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DrumBeat: December 17, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 17, 2006 - 9:55am
Topic: Miscellaneous
According to the EIA, hybrids will constitute 10 percent of new light-duty vehicles by 2030, and the same amount (2 million per year) will be flex fuel vehicles. In both cases those numbers indicate slow growth that won't do much to reduce vehicles emissions or petroleum consumption. The number of diesel vehicles sold will increase to 1.2 million annually.Even though the fuel cell car has received the most hype and funding of any of the Bush Administration initiatives for alternative propulsion, the EIA says the combined market share of fuel cell, natural gas, and electric vehicles will be just 8 percent in 2030.
Energy supplies: Abundant - and off-limits
At least part of the solution to high oil and natural gas prices lies right under our feet, but Congress has failed to change the laws and regulations that keep this domestic energy locked up.
New Zealand: The politics of energy
Even if you don't believe in climate change, believe in the energy crunch. The days of cheap, easy, secure energy supplies are over for the world. That's a massive challenge to NZ industry. Large chunks of it have depended for generations on abundant, cheap power to process low-value commodities.
Shell exec makes case for market decisions
Shell Oil Co. President John Hofmeister has led his company to 16 U.S. cities this year as part of a 50-city tour at a time of high oil-company profits and relatively high prices at the pump.The tour, which could take as long as two years, is a way for Shell to listen to Americans' concerns about the industry, he said. And the talks give Shell a chance to talk about why it believes it should be able to drill offshore in areas that are now off limits.
Iran offers to share nuke know-how with neighbors
TEHRAN, Iran - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday his country was ready to transfer nuclear technology to neighboring countries, nearly a week after Arab states on the Persian Gulf announced plans to consider a joint nuclear program.
China looks to develop more domestic energy sources
BEIJING - China will look to develop domestic sources of energy in the years ahead, with conservation at the heart of the energy agenda, said Ma Kai, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission.
India, China sign key MoU on oil & gas exploration
Beijing: India and China today further cemented their friendship and strategic ties by inking a major pact envisaging joint exploration, production and acquisition of oil assets in third countries which could substantially reduce their energy costs.
Saudi Government goes ahead with oil refinery at Jizan with private participation
Saudi Aramco will supply the refinery with crude through a tanker, as experts consider that building a pipeline from oil wells to the refinery is not economical. The refinery aims at serving foreign clients in Europe, the United States and Asia by supplying products of high specifications.
Russian oil output up 2.2%, export down 0.5% in first 10 months of 2006
Carmakers fight global warming lawsuit
SACRAMENTO, Calif. - The six largest automakers asked a federal judge to toss out a lawsuit by California that accuses them of harming human health and the environment by producing vehicles that contribute to global warming.
Climate change melts Kilimanjaro's snows
The total loss of ice masses ringing Africa's three highest peaks, projected by scientists to happen sometime in the next two to five decades, fits a global pattern playing out in South America's Andes Mountains, in Europe's Alps, in the Himalayas and beyond.Almost every one of more than 300 large glaciers studied worldwide is in retreat, international glaciologists reported in October in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. This is "essentially a response to post-1970 global warming," they said.
Renewable Energy in America, Part 1: A Changing Climate
Broadbased - from the grass roots up - calls have been building for the U.S. to focus efforts and resources on the development of renewable energy sources and infrastructure, following the latest steep and sustained run-up in petroleum and fossil fuel prices.
Bay Localize & Green Roofs: An Interview with Ingrid Severson - transcript and podcast.
This is in response to global warming and peak oil. I don't know if people know what peak oil is, but it is basically just the phenomenon that refers to petroleum depletion. It has massive impacts on the economy and the stability of our resources, etc. It affects the whole world. We're working on a local level which is why we're called Bay Localize because we are striving to bring production of our goods and services more on a local level within the Bay Area.
It made me realize where we were as a country. After all, if installing a programmable thermostat was supposed to be the best way to become more energy efficient and here we had cut our bill by 20% by uninstalling one, that means that we are using way more energy than really needed and are not paying attention to energy use at all.
Colorado: Democrats lay out energy bills
Democratic lawmakers will introduce a slew of bills in the 2007 General Assembly to propel Colorado into becoming the "renewable energy capital of the world."
The top gift for science geeks: It's a nuclear-powered toy. Really.
My Dad spent 10 years as a member of the town council and my uncle was a county commissioner.
Shit constantly happened that NEVER made it into the papers. Town secretary caught embezzling from the treasury three times in a row (embezzled the 2nd and 3rd times to pay back what he stole the first time). Politically connected people didn't have to pay taxes or sewage bills. The police chief was a drunk who was kicked off the state police, and ended up breaking into his mistresses house then held her and her mother at gun point. All this from a town so small it didn't have a stop light.
Zoning changes were very blatantly for sale. At one point a couple of county commissioners emptied the treasury into there own pockets by manipulating contracts and padding the payrolls. In the end they bankrupted the country then got jobs with the state government.
Do not expect any help from your local government.
(This occurred Pennsylvania if anyone is interested)
The answer, I suspect, is when the book is closed on the 2006 year, we will find world oil and product inventories less than in 2005. This will also be very true in the US - despite the strong contrary impression given by the media. As of last week, 12/08/2006, US oil/product inventories were only 4 million barrels ahead of last year.
Next time I will only respond if you document your position first.
China can only import more if someone is losing the bidding wars.
- You are unable to run the generators at the hospital.
- You can't afford cooking fuel
- You can't afford gasoline to run your farm
etc etcSoccer moms are using the fuel that poor African are "conserving"
I also dislike the frequent comments here that say the solution is "conservation", without any thought or plan for what it entails. In response, I have noted before that I think that price is by far the strongest driver for conservation. Legislative and voluntary conservation do suffer somewhat from Jevon's Paradox, which in the context of abundance weaken conservation as it just shifts demand to others.
So in this regard, true conservation is going to come from those most sensitive to price. I'm not saying it is good, just that it is.
I am not entirely convinced that the poorest will bear the brunt of "conservation" in volume terms, although it is likely to be the most painful for them.
Two countries in our part of the world, South Korea and Thailand have the most imported oil intensive economies in the world (oil imports to GDP approached 10%). I would expect that in economic terms, the overall populations of these countries will also be hit hard. Soccer moms, poor commuters, and others with the ability to reduce their oil consumption in the US and other rich countries will probably cut the highest volume, but may barely notice.
I do think my point remains true. That a "bidding contest" is the single most effective means through which conservation will occur.
I am not entirely convinced that the poorest will bear the brunt of "conservation" in volume terms, although it is likely to be the most painful for them.
Two countries in our part of the world, South Korea and Thailand have the most imported oil intensive economies in the world (oil imports to GDP approached 10%). I would expect that in economic terms, the overall populations of these countries will also be hit hard. Soccer moms, poor commuters, and others with the ability to reduce their oil consumption in the US and other rich countries will probably cut the highest volume, but may barely notice.
I do think my point remains true. That a "bidding contest" is the single most effective means through which conservation will occur. And there will be no large scale conservation without people paying more for fuel and gaining less of its benefits, especially the poor.
So 10 percent of new light-duty vehicles, and the same amount (2 million per year), will be flex fuel vehicles by 2030. Fascinating!
The Asian Development Bank believes that there may be 15 times as many cars in 30 years' time in China (a total of 190 million) and 13 times as many in India. I guess no one from the ADB looks at this site.
If the EIA is bad, it does not make the ADB any less unreal.
Are these moving vehicles or do they include vehicles left on the side of the road?
The good folks of the EIA also do not understand that most people think with their geek-gland and thus what starts out as a novelty (hybrids) can become the standard within rather short time. I-Pod anyone? Toyota, on the other hand, understands that quite well... look at their efforts to offer a hybrid version of mainstream cars like the Camry.
Part of this mix will be ethanol. Even assuming a positive return on energy, one shouldn't apply the total gross energy returned in attempting to calculate the 20% renewable energy contribution.
Colorado cannot claim to be at the forefront unless they set specific caps on greenhouse emissions with a plan to reduce them starting now and at least through 2050. Otherwise, it is the usual lip service. Those legislators, both local and national, that I write to, either provide me info on positions that are irrelevant to the issue at hand or don't respond at all knowing they don't have any good answers.
It seems that Bush has gotten through the most critical three and four letter agencies, and is now all the way down the list to the USGS:
matt
As for the reserve estimates he has never commented to me on that but I'll email him.
matt
"Like hydrogen, tritium is difficult to confine; rubber, plastic, and some kinds of steel are all somewhat permeable. This has raised concerns that if tritium is used in quantity, in particular for fusion reactors, it may contribute to radioactive contamination, although its short half-life should prevent any significant accumulation in the atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tritium
Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says "I've lost my electron," The other says "Are you sure?" The first replies "Yes, I'm positive."