DrumBeat: December 18, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 18, 2006 - 9:55am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Suburban sprawl may create heavier kids
Using data from a national health survey, researchers found that teenagers living in sprawling suburbs were more than twice as likely to be overweight as teens in more compact urban areas.The findings echo those of a 2003 study by the same researchers that focused on U.S. adults. The researchers believe the same factors may be driving the link between suburban living and teenagers' weight -- the major one being reliance on cars.
How do we cope with those 100 million more people?
A worldwide energy crisis could paralyze the economy of America's heavily oil-dependent metro regions. Hundreds of new coal-burning, greenhouse gas-emitting power plants are proposed in this country, as well as in India and China. Global warming threatens both our coastlines and the snow packs that provide the West's water. "Economically, environmentally, we have to figure out how to compete with but also collaborate with the world, in transformative ways," said one developer at the ULI conference.
Venezuela, Oil Producers Buy More Euros as Dollar, Oil Slump
Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez is directing a growing share of the country's oil profits into euros as the dollar and crude prices fall.The dollar, down 9.4 percent against the euro this year, may face more pressure in 2007 because Venezuela and oil producers from the United Arab Emirates to Indonesia plan to funnel more money into the single European currency.
The Shah Deniz development in Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian becomes one of the world's largest producing gas fields on December 15th.
Fog lifts, lets oil ships into some US Gulf ports
There were several hours of clear sailing Saturday in Houston but fog was expected to return overnight and continue into Monday, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
Liquid coal: A cheaper, cleaner 21st century fuel?
Major coal mining companies in the United States, which has more coal reserves than Saudi Arabia has oil, are investing in ways to develop fuels derived from carbon.
Top BP exec said to slam company
Accuses the firm of squeezing profits and ignoring maintenance costs too long, as search for new CEO gets underway - report.
Oil crisis boon for sisal Industry
A sisal consultant in the Parastatal Sector Reform Commission (PSRC), Mr J. J. Ngelime, told the 'Daily News' in Dar es Salaam yesterday that world manufacturers using fibre for various reasons now prefer sisal to synthetic fibre, because of unreliable oil supplies in the world.
China unlikely to meet energy efficiency goal
China will fail to meet the target of reducing energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 4 percent this year, Xinhua said. Energy consumption per unit of GDP actually increased by 0.8 percent in the first half of the year and indexes for major pollutants have continued to rise, it said.
Labour slips up on length of oil reserves
LABOUR has been accused of misleading the public in the debate over independence after one of its own policy documents revealed North Sea oil reserves will not run out for “at least 30 years”.While the party has claimed publicly that an independent Scotland would face economic catastrophe because of dwindling oil reserves, the internal Labour document says the industry will continue to flourish for decades to come.
Fred Smith on Energy Independence: The FedEx founder and chairman is a dedicated advocate of free markets—except when it comes to energy, which he believes requires government intervention
Smith believes so strongly that more must be done to secure U.S. energy independence that he became co-chairman of the Washington-based Energy Security Leadership Council, along with General P.X. Kelley (Ret.), former Marine Corps commandant and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This month, the council put out a 64-page report detailing what it thinks should be done. Among the proposals: higher, though more flexible, standards for vehicle fuel efficiency; incentives to manufacture hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles in the U.S.; funding for research on alternative fuels; and government permission for energy companies to drill for oil in Alaska and the Outer Continental Shelf.
Iraq: 60 oil fields waiting to be developed
Iraq, holder of the world's third-largest oil reserves, will offer contracts to develop 60 oil fields, in several batches, starting next year, said Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain Sharistani. Only 20 of Iraq's 80 discovered oilfields are in production, Mr. Sharistani said.
Colorado May Limit Oil and Gas Emissions
DENVER - Facing federal pressure over worsening air pollution, a state air quality commission on Sunday approved its first-ever statewide emissions controls on the booming oil and gas industry.
The big stakes-and bubbling tensions-over who will control Iraq's oil capital.
New type of battery pushed for hybrid cars
Tesco to run fleet on green fuel
Tesco, the UK's largest supermarket chain, has announced plans to run three quarters of its delivery fleet on biodiesel from January next year.
Airlines' profits set to soar with climate measures
Airlines stand to pocket up to £2.7 billion (€4bn) in windfall profits from inclusion in the EU emissions-trading scheme, according to a study published by the IPPR on 18 December 2006.
Competitors draining Gulf of deepwater rigs
After hurricanes Katrina and Rita ravaged the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts in 2005, oil and gas drilling production was greatly disrupted despite just 113 of the more than 4,000 platforms being destroyed in the Gulf of Mexico.But the harshest long-term threat to oil and gas production in Gulf waters now is the dwindling drilling equipment supply.
Many jack-up and deepwater rigs, the massive mobile platforms and ships that drill for oil and gas in deepwater, are leaving the Gulf of Mexico for more lucrative jobs elsewhere, said David Dismukes, associate director of Louisiana State University Center for Entergy Studies.
The energy crisis has received just the usual knee-jerk response, with expensive thermal generation and almost endless utopian promises of dam construction at Bujagali and Karuma.
...Argentine oil production has been declining to September, “a logical” consequence of the “exhaustion of fields,” he said, adding that no major increase in production is foreseen in the near future. ...The General Manager quantifying the amount into gold production indicated that Newmont could not meet its target of 250,000 ounces, but only produced 2000 since it first poured its first gold in July this year. The value of 200,000 ounces was $120 million with the government taking 3% out the total amount.OSLO, Norway - Norwegian oil companies Statoil ASA and Norsk Hydro ASA announced plans Monday to merge their offshore oil and natural gas units in a deal they said would create the world's largest offshore oil operator.
OPEC sees weaker oil market next year
LONDON - OPEC on Monday said the fundamentals of the world oil market show signs of weakening in 2007 as economic growth slows and supply from non-OPEC countries rises faster than global demand.
100 Things You Can Do to Get Ready for Peak Oil
Uganda: Why can’t we respond wisely to crisis?
UGANDA is one country that will make any critical mind spin in frustration. Parliament is proposing the purchase of Japanese monster cars at a cost of sh20b ‘because our roads are bad’ as Prof. Apolo Nsibambi justified sometime back.
Africans eye biofuels to cut Opec price burden
Even before world oil prices rose again after Opec members pledged a production cut last Thursday, poor countries were looking to the hardy Jatropha bush to counter the crippling impact of energy costs that some compare to the ravages of HIV/AIDS.
Indonesia: Oil Production to Continue Decreasing Until 2009
Jakarta: The energy crisis still threatens Indonesia because it is estimated that the decrease in national crude oil and natural gas production will continue until 2009.
Argentina facing severe energy shortage
López Anadón also said that the 2001-2002 crisis led to widespread breach of contracts in the energy sector, changes of regulations, new taxes on exports, a strong devaluation of the peso and a distortion of relative prices of different fuels.
Life is impossible without energy. The life of a contemporary person - even more so. To consume power, one should produce it. Traditional resources for that are unfortunately exhaustible, but in order to pass on to alternative energy, a lot of problems should be solved. Has the energy crisis begun? If so - what should be done about it, if not – how should we get ready for it?
Ghana: Newmont loses $30 million due to power crisis
NEWMONT GOLD Ghana Ltd (NGGL) in an interview with The Chronicle, has disclosed that the company has lost $30 million as a result of the energy crisis currently facing the nation.
Connecticut: Democrats’ promises on energy come late
Democratic state legislative leaders have been in a tizzy lately over impending electricity rate increases, demanding that state regulators delay action long enough for the General Assembly to find a solution.
Regarding 2, nobody is an expert on the entire oil industry. During my career I have worked in Research and Development and Downstream. Someone asked what Downstream means, and this is refining - taking the oil and turning it into gasoline. You can spend a career becoming an expert in 1 very small area of refining, such as how to run a catalytic cracker. Upstream, where they take oil and gas from the ground, is an entirely different area. I don't personally know anyone that is an expert in both Downstream and Upstream. I am sure they exist, but most people spend their career in one area or the other. I am crossing over from Downstream to Upstream with my move to Scotland, but I know that I will be on a steep learning curve. And despite the claim of one of my attackers, I have never presented myself as an Upstream expert. That will change over time, but right now I am trying to learn, which is what TOD is for.
Regarding 1 above, many of the responses were of the nature "Those numbers can't be right." Of course the numbers were right, but based on this sort of reaction, it was definitely worth sharing the information because a lot of people didn't know. Here is the part of the e-mail I want to share:
Remember, there are a lot of new people on this site. Reserves growth was news to this person, as it was news to others. (Despite what some of my other critics said, it wasn't the reserves growth that was surprising to me; it was the difference between how far we drew our reserves down versus how much we produced).
In conclusion, I would call for a little more civility. One of the editors expressed concern to me over some of the reactions to my post. I was also quite surprised at the rancor it unleashed within some. But such reactions will drive some viewers from here, and it will cause others not to post. So, think about that, and ask yourself if you would say such things to someone sitting across from you at a table.
Cheers, Robert
BTW - which mountain were you up on? :-)
Francois
I am in the mountains directly west of Colorado Springs, near Pike's Peak. On Saturday, we climbed Mt. Arthur, and I hope my pictures turn out well. I am flying back to Montana this evening, and I should have a pair of posts in the queue right after that. I think my conversations over the past few days with my host will spark some discussion here.
It might be instructive to take a look at the usenet newsgroup "sci.physics" some time. It once had a reasonable signal-to-noise ratio and was often informative. Over time, it attracted a great number of quirky posters and some real lunatics--to the point where it often seems to contain little more than bizarre theories and flame wars. And that's over such controversies as relativity and quantum mechanics. If (when?) people become widely and deeply concerned about peak oil--so that it really threatens their worldview--I'm afraid EVERYTHING we've seen so far on TOD will seem quaintly genteel and polite.
Mark Folsom
This may be an egaltarian view, but if/when Peak Oil becomes mainstream, the only real solution will be to cut off membership at somepoint, with new viewers only allowed a read only role at the site. Kitco had to do this with their old gold forum. Either that or admins will have to resort to heavy moderation.
Just my opinion - from 14+ years on the net.
Garth
I strongly support the challenging of arguments. By the same token, I strongly condemn attacking posters. I have no problem defending arguments. I should not be required to defend myself as a person though.
The real problem is that the information presented on TOD challenges people's world view. With a profound shortage of cheap, available energy "free market capitalism" founders by the roadside like a car thats out of gas. We're all going to be more impoverished by the standards of 20th Century materialism. Thats not the same as being made poor-we can change a lot by changing the Ugly American view of wealth. This view has been foisted on us by the media in the control of the corporations, and they cannot see how they can profit and remain in control if we follow the obvious plan of WT's to Economise, Localise, Produce.
When somebody challenges a person's worldview they commonly attack the person challenging the view even if they are correct. I'm 55 and remember the hatefulness of the establishment attacks on Dr. Martin Luther King, or anyone who advocated peace. Look at how they still trash-mouth Jane Fonda and others. So get ready, its going to get worse Somehow though Robert, I think you are obstinate enough to take it and even profit from the experience.
I noted in a comment yesterday that there are no credentialed experts on Peak Oil, its still in the realm of self-educated amateurs as almost all creative science is until many years have passed. Darwin didn't have a doctorate in evolutionary biology, Einstein in Physics, Pythagoris in Math, and Marx in Economics. Throwing up a lack of credentials is an ad hominem attack. Your work is your credential, and critics lack that credential.
I did find it interesting that someone I have never heard of launched a personal attack on so many people at once. Makes you wonder if it was calculated to make the targets conclude that posting is simply not worth the hassle.
The other possibility is that people like that don't need to be paid, they're just suckers and toadies. I was at an Iraq War-Social Security "reform" protest the summer before last at an UTMB Auditorium. They flew in Bush and Tom DeLay and hustled them in an entrance which was blocked off three blocks away from the protest, and bussed in a bunch of "counter-protesters from a school 100 miles away-Sam Houston State, who got equal time in spite of our outnumbering them ten to one. These fools were'nt paid, at least in any coin that I would consider valuable. I did tell the leader that if he was so important, how come he wasn't inside with Bush and DeLay. And I'm sure my photo is in some Commie Rat file in Washington right now, possibly matched up with my Viet Nam era files.
This is how I expect we will be treated. Vilified and Ignored until simple geological facts trump their theories. Even then we won't ever be trusted by the Establishment, any more than old SDS folks have been trusted by them 30 years after the end of Civil Rights and Viet Nam. Its just too radical.
I just sure hope I'm being needlessly paranoid.
My lawyer, through a FOIA request, has found my name in a DOD "watch list" database. I'm also on a California National Guard list, according to a friend in the Guard. Recently some government entity crudely attempted to infiltrate an peace organization of which I am a member.
Be aware, be careful, but don't be afraid.
Maybe they just like you alot. I would not be paranoid that your part of some watch list. As long as you don't plan to commit violent acts (ie terrorism, overthrow the gov't), you're in no danager. Personally, I do hope they read and learn from our discussions.
FWIW, a couple years ago, the W administration generated a database of US citizens "likely to be terrorist risks", and who were to be barred from boarding commercial airliners at the gate. Shortly after, the Minnesota StarTribune (the dominant paper in MN) carried a story or two about a spate of elderly people from northern MN barred from boarding airliners under this provision. The barred passengers were never informed how they got on the list. These elders were all US born locals, of Scandinavian (mostly Finnish) extraction. The journalistic spin was to treat it as some light comedy about beaurocratic stupidity.
But these people were young adults during the communist labor movement in nothern Minnesota in the 1930's-50's. I wonder if these elders were bona fide communist organizers in their heyday, and if that was why the W regime put their names in a terrosist data base.
Anybody know any more about this?
Isn't it ridiculous! 40 odd years after the fact the Powers that be still have the names and photographs of the beginning of the counter culture in Texas!
I concluded sometime about 1980 that I was suffering from pot and acid induced paranoia about those years. Then during the current round of protests against the war in Iraq I saw clones of the same spies going around snapping pictures again. Times had changed, the police were now helping the eccentric old folks across the street at protests insted of hitting us with night sticks. I love protests now not because they do much good, but because its old reunion time amoung us elderly hippies.
That same totalitarian mindset is stronger than ever. And these are the people who are what Jeffrey calls the Iron Triangle. And we can laugh about it all we want, but somewhere in Washington are 8 1/2" X 14" manilla files full of photographs with circles and arrows and paragraphs on the back of each one describing our good times in the Summer of Love and subversive involvement in Peak Oil.
We all now know there were no WMDs in Iraq and we know something of the process that imagined them there. It is exactly the same with domestic threats.
You have a file AMPOD. You might not recognize yourself in that file.
I have spent plenty of time dealing with electric utilities and a lot of bad numbers which are used start conversations. My whole point in pointing to Mr. Rapier's post and I've only commented on two of them, is the use of claiming energy expertise as being an oil company employee and I reject that totally, he make that knowledge known amply.
I've never taken a personal shot at Mr. Rapier, I have pointed out on several occasions I don't accept being an employee of an oil company as any conclusive evidence on any matter. I thought yesterday's post in serious bad form in bold.
I don't in anyway mean to be deliberately disruptive or argue to argue, but it'd be nice at some point if people are taken to point on issue they simply admit it, instead of claiming personal attack.
That's not true. In fact, you didn't actually address the facts of my post. You simply argued that this was common knowledge, borderline disinformation, and that you were shocked that the editors allowed it. You falsely claimed that I have claimed expertise in this area. Those ARE personal shots. You wrote this lie:
I've learned a lot of things on this site and its a very important issue, people deserve to be able get the best information possible and not "listen to me I'm oil company employee," and you do that all the time.
This one:
Well don't play an "expert" when you're not
This:
Putting your discovery about how reserves work using the US against the Saud's numbers is to say the least garbage, I'm surprised the editors allow this.
This:
But I think to explain to people how reserves numbers work or don't this post is somewhat irresponsible.
Those are personal attacks fellow. You didn't ever challenge anything in the post. Instead, you took the opportunity to take numerous personal shots at me.
My attack yesterday was definitely a bit personal. And although I regret my incivility, I don't regret the substance.
If you are not an expert on upstream issues, I can't see why you are allowed to publish articles on them. And I can't see why you allow yourself to do it.
Some of us in the cheap seats are going to heckle those who don't know their limits. Make'em pay for wasting our time.
Just go back to your day job, dude, til you get up to speed.
You know, you are smart kid. Someday you'll be worth listening to on world energy issues beyond your narrow areas of expertise. But not yet.
Perhaps you don't understand that with very few exceptions, there are no actual experts here. The posters write on topics of interest, and then discussion is generated. Most of the staff is not actually in the energy business.
Someday you'll be worth listening to on world energy issues beyond your narrow areas of expertise. But not yet.
Given the number of people who actually learned something from what I wrote, I will discount your opinion there.
Q.E.D. That is exactly the admission I was after all along. And now it comes directly from a senior contributor.
Many of the articles on this site hereby discounted.
From now on, I'm here mainly for Leanan's very helpful Drum Beat links (and those provided by others)
Funny thing is that CERA has made the point on more than one occasion that 'peakists' simply were not up to speed on the complexities of reserve growth or the industry in general.
Reluctantly, I am forced to concur that they got that right.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
Funny thing is that CERA has made the point on more than one occasion that 'peakists' simply were not up to speed on the complexities of reserve growth or the industry in general.
Reluctantly, I am forced to concur that they got that right.
Things now become a bit more clear to me.
Given that you were responsible for instigating the personal attacks (Brutus just followed your lead) let's talk about the problem here - one of which seems to be your expectations.
One problem with TOD that I often see is that posters are very tentative about posting - precisely because of the kind of reaction my essay prompted from you. I get e-mails all the time from people saying they don't feel like they have the knowledge to post. That's really tragic, in my opinion. But if we limited discussion to those who are bona fide experts - in that this is what they do for a living - maybe a dozen of us would be posting here. You wouldn't. Brutus wouldn't. Journalists certainly wouldn't have much they could write about.
If I want to learn about solar power, a good way to do this would be to research and post an essay on solar power. That would generate some good discussion, and help further knowledge on the issue. That is the purpose of TOD. The purpose is not for experts to spoon feed you your knowledge, which seems to be what you want.
Despite your comments, my areas of expertise are not narrow. I have a broad refining background, lots of biofuels experience, and I have run a GTL lab. In the energy business, that is pretty broad, and now I am transferring into upstream. I don't know what your expectations of expertise actually are, but there aren't many around here that have worked in so many different areas. I can guarantee you nobody at CERA has.
What you seem to be interested in doing is data mining. You are only looking for things that reinforce your POV. So, you look at my essay - which generated a lot of useful discussion and did in fact educate some people - and say "Aha, you guys are amateurs. I discount all of the articles here." But it seems that you don't in fact apply the same standards to CERA. The folks who work there mostly wouldn't meet the definition of "expert."
I guess the bottom line is that you and I seem to have different standards of what constitutes appropriate behavior. If someone posted something that I thought was common knowledge, or asked a "dumb" question, I certainly wouldn't respond to them in the way you responded to me. You were a jerk. I view the purpose here as one of sharing knowledge and learning. Chastising someone for posting something that you believe was common knowledge - especially given the fact that many people were surprised by the information - is not the way to foster open discussion.
Now just to show you this isn't personal, let's talk a little about reserves and how they do or don't work.
1)The actual process of reserve counting is controversial and there's been plenty of papers written about how it's done. Here's one for example: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/1997/intricate_puzzle_reserves_growth/ m07fa.pdf but let's not get into that.
2)Let's talk about the question of the discovery rates, because no matter how many reserves we supposedly have and how that is accounted, the bigger question is how those reserves are "replaced." Now if you know anything about the oil industry Robert, you know the reserves are constantly being depleted and they're being replaced by new discoveries. Gee! That's how the oil industry has worked, for what, 150 years?
Now here comes Robert Rapier, employee of Chevron(?) and he discovers this is how the oil industry works and he posts as it a major surprise and oh he gets offended that people take him to task for it and instead of owning up to it, he claims he's being attacked personally - boo-hoo.
And on top of it, you try and tie this to some understanding of Saudi Reserves, when a guy like Matt Simmons writes a whole book on the topic, and you want to throw this out as new. Great.