, there would be a moral imperative to seek to prevent mass death even if the economic case did not stack up.
Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
Final Report -
TOC
Bill Moore of EVWorld writes:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102
He proceeds to lay out a large number of sub-theories, with no data.
This is an excellent speech. I will be parsing it and rewatching it multiple times. But where's the data?
The data's bad? So why do you use it to make your points, Mr. Simmons?
Don't get me wrong, your speech and your work raises excellent points. I just have no opinion yet. I'll be spending 50-70 hours this week, as I do every week, looking at the data. Like CERA, like Rembrandt.
(Westtexas often pointed to 12/05 as the peak, but I pointed out to him that no month will ever be looked at as a peak even in hindsight, and nor will it be a 13-month avg; it will be a peak year. So, whether 7/05 stands or is revised, the interesting comparison at this point in time is 06 vs. 05.)
- The first 7 months of 06, compared with the first 7 months of 05; 06 down 180k/d world, down 300k/d opec, (therefore up 120k/d non-opec). (BTW, US down 400k/d, or 5%, and before alaska began leaking.)
- Speculation: opec will keep to its promises and cut 1.2mmb/d starting tomorrow, or an avg of 200k/d for the year, or 480k/d avg over the last 5 months.
2a. If opec does not cut, for 06 to exceed 05 the last 5 months will have to avg over 84.5mmb/d; over the last 12 months of available date, only 2 months managed such a high output.2b. If opec does cut, production will have to avg 85mmb/d over the last 5 months to exceed 05, and only 1 month, the 'subject to revision' 7/06, has ever managed this.
We are all aware, as Freddy is wont to point out, that many diligent workers have concluded that a peak in 2010 looks likely, and some of these think 2012 or later. It is worth pointing out that none of these pundits have predicted less output in 06 than 05, which I think is likely even if opec does not cut and nearly certain if it does.
Many countries, not least sa/mexico, are showing lower output this year in the face of record prices - with the former clearly trying hard based on the 2.5x increased rig count -, so it is possible that even as substantial fields are placed into service we are seeing accelerating declines from the far larger number of mature fields. imo, mature regions are declining at a rate of at least 5%, the US rate, and as time goes on we will see this rate go ever higher as a higher proportion of the world's production is off shore and/or has been produced with horizontal wells, the latter a newer, 'high tech' practice as the oil approaches the gas cap, a la ghawar/cantarell.
The best point westtexas ever made was that professional oil men were universally surprised, even shocked, when texas was unable to increase production when all restrictions were lifted. Many will be surprised, even shocked, when peak becomes accepted, regardless of when it happens.
The early names are deffeyes, simmons and bakhtiari. We'll see just have to wait and see who gets the gold ring.
Ron Patterson
My question is where is all this data that he alludes to being in possession of that the rest of us don't have.
There is no evidence that Saudi Arabia's production at 9.3 million barrels a day is that way because of geological/peak-oil reasons. But there is substantial evidence that it is voluntary or geo-politically driven.
Now, I'm not saying this is the case, or that we will look back and it will be the case - but the best data we have currently suggests it is.
But, again, you only see what you want to. Go on pretending that you know more about everything than everybody else here and that you study the numbers more than anybody else and blah, blah, blah.
December 2005. (With caveat, since it is obviously wrong).
Also check this link for hundreds of points of data.
Ron Patterson
I don't think that's accurate. Part of my job involves gasoline blending and scheduling. Gasoline doesn't sit around for long. There was ample warning of the MTBE transition. The conversion to ethanol did lead to a gas shortage in the Spring, which was part of what drove prices higher then. But I am personally unaware of any MTBE-blended gasoline setting around anywhere, unless it is in people's personal gasoline stocks.
I'm still confused by EIA's statistics. The finished gasoline stock figures are quite low and would indicate an imminent shortage if imports of finished gasoline aren't going higher. The other component of the total gasoline stock are termed "blending components" and seem to be only that since we can't use ethanol now directly but only very diluted with conventional gasoline. So how do you interpret this discrepancy between finished gasoline decreasing and blending components increasing ?
Which stocks are you looking at? When I looked at the inventories, it looked like gasoline had been pulled down, but was still well above the average level for this time of year. It looked like blend stocks have remained in a fairly narrow range.
Here is what I told Nate Hagens, who asked me about this a few days ago. I don't really discern in my mind between blend stocks and finished gasoline. If the demand is there, I can turn blend stocks into finished gasoline very quickly. The reason that blend stocks start to build, is that demand has slowed and the pipelines and terminals start to back up. If the trend continues, and the inventory pull on gasoline continues to be large, you will see blend stocks get pulled down pretty quickly.
You will also see blend stocks get pulled down during fall and spring turnarounds. Most refineries will try to build stocks going into a turnaround, and draw them down while the refinery is down.
There is also some end of the year inventory management that may effect blend stocks. Year end inventories are taxed based on certain criteria, and most refineries try to end the year with low inventories of various components.
I look at EIA's data on gasoline stocks in their weekly summary tables or in the specific stock files in weekly or monthly data. Total gasoline stock is broken down into finished gasoline and blending components. Finished gasoline is well below the average and indeed blending components are well above average. Most of the increase in these blending components comes from ethanol. I will try to show this with a graph Friday if I have the time, otherwise in two weeks. But I didn't know that one can easily convert ethanol or other blending components into gasoline and of course this makes the stock situation much better.
I would like to see your graph. I was looking today, and nothing seemed out of the ordinary to me. Maybe I was looking at a 4 week running average, which would explain why things weren't changing all that much.
- What in the supply chain does the finished products (gasoline, diesel, etc.) storage inventory include? Tanks at the refinery? Pipeline terminals? Tankers & barges? Petroleum jobbers? Local gas stations? All of the above?
- Did the shift from MTBE to ethanol affect the way gasoline inventories are calculated, since ethanol is typically not blended in before the pipeline terminal? If yes, are the inventory numbers now comparable to those previous to the switch?
Thanks!A vaguely similar situation happened with CFCs in the mid-80s - legally banned, but still worth a fair amount when sold. And there was more hanging around than people had at first assumed. (But I am assuming that a recycling market, as occurred with CFCs, is not in the offing.)
Just pure speculation, but I am not sure that anyone has a complete overview of what fuel is sitting in what storage facilities (for example, how much gasoline does the Navy store for Marine units?). And to a certain extent, if you did know and tell, you (or the person who told you) would be likely breaking laws which are now being more actively enforced than in the past.
And this may very well be true. But the gasoline business is pretty open (trades go on constantly) and I would stunned if there is any commercial gasoline setting around in a tank with MTBE in it. That would have been a monumentally bad decision.
I transcribed this bit as best I could.
Prices rose between 1990 and 2005. And demand rose as well.
Seems pretty solid to me.
But again it seems to me he covered it pretty well at about the 15:00 point.
Prices rose between 1990 and 2005. And demand rose as well.
Someone at the ASPO conference claimed (in private conversation) that 90% of US rail ton-miles were coal and that the rails were saturated (true for Wyoming but not the US).
I found this statistic.
www.fra.dot.gov/downloads/policy/freight2004.pdf
http://www.agweb.com/topproducer.asp
Rush Hour on the Rails
Top Producer, September 2006, By Marcia Zarley Taylor
http://www.agweb.com/get_article.asp?src=&pageid=130672
Let's Fix Rail Gridlock
Top Producer, October 2006, By Kendell W. Keith, president of the National Grain and Feed Association
http://www.agweb.com/get_article.asp?sigcat=topproducer&pageid=131358
:>)
Transcript of Q&A, Matt Simmons in Crystal City, June 20, 2006
When asked what actions should be taken immediately to mitigate Peak, Simmons had three of the most valid suggestions I have ever heard that can be implemented over the next five years:
"My three favorites are easy to do, and we don't need any new technology. I'm sure there are some better suggestions but they are not easy. The first thing I would do is go on a program over a 5-year period of time for zero tolerance of using large trucks to ship goods over roads long distances. Just stop. To the extent that you need to ship goods long distances, put them on rails-to-water. Use the water system to take goods coming from China that come to San Diego, all the way through the Panama Canal, up the water system to Portland, Maine. You can basically move that transport in a shorter period of time - ironically - than using trucks and with 1/35 the amount of oil. So anytime you get a 35 times improvement, that's a big deal."
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/members/103006_boston_oil.shtml
Imagine the enormity of the investment and economic upheaval it would take to convert 100% of "long distance" truck freight to rail or barge. Yikes! I have a great deal of respect for Simmons, but there are times when I wonder what the heck he's smoking.
I think Simmons is smart enough to see that realistic pricing would need to be applied before realistic comparisons can be made.
Lucky for all of us, that will be soon.
I'm talking about the rails to water mostly. Now think this all the way through. I won't disagree with you're assesment that oil is subsidized yada yada yada. However think all the way through on this junk from China staying on the water through to Maine. The ENTIRE, ok main, reason containerized shipping has worked so well is that you've got mutual needs. What in the hell leaves Maine and goes to China? Now what leaves the port of San Diego to China?
Now I don't know the numbers, but it FAR more wasteful to have a ship stopping at ports all over the country, rather than a centralized port of entry where rails can distribute the goods. Also Simmons is quoted as saying trucks vs water is a 35X improvement. My point about all this not working wasn't even talking about the trucks, but rather this idea to send ships all over the country to makes tops that are unnecessary.
I'm sure we could take this all over the place, but I'm just not sure even if diesel was $8/gal, we are going to be sending stuff from China to MA or anywhere else besides the ports of LA.
Decent MSM piece on what the projections for global warming can be. It's got an interactive timeline going back to the year 200 projected through 2100 and interestingly they provide sources and methods.
The Stern Report says our economy could suffer a 5% hit due to global climate change, but let's consider how much of a hit our economy will take when London, New York, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Dubai, and dozens of other financial centers are either underwater or terminally damaged by storms. Add to that a starving population. Looks to me like the economy could be the least of our worries.
Tom A-B
As Monbiot says: the costs will be measured in lives, not pounds. The value of lives can't be caught in economic terms, other than grossly distorted ones (when you die, lost economic productivity is measured, but that means nothing to those who mourn). A very limited language that should not be used beyond its limited scope, but thinks it can capture all.
It's the same as Al Gore, who blabs about the money that can be made in green products. A very basic failure to understand issues, but inevitable if you only speak that one language. It makes him useless as a voice.
If Stern would have found that it's cheaper to let it go than to act, what would have been his conclusion?
Our entire economic system, like the money that propels it, is a fictional tale. And when New York and London are underwater, and hundreds of millions of people are on the move, that system will not exist anymore.
The reality that it fails to describe will.
Mon Oct 30, 10:44 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061031/sc_nm/environment_china_water_dc_1
< A short article with an interesting note about where the energy will come from to desalinate. Pasted in below... >
BEIJING (Reuters) - Drought-stricken China, where hundreds of millions of people are without regular access to drinking water, is turning to desalinated sea water to help end the crisis, the government said on Tuesday.
Apart from widespread drought, factories have ignored pollution hazards and dumped toxic industrial waste into rivers and lakes in China, home to one-fifth of the world's population but only 7 percent of its water resources.
"China is expected to desalinate 800,000 to 1 million cubic meters of sea water per day and use 55 billion cubic meters annually by 2010," the State Development and Reform Commission said, detailing China's ninth five-year plan.
China desalinated 120,000 cubic meters of sea water per day last year.
It was not immediately clear how China, which is also desperately short of fuel, would power the energy-hungry desalination plants.
More than 600 medium- and large-sized cities in China were now suffering "serious water shortages," Water Resources Minister Wang Shucheng said this month.
China is investing billions in a project to transfer water from its lush south to the arid north.
The so-called western route of the project could involve harnessing rivers cascading from the Tibetan highlands in the Himalayas to quench the thirst of Qinghai province and other poor western areas.
But Wang said the proposed system of tunnels stretching 300 km (190 miles), and costing more than the $25 billion Three Gorges Dam hydroelectric mega-project, was unnecessary, unscientific and not feasible.
In their paper Solar Thermal Energy: The Forgotten Energy Source, Reuel Shinnar and Francesco Citro report that solar thermal desalination is not only feasible, it is the cheapest method available. They write that "A 1 GW solar-based power plant (6500 hours/year) would produce about 150 million m3 water/year, or 45000 acre-feet of water." By my calculation, using the SEGS system in the Mohave desert as a reference, a 3300-acre solar thermal installation will generate 1 GW.
Solar is great and has a future. Nuclear is necissary today. The only present alternative to nuclear is coal.
The cost estimates for nuclear are also overstated from current nuclear power costs today by over 30%.
I'm sure concentrating thermal has a place, but they vastly overstate its capacity and competiveness in the short run.
When your model is some large government protected monopoly will deliver the power and you send them a check...then yes.
Its too bad that people still see themselves shackeled by the government protected monopoly model.
And afterwards, it'll feel like all that cash never really existed. That's because it never did. But you and I will still be stuck with the bills. They do exist. It's a bit like being stuck in an absurd theatre play.
When central bankers start talking about too much money, be afraid.
Gulf military exercise rattles Iran
http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20061030-091814-4268r
I would think the fact that Iran is rattled would make headline news.
North Korea to rejoin 6-nation nuclear talks: Bush hails deal, thanks Beijing; discussions could begin in next few months
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15494100/
The message this relays to casual readers is that worldwide tensions are relaxing and all is well.
Do you believe this?
Iran's Revolutionary Guards to hold new round of war-games
http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=9097
Some supposedly knowledgeable people have speculated that something might pop before the end of the year.
While there is no doubt that the US could inflict massive damage on Iran, the big unknown is what happens in the Middle East after the air attack is over.
Respected military analyst, William S. Lind, in a recent article raised concerns over the possibility of the US forces in Iraq being vulnerable to encirclement by having their supply lines from Kuwait cut by massive attacks by shiite militias aided by Iranian irregulars. He felt that air power might not be all that effective in preventing it. While it sounds a bit far-fetched to me, he has predicted things very accurately in the past (such as the mess that Iraq has become), so I don't totally dismiss that possibility.
Then again, maybe this is all a big game of high-stakes bluffing. Time will tell.
Kudos also for using the Citgo sign so nicely. Not sure if it has been mentioned here, but there was a brief movement to have it torn down after Hugo's lively UN presentation. Some local politico getting his name in the paper. Seems to have died down, fortunately. Sometimes a short attention span is a good thing...
Any links to this? (and how long till the shadowy government forces are blamed)
Right. Becasue anyone who hasn't bothered to spend money with him think he's some kind of bastard who has no value, and everyone who's paid money find everything he has to say a polished diamond, and even the NSA/CIA/Pentagon agents who have a subscription are well wishers.
Now that we have sorted all that out, perhaps someone can post a link for the uncaring bastards who wish him ill?
If he is being poisoned/attacked with electronic ranged weapons/space based lasers/whatever method you want to list....why would fleeing America to 'keep them from killing him' would suddenly stop the efforts of people who want to kill him?
Once he has died (now or from old age-natural causes) he'll be the topic of 'he was assassinated' talk for years.
Regardless of how things turn out on our little spaceship we call Earth, the rest of the universe goes on. I've always liked that fact. Remember, when the lights go out, we'll all be able to see the stars, and there won't be much else to do anyway after dark. I recommend getting a telescope and some paper star charts before TSHTF, of course. A Dobsonian-type would be best, or at least something not requiring electricity. It's very humbling to peer at a faint smudge of light and realize that it's a galaxy that contains over 100 million stars.
Khalid Al-Falih spoke of the enormous oil resources of SA stressing the fact that they need the knowledge base and the investment (in $$$$) of the U.S. to extract and process their incresingly heavy and sour petroleum.
Stephen Pryor said the U.S. will need 50 mbd from OPEC by the year 2030 - an increase of 50% from today's figures. He was very strong about the importance of improving efficiency everywhere - not just vehicles but also appliances, power plants, buildings, etc. (i.e. reduce consumption). He said that interdepence will bring the needed innovation that will improve efficiency.
Peter Robertson said that "the next 50 years are going to be very, very different from the next 50 years". He also stressed the importance of being "more respectful towards Middle-East countries".
All of them discarded reneweables as an energy source that will satisfy ever-increasing world energy demands.
Wow. I wonder what buggy-whip manufacturers projected in 1906 for demand in 1930?
Cars: It Pays to Drive Green
(A little off-topic, yes, but I couldn't resist. Maybe them bollards will be the future of urban traffic ..)
Video link at:
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/10/31/snow-lead-climate-change/
DOC, the documentary channel showed Waco: Rules of Engagement on Sunday. I couldn't help but think how vulnerable even well-armed citizens are to whoever controls the armored vehicles.
Democracy Now guests talked about increasing of rules requiring special ID to vote, rules restricting voter registration drives that were so strict that the League of Women Voters didn't qualify, that sort of thing.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/21/102525/040
This was a very interesting analysis by Khebab applying the new technique of Periodicity Transforms to try to identify cyclical behavior in oil prices and extrapolate it forwards. Khebab modeled price behavior up to August 1, near what turned out to be a price peak, and then the PT model predicted an abrupt drop to the mid-60s, which is pretty much what occured. However the PT model then predicted a reversal and by now prices should have been back in the mid-$70s on their way to the mid $80s. Unfortunately for the prediction, instead prices have remained on a downward trend. We are now well below the 95% confidence interval shown on the chart, hence we can reject the predictive accuracy of this method at the 5% level.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/16/195912/061
This was our most recent price poll, on September 16, asking for predictions through November 16. We're about two weeks away from that so it's worthwhile reviewing where we stand.
At $57 we are still well above the $53 threshold with two weeks to go, so it looks like there is a good chance that the 50% of TOD readers who predicted "trading range" will be correct. At the same time it's worth noting that readers favored 73 over 53 by a 3 to 1 margin, while in fact we are 3 times closer to 53 than to 73 at present. So the overall shape of the TOD belief curve is not turning out to match the reality too well, at least at this point.There are still two more weeks to go and a reversal is not impossible in that time frame. If the conspiracy theorists are right and there is some provocation or incident between the U.S. and Iran before the elections, that could send oil prices skyrocketing in a short time. These theories are running out of time though, with only a week before the elections.
Recall that in the previous poll:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/29/15449/2233
only 2% of TOD readers correctly predicted that we would hit 63 before 83. This time around the readership is clearly being more cautious and even if we hit 53 it won't be as much of a misprediction.
Oil exploration: Firms keep spending, will returns keep up?
What a shock.
Surface of Saturn's Moon Titan
from the Huygens space probe
Oh, wait, I forgot, it's just a matter of price...
[Some] economists ... think that if you show up at the cashier's cage with enough currency, God will put more oil in the ground
-- Ken Deffeyes
Nevermind
For CNN, covering this is a "promising premise". Predictable pity is, it slides into feel-good fast, even if it has to resort to blubber:
Chevron spends 42% more, produces only 8% more, and it's called a fairly decent rise. Rest assured there's some heads in headquarters who think not.
I'd like to know what the EROEI drops down to when these things happen. You spend 35% more money, but how much more energy do you spend?
They have more dough to spend, high oil prices and all that, but doesn't that simply mean the situation is far worse than the numbers already indicate?
I find Bezdek's reply a little disconcerting, I'll add.
Tad Patzek on Brazilian Ethanol
But I doubt this will be a reality check for some of the Silicon Valley snobs who seem to believe that they can innovate their way to anything.
Yearly averages are for All Liquids are still down for 2006 107,000 barrels per day from 2005. Crude + Condensate is down even more. It is down an average of134,000 barrels per day in 2006 from 2005.
Ron Patterson
My money's still on Deffeyes....
A large part of this decrease is due to an upwards revision of US production in 2005 of 57,000 bpd in crude+condensate and of 73,000 bpd in all liquids.
I saw a comment yesterday or the day before, listing a heap of benefits from the combination of wind power and <acronym title="vehicle-to-grid">V2G</acronym> operation from EV's. Single-digit percentages of EV's or PHEV's could allow up to 60% penetration of wind power... IIRC.
I say IIRC because I can't find it any more. I think it was here. Can anyone point me to it?
This is mighty frustrating. I've been trying to find it all day.
The V in V2G
Putting More Wind on the Wire with V2G
Also, with respect to load balancing of solar PV and wind electricity generation, Shinnar and Citro's research on solar thermal is important. Their recent article in Science gives an overview of their models and projections, and there are similar documents available for free from the Clean Fuels Institute. I recommend "Solar Thermal Energy: The Forgotten Energy Source" and "Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy Mix."
(Belatedly bookmarked under "Wind", "Vehicles" AND "DSM"!)
Why shorten the life and hasten the 2nd/3rd mortgage day of replacement just to help our friend the utility out ?
That is one reason Vehicle to Grid will not work IMO.
Better to invest in hydro pumped storage. Cheaper per kWh, lasts for centuries, no hazardous waste disposal issues, no incompentent homeowners operating it. String an HV DC line if it is too far away.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Then there are chemistries like Altair Nano's titanium spinel cathode. 15,000 cycles from 0 to 100% isn't something you're going to exhaust easily.
Because the car needs the batteries anyway, the cost of using vehicle batteries to do the job is a lot less than the next-cheapest option, and the utility may pay you to help out?Example, Wednesday 3 PM, August 2, 20XX. Record heat wave, local wind calm in high pressure system. All FF & nuke at 100% (they can fill storage too in heat wave at 3 AM) and more power needed.
92% of EVs are "off grid" and in employee parking lots, shopping, parked at mass transit stations. Storage is desperately needed to prevent blackouts and only 8% of EV batteries are available.
OTOH, pumped storage is on-line and load following (marginal source of electricity minute by minute).
Which is cheaper ?
Best Hopes,
Alan
When is non-OPEC oil slated to peak? When is the great OPEC/non-OPEC crossover supposed to occur? Would this event be considered the early warning sign that global oil peak is actually in sight?
Regards.
I have been doing some more thinking on our declining postPeak food supply. Even if wheat or corn is grown locally without FF inputs, then bicycled home to be used starting from it's most raw form, this may not be as efficient as having a community flour mill & bakery.
In my mind's eye: it makes more sense to have a watermill or windmill do the grinding or milling versus a bunch of individuals pounding grains with a stump on a rock. If grains, or other vegetables need drying or dehydration, a community solar oven is much better for volume efficiency and security than individuals doing this alone on their property. Also, a bunch of bakers, using either solar ovens or firewood, should be able to make more bread more efficiently than individual families on their own.
Perhaps this might be a good method to jumpstart the permaculture labor shift-- each neighborhood building small, but highly efficient solar bakeries and flour mills. If one considers how much trucking energy is burned now to basically move a balloon of air in the shape of bread loaves from the regional bakeries to the local grocery stores-- it would make sense to relocalize bakeries very fast. Besides, nothing smells or tastes better than bread, pastries, and cookies fresh from the oven. My guess is the investment payback would be much faster than the investment payback on windmills & solar tech dedicated to making electricity.
In short, I think most of us would prefer to sit in the dark--but still eating bread, versus having some electricity--but starving to death.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
First you can store corn and wheat safely at about 12 percent moisture. That and below will not allow for the eggs of weevils and other life forms to hatch. It takes some moisture level for that to happen. So the sun can easily dry the grain to the right moisture level quite easily. Corn in a dry spot and with the husks removed will usually dry itself enough. I have some in my basement rignt now still on the ear and sufficiently dry from this years crop.
BUT you must then store it in airtight plastic bags or food safe drums. I have wheat from 2 yrs ago in some gallon plastic bags and no weevil action as yet.
Grinding: Better to NOT grind the grain until you get near to using it. Grind only what you need. This keeps it from going stale or oxidizing or whatever.
I use a steel burr grinder called Harvest Home IIRC. I have it currently on motor power but the large handle for hand cranking it is still there and one can easily rig a bicycle rear tire with a belt to grind it as well. Doesn't take really that long to grind out a pound or two of corn meal and sift it a bit. Same with wheat. Fun in fact to do it. Later it might be a chore but the labor is really not that much.
Baking. I bake a lot of bread time permitting. I use both San Francisco sourdough culture and yeast , but not together. The sourdough refuses to mold and just gets hard so I grind it with a blender into breadcrumbs which are very handy for cooking.
Ah..so..then a WoodGas stove with a baking apparatus would be the way to go. Whilst your in your favorite hideout hole and the commune has been raided for breedable wimmen and slaves you are snugged down in your goosedown sleeping bag,good to 30 degrees below, you lookout Jack Russel is on guard. Your trip wires are rigged and your sawed off MadMax 12 guage is close by.
The world is still going and your part of it. Your plans have worked well. Tomorrow you will smoke and make jerky of the young fat doe you got with your Hoyt FeatherLight yesterday.
You dream then of making your own raid for a breedable female. A helpmeet , so to speak. One who would appreciate a nice hand cranked grain mill and a big cache of wheat and corn.
Nothing like a good pot of grits to get going by in the morning and that Kentucky Coffee tree down in the holler gives you all the beans one needs.