Shia are a minority in Saudi Arabia, probably constituting about 5 percent of the total population, their number being estimated from a low of 200,000 to as many as 1 million. Shia are concentrated primarily in the Eastern Province, where they constituted perhaps 33 percent of the population, being concentrated in the oases of Qatif and Al Ahsa. Saudi Shia belong to the sect of the Twelvers, the same sect to which the Shia of Iran and Bahrain belong. The Twelvers believe that the leadership of the Muslim community rightfully belongs to the descendants of Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet, through Ali's son Husayn. There were twelve such rightful rulers, known as Imams, the last of whom, according to the Twelvers, did not die but went into hiding in the ninth century, to return in the fullness of time as the messiah (mahdi) to create the just and perfect Muslim society.

Having worked for a very well-known management consulting firm about a 100 years ago, I think it is not too much of an exaggeration to describe them as intellectual massage parlors, a chief purpose of which is to make the client feel good about what he is already doing while at the same time giving him the illusion that he is participating in a rigorous objective analysis.  It's not easy to pull this off, and Yergin et al are world-class masters of this art.

Okay, let me see: there are 688 million barrels of oil in the SPR (supposedly). We use almost 25 million barrels of oil a day in this country. By my caluclations, thanks to Excel, that's about 27 days of supply, not 18 months. Somehow I don't think other countries and the EIA would be happy to lend us their reserves, despite what this article says.

So, if we had Iranian oil supplies cut off for 18 months and wanted to make that oil last, even with our domestic oil supplies and other imports, that still spells serious rationing to me. And where is that oil going to go? Here's a hint: it ain't going to be into the gas tank of your SUV.

Brian Brown and his family moved to Gilbert from Orange County, Calif., two years ago.
...
The move did mean a 54-mile commute to his job at a Trader Joe's store in Glendale way on the other side of Phoenix. In fact, commuting in fast-growing suburbs can be a major challenge.
...
Has the family found a sense of community here? He pauses before answering: "Not yet. If anything, that is one of the hardest things for us. In California, everything was at our fingertips - restaurants, shops, entertainment. We really miss that a lot."

Also interesting is the comparison graphic below:

Got Peak Milk?

:: Ask Your Candidates about Global Warming and Energy
October 4, 2006 07:54 AM - Jeff McIntire-Strasburg, St. Louis, MO

questionsforcandidates.JPG

Mid-term congressional elections are just over a month away in the US, and much of the debate among candidates stays focused on Iraq, terrorism, and immigration. While these are important issues, one has to wonder why energy and global warming aren't also a bigger part of discussion after the blitz of media attention, and even some political debate, earlier in the year (remember "oil addiction?").

(had not seen a link to 'questions for candidates.org' and TOD is about doing something....)

Says Econbrowser, and has some stats to show it.

Chavez's cheap oil valued over politics for some Americans

QUINCY, Massachusetts (Reuters) - With a chill of autumn in the air, Bridget Durkin welcomes cheap heat for her Massachusetts home, even if it comes from a Venezuelan leader who called President Bush "the devil."

"If people are really hard up, politics will be the furthest thing from their mind," said Durkin, 71, who has relied on government subsidies to heat her home in Quincy, a suburb of Boston, since her husband died 20 years ago.

Canadian September auto sales rise 9.3%

Japan-based automaker Honda has roared past a landmark in the Canadian auto industry, surging ahead of Ford and Chrysler in sales last month with a 46 per cent increase over September of last year.

Total Canadian vehicle sales were 135,764, up 9.3 per cent from September of 2005, when buyers were disheartened by startling spikes in gasoline prices and by the phase-out of employee-discounts-for-all promotions by the North American Big Three.

"A case can also be made that Ford and perhaps DaimlerChrysler are dangerously close to what might be called the slippery slope," he added, noting that positive consumer impressions of Toyota and Honda clash with a constant toll of bad news about Ford and Chrysler.

"Once you get on this slope, companies find it very slippery and thus difficult to get off."

click to enlarge

http://energikrise.blogspot.com/

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Eni SpA and partners in the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan, the biggest discovery in three decades, risk years of delays because of design changes and extra costs.

The $29 billion project will miss its target of pumping oil in 2008 and the development will run over budget, the venture partners and Kazakh officials said. Kazakhstan, which is among the top 10 countries in terms of oil reserves, needs to tap the field to meet its goal of almost tripling production by 2015.

``Delays and technological risks may postpone and correct the output target for two to three years,'' said Zhakyp Marabaev, a director of the exploration unit of KazMunaiGaz, the state-run Kazakh energy company, at an oil conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan's financial capital.

Oil companies are having to tackle more complicated and costly projects as older fields are depleted. Royal Dutch Shell Plc last year doubled to more than $20 billion its investment plans for an oil and gas project in Russia's Far East. BP Plc last month said its Thunder Horse production platform in the Gulf of Mexico won't start until at least the middle of 2008, more than two years behind schedule.

Companies may spend about $29.3 billion between 2006 and 2015 to tap fields in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea. The nation plans to pump as much as 3.6 million barrels of crude a day in 2015, up from 1.4 million barrels a day pumped on average in the first nine months of this year, according to a Kazakh oil ministry forecast.

Meeting Safety Standards

The Kashagan project's design will have to be changed because existing plans don't meet safety standards, said Philippe Rochoux, director general of Total Exploration and Production in Kazakhstan. A decision on new designs and the timetable for starting operations will be made by year's end.

``The project is now progressing in the stage where we are reconsidering some initial project'' parameters, Umberto Carrara, a managing director at Eni's Agip KCO, which is operating the venture, told the conference in Almaty.

The Kazakh government had planned for Kashagan to start in 2008. The first oil will be pumped beyond 2009, Kazakh Energy Minister Baktykozha Izmukhambetov said today.

Hurting Profit

``It could be delayed by several years: 2008 is not possible,'' Rochoux said. ``Costs are going to be higher.''

Eni, Europe's fourth-largest oil and gas company, in March said the first phase of developing the field in Kazakhstan would cost between $4 billion and $5 billion more than forecast due to a weaker U.S. dollar and the higher cost of equipment. The company in 2004 put the total cost at $29 billion over 15 years.

Rome-based Eni leads a group of partners, which include Exxon Mobil Corp., Shell, Total and KazMunaiGaz in developing Kashagan.

Delays could hurt the earnings and share performance of the companies involved in the project, said Franco Pozzoli, who holds Eni stock as part of the $250 million of assets he helps manage at Meliorbanca SpA in Milan.

``This will prolong the time it takes to gain a return on the significant investments the companies have already made,'' said Pozzoli. ``The oil majors have to make huge investments to find new resources. These are costs that are much higher than we've seen in the past and that's likely to have a negative outlook on the bottom line. The outlook is for a significant drop in net income among the majors over the next three years.''

Export Route

Paris-based Total is developing plans to export crude from Kashagan to the Mediterranean via a BP-led pipeline that links the Azeri capital of Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. A decision on the $4 billion investment to allow oil to be shipped from Kashagan to Baku and onward will be made by the end of 2007, Rochoux said today.

``As Kashagan will be delayed, there is less urgency now,'' Rochoux said. Total is interested in expanding in Kazakhstan and is examining everything ``on the market,'' Rochoux said.

The French company still wants to acquire a stake in the Caspian Sea's Kurmangazy field, which is being developed by KazMunaiGaz and OAO Rosneft, the Russian state-owned oil company. There are no negotiations at the moment, after the first well drilled at the field came up dry.

``Of course it raises some question marks,'' Rochoux said. ``We're trying to understand whether there are still some hopes to find some oil.''

Petrocan delays oil sands project decision

DAVID EBNER
00:00 EDT Wednesday, October 04, 2006

CALGARY -- Petro-Canada is pushing back the decision to proceed with its oil sands mining project, which could cost as much as $19-billion, based on industry trends.

Ron Brenneman, Petrocan's chief executive officer, told investors and financial analysts at a company presentation in Calgary yesterday that the firm will decide in 2008 whether to build the Fort Hills project, in which it is the lead partner with junior UTS Energy Corp. and miner Teck Cominco Ltd.

Petrocan had planned to make its decision by the end of 2007. It still hopes to have first oil production in 2011, though that could also be delayed, the company said.

"The important thing is to get it right," Neil Camarta, Petrocan's senior vice-president of oil sands, told reporters after he spoke at the event.

Petrocan is the latest company to concede that the extreme pressures in the Fort McMurray region of Alberta, including shortages of construction workers and steel, are having an impact on project start-up goals. In August, Total SA of France said its project won't produce oil until 2013, three years later than its previous goal.

Calgary-based Petrocan began its presentation to investors with the results of an "investor perception study." Mr. Brenneman, a former Exxon Mobil Corp. executive and onetime president of its Canadian arm, Imperial Oil Ltd., said the company was trying to be more responsive.

"We seem to have been overpromising and underdelivering," Mr. Brenneman said.

One issue the study noted was to "increase CEO exposure."

Mr. Brenneman did not speak with reporters after his presentation.

During his talk, he said Petrocan wants to double its proved and probable reserves in the next five years, repeating its performance of the past five years.

"There's lots of growth for this company in the hopper," Mr. Brenneman said.

The company's oil sands mining project, located north of Fort McMurray, is currently forecast to produce 170,000 barrels of raw bitumen a day, which is expected to be upgraded into as much as 145,000 barrels of synthetic crude oil at a facility to be built near Edmonton.

The company does not have a preliminary cost estimate yet. Yesterday, it presented a general cost range -- of between $13-billion and $19-billion -- based on recent announcements made by competitors, including Shell Canada Ltd. The company's goal is to have a preliminary estimate by the end of the year, but Mr. Camarta said it might be early next year.

Petrocan presented a reasonable view on costs and timing, given that Fort Hills is in the early stages, said Ari Levy, a vice-president at TD Asset Management Inc., one of Petrocan's five largest shareholders. "They're responsibly putting out a wide range," Mr. Levy said.

On the potential for a delay in the Fort Hills' startup, Mr. Levy said it was "not an unimportant factor," but noted that the long-term price of oil and the need to build a robust facility were also important issues.

One slide shown to investors indicated that in five of six scenarios, Fort Hills might only make a single-digit return. Mr. Camarta said the company was trying to design the project so it could produce a return of 10 per cent or more.

Beyond the mining project, Petrocan is also developing oil sands properties that require steam injection to draw bitumen to the surface. The company said it plans to focus on several main properties and might sell some fringe assets. It also owns an eighth of Syncrude Canada Ltd., one of three operating oil sands mines.

The cost to improve Petrocan's Edmonton refinery so it can handle oil sands output has risen to $2-billion from $1.6-billion, partly because of design changes, the company said.

Stock of Petrocan fell $2.70 or 6.1 per cent to $41.91 on the Toronto Stock Exchange yesterday as the energy index fell 5.2 per cent. The price of oil fell below $60 (U.S.) a barrel and some investors rushed to sell their energy holdings.

Pension crises looming all over

United Airlines flight attendants pose in a 2005 calendar titled "Stewardess Stripped," protesting the fact that United Airlines had defaulted on its pension plan. At a cost of US$6.6-billion, it was the largest pension default in U.S. history

A weakened investment environment in recent years, caused principally by sustained low interest rates, has resulted in a host of company pension plans falling into a deficit position -- in which there are insufficient assets in the fund to cover the anticipated withdrawals by existing and future pensioners.

The big high-profile funding failures have been in the United States at car manufacturers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp., as well as major airlines such as United.

In Canada, too, there have been headline-making company pension issues at, for instance, Air Canada, Stelco Inc., and Nortel Networks Corp. In fact, the aggregate pension funding deficit of the TSX 60 in 2005 was $20.5-billion -- a figure that has risen after three years of relative stability near the $15-billion mark, according to a recent report by UBS Investment Research.

In addition, many companies have switched from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans to ease the burden. But in fact all that may have done is shift the burden from employers to employees.

Meanwhile, record numbers of ageing boomers are set to have a longer retirement period than ever before, straining the limited resources of pension funds that will be paid for by fewer productive workers -- even waves of younger immigrants can do little to alleviate Canada's looming old-age dependency problems over the next 50 years, said a recent paper released by the C.D. Howe Institute.

Fight over Kirkuk intensifies

The security situation in the northern oil-rich city of Kirkuk has further deteriorated over the past few weeks after the Iraqi government formed a committee assigned to "normalise the situation".

The creation of that committee under a constitutional provision has led to a rise in ethnic tensions between Kirkuk's Kurdish, Arab and Turkomen populations. Violence has risen with the tensions.

September has been one of the bloodiest months for Kirkuk, with an unprecedented number of attacks.

Seen as a microcosm of Iraq for its mix of several ethnicities, Kirkuk awaits an uncertain future as disagreements about the future of the province increase. A victim of its oil wealth, Kirkuk has for long been a divisive issue in Iraq's politics.

Many Kurds say Kirkuk is really a Kurdish province, and that large numbers of ethnic Arabs were settled there by the Saddam regime - a move that Article 140 could undo. They also see the Turkomens, a people of Turkish descent, as outsiders. But each of Kirkuk's ethnic groups claims historical ownership over the city.

Turkomens claim that Kirkuk has been historically a Turkomen-dominated city. Arab leaders say they were legally settled in the province and have a right to stay there. Kurds say that before the start of the Saddam-led ethnic-cleansing policies, Kurds constituted the majority of the population in the province.

Turkey claims it acts to protect the Turkomen community in Kirkuk, but not all Turkomens welcome its intervention. Turkomen leader Irfan Kirkuli says Turkomens will be better off joining a Kurdish autonomous area. He also warned against interference by outside powers, saying "they aim to create turmoil and tension in Kirkuk."

Turkey has been exercising diplomatic and local pressure in support of the Turkomens. Several commentators say Turkey wants to block creation of an autonomous Kurd region in order to limit the aspirations of its own Kurdish population.

Slate magazine on merits of gasoline price manipulation for electoral benefits theory