DrumBeat: November 5, 2006
Posted by threadbot on November 5, 2006 - 9:20am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Bush Says U.S. Pullout Would Let Iraq Radicals Use Oil as a Weapon
During the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, President Bush and his aides sternly dismissed suggestions that the war was all about oil. "Nonsense," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld declared. "This is not about that," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer.Now, more than 3 1/2 years later, someone else is asserting that the war is about oil -- President Bush.
Chavez Threatens to Halt Oil to U.S.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened Saturday to halt oil exports to the United States and said opponents of his leftist government are not welcome within the military or the state-run oil company.Also on Saturday, tens of thousands of supporters of Manuel Rosales, Chavez's main challenger in Dec. 3 presidential elections, staged a 16-mile march through the capital Caracas.
Some musings concerning the end of the world as we know it
For some years now, a thought has been troubling me. It's this: things cannot go on the way they have been forever, and sooner or later this machine we call the economy is going to completely destroy itself and in all likelihood take our civilization down with it.The blood of our economy is oil, and it will not last anywhere near forever. Without it's continuous flow, everything we take for granted stops.
Cities can vote to dump PG&E for public utility
The quest for cheaper utility rates in parts of Yolo County began in Davis in the late 1990s, as California began its failed experiment with energy deregulation.The ensuing crisis, marked by blackouts and soaring utility rates, led PG&E and other utility giants to rack up billions of dollars in debt. Municipally owned utilities emerged relatively unscathed.
Investors are filling up with biofuels
HENRY FORD dubbed ethanol “the fuel of the future” and planned to run his ubiquitous Model T car on it. Unfortunately, the discovery of cheap petrol and the prohibition of alcohol in America in 1920 put the brakes on his plans.But now ethanol, a type of alcohol, is making a comeback. It is one of two biofuels — fuels made from plants rather than pumped out of the ground — that are being driven into the limelight by fears over climate change.
Soaring global demand for energy
The global demand for energy is expected to increase 50 to 60 per cent by 2030, much of it from newly emerging markets.
Oil producers learning to face up to the challenges of decline
UKOOA estimates that just over half the UK's oil reserves have been extracted, leaving an estimated 27 billion barrels, worth around £850bn, under the waves.The North Sea's oil barons are concerned that competition from newer oilfields, an ageing workforce and an out-of-date tax regime may make it hard to get the remaining oil out.
Low-cost carriers hit back on climate change
The aviation industry is desperately defending itself against last week's Stern report, which said reducing air traffic to cut carbon and other emissions would be crucial in preventing climate change.
Scientific news grim for UN talks on global warming
An upcoming UN conference on climate change is taking place against a darkening background of scientific news, for barely a week goes by without a major study adding to a tall pile of distressing evidence.Doubts about the reality of global warming that were significant half a dozen years ago have today shrunk to zero, leaving only denialists and fossil-industry lobbyists in opposition.
Green Power on the march: Thousands unite to rally against global warming
People power comes to the fight against climate change today as Britain witnesses its biggest march and rally demanding the Government acts against the threat of global warming.
Climate warning is a bit too stern
A FIERCE DEBATE has been raging, mainly on the internet, and for once it isn’t about Princess Diana, September 11 or UFOs. The debate is about oil, and whether the world is about to run out of it.
Australia calls drought summit as economy threatened
SYDNEY (AFP) - Australian Prime Minister John Howard has called an emergency drought summit as climate change and rising interest rates threaten a 10-year economic boom -- and his grip on power.Shaping up as the worst drought since white settlement more than 200 years ago, the "big dry" is likely to cut agricultural output by 20 percent and GDP by around 0.7 percent, government officials say.
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0611052531150952.htm
The first article below is one I usually do not buy into because there is always someone saying that we will do this or that, or this nation will this or that in the next 30-120 days, or early in 2007, etc. But John Keegan is a noted older military historian who is widely published and he is pointing out a basic problem facing Israel.
Desperate people do strange and not thought out stuff lots of times.
Why Israel will go to war again - soon
By John Keegan
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 03/11/2006
There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defence Force (IDF) and Hizbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah's fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.
Hizbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. Hamas is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike.
See for rest of article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/11/03/do0302.xml
This was a comment from one reader on the article that I thought was insightful
An expat Lebanese Christian I chatted to recently, criticised Israel, not for defending herself as she did but for causing, as a common enemy, a sort of temporary alliance of otherwise quite mutually hostile Lebanese Muslim groups: Sunni and Shia. Even so, this person was in no doubt about the Muslim (divided or not) intended final solution: Israel's total destruction and the restoration of Islamic sovereignty, launched from Lebanon (and now Gaza), over the Jewish State.
Israel's return to original borders would bring no end to the conflict. The Jewish State's entire obliteration would.
This is a religious war with political and territorial implications; not a territorial conflict with peripheral religious connotations as it is often presented. It's a clash of ideas and beliefs. Possibly even a fight to the finish.
Knowing this, Israel will continue to defend herself (there's no choice) for as long as the intention to destroy her and crush the sovereign Jewish presence, is there. And it's there. Hezbollah and Hamas put it there. And Israel will have to strike again. John Keegan is correct.
Lebanese Christians, caught in the middle, are leaving, so I was told.
Here is some other recent material:
DEBKAfile's Military Sources: The spectacular swarm of sophisticated missiles fired in Iran's surprise military exercise stuns military planners in the US, Israel and Europe
November 5, 2006, 2:43 PM (GMT+02:00)
Our sources reveal that scores of surface missiles - a record for any war games anywhere - were tested simultaneously at a desert testing site some two hours drive from Tehran Thursday, Nov. 2. Precisely planned, the testing went smoothly. Input has not yet come in about the accuracy of their targeting.
A senior American missile expert told DEBKAfile that the Iranians demonstrated up-to-date missile-launching technology which the West had not known them to possess. They also displayed unfamiliar warheads. But their most startling feat was the successful first test-fire of the long-range Shehab-3 with its cluster of tens of small bomblets, as DEBKAfile revealed Oct. 31. The entire range bore the imprint of new purchases from China.
This Shehab-3, whose 2,000-km range brings Israel, the Middle East and Europe within reach - may be more than a match for any anti-missile missile system in American, Israeli or European arsenals - depending critically on the point of its fragmentation. Some of its features are still an enigma in the West.
If the Shehab-3's cluster separates close to target, the Israel-US Arrow has a chance to intercept it, but the Americans and Israelis have no defense against the multiple warhead if it separates at a distance.
Another point made by DEBKAfile's sources is that the spectacular missile show may have been designed for European consumption as much as to impress the US and Israel. Rather than making a secret of the display, General Rahim Safavi, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, which staged the exercise, bragged that Iran had proved its ability to strike targets outside the Middle East. Europe, which Tehran sees as susceptible to such threats, was being warned that it would be first in line for a backlash from a US or Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iran announced its war game Wednesday night, Nov. 1, in response to the to the US-led naval movements and buildup in the in the Red Sea (see separate item).
Some of the other missiles tested in the exercise were the Shehab-2, Aolfaqar-73, Fateh-110, Scud B and Zelzal-2.
And with peak oil looming, I see that as inevitable.
The only question is whether Israel will take down the world when she falls.
I put it it about 50-50...
Borat may have told you.
It's not like this is some wacky idea. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel gave some consideration to the "last resort."
And no, it's not "because they are Jews." I think any country in their situation would be tempted. Or rather, that some of the more extreme types within any society would be.
Israel, if they were to use a nuclear weapon as a "last resort" (even though they have had that weapon for decades and have not used it before...)... or the Radical Islamic Army stationed at their borders?
Who is the aggressor? Were the Jews in Germany were the cause of "bringing down the world" in WWII.
From the one woman show "Golda" which I assume is correct.
Alan
Who is right and who is wrong doesn't matter. Who pulls the trigger on the nukes does.
But how to do that when you start by saying The Country being Threatened is to blame?
If the Radical Islamic Army next threatens France, Germany etc - do you blame France, Germany, etc for (I think they look, smell, taste, etc and even worship the same godz... harder to abandon maybe)?
Islam is not a serious threat to France, Germany, etc. There may be occasional terrorist attacks, but they are not an existential threat.
It is an existential threat to Israel, though, which is why they were tempted to use "the last resort."
As for prevention...unless we somehow get Israel to follow Ahmadinejad's advice and move to Europe, I don't see anything we can do about it. They are vastly outnumbered, in the midst of a sea of people who hate them...and who are reproducing a lot faster than they are. Oil is allowing them to maintain military superiority. It's a temporary situation.
The time to do something was back in the '60s, when Israel was becoming a nuclear nation.
We are not talking about Islam.
We are talking about Whether or Not the Radical Islamic Army assembled by Iran is a threat. How serious a threat is another question, a threat to whom at PRESENT and in the not-too-distant future are still other questions.
How many countries did The Nazi's take before the rest of the world woke up?
I don't think anyone should take "Ahmadinejad's advice " and I don't think stopping Israel from becoming a nuclear nation would have been a solution.
Three of the hottest hot spots in the world today are due to England's hasty dismantling of their empire: Israel-Palestine, Pakistan-India-Kashmir...and Iraq.
Israel is just the starting point for the Radical Islamic Army.
What we would like and what is are two different things.
eWe have to deal with what is. Israel exists and is the First Target for the Radical Islamic Army of Iranistan.
Okay, so Israel will be Voted Off The Island first...
I think "We" meddled in their region because "they" have The Oil and that is the only reason "we" pretend to give a rat's hinder for "them."
The Tribes are forming... "The Needy" team is thinking of who they will expell first... meanwhile...
(I think "painfully obvious" will become a common phrase for all of us soon enough.)
Besides being a false profet, he was also a bandit, a murderer, and a pederast.
Small wonder Hitler admired his self-made religion.
Maybe send terminator back to take out Drake...
If you really wanted to put a stop to this you would have to take your time machine back 100K+ years and knock off "eve" and maybe "adam" too...
"Unfamiliar disease killed off the great majority of the indigenous population in the Americas."
Sending in Smallpox on clothing to the villages kinda helped things along too.
"I'd go back and prevent Israel from ever being created."
Using the same arguements and looking at what how our country has been a major player in what we now face, it seems that the time machine might have been better used to prevent the USA from ever being created.
Is a bit of bias showing in your remarks? They predate the US by many hundreds of years and actually owned the land they now have a small piece of. They simply ask to live in peace and yet you would prevent them from assuming that land?
I think you are way off base here. Way way off.
Again,,they simply ask to be left alone. They did not start any of the agressive wars against them. They merely attempted to survive.
This is bullshit.
I'm sure a lot of people think that. And maybe they are right.
But I have a feeling it wouldn't make much of a difference. If the U.S. didn't arise here, another, very similar country would have.
"They predate the US by many hundreds of years and actually owned the land they now have a small piece of. They simply ask to live in peace and yet you would prevent them from assuming that land?"
Wow! You have little, or a very biased, understanding of the history of the region including and surrounding Israel (also called "occupied Palestine" by some). I can't think of a single conflict where it can't be argued that Israel had a hand in the conflict. Sometimes the hand was small, most of the time it was astonishingly huge. The Wikipedia page on the History of Israel bounces back and forth a bit in its bias, but isn't a bad place to start cultivating an understanding.
I agree that the vast majority of Israeli citizens just want to live in peace. However, their government is definitely not acting in a way that will bring that peace. And the Israeli citizenry seems to grudgingly accept that their government's actions are justified. The American occupation of Iraq has some of the same themes.
Frankly, I agree with Leanan that Israel is between a rock and hard place and will probably get squeezed out of existence eventually. Things will get much worse in the region before they get better. I would much rather see an end to the hostilities and everybody in the region live in a symbiotic way, but I'm far from hopeful.
The Origins and Evolution of the Palestine Problem
It's full of primary source material and direct quotes. One of the more prescient quotes is by British Member of Parliament, Lord Sydenham in 1922:
You are right. And, on the day it ended, the world inventory of nukes was 0; we were out. And the 3 which had been exploded were pretty small....
From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there were about 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world in 2002. Many of the "decommissioned" weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed.[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
An all out war would be TEOTWAWKI
Ben Dover@KissRat'sAssGoodbye.com
How about four?
http://www.cccoe.k12.ca.us/pc/nuclear.htm
Port of Chicago.
Scenario:
Israel nukes southern Lebanon
A head of the Pakistani intelligence service decides to sell nukes to Syria as revenge (seeing how Syria's got to deal with the fallout)
Syria hits Jerusalem
Israel reflexively nukes every target it has in the Middle East, making the Qa'ba as radioactive as a reactor core.
Pakistan hits back at Israel
India's drawn in with justification to attack Pakistan
All without three of the most belligerent entities - Al Qaeda, North Korea, or the United States - doing a thing.
Do it yourself version. The dude nailed it in'02