DrumBeat: November 9, 2006
Posted by threadbot on November 9, 2006 - 9:20am
Topic: Miscellaneous
House Energy Chief's Loss Opens Door for Energy Policy Shift
With the ouster by California voters of U.S. House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo, R-Calif., energy policy changes are expected next year when Democrats control the House of Representatives.Analysts are already predicting that a Democrat-controlled House will put energy companies on the defensive as lawmakers seek to tax oil companies' profits while boosting renewable energy, climate change and energy efficiency policies. Large energy company stocks, particularly Big Oil, appeared unaffected, however.
UN: Climate change threatens agricultural crisis
Immediate steps are needed to avert a potential catastrophe as climate change dries up water resources in drought affected areas, hitting poor farmers, a United Nations report said on Thursday.The vast majority of the world's malnourished people, estimated at about 830 million people, are small farmers, herders and farm laborers, pointing to devastating effects from global warning and requiring a tripling of yearly farming aid to poor countries.
"Climate change threatens to intensify water insecurity on an unparalleled scale," the annual U.N. Human Development Report said.
Polar ice cores show "bipolar seesaw" climate link
Comparison with cores from Greenland proves a strong north-south link and also highlights the role of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) -- the so-called Atlantic Conveyor -- in the process of heat transfer."It is really astounding how systematic this process worked also for smaller temperature changes in the Antarctic," said team leader Hubertus Fischer from the Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany.
Kuwait to double oil refinery upgrade plan
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC) is set to add 110,000 to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude processing capacity at its existing refineries by 2012, nearly double its initial upgrade plan, a company official said on Thursday.
China, Egypt reach nuclear energy agreement
BEIJING (AFP) - China and Egypt agreed to co-operate on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, state media said, in a development that could rile the United States, a traditional Cairo ally.
Clean energy is 'cost effective'
Using cleaner and more efficient energy not only helps the environment but also makes economic sense, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Saudi Aramco Sr. Vice President discusses energy market volatility, energy security
In a speech yesterday addressed to the Korean Forum for Progress, an influential business group, Abdulaziz F. Al-Khayyal, Saudi Aramco's Senior Vice President of Refining, Marketing and International, offered his insights into some of the forces contributing to global energy market volatility, as well as addressing how best to approach the issue of energy security.
The 'dark matter' of American politics
The "dark matter" of American politics is the physical world--the climate, the air, the water, the minerals, the energy resources--upon which all of our political, social, cultural and economic life depend. The state of our physical world exerts a kind of hidden gravitational pull on the important issues of the day. And yet, to listen to the rhetoric of the most recent election campaign, you would conclude that the ecological underpinnings of our civilization are in such good condition that they require virtually no attention.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Exxon & Peak Oil
Every now and again, a senior oil company executive speaks optimistically to some august gathering about all the oil that is left. This time the honor fell to Stephen Pryor, president of ExxonMobil Refining. Speaking to a conference in Houston, Mr. Pryor stridently asserted that "energy resources are adequate to sustain growth— we are not peak oil people."
India: Huge oil, gas reserves lie untapped
According to him, scientific advancements are required in four broader technology areas which include source rock identification, based on regional geological studies, trap mapping based on seismic technology, seal mapping based on regional picture and analogs and reservoir quantification based on attribute mapping to successfully tap the country's estimated oil shale of 2.6 trillion barbells of recoverable oil which, according to him, is equal to the world's proven oil reserves.
Byron W. King - 2006 Boston ASPO: Peak Oil
Editor Greg likes to call me the Agora Financial "Peak Oil correspondent." That is just fine with me. I have been a "Peak Oil guy" for something like 30 years, starting with meeting the legendary "father of Peak Oil," M. King Hubbert, when he gave a rather poorly attended talk at Harvard back in 1977.
Bush’s Chernobyl economy; hard times are on the way
The only thing keeping the economy from collapsing entirely is the sudden drop in oil prices that “conveniently” coincided with the midterm balloting.This won’t last. According to industry analyst Matthew Simmons the world production of oil may have already peaked, setting the stage for a leveling-off period before the inevitable decline. Simmons has data to show that “world supply of oil has declined to 83.98 million barrels per day in the second quarter after hitting 84.35 million bpd in the forth quarter of 2005.” Oil production is going backwards not forwards.
Saudi Aramco executes integrated materials supply plan
The vice president noted that growth in developing nations such as China and India is being mirrored by growth in Arabian Gulf countries, due to the rise in demand for energy. This has led to unprecedented levels of demand for equipment and raw materials essential to Saudi Aramco as it engages in the largest expansion program in its history, and enormous challenges in reserving materials, manufacturing capacity, on-time material delivery and containing costs.
Netherlands Moves to Make Biofuels use Mandatory
TAIYUAN -- North China's Shanxi Province, the country's biggest coal-producing base, will close 900 more coal mines by June 2008 amid concerns over safety, environmental protection and resource conservation.
Moscow: Winter Energy Crunch Looming
Built on Lenin's order in 1920, the Shatura station survives -- like the rest of the electricity sector -- on aging turbines that suffer from a severe lack of investment. And, like most of the country's power stations, Shatura runs on gas -- a precious commodity that state-run Gazprom is increasingly supplying abroad even as customers at home again face the threat of shortfalls this winter.
"It's the first time in the history of Ontario that I've ever heard the destruction of 136,0000 manufacturing jobs described as an energy-efficiency, energy-conservation program," [NDP Leader Howard] Hampton said. "If you shut down the rest of the paper industry -- and the McGuinty government's well on the way -- you'll reduce electricity consumption by another 1,000 megawatts."
Murmansk's oil and metals bonanza
Up to a quarter of the world's oil and gas reserves are also said to lie dormant in this Arctic wilderness, just waiting to be extracted and fed to the energy-hungry global markets.
Iraq: Kurdish Oil Law Poses Problem For Baghdad
"The Kurds have submitted a draft petroleum act to be adopted that gives them the right to control oil, regardless of the government in Baghdad. The Oil Ministry has submitted another completely different draft that gives the authority to the ministry, not regions. It's the main issue of the conflict: oil and Kurds."
China has rented out a third of the storage space at its first strategic oil reserve to state-run refiner Sinopec, reinforcing fears that Beijing may use its emergency stocks more readily than Western nations.
Energy programs around the globe: Many countries are implementing various programs to improve energy efficiency.
Wave-powered 'ducks' could purify seawater
Ocean waves could provide an energy-efficient way to desalinate seawater, say UK researchers. While conventional purification plants have high energy demands, the rocking motion of floating buoys could be used to drive a pump system for desalination.
Alternative Energy and Clean Technology: A Changing Climate
Potluck puts focus on local food
Susan Ornelas is inviting you to the potluck she is helping organize, but don't bring any chocolate, bread or mustard.The potluck, co-sponsored by Ornelas' Peak Oil Action Group and the Humboldt State University Campus Center for Appropriate Technology, aims to showcase foods grown and produced within 250 miles of Arcata.
Oil above $60, supported by OPEC and U.S. stocks draw
Oil rose almost a dollar to more than $60 a barrel on Thursday, supported by OPEC supply cuts and a drop in fuel stockpiles in top oil consumer the United States.OPEC is lowering output and some members have said the group may cut supply further in December. The cutback comes as oil demand is nearing its seasonal peak in the northern hemisphere winter.
Blackout puts outdated power grid in spotlight
European regulators have launched an enquiry over the power cut that briefly left 10 million people in the dark last week-end. But the outing also raised questions about the grid's ability to cope with the addition of renewable energy sources.



Get that, it is extremely dangerous not to consider the other vast reserves located outside the Middle East. Then at the bottom of the page they provide a link that tells us what the world' real reserves really are. They have 397.6 billion barrels in North America, 185.5 billion barrels in South America and 423.8 billion barrels in Europe and the Former USSR.
So sleep well tonight folks, the world is awash in oil. And remember, it is extremely dangerous not to consider these vast reserves when planning for the future.
Ron Patterson
TRUTH <---------------------------->UNTRUTH
1. World awash in oil<---------------->1. Global Warming is
mankind's fault
2. World awash in terrorists<------------>2. Drunk drivers kill
more innocent civilians
3. Our Econmy is "strong"<------------>3. Housing bubble about to
burst
4. ????
Many TOD readers are by this time probably familiar with my grim might-makes-right calculus regarding geopolitical developments in their relation to energy. This calculus is based on the primacy of raw power in determining events of human history (most especially the raw military power held by the United States).
Here is the controversial claim I would like to discuss: I assert that this calculus is predicated upon a far more realistic assessment of human nature than that adopted by most people who reject religion. The faith that many Peak Oilers who are hopeful for the future of humanity place in human nature is a blind faith. It is itself a form of unfounded religious belief that is in fact far less rationally defensible than traditional Judeo-Christian religious beliefs that many posters here reject.
Now how are you different?
I had to laugh at your post. Mostly because you just summed up about 2 dozen books (including mine) and an equal number of websites (including mine) in two sentences.
When I used to give talks I would finish with a joke about the irony of the talk itself. The fact that a group of highly educated people with access to more information than all previous generations combined needed me to tell them that in regards to oil:
A) yeah, we're running the f--k out. . .
and
B) Bush invaded Iraq to grab what's left
. . . is to me sort of funny. Only in a culture as dumbed down as ours could somebody like me earn a living from pointing out what should be obvious!
Why do you use the word "calculus"? What has that to do with human nature?
At any rate I have been a student of human nature for many years and have very strong feelings on the subject. However before I can debate your position I must have a better handle on exactly what your position is.
Ron Patterson
matt
Humans are generally good when they have a full stomach, clothes on their back and a roof over their head. Have you ever observed a few million people in sheer desperation? Were you in Argentina in 2001?
People, in times of severe crisis, behave entirely different than they do in times of plenty. One does not have to be a psychologist to figure this out. All one must do is study history.
Ron Patterson
Blind faith is thinking we will overcome X via technology that hasn't been invented because we must.
I am saying this is not a blind faith scenario, thats all.
ORM,
This is exactly what is happening right now in Iraq. BUsh is killing Iraqis so Halliburton and friends can steal their oil and then slosh the money they make around the private accounts of their friends. =)
Will post article if I am able to find it again.
However I came accross this interesting article;
General Adaption Syndrome
(cf. Selye, 1974)
...<align="middle">
Link Punctuation Marks!!
Odds are you wouldn't if die-off proceeded too fast. But don't be glum. If you're young enough you'll probably get to witness the last stomach wrenching gyrations of a whole planet-wide species in overshoot (complete with its own version of the "undulating plateau") before you're done down here, if that graph plays out.
Yes. This should not be a surprise that the above graph follows a bell-shaped curve as apparently Hubbert adapted the basis for his model from ones pre-exisiting and proved in the life sciences.
I do realize that it would be a completely separate calculation than the orginal HL for oil (and probably far more complex), but not wrong as such.
But is any resource in the end truly renewable? And even if it could be argued otherwise are not animal populations ultimately constrained by Liebig's law of the minimum? I think this is what this graph is implying. In our case one could argue that oil "is" that scarcest resource.
Sorry, animal populations should just read populations.
Oilrig Medic says
"There are far more mothers than murderers."
And huge numbers of mothers are murderers.
It isn't that the pregancy is 'unplanned' for surely they are not so stupid as to believe that, but desire to turn a blind eye to the facts of reproduction. Rather its that the pregnancy is inconvient or unwanted.
The populace just spoke in many ballot initiatives regarding abortion and they do not wish bans on such. This is obvious judging from the vote.
Again ,IMO ,potential 'mothers' who seek to abort are destroying life and are there for murderers with knowledge and planning a forethought.
Its that ole moral(possibly religious) attitude vs our new bright and shiny 'gimme it now and I don't want anything holding me up' attitude of this generation and that which has brought us close to the brink of doom.
Before someone objects ...there is hardly a single female who would allow any male to force her into an abortion , not with the current outstanding feminine rights that exist.
All that said I agree with Philreg as to the current philosophies (none actually but mass consumerism,ego and greed) that inhabit our land.
I chose the path of moral and spiritual belief. This is not the same as a church-going , diehard , Christian of the 'Vast Right Wing' conspiracy nor of 'The Base'.
To me its personal and how I live.
They chose there's freely. So do I.
airdale--
not meaning to hijack the thread,
just replying to what someone said,
Airdale,
While a huge number of mothers may decide to have abortions (a decision I disagree with but not mine to decide) I don't think a huge PERCENTAGE of mothers are doing so. Seriously the media pounds bad things into our brains all day long terrorism, train wrecks, democrats taking over congress. There is never live helicopter coverge of a boy helping an old woman across the street. I think if the media were "Fair and Balanced" LOL with positive and negative coverage we would have more faith in people.
matt
The effect of that action yeilds what? And how many times can that action happen?
The effect of you being shot and the shooting taking your food is? How many times can that happen?
The negitive actions can result in death. The positive actions result in, well another day of positive.
The focus on the negative is because of the outcomes.
I am not talking about the reason for the coverage but the effect. Sex and violence sell, nobody would tune in for little boys helping old ladies across the street except old ladies and they are not the demographic with the most money. My point is the media has brow beaten us to live in fear.
matt
And my point is the follow-on effects of violence is WHY.
The end of cheap energy will result in people reacting violently.
Feel free to show how the end of cheap energy will have no economic effects. Feel free to show how collapsing economies don't result in more violence. Feel free to show that man has no histroy of figthing over resources.
The "doomers" have pointed to the past as proof. The 'non-doomers' point to 'advances', yet when asked how global climet change, endpoint of Phosperous in 130 years (per USGS), ocean fish stock collapse, prions in the food chain, man-made toxins in the food change AND the end of cheap energy are going to be 'solved' by 'advances'... it is only the voices of the 'doomers' that remain,
So come on, all you 'positive people' - whats your solution to the abouve things 'advances will solve'?
Really? Huh. Care to show your source?
Because the USGS source says 60 to 130 years of mineable resouce. http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2005.tb00413.x
Ocean fish stocks can be mitigated responsible fishery management
Interesting position. Given the fishing regulations that are in place to do just that and yet the stock are crashing, excatly HOW is 'more regulation' going to help?
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.fisheries.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/image/849/histo rical2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.fisheries.nsw.gov.au/threatened_species/general/species/black_co d_guide&h=282&w=400&sz=32&hl=en&start=6&tbnid=B_wV64r-O7qgUM:&tbnh=87&am p;tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhistoric%2Blarge%2Bcod%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DN
as well as by iron fertilization
Got proof of this outcome? A model?
Prions are in individual links of the food chain and herds can be slaughtered. Not a big threat
Huh. Interesting view. Yet, where are these 'slaughtered animals' fed? Or ones that are just simple 'downer' animals?
If it such a non-issue, as you claim, why can't creekstone farms test each of their slaughtered animals?
http://www.organicconsumers.org/2006/article_1110.cfm
http://www.mad-cow.org/
Phosphorus is common. It is currently used wastefully and there are many ways to recover it.
There are laws in place for lots of things that does not translate into proper management. Less fishermen less boats less waters and rotating waters for fishing as well as more studies on the fisheries.
Fish breed if one male and one female exist they can come back given the right situation.
There are multiple models for nutrient rich waters increasing plankton, then krill and so on google it or read a book.
Prions are self replicating proteins acting like viri but technically not they don't have nucleic acids. If you kill a sick animal and bury or incinerate it it is gone. If you grind it up and feed it to a same level herbivore you spread it. Prions occur naturally in 1/100,000-1,000,000 mammals. It is the bad practices of the meat industry that propogate it. Who cares if they test their animals? We need to not feed herbivores other herbivores.
Non issue.
The only thing on your list that is of real concern is climate change. We have a way to change but not the will at the moment.
So that is the rebuttal to the USGS's 60 to 130 year limit.
Recovery - like peeing in a cup?
Less fishermen less boats less waters
And yet, how will THAT happen? Wioll that be like the recovery of P in Pee?
There are multiple models for nutrient rich waters increasing plankton, then krill and so on
And the models I've seen show the other bits in the water being consumed, resulting in a crash laster or worst-case inability for reproduction later.
But feel free to show the models that don't result.
It is the bad practices of the meat industry that propogate it.
And yet, they keep doing it. Now, how will this activity be stopped in the myitical future of 'progress'
If it is such a 'non-issue' then why isn't it being done?
Who cares if they test their animals?
And yet the USDA has stopped them.
Again, you state a buch of 'could be's' - yet I've not seen one of the 'could be's' be addressed in the now, or how the present efforts to address an effect have failed.
Why are you beliving that victory will be snatched from the jaws of failure? Why are the humans of the future going to be better at these issues than the humans of the now who have cheap energy?
What are you not getting about prions? They are not contagious, and all we need to stop their spread is kill the herd and not feed it to another herbivore. If you make catfish feed out of it the prion does not jump.
Seriously smallpox or birdflu are way more of a threat and they are still minimal.
I posted a link above to phosphorous and yes you can get it from urine as well as byproducts of the meat industry.
I spoke with my bro n law a geologist with the USGS and he agrees with me that there is plenty of phosphorous to gow around the question is at what price. Given this is an appeal to authority but no more than yours.
I will post a study on the ocean fertilizer on tommorrows drumbeat I need to leave now to go to dinner.
The less fishermen less boats less legal fishing waters. Be aggressive. Tax ocean products fund the coast guard and hatcheries. Form treaties and enforce them. Sink boats.
Climate change may be out of our control as a nation but the fisheries are not.
http://www.nal.usda.gov/awic/news/bse/cristse.htm
BSE spread from the United Kingdom into Western Europe despite slaughter of infected animals, control of live animal movements, and mandated restrictions on animal feeding practices.Doesn't seem as simple as slaughter of infected animals and feed control.
On the fish-feed claim, do you have a link for the research on that?
And again I ask - given controls already installed and their failure... how in the new 'happy' future will failure not be the option? The willingness of one human to screw over many others for the one human to gain an advantage is well documented.
There is your link on the prions, mammalian only.
Great page if you are interested in this. Again you are way more likely to die of many other things. This is like asbestos, an industry existed and consequences were found out after people got sick.
Anyway had some argentinian beef for dinner very good free range healthy cow...yum.
I agree with you fisheries are a problem, their management needs an overhaul.
I agree climate change is a problem. Plant some trees and conserve in your own household. Write your congressperson.
matt
This is not true for birds-- the passenger pigeon went extinct after its population fell below a critical level and breeding fell off until extinction, not because the last birds were killed-- and I doubt it is true in many species where similar such critical population sizes have to exist for viable propogation of the species.