DrumBeat: November 14, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 11/14/06 at 1:43 PM EDT]

Permits issued for controversial oil shale tests

BLM OKs, though Colorado, USGS and activists have concerns

DENVER - Companies hoping to tap an estimated 100-year supply of shale oil locked in rock formations under Colorado, Utah, and southwest Wyoming have won federal approval for experimental extraction projects.

The decision comes despite comments from state and federal agencies and environmentalists that threats to air and water were understated or not adequately analyzed.

Not since the 1980s have companies been as interested as they are now in extracting oil from the rock, which has historically been a laborious and expensive process.

Bush's only big ally on warming shifts stand

Australian prime minister now willing to look at carbon trading

SYDNEY, Australia - Australia’s leader said Tuesday he wants to consider an international carbon trading system to fight global warming, signaling a shift toward a part of the Kyoto agreement that he has steadfastly refused to ratify.


Russia faces gas shortfall, leaked report claims

Russia's future as an energy superpower has been called into question by claims that it will not produce enough gas next year to satisfy both foreign and domestic demand due to years of under-investment.

Russia boasts 26.6 per cent of the world's gas reserves and Gazprom, the state-controlled energy giant, is the world's largest producer of gas.

But a leaked report from Russia's Energy Ministry says gas is not being extracted as quickly or efficiently as it should be and next year, for the first time, there will be a small shortfall.


Bodman Concerned Russia Slow to Develop Oil Reserves

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman expressed concern Monday that Russia, an important non-OPEC oil producer, was developing its oil reserves at too slow a pace.

Not a proponent of the "peak oil" concept that postulates world oil production will soon reach its peak, Bodman said he was increasingly concerned that global oil reserves weren't being developed at a pace that could comfortably keep up with growth in global oil demand.


Blair faces revolt over C02 targets

Tony Blair faces a major Commons revolt over his refusal to commit Britain to annual cuts in the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

The opposition parties and more than 200 Labour MPs have demanded that the Climate Change Bill, which will be announced in this week's Queen's Speech, include a promise to reduce C02 emissions by 3 per cent each year.


"No greater legacy" for Bush than climate deal: UK


Report to offer climate change evidence

NAIROBI, Kenya - A long-awaited report by an international scientific network will offer much stronger evidence of how man is changing Earth's climate, and should prompt balky governments into action against global warming, the group's chief scientist said Monday.


No magic bullet for carbon pollution, says IEA chief

NAIROBI - The world's economies have no alternative to boosting energy efficiency and lowering carbon emissions to tackle global warming, as clean energy lies decades away as a mainstream source, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.


France nuke waste shipment reaches Germany

GORLEBEN, Germany - A shipment of reprocessed nuclear waste arrived at a German storage site early Monday after a more than two-day journey from western France disrupted by protesters.


Surviving the Future: Peak oil piques interest at Boston conference:

There were beards and dreadlocks, jeans and business suits, academics, environmentalists, entrepreneurs and others concerned about what the future will look like at the end of cheap oil.

The Second Annual 2006 Boston World Oil Conference was the draw, attracting 500 people, including college students and senior citizens worried about the future of their grandchildren.


A Green Future

Some critics of the sustainability movement assert that the issue will be rendered moot when fossil fuel prices revert to previous low levels. The historical pattern, such critics assert, is for fuel prices to settle back to affordability. For that and other reasons, several leading institutions, including some full university systems, have yet to adopt sustainability resolutions. Critics seeking to stall green initiatives are playing a dangerous game. It is risky to predict fuel prices based on past history. Several researchers, for example, believe that the world has reached peak oil production, which means that wider recognition of a finite supply could lead to stockpiling, hoarding, even wars — all developments counter to the what-goes-up-must-come-down argument.


Byron W. King - 2006 Boston ASPO: The Canadian tar sands

Forgive me if I call them tar sands, dear readers. I know that the marketing people want to call them "oil" sands, because it is better for the real estate values. After all, would you rather have oil on your land or tar?


U.S. politicians not ready for the future

Another problem is Iraq, Peak Oil and the future of the dollar. These three interwoven problems threaten America’s economic future like nothing else.

We have to ask ourselves if the invasion of Iraq was the first currency war. Was it for oil or against the Euro? And will Peak Oil become the death knell for the American century and our industrial civilization?


Post-election compromise, or a tin ear in Detroit?

Since the late 1980s, in the aftermath of the 1985 oil price crash, Detroit and Congress have seemed joined at the hip in a mutual suicide pact. Detroit promises to pound out larger and faster vehicles, and key members of Congress swear they will sideline any effort to tighten fuel efficiency standards.


Jim Kunstler: Democrats and 'Energy Independence'

The day after the impressive Democratic election victory, Senate Majority Leader-to-Be Harry Reid declared that a top priority for the new congress would be policy leading to "energy independence" for America. The time of jubilee will certainly come, but not in the way Harry Reid thinks it will - nor in the way the rest of the country imagines this idea.


U.S. Power Industry Deregulation Flawed, Buffett Says


Warren Buffett's nuclear ante

A cursory history of the world's attempts to control nuclear weapons would essentially encompass two chapters: Before Sept. 11, 2001, and after Sept. 11, 2001.


Pump fiction: Prop 87 - The right outcome for the wrong reason


Malaysia's biodiesel output can double by end-2007


Will Mexico be ready when oil runs dry?

From a 2004 peak output of more than 2.1 million barrels of oil a day, Cantarell is down to 1.8 million b/d today, and will continue to diminish in the coming years. And its waning only seems to underscore the challenges facing the country's monopolistic state-run oil giant, Petroleos Mexicanos.


El Paso Says Repairs Underway to Damaged Pipeline


Nato fears Russian plans for ‘gas Opec’

Nato advisers have warned the military alliance that it needs to guard against any attempt by Russia to set up an “Opec for gas” that would strengthen Moscow’s leverage over Europe.

A confidential study by Nato economics experts, sent to the ambassadors of its 26 member states last week, warned that Russia may be seeking to build a gas cartel including Algeria, Qatar, Libya, the countries of Central Asia and perhaps Iran.


GE, Hitachi to join nuclear-power businesses

BOSTON/TOKYO - U.S. conglomerate General Electric Co. and Japan's Hitachi Ltd. said Monday they planned to pool their nuclear units in a $2 billion enterprise they hope will capture more contracts as power suppliers gear up to build a new generation of plants.
I believe gas prices are poised to turn up as inventories have been pulled down. It was just a matter of time before someone cried foul, and it was none other than Jamie Court, my "favorite" consumer watchdog. From the Sacramento Bee:

"There was a political motive to keep gasoline prices low," said Jamie Court, president of the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights in Santa Monica. "Now that the election's over, we're going to see prices going up. ... Oil companies are going to go back to artificially shorting the market."

Shouldn't a basic understanding of economics be required before criticizing an industry? Court has made these claims before - that oil companies were "artifically" shorting the market. But it seems he doesn't have to provide evidence of his claims; he just makes them.

I wrote a short essay last night on Court's history of making claims like this:

A Case Study in Cluelessness

It's easily answered by the majors.  Just release the refinery margins for Aug-Oct vs May-June.
How would that answer it? Margins were better in May-June, because prices were higher. Supply and demand.

What answers the question is to look at refinery utilization versus supply. If supply was falling and refinery utilization was down for some unexplicable reason, then you have an actual suspect.

I am watching the gasoline-middle distallates spread.

This is subject to manipulation by a handful of refiners.  Refine a mix biased towards gasoline (lean on diesel) despite market signals and this will affect "pump prices".  Other reifners go in the opposite direction, but are limited by constraints in operation.

Thay can claim some issues with very low sulfur diesel production to explain their actions.

Impossible to prove, but I have NEVER seen such spreads !

Alan

This is subject to manipulation by a handful of refiners.

Actually, it would take a good deal more than a handful, and they would have to work together across multiple companies.

However, I am not saying that governments can't manipulate prices. They can. By not filling the SPR, you can lower demand and put downward pressure on prices. By toning down the rhetoric on Iran, you can calm the markets and put downward pressure on prices. Both have been done, with the likely intent of keeping prices down. But no oil company has the stroke to do this.

In theory, if Exxon-Mobil, Shell, Chevron-Texaco and BP shifted their refining mix towards gasoline when the market demand was for more diesel/av fuel/home heating oil, it could dramatically widen the delta between those products (note VLS diesel has limited capacity for that large product segment).  Those 4 oil companies have enough refining capacity to tilt the spread between gasoline & middle distillates world-wide.

Over time, other refiners would compensate and the spread would narrow despite uneconomic behavior by the named four.  But several months would be required by the rest of the industry.

The recent spread was astounding IMHO !

Alan

In theory, if Exxon-Mobil, Shell, Chevron-Texaco and BP shifted their refining mix towards gasoline when the market demand was for more diesel/av fuel/home heating oil, it could dramatically widen the delta between those products (note VLS diesel has limited capacity for that large product segment).

But since distillate inventories are reported on a weekly basis, such a move would be quite transparent. I think most refiners would love to make more distillate, but they have contracts with gasoline customers that must be satisfied.  

Funny you mention that.

Here in San Diego, Diesel fuel is 10-15c more than premium gasoline.   Diesel is $2.70 or so and regular unleaded $2.25.

That's very unusual in my observation.

From landline magazine here is a report of how some in the fuel business have left truckers steaming:

Fires still burning on hot fuel issue http://www.landlinemag.com/todays_news/Daily/2006/Nov06/111306/111406-01.htm

Since August, The Kansas City Star has done an excellent job covering an issue that makes truckers' blood boil - the issue of oil companies manipulating the temperature of fuel at the pump to overcharge consumers.

The OOIDA Foundation contributed to the original series by Star reporter Steve Everly, who brought the issue to the mainstream.

Petroleum fuel expands and contracts in hot and cold temperatures, so about 100 years ago, a standard was put in place to measure fuel volumes at its optimum temperature of 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

As Everly pointed out, with support from OOIDA Foundation's John Siebert, American consumers are being cheated out of between $1.2 and $1.7 billion each year as companies manipulate fuel temperatures.

It's all legal, at least for now, Everly stated in his series.

The latest story, published Sunday, Nov. 12, was called "Loophole enhances `hot fuel' profits."

The story focuses on how the same oil companies are also using the manipulation of fuel temperatures while paying federal fuel taxes - meaning they are buying low and selling high in a "legal loophole."

The companies may continue to profit from hot fuel, but neither the Star nor OOIDA are backing down from informing people that the practice is unethical.

"The nation's truckers take fuel-tax issues personally," Siebert stated in the article, which can be found by clicking here.

Nah, it was a bunch of people right here at TOD. Who were very suspicious that you vanished as soon as prices started to rise.  ;-)
Robert,

Unfortunately most people (including most educated people) seem to prefer living in their dumbfounded bliss of conspiracy, and evil master plots.

I have found that when dicussing the realities of fuel / oil / gas prices, most people do not understand the supply and demand dynamic, they assume it's due to Bush, or big oil.  You even see this rhetoric in the senate and house, now whether it's to gain votes or these people actually believe this I don't know.

Ignorance is bliss... I used to know nothing of Peak oil.

Unfortunately most people (including most educated people) seem to prefer living in their dumbfounded bliss of conspiracy, and evil master plots.

When there is evidence of 'evil master plots' like:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=b urning+of+the+german+parliament&spell=1
Burning of the Reichstag
http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/public/press_releases/1996/1030.htm
Price fixing Lysine
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=lavon+affair&btnG=Search
Lavon affair   Egyptian, American and British-owned targets in Egypt were bombed
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=operation+northwoods&btnG=Search
Operation Northwoods

(I would go further back in history of other 'evil master plots', but my history knowledge is lacking, and the list could get quite long)

What are you offering as a solution so the past 'evil master plots' don't happen in the future?   I've advocated open, transperant government and corporations...not like it will happen however.   What is your solution, beyond calling others 'dumbfounded bliss of conspiracy,'?

You got it all wrong eric. Enron got a bad rap. Imagine thinking you could staff a whole corporation with persons who had no ethics. That no one would blow the whistle. Imagine that the entire business press would laud a thoroughly corrupt organization as the best corporation in the world.
That could never happen.
Imagine that politicians and regulators at every level would grease the skids for a corrupt conspiracy like Enron.
No that could never happen.
Imagine that one corporation with basically no non-fictive assets could rig the electric markets in the state of California and steal billions and do it in broad daylight. And buy a new governor to halt investigation.
No eric that could never happen you've been wearing the tinfoil hat way too long.
Imagine that years after all was in the open the conspirators would still find defenders and enablers.
And the news media would feed any suggestion that Enron was being picked on and that the sweet old (rich) men who fleeced us all were being prosecuted unfairly.
eric blair you are so out of line thinking corporate America is not the tooth fairy.
Spot on Oldhippie.

People at Enron could never have gotten together in smoke filled rooms and around conspiratorial roundtables to plot and put together fictious corporate entitities named after raptors, not with all those lawyers, accountants and government oversight beaureacracies watching over them. No way. It's impossible that so many people can join in to form a conspiracy of fools and no one would squeal --for years and years.

And it could have never happened at WorldCom either.

Nor at Adelphia.

Nor at countless other places.

And no way that "they" could be conspiring to backdate stock options with everyone watching over their shoulders!

Only a blithering village idiot could conceive of such conspiracies (ha ha ha) being cobbled together day after day, in this, the bestest and noblest government in the whole world that money can buy off!

The proof is in the ad hominen attack verbage.
Make sure to never be confused by the facts.
Reality is not what it seems.

Hi Robert-
   Did you have a successful hunt?

I personaly think the Neocons and big oil would have lowered the price of oil if they could in order to inflence the elections, its just the market is too damn big for thheir leverage to work. The united States uses approximately 1/4th of world production-about 22 million bbl/day. The national oil companies of the world produce and sell 80% of the world production, most of it from countries overtly hostile to the Neocons. The Majors own 40% of the US gasoline market./ There was no huge draw down in stocks during the last couple of months or marked decrease in purchase of oil or increase in the amount of refined products sold.
   If anything happened during the  election cycle to chcycle to change prices at all it was OPEC's announced  attempt to restore high prices by shutting in production.  , and this didn't work. I think the market is just too big.For manipulation on the scale to work a company or angel would have to be ready to risk billions of dollars with the knowledge that if word of the manipulation got out they would very probably get huge punishment. The risk is too big for the return.
  But I also think that public perception isn't going to change. I bet more than half the people in the US beleive the conspiracy theory, its more conforting than the truth which is that  prices are out of anyones control..So look for a bunch of flack and possibly punative legislation aimed at the Majors-a Windfall Profits Tax.
  My best hunch for the real reason for the price decline is 50% a slowing economy and 50% the collapse of Amarynth made the hedge fund yahoos pull in their horns. The speculation premium has decreased a lot.

it was OPEC's announced  attempt to restore high prices by shutting in production.  , and this didn't work.

Well, the cutbacks only began two weeks ago, and reduced shipments are only now arriving, or not arriving, at ports. we'll see if they are successful in managing western stocks by year end.

Did you have a successful hunt?

I did. I made a 400 yard shot on a moving target to get a medium-sized 4x4. I will be eating venison at every meal until I leave for Scotland.

I personaly think the Neocons and big oil would have lowered the price of oil if they could in order to inflence the elections, its just the market is too damn big for thheir leverage to work.

I think that's exactly right. I have heard very high-ranking oil executives who fret that prices are too high, and this will hurt the economy and ultimately come back to hurt the oil companies. But they don't have the power to just go out and lower prices.


I made a 400 yard shot on a moving target to get a medium-sized 4x4.

You shot a SUV ??
Or a deer with 4wd ??

Triff ..

I confess, that thought crossed my mind, too.  

I always will remember,
'Twas a year ago November,
I went out to hunt some deer
On a morning bright and clear.
I went and shot the maximum the game laws would allow:
Two game wardens, seven hunters, and a cow.
First belly-laugh of my day.  (I'm a fan too.)
Maybe a sign post?
Much more efficient !  High EROEI :-)

Hunt the hunters and take their prey !

:-P

Alan

I am used to hunting whitetails, and in whitetail terminology it was an 8 point. But in mule deer and elk country, they typically refer to them as a 4x4, 5x4, etc., or they just call a 4x4 a 4 point.
I think he is saying...8 point buck.

Never heard NxN used before but if so it makes sense.

I think I would prefer a tender doe myself. I really don't hanker much for venison but they ate so much of my garden this year that I need some payback.

Hear Hear.  They ate most of my potato, tomato, and eggplant leaves.  Since when do they browse on supposedly-toxic  nightshades?
payback indeed
gluttonous beasts
I've a 6.5 foot electric fence that I'm going to raise to 8 feet this winter. expensive but effective I hope. also, I grew about 2000 sq. feet of alfalfa this year. it sorta work as a trap crop for the bastards
I heard of several people in an Austin suburb who put out a string hammock as a trap.  When a deer became entangled, bring out pistol, shoot, skin & butcher.  Exception to discharge of firearms  in this special case.

Excellent EROEI !

Alan

but remember he is talking about big wyoming  a 4wd with a gun rack is standard equipment
What was the gallons/pound ratio for your venison?  Maybe not a fair question for something that's 90% recreation.  It might be theoretically possible to hunt without a motor vehicle in my area, but one would need a lot of time.  
I probably walked around 10 miles a day. But you are right, it is more of a vacation. But I think my EROEI was probably pretty good, because I will end up with over 200 pounds of venison.
Compared to the gallons that go into the manufacture of two hundred pounds of beef, I'd say you're doing very well.

If you play your cards right, the royals might take you our for a little stag hunt at Balmoral.

claims before - that oil companies were "artifically" shorting the market.

At one time there were claims of market manipulation of the lysine market.   At one point in time people claimed Enron was  creating artifical sortages in the electricity market.  

And employees of ADM and Enron said 'nope, baseless charge'.  Guess what?  Courts have found the charges to be true.

At one point in time people claimed Haliburton got a better deal because the Vice President used to be the leader at Haliburton.  (this has not been proven as 'true' in a court of law, but memos have been released supporting the claim)

How do you know what the bosses do behind close doors?  Do you believe that the leadership class within the (oil) corporations wouldn't enmgage in price manipulation if they felt they could get away with it?

Eric Blair,
  Note that I said the Majors and the Neocons would manipulate the market if they could, I  just don't think its possible. If the Saudi ruling family can't do it I doubt its possible. They've been tryng to restore high prices since the drop started unsuccessfully.
Note that I said the Majors and the Neocons would manipulate the market if they could, I  just don't think its possible.

I do not know if the manipulation is possible, but I do know that price gouging has happened in the past.  And many times the gouging has been tied to 'a conspiracy of men'.   And sometimes people who have the mantle of government power have been tied to the plot.

If people want claims of conspiracy to go away, calling every mention of a theory about a conspiracy "unforunded" or the people "raving nutters" isn't going to do it.  Somehow society needs to be re-worked so the past history of actual conspiracies can't happen.   About the only thing untried is open transparency.  

Besides, what's more positive...asking for open transperancy or pointing at the 'lizard aliens are controlling the world' belivers and calling 'em "raving nutters"?

Pointing conspiracies behind every tree without evidence isn't doing a very good job building credibility or preventing future conspiracies.
Keep up and I'm quitting oil exploration to go into the tinfoil hat manufacturing business! Both the lysine market and the California natural gas markets are magnitudes smaller than the world oil market. Natural gas can't be easily stored without years of planning and lead times and can't be transported without new pipelines.
  Lysine is insignificant.
The other arguement about market manipulation is people can't keep their pie-holes shut.A manipulation of $10/bbl or more on 82 million bbls/day would require the collusion of hundreds if not thousands of people. Don't you remember how fast the rumors came out about Enrons and El Paso's manipulation of the California market?

So what do you think, will Reynolds Heavy Duty foil help me pick up the vibes best, or just the generic from the grocery store? Enquiring minds want to know!

That fact that others have manipulated other things before does not in any way provide evidence that someone is manipulating something now.

All it shows is that people will manipulate markets if they can do it. I don't think any one is claiming that humans wouldn't try to manipulate the oil market if they could.

Using your logic, one could argue that everything is being manipulated because the lysine market once was. You are going to need some evidence if you want to win this argument.

You are going to need some evidence if you want to win this argument.

How should such evidence be obtained?  Obtained by me?

A very high bar you have set.  And I have no desire to play 'jump the bar to convince Jack' game.   Plus, I'm not arguing there is a conspiracy or that the theory ABOUT a conspiracy is correct.  I'm asking both sides (there is a conspiracy/no there is not) to consider the middle point of calling for open and transparent operations of both business and government.   Which is more likely to happen than theories about conspiracies to stop being made and others calling people with theories about conspiracies raving nutters.

If there was a memo that said 'On date X we shall violate law X to effect a price change' - as determined in a court of law, there would still be people who would claim that there was no price fixing.  Or the decision was politically motivated.  If the government was to use its power to obtain documentation and 'nothing was found' (becasue there WAS nothing) you'd have people saying 'see?!?!  that proves there is a conspiracy between the government and the oil companies'.   If there were docuemtns that COULD be seen as a conspiracy, but eventually declared 'not enought to take to trial' more cries of 'See?!?!?  Conspiracy!!'

Create a world where there is trust and honesty and there shall be no s