DrumBeat: November 3, 2006
Posted by threadbot on November 3, 2006 - 9:20am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Documentary Film Turns Black Gold Into Black Death: a review of A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash
Dr. David Goodstein, a physics professor at the California Institute of Technology, says: "A graduate student asked me 'will my children ever ride in an airplane?' It was a gripping question. The answer could well be no." Matthew David Savinar, of www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, says that only the mega-rich 0.1% might be able to travel by cars and planes.Dr. Goodstein says that it would take 10,000 new nuclear power stations to replace the energy created by oil but even then "the world's uranium would be gone in one or two decades".
VerSun to unveil renewable energy technology
U.S. company VeraSun Energy on Friday will announce a new technology that yields both ethanol and biodiesel from corn, the Financial Times said.
IEA: Nuclear power is 'essential tool'
The International Energy Agency will urge countries around the world to accelerate construction of nuclear power plants next week, the IEA's chief economist told the Financial Times in an interview.
Two contradictory dogmas of the anti-auto cult are that consumption of fossil fuels will continue to increase just as rapidly as it has in the past and that fossil fuels will become increasingly expensive because we have passed the peak of peak oil.
This article is interesting because it's running in the rightwing media: The Next Added 100 Million Americans, Part 6
We can deny, bury our heads or pretend it’s not coming, but the end of this Age of Oil threatens our civilization. It’s coming as surely as the tsunami that hit Sri Lanka; it’s as certain as Katrina hitting New Orleans.
Shell to pump $12.8b into oilsands
Exxon gives $1.3 million to carbon dioxide project: Donation signals effort to bolster its image on greenhouse gases
A healthy scepticism can save the world
Fast-tracking new technologies and a truly global carbon trading system are the best responses to the Stern report
Russia Reacts Angrily to U.S. Warnings over Baltic Sea Gas Pipeline
...the oil industry has come out swinging against Peak Oil theorists, those individuals who think the world is about to hit a peak in terms of fossil fuel production. Apparently all the talk was getting a bit out of hand, so the industry has decided to talk back. Abdallah Jum'aah, the CEO of the big Saudi state-owned firm Aramco, recently stated publicly that the world has 4.5 trillion barrels of fossil fuel reserves, enough to power the globe at current levels of consumption for another 140 years. The CEO of Exxon Mobil Australia told an industry conference in Adelaide that "the end of oil is nowhere in sight," while here in Canada Clive Mather, CEO of Shell Canada, has pointed out that methane hydrates are so abundant on earth as to make the question of fossil fuel depletion moot.
China Forecasts 18 Million Tonnes Biofuel Use by 2010
Israel pushes to reduce oil dependency
India: No more cheap gas
‘No more cheap gas,’ says the Oil Ministry. That’s not very good news for power companies.
Bulgaria warns of major electricity export cuts
Bulgaria plans to slash its electricity exports next year due to the EU-required closure of two nuclear units, which could threaten energy stability in the Balkans, officials said Thursday.
Australia: Power, fuel bills to jump in greenhouse remedies
Consumers need to brace themselves for increases of 30 to 40 per cent in their electricity bills and higher petrol prices if they want governments to solve climate change and business to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
China aims to increase its clout in Africa Unsaid goal: Redraw world's strategic map
U.K.: Average gas bill 'up by a third'
U.K.: BBC's Panorama is covering the natural gas crisis:
Sunday 5 November, 10:15 pm - 10:55 pmSoaring gas bills are pushing up the cost of heating our homes - and forcing up electricity bills too. For decades Britain's relied on its own gas supplies, but now they're running out fast. Steve Bradshaw investigates why prices are rising - and takes a four thousand mile journey down the pipeline from Britain to Asia to discover if we can avoid a cold, dark and expensive future.
Venezuela to sell D.C. oil at discount
Venezuela will provide heavily discounted heating oil to about 37,000 low-income families in Maryland, Virginia and the District this winter, Caracas' envoy to the United States said yesterday.
Saudis, U.S. Oil Execs May Jack Prices Up After Election
Warning from Ex-White House & Hill Spokesman Bob Weiner
WASHINGTON - Gas prices that have plummeted 80 cents in the past three months are helping the economy, but the cost could shoot right back up when the Saudis lower production after the election, warns Robert Weiner, a former senior public affairs director in the Clinton White House, former spokesman for the U.S. House Government Operations Committee, and now president of a Washington issue strategies group.Weiner along with Richard Bangs, a Senior Policy Analyst at Robert Weiner Associates, point out that Bob Woodward has reported that Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, told President Bush two years ago, "The Saudis would cut oil prices to ensure a strong economy for election day." Weiner and Bangs believe, "this prediction has come to fruition."
China needs 70 very large crude ships
SHENZHEN: China needs at least 70 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to be self-sufficient in transporting its own crude oil, far more than it now controls, the head of the country's top shipping group said yesterday.
Fuel efficiency: The diesel version gets around 80 miles to the gallon.
Safety standards: equal to Mercedes E-type; you're actually sitting in a superstrong carbon fiber egg, sort of formula-1 monococ. It is not as vulnerable as it looks.
They are also launching an EV version
http://www.smart.com/-snm-0157694444-1157920986-0000029233-0000015043-1162561619-enm-is-bin/INTERSHO P.enfinity/WFS/mpc-uk-content-Site/en_UK/-/GBP/SVCPresentationPipeline-Start?Page=issite%3a%2f%2fmpc -uk-Site%2fmpc-uk%2ecom%2fRootFolder%2fsmart%2fsmart_news%2fsmart_news_2006%2fsmartEV_news%2epage
Westexas, what do you think of http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/25/13020/044#more
The issue this raises with me is if we are at peak right now, is it a possibility that the world will be able to stretch the so-called "bumpy plateau" until, let's say, 2012?
BTW, for all non-PO-doomers, the Stern report as well as this should turn every single one of you into a doomer http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/11/02/seafood.crisis.ap/index.html
Maybe PO will prevent commercial fisheries to accomplish this.
And last but not least, my wife finally got it yesterday: "O MY GOD, WE HAVE TO MOVE!" (We live in Holland)
Apologies for the long links
I was enjoying the good life in Venice when this story was posted, and I think I made one short comment when I signed on briefly in Venice, while my my wife was checking her e-mails at an Internet site.
IMO, insufficient attention was given to the decline of the super giants, which is also my beef with the Mega Projects analysis.
Again, let's consider Texas. The East Texas Field, which was found around 1930, was showing rising production in the 10 years prior to the Texas peak in 1972. How would a "Mega Projects" analysis of Texas in the early Seventies treated the East Texas Field?
In fact, Hubbert, as we know, correctly predicted the time frame for the overall Lower 48 peak. As I noted on the Simmons thread, Deffeyes has considerably better data to work with than Hubbert had in 1956. IMO, the HL model, combined the near certain simultaneous decline of all four current super giants, is an overwhelming case for "Yes, we have peaked."
CNBC said that the UAE has announced that they are diversifying their assets out of dollars, and especially into gold.
The Future Oceans - Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour
Here are some shocking figures from this report.
In the first figure almost a straight line can be drawn through the blue dots. The big question is how fast will the sea level rise to the new equilibrium? One meter until 2100 sounds too optimistic for me, when the rise in the recent years was higher than the models predicted.
I'm a believer in Global Warming, but the first chart seems to be suggesting is that the oceans are going to rise ~50 meters in the next 100 years.
You're talking ~50cm changes every year between now and then!
Meanwhile actual Satellite measurements show a rise of ~4cm over the past 12 years (1993-2005). ~.3cm/year
I DO understand about positive feedback systems, but what kind of acceleration do you see???
Thanks,
Garth
In the last big interglacial meltdown it went 5m/century, 5cm/year. Should that get underway there will be panicked migration from coasts.
take a look on page 33/34 of the referred document. It says:
The end of the last ice age provides information about the possible rate of sea-level rise. At that time the global average temperature rose by around 4-7 °C, an amount that is also reached in pessimistic scenarios for the future. But the warming at that time took around 5000 years, which is much slower than the present trend. From 15,000 to 10,000 years ago sea level rose by around 80m, an average of 1.6m per century (Fairbanks, 1989). During some intervals rates of up to 5m per century were reached (Clark et al., 2004).
These values cannot simply be applied to today's situation. The ice sheets at that time were considerably larger, which means the melting regions on the margins were greater, allowing a greater flow of meltwater. In addition, due to Earth's orbital cycles around the sun (Milankovich cycles; Ruddiman, 2000), the incoming solar radiation at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere was considerably stronger, a situation that cannot be directly compared with the global increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. These two factors suggest higher melting rates at the end of the ice age than during the present warming. The much slower warming at that time, by contrast, would suggest lower melting rates. In fact, the disappearance of ice sheets at that time for the most part kept pace with the gradual climate warming, so the assumption that ice masses would have melted significantly more rapidly with faster warming
is quite plausible.
Two conclusions can be drawn from this discussion. Firstly, rates for sea-level rise of up to 5m per century are documented, and these probably do not represent an upper limit. Thus climate history shows that a much more rapid rise than that expected by the IPCC for the 21st century is possible. Secondly, such rates of sea-level rise suggest dynamic melting processes of the ice sheets, also taking account of the conditions at the end of the last ice age. This means there can be not only a simple melting through contact with warmer air, but also an accelerated flow of
the ice into the sea.
= ----------------------------------------------- =
In daily live we are familiar with the last type of melting, when we clean up ice from our freezer. I'm aware that the boundaries of the cases are different, but it explains well why we can expect higher melting levels. Already are some glaciers increasing their flow speed.
Bart
All I know is if the oceans start rising 50cm/year, I expect all hell to break loose. Even 5cm/year would be extremely drastic.
Interesting times.
Garth
Twice the fuel economy of the Smart(the version to actually be imported), and twice the passenger capacity too! The Smart just perpetuates the belief that you have to sacrifice functionality for fuel economy.
There is, of course, no evidence of this (as Robert would insist) except the coincidences, but how would anyone gain evidence of this short of a confession from the Saudis, an Oil CEO, or someone in BushCo. Those seeking evidence are at a disadvantage.
The only proof I will require is what happens to prices in the later part of the 4th QTR no matter what the "cover story" will be to explain the increase.
I am a 36 year old auto mechanic (doomer) living in central MO with a family and I can earn about $30,000 a year(now). I know nothing about the oil service industry (I just study production data and TOD) But I was wondering If I'm missing this boat(no pun).
My other option, in light of ELP, is to work in a local cheese factory on their machines. This to me seems quite sustainable because there will always be local dairy production.
Any thoughts?? Thanks to everyone for making TOD a great place to spend every evening.
I would do both. Work in the oil patch and do free lance work on the side for the cheese factory, while living on half or less of your income.
In regard to the Oil Patch, we are trying to do more with a combination of old people and old equipment. IMO, the future is pretty bright for almost any aspect of energy production/conservation. The same can't be said for the net energy consumers.
It doesn't hurt to aquire another skill that might come in handy later when the giant cheese factories go belly up and the country side is again dotted with small cheese factories serving Profoundly Local constituents.
And, in the not-too-distant future You might be able to buy the 'Big Cheese' Factories' equipment dirt cheap at auction. The big bonus being you will already know how to maintain it.
What ever happened to the single hulls that had to be turned into double hulls?
Anyone know what the going rate per day one of those VLCC are rented out at?
An old Philosophy Professor of mine, said he made money in buying Cargo containers like those you see on ships and on the backs of trucks, he made money renting or leasing them out. He told us he was going to retire on the income, I never did find out if he succeeded.
Where can I invest my new to nothing income on VLCCs?
A lot of gas in the gross number is counted several times as gas is cycled through gas caps in oil reservoirs. The associated gas is extracted from the downdip oil wells, and is sometimes run through a gas plant to extract the NGL's and is then injected back into the gas cap. The largest example of this is the Prudhoe Bay Field.
I can't speak for Hothgor, but he seems to be expressing the Michael Lynch/Peter Huber point of view that there will always be some sort of new source of energy that will allow us to continue to build suburban developments, new highways and new Walmarts. (I noted with interest yesterday the announcement of a new exurban development one hour away from downtown Dallas where they are taking 2,100 acres of agricultural land and coverting it into a new suburban development.)
In any case, given the choice between the Lynch/Huber point of view and the Richard Rainwater point of view, I would lean toward Richard Rainwater, who is integrating himself into small town life and expanding his ablity to grow his own food.
Brick wall ahead. Abandon ship!
Brick Wall Ahead. Grab a cold one and a chair and sit back and watch.
http://www.figmentfly.com/bb/q45.html
But I'm not all about NG, I'm about a smart future!! And a smart future has smart transportation. I keep hearing people saying the best way to reduce our dependence on oil is to increase the MPG rating of our auto fleet. If these people would exercise even an ounce of common sense, they would realize that the best way to reduce our dependence on oil is to stop heating and cooling their entire homes, and start demanding our auto companies build super efficient EV's/PEHV's/CATs.
I would rather see us eliminated ~9-10 million bpd of hydrocarbon usage then reduce that by a 3rd because we drive around in 40 mpg toyota prius.
And talk about hypocrisies. In a world where people obviously know the dangers of over consumption of FF's 'depletes what precious amount we have left AND causes GW' some of you guys are wasting VAST AMOUNTS of it just to indulge yourself. Westexas, I can hardly believe you thought it was prudent to fly halfway around the world to go on vacation for two weeks over seas. And for TOD in general, how short sighted can you get by flying/driving into a conference in Boston when a video-conference broadcast live over the internet would have been so much better.
I guess being an ILL Doomer prevents such rational conservation practices!
We don't need to stop driving when the energy that already goes to waste now can be utilized into a transportation source. What we need to stop doing is heating/cooling our entire homes and stop flying/driving ICEs :)
Stop cheer leading the ILL Doomer and start practicing what you preach :P
BTW, Rod Dreher, a conservative editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News and published author, who used to work for the National Review, just announced that he voting straight Democratic next week. He said we desperately need some accountability.
Did anyone see the HBO program on electronic voting machines last night? I think that Diebold tried to stop HBO from running the program. The enduring question is why ATM's generate a paper trail, but electronic touch screens don't.
I'm not too concerned about the voting machines this time around and I'll tell you why. If there was any hacking/manipulation last time around, it could only be done in very close races. This time around, I think there will be some large differences that can't be made up with a few thousand changed votes here and there. Any large-scale manipulation would be too blatant to be believable.
At the very least, I think they will be less dishonest and give the US a better chance at engaging the world on some solutions than the GOP. We've tried their way...global grab of resources...and it ain't working so hot. Time to let someone else give it a go.
I don't have any hope at this time for wise policies on oil or climate change from either party, however. Most politicians are oblivious, and when a problem is recognized, the first recourse it to blame it on conspiracy of the other guys.