DrumBeat: November 13, 2006
Posted by threadbot on November 13, 2006 - 9:25am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oilsands threatening water reserves
A study on global warming released Monday warns that the expansion of Alberta's booming oilsands industry is threatening Canadian freshwater reserves."The case studies that we looked at, showed that in the tar sands, for instance ... this is supposed to be a big economic boom area, they're already pressing the limits of sustainability in water use," Langer said of Alberta's Athabasca River area, which is used extensively by oil sands plants.
..."They use a huge amount, they use two to four and a half barrels of water for every barrel of oil that comes out of there and they're expecting to use more but they're literally contributing to the global warming problem and boiling off their own water," Langer said.
The report predicts there isn't enough water in the Alberta river to balance the mounting demand from the petroleum industry with the need to preserve the Athabasca's resources.
Tight oil will shake up lifestyles, expert warns
North America's dependence on oil will force higher prices and lifestyle changes in years to come, a leading Canadian energy analyst warned a Denver audience in a recent speech."Ultimately we will get to the point where (oil) supply is unable to meet demand in an economically feasible way. That's the break point - something has to give," said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist for Calgary-based ARC Financial Corp.
What will give, he said, is consumer behavior that until now has been motivated by cheap and plentiful energy. Out of necessity caused by tight supplies and high prices for oil, consumers will gravitate to fuel-efficient vehicles and increasingly embrace working at home in lieu of commuting.
Chinese now visiting peak oil sites?
Aaron of peakoil.com has posted a map, apparently showing the location of visitors to peakoil.com. One surprise in Aaron's map is the number of visitors from China.
Peak oil on the agenda: Notes from the Australian Institute of Energy annual forum
James' report below contains some minor bombshells, for instance Lloyd Taylor, former Chairman of Shell NZ, claiming that even based on the USGS data, there is a 60% of peak oil by 2015.
Over the course of the next several years, the offshore jackup fleet will be changing significantly as 63 new jackups join the fleet by the end of 2009. That represents a 16% increase in the overall jackup fleet size. Of those 63 new jackups, only one rig is rated for less than 300' water depths (It is rated for 295' feet). As such, the higher specification, deeper water jackup fleet will be the main area of the fleet experiencing growth. It will be growing from its current size of 199 rigs to 261 rigs, which is a 31% increase in size over three years.
Attitude adjustment: Facing our ecological predicament
After a talk I gave last year on food and energy, one audience member remarked that it seemed to him that we face challenges so daunting that little can be done to stop a worldwide collapse of civilization. "What is the point in trying?" he seemed to be asking. As I prepare for guest lectures on peak oil and the consequences of overshoot at a local college this week, I'm asking myself: Is that person's attitude really all that unreasonable?
Greenpeace co-founder warms to nuclear energy
Patrick Moore, who left Greenpeace 20 years ago, said he wants to build grassroots support among mayors and state lawmakers, union members and chamber of commerce leaders....His message is this: "Nuclear energy is safe, reliable, cost-effective, and reduces air pollution and greenhouse gas emission."
LONDON - Iran maintains a costly nuclear program while spending billions to subsidize everything from apartments to gasoline. Russia defies international demands to give up a monopoly on oil pipelines to Europe. Venezuela sends aid to countries around the globe in an effort to expand its influence.What all three have in common are treasuries swollen by the high price of oil.
US ethanol boom changes landscape for corn producers
NEW YORK - A boom in ethanol use in gasoline in the United States has led to a surge in corn prices and changed the landscape for farmers now producing for both food and energy markets.
Canada faces U.N. grilling over Kyoto abandonment
OTTAWA - This is likely to be another rough week for embattled Canadian Environment Minister Rona Ambrose, who must explain to a summit on global warming why Ottawa has effectively abandoned the Kyoto protocol on climate change.
John Hofmeister, President of Shell Oil Company, kicked off the first half of the conference speaking about an indefinite supply of energy available in affordable ways, but not without challenges. ....Challenging part of this argument, Matthew Simmons, Chairman of Simmons & Company International, led the second half, highlighting that much of the world's usable energy resources are too mature and are now in production decline.
Corruption, insecurity threaten Sudan peace deal
Corruption, insecurity and bad faith on the part of the Khartoum government in sharing oil profits is slowing Southern Sudan's recovery from years of civil war.
Poland threatens to veto EU-Russia pact
Pipeline politics once again dominate EU-Russia relations as Poland threatens to veto the renewal of a 1997 agreement with Russia.
Ex-energy secretary sees further rise in oil prices
The long-term trend as far as oil prices are concerned is that they will rule at the present levels or may possibly go higher.Former US energy secretary Spencer Abraham told The Peninsula yesterday that he doubted prices would fall given the current levels of demand which was also growing at a rapid pace.
Families feel the squeeze: Higher fuel, health costs hit home
Tanzania: Port congestion may push up fuel prices
RECENT congestion by seven tankers carrying over 210,000 tonnes of petroleum at the Dar es Salaam Port threatens to push up fuel prices by an average of 20/- per litre, due to accumulated demurrage charges.
China tax breaks in works for heavy oil
China, the world's biggest energy user after the United States, is drafting policies such as tax incentives and discounts to boost exploration for heavy oil resources such as oil sands and oil shale to meet demand.
Not the Revolution, But an Opening
King Coal and Big Oil continue to use their power and vast wealth to keep us locked into a reliance on earth-heating fossil fuels that, if not quickly reversed, will lead to a steady escalation of catastrophic climate events and a breakdown of an already-stressed ecosystem.
Venezuelans Square Off Over Race, Oil and a Populist Political Slogan
CARACAS, Venezuela — “Mi negra” is an almost untranslatable term of endearment used in rich and poor households in this racially mixed country, with a definition somewhere between “My dark-skinned woman” and “My dear.”Now, it also has another meaning. In a reference to the color of oil, President Hugo Chávez’s main electoral challenger chose Mi Negra as the name of a banking card he proposes that would transfer oil revenues directly to the poor.
GOP pressed on offshore drilling limits
WASHINGTON - The Democrats' return to power is increasing pressure on House Republican leaders to accept a limited expansion of offshore oil and gas drilling.Supporters of such exploration say the next Congress, with Democrats in control come January, probably will not tamper with the long-standing drilling bans that have protected most coastal waters for a quarter-century.
Russia rejects expansion of Chevron oil link
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's Energy Ministry has rejected a plan to expand the capacity of a Chevron-led oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea, Kommersant business daily said on Monday....The consortium wants to almost double capacity from 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.3 million bpd, but has faced opposition from Russia, which fears the pipeline -- the only private crude oil link on its territory -- could increase tanker traffic at the already congested Bosphorus straits in Turkey.
Anadarko selling Gulf of Mexico oilfield
HOUSTON - Anadarko Petroleum Corp., one of the nation's largest independent energy exploration and production companies, is selling its Genghis Khan discovery in the Gulf of Mexico for $1.35 billion to owners of the adjacent Shenzi field.
Hopefully it will appear later today on a free site. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette might have it.
Yes that is hilarious. Doing quick check, the us produced last year, crude + condensate, 1.89 billion barrels of oil. In our peak year, 1970, we produced 3.52 billion barrels of crude + condensate. That was 5.178 mb/d and 9.637 mb/d respectfully.
Ron Patterson
There is no link with the "King Coal and Big Oil ..." quote block.
Do we have any nicknames for solar and nuclear?
Ruddy Kilowatt? Sun Juice?
and nuclear?
Night Light? Mc-squared?
You can even name the 'Big Solar', the world's top 10 solar cell producers (BP, Shell, a couple of Japanese firms).
It's hard to talk about a 'wind top 10'.
Do we mean turbine companies? That's GE and Vesta and a Spanish co (whose name escapes me).
Do we mean wind operators? Then that is the Danish utility, probably the German ones (E.On, RWE?), the Spanish one (Iberdrola). In the US I think it is mostly independent operations (to capture the tax reliefs).
The reality is wind is just an enabling technology.
The 'Big Coal' and 'Big Oil' represent companies with locks on significant deposits of energy. No wind company would have that lock-- wind is free and omnipresent.
Also on page C1, in another article, Soft Energy Prices May Be Costly Later, is a quote from T. Boone Pickens:
Finally, a free article from today's WSJ:
Renewable Fuels May Provide 25% of U.S. Energy by 2025
Ron Patterson
The chart would be about right, in millions of barrels per day, if you took the zero off numbers to the left of the chart.
Ron Patterson
Ron Patterson
Corrections & Amplifications
I watched The End of Suburbia a year ago and never understood the magnitude of these developments. Madison, Wisc has some home development going on, but not to the extent of the exurbs in Illinois. I believe low income neighborhoods will last longer than these cookie-cutter neighborhoods on the downward slope of the curve because at least low income neighborhoods have walkable streets and neighbors who know each other.
I took my dog for a walk while in the exurb and after fifteen minutes I was getting nervous about being able to relocate my friend's house. The development consists of contrived "communities" that are made up of 5-10 blocks worth of houses, with each grouping ("community") given a name like "Arbor" or "Lake Pointe" (should be called "Stormwater Runoff Holding Pond Pointe"). So little did I know I wandered out of the "Arbor" community and into the "Lake Pointe" community. All of the streets were named "Lake Pointe Circle", "Lake Pointe Drive", "Lake Pointe Court", "Lake Pointe Way", etc. And the only directional indicator I had was the humming high voltage power line running over the development toward Chicago. Luckily I encountered a person outside (the only one I saw outside of a car or a house over the course of an hour) and asked her for directions back to my friend's house on "Arbor-something". She said "Oh, you need to get back to the Arbor community which is over that way. I set my internal compass using the power line as a reference and I was on my way.
Upon leaving the development yesterday to get back to Madison I saw an intersection with 40+ signs touting the even newer developments chewing into what used to be farmland. One sign offered a waterpark in the development, but my favorite was the sign that said "Basement Included". Wow, what a deal!
Tom A-B
Las Vegas closing in on full house
Or water...or oil...or AC...
The materials tend to need a retread every 25-30 years, roofs etc. That's when you find out if the builders cut corners (the blogs are full of people talking about how their <insert name of major American or British housebuilder> new home turned out to be full of defects.
Insulation is often lacking, and there is a dearth of energy savings design features such as heat pumps, etc.
(here in the UK we build modern houses with smaller windows than previous generations, despite the introduction of the steel joist, insulative glass etc. which makes big windows practicable. The result is you need artificial light even in broad daylight and you lose the solar insolation value in winter).
Of course there are the transport issues: 1 car per adult in household. And you can't even buy a quart of milk without driving for it (walk? what me walk?).
There is an absence of trees, often, and not even a plan to grow them. Trees are a big factor in reducing air conditioning bills.
Someone has to plough the snow, and pickup the garbage: the costs of that are proportional to lot frontage (inversely proportional to density).
Big square footage means big repair bills, and usually lots of waste space. It's not like most of us have families with 5 kids, and our grandparents, any more.
I have a feeling we are going to come to regret this sprawl. Just as the old fashioned post war suburb or pre WWII suburb is coming into recognition, (there are usually amenities fairly close), the exurbs are going to turn into a liability.
When I ventured out of the pediastrianized area (by mass transit, of course) , most of the cars I saw made my Prius seem bloated. I only saw two SUVs the whole week, which, obviously, looked totally weird and out of place.
The week was an incredibly pleasnt experience in a big,crowded city. If only American cities could be half that civilized.
Perhaps Spain has exurbia, too, but it was nice to spend a week in fantasy land, a world that in America we can only dream about.
I have seen the past and we must learn to recreate it.
This past week, I attended a meeting in our local community on Boulder county (Colorado) relocalization. The speaker pointed out that all the land currently under agriculture in Boulder County could only provide enough food for 20,000 residents. Obviously, further suburbanization or exurbanization is not going to increase that number.
P.S. Yes, I feel a certain degree of guilt for making the airplane trip but feel that the trip was mandatory since I was attending my daughter's wedding. Now as to why my daughter felt the need to have her wedding overseas, that is another story.
It will be just as bad as Las Vegas.
I've always found it ironic that surburban developments are named for the more natural use of the land that is destroyed by the deveopment.
Trees were undoubtedly destroyed to make way for the "Arbor" community.
Toxic run-off from asphalt and lawn chemicals is slowly destroying the Lake of "Lake Pointe".
"Deer Run" is a neighborhood were deers used to run.
"Hoffman Farm" was destroyed in order to build another exurban neighborhood.
Stands of Oak trees were destroyed to make way for "Oak Grove"
Etc., etc.
I wonder if any other readers of TOD discovered PO as I did- as a result of an earlier distaste for the suburbs. I grew up a "prisoner" of a typical suburban cul-de-sac outside of Columbus, Ohio. We were so bored growing up there that my friends and I resorted to petty vandalism for entertainment. I read Kunstler's early books, "Crabgrass Frontier" and other anti-surburban stuff years before I became aware of Peak Oil and discovered it as the anti-suburban movement became more and more aware of PO.
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1963236.ece
What, me worry?
How predictable. Obviously that's what we will be doing about the problem: watching and ranting how things were "out of control". If we really wanted to tackle the problem we would be having prohibitive carbon taxes and wide-scale international program for nuclear power expansion by now. Instead we are having that ridiculous Kyoto, which everyone knew was dead born and wide-scale stupidity expansion.
I agree.
Kyoto focuses on Global Flatulence at a time when the Refrigerator and Cupboards (fossile fuels) are now emptying faster than they can be replaced.
As the Empty Belly Trend (declining available energy sources) gets worse, what will the desperate do - worry about their economic flatulence (emissions) or worry about starving and freezing?
Koyoto is busy work for politicians and green peace-religious crusaders. It makes people feel they are doing something constructive but in reality they are distracting the world from the more pressing and immediate problem of Peak Energy.
Wind turbines, our best hope as post-Peak NG bites, were helped along by Kyoto.
Kyoto may fail in it's stated goals BUT the effect has still been strongly positive for those nations that signed. The US will suffer for not having signed.
Best Hopes,
Alan
But I wonder what a difference it would have made if the Kyoto participants were as forceful and energized, but focused on the much more immediate danger Peak Energy.
The truth is we know far too little about our atmosphere and the various cycles regulating it to make accurate predictions and sound decisions about the future of Global Warming/Cooling.
We know far more about our lack of Energy sources and the effects of declining energy. What we can do about either is another question, but focusing on flatulence is not the answer IMHO.
We are at the "preponderance of the evidence" (standard of proof for civil cases) that human carbon dioxide and other GHG emissions will cause more economic (not to mention ecological, social, humanitarian) harm than the economic costs to slow down and limit the looming disaster.
Of course, too many "conservatives" demand the standard of proof that applies to criminal cases, "Beyond a Reasonable Doubt".
I choke when I use "conservatives" in that context.
Alan
A Republican from age 19 to age 52.
I still say we know too little about our atmosphere and the various cycles to act intelligently and effectively.
To act to curb emissions is fine, but I think Mother Nature (Peak Energy) is going to more effective than any efforts by the critter we call Homo Sap.
We can't manage a deer herd or predict the weather with great accuracy beyond 24 hours. I have no confidence our politicians and special interest groups will do a better job with the climate.
Homo saps CAN do it, we just screw up far too often.
40% of MWh from new USA generation installed in 2006 (this year) will come from wind turbines and another 4% from other renewables. (Quote that I checked out from other TODer)
Not "perfect" but not bad either.
I have my path that is good for both PO & GW.
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
Best Hopes,
Alan