In 1945 Switzerland used only 27,000 tonnes of oil.

Today, more homes have been away from tram lines, people are less interested in bicycling and more freight moves by truck (that will change with rail improvements).  Still many in Switzerland could move to electrical transportation.

Do you have data on how homes are heated ?  What % gas, oil, geothermal, simple electrical resistance ?  Is there a move to geothermal heat pumps ?

Is Switzerland likely to build a new nuclear reactor anytime soon ?  And is the Grande dix hydro project likely to be fixed ?

Thanks very much for the earlier information & links :-)

Best Hopes,

Alan

And that is before we take into account unfunded pension liabilities, as you mention. They are not included in the debt numbers.

When this fraud comes to an end...you will not get a pension. Or you will work until you are 75. As simple as that. Because the alternative (i.e. re-distribution of wealth) will require a modern version of storming the Bastille. Today the top 1% of the US population owns 38% of ALL financial assets (bank deposits included). The top 2% owns 55%. Truly "E Pluribus Unum".

When Robert Maxwell started "borrowing" from the company's pension fund to pay for short term expansion, other companies then realised what a "great" idea that would be, and effectively petitioned the UK government to change the rules on pension funds. Some of these rule relaxations included not having to pay into the fund if it was in surplus (meaning that all contributions from the workforce were not being used for their intended purpose). Of course, the stock market changes mean that a fund need not be in surplus all the time, particularly if the company is not expanding the workforce.

The problem now is that the funds have been so pillaged in the last 10-15 years that now, those making contributions are now paying for those retired, rather than paying for their own retirement.

The (slight) rise in life expectancy in the last 10 years is not the real reason for the shortfalls - it is the actions of both this and the previous government.

The giant Ponzi scheme might actually work, if there were infinite world resources and the size of the "pie" of available resources kept growing year after year. Then investments might grow rapidly enough to support the pension plans. In the case of government pension plans, the larger resouce pie, when divided among both the retired and those yet to retire, might have enough for all.

If, in fact, we are dealing with finite resources, we know that the size of the resource pie will start to shrink at some time, due to peak oil, peak gas, peak water, depleting soil, etc. With a shrinking pie, it is highly unlikely that investments will continue to grow in real terms- although perhaps with rapid inflation they may give the impression of growth. Government pension plans will be faced with dividing up a smaller pie among the retired and those yet to retire.

With a smaller resource pie, I expect that pension plans will run into problems, even when they now appear to be adequately funded. These problems could include investments plagued by bankruptcies, high inflation so the benefits are worth very little, or possibly complete failure of the monetary system.

Do you suppose Hubbert's Curve qualifieds as a "formula-based model which make predictions bbase on extrapolating past results?"  I think it might.

Cheers!

The CNN story I liked the best concerned Virginia, which had finally got around to changing its various blue laws - Sunday closing rules - a couple of years ago, and since the rules were so riddled with exemptions and special clauses over the years, the Virginia lawmakers actually ended up putting back into force a law that guaranteed workers one day a week free for religious worship, and also (from memory) forbid forcing workers to work 'consecutively' - that is, you couldn't force someone to work a shift from 6pm to midnight, and then have them work midnight to 6am.

After noticing what a disaster this would be for the employers in Virginia (care to imagine which?), which only came to light after the end of the legislative period, the legislature called back for a special session to fix these 'problems' - and the CNN article was happy to point out how responsive the legislature was to the needs of employers. Yes, even in the homne of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson, some things are more important than one day a week where an employer can not fire someone due to their exercise of religious beliefs/devotion.

And this from a liberal media source.

I won't be surprised if the article about the drivers pops up briefly, or if the potential action has some interesting news angle, it won't get more attention. The game is about news management, not news censorship, after all - and who do you think pays CNN's bills? CNN's customers are not its viewers, after all.

What'll really toast your noodle is seeing pizza delivery people driving around in SUV's and mustangs and other low mpg vehicles.

I've always wondered if the economics worked out on pizza delivery people, though.  Most of them only consider the upfront cost of the gas they use, but most of them drive their own vehicles and the wear and tear and depreciation on those vehicles is probably a greater cost than that of the gas.  So when I see some young pizza delivery person in a nice car (probably bought by their parents), I always wonder if they're just eating into the value of the car and not actually making a true (sustainable) net profit.

I thought much the same when I read the article too.  No mention of Peakoil, GW, and the Law of Diminishing Returns.  "Consumer Activism" is a code word for: the delusional pursuit by the exercise of political power to continue the Iron Triangle.  Everytime I see a SUV soccer mom with a carload of kids, and they are everywhere in my Asphalt Wonderland--I imagine it speeding off the cliff into Olduvai Gorge.  This happy and gay holiday shopping season does the MSM promote the fact that thousands in Russia, including many in Moscow, are now without fuel and electricity?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

It says the analysis by Associated Press ... rile the sleepy herd with conspiracies and scape goats.  It's a nice simple answer, it's easier than real analysis and actual thinking, and it sells papers to angry people in the area.

Here's another quote from the article:

The global economy may not be able to provide the goods and services it once did, but local economies and neighborhoods are capable of filling the gaps.

So, local economies are going to fill "gaps"?  Here's one gap - clothing, since most of it is imported.  Let's see, the locals are going to produce crops that they will then weave into cloth and someone will take this cloth and make clothing.  Really?  I hate to sound cynical but that is unlikely to happen.  Well, the US could start to reopen the closed mills but, unfortunately, the equipment is long gone overseas and few people would know how to run a mill anyway.  Further, in a shrinking economy, who is going to finance such a mill in the first place?

The same arguement can be made for any number of other gaps.  The reality is that locals will have a hard time just supplementing their food supplies without trying to fill any additional gaps.

WallyWorld could juice their sales by offering a XMAS stocking filled with lumps of coal and an attached Peakoil CD or Book.  They need to take advantage of this unique, high profit marketing opportunity now before costs rise--because later: it will only be offered at exclusive outlets such as Tiffanys and other high-end jewellers.

Sarcasm or future truth?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Ah yes, the solution to "too many weapons" and large "defence" expenditures is always more weapons and greater expenditures.

The question the human population of this planet should be asking is "Where's the nuclear disarmament?"

(I was going to not make that question specific to nuclear weapons but I thought we might as well take this one step at a time.  Vast "conventional" military arsenals are a large threat as well but not quite a cataclysmic threat.)

They systems are old rusting junk that never worked that well to begin with, and needs to be replaced.  Nuclear weapons are just like any other machine they get old and wear out.

If I'm not a typical American, I guess I owe it to my dad.  He is an agronomist who specializes in international agriculture, and thanks to him, I spent parts of my childhood overseas.  He always tried very hard to keep me from growing up to be an "Ugly American."  :)

Bush is well on his way to destroying the Army, and to some extent the Marines.  However, the Air Force and Navy are still relatively intact.  I wonder if we might see some kind of air strikes on Iran, followed by a naval blockade of Iran, which would provide the excuse for concentrating even greater permanent US Naval power in the Persian Gulf.  If US can't control the oil fields on the ground, the US could still control the shipping lanes out of the Gulf.

I wonder what Cheney said to the Saudis?

Suez is regarded as the 'marker bed' for the end of the British Empire. If you are looking for a date when the sun finally set, Suez serves that purpose.

British foreign policy since then has always been governed by a desire 'not to create another suez'.

Leastways until the juvenile Blair got his hands on the levers of power. Iraq was the consequence.

An interesting aside: When asked by the PM if British troops could make it to Cairo, the Head of the Imperial General Staff said: 'Yes, of course. But what do you want us to do when we get there?'.

Shame the same question was not asked about Bagdad.

Several of us have been discussing proration and other events and their effect on Texas and American production leading up to a peak - relative to possibly similar circumstances in Saudi Arabia.

There seemed to be a consensus that proration ended in 1972. Simmons on pg.44 states that "Proration remained in effect until the end of the 1960's*. As a beneficial unintended consequence, proration also extended the lifespan of many US giant oilfields, which would have depleted far faster had they  not been artificially choked back.
   Proration was the only major US oil policy until 1959..."

In 1959 the MOIP policy Mandatory Oil Import Control Program was imposed by Eisenhower. As Tertzakian points out on page 72, prior to this, by 1958, 40% of US domestic production was shut in to combat cheap imports.

Do we really know what the production profile of the US would look like without these various controls? Would it be much different. My guess is not really. Not in the 1960's, at least. But I'm not an expert. Others may disagree.

I haven't checked 1956, but from the EIA's monthly numbers circa June 1967, I can't see a huge bump in domestic production. When measured against annual global production surges in the 1960's, it seems hardly a blip.

* (my note) - the "end of the 1960's" is vague, but it is also not 1972. There are no notes attached to Chapter 3 in 'Twilight.' There isn't even an entry for chapter 3 in the back of the book.

The Saudis would do anything to stop Iran from awakening the Arab populations as to the crappiness of their kings and pro-US dictators.  Saudi bankrolled Saddam Hussein's war on Iran in the past.  It can't help but view the Sunni insurgency, even the neo-Baathists, as its new first line of defense against Iran.

Just in time for James Baker, official henchman of the George H. W. Bush/Saudi/Carlyle Group, to arrive to revamp our Iraq policy.

Baker is going to try to get Junior to switch sides in Iraq.  We will withdraw in a fashion that favors the Sunni insurgents, who in turn will get big new gifts from Saudi.  We will abandon Anbar province first, then flee Baghdad to what appears to be a rapidly evolving Sunni noose.  The true Iranian puppet in Iraq, SCIRI, will flee and set up shop downriver, while Moqtada al-Sadr's 2 million supporters in the Baghdad slums will be sacrificed.

Then the Saudi proxies and the Iranian proxies will have the 2nd Iran-Iraq War while we shrug our shoulders and blame "those crazy Moslems".  We might even figure to come out ahead on this tragedy, as Saudi and Iran will have to pump more oil to raise more cash as the war spreads.  But we will make damn sure that Saudi doesn't lose.

Maybe on the market in 5 years?  Give me a break!

If reality continues to trickle down through the grid of denial put forth by the so-called "Free Market" superstition, then we will be prepared to respond to PO and GW just about a century after we are extinct.

Well, at least I've made clear that I do not accept the free marketeer assumptions, but I myself am a micro-eco-entrepreneur. I work for a living in a Fascist "free market" that seems to me to oppose free thinking, entrepreneurship, and reality-based planning.  The "free market" plans are all oriented to feed more dollars to fewer people as far as I can tell.

I'm not likely to persuade anyone to think like me -- especially if you have convictions that are as strongly held as mine are.  But I do think that the mantra "the free market is working" is stretching things pretty far.

But I seriously question whether online shopping conserves energy, and whether it will be sustainable in the post-carbon age.  

If you are buying something downloadable, like a song, movie, or software, then it probably does save energy.  But physical goods must be packed and shipped.  They are usually wrapped in plastic and Styrofoam, boxed in cardboard, then delivered in a big ol' truck that likely uses more energy than your car, and certainly causes more wear and tear on the roads.  (Indeed, the latter is becoming a serious problem for public works departments.  EBay means truck traffic going door-to-door, instead of from warehouse to shopping mall, and it's causing traffic and wear problems that weren't anticipated when the road system was built.)  

And the Internet itself takes more energy than most people seem to realize.  The large server farms that power sites like Amazon and eBay often have their own (gas-fired) power plants, and use the energy of a small city.  

I posted this article a few days ago:

The UK is heading towards energy shortages because of companies' burgeoning use of IT, according to new research yesterday that called on companies to install lower-power technology to save money and the planet.

An average UK data-centre uses more power in a year than the city of Leicester, according to the Power and Cooling Survey 2006 from analyst firm BroadGroup. Such demand will severely test the operational viability of UK data centres by 2010.

I suspect the future of retail is going to look more like the past.  Shopping districts that centralize delivery, perhaps with public transportation for shoppers to get there.  And the kind of delivery system that rural people have even now.  The package is delivered to the Sears office in town, or to the post office, and you go down and get it when you happen to be in town.  Or your neighbor will fetch it for you, if they're making a trip into town before you are.

I'd guess you're right that higher prices will push consumption lower(*).  That's what happened in the late 70's.  But we are kind in the dark about how soon and how fast change will come upon us.

* - not sure if China ranks as "free market" these days, but they seem to be facing very similar choices, as they price energy to maintain growth.

Should I check every other one of your "quotes" in the same way or have they all been similarly doctored to support your viewpoint?

In fact, let's do that.

Your second quote states that people are shopping online. With the population spread out inefficiently in suburbs, you do realize that a product must be delivered if purchased online? And that delivery will use vehicles that are fossil fuel consumers, and very inefficient ones at that. But then, in your own referenced article, we find this gem about online shopping:

"Part of the overall pessimism toward online shopping includes skepticism of the product fulfillment process. Fifteen percent of consumers said they received orders late last year. Returns are also a sore spot with half of consumers finding the process of returning items to be a hassle and 27 percent say they prefer not to buy online altogether because of the prospect of dealing with returns. Consumers also rated their trust in major shipping providers such as FedEx and UPS."

Clearly the entire online ordering, delivery, and customer service situation must improve by leaps and bounds before it is going to replace the local mall. You deliberately selectively quoted and ignored many other outstanding issues.

In the rail shipping article we find this gem:

"AAR director of editorial services Tom White told Logistics Management that railroad traffic levels have maintained and continued to make monthly increases, although the rate of increases have gone down compared to past years.

Intermodal, said White, has led the railroad industry's growth for the past 25 years. But he noted that there was a bit of a slowdown in intermodal growth in October. This is especially true when compared to the intermodal growth that occurred in September, which was up 5.4 percent from September 2005 at 987,903 units shipped.

"Intermodal continues to lead the way, and we think that will continue to be the case long-term," said White. "And overall traffic levels are remaining strong this year, which is our fourth straight record year.""

You apparently ignore comments by experts like Alan that our rail system is very close to capacity and cannot sustain huge amounts of additional growth without massive levels of investment. Where is that investment? Is the lack of long term investment going to slow adoption of rail? You appear to dismiss such fundamental concerns without a thought.

And your last article, about MIT researchers, gives me a "page not found" error when I click on the link. When I go to the AZoM home page, there are a number of links to MIT related topics but none about super efficient mini gasoline engines. When I use AZoM's search facility, I am unable to find your quoted article. However, being stubborn, I found the original article here. What you don't mention is that these amazing engines only provide a 30% increase in fuel efficiency. In other words, a 30mpg small car might get 39mpg. Plus these engines use fossil fuels and ethanol both, where ethanol has clearly been shown to have serious problems scaling up. This isn't a fix; it's a stopgap.

You use these articles to paint a picture that all is well and with just a few small changes we can continue to live as we do right now. You fail to see the bigger picture entirely.

You are well aware of the astronomical difference between Texas well numbers and those in Saudi Arabia. Look at the reported production makeup for Daiqing. Same thing. What will be the case when Saudi has 500,000 wells?

Those who could afford to flee the city did so.  The ones left were the ones who couldn't afford to leave.

But it is reversible, and it's happening in many once-poor neighborhoods.  "Gentrification."  Usually it's young couples who move in first, because they aren't as concerned about safety as families or old people.  But once they move in and prices start rising, you do get others moving in.  Reurbanization is a trend now, and one that is likely to increase, as older people move back to the cities they once fled.  With the nests empty, they no longer need a big house or a yard.  They want to be near theaters, shops, sports events, and doctors.  And they may no longer be comfortable driving long distances, if at all.

I was at the Grand Opening of the Hudson-Bergen extension that went through the old NY Central tunnel (long story).  Ridership was not much above 10,000 then (from memory).  So TOD has REALLY taken off !  :-)

Too bad that idiot Warrington (worst boss ever for Amtrak as well) is pushing diesel commuter to the Meadowlands and not extending H-B Light Rail there.

Congrats !

Best Hopes for replicating networks like this across the nation !

Alan

Buy euro- or Swiss-franc-based CDs, or continue to buy more gold and silver.

I'm thinking both, since I think the dollar has big problems ahead.